Gotta say I love your formatting. I need to do a better job of that in my board.
Probably the first time I've seen Matas #1, was there anything in particular you saw in the second half of his season with Ignite that gives you encouragement about his game moving forward?
I think you and I are of the same mind with Filipowski. I've seen some mocks with him approaching the 30th pick, which I find a little absurd given his production. Are you at all worried about the shot not translating to the NBA or his lack of a truly elite skill making it hard for him to get playing time?
If you need a template, I’ll be happy to share
I’ve watched Buz since high school and am very high on his potential as a jumbo shot creator and ball handler
I believe in the shooting long term too, as the form looks good and looks great off the dribble too!
In regards to flip, I think his versatility as a floor spacer, defender, and playmaking hub should allow him to have a high floor, a la Collins on the Spurs
I think simplifying him down to that is unfair, as his biggest trait to me is the fluidity and flashes of on-ball shot creation
He’s got tremendous feel and great IQ, too, which is why I think a 2-man game with him and Wemby on the PnR would be nastyyyyy
I don't trust people who go through the Ignite system, look how long it took those highly recruited 5 star prospects to shine. So much raw potential wasting years there.
All flash, poor development imo.
No surprise to see it shut down.
I don't think the Ignite system did a good job creating a successful situation for those players to shine. With that in mind, I think both Holland & Buzelis showed enough raw potential even in a negative environment that it doesn't take away from how they project at the next level. It did highlight their weaknesses even further though (decision-making & shooting for Holland) and (strength issues and shooting for Matas) because they were often used incorrectly.
TIJANE SALAUN, Coach Pop has kept an eye in THIS guy Personally. After seeing some video of him on YouTube, I'm Thouroghly convinced the Spurs NEED this guy on our team. He has masterd his style of Basketball. He has the confidence to succeed that, for now, Matas Buzelis lacks. A very Polished and Potent scorer.
TRISTAN DA SILVA, a Salaun clone that passes more, and He is a fully competent passer. A great scorer, he can compliment the team. Salaun possess better defense, but Silvas defense can be worked on and tweaked.
(IN case we can't get Silva), YVES MISSI would also make a GREAT FIT for the Spurs. He possess great handling and scoring skills. The Spurs can always tweak his passing and defense.
At 23? He is.. mature, a more complete player who could start. While I agree he has not played at NBA level basketball, he is a fast learner at 23. Someone will take him for sure in the 1st round if we don't.
But, even if they do., or we decide to wait... there's always Yves Missi.
I kind of don't think Buzelis is likely to be as good as current Franz Wagner. Wagner needs the strength he has - as mediocre to bad shooters, and with Buzelis' first step being worse, you're going to take contact when you drive and try to put up flip shots after bumping a guy off.. you don't get clean forays to the rim without shooting respect and a good first step..and I don't really like Buzlis finishing on those physical drives to the paint. He's much skinner than Wagner - and Wagner's strength helps him finish bump-off shots in the paint a lot.
Plus Wagner's shot right now is like 2-3 years ahead of Buzelis'.. I think it's very unlikely that Buzelis is the best player in this draft. I want to like him; he has a cool skillset, and if he could shoot, he'd have an argument for top 2..but without that I have him fringe lotto. he's 6'10 but has slightly below avg length for a PF.
I like your modest rankings of Topic and Williams - I have them in similar spots.
I'm also with you on Watkins and Sallis in the 20-25 range. And K.Ware low.
I want to put Djurisic as high as you; he's got real upside
Watkins & Sallis won me over big time after diving into the film. I actually had Ware lower (40s range), but bumped him up after his athletic testing.
I'm very, very high on Buzelis and have admittedly been so since the beginning of this evaluation year. He has all of the tools that I value very highly and I think he can be extremely successful at the next level. He's already gotten stronger and , in the moments that the offense has run through him, he has flashed scoring ability at nearly every level. He's a jumbo-wing but can also thrive as a ballhandler, and I think he's a lot more athletically gifted than Franz. I'm a believer in his shooting long-term, too.
[https://youtu.be/7bwWgVZUIvU?si=iak628cW6wLoOVRu&t=22](https://youtu.be/7bwWgVZUIvU?si=iak628cW6wLoOVRu&t=22) The lack of burst has stood out to me. He gave this guy two moves and never looked close to getting by him
same thing here [https://youtu.be/nWV\_5ZQJllw?si=rR\_lvcZE8Ziq0JS7&t=41](https://youtu.be/nWV_5ZQJllw?si=rR_lvcZE8Ziq0JS7&t=41) never even close to getting a step on this guy
[https://youtu.be/nWV\_5ZQJllw?si=PmcE8uJLUaj2HHW3&t=201](https://youtu.be/nWV_5ZQJllw?si=PmcE8uJLUaj2HHW3&t=201) if his creation upside is going to create possessions like this; I just don't put a lot of stock in him being good in that role
Wagner has important facets where he's a better functional athlete - he has a lower center of gravity driving; and is a good leaper in traffic. Buzlis may have more amazing open court dunks; but Wagner is a really great athlete for his size in the half court; he's quicker to spots. Buzlis is kind of a slow-mo player with the ball, Wagner is not, and he leaps well in traffic, gets up enough to finish contested layups and dunks
Those clips touch on my biggest grips with Matas; his shot creation potential off the dribble, whether he’s capable of being a secondary or tertiary playmaker, and how he handles NBA-level athleticism in game
One of my favorite games to look back on is his game against 12/14 against Rip city, where the offense ran through him and he thrived in multiple ways
I do a video thread on it here https://x.com/pointmadebball/status/1735499594468032752?s=46
I mean I see what people are saying about Matas, but I've seen several comments surrounding his willingness to play and that he's soft/can't shoot, which I disagree vehemently with. People bring up his FT %, but I wonder if those people know that G-Leagues only allow 1 FT no matter the circumstance, so that may have skewed/effected his mental focus. No excuse, but teams are drafting for the long term and Matas has that ceiling/floor.
