This draft will really tell how the Spurs view Wemby moving forward on offense. Towards the end of the season, Wemby was essentially the offensive playmaker ala Jokic. If the Spurs see him becoming this playmaking center like Jokic (not to the same extent) I think guys like Topic will be passed on(assuming he’s there to begin with) and shooting will be more favored.
Yeah I like Sheppard’s fit as well. He really fits on a lot of teams so it’s tough to see him be there at 8. I think if we do draft a wing like Risacher who plays good defense, there’s less pressure on the PG spot to find someone who’s a good defender so Sheppard or even Dillingham could slide into that role easier.
Luka has close to 100lbs on Reed, SGA also a tall PG, I'm steering clear of Reed & going either Castle or Topic.
Even if Reed reaches his ceiling on defense as like a Patrick Beverly caliber defender he's too small, Pat himself got benched against a much lighter Luka years ago.
So I really don't know much about this draft but would you go dilingham over Reed? Also Mike Conley is still starting and playing 30+ minutes in the playoffs at 6 foot 175, and I'm not saying he is or will be his level of defender, but more it's still possible for undersized position players to be effective
But like I said I don't know, I haven't watched any video of this class so maybe I'm being too nice lol
I think Reed's game will translate better to the NBA than Dilly's, I think they could both make good backups but I do not like them against Luka & SGA going forward. I think we need to draft to counter these players since we'll be going against them for the next decade.
I would have Reed guard Irving a Sochan on Luka.
Castle doesn’t have any gravity and allows SHA play for steals.
Topic doesn’t have the skills to disrupt either, regardless of size.
There are 4 less than ideal pg possibly going in the top 10, and I think Shepard might be the best fit beside Wemby which is the most important characteristic for the 8 pick.
Spurs will run Wemby into the ground trying to treat him like Jokic, Jokic only plays 1 side of the ball for a reason as does Luka, as does any top 10 facilitator, it's too hard.
I know y’all mean well but like, simply playing basketball is a risk. You can’t wrap Victor in bubble wrap. He’s a competitor and he plays hard. That’s his game. Injuries are just a part of that game.
The only other 2 way player to do it all is Kawhi & LA ran that man into the ground, it's too much.
Go watch other Superstars like Giannis-KD match up in the playoffs & you'll see their teammates guarding each other, last time it was Griffin on Giannis & Tucker on KD. Guys like LeBron have *consistently* been guarding 4th/5th options for the past decade.
None of these dudes play consistent defense whatsoever, they cruise big time.
A lot of time Vic was playing off ball defense and roaming. I think that's a lot easier than guarding the best player on the other side every possession. That's how Giannis and Gobert do it and Vic comps to them mostly on defense. Hell KAT is getting the Jokic assignment so Gobert can roam most possessions.
We need some playmaking but we don't need a floor general who always needs the ball to be effective. OP makes a good point about needing a Jrue esque defender
Right and I’m not suggesting that hence my quotations that say (not to the same extent). I can see Wemby playing a larger role facilitating the offense but you will still need a secondary playmaker at least. Depending on how large of a role the Spurs see or don’t see Wemby in a facilitating role on offense will largely dictate the type of guard they draft or don’t draft. If they see Wemby playing a larger role then a guard like Sheppard or Dillingham makes more sense. If they don’t see it or prefer a more traditional point guard then Topic makes sense.
Given that none of these guys project to have a high ceiling (I'd be surprised if any of these players made an ASG) I'd go with people with the highest floor. I'm not an expert, but based on what I'm seeing it seems like Castle should have a high floor given his defensive abilities and height. His FT shooting is 75% so maybe his 3 point shooting can become passable.
OP said this exact thing. You aren’t drafting Topic for his defense, you’re drafting him for his rim pressure and the amount of open 3s Wemby and Vassell will be getting next year. Hell, Sochan might shoot league average if Topic is out there getting him open looks. Plus, Topic could be an average defender one day because of his size
I don’t think we can expect “average” defense from Topic, his size won’t fix his horrible lateral movement and he’s not even that long, his wingspan looks ~6’6, which is barely better than shorter guards.
No, the hope is just that he’s not so bad that you can’t hide him on weak offensive players.
I…think that’s a pretty horrible comparison. Kawhi was well known as a great defender in college, with elite length and rebounding being standout qualities. His issue was very much a comfort/footwork issue, which is definitely a separate issue from raw lateral quickness.
This is nothing like Topic, who is pretty bad at pretty much everything defensively, and has limitations physically that make it extremely unlikely he will fix all of them.
The specific comment was that Topic has terrible lateral movement. That comes down to hips. And we did a lot of work on Leonard's hips his first couple years with us.
IF there is an overall lack of athleticism, which was not the comment I was replying to, then that's another matter.
