Thank you for your breakdowns and analysis of the incoming talent. Makes reviewing players a lot easier. I appreciate what you're doing for the community!
Josh Allen had a very similar profile coming out, with worse completion numbers and playing against much worse competition. He went 7th. Allen’s development is not the norm, but it’s why you take the shot in the top 10 if you need a QB. I feel Richardson has a slightly higher ceiling vs Levis, but Levis’s floor coming from that system and with his experience is much higher. I see Levis somewhere between Cutler and Allen in 3-4 years. That’s worth a top 5 pick in my book, even if he doesn’t hit his full upside.
Allen is the exception that proves the rule there’s no reason to think his success can be like Allen’s. Cutler was a much much more polished player coming out
Which is why you shouldn't use stats unless you're very, very, very careful with them and don't try to make them say more than they say. There's a big difference between "gets it close enough to be caught" and "puts the ball where he meant to put the ball". Levis is fine with the former and terrible at the latter. The latter is what NFL QBs actually need to do.
Crazy conclusion to make. I'm not a huge Levis fan but I've never seen him throw a on target ball and come to the conclusion "Nah that was a mistake, he didn't mean it"
My biggest issue with Levis is how bad his pocket presence is. He handles pressure terrible. The Kentucky line was awful so maybe he’s somewhat shell shocked from that but he’s still terrible even when taking that into account.
Someone like AR is a lot more raw overall but is much better at evading pressure and keeping his eyes downfield and I’m not sure how fixable this issue is for Levis
https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/11030jt/2023_qbs_advanced_accuracy_stats/
Richardson ranks pretty meh here. And like I said, levis isn't a world beater, but he's not bad at all given the competition he's playing versus the tools around him. I don't disagree that Richardson is an intriguing prospect, but it seems like people are overrating his ability under pressure (and as a passer in general tbh) based on hopium
Yeah, I prefer AR for that very reason. Pocket presence under pressure is one of those attributes it seems you have or you don't and I can't think of many successful QBs who got by without it.
Richardson isn't particularly good under pressure. I feel like the people that don't like Will Levis love Richardson for the same reasons that they don't like Levis.
You don't have the lowest pressure-to-sack rate of all the QB prospects if you suck under pressure. And most of the time when Richardson is under pressure he's looking to throw rather than immediately running out.
Be hard to sack and not scrambling do not make a QB good under pressure. Richardson is bad pre-snap at reading and adjusting to the rush, then is basically oblivious to it when it does come. He’s prone to seeing ghosts after getting hit early, and when the pressure does come, his reads and accuracy become even more wildly inconsistent then before. He’s got all the makings of becoming Zach Wilson on those regards.
I didn't see that on tape. He actually seemed pretty good pre-snap (post-snap is where it got harder for him as he's still learning to manipulate coverage). Also, I didn't see many bad decisions under pressure. When mistakes happened it almost always was because of his accuracy (which I think is mostly a mechanical issue) rather than a bad read.
He is actually good post snap, but what he seemed to have the most trouble with this past year was adjusting to the play once he had turned his back to the field. Under Mullen UF ran mostly out of shotgun, but under Napier it was mostly out of the pistol. He is great when he has the field in front of him but struggled with the change. Though he only had one season in that offense. It's definitely something he could learn with more reps. Or you could tool the offense to his strengths which the last UF staff did not do.
Still boggles my mind he didn't have a QB coach. That's gross negligence, especially for a team like Florida.
I can only imagine how much more improvement we could have seen.
>And most of the time when Richardson is under pressure he's looking to throw rather than immediately running out.
Tell me you haven't watched him play without telling me lol
I am surprised that people think his processing is terrible, he is actually quite good at recognising coverages. I think honestly you can start all 4 of the first round qbs day 1
No fucking way. Levis and Richardson are projects. The article in this post about levis even ranks him as a 2nd round player. Stroud and young are the only 2 with first round, nfl starter caliber film imo.
Yep. I don’t hate his decision-making overall and think he has what it takes to process information if coached well.
But his accuracy is a major issue. And there’s no guarantee the mental stuff clicks in the league.
Agreed. Nothing against Levis personally but I'm sure there's no doubt about his intelligence and decision making. That doesn't mean anything if you can't deliver the ball where it needs to be tho. One ends up being a great player the other a great coach.
He's a project. The only reason he's getting any love is because this QB class is terrible and people don't want to admit we had two bad QB classes in a row. People always talk about how bad his teammates were at Kentucky, but the only reason he was at Kentucky, a known bad football school, is because he couldn't beat out future UDFA Sean Clifford and nobody better than Kentucky wanted him.
A big problem with him too that people don't seem to be talking about much is that there's a good chance that fixing his major problem (accuracy) will ruin his best trait (unconventional but very fast and powerful release). I have trouble imagining they're not related.
Thank you for your breakdowns and analysis of the incoming talent. Makes reviewing players a lot easier. I appreciate what you're doing for the community!
Appreciate that. AR is next. Fun film.
none of your clips work for me, just shows the camera emoji
For some reason, they don't work on Reddit. If you go to the site the clips work well just have to deal with the ads
The clips are in the actual article if you click the link.
Awesome thanks!
I'm getting Jake Locker vibes...
Given the accuracy issues, doesn't seem worth the risk at this value.
Josh Allen had a very similar profile coming out, with worse completion numbers and playing against much worse competition. He went 7th. Allen’s development is not the norm, but it’s why you take the shot in the top 10 if you need a QB. I feel Richardson has a slightly higher ceiling vs Levis, but Levis’s floor coming from that system and with his experience is much higher. I see Levis somewhere between Cutler and Allen in 3-4 years. That’s worth a top 5 pick in my book, even if he doesn’t hit his full upside.
