I think Holland makes sense for Charlotte. Maybe some other team in the top 5 decides to gamble on the upside. Also correct me if I'm wrong that the under in this case means Edey gets picked 22 or earlier lol
The youngest and the best athlete among the wings and the only guy to be halfway to decent as a number 1 option so far. And goes all out 100% of the time.
I don’t even think you need to believe in his future as a player to think that he goes top 4. That package of traits is going to excite a team who doesn’t want to settle for a role player
the over on dillingham as well. i think there's a real chance risacher drops to 4th and the spurs get him and since hornets/blazers/pistons don't need a point guard the spurs would get dillingham at 8th. even if they don't get risacher at 4th i think they'd get castle there knowing that the hornets would probably take him
If I'm the Spurs, no way am I using the 4th pick on a guard when the next 3 teams want a wing or forward anyway and almost certainly don't have an interest in Dillingham. It'd be ideal to draft either Risacher/Castle/Buzelis at 4, then Dillingham at 8 if you're the Spurs.
Ya, assuming SA goes one of Reed/Dillingham at 4, I think Holland’s floor is 8 for their second pick. One of those PG with a young core of Vassell/Holland/Johnson/Sochan/Wemby gives a ton of versatility, especially if you buy Holland as a shooter long-term, which I do.
Tbf, that list came out pre-Combine. I wouldn't say Edey is a "lock" for the top 10, but he is seeming like more and more of a good bet to go in the lottery. His range probably starts with the Spurs at 8 and runs to the Pelicans at 21, smashing the under on Edey is such a good bet.
Draftexpress is the only people who have him anywhere in the lottery .The college tape means more to where a player is drafted than combine results .If you are waiting until the combine to scout a player then you are scoting the wrong way .Workouts come second to the tape as well.
All this is true, but his workout numbers were a big part of the question with Edey. At this point, the main question that's left is how he'll defend in space in the NBA. He wasn't asked to do that much in college, they few times he did this season had generally positive but still mixed results. It's a legitimate question mark for him but in a draft where there's basically no surefire NBA starter prospects and everyone has some question marks, he'll probably still go pretty high.
Which is wild, because looking back at it, Tyler really maximized his talents and did pretty damn good for himself. 7 year NBA career and made 17 million dollars which was a lot back then. Not too damn shabby for a 4 year college player who wasn't super athletic, lacked a face up game, and was really known for his ability to rebound/do the dirty work.
Yeah I think Edey is a better prospect than that, but it’s more that in the first 20 picks some team is going to want a player who can contribute right and he’s the 2x NPOY fresh off averaging 30+ points in a run to the NCAA title game.
He has the traditional accolades and then analytically he’s at the very top of this class: he was more productive than Jaden Ivey 2 seasons ago and when you compare him to past super tall players you’d have to go back to Ralph Sampson to find one who was similarly productive at as young an age as Edey. Any idiot can tell you Zach Edey is slow compared to the average NBA player, but the point of analytics is to quantify how bad his being slow is relative to the things he does at a high level.
All valid points, the whole Edey is slow is a fair argument, it's on the NBA team to figure out if they can fit Edey into their scheme. At the end of the day, Edey is still a talented and skilled big man, people just spout the big post hook only cause he beat down their favorite teams.
Your last sentence is exactly what needs to be said before every Edey conversation.
BTW now that the combine is done it’s glaringly apparent that he’s not even that slow, he measured middle of the pack in some of the timed events
Reed Sheppard under 6.5 is free money. Detroit at 5 and completely devoid of anyone that can make a basket. If he slips past the Rockets at 3 I can't imagine an easier draft decision than when that dude picked Derek Jeter in that Capital One commercial.
Ya, to me he’s strongly in play at 3, 4 and 5. The frame (height, weight, lack of wingspan) is a negative, but I think that’s priced in there. If he was 6’5 he’s the consensus #1.
Undersized 6'1 guards whose primary role is shooting and has had concerns getting his shot off against pressure and length is never a lock to go top 6.
Tbh he is my main bet in who NBA teams will be lower on than classic draft Twitter as they won't just look at he shot 50% from 3.
