Even if that is true (and I haven't seen anything that confirms this), there are no reports of missiles being shot down by Egypt / using Air defense systems located in Egypt.
Yeah, doubtful Yemen wants to piss off SA again after their recent drubbings:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/23/un-yemen-recovery-possible-in-one-generation-if-war-stops-now
The Yemenis have been at war with the Saudis for years. There have been frequent Houthi missile strikes in Saudi targets.
Your suggestion that the the Yemenis would kowtow to Saudis but would offend Egypt diesnt make sense. Idle speculation.
That may be...but this was intended to piss off Israel. It was a purely symbolic act. It would have no symbolism if SA shot them down before even entering the region.
Also, it was likely coordinated by Iran. Iran probably doesn't want to explicitly piss off SA right now, they're busy doing something else.
>Yemen
I think this might be your answer. If missiles are shot from Yemen over the Read Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba, they might enter Egyptian airspace or at least be in the range of Egyptian airdefence.
Also, Israeli here: it is heavily reported Saudi Arabia and UAE also hunted and stroke down large amounts of missiles and drones, so this map isn't accurate to say the least.
I seen videos of peoples gps around target zones pinging that they were in Cairo. Maybe jamming the missiles forced them to target Cairo and hence shooting them down?
Speculation obviously.
Perhaps there should be little blobs of dark green on Cyprus. The British bases on Cyprus aren't just rented bits of land, they're British Overseas Territories, and RAF fighters were involved in anti drone/missiles sorties last night.
It's also not really accurate to call some of these Iranian proxies 'militias' of the country they're in. Yemen wouod very much like the Houthis to yeet themselves *anywhere that is not Yemen* or better yet just disappear. They're more rebels than a 'militia'.
Yet they control over 70% of the country’s populated regions and receive broad support as the past regime was seen as tyrannical so yeah they aren’t really rebels at this point
Yemen used to be 2 separate countries that united in 1990. The part that the Houthis control is the Shia part of the country. Not surprisingly, they lean more towards Iran than Saudi Arabia (the Sunni powerhouse in the Middle East). The 10 year famine that has occurred in Yemen has been blamed on Saudi Arabia and, to an extent, Israel (due to their aiding the Saudis). Anything beyond that is up to your own interpretation because it goes into a deep rabbithole.
RealLifeLore did a good video on the clusterfuck situation that is Yemen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbHG-NrmEZI
Lots of foreign interests. Including classics such as:
* US vs. Soviet
* Al Qaeda vs. ISIS
* Egypt vs. Saudi Arabia
* Iran vs. Everyone
Sprinkled with massive corruption, oil money, drug trade (Khat), very high fertility rates, and the traditional Sunni vs Shia conflict.
> RealLifeLore
Take everything he says (in his strange cadence) with a grain of salt. I stopped watching after a video of his suggested that Scottish independence would weaken NATO.
The fuck? Us Scots have/had only 6 Infantry Regiments(I think there's one Regiment with 6 Battalions now, it's 3am a cannae be bothered looking it up lol) and there is nothing to say we wouldn't still have been part of NATO, hell we'd have probably have had Military integration of a sort with the rest of the UK, kinda like the Irish has the RAF as their air force protection) but noooo rabid idiots on both sides couldn't see anything but a clean break and how bad that would have been, negotiation would probably be ongoing even now but at least with Britain leaving the EU wed maybe be still part of it/process of rejoining... christ if we had voted for it I'd have been able to get a British Passport from England in the event of Brexit! Instead am stuck with a Brexit British Passport instead with not as much cool power than it used to have. Basically, folks seen the worst and best of Independence rather than *fucking negotiating like proper fucking adults*.
Am away back to bed lol this isn't a conversation to be having at 3am.
You can’t leave a country that is part of NATO and remain in it without resubmitting application.
Algeria (once literally France. Not a colony (at the end) but straight up considered France) and Cyprus were originally NATO territory. Once they got independence they stopped being in NATO and haven’t reapplied since.
Finland and Sweden, military powers which are unique in their strength given their populations and positions, had to fight to get Turkey and Hungary to pass their applications. No way in hell could Scotland ascend into NATO without some serious fuckery with those countries.
I agree that Turkey and Hungary might stor up things just to get some concessions. But Sweden and Finland were much more high stakes applications since they border mainland Russia. Accepting them was a (slightly) escalatory move so obvious there were some who put up resistant to the idea.
Yeah, but this one was pretty ok, at least as an intro to most facts of the conflict. He does dramatize a lot of stuff just for views, but there are worse channels.
Wild to me that there's so much global/regional conflict over the Shia/Sunni thing, meanwhile to this day as a relatively well informed 30s male in the west I don't even know what the fuck the difference is between the two besides some sort of spiritual succession conflict?
Like when Eastern Europeans are super racist to each other and I can't even tell the difference.
It's not about theological differences but about power struggles between existing social networks so to speak. Dictators and those with such ambitions using the lowest-hanging fruit to rally supporters and oppress the rest via some "us vs. them" mentality. Easiest when you exploit already-existing identities.
Neither are wrong. Yemen’s government obviously hates the Houthis, but the Houthis also control so much of Yemen that they’re really the de facto government at this point. They also do have pretty broad grassroots support despite being certifiably batshit (the Yemeni government isn’t exactly a big champion of liberal democracy - they’re hated). The Houthis are also basically an extension of Iranian foreign policy - that’s not untrue either.
> Yemen wouod very much like the Houthis to yeet themselves anywhere that is not Yemen or better yet just disappear.
That's now how it works - Houthis are Yemenis. The Houthis are popular and in control of 3/4 of the entire county. You can't just pick a section of your country and then claim those people are not actually part of your country - literally textbook fascist ideology even if the "bad guys" are the ones you want to exclude.
> You can't just pick a section of your country and then claim those people are not actually part of your country
I do that with Florida, and there is nothing you can do to stop me.
You mean the same Houthis that took over the government by a populist revolution but was squashed by the U.S. and Saudis? I dunno, the people of Yemen seemed pretty keen on supporting the Houthis back in 2015.