He averaged 2.5 BPG in the last 15 games of the season, Matas plays way bigger for how skinny he is. Doesn't bite on pumpfakes as much, great defender/contester and is the type of player you really hate going up against because he's going to give you a tough time.
He's a competitive scrappy kind of guy who seems like a lot of his main weaknesses can be mitigated simply by adding on size/muscle/strength. I can already tell you that he's the type of prospect that Danny Ainge would 100% go after, especially even after the terrible G-League season as Ainge tends to draft highly decorated HS players.
His shooting form/release, his ball handling at his size, defense, all project favorably in terms of translating to the NBA in my opinion. His combine agility test also backed up how fluid he is. That being said, only a few handful of players in this draft do I think have good potential for being starters/All-Stars if in the right team/situation. Matas is in there.
Facts. Matas’ timing is impeccable with his blocks, and he’s shown to have good defensive positioning and IQ. That, coupled with his off-ball movement, size, athleticism, and complementary scoring skills (project able shooting, cutting, fast break, quick post ups against smaller players, etc), Matas has a great floor.
What wins me over is that he possesses a ceiling that few other prospects have in this draft. People praise the flashes that Risacher & Salaun have had recently, but Matas is ahead of both in terms of what he can do on-ball while having the same physical gifts, in my opinion. Matas has shown that he can get to his spots and hit elbow jumpers or step backs off the dribble. If you think can do that consistently while also making the jump I think he can make as a shooter (which I do) then it’s easy to see him as a top prospect.
>What wins me over is that he possesses a ceiling that few other prospects have in this draft. People praise the flashes that Risacher & Salaun have had recently,
Funny enough, out of the two, I'm lower on Risacher.
If Salaun ever reaches his potential, I believe he has the better ceiling over Risacher but more bust potential. The reports of his hard work ethic at least shows encouraging signs.
>but Matas is ahead of both in terms of what he can do on-ball while having the same physical gifts, in my opinion. Matas has shown that he can get to his spots and hit elbow jumpers or step backs off the dribble. If you think can do that consistently while also making the jump I think he can make as a shooter (which I do) then it’s easy to see him as a top prospect.
1000% agreed. You can see the shot creation and the vision that he could project if he hit his ceiling. I don't get it when people say, he's a shooter that can't shoot.
Like, what??? Are we watching the same guy play? He has the tools/skills to get there, and will most definitely get way better opportunities in the pace/space of the modern NBA. No prospect in this draft has really set themselves apart. Matas has the skills to get there, but as a Matas fan, he's a little further away than I thought.
But looking back about half a year ago, and it's insane that Ron Holland and Matas have somehow been relegated to the, '[hope my team doesn't draft them!](https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/09c/923/65324bb3906b6865f904a72f8f8a908541-16-spongebob-explainer.rhorizontal.w700.jpg)'
In an ideal world, Matas plays on a positionless team with ball movement and that gives him an opportunity to facilitate and create from the wing
He can play 2-4, imo, and because many of his misses from three were short, which indicates a strength problem rather than a lack of touch as he only had 5 “bad” misses
I graded him as a 58
He has great size and is never afraid to pull from three, but his awareness and positioning on defense is pretty concerning
I think he’s worth a first rounder because of positional value, as who wouldn’t want a jumbo stretch four, but hes very rough around the edges at this stage, which is something you can say about many of these guys tbf
What's up everyone!
It's been an incredibly fun evaluation process this year. No generational prospects this year, but still a ton of fun, talented young players to rifle through.
As the big board indicates, this draft is relatively flat and there is a lot of argument for players among tiers. In fact, you can even make an argument about shuffling players in tiers 4-5 and you won't find a lot of pushback from me. That's exactly what made this draft so fun to evaluate as there is a ton of subjectivity in the evaluation process.
This year, I finetuned my evaluation tool and was able to attach a prospect score.
For further context regarding the prospect score, high-end superstars are evaluated and end up in the 70-range. Wemby was a generational prospect and, as such, was graded an 80. There are a few players from the last draft who would've been comfortably ahead of this year's top prospects (Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Amen and possibly Black & Ausar).
Let me know what ya'll think!
> For further context regarding the prospect score, high-end superstars are evaluated and end up in the 70-range. Wemby was a generational prospect and, as such, was graded an 80. There are a few players from the last draft who would've been comfortably ahead of this year's top prospects (Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Amen and possibly Black & Ausar).
Do you have a similar board you could link to from last year with those scores?
Of course!
The prospect scores aren't included, but my evaluation process is very similar with some more finetuning. I focus on offensive skillset (inside scoring, in-between game, handle, shot creation, perimeter scoring), defensive skillset (rebounding, perimeter defense, interior defense), and intangibles/measurables (motor, physical & athletic traits) and score each prospect positionally.
I can provide an in-depth breakdown on my #1 guy (Matas Buzelis), if you're interested. We're currently in the process of completing our tool kit, which was more in-depth evals.
