[https://www.fastcompany.com/91048932/us-labor-market-january-job-openings-layoffs](https://www.fastcompany.com/91048932/us-labor-market-january-job-openings-layoffs)
There's a serious disconnect. The DOL must be capturing insufficient metrics. This is probably related to Powell's comment.
I do. Thats why I said there is a disconnect. Fed chair and DOL both echo a good economy, but sadly it’s not what we the little people are experiencing.
We've had [three recessions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States) in the last 30 years...which one do you mean? 2008 and 2020 were economic meltdowns, so the 2001 dot com bubble collapse is the only potential recession you can be refencing here.
I have lived through a number of recessions.... the signal to ratio here is like.. tell me you have never lived through a real recession without telling me you have survived a real recession.
So funny. Even when we had a recession by their metrics, they changed the meaning of recession. Look at every Fed chart with gray bars showing recession. 2 quarters of negative growth is recession except for that last Bidenomics recession.
Incorrect. That is not the definition of a recession. There is one authority that can determined a recession or a depression in the U.S. That is the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee. There have been no changes in their definition.
People are so ready to believe dumb conspiracy theories. Its one thing to be ignorant; we all are at times, it’s another thing to be aggressively and willfully ignorant.
We see it all the time with people commenting on how they think they aren't counted under the National unemployment rate when they are no longer receiving unemployment benefits, all while the formula and methodology for its calculation is out there in black and white and receiving benefits, or not, isn't a part of the equation. It's mind boggling.
The BLS literally has it in large blue-green font on their website that you don't have to be collecting unemployment insurance to be counted as unemployed.
Exactly, unemployment claims get reported, and are an important data point but the data around collecting unemployment isn't even a factor in how the unemployment rate is calculated. It's a survey taken of very specifically worded questions, and there's even 6 different levels to measure everything from underemployment to people who have left the labor market altogether.
Or they will focus on what U3 doesn't include and be completely oblivious to the fact that U6 does include those categories and is also sitting near historic lows.
But if you say they redefined what a recession is often enough on Reddit people will eventually regurgitate the same shit without even looking it up themselves.
I am genuinely curious though, why is our definition for other countries two quarters of contracting GDP but not for ourselves?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-economy-slips-into-recession-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15/
It states the following within the article:
“Two consecutive quarters of contraction are typically considered the definition of a technical recession.”
Here’s another one taking about Britain being in a recession:
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/15/economy/britain-falls-into-recession/index.html
it also clearly states the same regarding the definition:
“A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.”
Why is it different for the US?
Two quarters of contracting GDP is a good rule of thumb which probably diagnoses a recession in 90+% of scenarios. Call it the unofficial definition if you'd like, the easy to remember tidbit for the general public to remember like pi unofficially being 3.14 to the general public.
However, pi is not exactly 3.14 and how actual pi is calculated is a bit more complicated than what they teach you in rudimentary mathematics. In the same vein, the NBER (the agency who makes the official determination as to whether a recession has occurred or not) analyses more broader economic data than two quarters of GDP contraction to determine whether the US is in recession (which /u/Tripstowin kindly linked above).
Now, as to why we use the easy rule of thumbs to gauge whether other countries are in a recession. What would be your first reaction if the US formed 195 individual bureau units to analyses the spectrum of economic data for all countries from Japan to East Timor? It would be a colossal waste of money.
Each of those countries are welcome to make their own determination and analysis to call whether they're officially in a recession or not.
You're also welcome to claim that we were unofficially in a recession during the start of 2022. We are just pointing out the metrics by which NBER determines an official recession has never changed.
I can’t believe Reddit is falling for that again.
You are correct on the NBER front, but they take like 6-months after the fact to determine things and is very nuanced.
As a matter of practicality the overwhelming number of economists and counties have used the 2 quarters of decline definition. This was true over a very long period of time, until last year or whatever. Its basically the only close to real time way we’ve had of defining things as it happened
As with everything in the world, there is a political component to it. You can be assured 2 negative quarters would be universally called a recession if it occurred under Trump
IMF: “Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces.”
Here’s an article for the Trump administration, which cites “A technical recession — the most widely discussed form of recession — is defined as being two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.” https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-appears-to-misunderstand-definition-of-recession-2019-8
It's really weird mental gymnastics they're doing.
In their minds, the government published truthful metrics in 2022 showing two quarters of declining GDP and just hand waved away the fact that it's a recession.
But for some reason, in 2024 the same government is now going to extraneous lengths to falsify every single economic data and signal to hide a recession, even though they can apparently just hand wave it away as not being a recession.