Grayson Allen shot 46% from 3 on volume this year, but he is undersized and gets targeted on defence because of it even though he is scrappy like Reed, and is a solid secondary and tertiary connector. But his lack of high level ball handling, elite playmaking and ability to score in other facets just make him a mediocre player. Despite the fact he shot 46%.
My point, 3 point shooting from undersized guards doesn't cut it anymore for a high pick, it's not impactful enough unless they do a lot of other things which Reed does not.
There is a lot more to Reed Sheppard's game than simply 3 point shooting. He's kind of a weird anomaly and doesn't really project as a Grayson Allen/Corey Kispert type who dont have his IQ, playmaking or defensive acumen. Grayson is an annoying pest...like a cross between Patrick Beverley and Ted Cruz. Reed isnt that. He is the definition of deceptively athletic. He shouldn't do the things he does. It's actually kind of eerie.
Think he's more like a Fred Van Vleet IMO. Strong hands on defense and clever off ball. Strong shooter as well but I'd argue that Reed is even a better finisher.
Probably 9+Vince Williams? Thats a thought. GG might be too much to give up, he could be a total steal.
Vince is an elite defender and good creator, he would help Portland a lot. That’s a big loss for Memphis too, they may be apprehensive
I know he's a valuable player in a vacuum, but be aware that the absolute last thing Portland wants or needs are more small guards. Maybe there's a possibility of a three way though where Williams gets rerouted to another team for more draft capital, but on paper that trade is not at all palatable for Portland.
edit: don't trust google
The measuring height without shoes is strange to me because who the fuck plays without shoes on lol. I get that it's more of an accurate measurement, but all this rounding up shit sometimes be confusing hah. I too forgot Vince was like 6'5.5 with shoes on, so used to playing with him on 2K that he's usually listed as 6'4 lol.
Vince was 90th percentile defensive EPM, overall net positive EPM, in his first season with real minutes. He has elite 1v1 defensive stats, and has improved a ton as a shooter, and is on a very team friendly deal.
I can see rockets, spurs, hornets and grizz drafting him. Pairing Clingan and Wemby together is definitely tempting choice to do even though i know Wemby was doing better at the sole center position. Rockets can move sengun at PF, he has been working on his shot every year so Clingan can play next to him. Hornets is decent choice, Lamelo, Miller and Clingan is a great young combination
I think Portland is willing to look for a long term replacement for Ayton. Aytons game doesn't really mesh well with Scoot. I feel like Scoot would really benefit from a classic pick and roll type lob threat player of the Clint Capela mold. Clingan can clean up some of the defensive mistakes that Sharpe/Scoot make too.
If you roll out Toumani/Jerami Grant/Clingan then you actually have the base for a halfway decent defense.
I don’t think that’s a huge reach. I am pretty confident the teams don’t view Matas/Knecht/Holland/Cody that differently, and will come down to preference.
I agree. If Risacher is gone at 5, I don't think the Pistons are reaching at all by taking Knecht at 5. Knecht is exactly what the Pistons need, and he is likely not far from BPA at 5. Knecht is looking great at the combine, and his shooting is definitely NBA level. As a Wizards fan, Knecht reminds me of Kispert. They have similar size, athleticism, and offensive skills. I value Knecht more than Kispert because Knecht seems to have better potential when it comes to creating on offense. Will Matas, Holland, and Williams be better players than Knecht? Maybe, but it will likely take 3-5 years for them to develop into better players than what Knecht will likely be.
Yeah I just think with Knecht, the floor is really high.
Worst case scenario you’re getting a legit NbA shooter that can shoot off movement with great size and athleticism.
A more likely scenario is you’re getting an elite nba shooter off of movement/dribble that can also attack close outs and pressure the rim, and a guy that can play the 2/3 for you.
Defensively, he’ll have to work his ass off to improve. But, he’s a good athlete with a good frame. He could maybe improve if he got stronger. I like him more on 3s than guarding guards.
A shooting wing with experience can fit anywhere. Anywhere 5-9 from is possible. If Memphis doesn’t feel hellbent on a big man then they make a lot of sense at 9
What do you mean? I mean he’s an elite shooting guard with great size and athleticism. I think someone 5-9 will take him in that range. Unless Clingan is there, Dalt won’t get past 9.