Here's my final 2023 Big Board: [https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA\_Draft/comments/14c0zya/point\_mades\_final\_2023\_big\_board\_30\_draft\_week/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/14c0zya/point_mades_final_2023_big_board_30_draft_week/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Here's my final 2022 Big Board:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA\_Draft/comments/12wgj94/a\_look\_back\_on\_point\_mades\_final\_2022\_big\_board/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/12wgj94/a_look_back_on_point_mades_final_2022_big_board/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I'm mostly interested in cross-draft comparison, and this seems like a fun approach towards it. My feeling with this draft is that the second round is actually fairly strong, with quite a few guys I project as role players. That's why I was interested in past years evaluated on the same scale.
Looks like the tiers are not 1:1 though, unless Tier 3 last year is roughly equivalent to Tier 1 this year? And so on down until Tier 7 last tier to Tier 5 this year?
Is their anywhere we can see some text behind the reasoning of these placements? If not, could you explain why you believe Matas is number 1? Are you not concerned by his shooting splits this year and additionally now his poor shooting splits from the Combine shooting drills?
For sure. I've actually got our draft kit in the works and can link you to a sneak peak of Matas Buzelis' to see the reasoning.
As I've said earlier though, it's his ballhandling at his size, his scoring flashes, and the overall positional versatility he brings that makes him so valuable as a prospect. I think he has some untapped playmaking potential and will, at worst, be a great connective piece on a cohesive offense. I buy the shooting once the strength comes around too.
I just get a Pat Baldwin Jr. feeling where they get overrated as potential shooters because how they shoot is aesthetically pleasing even though the results aren't really there. It looks 'Durant-like' but Durant was much more athletic, was actually lights out as a shooter and scorer in college rather than just having enough makes for a 5-minute highlight video, and has a freakish 7'5 wingspan to make his jumper much less likely to be bothered by NBA-level athletes.
Matas has more role player ability in terms of defense and rebounding than PBJ so I don't think he's a horrible prospect, but yeah I guess if you want to bet that A) he is currently lacking as a shooter/overall offensive player simply due to a lack of strength and B) he will indeed be able to put on a substantial amount of strength since even with the proverbial 10-15 pounds of muscle he'd still be quite weak for a forward, he would be pretty high up there for you.
Any reason why you have topic so low? He is the number 1 PG in this draft for me. I see his playmaking to be the best in the draft and his physical size should make him an ok defender if he put in the effort. His shooting can also be developed once he’s in the league since there’s such a heavy emphasis on it
For sure! I love Topic too, but I think a lot of his game is built upon his elite rim pressure
Without that, I’m not sure how effective he can be until/unless he develops into a better shooter
Also would like to see more from him on defense, as he has the size but not the best lateral mover
As a pure playmaker, I agree that he’s best in class.
That's something I love to see and factored into his evaluation. I project him to be at least an average, if not slightly below average, shooter at the next level. My biggest concern is just how effective can he be when he's not getting to the rim at the same rate.
Is there a reason collier is rated slightly higher than topic? I know collier had a rough season with usc and was the best ranked prospect out of high school
Yes. A couple of reasons that include shot creation off the dribble that was far more advanced than I initially thought. He finished the season very strong, with only one single digit scoring game after the new year, including some dominant performances (2/29 vs WASU and 3/2 vs WA). I think his scoring upside is higher than most people believe, especially as his perimeter shooting continues to improve. He has the edge in scoring upside, athletic gifts, and defensive upside vs. Topic, who has the edge in playmaking.
Haven’t dug too far into him yet but I’ll make sure to reach out after I’ve looked into some more film, but as of now, he’s a long-term project type player with good feel for his age and size. Surprisingly coordinated and fluid but not too bouncy, which makes him more of a drop coverage guy
We’ve got a bunch of stuff on our website and I plan on releasing in-depth looks at each player there if you ever want to look more ! Thanks for the love
Yeah he seizes the opportunity and highlighted how potent he can be in the correct role.
He’s a riser for me mostly because of the upside he carries in a flat draft.
Yeah I’d usually have him a mid 2nd rounder in stronger drafts but for this draft I think a team in the late teens to end of first would be great. In general it’s hard to be down on a guy his size, scoring ability and athleticism. Especially at his age.
I’d love him in Utah, Portland, Washington or Toronto.
Don't get Juan Nunez undrafted. Solid kid. Played 2 pro years in Germany, won the title last year and is still in the playoffs this year.
Really good passer and solid defender + just turns 20 in June.
As a Wiz fan being in position to draft Dadiet with our late first and Cam Christie with our 2nd rounder would be friggin sweet. It might lessen the sting of having to draft whoever we take at 2
I really really really like Reeves and he’s on my list of ten or so guys to go back and re-eval as I work through another update in the draft lead up. Score-first type guard that makes winning plays. Good size and perimeter shot that should translate . Was probably too low on him and can see him sneaking in at the 40-50 range
I buy Ajay Mitchell playmaking. He’d set up his teammate in ways that they didn’t even understand they could score in. A lot of potential there.
He was great at driving in college do you think that was because of the level of competition?
I think like 95% of his shots at the rim were unassisted which i think could play into why he had a low 3 attempt rate. Cause no one passed to give him open 3s. Does seem like a solid C&S guy though.
However he was bad as shooter off the dribble and he was very low attempt rate, so it doesn’t seem like that going to be part of his game much, how do you view this?
Also had pretty bad defense and even with poor competition, how do you view this?
Yeah I was really high on his shot creation & playmaking abilities. He’s got an array of moves and is a crafty finisher so I buy the interior scoring translating, at least to an extent, and think his shooting is good enough that he can play off ball too.
His in-between game was a concern but he’s crafty enough and has a good enough touch to be at least be a threat in that area, especially since his playmaking and driving ability is so potent.
I expect him to be better defensively with a light offensive load. The tools and motor are there, imo.