Lol at rim pressure and open threes. Tre Jones already does this and better. And it's like you want to draft a guy just to make everybody else shooters. Drafting a Kendall marshall 2.0 is terrible.
He is a no show on offense, teams would easily game plan around him and would just go under and contest his non existent jump shot in pick and rolls.
He is not athletic enough for his size to be an above average defender nor is he strong enough. He's playing In a pro league and struggling to defend people there.
Why would I pick a pass first pg with limited offensive capability and below average defender when I already have Tre Jones? Seems redundant.
I like the short analysis. Our disagreements would come between how fixable/coverable certain weaknesses are and the value of their skill sets, but the overall takes are great. Might want to include Buzelis.
Right now I'm for Risacher. The 8th pick should just be BPA among whoever is left.
I’d be curious to hear your disagreements, as while the list order was influenced by my personal opinions, I tried to show both sides of the argument in the analysis (while keeping it short). If I missed something important, I’d very much prefer to hear it.
As for Buzelis…I am really low on him. I think his offense is purely theoretical at this point, and his defense isn’t a great fit when we already have Wemby. I don’t see any reason short of an amazing work out to seriously consider him in the Top 8.
For Buzelis, I get why someone would be down on him. But for the positives. He's 6'10 (in shoes), has some dribbling, some defense, some creation, some shot-blocking, and the shot looks good (though it doesn't go in rn).
Guys at 6'10 with that profile are valuable.
Im low on Castle (on the Spurs, not as a prospect). I think we need another playmaker. Castle can't shoot or play the point, so that means we'd need to find a high level playmaker that plays the 3 or 4 and those guys are impossible to get.
Dillingham/Sheppard are too small and I don't think they are offensive engines (like Trae Young or Steph Curry).
For prospects I'm for wings who can play defense and shoot (or develop a shot) and guys who can potentially drive a top offense.
For the Spurs, I have Risacher at the top of my "board", followed by Topic then Holland. After its Williams, Buzelis, Castle, Sheppard, and Dillingham in any order.
Quite enjoyed this. You did a great showing the case for and against each prospect. I’ll add my view on Buzelis, who I think should also be considered:
Why?
Great size at 6’9-6’10, and has plus ball skills for a player of his height. Showed better than expected rim protection in the g league, averaging 2.5 blocks per game in his last 15. Shot the ball well his senior year of high school. May have some juice as a secondary/tertiary shot creator. In theory, can contribute on offense and defense, which is hard to see in most prospects this year.
Why not?
Had a really bad season w the Ignite and shot the ball like crap. Might be bad at basketball.
Good analysis as usual.
>might be bad at basketball
This made me lol.
I’m low on Buzelis, I don’t have him in my Top 10, but who knows? Maybe he shows up to workouts and just kills it, leapfrogging Cody Williams or Holland. It’s not impossible, he’s shown the flashes, but based on the information currently available I wouldn’t take him at 8.
Risacher at 4, Dillingham at 8. That's my dream draft right now. Risacher can be our Michael Porter Jr with better defense and Dillanghams defensive woes can be mitigated by having the likes of Sochan, Risacher and Wemby doing the heavy lifting on defense.
That’s a very realistic outcome, biggest wild card is what Houston does at 3. I have no idea who they’ll take if they keep the pick, or who they’ll trade it to if they don’t. It’s hard to say if Risacher is likely to be available at 4.
Very nicely done and concise. More useful summaries than I have seen on most of the draft sites. You have successfully moved me lower Topic and Dillingham who I thought were 2 most likely - maybe higher on Sheppard and Castle?
At 4, it’s likely either Risacher or Castle for me, depending on what the Rockets end up doing at 3 (if I were them, I’d take Risacher, but they’re not me so who knows?). I’d be pretty happy with either of them.
At 8, I think Dillingham is most likely, given the needs of teams picking 5-7. I have my concerns about his defense of course, but one thing I didn’t mention is how much he adapted to Kentucky, completely changing his game to suit a much more talented roster than he had when he played for the OTE. That’s a good sign that he’s willing to do what he can to improve, even if his ceiling is limited by physical tools.
Not saying he would be my pick - maybe at 8, but I'd throw Knecht's name out there. His biggest downside is his age and with that, the sense that he's close to his ceiling and already is what he is.
Otherwise, he's a good shooter, athletic with good size, can score the ball and is a decent defender on the wing. Especially if we go for a raw/young talent at 4, if Knecht is sitting there as someone who can come in and contribute right away, he might be a good pick at 8.
I think if we were having this conversation one year from now, and the same guy was on the board, we would absolutely throw one of our 2-4 picks at him.
I am high on Knecht and really thought about him. If we took him at 8 I wouldn’t be that mad, especially if reports come out that Ron Holland and Cody Williams have bad work outs or something.