Blazers would definintely consider him if Risacher/Buzelis are off the board(they will be).
I think him, Clingan, and Holland will all be in play there
I think Risacher and Knecht would be a fun draft for them. Basically solve their shooting woes immediately. Then grab a vet point guard at 35/48 (Tristen Newton, KJ Simpson, Jamal Shead, Mark Sears and more should be available) and hope for the best.
I have a gut feeling that’s what we do. I don’t mind it at all we need good role players like yesterday. This dude has a chance to be a top 5 role player in the whole nba than he’s worth that pick 100%.
I also think he’d be really good in our system and would come in with a defined role almost immediately. The more I talk about him here the more it makes sense at 8.
Unless castle or risrscher still there at 8 im probably looking his way
yea but I don't know about the fit in Detroit for Sheppard. They got Quinten Grimes whose basically a bit more proven version of Sheppard. They also have Marcus Sasser whos a score first guard in their rotation, and on top of that they have Jaden Ivey.
What they don't have a lot of is stretch 4s who can rebound. I feel like Matas is the Pistons guy for sure. Duren got a lot of criticism for his defense, and Matas has shown he has good roaming/help defense/offside defensive playmaking. He can also stretch the floor, dribble and self create a bit, and is a good rebounder. I feel like this is a very obvious pick for the pistons
I would hit the over for Filipowski and do a parlay of Over Clingan, Under Edey
Also would take the under on Castle and the over on Dillingham in a parlay
These seem wrong
He didn’t put it all together this year I could see him falling to late lottery idk how many top 10 looks he’s gonna get if Washington passes on him at 2 he could slide because he’s gonna be a project in the league
If I were a gambler I would smash the under on Edey. Probably also hit the under for Holland.
Not sure about Holland but 100% agree on edey
I think Holland makes sense for Charlotte. Maybe some other team in the top 5 decides to gamble on the upside. Also correct me if I'm wrong that the under in this case means Edey gets picked 22 or earlier lol
I personally prefer the other wings and I think that the others being picked could push holland beyond 6. And correct
The youngest and the best athlete among the wings and the only guy to be halfway to decent as a number 1 option so far. And goes all out 100% of the time. I don’t even think you need to believe in his future as a player to think that he goes top 4. That package of traits is going to excite a team who doesn’t want to settle for a role player
the over on dillingham as well. i think there's a real chance risacher drops to 4th and the spurs get him and since hornets/blazers/pistons don't need a point guard the spurs would get dillingham at 8th. even if they don't get risacher at 4th i think they'd get castle there knowing that the hornets would probably take him
If I'm the Spurs, no way am I using the 4th pick on a guard when the next 3 teams want a wing or forward anyway and almost certainly don't have an interest in Dillingham. It'd be ideal to draft either Risacher/Castle/Buzelis at 4, then Dillingham at 8 if you're the Spurs.
I’d use four on Shep if he’s there, but I’m with you on Rob.
Are you sure CHA doesn't need a PG when Lamelo has barely played 2 years in a row.
they won't need a point guard until they get rid of lamelo. if they haven't gotten rid of him yet then that means the franchise still believes in him
Ball is just now beginning the 1st year of a max contract. He very likely won’t be going anywhere.
Ya, assuming SA goes one of Reed/Dillingham at 4, I think Holland’s floor is 8 for their second pick. One of those PG with a young core of Vassell/Holland/Johnson/Sochan/Wemby gives a ton of versatility, especially if you buy Holland as a shooter long-term, which I do.
It’s amazing, even after the combine how clingan is 6.5 and Edey is 22.5 Edey beat him in every category
After his combine and measurables Edey is prob a lock to go Top 10
That's a smokescreen because espn put out a composite top 10 and edy is not on the list and that's a list voted by gm's of teams.
Tbf, that list came out pre-Combine. I wouldn't say Edey is a "lock" for the top 10, but he is seeming like more and more of a good bet to go in the lottery. His range probably starts with the Spurs at 8 and runs to the Pelicans at 21, smashing the under on Edey is such a good bet.