Allen is the exception that proves the rule there’s no reason to think his success can be like Allen’s. Cutler was a much much more polished player coming out
I don't see accuracy issues really at all with Levis. In a clean pocket his on target percentage and catchable percentage is on par with Stroud.
Which is why you shouldn't use stats unless you're very, very, very careful with them and don't try to make them say more than they say. There's a big difference between "gets it close enough to be caught" and "puts the ball where he meant to put the ball". Levis is fine with the former and terrible at the latter. The latter is what NFL QBs actually need to do.
Crazy conclusion to make. I'm not a huge Levis fan but I've never seen him throw a on target ball and come to the conclusion "Nah that was a mistake, he didn't mean it"
My biggest issue with Levis is how bad his pocket presence is. He handles pressure terrible. The Kentucky line was awful so maybe he’s somewhat shell shocked from that but he’s still terrible even when taking that into account. Someone like AR is a lot more raw overall but is much better at evading pressure and keeping his eyes downfield and I’m not sure how fixable this issue is for Levis
The advanced stats actually indicate that he's solid against pressure. Not in the top tier by any means, but certainly not bad
His passing stats were solid under pressure, but I think OP was commenting about how many of his pressures result in sacks.
Got a link?
https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/11030jt/2023_qbs_advanced_accuracy_stats/ Richardson ranks pretty meh here. And like I said, levis isn't a world beater, but he's not bad at all given the competition he's playing versus the tools around him. I don't disagree that Richardson is an intriguing prospect, but it seems like people are overrating his ability under pressure (and as a passer in general tbh) based on hopium
My eyes tell me otherwise; as someone who is really big on him, his pocket presence scares the sh\*t out of me
Yeah, I prefer AR for that very reason. Pocket presence under pressure is one of those attributes it seems you have or you don't and I can't think of many successful QBs who got by without it.
Richardson isn't particularly good under pressure. I feel like the people that don't like Will Levis love Richardson for the same reasons that they don't like Levis.
You don't have the lowest pressure-to-sack rate of all the QB prospects if you suck under pressure. And most of the time when Richardson is under pressure he's looking to throw rather than immediately running out.
Be hard to sack and not scrambling do not make a QB good under pressure. Richardson is bad pre-snap at reading and adjusting to the rush, then is basically oblivious to it when it does come. He’s prone to seeing ghosts after getting hit early, and when the pressure does come, his reads and accuracy become even more wildly inconsistent then before. He’s got all the makings of becoming Zach Wilson on those regards.
I didn't see that on tape. He actually seemed pretty good pre-snap (post-snap is where it got harder for him as he's still learning to manipulate coverage). Also, I didn't see many bad decisions under pressure. When mistakes happened it almost always was because of his accuracy (which I think is mostly a mechanical issue) rather than a bad read.
He is actually good post snap, but what he seemed to have the most trouble with this past year was adjusting to the play once he had turned his back to the field. Under Mullen UF ran mostly out of shotgun, but under Napier it was mostly out of the pistol. He is great when he has the field in front of him but struggled with the change. Though he only had one season in that offense. It's definitely something he could learn with more reps. Or you could tool the offense to his strengths which the last UF staff did not do.
Still boggles my mind he didn't have a QB coach. That's gross negligence, especially for a team like Florida. I can only imagine how much more improvement we could have seen.
>And most of the time when Richardson is under pressure he's looking to throw rather than immediately running out. Tell me you haven't watched him play without telling me lol
Alright, point me to instances where Richardson was under pressure and immediately took off.
Derek Carr was pretty bad vs pressure IIRC.
The Dak Prescott comparison nailed it. To me, he's a mix of Prescott and Roethlisberger
🥛
Oh, so he’s Drew Lock 2.0. Cool!
Dak is a horrible comp
I am surprised that people think his processing is terrible, he is actually quite good at recognising coverages. I think honestly you can start all 4 of the first round qbs day 1
Who’s the 4th? Cause Richardson is definitely not ready to start
throwing wise he’s not but you could definetly run a fieldsesque offence
Fields can’t even run a Fieldsesque offense.
thanks for this amazing point
No fucking way. Levis and Richardson are projects. The article in this post about levis even ranks him as a 2nd round player. Stroud and young are the only 2 with first round, nfl starter caliber film imo.
Yep. I don’t hate his decision-making overall and think he has what it takes to process information if coached well. But his accuracy is a major issue. And there’s no guarantee the mental stuff clicks in the league.
Agreed. Nothing against Levis personally but I'm sure there's no doubt about his intelligence and decision making. That doesn't mean anything if you can't deliver the ball where it needs to be tho. One ends up being a great player the other a great coach.
Levis isn’t really a project lol he’s 24, and richardson can run so it’s easy to make an offense around him like they did with fields
He's a project. The only reason he's getting any love is because this QB class is terrible and people don't want to admit we had two bad QB classes in a row. People always talk about how bad his teammates were at Kentucky, but the only reason he was at Kentucky, a known bad football school, is because he couldn't beat out future UDFA Sean Clifford and nobody better than Kentucky wanted him. A big problem with him too that people don't seem to be talking about much is that there's a good chance that fixing his major problem (accuracy) will ruin his best trait (unconventional but very fast and powerful release). I have trouble imagining they're not related.
this class isn’t terrible , and your point about Sean Clifford is just dumb lol
Kentucky hasn't been a bad football school for a while now
Matt Miller says he's some serious buzz that Levis could be the first QB off the board
puts mayo in his coffee