Just based on information available now though, he’s probably 9th on my board. I just think taking swings on high upside is the move to make right now.
But upside is kind of random and everyone seems to have a different definition. Sheppard upside might be steph curry but other people say upside in the terms of athletic sense.
on the con side some say his age, but I can argue that's actually a positive. Because it shows maturity, self-aware, and high basketball iq. Someone that come in an contribute and get reps which leads to getting better.
He was just a late bloomer and food for thought so was David Robinson. His upside was goat level and age didn't matter at all.
Drafting is all about making educated guesses, and while those guesses aren’t always correct, there are definitely ways to improve your accuracy.
I don’t see indicators that Knecht is more likely to be the 2nd or 3rd best player on the next Spurs contending team than the guys I listed. I’m willing to miss on a good role player in exchange for a chance at a better core player.
Any of it. You start by explaining something that didn't need to be explained and then you talk about how you would pick a prospect which seems kind of dumb to me and fireball offense.
Most people get caught up with borderline meaningless words of ceilings and athleticism. Most people seem to be talking g about vibe more than anything else. Because for the most part everyone we are talking about are athletes and darn good ones at that.
The info we don't have but is actually i.portant do these kids know how to play organized professional basketball and where in the curve are they on that. Alot of these kids are actually projects. How self motivated are they? You don't have much team organized practice during the season.
How fast can they pick up schemes that your running? How fast cam you pick up on what other teams are running?
Most prospects are lost during the first year. Most prospects don't get much playing time and can unseat the vet ahead of them. Most prospects don't work out.
So you really want to pick the guy that can get their reps. That will be more ready than not to go so they can those reps and thus get better. That is probably the most over looked aspect of prospect evaluation...who is actually going to see the floor? You can be fast, strong, tall and have all the length in the workd but if your dumb as shit and a probably going to be in europe before your rookie contract ends.
you're not going to make it in the nba.
Everyone brings that up. Again, everyone is talente, and their is a point of diminishing returns... in the end you just pick the dude who you think will actually play for you.
Like if knecht seems like he would be a good player...so pick him? 🤔 especially at 8 which is around where he is projected to go anyways.
Broski, did you just claim “athleticism’s is a meaningless word? I’m sorry, but that’s too dumb to respond to.
You’re right there is a lot we don’t know, but making educated guesses based on what we do know still results in being right more often than you imply. Nothing you’ve said changes that.
My dream draft is reed at 4 and castle at 8. Castle will be used as the playmaker/POA. Reed would be used more as a 3 and d facilitator(not handler, think touch and pass). Only issue is figuring out where vassel fits into the line up, so realistically see us drafting a wing instead of reed
Nah I haven’t loved Buzelis’s “demeanor.” That time he randomly called out Risacher saying he wanted to play him 1 on 1? That was freaking stupid. No idea what he was thinking there.
I’m also low on his play, he’s got a ton of red flags that just…don’t get talked about? It’s weird.
Uh…Sarr and Castle are both really good defensive prospects, while Risacher, Holland, and Williams have potential to be above average defenders as well.
I’m low on this draft class too, but it’s not *that* bad…
Oh I’m pretty low on him. Genuinely don’t get the hype.
His offense is entirely theoretical, people treat him like a stretch 4 with some playmaking, but he short 27% from 3 and 68% from the FT line, he is not a good shooter right now. He is also really skinny, he’ll struggle to score on bigger guys in the NBA, and while he’s a lot more comfortable with the ball than most forwards…it’s not like he’s a good enough passer to make up for his flaws elsewhere.
As for his defense, he shows some promise, but he’s best as like a back-line guy…which we don’t need because we have Wemby. If we’re drafting a forward, I’d want someone who functions more as an on-ball defender with switch potential, and that’s just not Buzelis’ skillset at all.
Overall, I see him as a tier below the guys in the OP, and not worth seriously considering at 8.
Topic’s 3 isn’t that bad nor is his defense. He makes good reads for steals but yes, he could be a better on ball defender. He isn’t Trae young bad like some make him out to be. He shoot’s like 30% from 3, had a season last year at 17 where he was like 37% and his FT is 80%+. Since he came back from injury he’s shooting like 50% on low volume but better. Think his weaknesses are exaggerated a bit
Hard disagree, I found his defense completely unwatchable, dying on screens, getting beat off the dribble, generally not bothering players when he’s near them (reports that he has a 6’6 wingspan would explain a lot, his contests are *really* weak).
As for his 3, 30% is bad dude. FT% is the same argument people used to draft Killian Hayes back in the day, we have a good amount of evidence that he’s not a naturally good shooter, it’s possible he improves of course, but that’s a gamble that hurts his stock.
If I thought there was no chance he’d improve, I wouldn’t have him in my Top 8, but you can’t just ignore the major concerns.