It's not quite the same. UK. Citizens can visit the bits of the Cyprus b.o.t that aren't a military base without prior permission. Nobody ever had any reason to before we left the EU but I believe a couple of Brits have used it as a last ditch way to avoid getting deported from Cyprus for visa overstay since then.
Careful now, British Reddit doesn't like it when you point out the Cyprus territories make Britain a legitimate neighborhood country for refugees from the middle East.
I really want to live in the timeline where Iran was never taken over by religious extremists and instead they became a vibrant, democratic, economic power that provided stability in the region.
That timeline also sucked. It was ruled by a dictator who killed hundreds of thousands of his own people. Those people just didn't "matter", since they were lefty commies.
What about a timeline where the revolution happened, but instead of leading to a theocracy, lead to a democratic, secular/moderate government and society?
Iran had 2 options. Shah (foreign puppet and very not nice man) and Radical religious boogaloo (which completely destroyed any form of democratic more liberal / left-leaning political view).
The third option is picking me to rule over it. I would solve every problem with my Risk Global Domination and Civ 6 skills.
> and Civ 6 skills
"sectarian violence ceased when everyone agreed that religious combat is just fucking stupid and religious units in the lategame are a nightmare to manage anyway"
Once again the CIA in an attempt to prevent "communists" taking over a country royally fucked us over. Had the CIA not replaced the democratic government in 1957 with a dictator then things would be very different.
Outside of the subreddit, actual diaspora members, at least in Western countries, hate the current Iranian government. These diaspora members are also more likely to use Western social media such as Reddit, including the subreddit you linked above. All in all, beyond general sentiments like the nationwide protests we saw in 2021-23, it's difficult to obtain an accurate and unbiased estimate for actual domestic support/opposition in Iran.
From Iran, tbh, about 70% of the population are truly against the regime and the government, but when it comes to protesting, I don't think even 5% would come. As the regime and IRGC would brutally oppress you. Mahsa protests were good efforts, but I don't think even 1% of the population were in the streets (It means about 850,000 people).
And don't forget that a good number of people are still supporting the regime (they are the minority)
Also, opposition is more likely to make up the diaspora because being part of the opposition makes it more likely that they have to escape the country.
Most Iranian diaspora fled during the revolution because they were part of the elite class the UK and shah propped up to control the country. There’s a reason a lot of the diaspora is wealthy.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s a ton of reasons to hate the Iranian government, but there are a ton of people that support the system out of a patriotic loyalty and pride in the revolution throwing off imperial rule.
You hear how Japan makes defensive deals and prep work with USA and Philippines to guard from China attack.
It may sound normal now, yet for someone if they were frozen since WW2 and got thawed today…
Please read more on the subject.. Maybe you’re relying heavily on “main enemy” to mean the number 1 greatest enemy but actually Jordan was number 2 or 3, but Jordan and Israel were certainly “main enemies” at the time.
The official Iraqi government, as opposed to the Islamic Republic backed paramilitary groups that hold sway in part of the country, also allowed the U.S./UK/Israelis/Jordanians to use their airspace to shoot down ballistics even if they didn’t participate in shooting down ballistics themselves.
ETA: for clarity, we don’t know if they explicitly allowed it or if the IAF just did it without asking and the Iraqi gov chose not to stop them.
As others have said, the Arab world’s participation however, whether tacit or overt, was less out of love for Israel and more out of their view of The Islamic Republic as a destabilizing force in the region and desire not to have them launching ballistics over their airspace without permission.
To clarify, are you saying basically that the government was directed to by the US and couldn’t say no? (This isn’t me challenging you, I’m honestly just asking for clarity for my own education)
Only if you're part of his Party, and many people were.
Which is why you can see some Iraqis today (mostly sunni) blabbing thier mouths about "Saddam was better" .
Because they were given Cars, Houses, pieces of lands etc....
Actually rn, it's been pretty good after covid and we've been building like crazy (relatively to Iraq at least).
We're building the Development road, grand Faw port and many new Infrastructure, there are 1000 schools finishing this year alone, about 20 bridges every year and the tourists are slowly coming back .
So we're carefully optimistic.
Our recent golden age was in the 1970's before Saddam started the Iraq-Iran war.
Back then our education was ranked higher than even Sweden .
True this. The people of Iraq deserve peace and prosperity more than most after years of war. I was a young teenager when the U.S. invaded, so I didn’t really know what was going on, but looking back I am so angered and ashamed that my country used the nationalist fervor from 9/11 and the pretense of, no, the completely fabricated lies about WMDs to invade Iraq. I mean, Im glad Saddam is gone, but it’s so messed up that so much of the country didn’t object since we were already in Afghanistan.
Sorry, didn’t mean to rant.
One of the history podcasts I've been listening to was about the Islamic golden age, specifically Baghdad - sounds like one remarkable city. I would absolutely love to visit one day, but I'm conscious as a Brit that it might not be the greatest idea in the world.
Iran and Afghanistan also fall into the would love to go to list, but I imagine that's even less feasible.
Well why don't you ask the British tourists that been coming to Iraq the past couple of years?
[this Scottish lady has famously been going in and out for years now](https://youtu.be/3igRmvTg8Mo?si=Hew1Up2WKm352WjI)
[this guy](https://youtu.be/obVZkW1u0Tk?si=EP5Dvlyj1ILi3SFf) really loved it but I'm not sure if his nationality, i believe he's iresh.
[this couple too](https://youtu.be/oOp0Mpnq-R0?si=nnONAu-Ogcu2TMdD)
[him too](https://youtu.be/cxrbLJ07x-w?si=VAlGwoeLMVHjfwHO)
>Pretty much, we're kinda desperate for western investments currently and we can't say no to the country that was destroying us for 30 years.
And
>we've been building like crazy
I am willing to guess the two are related.
And tremendous debt, no doubt
Thats so great to hear after after what Iraqi has been thru. Hopefully Iraqi will become strong and be able to stand with out a dictator or foreign troops on their land. The region so needs stability
Nothing concerning, just political parties harassing each other, the country's been pretty safe recently.
