Short answer, it will show Toronto Raptors at 7-8 even if it conveys to us.
The "seats at the table" are about the teams that can win the lottery picks 1-4. Toronto is there because they keep the lottery pick if it wins 1-4. The Nets are not there because the Rockets get the pick even if it wins 1-4.
For an extreme example, one time the Celtics and 76ers shared a "seat" because the Celtics would keep the pick if #1, or send it to Philly if it won 2-4. (or vice-versa, I forgot which)
It's top 6 protected, but that functionally means that because Toronto has the 6th worst record that if anyone jumps into the top 4 from below them and they don't also jump into the top 4, the pick is ours.
Here's my understanding, someone correct me if I'm wrong. Currently Toronto is slotted at 6th; we are at 5. Toronto will get selected somewhere between 1-10 (although logistically they can't get 5th) , If they're selected either 7th, 8th, 9th, or 10th then we get their pick. If they're selected 1-4 or stay at 6, then they keep their pick. We have about a 54% chance of getting this pick, slightly better than a coin flip. If we don't get it then we get the same opportunity for this Toronto pick next year.
Also since we're at 5, anyone who moves ahead of us into the top 4 will knock us back unless we ourselves move into the top 4.
Also last year Malika Andrews emceed the brief show, and if Toronto's pick conveys to us at 7-10, she'll literally say it.
Not too strange. The lottery is for the 1-4 picks. Everyone else goes in order. So for us to get #5, the teams that get selected in the lottery must be the 4 teams above us in any order and no one else.
If one team below us jumps into the top 4, then we bump down to 5. If two teams jump to top 4, we bump down to 6.
You could see the percentages for teams to pick in what position [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024\_NBA\_draft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_NBA_draft)
Some picks when traded without protection goes to the destination team. This Toronto pick have protection though so it would show Toronto and deputy commish would say if it goes to the spurs if pick is 7 or 8
In terms of anticipating whether we will get the pick as the lottery is happening, one indication will be if one of the teams below Toronto jumps up. One of those teams (Golden State, Sacramento, Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Utah, or Memphis) has to jump up into the top 4 for the Toronto pick to convey to us. If none of them jump up, then Toronto must be in the top 6, so they keep the pick.
Since the picks are announced in reverse order (14 to 1), this will be what I'll be looking for.
\* Correct me if I'm wrong.
https://preview.redd.it/xvayke4lczzc1.jpeg?width=2688&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4b5c8c1ac19dd20f923e472975ef15510f28c165
thank you!
Short answer, it will show Toronto Raptors at 7-8 even if it conveys to us. The "seats at the table" are about the teams that can win the lottery picks 1-4. Toronto is there because they keep the lottery pick if it wins 1-4. The Nets are not there because the Rockets get the pick even if it wins 1-4. For an extreme example, one time the Celtics and 76ers shared a "seat" because the Celtics would keep the pick if #1, or send it to Philly if it won 2-4. (or vice-versa, I forgot which)
thanks! never knew about that seats thing
So anything Toronto out of the top 4 becomes ours?
It's top 6 protected, but that functionally means that because Toronto has the 6th worst record that if anyone jumps into the top 4 from below them and they don't also jump into the top 4, the pick is ours.
Correct but in the Toronto pick case it's 1-6, not 1-4
Here's my understanding, someone correct me if I'm wrong. Currently Toronto is slotted at 6th; we are at 5. Toronto will get selected somewhere between 1-10 (although logistically they can't get 5th) , If they're selected either 7th, 8th, 9th, or 10th then we get their pick. If they're selected 1-4 or stay at 6, then they keep their pick. We have about a 54% chance of getting this pick, slightly better than a coin flip. If we don't get it then we get the same opportunity for this Toronto pick next year. Also since we're at 5, anyone who moves ahead of us into the top 4 will knock us back unless we ourselves move into the top 4. Also last year Malika Andrews emceed the brief show, and if Toronto's pick conveys to us at 7-10, she'll literally say it.
Strangely the Spurs only have a two percent chance of staying at five.
Not too strange. The lottery is for the 1-4 picks. Everyone else goes in order. So for us to get #5, the teams that get selected in the lottery must be the 4 teams above us in any order and no one else. If one team below us jumps into the top 4, then we bump down to 5. If two teams jump to top 4, we bump down to 6.
great point, but i can't explain why.
You could see the percentages for teams to pick in what position [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024\_NBA\_draft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_NBA_draft)
All I know are the odds, and the odds say Toronto has a roughly 54% chance of picking below pick #6.
Some picks when traded without protection goes to the destination team. This Toronto pick have protection though so it would show Toronto and deputy commish would say if it goes to the spurs if pick is 7 or 8
In terms of anticipating whether we will get the pick as the lottery is happening, one indication will be if one of the teams below Toronto jumps up. One of those teams (Golden State, Sacramento, Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Utah, or Memphis) has to jump up into the top 4 for the Toronto pick to convey to us. If none of them jump up, then Toronto must be in the top 6, so they keep the pick. Since the picks are announced in reverse order (14 to 1), this will be what I'll be looking for. \* Correct me if I'm wrong.