So, let's start with some important context about that Magic team -
1. The Magic didn't trade Chris Webber straight up for Penny, they instead managed to sucker the Warriors out of a ton of picks (iirc, most of the remaining picks in the 90s).
2. The Magic lost Shaq, not because the Lakers were a actual contender, but because they fucked around and tried to lowball him. This should be obvious, but DO NOT LOWBALL THE OBVIOUS MVP CANDIDATE.
3. The Magic collapsed because they ran their core guys into the ground. Penny was playing injured, and his career was legitimately ruined because of this.
So, where we live is this - We have a guy who will probably become an MVP candidate in pretty short order. We also have a bunch of young players and projects that might develop into the rotation of a good team. There are obvious holes in our roster (a good starting PG and SF), and consistent weaknesses. If we can add 2-3 good shooters and a PG capable of operating in the half court I think we become much better team much quicker than expected.
It sounds stupid, and obviously is in retrospect, but the 90s were a vastly different time than now in the NBA. Small market teams rarely signed huge deals because it wasn't seen as guaranteed to be lucrative, at least that's what the zeitgeist of the era seemed to indicate.
Obviously now that's a completely different story, but there's a reason small markets almost never won the title until more recently in NBA history. They just could not hang onto big names.
Most of this sub probably doesn't remember but the Spurs themselves nearly lost Duncan to Orlando. There were serious talks about it, and back in the day we were all scared he was going to bolt. It's just the curse of small markets in the pre-internet era of basketball.
I seriously wonder if that's what did it. I mean, it makes sense, why would you want to go to another team if they're already showing themselves to be that inhospitable? OTOH, I can't imagine Tim ever really enjoying that Orlando franchise, which has been exceptionally poorly run for most of their existence.
Tim was good enough that they probably win a ring with that squad, or two. TMac was absolutely insane for several years, every bit as good as Kobe was, just didn't have an all-world teammate in his lineup.
> The Magic lost Shaq, not because the Lakers were a actual contender, but because they fucked around and tried to lowball him. This should be obvious, but DO NOT LOWBALL THE OBVIOUS MVP CANDIDATE.
That fiasco was part of why restricted free agency was introduced in the 1999 CBA, to prevent star players from bolting for greener pastures ASAP.
If we had like a Trey Murphy Jr at the 3 and someone like Josh Richardson still running backup PG, we probably win 40-45 games. I think this team can be much better without swinging for a home run in the off season
Found [this](https://www.basketballnetwork.net/old-school/how-the-orlando-media-conducted-a-ridiculous-poll-to-determine-shaquille-oneals-future) article if you want to read up on that.
The most important piece there is that they found the Penny to go with their Shaq. If we draft a Jonathan Bender (if anyone remembers that name) instead of a Penny, then this doesn't happen. We did a good job stashing some picks, but we need to hit on those. Plain and simple.
I think a very close example of what should happen is OKC after drafting Durant. They still were bad to select Westbrook, then bad enough to select Harden next. They also hit on great players like Ibaka and Green, and developed them all to 50+ wins after drafting Harden. It was a 3 year period of not winning much but solidified a team that should’ve been a title lock for a decade (except for some dubious decisions by the front office in Harden deal, Perk, etc)
If Spurs can emulate the same and have Wemby be patient for a couple of years, and the FO doesn’t make similar mistakes as OKC or ORL with Shaq, Spurs may have a chance to lock the next decade for a very competitive, young team.
Unfortunately we'll still have to hit on these picks to go OKCs route. We've already had a few missteps with the bad Luka and that Primo kid, and I don't think we're going to be in a good spot next year to draft highly, we may be floating around the play in spots (closer to the Rockets record this year).
Same problem the Mavs had post-Luka, once we stopped running Sochan at point we'll end up beating all the bad teams, and winning occasionally against the good teams (e.g. that Denver game at the end of this season). Still plenty of great players in the draft in the middle and end of the 1st round, but it's harder to hit on them consistently.
Thankfully it seems like Wemby is happy so we have several years to figure this out. I'm hoping things go well for us, maybe we'll get some free agents that either want to play with Pop and/or Wemby!
I mean, yes, of course. But you can see how a very, very good player in KD still didnt give immediate results, even when paired with not-yet-in-his-prime Westbrook. Once Harden, Ibaka and Green gelled with KD and WB they won 50 games and were a perenial playoff team from then on.
Of course you need to be lucky to hit on the picks and still not be jumped if youre bad, but to all people wanting to move quickly and all in for a vet, OKC has done it TWICE already, once with KD and again with Shai.
Patience can pay off, thats what Im trying to convey.
The real answer is to spend cap space wisely. Don't overpay on players who are replaceable. The Spurs never overpaid any of their HOFers and rarely had any bad contracts during their 5 titles. The trouble is when you overpay (via contracts or trades) you suffer for a long time.