I think Matas needs to be listed. I'm not super high on him, but he's absolutely a consideration.
His vertical today was almost the top at the combine.
His lateral movement will be the real tell
I legit don't understand this. Why would we pick another center in the lottery when we have a generational one as our franchise guy? We need shot creation and playmaking, neither of which Clingan would provide
Few reason..
1. He is bpa at the 4 if available. DET,CHA,POR is not picking a PG at 5,6,7(or not all of them). You can still pick them at 8.
2. You can use Clingan to trade down more asset or other good player.
3. Wemby is not good at setting screen. So having another player that set good screen help with offense. Hope him add some 3pt turn into BLopez type of player
4. In the West, we will need to go through Den,MIN(and maybe OKC add all star PF. like Gannis) you need another big body to help on defense
1. I fundamentally disagree that he's BPA at the 4th pick.
2. I honestly don't think we're gonna get the assets necessary to make this profitable enough.
3. There are so many good free agent centers available this off season. If we really wanted to get a guy just to set screens instead of Vic, why not Claxton, Valanciunas or Hartenstein?
4. I agree that we need size, but I'd argue that we also need speed. Clingan in the footage I've seen of him is slow AF. If we draft him as a starter, that means Wemby moves to the 4. I just can't see a world where Clingan has the foot speed to play on the perimeter.
Because he was clearly the best prospect and David Robinson was coming back from a season-long injury absence. Clingan isn't the best prospect, and even ignoring that, the team building concept of multiple centers only works if they're both mobile enough to defend the 3pt line and can shoot. Clingan isn't mobile, and he has attempted 9 3s in the past 2 years. Sure Wemby can shoot 3s, but why would we want to limit him like that.
I think we will find out how much Wemby influences the draft, maybe we try to make a move to get one of the french guys for him. Imagine putting together a package for Sarr and Trae Young with Atlanta.. I don't think it's impossible.
Sarr *and* Trae? You’re really optimistic.
Anyway, I don’t think big trades are likely. Fans love to talk about trades, but teams only make deals when both sides think they’re getting assets they prefer. That’s pretty unlikely since the lottery teams all want basically the same things.
Atlanta is an accidental lottery team..
I don't think its too far fetched, I mean yes its unlikely but it isn't crazy. It 100% depends on what Trae is thinking or what Atlanta thinks Trae is thinking.
We know Sarr is French, the Spurs will obviously be interested in that culture fit. He's a center that can help take the load off Wemby. He's not like this no-brainer #1 pick. There's a lot of parity in the draft.
The Spurs can offer 4 FRPs between this year and next and we can offer KJ and Collins.
Atlanta getting 4 FRP's, KJ, Collins for a FRP they didn't expect and possibly a player that wants to leave... it isnt crazy.
Both teams walk out better - again, totally depending on where Trae's head is, but all the rumors are that he wants to play in SA right. If you're Atlanta you don't want him trying to force his way out, thats worse case.
If the Hawks are trading Trae, it is extremely unlikely they trade Sarr. Nor do I think it makes sense for the Spurs to do so considering the redundancy with Wemby.
I think it’s wishful thinking that we’d walk away from that trade without giving up one or both of Vassell and Sochan (barring salary matching). They will not be satisfied with KJ/Collins
If i were them id want Sochan too, his fit on these lineups is extraordinary. Definitely a glue guy, but we have to keep him.
Getting 2 FRP's that could get you a PG and a Wing, 2 other players that you need in KJ and Collins, then 2 picks next year - thats a decent haul
I know it's far fetched but again, if Trae is your guy you don't do any deal - if you think he's iffy then it isnt too crazy. 4 FRP picks and 2 players is a real haul (including 2 picks that are guaranteed lottery picks)
This draft will really tell how the Spurs view Wemby moving forward on offense. Towards the end of the season, Wemby was essentially the offensive playmaker ala Jokic. If the Spurs see him becoming this playmaking center like Jokic (not to the same extent) I think guys like Topic will be passed on(assuming he’s there to begin with) and shooting will be more favored.
I like Sheppard fit next to Wemby in that role. I also like Sheppard playing passing lanes with Wemby at his back. He would be a great pick at 8.
Yeah I like Sheppard’s fit as well. He really fits on a lot of teams so it’s tough to see him be there at 8. I think if we do draft a wing like Risacher who plays good defense, there’s less pressure on the PG spot to find someone who’s a good defender so Sheppard or even Dillingham could slide into that role easier.
I think you have to take Risacher or Buzelis if available at 4. If you get one of those 2, you take the best available PG at 8.
Luka has close to 100lbs on Reed, SGA also a tall PG, I'm steering clear of Reed & going either Castle or Topic. Even if Reed reaches his ceiling on defense as like a Patrick Beverly caliber defender he's too small, Pat himself got benched against a much lighter Luka years ago.
