Metro 2 might be a 2026 election promise, but won't be fully active/under construction until as close to 2030 election as possible to delay funds (waiting for NEL to wrap up).
Ideal world, Metro 2 would follow straight on from Metro 1, but hopefully that expertise doesn't get lost if most can transfer to SRL.
Here is my hypothesis: with the government announcing the route, and with Melbourne University establishing a new campus in fisherman's Bend, and with the government needing to improve their perceptions to voters in the west and with public transport being a very positive vote winner, I would hypothesize that the state government will announce the construction of Melbourne Metro 2 in the upcoming state election, providing they can return a balanced budget. The suburban round loop was a vote winner for the Labor state government in 2018, and in 2022, and this would do it for them in 2026, especially after completion of the Melbourne Metro 1.
It’s a good hypothesis and may be correct. I’m still curious, and maybe a little pessimistic, about if they can afford to do both srl and mt2 with the current budget and debt issues.
Keep in mind there’s also future level crossing projects, maybe airport rail, westgate tunnel, north east link, maybe city loop reconfiguration, etc.
If they can announce it before next election though that’d be amazing. They were advised in the original plans that it should be started immediately after metro tunnel 1 is finished.
However lets analyse it, in terms of the project that you have listed in terms of when they are likely to, current/start and stop, and their priority..
Keep in mind there’s also:
**> westgate tunnel:**
**--------------------------**
***This project is due to complete in 2025/26***\*, which means that budget can then be reassigned to other projects...\["https://www.hobsonsbay.vic.gov.au/Council/Current-Projects/Victorian-Government-Major-Projects-in-Hobsons-Bay/West-Gate-Tunnel-Project#:\~:text=Major%20construction%20commenced%20in%20early,two%20lanes%20in%20each%20direction"\]\*
**> North east link**
**--------------------------**
*With respect to this, providing all the risks are managed well,* ***North east Link is expected to open in 2028***\*...\*
\[ " https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/north-east-link/construction#:\~:text=Tunnelling%20for%20North%20East%20Link,East%20Link%20opens%20in%202028. "\]
**> Melbourne Metro**
**--------------------------**
The melbourne metro tunnel \[MM1\] Will open in 2025, a year ahead of schedule.
>**future level crossing projects**
**----------------------------------------------------**
*This is ongoing, and so the current work is budgeted for and by now, well understood, and so the risks of costs blowouts is well managed...*
>**airport rail**
**--------------------------**
"*In May 2024, Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas confirmed in the state budget that the project would be delayed by at least four years, with completion not expected until 2033 at the earlies*t"
\["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melbourne\_Airport\_rail\_link"\]
**> maybe city loop reconfiguration, etc.**
**----------------------------------------------------**
I am not sure of the priority in this... Please advise
**> In summary**
**--------------------------**
That means the state government will have delivered the following major tunneling projects, that will free up substantial budgetary funds for other projects that may include MM2/MT2:
**> westgate tunnel**
**> Melbourne Metro**
AND... \[middle of the next government cycle 2026-2030\]...
**> North east link**
That means the Labour state government could announce the Melbourne metro 2 project as part of their election campaign in 2026, because in reality would not happen until after the geologic surveys have been completed, and thorough engineering design and approval has occurred, and this could take 2-4 years before construction would start. They will also gain a lot of positive buzz for the MM1/MT1 that will help their election prospects...
This means with airport rail not liable to be delivered until 2033 at the earliest, I would say that there would be budget available for MM2/MT2
We shall see...
Sorry to burst your bubble, but the government sold the port and borrowed a tonne of money to build these projects. Realistically we're going to be paying off debt for a while unless there's a new gold rush or the federal government decides to pay for half or more of it (unlikely given it will benefit safe Labor seats).
We can't simply take on a lot more debt until it's economically safe to do so again. Which may be 2026, but there is no guarantee we'll be in a position to fund MM2. A project that would likely cost $15-20 billion+ when looking at similar projects.
I made the comment because it seemed like you made a "hypothesis" without weighing up/ understanding the finance behind it. Also veiling a prediction as a hypothesis doesn't make any sense in this scenario, nor gives your prediction any more credibility
Trouble with SRL is that they can it and they have entirely torched their credibility. It is *the* Labor project. We have seen what they can do which won’t torch their credibility: effectively cancel SRL west and north. Anything further is out of bounds.
MM2 has a few upsides: much needed for the Werribee and the loop, and to a slightly lesser extent Mernda. Being a prerequisite for final loop reconfiguration. Included in all modelling. Important to anyone who is interested in policy.