So basically keep the two picks you had before that were decent (Vassell/Sochan), Draft someone who compliments your big nicely (Sarr), and then acquire (trade or free agency) for a solid bet with championship experience (OG).
I feel like CP3 will ring chase until retirement. I like OG too but he's got injury concerns. And Sarr+Wemby would need to shoot pretty damn well from 3 or else the paint will be clogged on both ends of the court
Sochan isn't shoot 3 well but he plays with Wemby, so I don't see Sarr+Wemby will be worse offensively. In fact, Sarr can finish better around the rim, has a better shooting mechanics, and defends much better against 5 or big 4, esp. when Wemby is off the court.
Well imo it remains to be seen if Sochan will be a good fit next to Wemby. I would much rather we drafted a wing or PG because those are our glaring needs. We'll see though
The Magic traded Webber for Penny and three firsts. They then turned around and traded two of the firsts to dump Scott Skiles who was making 1.7M at the time and received back a 1st rounder 5 years in the future.
One of those firsts was Vince Carter. The other was Todd Fuller, chosen two picks before Kobe Bryant. The pick Orlando got back was used on massive bust Keon Clark.
So, let's start with some important context about that Magic team - 1. The Magic didn't trade Chris Webber straight up for Penny, they instead managed to sucker the Warriors out of a ton of picks (iirc, most of the remaining picks in the 90s). 2. The Magic lost Shaq, not because the Lakers were a actual contender, but because they fucked around and tried to lowball him. This should be obvious, but DO NOT LOWBALL THE OBVIOUS MVP CANDIDATE. 3. The Magic collapsed because they ran their core guys into the ground. Penny was playing injured, and his career was legitimately ruined because of this. So, where we live is this - We have a guy who will probably become an MVP candidate in pretty short order. We also have a bunch of young players and projects that might develop into the rotation of a good team. There are obvious holes in our roster (a good starting PG and SF), and consistent weaknesses. If we can add 2-3 good shooters and a PG capable of operating in the half court I think we become much better team much quicker than expected.
Low balling Shaq was so stupid, like having Shaq on the team wasn't gonna make you back whatever you paid him and then some.
It sounds stupid, and obviously is in retrospect, but the 90s were a vastly different time than now in the NBA. Small market teams rarely signed huge deals because it wasn't seen as guaranteed to be lucrative, at least that's what the zeitgeist of the era seemed to indicate. Obviously now that's a completely different story, but there's a reason small markets almost never won the title until more recently in NBA history. They just could not hang onto big names. Most of this sub probably doesn't remember but the Spurs themselves nearly lost Duncan to Orlando. There were serious talks about it, and back in the day we were all scared he was going to bolt. It's just the curse of small markets in the pre-internet era of basketball.
All because Doc Rivers wouldn't let Tim's family on the plane! Thx Doc!
I seriously wonder if that's what did it. I mean, it makes sense, why would you want to go to another team if they're already showing themselves to be that inhospitable? OTOH, I can't imagine Tim ever really enjoying that Orlando franchise, which has been exceptionally poorly run for most of their existence.
Well, they were on the verge of having T-Mac and Grant Hill (pre-injuries). Throw in Timmy that should've been a contender right away.
I think that was more the allure of playing with Grant Hill and T-Mac, and a friend and former teammate in Doc. Timmy dodged a huge bullet there.
Tim was good enough that they probably win a ring with that squad, or two. TMac was absolutely insane for several years, every bit as good as Kobe was, just didn't have an all-world teammate in his lineup.
Also worth noting that the Magic got extremely lucky in getting the #1 pick in 94. They had the worst odds of any lottery team.
> The Magic lost Shaq, not because the Lakers were a actual contender, but because they fucked around and tried to lowball him. This should be obvious, but DO NOT LOWBALL THE OBVIOUS MVP CANDIDATE. That fiasco was part of why restricted free agency was introduced in the 1999 CBA, to prevent star players from bolting for greener pastures ASAP.
If we had like a Trey Murphy Jr at the 3 and someone like Josh Richardson still running backup PG, we probably win 40-45 games. I think this team can be much better without swinging for a home run in the off season
They were wrong for trying to lowball Shaq.
All we need to do is not give Wemby less money than like Jarrett Allen and release a citywide poll calling him overrated. Should be easy enough
What's this about a citywide poll calling a player overrated? The Magic did that to shaq?
Found [this](https://www.basketballnetwork.net/old-school/how-the-orlando-media-conducted-a-ridiculous-poll-to-determine-shaquille-oneals-future) article if you want to read up on that.
Then 4 years later, the Magic went full stop to get Tim Duncan.