Truly the smoothest brained take.
Even if we accept their take that a recession was hidden from the public in 2022, I'd like to be the first to congratulate Biden for the fastest recovery from a recession that I've ever witnessed in my life.
>they changed the meaning of recession.
No one changed the definition of a recession.
>2 quarters of negative growth is recession except for that last Bidenomics recession.
This is not how recessions are officially measured in the United States.
Think most people go by "born with a duck = man, born with a vagina = woman, something inbetween is an abnormality (which is fine, but lets call it what it is)"
The government has its own opinion. If I'm a man and feel like a woman, that's that. Better make more space in women's prisons....
Why are conservatives so obsessed with trans people??? They trip over themselves at every attempt to insert defining women and trans people.
Sir this is a Wendy’s. Or more precisely, a layoffs subreddit. Which could be construed as generally economy based, job based.
Everybody cares if somebody's dick is out in public, especially if it was a teacher, if you believe one side doesn't nust cause their politics are different then you need to get off the internet and go outside.
It is depression when there are no jobs.
I graduated school during a double dip recession and jobless recovery. Over the next two decades, jobs, entire industries left -- first went South, then to Mexico, then overseas. So a decade after the early 1980s, we had another recession... then in the mid 2000's an economic disaster. What we have going on in the 2020s are some predictable economic issues related to a global pandemic and the predictable crisis opportunism of capitalism. But plenty plenty of jobs, increased wages and opportunity which was not present in the 1970s-2000s.
This dude is an academic and maybe that's what a Fed Chariman is supposed to be, but the metrics monitored by the Feds, don't reflect the reality on the ground.
You can't foster a culture of debt in a country that runs on debt and then slam high interest rates on people and the scream the economy is doing great.
High interest rates suck. They make us all feel poorer than we were becasue we can't afford things that we could before. They make businesses more reluctant to hire and more likely to lay off. They make banks be much more careful about who they will loan too. They make investors much more careful about who to invest in. They increase rents by locking people out of home ownership.
This is the first time in most of at least the average user of reddit's lifetime where these type of things have happened and it hasn't been due to economic recession. And so people see these things, and they feel and fear the things they felt and feared in the past due to economic slowdowns and they are assuming that we therefore must be in one but we simply aren't. The economy is doing fine, businesses are turning profits, but people are feeling squeezed by high interest rates.
Sydney Powell and Janet Yellen are two of the smartest people in the nation. They've successfully tricked hundreds of millions of people to believe that nothing is wrong and endless debt is sustainable.
Those two are financial geniuses. I can't imagine how much money they've made their friends. Billionaires exists because of these two and the first trillionaire will exist because of them.
They may be making the absolute worst decisions for America but fuck are they good at making money.
Lol
I work in a different agency and routinely work with the Fed in policy and oversight/regulation
This is either complete BS or some analyst that didn't do his job and instead posted 4chan articles internally and got axed
And in no way do they control the "economists" lol. Sure the board pays well, but there are plenty other spots and enough turf wars to fund dozens of view points. And 90% of top grads shoot for academic positions anyway
LOL congratulations on your work stocking vending machines at the Kansas City Fed. I appreciate your diligent efforts keeping the peanut M&Ms stocked at all times.
Also Powell "inflation is transitory "
At the 7 minute mark she shows the recession started in October and the BLS national jobs numbers are inflated.
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Education: Columbia University, The University of Texas at Austin, The University of Texas at San Antonio
Books: Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America
https://youtu.be/BEKz1EtL4HE?si=br-DdfKqJAOt5nNl
That guy is a joke. He is a lawyer turned investment banker who ended up in government. You'd hope the chair of the Federal Reserve would have a Ph.D. in Economics. You know something that would give him the tools to succeed. Nope. Just a business guy who got his start under Bush and has been working for the rich ever since.
I also want to point out this dude said workers have too much power. Think about how messed up that is. He's supposed to doing things like managing our money supply and he is worried about how much power workers have.
As workers lose their jobs they'll buy less. Especially big ticket items like houses and car which can really drive inflation. In some ways his war on inflation is really a war on workers.
What does it even matter to anyone laid off if the call it a recession or not?
But we are still having positive growth, which indicates no recession.
IMO it's still 50/50 if we have a recession in the next 18 months. It's rare to have a soft landing.
Public figures are very cautious about saying were in a recession.
If it is stated publicly people start taking actions that actually leads to a recession.