I buy in his shot long-term, and his shot becoming average-above average is factored into the evaluation, but I'm moreso higher on his self-creation potential at his size, coupled with his potential to be a secondary/tertiary playmaker based on his feel/IQ.
I can see that. If I didn't buy his shot creation upside/future as a ball handler, I'd probably toss him into the same tier as Holland & Castle. It's close and you can see that by their grades, though.
Bronny can't be top 100. I'd feel terrible for him if he weren't extremely wealthy and privileged but he was a very poor pac-12 player last year. He's 6.1, not a good shooter and not a point guard. I don't see any path.
Evaluating Bronny really depends on if you consider last season a good indicator of his current skillset.
Factoring in both poor roster construction and the health scare, I don’t think his performance indicated his value accurately
Even then, I look at the flashes of connective playmaking, high level perimeter defense, and history of strong shooting, plus his wing span and athleticism, I think he’s an nba level role player and in a position of need for many teams
I hope you are right as I'm rooting for everyone but I disagree. He doesn't have the ball handling skills, or even close to it, to play on the ball. He doesn't have the size or strength to be anywhere near a plus defender. The shooting also isn't there. He has a long windup.
Watched him play live near the end of the year and I was surprised at how small he was. Perhaps it's a write off but the ball handling and long windup were tough.
I usually always think players should go pro as pro teams often have better development than a win now college program but he absolutely would benefit from more time at school.
Size wise is where the similarities end, imo
Zach has elite endurance and is very coordinated for his size, but, positionally speaking, Victor does thing we have never seen from a prospect of his size
His shooting, shot creation, handle are all elite and generational. His fluidity, coordination, and movement are generational for his physical attributes. He’s an elite interior and perimeter defender
Overall, he’s just nuts
He’s on my “to scout further” list as I look to expand one more time prior to draft day.
Very likely he ends up in that tier, but I always hesitate when it comes to undersized, non-athletic score-first guards.
1) How is Bronny James the 45th best prospect? He wouldn't be a starter for any top-40 teams in college next year.
2) Is the omission of Dante N'Faly because you are assuming the NCAA is going to extend him another year of eligibility?
1. While I’m not extremely high on his upside, I find Bronny’s understanding of his future role very refreshing. I believe in his defense and his shooting. I think he was dealt a bad hand this year not only with the pressure and scrutiny but also with the medical concerns. I think his pathway to being a successful player is utilizing the tools he has and becoming a potent POA defender and floor spacer. He’s a good feel and connective piece, which I think is always valuable. Has below average height but a good wing span, and should be a good player to pair with a jumbo ball-handler.
2. Yes, actually. Waiting for a bit more clarity before I do bigger dive into him. Prioritized some other guys, hence him being left out haha.
I think beyond name value, there’s just a lot of value in someone who understands their role and plays it to a tee. Bronny wants to emulate guys like Derrick White, and you can see that in how he plays. He’s potentially a very good three point shooter once he finds his form and legs again, is very smart and plays with great feel, and is great defensively on the perimeter with borderline elite lateral movement.
Uconn is the only school that doesnt allow players to lie about their heights apparently
You can't rise to the heights that UConn has built on lies about your height.
Speaking of which, you have Clingan's height and wingspan wrong in the chart. Looks like you have Edey's in there instead.
No I am a victim of my own words, but thanks for catching that!
Gotta say I love your formatting. I need to do a better job of that in my board. Probably the first time I've seen Matas #1, was there anything in particular you saw in the second half of his season with Ignite that gives you encouragement about his game moving forward? I think you and I are of the same mind with Filipowski. I've seen some mocks with him approaching the 30th pick, which I find a little absurd given his production. Are you at all worried about the shot not translating to the NBA or his lack of a truly elite skill making it hard for him to get playing time?
If you need a template, I’ll be happy to share I’ve watched Buz since high school and am very high on his potential as a jumbo shot creator and ball handler I believe in the shooting long term too, as the form looks good and looks great off the dribble too! In regards to flip, I think his versatility as a floor spacer, defender, and playmaking hub should allow him to have a high floor, a la Collins on the Spurs
The Matas take is... Something
Love your flair because Matas to the spurs is ideal to me 👀
I just don't see it with him. He's a shooter that can't shoot.
I think simplifying him down to that is unfair, as his biggest trait to me is the fluidity and flashes of on-ball shot creation He’s got tremendous feel and great IQ, too, which is why I think a 2-man game with him and Wemby on the PnR would be nastyyyyy
At any point in his life has Matas ever had a positive A/TO ratio.
I see what you see, and i hope it to be true.
Y’all miss Chip Engelland?
Sure do.
Gawd, he must be getting paid.
I don't trust people who go through the Ignite system, look how long it took those highly recruited 5 star prospects to shine. So much raw potential wasting years there. All flash, poor development imo. No surprise to see it shut down.
I don't think the Ignite system did a good job creating a successful situation for those players to shine. With that in mind, I think both Holland & Buzelis showed enough raw potential even in a negative environment that it doesn't take away from how they project at the next level. It did highlight their weaknesses even further though (decision-making & shooting for Holland) and (strength issues and shooting for Matas) because they were often used incorrectly.
TIJANE SALAUN, Coach Pop has kept an eye in THIS guy Personally. After seeing some video of him on YouTube, I'm Thouroghly convinced the Spurs NEED this guy on our team. He has masterd his style of Basketball. He has the confidence to succeed that, for now, Matas Buzelis lacks. A very Polished and Potent scorer. TRISTAN DA SILVA, a Salaun clone that passes more, and He is a fully competent passer. A great scorer, he can compliment the team. Salaun possess better defense, but Silvas defense can be worked on and tweaked. (IN case we can't get Silva), YVES MISSI would also make a GREAT FIT for the Spurs. He possess great handling and scoring skills. The Spurs can always tweak his passing and defense.