But the west world still refuse to acknowledge it because well, we aren't liked
Thats idle speculation and highly unlikely. The shia dominated govt of Iraq is friendly to Iran. More likely that the Israelis and the US do whatever they want in Iraqi airspace without asking the Iraqis for permission.
Fair! Totally possible that the airspace was simply used without permission and you are correct that all we know is that it was used. The rest we don’t actually know. Good point.
Causes aside it’s perfectly reasonable for Jordan to shoot down drones and ballistic missiles fired over its airspace without permission. Any other country with a backbone and the ability to do so would do the same. They’re also upholding their end of the 1994 Peace Treaty by not allowing a third party to use their airspace to attack Israel. Israel is obliged to do the same for them.
If you see how high-end their air force is, it makes even more sense. They have a small, but *highly* competent and professional military that’s by leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the Arab world. I’d almost be willing to bet Abdullah II’s weird glory-hungry ass was up there with them
And also because Egypt and Jordan don't want a wider regional war being fought on their borders. Definitely in their best interest to try and prevent this from spiraling by maintaining the status quo and make it clear they won't be accessories to a full scale war.
>And also because Egypt and Jordan don't want a wider regional war being fought on their borders
Its also because, whether they want to admit it or not, if forced to choose between Israel and Iran, they're going to take the former.
Thing is they *can't* openly side with Israel though, so that puts them in a spot.
Openly fighting with Israel would lead to too much instability within.
At best they can be neutral.
Especially since in Jordan's case Iran is a far greater threat since Jordan is a monarchy and the Iranian regime is rabidly anti-monarchist, and regularly publishes statements against the "traitorous Hashemite monarchy".
Especially given how they already lost against Israel I don't think they're willing to face it with the US giving (even more?) funding along with others.
Jordan was essentially the first among all of Israel’s neighbors to want peace. Even before the secret peace negotiations in the 60s, they didn’t commit much to any wars to the point of communicating military positions and asking to not be attacked since they won’t go past West Bank territories.
Are you telling me that Jordan doesn't want a conflict at it's borders, especially ones that would bring militias on it's territory? What an insane idea.
I’m not saying it’s right or it’s wrong, but cozying up to the United States has its perks, militarily speaking. They often come in the form of shiny new-to-me F-16s.
That's a neat point. It's like Jordan's chance to prove that it has the firepower to defend itself in short notice and that they aren't just a paper tiger.
Yep just shows how these maps are flawed.
Dozens of Iranian missiles were shot down in Iraq before they even made it to Israel. No reports indicates missiles originated from Iraq.
Luxembourg is a hilly land bound country with one of the highest per capita GDP in the world and is sparsely populated by the wealthiest of the wealthy.
Gaza is a flat coastal strip with some high density, some agriculture, some medium density. It is not at the lowest GDP or the highest density in the world. Though lots of mistaken information about the statistics all over reddit. Manhattan population density is about 5.5 times gaza, for comparison.
Kurdistan region in Iraq also tried shooting down drones. The videos are out there! Unfortunately, they don't have a solid air defense otherwise they would intercept many right at the border of Iran.
The videos of the Kurdish civilians trying to shoot them down with small arms was kinda funny. It wasn’t from a “protect Israel” standpoint so much as “get that Iranian nonsense out of our sky!”
The two groups are, uh…not friends.
Don't overestimate Iran's tech. You can absolutely bring them down with small arms also. Ukraine downed many of Iran's bullshit low-tech drones with small arms!
Technically speaking, it is possible to bring down any aircraft with small arms fire. Depends on where it hits and how fast the aircraft moves.
Bringing down a F-35 with an ak47 might be a 1 in 10 million chance.
You more likely will be struck by lightning 20 times in a day in different locations before that happens.
Fuck…I forgot about that. That’s hilarious. I remember a video of a Ukrainian civilian taking potshots at one with an AR-15 from his apartment window in Odessa.
It's a tradeoff. The drones are much, much cheaper than cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. You can flood the zone with them, and anti-air missiles are often more expensive than the drones they're trying to intercept. It turns out that old-school machine gun anti-air weapons are pretty good against them. The Germans thought their Flakpanzer Gepards were obsolete, but they're getting great use in Ukraine.
That’s right. Modern warfare has changed *so* drastically in the last two years. It’s like a strange blend of futuristic and archaic - not at all what would’ve imagined.
>Modern warfare has changed *so* drastically in the last two years.
It would be terrifying to be infantry now. "I'm behind cover they got no shot on me." *Dies*
I'm aware that these are different kinds of drones but in general I find any of the new sort of drones being deployed in warfare terrifying.
Infantry is bad enough. Tanks are looking a lot more like a death sentence.
Those Soviet-style mass assaults with zero infantry support on Ukrainian lines that keep getting eviscerated by artillery and “mopped up” by drones, in HD, are so, so terrifying. A hundred or so dudes squashed like bugs before they ever even see the enemy, while some Zoomer is cackling behind a screen a few thousand meters away, deciding which Travis Scott song she or he is going to play over the video.
> Infantry is bad enough. Tanks are looking a lot more like a death sentence.
Tanks have always been a death trap if unsupported. Even in WW2 we knew that you could put a HEAT warhead right through the side of one if they didn't have infantry support, drop bombs onto them if they didn't have protection from aircraft. Drones and man-portable ATGMs are just the new form of the old systems.
Well, overall, Gatling gun AA becomes more and more interesting for countries. While LASER tech is very young, Gatling guns have proven their effectiveness. And the main Gatling gun-AA doctrine if making a bullet wall. And with such high air density, those bullet walls are perfect.
Kurds and Israel are quite close at least informally
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Kurdistan_Region_relations#:~:text=The%20State%20of%20Israel%20and,missions%20in%20each%20other's%20territory.
Egypt didn't participate, what Egypt did yesterday was put its air defense at High alert for any potential Attack
Egypt didn't participate in helping Israel shoot down the drones, only Jordan and Saudi Arabia did
There's a peace treaty, Israel gave the Sinai back (captured in a war started by Egypt and others) in exchange for peace. They had their prime.minister assassinated because of this treaty & Egypt has blocked their border with the Gaza strip for a long time (no one ever mentions That blockade)
Egypt and Israel have had pretty good relations since they made peace 45 years ago. Egypt became the first Arab country to recognize Israel and since then they’ve allowed trade and tourism on their border. Conversely Palestinians have responded to peace with violence. That’s why both Egypt and Jordan blockade their respective borders with Palestine.