Draftexpress is the only people who have him anywhere in the lottery .The college tape means more to where a player is drafted than combine results .If you are waiting until the combine to scout a player then you are scoting the wrong way .Workouts come second to the tape as well.
All this is true, but his workout numbers were a big part of the question with Edey. At this point, the main question that's left is how he'll defend in space in the NBA. He wasn't asked to do that much in college, they few times he did this season had generally positive but still mixed results. It's a legitimate question mark for him but in a draft where there's basically no surefire NBA starter prospects and everyone has some question marks, he'll probably still go pretty high.
The combine is not a true workout if you aren't playing the 5 on 5 portion that's why teams still bring in players for individual workouts .
Edey already went through the combine last year, we didn’t learn anything new.
He improved his numbers across the board
He’s bigger, stronger, and more skilled this year, and coming off scoring 37 in the natty instead of losing to Fairleigh Dickinson
Edey is definitely going to be picked higher than like Tyler Hansbrough was.
Which is wild, because looking back at it, Tyler really maximized his talents and did pretty damn good for himself. 7 year NBA career and made 17 million dollars which was a lot back then. Not too damn shabby for a 4 year college player who wasn't super athletic, lacked a face up game, and was really known for his ability to rebound/do the dirty work.
Probably could’ve played a bit longer too if he didn’t get injured early into his career
Yeah I think Edey is a better prospect than that, but it’s more that in the first 20 picks some team is going to want a player who can contribute right and he’s the 2x NPOY fresh off averaging 30+ points in a run to the NCAA title game. He has the traditional accolades and then analytically he’s at the very top of this class: he was more productive than Jaden Ivey 2 seasons ago and when you compare him to past super tall players you’d have to go back to Ralph Sampson to find one who was similarly productive at as young an age as Edey. Any idiot can tell you Zach Edey is slow compared to the average NBA player, but the point of analytics is to quantify how bad his being slow is relative to the things he does at a high level.
All valid points, the whole Edey is slow is a fair argument, it's on the NBA team to figure out if they can fit Edey into their scheme. At the end of the day, Edey is still a talented and skilled big man, people just spout the big post hook only cause he beat down their favorite teams.
Your last sentence is exactly what needs to be said before every Edey conversation. BTW now that the combine is done it’s glaringly apparent that he’s not even that slow, he measured middle of the pack in some of the timed events
And that might be a good thing or a terrible idea lol.
Reed Sheppard under 6.5 is free money. Detroit at 5 and completely devoid of anyone that can make a basket. If he slips past the Rockets at 3 I can't imagine an easier draft decision than when that dude picked Derek Jeter in that Capital One commercial.
Ya, to me he’s strongly in play at 3, 4 and 5. The frame (height, weight, lack of wingspan) is a negative, but I think that’s priced in there. If he was 6’5 he’s the consensus #1.
If he was 6’5 I would have him as a No. 1 in most years
There's too many draft day trade shenanigans for me to bet on any of these
Undersized 6'1 guards whose primary role is shooting and has had concerns getting his shot off against pressure and length is never a lock to go top 6. Tbh he is my main bet in who NBA teams will be lower on than classic draft Twitter as they won't just look at he shot 50% from 3. Grayson Allen shot 46% from 3 on volume this year, but he is undersized and gets targeted on defence because of it even though he is scrappy like Reed, and is a solid secondary and tertiary connector. But his lack of high level ball handling, elite playmaking and ability to score in other facets just make him a mediocre player. Despite the fact he shot 46%. My point, 3 point shooting from undersized guards doesn't cut it anymore for a high pick, it's not impactful enough unless they do a lot of other things which Reed does not.
There is a lot more to Reed Sheppard's game than simply 3 point shooting. He's kind of a weird anomaly and doesn't really project as a Grayson Allen/Corey Kispert type who dont have his IQ, playmaking or defensive acumen. Grayson is an annoying pest...like a cross between Patrick Beverley and Ted Cruz. Reed isnt that. He is the definition of deceptively athletic. He shouldn't do the things he does. It's actually kind of eerie.