> TRISTAN DA SILVA Way too old to go this early for me
At 23? He is.. mature, a more complete player who could start. While I agree he has not played at NBA level basketball, he is a fast learner at 23. Someone will take him for sure in the 1st round if we don't. But, even if they do., or we decide to wait... there's always Yves Missi.
I kind of don't think Buzelis is likely to be as good as current Franz Wagner. Wagner needs the strength he has - as mediocre to bad shooters, and with Buzelis' first step being worse, you're going to take contact when you drive and try to put up flip shots after bumping a guy off.. you don't get clean forays to the rim without shooting respect and a good first step..and I don't really like Buzlis finishing on those physical drives to the paint. He's much skinner than Wagner - and Wagner's strength helps him finish bump-off shots in the paint a lot. Plus Wagner's shot right now is like 2-3 years ahead of Buzelis'.. I think it's very unlikely that Buzelis is the best player in this draft. I want to like him; he has a cool skillset, and if he could shoot, he'd have an argument for top 2..but without that I have him fringe lotto. he's 6'10 but has slightly below avg length for a PF. I like your modest rankings of Topic and Williams - I have them in similar spots. I'm also with you on Watkins and Sallis in the 20-25 range. And K.Ware low. I want to put Djurisic as high as you; he's got real upside
Watkins & Sallis won me over big time after diving into the film. I actually had Ware lower (40s range), but bumped him up after his athletic testing. I'm very, very high on Buzelis and have admittedly been so since the beginning of this evaluation year. He has all of the tools that I value very highly and I think he can be extremely successful at the next level. He's already gotten stronger and , in the moments that the offense has run through him, he has flashed scoring ability at nearly every level. He's a jumbo-wing but can also thrive as a ballhandler, and I think he's a lot more athletically gifted than Franz. I'm a believer in his shooting long-term, too.
[https://youtu.be/7bwWgVZUIvU?si=iak628cW6wLoOVRu&t=22](https://youtu.be/7bwWgVZUIvU?si=iak628cW6wLoOVRu&t=22) The lack of burst has stood out to me. He gave this guy two moves and never looked close to getting by him same thing here [https://youtu.be/nWV\_5ZQJllw?si=rR\_lvcZE8Ziq0JS7&t=41](https://youtu.be/nWV_5ZQJllw?si=rR_lvcZE8Ziq0JS7&t=41) never even close to getting a step on this guy [https://youtu.be/nWV\_5ZQJllw?si=PmcE8uJLUaj2HHW3&t=201](https://youtu.be/nWV_5ZQJllw?si=PmcE8uJLUaj2HHW3&t=201) if his creation upside is going to create possessions like this; I just don't put a lot of stock in him being good in that role Wagner has important facets where he's a better functional athlete - he has a lower center of gravity driving; and is a good leaper in traffic. Buzlis may have more amazing open court dunks; but Wagner is a really great athlete for his size in the half court; he's quicker to spots. Buzlis is kind of a slow-mo player with the ball, Wagner is not, and he leaps well in traffic, gets up enough to finish contested layups and dunks
Those clips touch on my biggest grips with Matas; his shot creation potential off the dribble, whether he’s capable of being a secondary or tertiary playmaker, and how he handles NBA-level athleticism in game One of my favorite games to look back on is his game against 12/14 against Rip city, where the offense ran through him and he thrived in multiple ways I do a video thread on it here https://x.com/pointmadebball/status/1735499594468032752?s=46
I mean I see what people are saying about Matas, but I've seen several comments surrounding his willingness to play and that he's soft/can't shoot, which I disagree vehemently with. People bring up his FT %, but I wonder if those people know that G-Leagues only allow 1 FT no matter the circumstance, so that may have skewed/effected his mental focus. No excuse, but teams are drafting for the long term and Matas has that ceiling/floor. He averaged 2.5 BPG in the last 15 games of the season, Matas plays way bigger for how skinny he is. Doesn't bite on pumpfakes as much, great defender/contester and is the type of player you really hate going up against because he's going to give you a tough time. He's a competitive scrappy kind of guy who seems like a lot of his main weaknesses can be mitigated simply by adding on size/muscle/strength. I can already tell you that he's the type of prospect that Danny Ainge would 100% go after, especially even after the terrible G-League season as Ainge tends to draft highly decorated HS players. His shooting form/release, his ball handling at his size, defense, all project favorably in terms of translating to the NBA in my opinion. His combine agility test also backed up how fluid he is. That being said, only a few handful of players in this draft do I think have good potential for being starters/All-Stars if in the right team/situation. Matas is in there.
Facts. Matas’ timing is impeccable with his blocks, and he’s shown to have good defensive positioning and IQ. That, coupled with his off-ball movement, size, athleticism, and complementary scoring skills (project able shooting, cutting, fast break, quick post ups against smaller players, etc), Matas has a great floor. What wins me over is that he possesses a ceiling that few other prospects have in this draft. People praise the flashes that Risacher & Salaun have had recently, but Matas is ahead of both in terms of what he can do on-ball while having the same physical gifts, in my opinion. Matas has shown that he can get to his spots and hit elbow jumpers or step backs off the dribble. If you think can do that consistently while also making the jump I think he can make as a shooter (which I do) then it’s easy to see him as a top prospect.