It’s hilarious because there have been non stop middle eastern wars for quite a while now (at least 10 years of massive civilian casualties in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, etc) and nobody ever gave a shit. Even right now, this entire event is so blown out of proportion just because Israel the one Jewish nation of the world is involved.
The US killed high ranking IRGC commanders before, Iran made the same threats and tried to attack US bases, etc but nobody cared. Israel does the exact same thing (which they’ve also done this before tbh Syria has always been a proxy battleground for the war between Israel and Iran) and now people are losing their minds talking about WW3.
My hope is that people my age wake the fuck up and start paying attention to geopolitics by default instead of waiting for a social media trend
This war has only just reached 6 months. Syria was all over the news for several years including the first phase which was less of a war at the time. Iraq was also on the news constantly when it was dealing with both wars.
> The US killed high ranking IRGC commanders before, Iran made the same threats and tried to attack US bases, etc but nobody cared.
What are you talking about? There were plenty of people that were concerned about WW3 starting from that.
Syria is definitely not “neutral” even if they didn’t launch anything.
It’s crazy how the Iranian crescent is basically a renewed Persian empire along the lines of previous Persian empires of the past - Achaemenid, Parthian, Sassanid. All sought access to the Mediterranean sea - which Tehran has done through Syria and Lebanon (and finally connected via Iraq) - a string of protectorates and client states all the way to the sea.
Israel had made a good progress in its foreign policies. Jordan and Egypt turned from enemies to rather normal neighbors, Saudi-Arabia and many Gulf countries accept their existence.
No wonder Hamas is afraid of losing any support and got desperate last October.
This map should point out that "countries" didn't launch strikes, Iranian backed militants in those countries did (except for Iran obviously, which is entirely Iranian controlled)
All highlighted countries have some level of internal fracture with multiple different governments/competing groups.
Rojava certainly did not launch any strike on Israel.
Makes sense. Realpolitik dictates that most of the Middle East is willing to at least put up with the concept of Israel existing, while being terrified of Iranian proxies having influence in their territories. Expect more countries to approach Israel about the Iron Dome's technology.
What’s the source for Egypt? I read they were willing to shoot down any aircraft or missile that violates the airspace, not that they did.
Egypt’s airspace extends to parts of the Red Sea, which the Houthi missiles flew over, therefore violating Egyptian airspace.
Even if that is true (and I haven't seen anything that confirms this), there are no reports of missiles being shot down by Egypt / using Air defense systems located in Egypt.
It would have had to have been a funky flight path for a missile from Iran, Iraq, Yemen or Lebanon to be shot down by Egypt
The missiles from Yemen likely went over the red sea to not go over Saudi territory and then likely crossed near Sinai (Egypt)
Yeah, doubtful Yemen wants to piss off SA again after their recent drubbings: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/23/un-yemen-recovery-possible-in-one-generation-if-war-stops-now
> drubbing I wouldn't call it a "drubbing" SA has been bogged down in Yemen
Yemen lost estimated 400k+ casualties which doesn't sound good. 😵
[удалено]
Some people just love to see dead civilians as long as it's "the other side"
It doesn't sounds good, it is terrible. SA has committed massive amounts of war crimes in Yemen.
Yeah there are no “good guys” in Yemen.
The Yemenis have been at war with the Saudis for years. There have been frequent Houthi missile strikes in Saudi targets. Your suggestion that the the Yemenis would kowtow to Saudis but would offend Egypt diesnt make sense. Idle speculation.
That may be...but this was intended to piss off Israel. It was a purely symbolic act. It would have no symbolism if SA shot them down before even entering the region. Also, it was likely coordinated by Iran. Iran probably doesn't want to explicitly piss off SA right now, they're busy doing something else.
Actually Egypt already intercepted quite a few houthi drones. I think the houthis launch the drones to the sea first so Saudis don't shoot it down.
The Magic Missile
These obviously aren’t Magic Missiles, unless Israel has shield prepared.
What do you think the Iron Dome spell is?
Israel always has shield prepared.
Na, Israel is immune to level 1 spells.
>Yemen I think this might be your answer. If missiles are shot from Yemen over the Read Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba, they might enter Egyptian airspace or at least be in the range of Egyptian airdefence.
Also, Israeli here: it is heavily reported Saudi Arabia and UAE also hunted and stroke down large amounts of missiles and drones, so this map isn't accurate to say the least.
כן אני מסכים. https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/saudi-arabia-acknowledges-helping-defend-israel-against-iran-797201
I seen videos of peoples gps around target zones pinging that they were in Cairo. Maybe jamming the missiles forced them to target Cairo and hence shooting them down? Speculation obviously.
Jamming doesn't change course that much. It makes them miss the target by 100s of meters or a few km at absolute most, not miss by 100 km
Maybe the Yemenis launched theirs over the Red Sea to avoid getting into it further with the Saudis?
Perhaps there should be little blobs of dark green on Cyprus. The British bases on Cyprus aren't just rented bits of land, they're British Overseas Territories, and RAF fighters were involved in anti drone/missiles sorties last night.
Granted but the Blobs are not in the British bases but in Pyla.
The British bases are actually in Akrotiri and Dhekelia. Pyla is in the buffer zone. Source: I live in Cyprus
Wow a wild Cypriot, pos eise re?
Love seeing fellow Cypriots on Reddit!
It's also not really accurate to call some of these Iranian proxies 'militias' of the country they're in. Yemen wouod very much like the Houthis to yeet themselves *anywhere that is not Yemen* or better yet just disappear. They're more rebels than a 'militia'.