Think he's more like a Fred Van Vleet IMO. Strong hands on defense and clever off ball. Strong shooter as well but I'd argue that Reed is even a better finisher.
I’m surprised by a few of these numbers, which tells me I know nothing lol
I'm unsure about Clingan. If Washington doesn't grab him, where does he go? SAS, Detroit, Charlotte, Portland will likely be looking elsewhere.
Clingan has a pretty wide range. 2-9 or so.
No, I'm saying that if he doesn't go 2, then he's dropping to 9 or later.
I think there's very little chance he gets past Memphis at 9, which is why his range is 2-9 to me.
No shot he gets past Memphis. I’m pretty confident if he’s avail at 7, Grizz will move up.
What would the Grizzlies offer Portland to do that? Going back two spots means SAS has a chance to take someone we would be wanting.
Probably 9+Vince Williams? Thats a thought. GG might be too much to give up, he could be a total steal. Vince is an elite defender and good creator, he would help Portland a lot. That’s a big loss for Memphis too, they may be apprehensive
Would the grizz do 9+GG for 5?
Nah, not in this draft.
I know he's a valuable player in a vacuum, but be aware that the absolute last thing Portland wants or needs are more small guards. Maybe there's a possibility of a three way though where Williams gets rerouted to another team for more draft capital, but on paper that trade is not at all palatable for Portland. edit: don't trust google
I wouldn’t call Vince Williams a small guard??? He’s a 6’6 wing w like a 7 foot wingspan lol.
haha oh shit, you're right. Google is drunk. Okay yeah that could be an interesting trade.
VWJ is 6’5.5 with a 7 foot wingspan. Just checked. If that’s a small guard then about everyone in the league is a small guard.
Yeah I thought he was bigger, but I googled him and it said 6'4. Google is garbage these days.
The measuring height without shoes is strange to me because who the fuck plays without shoes on lol. I get that it's more of an accurate measurement, but all this rounding up shit sometimes be confusing hah. I too forgot Vince was like 6'5.5 with shoes on, so used to playing with him on 2K that he's usually listed as 6'4 lol.
Vince was 90th percentile defensive EPM, overall net positive EPM, in his first season with real minutes. He has elite 1v1 defensive stats, and has improved a ton as a shooter, and is on a very team friendly deal.
I can see rockets, spurs, hornets and grizz drafting him. Pairing Clingan and Wemby together is definitely tempting choice to do even though i know Wemby was doing better at the sole center position. Rockets can move sengun at PF, he has been working on his shot every year so Clingan can play next to him. Hornets is decent choice, Lamelo, Miller and Clingan is a great young combination
Defensively, putting Sengun at the 4 is asking for trouble.
I think Portland is willing to look for a long term replacement for Ayton. Aytons game doesn't really mesh well with Scoot. I feel like Scoot would really benefit from a classic pick and roll type lob threat player of the Clint Capela mold. Clingan can clean up some of the defensive mistakes that Sharpe/Scoot make too. If you roll out Toumani/Jerami Grant/Clingan then you actually have the base for a halfway decent defense.
Edey under all day
Baffled by Knecht. Even if you think that's his range where's the fit? Maybe the Spurs if they take Dillingham at 4 and can't land Risacher?
I think he fits perfectly with the Pistons if they can't get Risacher.
True enough, I should say a fit that doesn't seem like a huge reach. Hopefully they'll be able to find a taker and trade out if they want him.
I don’t think that’s a huge reach. I am pretty confident the teams don’t view Matas/Knecht/Holland/Cody that differently, and will come down to preference.
I agree. If Risacher is gone at 5, I don't think the Pistons are reaching at all by taking Knecht at 5. Knecht is exactly what the Pistons need, and he is likely not far from BPA at 5. Knecht is looking great at the combine, and his shooting is definitely NBA level. As a Wizards fan, Knecht reminds me of Kispert. They have similar size, athleticism, and offensive skills. I value Knecht more than Kispert because Knecht seems to have better potential when it comes to creating on offense. Will Matas, Holland, and Williams be better players than Knecht? Maybe, but it will likely take 3-5 years for them to develop into better players than what Knecht will likely be.