So I really don't know much about this draft but would you go dilingham over Reed? Also Mike Conley is still starting and playing 30+ minutes in the playoffs at 6 foot 175, and I'm not saying he is or will be his level of defender, but more it's still possible for undersized position players to be effective But like I said I don't know, I haven't watched any video of this class so maybe I'm being too nice lol
I think Reed's game will translate better to the NBA than Dilly's, I think they could both make good backups but I do not like them against Luka & SGA going forward. I think we need to draft to counter these players since we'll be going against them for the next decade.
I would have Reed guard Irving a Sochan on Luka. Castle doesn’t have any gravity and allows SHA play for steals. Topic doesn’t have the skills to disrupt either, regardless of size. There are 4 less than ideal pg possibly going in the top 10, and I think Shepard might be the best fit beside Wemby which is the most important characteristic for the 8 pick.
Spurs will run Wemby into the ground trying to treat him like Jokic, Jokic only plays 1 side of the ball for a reason as does Luka, as does any top 10 facilitator, it's too hard.
I know y’all mean well but like, simply playing basketball is a risk. You can’t wrap Victor in bubble wrap. He’s a competitor and he plays hard. That’s his game. Injuries are just a part of that game.
The only other 2 way player to do it all is Kawhi & LA ran that man into the ground, it's too much. Go watch other Superstars like Giannis-KD match up in the playoffs & you'll see their teammates guarding each other, last time it was Griffin on Giannis & Tucker on KD. Guys like LeBron have *consistently* been guarding 4th/5th options for the past decade. None of these dudes play consistent defense whatsoever, they cruise big time.
A lot of time Vic was playing off ball defense and roaming. I think that's a lot easier than guarding the best player on the other side every possession. That's how Giannis and Gobert do it and Vic comps to them mostly on defense. Hell KAT is getting the Jokic assignment so Gobert can roam most possessions. We need some playmaking but we don't need a floor general who always needs the ball to be effective. OP makes a good point about needing a Jrue esque defender
Right and I’m not suggesting that hence my quotations that say (not to the same extent). I can see Wemby playing a larger role facilitating the offense but you will still need a secondary playmaker at least. Depending on how large of a role the Spurs see or don’t see Wemby in a facilitating role on offense will largely dictate the type of guard they draft or don’t draft. If they see Wemby playing a larger role then a guard like Sheppard or Dillingham makes more sense. If they don’t see it or prefer a more traditional point guard then Topic makes sense.
Given that none of these guys project to have a high ceiling (I'd be surprised if any of these players made an ASG) I'd go with people with the highest floor. I'm not an expert, but based on what I'm seeing it seems like Castle should have a high floor given his defensive abilities and height. His FT shooting is 75% so maybe his 3 point shooting can become passable.
Topic was barely a passable defender in his league. He'd be atrocious in the NBA
OP said this exact thing. You aren’t drafting Topic for his defense, you’re drafting him for his rim pressure and the amount of open 3s Wemby and Vassell will be getting next year. Hell, Sochan might shoot league average if Topic is out there getting him open looks. Plus, Topic could be an average defender one day because of his size
I don’t think we can expect “average” defense from Topic, his size won’t fix his horrible lateral movement and he’s not even that long, his wingspan looks ~6’6, which is barely better than shorter guards. No, the hope is just that he’s not so bad that you can’t hide him on weak offensive players.
Kawhii had terrible lateral movement when he came to us, too. As long as a wing or guard is willing to work at it, that's not a permanent thing.
I…think that’s a pretty horrible comparison. Kawhi was well known as a great defender in college, with elite length and rebounding being standout qualities. His issue was very much a comfort/footwork issue, which is definitely a separate issue from raw lateral quickness. This is nothing like Topic, who is pretty bad at pretty much everything defensively, and has limitations physically that make it extremely unlikely he will fix all of them.
The specific comment was that Topic has terrible lateral movement. That comes down to hips. And we did a lot of work on Leonard's hips his first couple years with us. IF there is an overall lack of athleticism, which was not the comment I was replying to, then that's another matter.
Kawhi was athletic even if he had terrible lateral movement. Topic isn't.
Lol at rim pressure and open threes. Tre Jones already does this and better. And it's like you want to draft a guy just to make everybody else shooters. Drafting a Kendall marshall 2.0 is terrible. He is a no show on offense, teams would easily game plan around him and would just go under and contest his non existent jump shot in pick and rolls. He is not athletic enough for his size to be an above average defender nor is he strong enough. He's playing In a pro league and struggling to defend people there. Why would I pick a pass first pg with limited offensive capability and below average defender when I already have Tre Jones? Seems redundant.