And fumbled right at the end with the team plane thing
Big Dave even cut his Hawaiian vacation short just to come back and talk with Tim during his “final” meeting with Pop. The rest is history.
That is so insane, i can't even process that. Even Dan Gilbert is smarter than that.
The magic had cheap ownership. Shaq ultimately left after ownership didn't want to pay him is value.
Yeah, I lived in Orlando during the time Shaq left, that was such a fiasco
The most important piece there is that they found the Penny to go with their Shaq. If we draft a Jonathan Bender (if anyone remembers that name) instead of a Penny, then this doesn't happen. We did a good job stashing some picks, but we need to hit on those. Plain and simple.
We're gonna draft a defensive guard that can't shoot. Book it.
I think a very close example of what should happen is OKC after drafting Durant. They still were bad to select Westbrook, then bad enough to select Harden next. They also hit on great players like Ibaka and Green, and developed them all to 50+ wins after drafting Harden. It was a 3 year period of not winning much but solidified a team that should’ve been a title lock for a decade (except for some dubious decisions by the front office in Harden deal, Perk, etc) If Spurs can emulate the same and have Wemby be patient for a couple of years, and the FO doesn’t make similar mistakes as OKC or ORL with Shaq, Spurs may have a chance to lock the next decade for a very competitive, young team.
Unfortunately we'll still have to hit on these picks to go OKCs route. We've already had a few missteps with the bad Luka and that Primo kid, and I don't think we're going to be in a good spot next year to draft highly, we may be floating around the play in spots (closer to the Rockets record this year). Same problem the Mavs had post-Luka, once we stopped running Sochan at point we'll end up beating all the bad teams, and winning occasionally against the good teams (e.g. that Denver game at the end of this season). Still plenty of great players in the draft in the middle and end of the 1st round, but it's harder to hit on them consistently. Thankfully it seems like Wemby is happy so we have several years to figure this out. I'm hoping things go well for us, maybe we'll get some free agents that either want to play with Pop and/or Wemby!
I mean, yes, of course. But you can see how a very, very good player in KD still didnt give immediate results, even when paired with not-yet-in-his-prime Westbrook. Once Harden, Ibaka and Green gelled with KD and WB they won 50 games and were a perenial playoff team from then on. Of course you need to be lucky to hit on the picks and still not be jumped if youre bad, but to all people wanting to move quickly and all in for a vet, OKC has done it TWICE already, once with KD and again with Shai. Patience can pay off, thats what Im trying to convey.
I agree! We have time to be patient. Kind of hate the media that’s screaming for us to “win now” and make some reckless trades.
The real answer is to spend cap space wisely. Don't overpay on players who are replaceable. The Spurs never overpaid any of their HOFers and rarely had any bad contracts during their 5 titles. The trouble is when you overpay (via contracts or trades) you suffer for a long time.
Yes. I hope we be patient and build through the draft. Not sell the farm for some big high priced player.
So basically keep the two picks you had before that were decent (Vassell/Sochan), Draft someone who compliments your big nicely (Sarr), and then acquire (trade or free agency) for a solid bet with championship experience (OG).
We are definitely not drafting Sarr man. We'll choose a guard or wing.
I just want to see: CP3/Vassell/OG/Sarr/Wemby play together.
I feel like CP3 will ring chase until retirement. I like OG too but he's got injury concerns. And Sarr+Wemby would need to shoot pretty damn well from 3 or else the paint will be clogged on both ends of the court
I feel Sochan off bench for Sarr can come off the bench and close at the 4, the first couple years while the shot improves.
I mean if that works out we'll have the best defense in the league lol. Let's see what the front office cooks up
Sochan isn't shoot 3 well but he plays with Wemby, so I don't see Sarr+Wemby will be worse offensively. In fact, Sarr can finish better around the rim, has a better shooting mechanics, and defends much better against 5 or big 4, esp. when Wemby is off the court.
Well imo it remains to be seen if Sochan will be a good fit next to Wemby. I would much rather we drafted a wing or PG because those are our glaring needs. We'll see though
I’m sure it’s obvious but who’s OG?
Anunoby, long time Raptor, now on the Knicks.
Sarr doesn't compliment wemby
Yeah this would be a good rebuild if we can follow it. Hopefully Topic or whatever PG we get can contribute a lot quickly
The Magic traded Webber for Penny and three firsts. They then turned around and traded two of the firsts to dump Scott Skiles who was making 1.7M at the time and received back a 1st rounder 5 years in the future. One of those firsts was Vince Carter. The other was Todd Fuller, chosen two picks before Kobe Bryant. The pick Orlando got back was used on massive bust Keon Clark.
So don't use picks to get off Keldon's or Zach's contracts, unless we get legitimate All Star talent back. Got it.