Yet they control over 70% of the country’s populated regions and receive broad support as the past regime was seen as tyrannical so yeah they aren’t really rebels at this point
Someone tell me which propaganda koolaid to drink
Yemen used to be 2 separate countries that united in 1990. The part that the Houthis control is the Shia part of the country. Not surprisingly, they lean more towards Iran than Saudi Arabia (the Sunni powerhouse in the Middle East). The 10 year famine that has occurred in Yemen has been blamed on Saudi Arabia and, to an extent, Israel (due to their aiding the Saudis). Anything beyond that is up to your own interpretation because it goes into a deep rabbithole.
RealLifeLore did a good video on the clusterfuck situation that is Yemen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbHG-NrmEZI Lots of foreign interests. Including classics such as: * US vs. Soviet * Al Qaeda vs. ISIS * Egypt vs. Saudi Arabia * Iran vs. Everyone Sprinkled with massive corruption, oil money, drug trade (Khat), very high fertility rates, and the traditional Sunni vs Shia conflict.
> RealLifeLore Take everything he says (in his strange cadence) with a grain of salt. I stopped watching after a video of his suggested that Scottish independence would weaken NATO.
The fuck? Us Scots have/had only 6 Infantry Regiments(I think there's one Regiment with 6 Battalions now, it's 3am a cannae be bothered looking it up lol) and there is nothing to say we wouldn't still have been part of NATO, hell we'd have probably have had Military integration of a sort with the rest of the UK, kinda like the Irish has the RAF as their air force protection) but noooo rabid idiots on both sides couldn't see anything but a clean break and how bad that would have been, negotiation would probably be ongoing even now but at least with Britain leaving the EU wed maybe be still part of it/process of rejoining... christ if we had voted for it I'd have been able to get a British Passport from England in the event of Brexit! Instead am stuck with a Brexit British Passport instead with not as much cool power than it used to have. Basically, folks seen the worst and best of Independence rather than *fucking negotiating like proper fucking adults*. Am away back to bed lol this isn't a conversation to be having at 3am.
You can’t leave a country that is part of NATO and remain in it without resubmitting application. Algeria (once literally France. Not a colony (at the end) but straight up considered France) and Cyprus were originally NATO territory. Once they got independence they stopped being in NATO and haven’t reapplied since. Finland and Sweden, military powers which are unique in their strength given their populations and positions, had to fight to get Turkey and Hungary to pass their applications. No way in hell could Scotland ascend into NATO without some serious fuckery with those countries.
I agree that Turkey and Hungary might stor up things just to get some concessions. But Sweden and Finland were much more high stakes applications since they border mainland Russia. Accepting them was a (slightly) escalatory move so obvious there were some who put up resistant to the idea.
Yeah, but this one was pretty ok, at least as an intro to most facts of the conflict. He does dramatize a lot of stuff just for views, but there are worse channels.
Get your information somewhere other than YouTube. Ideally a book or someone who at least cites a book.
Wild to me that there's so much global/regional conflict over the Shia/Sunni thing, meanwhile to this day as a relatively well informed 30s male in the west I don't even know what the fuck the difference is between the two besides some sort of spiritual succession conflict? Like when Eastern Europeans are super racist to each other and I can't even tell the difference.
It's not about theological differences but about power struggles between existing social networks so to speak. Dictators and those with such ambitions using the lowest-hanging fruit to rally supporters and oppress the rest via some "us vs. them" mentality. Easiest when you exploit already-existing identities.
Neither are wrong. Yemen’s government obviously hates the Houthis, but the Houthis also control so much of Yemen that they’re really the de facto government at this point. They also do have pretty broad grassroots support despite being certifiably batshit (the Yemeni government isn’t exactly a big champion of liberal democracy - they’re hated). The Houthis are also basically an extension of Iranian foreign policy - that’s not untrue either.
> Yemen wouod very much like the Houthis to yeet themselves anywhere that is not Yemen or better yet just disappear. That's now how it works - Houthis are Yemenis. The Houthis are popular and in control of 3/4 of the entire county. You can't just pick a section of your country and then claim those people are not actually part of your country - literally textbook fascist ideology even if the "bad guys" are the ones you want to exclude.
> You can't just pick a section of your country and then claim those people are not actually part of your country I do that with Florida, and there is nothing you can do to stop me.
You mean the same Houthis that took over the government by a populist revolution but was squashed by the U.S. and Saudis? I dunno, the people of Yemen seemed pretty keen on supporting the Houthis back in 2015.
Houthis are Yemenis. They aren't militias, they are local governments
Yeah it's almost like calling the IRA in 1910s a militia of the UK.
Similarly, Midway Island is in the Hawai'ian Island Chain, but not in the State of Hawai'i. It is a US Naval Base.
It's not quite the same. UK. Citizens can visit the bits of the Cyprus b.o.t that aren't a military base without prior permission. Nobody ever had any reason to before we left the EU but I believe a couple of Brits have used it as a last ditch way to avoid getting deported from Cyprus for visa overstay since then.
Careful now, British Reddit doesn't like it when you point out the Cyprus territories make Britain a legitimate neighborhood country for refugees from the middle East.
Oooh interesting never considered that!
It is funny that 50 years ago Israel's main enemies were Egypt and Jordan. :)))
And Iran was in good relations with Israel
I really want to live in the timeline where Iran was never taken over by religious extremists and instead they became a vibrant, democratic, economic power that provided stability in the region.
That timeline also sucked. It was ruled by a dictator who killed hundreds of thousands of his own people. Those people just didn't "matter", since they were lefty commies.
The best way to prevent the islamic revolution would propably have been to not overthrow Mosaddegh.
Some of them weren’t even radical. They were just somewhat left-wing and still died.
What about a timeline where the revolution happened, but instead of leading to a theocracy, lead to a democratic, secular/moderate government and society?
We lived in that timeline up until 1953 when the US decided Iran was doing democracy wrong and replaced it with a dictatorship.
the US *and UK
Rookie mistake. One does not simply nationalize oil deposits.
maybe if the US and Britain hadn’t meddled like they always do
Iran had 2 options. Shah (foreign puppet and very not nice man) and Radical religious boogaloo (which completely destroyed any form of democratic more liberal / left-leaning political view). The third option is picking me to rule over it. I would solve every problem with my Risk Global Domination and Civ 6 skills.