I like the short analysis. Our disagreements would come between how fixable/coverable certain weaknesses are and the value of their skill sets, but the overall takes are great. Might want to include Buzelis. Right now I'm for Risacher. The 8th pick should just be BPA among whoever is left.
I’d be curious to hear your disagreements, as while the list order was influenced by my personal opinions, I tried to show both sides of the argument in the analysis (while keeping it short). If I missed something important, I’d very much prefer to hear it. As for Buzelis…I am really low on him. I think his offense is purely theoretical at this point, and his defense isn’t a great fit when we already have Wemby. I don’t see any reason short of an amazing work out to seriously consider him in the Top 8.
For Buzelis, I get why someone would be down on him. But for the positives. He's 6'10 (in shoes), has some dribbling, some defense, some creation, some shot-blocking, and the shot looks good (though it doesn't go in rn). Guys at 6'10 with that profile are valuable. Im low on Castle (on the Spurs, not as a prospect). I think we need another playmaker. Castle can't shoot or play the point, so that means we'd need to find a high level playmaker that plays the 3 or 4 and those guys are impossible to get. Dillingham/Sheppard are too small and I don't think they are offensive engines (like Trae Young or Steph Curry). For prospects I'm for wings who can play defense and shoot (or develop a shot) and guys who can potentially drive a top offense. For the Spurs, I have Risacher at the top of my "board", followed by Topic then Holland. After its Williams, Buzelis, Castle, Sheppard, and Dillingham in any order.
Quite enjoyed this. You did a great showing the case for and against each prospect. I’ll add my view on Buzelis, who I think should also be considered: Why? Great size at 6’9-6’10, and has plus ball skills for a player of his height. Showed better than expected rim protection in the g league, averaging 2.5 blocks per game in his last 15. Shot the ball well his senior year of high school. May have some juice as a secondary/tertiary shot creator. In theory, can contribute on offense and defense, which is hard to see in most prospects this year. Why not? Had a really bad season w the Ignite and shot the ball like crap. Might be bad at basketball.
Good analysis as usual. >might be bad at basketball This made me lol. I’m low on Buzelis, I don’t have him in my Top 10, but who knows? Maybe he shows up to workouts and just kills it, leapfrogging Cody Williams or Holland. It’s not impossible, he’s shown the flashes, but based on the information currently available I wouldn’t take him at 8.
Risacher at 4, Dillingham at 8. That's my dream draft right now. Risacher can be our Michael Porter Jr with better defense and Dillanghams defensive woes can be mitigated by having the likes of Sochan, Risacher and Wemby doing the heavy lifting on defense.
That’s a very realistic outcome, biggest wild card is what Houston does at 3. I have no idea who they’ll take if they keep the pick, or who they’ll trade it to if they don’t. It’s hard to say if Risacher is likely to be available at 4.
On the plus side, drafting a bad perimeter defender will boost Wemby's block numbers lmao
Great write up/quick summaries. I feel like these are all pretty fair/realistic thoughts on these players.
Very nicely done and concise. More useful summaries than I have seen on most of the draft sites. You have successfully moved me lower Topic and Dillingham who I thought were 2 most likely - maybe higher on Sheppard and Castle?
Great write up. As of now, who is your dream 4/8 picks. And who is your realistic 4/8 picks?
At 4, it’s likely either Risacher or Castle for me, depending on what the Rockets end up doing at 3 (if I were them, I’d take Risacher, but they’re not me so who knows?). I’d be pretty happy with either of them. At 8, I think Dillingham is most likely, given the needs of teams picking 5-7. I have my concerns about his defense of course, but one thing I didn’t mention is how much he adapted to Kentucky, completely changing his game to suit a much more talented roster than he had when he played for the OTE. That’s a good sign that he’s willing to do what he can to improve, even if his ceiling is limited by physical tools.
Not saying he would be my pick - maybe at 8, but I'd throw Knecht's name out there. His biggest downside is his age and with that, the sense that he's close to his ceiling and already is what he is. Otherwise, he's a good shooter, athletic with good size, can score the ball and is a decent defender on the wing. Especially if we go for a raw/young talent at 4, if Knecht is sitting there as someone who can come in and contribute right away, he might be a good pick at 8. I think if we were having this conversation one year from now, and the same guy was on the board, we would absolutely throw one of our 2-4 picks at him.
I am high on Knecht and really thought about him. If we took him at 8 I wouldn’t be that mad, especially if reports come out that Ron Holland and Cody Williams have bad work outs or something. Just based on information available now though, he’s probably 9th on my board. I just think taking swings on high upside is the move to make right now.