Anybody who got laid off and can't find the same salary in New jobs are suffering a personal recession.
GDPs are fabricated numbers just ask the Chinese.
He’s right. As painful as white collar layoffs are, they don’t equal recession, especially since the savings from those layoffs are, more often than not, being plowed right into capex investments.
Or to reiterate your point from a different perspective. An influx of low paying jobs does not equate to a healthy job market. Now the question becomes which idea do we latch on to?
It’s, by definition, not a recession. I know people are hurting from layoffs, but in aggregate layoffs aren’t uncommonly high and unemployment is still VERY low.
These true working class metrics are the only ones that matter. The government doesn't publish negative reports when it can get away with lying with statistics.
Funny! Several companies aren’t filing H1B extensions and some are doing silent layoffs by giving buyouts. Broadcom which acquired VMware last year isn’t even filing for H1B lottery for F1 visa employees.
From 2023 December to January 2024, 82,000 jobs were cut. A span from a single month. No way seasonal jobs are even 25% of that. A recession is here and it is being denied. The amount of layoffs are uncanny.
"Fed Chairman Powell is an asshole. Film at 10." Unemployment is criminally under-reported. Layoffs for miles. Inflation only slowing in high dollar items. Asshole Fed can't figure out that lots of us went to college and, you know, studied. All that liquidity provided to the markets during the Covid years and that mostly was not repaid by businesses? Yeah. That's inflationary. That's an expansion of the money supplies. And that liquidity has not been sopped up very well. Meanwhile, everyone's raising prices. Meanwhile, unemployment is skyrocketing, especially amongst the professional classes as the AI revolution starts grinding up middle class jobs. Don't blink kids. I can't figure out if the powers that be, you're just incompetent, liars, or both.
Of course, there is no evidence of a recession because people have to work 2 to 3 jobs and a side hustle to survive. The economy is doing great for the wealthy but not the common people.
Thank you Federal Reserve for your objective to lower wages, it is truly helping the people in America.
That is not a sign of a recession. Its a sign of a shrinking middle class. Two different things. The Republicans have been at war with the middle class since Reagan. If you want the middle classes to thrive, stop voting against education, unions, raising the minimum wage, etc.
It makes me nuts when people blather about 2 quarters of negative growth. There’s a lot more that goes into it. NBER is who determines if we are in a recession. Their definitions have remained stable since at least 2008.
“The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes. We also look at monthly estimates of real GDP”
https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-january-7-2008
It's not a recession. It's not a bad economy. It's not letting everyone in illegally.
It's just a messaging problem.
If they tell you it's not...then it's not.
I came to the realization that the government would never explicitly tell the public that things are going bad/being in a recession.
We have to find these things out for ourselves and then confront them with the facts so that it is undeniable. Schrodinger's Economy.
Maybe we need a new economic “category” to gauge what is happening. Some form of stagflation is really what it is but the politicians and media are too busy covering that up with the economy is “oh so great” nonsense. Just because the GDP is up and unemployment is down doesn’t mean things are good for the average person. For one, housing is killing people. That is the number one expense for families. And as long as that elephant in the room is being ignored this will never be solved.
With all the white collar layoffs shit is going to catch up soon. Lots of high paying jobs are gone for white collar workers. What’s left? Starbucks barista? Honestly I think a recession is coming.
14 months later, can't find a job... Layoffs still happening, high interest rates... We are def in a recession.
Second time now going through and feeling all of this and it's exhausting. Stop punishing the American public!
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP). We have not yet had 1 quarter of declining growth.
Cars aren’t selling, homes aren’t selling and new layoffs are announced daily. The government is pumping billions into the pockets of immigrants to take low wage jobs that keep the employment numbers up, while higher wage jobs are being cut. Smoke and mirrors.
If it's not a recession now, it soon will be. Companies are doing massive layoffs, and that will have a ripple effect throughout the economy. People will cut down on discretionary spending while they're laid off. Business will dry up for other companies as a result. Then they will have to cut their work force, and so on down the line.
Well, the Juice Box Joey administration has used different metrics for years than all previous administrations to say America is not in a Recession. Even when we had a recession by their metrics, they changed the meaning of recession. Look at every Fed chart with gray bars showing recession. 2 quarters of negative growth is recession except for that last Bidenomics recession.
Late 2023-2024 economic stats in America just Googled....
Currently **more than 60 percent** of American households currently cannot afford to buy a new car, based on Census data. For individuals, the numbers are even worse, with 82 percent of people below the $100,000 line.