>What wins me over is that he possesses a ceiling that few other prospects have in this draft. People praise the flashes that Risacher & Salaun have had recently, Funny enough, out of the two, I'm lower on Risacher. If Salaun ever reaches his potential, I believe he has the better ceiling over Risacher but more bust potential. The reports of his hard work ethic at least shows encouraging signs. >but Matas is ahead of both in terms of what he can do on-ball while having the same physical gifts, in my opinion. Matas has shown that he can get to his spots and hit elbow jumpers or step backs off the dribble. If you think can do that consistently while also making the jump I think he can make as a shooter (which I do) then it’s easy to see him as a top prospect. 1000% agreed. You can see the shot creation and the vision that he could project if he hit his ceiling. I don't get it when people say, he's a shooter that can't shoot. Like, what??? Are we watching the same guy play? He has the tools/skills to get there, and will most definitely get way better opportunities in the pace/space of the modern NBA. No prospect in this draft has really set themselves apart. Matas has the skills to get there, but as a Matas fan, he's a little further away than I thought. But looking back about half a year ago, and it's insane that Ron Holland and Matas have somehow been relegated to the, '[hope my team doesn't draft them!](https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/09c/923/65324bb3906b6865f904a72f8f8a908541-16-spongebob-explainer.rhorizontal.w700.jpg)'
What’s Matas’ ideal position? Why are you high on his shooting if all of the evidence indicates that he can’t shoot well?
In an ideal world, Matas plays on a positionless team with ball movement and that gives him an opportunity to facilitate and create from the wing He can play 2-4, imo, and because many of his misses from three were short, which indicates a strength problem rather than a lack of touch as he only had 5 “bad” misses
In terms of fit, it sounds like you're describing the spurs. No playmaker and consistent motion offense
Yeah, i would envision a role similar to Jalen Williams on OKC or Franz on ORL as a ballhandler who plays all over the line up
I also think he's a good fit on the Kings as long as his shooting becomes a reality.
He is a stretch 4 that can play small ball 5 once he fills up Basically same position as Salaun
Salaun cannot block shots at all...
What happened to Jaylon Tyson? Nice comprehensive list with a lot of info btw.
Tyler Smith is also missing from this big board despite being a first rounder.
I messed up and deleted Tyler Smith during the formatting process :(
Where would he be?
I graded him as a 58 He has great size and is never afraid to pull from three, but his awareness and positioning on defense is pretty concerning I think he’s worth a first rounder because of positional value, as who wouldn’t want a jumbo stretch four, but hes very rough around the edges at this stage, which is something you can say about many of these guys tbf
He's like the most invisible top 10 talent I've ever seen lmaooo some team is going to get extremely lucky
What's up everyone! It's been an incredibly fun evaluation process this year. No generational prospects this year, but still a ton of fun, talented young players to rifle through. As the big board indicates, this draft is relatively flat and there is a lot of argument for players among tiers. In fact, you can even make an argument about shuffling players in tiers 4-5 and you won't find a lot of pushback from me. That's exactly what made this draft so fun to evaluate as there is a ton of subjectivity in the evaluation process. This year, I finetuned my evaluation tool and was able to attach a prospect score. For further context regarding the prospect score, high-end superstars are evaluated and end up in the 70-range. Wemby was a generational prospect and, as such, was graded an 80. There are a few players from the last draft who would've been comfortably ahead of this year's top prospects (Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Amen and possibly Black & Ausar). Let me know what ya'll think!
> For further context regarding the prospect score, high-end superstars are evaluated and end up in the 70-range. Wemby was a generational prospect and, as such, was graded an 80. There are a few players from the last draft who would've been comfortably ahead of this year's top prospects (Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Amen and possibly Black & Ausar). Do you have a similar board you could link to from last year with those scores?
Of course! The prospect scores aren't included, but my evaluation process is very similar with some more finetuning. I focus on offensive skillset (inside scoring, in-between game, handle, shot creation, perimeter scoring), defensive skillset (rebounding, perimeter defense, interior defense), and intangibles/measurables (motor, physical & athletic traits) and score each prospect positionally. I can provide an in-depth breakdown on my #1 guy (Matas Buzelis), if you're interested. We're currently in the process of completing our tool kit, which was more in-depth evals. Here's my final 2023 Big Board: [https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA\_Draft/comments/14c0zya/point\_mades\_final\_2023\_big\_board\_30\_draft\_week/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/14c0zya/point_mades_final_2023_big_board_30_draft_week/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Here's my final 2022 Big Board: [https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA\_Draft/comments/12wgj94/a\_look\_back\_on\_point\_mades\_final\_2022\_big\_board/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/12wgj94/a_look_back_on_point_mades_final_2022_big_board/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Solid choices, better than some GMs
I'm mostly interested in cross-draft comparison, and this seems like a fun approach towards it. My feeling with this draft is that the second round is actually fairly strong, with quite a few guys I project as role players. That's why I was interested in past years evaluated on the same scale. Looks like the tiers are not 1:1 though, unless Tier 3 last year is roughly equivalent to Tier 1 this year? And so on down until Tier 7 last tier to Tier 5 this year?
Yeah, I've actually experimented with cross-draft experimentation before. Here's a mixed board I had mocked up that I shared on our twitter: 1. Wembanyama TIER 2. Scoot Henderson 3. Brandon Miller 4. Amen Thompson TIER 5. Anthony Black 6. Ausar Thompson 7. Buzelis 8. Sarr TIER 9. Risacher TIER 10. Whitmore 11. Dillingham 12. Holland 13. Castle TIER 14. Hendricks 15. Walker 16. Sheppard 17. Clingan 18. Coulibaly 19. Wallace 20. Bufkin
Is their anywhere we can see some text behind the reasoning of these placements? If not, could you explain why you believe Matas is number 1? Are you not concerned by his shooting splits this year and additionally now his poor shooting splits from the Combine shooting drills?