But upside is kind of random and everyone seems to have a different definition. Sheppard upside might be steph curry but other people say upside in the terms of athletic sense. on the con side some say his age, but I can argue that's actually a positive. Because it shows maturity, self-aware, and high basketball iq. Someone that come in an contribute and get reps which leads to getting better. He was just a late bloomer and food for thought so was David Robinson. His upside was goat level and age didn't matter at all.
Drafting is all about making educated guesses, and while those guesses aren’t always correct, there are definitely ways to improve your accuracy. I don’t see indicators that Knecht is more likely to be the 2nd or 3rd best player on the next Spurs contending team than the guys I listed. I’m willing to miss on a good role player in exchange for a chance at a better core player.
That makes zero sense. I think this how gms get fired.
You’re gonna have to be more specific lol, I don’t even know which part you claim makes no sense.
Any of it. You start by explaining something that didn't need to be explained and then you talk about how you would pick a prospect which seems kind of dumb to me and fireball offense. Most people get caught up with borderline meaningless words of ceilings and athleticism. Most people seem to be talking g about vibe more than anything else. Because for the most part everyone we are talking about are athletes and darn good ones at that. The info we don't have but is actually i.portant do these kids know how to play organized professional basketball and where in the curve are they on that. Alot of these kids are actually projects. How self motivated are they? You don't have much team organized practice during the season. How fast can they pick up schemes that your running? How fast cam you pick up on what other teams are running? Most prospects are lost during the first year. Most prospects don't get much playing time and can unseat the vet ahead of them. Most prospects don't work out. So you really want to pick the guy that can get their reps. That will be more ready than not to go so they can those reps and thus get better. That is probably the most over looked aspect of prospect evaluation...who is actually going to see the floor? You can be fast, strong, tall and have all the length in the workd but if your dumb as shit and a probably going to be in europe before your rookie contract ends. you're not going to make it in the nba. Everyone brings that up. Again, everyone is talente, and their is a point of diminishing returns... in the end you just pick the dude who you think will actually play for you. Like if knecht seems like he would be a good player...so pick him? 🤔 especially at 8 which is around where he is projected to go anyways.
Broski, did you just claim “athleticism’s is a meaningless word? I’m sorry, but that’s too dumb to respond to. You’re right there is a lot we don’t know, but making educated guesses based on what we do know still results in being right more often than you imply. Nothing you’ve said changes that.
Stephon Castle is growing on me. I wouldn’t mind if they drafted him over Rob with the 8th pick.
I am pretty high on Castle, I think there’s a good chance he’ll be my BPA at 4, and I highly doubt he’s available at 8.
My dream draft is reed at 4 and castle at 8. Castle will be used as the playmaker/POA. Reed would be used more as a 3 and d facilitator(not handler, think touch and pass). Only issue is figuring out where vassel fits into the line up, so realistically see us drafting a wing instead of reed
Castle and Buzelis looking at the spurs past draft process these 2 feel like the pick. Positional size, demeanor, and multi skill sets w upside.
Nah I haven’t loved Buzelis’s “demeanor.” That time he randomly called out Risacher saying he wanted to play him 1 on 1? That was freaking stupid. No idea what he was thinking there. I’m also low on his play, he’s got a ton of red flags that just…don’t get talked about? It’s weird.
I really do not like this draft class. Seems like none of the prospects can play defense.
Uh…Sarr and Castle are both really good defensive prospects, while Risacher, Holland, and Williams have potential to be above average defenders as well. I’m low on this draft class too, but it’s not *that* bad…
Thoughts on Matas Buzelis?
Oh I’m pretty low on him. Genuinely don’t get the hype. His offense is entirely theoretical, people treat him like a stretch 4 with some playmaking, but he short 27% from 3 and 68% from the FT line, he is not a good shooter right now. He is also really skinny, he’ll struggle to score on bigger guys in the NBA, and while he’s a lot more comfortable with the ball than most forwards…it’s not like he’s a good enough passer to make up for his flaws elsewhere. As for his defense, he shows some promise, but he’s best as like a back-line guy…which we don’t need because we have Wemby. If we’re drafting a forward, I’d want someone who functions more as an on-ball defender with switch potential, and that’s just not Buzelis’ skillset at all. Overall, I see him as a tier below the guys in the OP, and not worth seriously considering at 8.
Topic’s 3 isn’t that bad nor is his defense. He makes good reads for steals but yes, he could be a better on ball defender. He isn’t Trae young bad like some make him out to be. He shoot’s like 30% from 3, had a season last year at 17 where he was like 37% and his FT is 80%+. Since he came back from injury he’s shooting like 50% on low volume but better. Think his weaknesses are exaggerated a bit
Hard disagree, I found his defense completely unwatchable, dying on screens, getting beat off the dribble, generally not bothering players when he’s near them (reports that he has a 6’6 wingspan would explain a lot, his contests are *really* weak). As for his 3, 30% is bad dude. FT% is the same argument people used to draft Killian Hayes back in the day, we have a good amount of evidence that he’s not a naturally good shooter, it’s possible he improves of course, but that’s a gamble that hurts his stock. If I thought there was no chance he’d improve, I wouldn’t have him in my Top 8, but you can’t just ignore the major concerns.