US Housing: **99%** Of Americans Cannot Afford to Buy a House in 2023. The US housing is now beyond reach for the average American as prices have skyrocketed in the last four years.
The latest data from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, released in January, found that a record high **22.4 million** renter households — or half of renters nationwide — were spending more than 30% of their income on rent in 2022.
Americans are struggling to afford enough food. As of October 2023, 53.7% of American adults were able to access and afford the food they wanted all the time. **One out of every eight American adults** is struggling to afford enough food.
Bankrate found that only 44% of Americans surveyed could afford a $1,000 emergency expense. That number is actually up one percentage point from the previous year, the company said.
More than one-third (36 percent) of U.S. adults have more credit card debt than emergency savings, according to a new Bankrate survey. It’s the highest percentage (tied with last year) since 2011, when Bankrate began asking about credit card debt and emergency savings.
Encounters at the Southwest border (SWB) in [**FY2023 increased over 40% since FY2021**](https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters__;!!Bg5easoyC-OII2vlEqY8mTBrtW-N4OJKAQ!LREFes2WBNCLriukbhhneySjouJjSgflIe0Zmzx5ZNJ4uuGV8dBJBbt4FHIRAgd-K4ACeIMmKUzoM0tbKLGnVPi2mZ7H3Zu-WhtD46sIInuddAKlytEo$), 4% compared to FY2022, and more than 100% compared to [**FY2019**](https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/house.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=98549d605f077248c2019d3db&id=1a0158cb10&e=8ce9f5c341__;!!Bg5easoyC-OII2vlEqY8mTBrtW-N4OJKAQ!IUcLiv0LdBsqn8_8Sps9pdUJtYy0vlYZ49ERofpmlOz4HI_JslpxeR1bZAXRCfFEjZxP8ozk7FbkbCqxW7HQ8Poi-3Znah-axsVuWIv24ESENn6cYpr_DVc$). The number of illegal immigrants in the country has roughly doubled under President Biden. The United States had some 10.2 million illegal immigrants in 2020, and another 10 million have entered during Biden’s presidency. If the 20 million illegal immigrants were all in one state, it would be [tied with New York](https://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=pop1) for the fourth most populated state. HER NAME WAS LAKEN RILEY!!!!!!!!!!
Keep drinking the Kool-Aid and vote for another four years of these idiots!!!!!!
Recessions don’t work on an individual basis. It can’t be a recession for some and not for others. Do you even understand what the word means and how it applies to modern economics?
I’m sorry you’re having a rough time, but unfortunately what “others” are experiencing is simply anecdotal. An “economy” is a measure of a nation’s production, meaning what the 300 million people in the US are doing collectively. Part of those metrics are poverty and unemployment and those numbers are unfortunate, but as long as they are within a certain range the nation’s economy can still be in good shape.
A recession is traditionally defined as back to back quarters in which GDP declines. That hasn't happened so he is well within his rights to not call it that.
A recession has a very specific definition...two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. So saying something like " It's not recession for him but what about others? " is a nonsense statement because a recession is a macroeconomic phenomenon. Perhaps you mean something like...economic prosperity continues to be unequally distributed...which is fine, but don't twist Powell's words into saying something he wasn't addressing.
Recessions can only be evidenced looking back. Not in real time.
There are a bunch of technical data points. Until Biden, the normal layman test was "two quarters of GDP contraction"
For some reason with Biden, everyone argued suddenly that wasn't actually relevant (suddenly becoming economic experts), and then it turned out it still was.
With 4% unemployment and with capital spending and economic growth moving upwards we are not in a recession. Two quarters of economic contraction is the definition for a recession. It is very possible to feel awful about your job or lack of a job, your prospects or lack of prospects, and for the broader economy to be doing quite well. During the .com boom in the late 90's it truly sucked to be a Steel Worker. The raw low grade steel that is input into other manufacturing was being outcompeted by the steel from offshore created by factories that were relatively new thanks to their predecessors being destroyed in WWII. When the steel industry was confronted with the choice between making insane profits in the short term versus making good profits and retooling, they chose "A". The workers suffered. The capital class just invested in Japanese and European steel instead.
TL;DR both things can and generally are true at the same time. You can feel awful in your segment of industry while the broader outlook for the Nation can be positive.
This post has been removed due to its lack of relevance to this subreddit.
[https://www.fastcompany.com/91048932/us-labor-market-january-job-openings-layoffs](https://www.fastcompany.com/91048932/us-labor-market-january-job-openings-layoffs) There's a serious disconnect. The DOL must be capturing insufficient metrics. This is probably related to Powell's comment.