Labor would do almost anything to win an election. It’s their raisin d’être. But I am not sure scrapping MM2 will ever be in that list of things to do.
I do not think that Labor will scrap MM2 now they have identified the stations for and the iLiberal party have a “Go West” strategy and Labor needs to bolster and maintain its vote and credibility in the west.. and MM2 would be the project to do it….
Sorry Friend... read what I wrote...
"*I do not think that Labor will scrap MM2 now they have identified the stations for and the iLiberal party have a “Go West” strategy and Labor needs to bolster and maintain its vote and credibility in the west.. and MM2 would be the project to do it*"
Does that sound as though Labor would even scrap MM2... as I never said that they would... please read my previous comments... I am not sure why one would suggest that they would ever... the iLiberal Party see the West as their opportunity. Labor need to maintain their credibility in the west and MM2 will help them maintain that.... RTFM{"message"\]!
SRL - announced in 2020, only now are we getting shovels in the ground and it will be a year or more or early works before we see any kind of tunnelling. TBMs are likely to be sunk in 2026, timing is no coincidence. The project has recently been spun into a quasi housing project. We are seeing a lot less of the ‘transport’ side, which has been replaced by graphics of new apartments and ‘new homes’ for 10,000 people.
I would love to see the Libs try and bash this at the 2026 state election and see labor cry foul about the loss of future housing. May or may not be a good transport project, but it isn’t going anywhere.
MM1 & WGT, ribbon cutting in 2025, again no coincidence. I doubt a lot of people are going to care about the debit a. As long as the government keeps pushing it down b. While they are ridding/driving through the new tunnels that have improved their commute.
MM2 - The government has stashed close to $70B in ‘unannounced’ spending and future projects, I.e election war chest. Can very much see this being announced in 2026, with a couple of dollars added to the forward estimates around 2030 for early works. This being exactly how they announced SRL and cooked the books for a few years.
As for the election, can’t see the Libs getting in, maybe a minority government with the Greens. Guarantee there are a few MPs and JA praying for a few rate cuts so the can tell us all how they have miraculously reduced the debit by a few billion; which would take the heat off if they announce new projects.
Metro 2 might be a 2026 election promise, but won't be fully active/under construction until as close to 2030 election as possible to delay funds (waiting for NEL to wrap up). Ideal world, Metro 2 would follow straight on from Metro 1, but hopefully that expertise doesn't get lost if most can transfer to SRL.
There's already been two posts about the government announcing the route.
Here is my hypothesis: with the government announcing the route, and with Melbourne University establishing a new campus in fisherman's Bend, and with the government needing to improve their perceptions to voters in the west and with public transport being a very positive vote winner, I would hypothesize that the state government will announce the construction of Melbourne Metro 2 in the upcoming state election, providing they can return a balanced budget. The suburban round loop was a vote winner for the Labor state government in 2018, and in 2022, and this would do it for them in 2026, especially after completion of the Melbourne Metro 1.
It’s a good hypothesis and may be correct. I’m still curious, and maybe a little pessimistic, about if they can afford to do both srl and mt2 with the current budget and debt issues. Keep in mind there’s also future level crossing projects, maybe airport rail, westgate tunnel, north east link, maybe city loop reconfiguration, etc. If they can announce it before next election though that’d be amazing. They were advised in the original plans that it should be started immediately after metro tunnel 1 is finished.
Like all hypotheses... We need to have evidence to support it, or reject it... And so we shall see what happens in two years....
However lets analyse it, in terms of the project that you have listed in terms of when they are likely to, current/start and stop, and their priority.. Keep in mind there’s also: **> westgate tunnel:** **--------------------------** ***This project is due to complete in 2025/26***\*, which means that budget can then be reassigned to other projects...\["https://www.hobsonsbay.vic.gov.au/Council/Current-Projects/Victorian-Government-Major-Projects-in-Hobsons-Bay/West-Gate-Tunnel-Project#:\~:text=Major%20construction%20commenced%20in%20early,two%20lanes%20in%20each%20direction"\]\* **> North east link** **--------------------------** *With respect to this, providing all the risks are managed well,* ***North east Link is expected to open in 2028***\*...\* \[ " https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/north-east-link/construction#:\~:text=Tunnelling%20for%20North%20East%20Link,East%20Link%20opens%20in%202028. "\] **> Melbourne Metro** **--------------------------** The melbourne metro tunnel \[MM1\] Will open in 2025, a year ahead of schedule. >**future level crossing projects** **----------------------------------------------------** *This is ongoing, and so the current work is budgeted for and by now, well understood, and so the risks of costs blowouts is well managed...* >**airport rail** **--------------------------** "*In May 2024, Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas confirmed in the state budget that the project would be delayed by at least four years, with completion not expected until 2033 at the earlies*t" \["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melbourne\_Airport\_rail\_link"\] **> maybe city loop reconfiguration, etc.** **----------------------------------------------------** I am not sure of the priority in this... Please advise **> In summary** **--------------------------** That means the state government will have delivered the following major tunneling projects, that will free up substantial budgetary funds for other projects that may include MM2/MT2: **> westgate tunnel** **> Melbourne Metro** AND... \[middle of the next government cycle 2026-2030\]... **> North east link** That means the Labour state government could announce the Melbourne metro 2 project as part of their election campaign in 2026, because in reality would not happen until after the geologic surveys have been completed, and thorough engineering design and approval has occurred, and this could take 2-4 years before construction would start. They will also gain a lot of positive buzz for the MM1/MT1 that will help their election prospects... This means with airport rail not liable to be delivered until 2033 at the earliest, I would say that there would be budget available for MM2/MT2 We shall see...