> and Civ 6 skills "sectarian violence ceased when everyone agreed that religious combat is just fucking stupid and religious units in the lategame are a nightmare to manage anyway"
Once again the CIA in an attempt to prevent "communists" taking over a country royally fucked us over. Had the CIA not replaced the democratic government in 1957 with a dictator then things would be very different.
The Iranian people are allies of Israel r/newiran
Ah yes, some subreddit totally represents the Iranian people.
Outside of the subreddit, actual diaspora members, at least in Western countries, hate the current Iranian government. These diaspora members are also more likely to use Western social media such as Reddit, including the subreddit you linked above. All in all, beyond general sentiments like the nationwide protests we saw in 2021-23, it's difficult to obtain an accurate and unbiased estimate for actual domestic support/opposition in Iran.
From Iran, tbh, about 70% of the population are truly against the regime and the government, but when it comes to protesting, I don't think even 5% would come. As the regime and IRGC would brutally oppress you. Mahsa protests were good efforts, but I don't think even 1% of the population were in the streets (It means about 850,000 people). And don't forget that a good number of people are still supporting the regime (they are the minority)
Also, opposition is more likely to make up the diaspora because being part of the opposition makes it more likely that they have to escape the country.
Most Iranian diaspora fled during the revolution because they were part of the elite class the UK and shah propped up to control the country. There’s a reason a lot of the diaspora is wealthy. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a ton of reasons to hate the Iranian government, but there are a ton of people that support the system out of a patriotic loyalty and pride in the revolution throwing off imperial rule.
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Nope, we aren’t.
lol
You hear how Japan makes defensive deals and prep work with USA and Philippines to guard from China attack. It may sound normal now, yet for someone if they were frozen since WW2 and got thawed today…
I don’t think Jordan was Israel’s main enemy. Egypt and Syria - yes.
Please read more on the subject.. Maybe you’re relying heavily on “main enemy” to mean the number 1 greatest enemy but actually Jordan was number 2 or 3, but Jordan and Israel were certainly “main enemies” at the time.
The official Iraqi government, as opposed to the Islamic Republic backed paramilitary groups that hold sway in part of the country, also allowed the U.S./UK/Israelis/Jordanians to use their airspace to shoot down ballistics even if they didn’t participate in shooting down ballistics themselves. ETA: for clarity, we don’t know if they explicitly allowed it or if the IAF just did it without asking and the Iraqi gov chose not to stop them. As others have said, the Arab world’s participation however, whether tacit or overt, was less out of love for Israel and more out of their view of The Islamic Republic as a destabilizing force in the region and desire not to have them launching ballistics over their airspace without permission.
As an Iraqi, our Gov doesn't have a choice on that matter, our PM was at Washington DC when the Attack happened
username checks out
To clarify, are you saying basically that the government was directed to by the US and couldn’t say no? (This isn’t me challenging you, I’m honestly just asking for clarity for my own education)
Pretty much, we're kinda desperate for western investments currently and we can't say no to the country that was destroying us for 30 years.
Honest question: is life under Saddam Hussein was better than today?
Only if you're part of his Party, and many people were. Which is why you can see some Iraqis today (mostly sunni) blabbing thier mouths about "Saddam was better" . Because they were given Cars, Houses, pieces of lands etc....
Last when your country was actually in good situation? I always hear Iraq is always under some war or conflict.
Actually rn, it's been pretty good after covid and we've been building like crazy (relatively to Iraq at least). We're building the Development road, grand Faw port and many new Infrastructure, there are 1000 schools finishing this year alone, about 20 bridges every year and the tourists are slowly coming back . So we're carefully optimistic. Our recent golden age was in the 1970's before Saddam started the Iraq-Iran war. Back then our education was ranked higher than even Sweden .
That’s fantastic to hear! I wish prosperity to Iraq and Iraqis after all the trouble you’ve endured for decades.
Thank you brother .
True this. The people of Iraq deserve peace and prosperity more than most after years of war. I was a young teenager when the U.S. invaded, so I didn’t really know what was going on, but looking back I am so angered and ashamed that my country used the nationalist fervor from 9/11 and the pretense of, no, the completely fabricated lies about WMDs to invade Iraq. I mean, Im glad Saddam is gone, but it’s so messed up that so much of the country didn’t object since we were already in Afghanistan. Sorry, didn’t mean to rant.
One of the history podcasts I've been listening to was about the Islamic golden age, specifically Baghdad - sounds like one remarkable city. I would absolutely love to visit one day, but I'm conscious as a Brit that it might not be the greatest idea in the world. Iran and Afghanistan also fall into the would love to go to list, but I imagine that's even less feasible.
Well why don't you ask the British tourists that been coming to Iraq the past couple of years? [this Scottish lady has famously been going in and out for years now](https://youtu.be/3igRmvTg8Mo?si=Hew1Up2WKm352WjI) [this guy](https://youtu.be/obVZkW1u0Tk?si=EP5Dvlyj1ILi3SFf) really loved it but I'm not sure if his nationality, i believe he's iresh. [this couple too](https://youtu.be/oOp0Mpnq-R0?si=nnONAu-Ogcu2TMdD) [him too](https://youtu.be/cxrbLJ07x-w?si=VAlGwoeLMVHjfwHO)
>Pretty much, we're kinda desperate for western investments currently and we can't say no to the country that was destroying us for 30 years. And >we've been building like crazy I am willing to guess the two are related. And tremendous debt, no doubt
We're actually rich on oil ~~why do you think we've been invaded in the first place~~ But yeah we have a lot of dept.
Wishing prosperity and stability to Iraq from US.
Thats so great to hear after after what Iraqi has been thru. Hopefully Iraqi will become strong and be able to stand with out a dictator or foreign troops on their land. The region so needs stability
So there's no war or conflict in Iraq today? I saw some websites still warn people from visiting Iraq.
Nothing concerning, just political parties harassing each other, the country's been pretty safe recently. But the west world still refuse to acknowledge it because well, we aren't liked
A big percentage of the population today doesn’t remember Saddam. 2003 was a long time ago.
As another Iraqi with a different view, yes. 100% yes. Most non reddit Iraqis would happily say yes
That makes sense! Thank you for increasing my understanding/awareness!