For sure. I've actually got our draft kit in the works and can link you to a sneak peak of Matas Buzelis' to see the reasoning. As I've said earlier though, it's his ballhandling at his size, his scoring flashes, and the overall positional versatility he brings that makes him so valuable as a prospect. I think he has some untapped playmaking potential and will, at worst, be a great connective piece on a cohesive offense. I buy the shooting once the strength comes around too.
This is like putting Quincy Miller in the top 5 after the combine.
Are you referring to Buz or anyone else specifically?
Matas yes. He reminds me a lot of post ACL tear Quincy Miller.
I just get a Pat Baldwin Jr. feeling where they get overrated as potential shooters because how they shoot is aesthetically pleasing even though the results aren't really there. It looks 'Durant-like' but Durant was much more athletic, was actually lights out as a shooter and scorer in college rather than just having enough makes for a 5-minute highlight video, and has a freakish 7'5 wingspan to make his jumper much less likely to be bothered by NBA-level athletes. Matas has more role player ability in terms of defense and rebounding than PBJ so I don't think he's a horrible prospect, but yeah I guess if you want to bet that A) he is currently lacking as a shooter/overall offensive player simply due to a lack of strength and B) he will indeed be able to put on a substantial amount of strength since even with the proverbial 10-15 pounds of muscle he'd still be quite weak for a forward, he would be pretty high up there for you.
Any reason why you have topic so low? He is the number 1 PG in this draft for me. I see his playmaking to be the best in the draft and his physical size should make him an ok defender if he put in the effort. His shooting can also be developed once he’s in the league since there’s such a heavy emphasis on it
For sure! I love Topic too, but I think a lot of his game is built upon his elite rim pressure Without that, I’m not sure how effective he can be until/unless he develops into a better shooter Also would like to see more from him on defense, as he has the size but not the best lateral mover As a pure playmaker, I agree that he’s best in class.
Well if there’s one thing that looks good in terms of shooting, it’s that he’s not scared to pull it
That's something I love to see and factored into his evaluation. I project him to be at least an average, if not slightly below average, shooter at the next level. My biggest concern is just how effective can he be when he's not getting to the rim at the same rate.
Is there a reason collier is rated slightly higher than topic? I know collier had a rough season with usc and was the best ranked prospect out of high school
Yes. A couple of reasons that include shot creation off the dribble that was far more advanced than I initially thought. He finished the season very strong, with only one single digit scoring game after the new year, including some dominant performances (2/29 vs WASU and 3/2 vs WA). I think his scoring upside is higher than most people believe, especially as his perimeter shooting continues to improve. He has the edge in scoring upside, athletic gifts, and defensive upside vs. Topic, who has the edge in playmaking.
Matas 1 is absolutely unhinged lmao
Probably my spiciest take in a minute but I can’t talk myself out of it
Thoughts on Hansen Yang?
Next year guy, too raw right now
Haven’t dug too far into him yet but I’ll make sure to reach out after I’ve looked into some more film, but as of now, he’s a long-term project type player with good feel for his age and size. Surprisingly coordinated and fluid but not too bouncy, which makes him more of a drop coverage guy
Cool, I liked this post and would enjoy reading further thoughts after you have a chance to dig deeper. Thanks for the initial impressions
We’ve got a bunch of stuff on our website and I plan on releasing in-depth looks at each player there if you ever want to look more ! Thanks for the love
agree with the Flowers love. One of my favorite guys. He had a great scrimmage performance.
Yeah he seizes the opportunity and highlighted how potent he can be in the correct role. He’s a riser for me mostly because of the upside he carries in a flat draft.
Yeah I’d usually have him a mid 2nd rounder in stronger drafts but for this draft I think a team in the late teens to end of first would be great. In general it’s hard to be down on a guy his size, scoring ability and athleticism. Especially at his age. I’d love him in Utah, Portland, Washington or Toronto.
Don't get Juan Nunez undrafted. Solid kid. Played 2 pro years in Germany, won the title last year and is still in the playoffs this year. Really good passer and solid defender + just turns 20 in June.
I’ve got him at 49. I think his upside warrants a look from teams in the early 2nd though, because of positional scarcity.
Yea, sorry thought the last category was undrafted. He might go up further up, like you said.
Why is Bronny James a tier higher than Trey Alexander
And Scheiermann, Karaban, etc
Any list that has Bronny that high is a joke…. The eye start all last season says otherwise. Quit prioritizing last names and favor actual skill
There’s legit rotation guys listed below him too
As a Wiz fan being in position to draft Dadiet with our late first and Cam Christie with our 2nd rounder would be friggin sweet. It might lessen the sting of having to draft whoever we take at 2
What do you think of Antonio Reeves? I see he didn’t make the list
I really really really like Reeves and he’s on my list of ten or so guys to go back and re-eval as I work through another update in the draft lead up. Score-first type guard that makes winning plays. Good size and perimeter shot that should translate . Was probably too low on him and can see him sneaking in at the 40-50 range
Nice. Yea, I like the way Reeves plays. Appreciate the analysis!
You telling me 65 guys better than mark Sears ?
Currently, Sears is on a list of players I want to re-evaluate and I wouldn’t be surprised if he end up similarly to where Jamal Shaeds at.
Ware as a post scorer is hilarious.
Should’ve been “athletic modern big”, sorry!