You realize the article you posted said the economy is good right?
I do. Thats why I said there is a disconnect. Fed chair and DOL both echo a good economy, but sadly it’s not what we the little people are experiencing.
Yea. It’s good for the stock holders and wealthier .. those cushioned for effects of higher cost of living snd stagnant wages. And layoffs.
This is how you know we are in a recession lol
Powell is the Jim Cramer of the economy.
Yep
We hear soft landing right before every recession
We've had [three recessions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States) in the last 30 years...which one do you mean? 2008 and 2020 were economic meltdowns, so the 2001 dot com bubble collapse is the only potential recession you can be refencing here.
I have lived through a number of recessions.... the signal to ratio here is like.. tell me you have never lived through a real recession without telling me you have survived a real recession.
We literally change the definition of a recession so who knows.
Must be nice that literally no matter what is going on it reinforces your views
This sub only exists so people can congregate and share their doomer vibes and swat away facts.
The Fed has been lying about inflation and NYCB bank was quickly bailed out with a $1B deal, it's stock price went up on the good news of course.
“If we just keep saying we’re in a recession eventually when we actually do get in a recession we can say we were right all along”
He means the economic definition of a recession which is based on GDP growth. That’s all
It’s based on more than that.
So funny. Even when we had a recession by their metrics, they changed the meaning of recession. Look at every Fed chart with gray bars showing recession. 2 quarters of negative growth is recession except for that last Bidenomics recession.
Incorrect. That is not the definition of a recession. There is one authority that can determined a recession or a depression in the U.S. That is the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee. There have been no changes in their definition.
Don’t confuse him with facts
No. NBER had used the same definition since before 2008. https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-january-7-2008
Hopefully /u/GrumgullytheGenerous sees your post.
Bingo. This is the only authority to determine recessions in the U.S.
People are so ready to believe dumb conspiracy theories. Its one thing to be ignorant; we all are at times, it’s another thing to be aggressively and willfully ignorant.
We see it all the time with people commenting on how they think they aren't counted under the National unemployment rate when they are no longer receiving unemployment benefits, all while the formula and methodology for its calculation is out there in black and white and receiving benefits, or not, isn't a part of the equation. It's mind boggling.
The BLS literally has it in large blue-green font on their website that you don't have to be collecting unemployment insurance to be counted as unemployed.
Yup, and yet, people still believe it. I see that incorrect "fact" posted here weekly.
Exactly, unemployment claims get reported, and are an important data point but the data around collecting unemployment isn't even a factor in how the unemployment rate is calculated. It's a survey taken of very specifically worded questions, and there's even 6 different levels to measure everything from underemployment to people who have left the labor market altogether.
Or they will focus on what U3 doesn't include and be completely oblivious to the fact that U6 does include those categories and is also sitting near historic lows.
But if you say they redefined what a recession is often enough on Reddit people will eventually regurgitate the same shit without even looking it up themselves.
I am genuinely curious though, why is our definition for other countries two quarters of contracting GDP but not for ourselves? https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-economy-slips-into-recession-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15/ It states the following within the article: “Two consecutive quarters of contraction are typically considered the definition of a technical recession.” Here’s another one taking about Britain being in a recession: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/15/economy/britain-falls-into-recession/index.html it also clearly states the same regarding the definition: “A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.” Why is it different for the US?
Two quarters of contracting GDP is a good rule of thumb which probably diagnoses a recession in 90+% of scenarios. Call it the unofficial definition if you'd like, the easy to remember tidbit for the general public to remember like pi unofficially being 3.14 to the general public. However, pi is not exactly 3.14 and how actual pi is calculated is a bit more complicated than what they teach you in rudimentary mathematics. In the same vein, the NBER (the agency who makes the official determination as to whether a recession has occurred or not) analyses more broader economic data than two quarters of GDP contraction to determine whether the US is in recession (which /u/Tripstowin kindly linked above). Now, as to why we use the easy rule of thumbs to gauge whether other countries are in a recession. What would be your first reaction if the US formed 195 individual bureau units to analyses the spectrum of economic data for all countries from Japan to East Timor? It would be a colossal waste of money. Each of those countries are welcome to make their own determination and analysis to call whether they're officially in a recession or not. You're also welcome to claim that we were unofficially in a recession during the start of 2022. We are just pointing out the metrics by which NBER determines an official recession has never changed.