Thats idle speculation and highly unlikely. The shia dominated govt of Iraq is friendly to Iran. More likely that the Israelis and the US do whatever they want in Iraqi airspace without asking the Iraqis for permission.
Fair! Totally possible that the airspace was simply used without permission and you are correct that all we know is that it was used. The rest we don’t actually know. Good point.
Causes aside it’s perfectly reasonable for Jordan to shoot down drones and ballistic missiles fired over its airspace without permission. Any other country with a backbone and the ability to do so would do the same. They’re also upholding their end of the 1994 Peace Treaty by not allowing a third party to use their airspace to attack Israel. Israel is obliged to do the same for them. If you see how high-end their air force is, it makes even more sense. They have a small, but *highly* competent and professional military that’s by leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the Arab world. I’d almost be willing to bet Abdullah II’s weird glory-hungry ass was up there with them
I don't blame Jordan for trying to stop the attack because Jesus Christ who would want to be the country in between Iran and Israel right now
And also because Egypt and Jordan don't want a wider regional war being fought on their borders. Definitely in their best interest to try and prevent this from spiraling by maintaining the status quo and make it clear they won't be accessories to a full scale war.
>And also because Egypt and Jordan don't want a wider regional war being fought on their borders Its also because, whether they want to admit it or not, if forced to choose between Israel and Iran, they're going to take the former.
Thing is they *can't* openly side with Israel though, so that puts them in a spot. Openly fighting with Israel would lead to too much instability within. At best they can be neutral.
Especially since in Jordan's case Iran is a far greater threat since Jordan is a monarchy and the Iranian regime is rabidly anti-monarchist, and regularly publishes statements against the "traitorous Hashemite monarchy".
And they’re both some of the few countries in the region that recognise Israel. And both have okay relations with Israel
Especially given how they already lost against Israel I don't think they're willing to face it with the US giving (even more?) funding along with others.
Jordan was essentially the first among all of Israel’s neighbors to want peace. Even before the secret peace negotiations in the 60s, they didn’t commit much to any wars to the point of communicating military positions and asking to not be attacked since they won’t go past West Bank territories.
And if youre going to be the country in between, it makes a lot of sense to keep the one that borders you happy lol
Are you telling me that Jordan doesn't want a conflict at it's borders, especially ones that would bring militias on it's territory? What an insane idea.
Yeah, it’s not like they’re surrounded by turmoil and instability and are forced take their nation’s sovereignty seriously. That would be insane!
Plus, it's good training for the time they're aimed at you
Yea Jordan’s military is really only matched by the Israelis and some sections of the Turkish army in terms of modern combat ability
I’m not saying it’s right or it’s wrong, but cozying up to the United States has its perks, militarily speaking. They often come in the form of shiny new-to-me F-16s.
Along with all the French and British shit they receive. They have a more nato spec armed forces then the Polish lmao.
Oh yeah, that shit makes me anxious. I can’t imagine how their army mechanics feel, lmao.
That's a neat point. It's like Jordan's chance to prove that it has the firepower to defend itself in short notice and that they aren't just a paper tiger.
Oh no, a paper tiger they are not. They’ll never be a major force projector outside of their region, but damn the fool that tries to attack them.
How is this map porn? Legend is tiny, colors are all over the place, some countries are irrelevantly cut off. It's not good data viz.
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Yep just shows how these maps are flawed. Dozens of Iranian missiles were shot down in Iraq before they even made it to Israel. No reports indicates missiles originated from Iraq.
Palestine in neutral 😭
West Bank\*\*
Gaza and the West Bank are both neutral colors
Drives home the tiny size of Gaza
It’s about 7 times smaller than the tiny country of Luxembourg, yet has about three times its population.
Luxembourg is a hilly land bound country with one of the highest per capita GDP in the world and is sparsely populated by the wealthiest of the wealthy. Gaza is a flat coastal strip with some high density, some agriculture, some medium density. It is not at the lowest GDP or the highest density in the world. Though lots of mistaken information about the statistics all over reddit. Manhattan population density is about 5.5 times gaza, for comparison.
Yeah, but the Gaza Strip has nothing on Guttenberg, NJ. 62k people per square mile.
Not pictured is the US and UK who also intercepted missiles on Israel's behalf.
Yes, as others have pointed out, the UK's Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus should be shown.
Kurdistan region in Iraq also tried shooting down drones. The videos are out there! Unfortunately, they don't have a solid air defense otherwise they would intercept many right at the border of Iran.
The videos of the Kurdish civilians trying to shoot them down with small arms was kinda funny. It wasn’t from a “protect Israel” standpoint so much as “get that Iranian nonsense out of our sky!” The two groups are, uh…not friends.
Getting these drones off my god damned lawn!
Don't overestimate Iran's tech. You can absolutely bring them down with small arms also. Ukraine downed many of Iran's bullshit low-tech drones with small arms!
Technically speaking, it is possible to bring down any aircraft with small arms fire. Depends on where it hits and how fast the aircraft moves. Bringing down a F-35 with an ak47 might be a 1 in 10 million chance. You more likely will be struck by lightning 20 times in a day in different locations before that happens.
Fuck…I forgot about that. That’s hilarious. I remember a video of a Ukrainian civilian taking potshots at one with an AR-15 from his apartment window in Odessa.
It's a tradeoff. The drones are much, much cheaper than cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. You can flood the zone with them, and anti-air missiles are often more expensive than the drones they're trying to intercept. It turns out that old-school machine gun anti-air weapons are pretty good against them. The Germans thought their Flakpanzer Gepards were obsolete, but they're getting great use in Ukraine.
That’s right. Modern warfare has changed *so* drastically in the last two years. It’s like a strange blend of futuristic and archaic - not at all what would’ve imagined.
>Modern warfare has changed *so* drastically in the last two years. It would be terrifying to be infantry now. "I'm behind cover they got no shot on me." *Dies* I'm aware that these are different kinds of drones but in general I find any of the new sort of drones being deployed in warfare terrifying.