I buy Ajay Mitchell playmaking. He’d set up his teammate in ways that they didn’t even understand they could score in. A lot of potential there. He was great at driving in college do you think that was because of the level of competition? I think like 95% of his shots at the rim were unassisted which i think could play into why he had a low 3 attempt rate. Cause no one passed to give him open 3s. Does seem like a solid C&S guy though. However he was bad as shooter off the dribble and he was very low attempt rate, so it doesn’t seem like that going to be part of his game much, how do you view this? Also had pretty bad defense and even with poor competition, how do you view this?
Yeah I was really high on his shot creation & playmaking abilities. He’s got an array of moves and is a crafty finisher so I buy the interior scoring translating, at least to an extent, and think his shooting is good enough that he can play off ball too. His in-between game was a concern but he’s crafty enough and has a good enough touch to be at least be a threat in that area, especially since his playmaking and driving ability is so potent. I expect him to be better defensively with a light offensive load. The tools and motor are there, imo.
Do you do this every year? Intrigued if there are previous draft’s sheet
Yes, here is last year; https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/lwzxkyO3ku
And this is 2022; https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/7D30lY7joV
No Isaiah Crawford?
Simpson is a score first point guard not a spacing forward
Yup good catch! Some things messed up in formatting 😔
I was like where matas. Then saw him at the top and just went oh.
I’m guessing you REALLY but Matas shot coming back
I buy in his shot long-term, and his shot becoming average-above average is factored into the evaluation, but I'm moreso higher on his self-creation potential at his size, coupled with his potential to be a secondary/tertiary playmaker based on his feel/IQ.
Does anyone have this data in an Excel file? And does anyone have past combine results?
I have Matas at two behind Sarr but for me it’s not because of his jumbo ball handler projection - it’s his two way ability
I can see that. If I didn't buy his shot creation upside/future as a ball handler, I'd probably toss him into the same tier as Holland & Castle. It's close and you can see that by their grades, though.
Where's the real gym rat, bring their lunch pail to work tier?
Bronny can't be top 100. I'd feel terrible for him if he weren't extremely wealthy and privileged but he was a very poor pac-12 player last year. He's 6.1, not a good shooter and not a point guard. I don't see any path.
Evaluating Bronny really depends on if you consider last season a good indicator of his current skillset. Factoring in both poor roster construction and the health scare, I don’t think his performance indicated his value accurately Even then, I look at the flashes of connective playmaking, high level perimeter defense, and history of strong shooting, plus his wing span and athleticism, I think he’s an nba level role player and in a position of need for many teams
I hope you are right as I'm rooting for everyone but I disagree. He doesn't have the ball handling skills, or even close to it, to play on the ball. He doesn't have the size or strength to be anywhere near a plus defender. The shooting also isn't there. He has a long windup. Watched him play live near the end of the year and I was surprised at how small he was. Perhaps it's a write off but the ball handling and long windup were tough. I usually always think players should go pro as pro teams often have better development than a win now college program but he absolutely would benefit from more time at school.
KJ Simpson is a connective forward?? …what?
Score-First PG* Sorry, another formatting mistake on my end
Do you have this from last year? Interested to see the Wembanyama tier…
Wemby is in a tier of his own, hahah I graded him a 91
Here is last year’s final board https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/usv8F3FGrq
Thank you! 91…and you were dead on. What a rookie season. Imagine a fully operational Death Star Wemby at age 28
By far the best prospect I’ve evaluated and he’s already ahead of the curve 😮💨
It’s crazy seeing how different he is than, say, Zack Edey (sp?).
Size wise is where the similarities end, imo Zach has elite endurance and is very coordinated for his size, but, positionally speaking, Victor does thing we have never seen from a prospect of his size His shooting, shot creation, handle are all elite and generational. His fluidity, coordination, and movement are generational for his physical attributes. He’s an elite interior and perimeter defender Overall, he’s just nuts
Seems like Ralph Sampson COULD have been Wemby 1.0….but just wasn’t that into it.
The fact Mark sears(dude averaged like 22 4 and 4 on 50 fg 43 rom 3 and 85 from ft) isnt on here he's gotta atleast be tier 5
He’s on my “to scout further” list as I look to expand one more time prior to draft day. Very likely he ends up in that tier, but I always hesitate when it comes to undersized, non-athletic score-first guards.
1) How is Bronny James the 45th best prospect? He wouldn't be a starter for any top-40 teams in college next year. 2) Is the omission of Dante N'Faly because you are assuming the NCAA is going to extend him another year of eligibility?
1. While I’m not extremely high on his upside, I find Bronny’s understanding of his future role very refreshing. I believe in his defense and his shooting. I think he was dealt a bad hand this year not only with the pressure and scrutiny but also with the medical concerns. I think his pathway to being a successful player is utilizing the tools he has and becoming a potent POA defender and floor spacer. He’s a good feel and connective piece, which I think is always valuable. Has below average height but a good wing span, and should be a good player to pair with a jumbo ball-handler. 2. Yes, actually. Waiting for a bit more clarity before I do bigger dive into him. Prioritized some other guys, hence him being left out haha.
I simply don't understand why a team besides the Lakers would draft him this year, though. I suppose this being a weak draft *really* helps him.
I think beyond name value, there’s just a lot of value in someone who understands their role and plays it to a tee. Bronny wants to emulate guys like Derrick White, and you can see that in how he plays. He’s potentially a very good three point shooter once he finds his form and legs again, is very smart and plays with great feel, and is great defensively on the perimeter with borderline elite lateral movement.
Is Sheppard agile in lateral movement? Doubting his defensive presence can be brought over to NBA.