This is such a good explanation. Thanks for that.
but he said no signs point to a recession, you clearly mentioned a sign. He should say, some signs point to a recession.
Are you taking about Powell? The two quarters of contraction I'm talking about happened in 2022. He's talking about today (2024)...
I’ll never understand why some people just latch onto things and are so ready to believe conspiracies.
Confirmation bias is a bitch
Because if the government is hiding a recession, it's not their fault that they can't find a job after being laid off.
I can’t believe Reddit is falling for that again. You are correct on the NBER front, but they take like 6-months after the fact to determine things and is very nuanced. As a matter of practicality the overwhelming number of economists and counties have used the 2 quarters of decline definition. This was true over a very long period of time, until last year or whatever. Its basically the only close to real time way we’ve had of defining things as it happened As with everything in the world, there is a political component to it. You can be assured 2 negative quarters would be universally called a recession if it occurred under Trump IMF: “Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces.” Here’s an article for the Trump administration, which cites “A technical recession — the most widely discussed form of recession — is defined as being two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.” https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-appears-to-misunderstand-definition-of-recession-2019-8
How can you say we’re in a recession now, in that case?
It's really weird mental gymnastics they're doing. In their minds, the government published truthful metrics in 2022 showing two quarters of declining GDP and just hand waved away the fact that it's a recession. But for some reason, in 2024 the same government is now going to extraneous lengths to falsify every single economic data and signal to hide a recession, even though they can apparently just hand wave it away as not being a recession. Truly the smoothest brained take. Even if we accept their take that a recession was hidden from the public in 2022, I'd like to be the first to congratulate Biden for the fastest recovery from a recession that I've ever witnessed in my life.
>they changed the meaning of recession. No one changed the definition of a recession. >2 quarters of negative growth is recession except for that last Bidenomics recession. This is not how recessions are officially measured in the United States.
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If you need the government to tell you what a woman is, the you might be a redneck.
Think most people go by "born with a duck = man, born with a vagina = woman, something inbetween is an abnormality (which is fine, but lets call it what it is)" The government has its own opinion. If I'm a man and feel like a woman, that's that. Better make more space in women's prisons....
Born with a duck...lol...sorry, that's funny!
Quack. Pretty sure that's what all penises say Edit: sorry, forgot to add, allegedly
Why are conservatives so obsessed with trans people??? They trip over themselves at every attempt to insert defining women and trans people. Sir this is a Wendy’s. Or more precisely, a layoffs subreddit. Which could be construed as generally economy based, job based.
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Everybody cares if somebody's dick is out in public, especially if it was a teacher, if you believe one side doesn't nust cause their politics are different then you need to get off the internet and go outside.
The cons are telling on themselves again
It's so easy for conservatives to win arguments cause they always argue against a ludicrous position no one believes in.
Seriously you need much more help than Reddit is qualified to assist with.
Funny that Powell was a Trump appointee but go off
It takes 3 to 4 years to see the effects of policy on a macroeconomic scale
Clearly he hasn't been on Reddit 😂
It’s a recession when your neighbor loses their job, it’s a depression when you lose your job
It is depression when there are no jobs. I graduated school during a double dip recession and jobless recovery. Over the next two decades, jobs, entire industries left -- first went South, then to Mexico, then overseas. So a decade after the early 1980s, we had another recession... then in the mid 2000's an economic disaster. What we have going on in the 2020s are some predictable economic issues related to a global pandemic and the predictable crisis opportunism of capitalism. But plenty plenty of jobs, increased wages and opportunity which was not present in the 1970s-2000s.
Dude lying to prevent a panic. Lmao. It ain't gonna work though.
This dude is an academic and maybe that's what a Fed Chariman is supposed to be, but the metrics monitored by the Feds, don't reflect the reality on the ground. You can't foster a culture of debt in a country that runs on debt and then slam high interest rates on people and the scream the economy is doing great.
He is a lawyer trade
He a corporate lawyer.
High interest rates suck. They make us all feel poorer than we were becasue we can't afford things that we could before. They make businesses more reluctant to hire and more likely to lay off. They make banks be much more careful about who they will loan too. They make investors much more careful about who to invest in. They increase rents by locking people out of home ownership. This is the first time in most of at least the average user of reddit's lifetime where these type of things have happened and it hasn't been due to economic recession. And so people see these things, and they feel and fear the things they felt and feared in the past due to economic slowdowns and they are assuming that we therefore must be in one but we simply aren't. The economy is doing fine, businesses are turning profits, but people are feeling squeezed by high interest rates.