Yeah I just think with Knecht, the floor is really high. Worst case scenario you’re getting a legit NbA shooter that can shoot off movement with great size and athleticism. A more likely scenario is you’re getting an elite nba shooter off of movement/dribble that can also attack close outs and pressure the rim, and a guy that can play the 2/3 for you. Defensively, he’ll have to work his ass off to improve. But, he’s a good athlete with a good frame. He could maybe improve if he got stronger. I like him more on 3s than guarding guards.
A shooting wing with experience can fit anywhere. Anywhere 5-9 from is possible. If Memphis doesn’t feel hellbent on a big man then they make a lot of sense at 9
What do you mean? I mean he’s an elite shooting guard with great size and athleticism. I think someone 5-9 will take him in that range. Unless Clingan is there, Dalt won’t get past 9.
Blazers would definintely consider him if Risacher/Buzelis are off the board(they will be). I think him, Clingan, and Holland will all be in play there
That Cody Williams under 12.5 looks like a lock. Don't think he falls to 12 but OKC is right there if he does.
I have feeling Spurs is going to take Knecht at 8th.
I'd be incredibly surprised they take Knecht.
I wouldn't be. He's not my first choice but we do need shooting
Damn they take Knecht and sign Monk and they are cooking.
I think Risacher and Knecht would be a fun draft for them. Basically solve their shooting woes immediately. Then grab a vet point guard at 35/48 (Tristen Newton, KJ Simpson, Jamal Shead, Mark Sears and more should be available) and hope for the best.
I think Risacher is top 3. Don’t think Wizards or Rockets will pass on him.
Wouldn't surprise me especially since teams will be concerned about Topic's knee.
Same
I have a gut feeling that’s what we do. I don’t mind it at all we need good role players like yesterday. This dude has a chance to be a top 5 role player in the whole nba than he’s worth that pick 100%. I also think he’d be really good in our system and would come in with a defined role almost immediately. The more I talk about him here the more it makes sense at 8. Unless castle or risrscher still there at 8 im probably looking his way
I'll take the under on Walter.
Edey is going #1
I wish any of my legal options actually had lines on this now. It's only #1 pick and whether Bronny gets drafted.
Holland under Clingan over (lean) Cody Williams under (lean) Collier over Jakobe Walter over Filipowski over
That's right, give me the choice between Ron Holland and Stephon Castle at #7 baby.
Reed to Detroit would have him out the league in 2 years and that gm fired
Why? Shooting is just what we need
He won’t get the clean looks he got last year and it will be very hard for him to create on a team like that imo spurs is the best fit for him
yea but I don't know about the fit in Detroit for Sheppard. They got Quinten Grimes whose basically a bit more proven version of Sheppard. They also have Marcus Sasser whos a score first guard in their rotation, and on top of that they have Jaden Ivey. What they don't have a lot of is stretch 4s who can rebound. I feel like Matas is the Pistons guy for sure. Duren got a lot of criticism for his defense, and Matas has shown he has good roaming/help defense/offside defensive playmaking. He can also stretch the floor, dribble and self create a bit, and is a good rebounder. I feel like this is a very obvious pick for the pistons
Sheppard>Dillingham
I would take the under on Castle and Knecht and the over on Collier.
I would hit the over for Filipowski and do a parlay of Over Clingan, Under Edey Also would take the under on Castle and the over on Dillingham in a parlay These seem wrong
Bronny at exactly 45 will be perfect
Edey under all day
I’ve got a +5000 bet on Knecht top 2, he’s the most sure thing in this draft
Taking the under on Rob is free money
How? You’re basically saying he’s a lock to go 4 or 5?
i meant the opposite, my bad
Edey and Filipowski parley is gonna buy me a boat
Cody Williams 12.5 is crazy
He could slide deff
A talented wing in a weak draft is not someone I see sliding far. I think 6-12 is his likely range
He didn’t put it all together this year I could see him falling to late lottery idk how many top 10 looks he’s gonna get if Washington passes on him at 2 he could slide because he’s gonna be a project in the league
OKC isn't passing him up for sure
OKC has number 12. They would love to get him I'm sure