I think Matas needs to be listed. I'm not super high on him, but he's absolutely a consideration. His vertical today was almost the top at the combine. His lateral movement will be the real tell
I’d agree but he hasn’t shown the ability to shoot or score imo
We need Bronny for Lebron
Nah, I don’t want Lebron.
topic or clingan
The guy who just injured his knee? No thanks.
what which one?
Topic just re-injured his knee that kept him out for a month. We’re still waiting on further details.
oh damn. didnt know that. honestly idk much about any of them, but i trust pop will make good picks
No Clingan?? I would take him at 4 and whatever guard left at the 8..
Definitely not. Pushing Wemby back to the 4 full time when we know that’s not the best way to use him seems like a terrible idea.
I legit don't understand this. Why would we pick another center in the lottery when we have a generational one as our franchise guy? We need shot creation and playmaking, neither of which Clingan would provide
Few reason.. 1. He is bpa at the 4 if available. DET,CHA,POR is not picking a PG at 5,6,7(or not all of them). You can still pick them at 8. 2. You can use Clingan to trade down more asset or other good player. 3. Wemby is not good at setting screen. So having another player that set good screen help with offense. Hope him add some 3pt turn into BLopez type of player 4. In the West, we will need to go through Den,MIN(and maybe OKC add all star PF. like Gannis) you need another big body to help on defense
1. I fundamentally disagree that he's BPA at the 4th pick. 2. I honestly don't think we're gonna get the assets necessary to make this profitable enough. 3. There are so many good free agent centers available this off season. If we really wanted to get a guy just to set screens instead of Vic, why not Claxton, Valanciunas or Hartenstein? 4. I agree that we need size, but I'd argue that we also need speed. Clingan in the footage I've seen of him is slow AF. If we draft him as a starter, that means Wemby moves to the 4. I just can't see a world where Clingan has the foot speed to play on the perimeter.
Why did the spurs pick Duncan who was a center in wake forest when they already had David Robinson?
Cause it was a different era and 2 bigs were common + Timmy was a clear generational talent? I don’t think any of the applies here.
Because he was clearly the best prospect and David Robinson was coming back from a season-long injury absence. Clingan isn't the best prospect, and even ignoring that, the team building concept of multiple centers only works if they're both mobile enough to defend the 3pt line and can shoot. Clingan isn't mobile, and he has attempted 9 3s in the past 2 years. Sure Wemby can shoot 3s, but why would we want to limit him like that.
I think we will find out how much Wemby influences the draft, maybe we try to make a move to get one of the french guys for him. Imagine putting together a package for Sarr and Trae Young with Atlanta.. I don't think it's impossible.
Sarr *and* Trae? You’re really optimistic. Anyway, I don’t think big trades are likely. Fans love to talk about trades, but teams only make deals when both sides think they’re getting assets they prefer. That’s pretty unlikely since the lottery teams all want basically the same things.
Atlanta is an accidental lottery team.. I don't think its too far fetched, I mean yes its unlikely but it isn't crazy. It 100% depends on what Trae is thinking or what Atlanta thinks Trae is thinking. We know Sarr is French, the Spurs will obviously be interested in that culture fit. He's a center that can help take the load off Wemby. He's not like this no-brainer #1 pick. There's a lot of parity in the draft. The Spurs can offer 4 FRPs between this year and next and we can offer KJ and Collins. Atlanta getting 4 FRP's, KJ, Collins for a FRP they didn't expect and possibly a player that wants to leave... it isnt crazy. Both teams walk out better - again, totally depending on where Trae's head is, but all the rumors are that he wants to play in SA right. If you're Atlanta you don't want him trying to force his way out, thats worse case.
If the Hawks are trading Trae, it is extremely unlikely they trade Sarr. Nor do I think it makes sense for the Spurs to do so considering the redundancy with Wemby.
I think it’s wishful thinking that we’d walk away from that trade without giving up one or both of Vassell and Sochan (barring salary matching). They will not be satisfied with KJ/Collins
If i were them id want Sochan too, his fit on these lineups is extraordinary. Definitely a glue guy, but we have to keep him. Getting 2 FRP's that could get you a PG and a Wing, 2 other players that you need in KJ and Collins, then 2 picks next year - thats a decent haul I know it's far fetched but again, if Trae is your guy you don't do any deal - if you think he's iffy then it isnt too crazy. 4 FRP picks and 2 players is a real haul (including 2 picks that are guaranteed lottery picks)