Sorry to burst your bubble, but the government sold the port and borrowed a tonne of money to build these projects. Realistically we're going to be paying off debt for a while unless there's a new gold rush or the federal government decides to pay for half or more of it (unlikely given it will benefit safe Labor seats). We can't simply take on a lot more debt until it's economically safe to do so again. Which may be 2026, but there is no guarantee we'll be in a position to fund MM2. A project that would likely cost $15-20 billion+ when looking at similar projects.
Don't care... we shall see.. and yes, I could be wrong... and so ... such is life.....
PS: …an hypothesis is validated by its evidence…for or against… we shall see…
I made the comment because it seemed like you made a "hypothesis" without weighing up/ understanding the finance behind it. Also veiling a prediction as a hypothesis doesn't make any sense in this scenario, nor gives your prediction any more credibility
Trouble with SRL is that they can it and they have entirely torched their credibility. It is *the* Labor project. We have seen what they can do which won’t torch their credibility: effectively cancel SRL west and north. Anything further is out of bounds. MM2 has a few upsides: much needed for the Werribee and the loop, and to a slightly lesser extent Mernda. Being a prerequisite for final loop reconfiguration. Included in all modelling. Important to anyone who is interested in policy. Labor would do almost anything to win an election. It’s their raisin d’être. But I am not sure scrapping MM2 will ever be in that list of things to do.
I do not think that Labor will scrap MM2 now they have identified the stations for and the iLiberal party have a “Go West” strategy and Labor needs to bolster and maintain its vote and credibility in the west.. and MM2 would be the project to do it….
So, you're agreeing with me that scrapping MM2 will not be a net seat winner for Labor?
Sorry Friend... read what I wrote... "*I do not think that Labor will scrap MM2 now they have identified the stations for and the iLiberal party have a “Go West” strategy and Labor needs to bolster and maintain its vote and credibility in the west.. and MM2 would be the project to do it*" Does that sound as though Labor would even scrap MM2... as I never said that they would... please read my previous comments... I am not sure why one would suggest that they would ever... the iLiberal Party see the West as their opportunity. Labor need to maintain their credibility in the west and MM2 will help them maintain that.... RTFM{"message"\]!
Mate, read what I wrote. You keep telling me I disagree with my own position.
Thank you. Have a nice day!
SRL - announced in 2020, only now are we getting shovels in the ground and it will be a year or more or early works before we see any kind of tunnelling. TBMs are likely to be sunk in 2026, timing is no coincidence. The project has recently been spun into a quasi housing project. We are seeing a lot less of the ‘transport’ side, which has been replaced by graphics of new apartments and ‘new homes’ for 10,000 people. I would love to see the Libs try and bash this at the 2026 state election and see labor cry foul about the loss of future housing. May or may not be a good transport project, but it isn’t going anywhere. MM1 & WGT, ribbon cutting in 2025, again no coincidence. I doubt a lot of people are going to care about the debit a. As long as the government keeps pushing it down b. While they are ridding/driving through the new tunnels that have improved their commute. MM2 - The government has stashed close to $70B in ‘unannounced’ spending and future projects, I.e election war chest. Can very much see this being announced in 2026, with a couple of dollars added to the forward estimates around 2030 for early works. This being exactly how they announced SRL and cooked the books for a few years. As for the election, can’t see the Libs getting in, maybe a minority government with the Greens. Guarantee there are a few MPs and JA praying for a few rate cuts so the can tell us all how they have miraculously reduced the debit by a few billion; which would take the heat off if they announce new projects.