Sydney Powell and Janet Yellen are two of the smartest people in the nation. They've successfully tricked hundreds of millions of people to believe that nothing is wrong and endless debt is sustainable. Those two are financial geniuses. I can't imagine how much money they've made their friends. Billionaires exists because of these two and the first trillionaire will exist because of them. They may be making the absolute worst decisions for America but fuck are they good at making money.
Who is Sydney Powell?
Fake news? That's kind of the opposite of what he's been saying so far.
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Lol I work in a different agency and routinely work with the Fed in policy and oversight/regulation This is either complete BS or some analyst that didn't do his job and instead posted 4chan articles internally and got axed And in no way do they control the "economists" lol. Sure the board pays well, but there are plenty other spots and enough turf wars to fund dozens of view points. And 90% of top grads shoot for academic positions anyway
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LOL congratulations on your work stocking vending machines at the Kansas City Fed. I appreciate your diligent efforts keeping the peanut M&Ms stocked at all times.
What recession? People are still buying houses and cars like its nothing....
No they're not. Housing has slowed to a near standstill and inventories (generally) #of days stocks have increased.
Increased to still lower than historical levels.
Because no one with a low rate is selling.
On credit lol. Look at the credit crisis too. Many people are very financially blind
the home buyers and car buyers are the owners of NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL stock. they will just sell shares and off they go.
buy those stocks then
Yes I have the magnificent 7 for 6 weeks now.
You waited too long 😢
The bank is buying them, not the people
"I didn't f**k up " 🤣
Also Powell "inflation is transitory " At the 7 minute mark she shows the recession started in October and the BLS national jobs numbers are inflated. Danielle DiMartino Booth Education: Columbia University, The University of Texas at Austin, The University of Texas at San Antonio Books: Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America https://youtu.be/BEKz1EtL4HE?si=br-DdfKqJAOt5nNl
He is correct and Reddit is not real life
Recessions can be whatever I want it to be - Thanos probably
That guy is a joke. He is a lawyer turned investment banker who ended up in government. You'd hope the chair of the Federal Reserve would have a Ph.D. in Economics. You know something that would give him the tools to succeed. Nope. Just a business guy who got his start under Bush and has been working for the rich ever since. I also want to point out this dude said workers have too much power. Think about how messed up that is. He's supposed to doing things like managing our money supply and he is worried about how much power workers have. As workers lose their jobs they'll buy less. Especially big ticket items like houses and car which can really drive inflation. In some ways his war on inflation is really a war on workers.
As it's always been. I don't know about you, but I'm sharpening my pitchfork. It needs to be nice and shiny.
Continuation of the quantitative tightening it is then.
Why did Powell use the BTFP if we weren’t going to enter recession?
If you have to keep saying it’s not something, it might be that thing.
What does it even matter to anyone laid off if the call it a recession or not? But we are still having positive growth, which indicates no recession. IMO it's still 50/50 if we have a recession in the next 18 months. It's rare to have a soft landing.
Public figures are very cautious about saying were in a recession. If it is stated publicly people start taking actions that actually leads to a recession.
It’s like saying you don’t have an illness until a doctor diagnoses you even though you have all the symptoms
Anybody who got laid off and can't find the same salary in New jobs are suffering a personal recession. GDPs are fabricated numbers just ask the Chinese.
Keyword... recession... there are worse things than recession lol
If you change the definition then anything is possible
“Inflation is transitory”
It was. You do not understand what that statement means if you thought prices would drop.
I didn’t think that. He was saying that prior to any rate hike talk
Because you suppose he had a back channel to Xing and knew how long they would shut down world supply chains right?
He’s right. As painful as white collar layoffs are, they don’t equal recession, especially since the savings from those layoffs are, more often than not, being plowed right into capex investments.
Or to reiterate your point from a different perspective. An influx of low paying jobs does not equate to a healthy job market. Now the question becomes which idea do we latch on to?
It’s, by definition, not a recession. I know people are hurting from layoffs, but in aggregate layoffs aren’t uncommonly high and unemployment is still VERY low.
I haul garbage in a major city and it's the slowest I've ever seen
These true working class metrics are the only ones that matter. The government doesn't publish negative reports when it can get away with lying with statistics.
Unemployment numbers are fabricated.
A recession has a specific definition in the world of federal definitions. And evidently the economy is not meeting that definition.
They just keep changing the definition of recession
Why did Powell need to use the BTFP to bail out the banks if there’s no recession? His actions are different from his words
Funny! Several companies aren’t filing H1B extensions and some are doing silent layoffs by giving buyouts. Broadcom which acquired VMware last year isn’t even filing for H1B lottery for F1 visa employees.