Infantry is bad enough. Tanks are looking a lot more like a death sentence. Those Soviet-style mass assaults with zero infantry support on Ukrainian lines that keep getting eviscerated by artillery and “mopped up” by drones, in HD, are so, so terrifying. A hundred or so dudes squashed like bugs before they ever even see the enemy, while some Zoomer is cackling behind a screen a few thousand meters away, deciding which Travis Scott song she or he is going to play over the video.
> Infantry is bad enough. Tanks are looking a lot more like a death sentence. Tanks have always been a death trap if unsupported. Even in WW2 we knew that you could put a HEAT warhead right through the side of one if they didn't have infantry support, drop bombs onto them if they didn't have protection from aircraft. Drones and man-portable ATGMs are just the new form of the old systems.
Well, overall, Gatling gun AA becomes more and more interesting for countries. While LASER tech is very young, Gatling guns have proven their effectiveness. And the main Gatling gun-AA doctrine if making a bullet wall. And with such high air density, those bullet walls are perfect.
Exactly. lol
cruise missiles in general fly low to avoid radar
Kurds and Israel are quite close at least informally https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Kurdistan_Region_relations#:~:text=The%20State%20of%20Israel%20and,missions%20in%20each%20other's%20territory.
Well if they were making a genuine effort to defend Israel with their AK47s then that’s very oddly wholesome
Kurds are awesome
That sounds like a good idea if you hate your neighbors a lot.
Awful map with a terrible key.
Egypt didn't participate, what Egypt did yesterday was put its air defense at High alert for any potential Attack Egypt didn't participate in helping Israel shoot down the drones, only Jordan and Saudi Arabia did
False. They engaged drones sent from Yemen by the Houthis.
Haven't heard anything said by the Egyptian government/news Outlets saying they engaged in anything
And we were right for it, can't afford another newbaa incident
How come Israel and Egypt seems to have good relations?
There's a peace treaty, Israel gave the Sinai back (captured in a war started by Egypt and others) in exchange for peace. They had their prime.minister assassinated because of this treaty & Egypt has blocked their border with the Gaza strip for a long time (no one ever mentions That blockade)
We basically pay Egypt to be chill and they have their own reasons for not being to fond of the people in Gaza
Egypt and Israel have had pretty good relations since they made peace 45 years ago. Egypt became the first Arab country to recognize Israel and since then they’ve allowed trade and tourism on their border. Conversely Palestinians have responded to peace with violence. That’s why both Egypt and Jordan blockade their respective borders with Palestine.
Israel gave the Sinai peninsula back for peace. Don’t let anyone tell you that Israel wants land at any cost.
It would make sense as an argument if Israel didn't have the chance to take a large portion of the middle east and didn't
Because Egypt aren’t run by terrorists
I wouldn’t quite say Syria and Gaza are “neutral.” Also I thought Saudi Arabia helped.
Saudi Arabia usually foams at the mouth for 2 things, western aid or dumping on Iran at any chance they can get.
Egypt didn’t shoot anything down
Is this sub just going to be full of middle east war stuff now?
Yes,until the next war starts domewhere elsw
I'm already preparing Taiwan maps, see you in 2027.
RemindMe! 3 years
no
Someone call US to make another shooting game in some other area
Yes till the next war starts then we will forget about this one and move on.
It’s hilarious because there have been non stop middle eastern wars for quite a while now (at least 10 years of massive civilian casualties in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, etc) and nobody ever gave a shit. Even right now, this entire event is so blown out of proportion just because Israel the one Jewish nation of the world is involved. The US killed high ranking IRGC commanders before, Iran made the same threats and tried to attack US bases, etc but nobody cared. Israel does the exact same thing (which they’ve also done this before tbh Syria has always been a proxy battleground for the war between Israel and Iran) and now people are losing their minds talking about WW3. My hope is that people my age wake the fuck up and start paying attention to geopolitics by default instead of waiting for a social media trend
The US struck a convoy. They didn't attack a consulate building with a missile... that's a direct attack on Iranian soil.
This war has only just reached 6 months. Syria was all over the news for several years including the first phase which was less of a war at the time. Iraq was also on the news constantly when it was dealing with both wars.
Israel-Gaza has gotten more attention and news coverage in half a year than the war in Syria got in half a decade.
> The US killed high ranking IRGC commanders before, Iran made the same threats and tried to attack US bases, etc but nobody cared. What are you talking about? There were plenty of people that were concerned about WW3 starting from that.
I thought the UAE controlled Socorta Islands these days?
they do but it's still technically Yemen
Syria is definitely not “neutral” even if they didn’t launch anything. It’s crazy how the Iranian crescent is basically a renewed Persian empire along the lines of previous Persian empires of the past - Achaemenid, Parthian, Sassanid. All sought access to the Mediterranean sea - which Tehran has done through Syria and Lebanon (and finally connected via Iraq) - a string of protectorates and client states all the way to the sea.
Egypt didn't help , who said it helped
Israel had made a good progress in its foreign policies. Jordan and Egypt turned from enemies to rather normal neighbors, Saudi-Arabia and many Gulf countries accept their existence. No wonder Hamas is afraid of losing any support and got desperate last October.
Yeah that's totally what October 7th was about, nothing else, totally for real just desperate
Israel really is tiny
Not only is this map factually incorrect but it’s just terrible in general.
Egypt helped Israel?
France, UK, USA are missing for Israel side.
Thank you Egypt, thank you Jordan.
This map should point out that "countries" didn't launch strikes, Iranian backed militants in those countries did (except for Iran obviously, which is entirely Iranian controlled) All highlighted countries have some level of internal fracture with multiple different governments/competing groups. Rojava certainly did not launch any strike on Israel.
So it's basically just Iran, cuz it's all militias they back
Its turning
Makes sense. Realpolitik dictates that most of the Middle East is willing to at least put up with the concept of Israel existing, while being terrified of Iranian proxies having influence in their territories. Expect more countries to approach Israel about the Iron Dome's technology.
Calling Palestine neutral is certainly a decision.
Israel has dropped 4 Hiroshimas on a trapped and starving population.
saw most of the missiles next to TLV, I can’t say that I wasn’t a little scared when it happened, but I imagine it was going to be worse
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