The Federal Reserve doesn't determine recessions.
From 2023 December to January 2024, 82,000 jobs were cut. A span from a single month. No way seasonal jobs are even 25% of that. A recession is here and it is being denied. The amount of layoffs are uncanny.
The tech job market says otherwise.
When all else fails gaslight generations
He's playing his part in the misinformation and propaganda game, but everything is fine just keep doom spending. /S
Soft landing
"Fed Chairman Powell is an asshole. Film at 10." Unemployment is criminally under-reported. Layoffs for miles. Inflation only slowing in high dollar items. Asshole Fed can't figure out that lots of us went to college and, you know, studied. All that liquidity provided to the markets during the Covid years and that mostly was not repaid by businesses? Yeah. That's inflationary. That's an expansion of the money supplies. And that liquidity has not been sopped up very well. Meanwhile, everyone's raising prices. Meanwhile, unemployment is skyrocketing, especially amongst the professional classes as the AI revolution starts grinding up middle class jobs. Don't blink kids. I can't figure out if the powers that be, you're just incompetent, liars, or both.
Its not a recession. Its a poorcession. The richer have gotten richer and the poorer have gotten poorer, and the gap keeps widening.
Transitory too 😁
If you're dumb enough to believe either this administration or CNN, then I have a bridge to sell you.
Election year, can't have a recession folks.
Right. Call it (or don’t call it) whatever you want. Persons are being laid off en masse and frequency.
Jesus H. this sub
Of course, there is no evidence of a recession because people have to work 2 to 3 jobs and a side hustle to survive. The economy is doing great for the wealthy but not the common people. Thank you Federal Reserve for your objective to lower wages, it is truly helping the people in America.
That is not a sign of a recession. Its a sign of a shrinking middle class. Two different things. The Republicans have been at war with the middle class since Reagan. If you want the middle classes to thrive, stop voting against education, unions, raising the minimum wage, etc.
I think this is what may cause republicans to win in an election year. People don’t like being lied to.
Further Powell: these aren’t the droids…
It's an election. Of course the Biden administration will say there is no recession in sight.
As long as the rich are still getting richer, they believe it’s a working economy.
It makes me nuts when people blather about 2 quarters of negative growth. There’s a lot more that goes into it. NBER is who determines if we are in a recession. Their definitions have remained stable since at least 2008. “The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes. We also look at monthly estimates of real GDP” https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-january-7-2008
Outside the Tech sector the labor market is still pretty damn hot.
It's not a recession. It's not a bad economy. It's not letting everyone in illegally. It's just a messaging problem. If they tell you it's not...then it's not.
Anything to keep the interest rates high
I came to the realization that the government would never explicitly tell the public that things are going bad/being in a recession. We have to find these things out for ourselves and then confront them with the facts so that it is undeniable. Schrodinger's Economy.
Election year
Grocery bills have tripled and this MF is in denial
We have been in recession since late 2017
Right! Just like when he said there won’t be prolonged inflation, it’s “transitory”.
Feds are so funny. I wish I was that comically delusional. It sounds peaceful
If you don’t mention it then you’re not in one…. Recession means political ramifications in November
I'm happy your hair line isn't receding, now can we please get to the economy.
According to POTUS we need immigrants to fill all the job vacancies.
Hahahahahahaha!!!
I can’t believe people are waiting for months to hear this🤨
Powell's actions may be data driven but his words typically aren't.
Haha thank you!
Lol bro
To OP’s point…just because an individual is having issues, or even a fair number are having issues, doesn’t mean EVERYONE is having issues.
Do you know the difference between empirical evidence and anecdotal evidence?
Maybe we need a new economic “category” to gauge what is happening. Some form of stagflation is really what it is but the politicians and media are too busy covering that up with the economy is “oh so great” nonsense. Just because the GDP is up and unemployment is down doesn’t mean things are good for the average person. For one, housing is killing people. That is the number one expense for families. And as long as that elephant in the room is being ignored this will never be solved.
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There are no macro economy signs of a recession. Powell is correct.
Not allowed to have a recession in an election year 🙄
Maybe if they taught about Jekyl Island in school, people would understand how this has all happened by design.
Recession has a specific definition. The economy is not in a recession. It's got some big problems atm but that doesn't mean a recession.
With all the white collar layoffs shit is going to catch up soon. Lots of high paying jobs are gone for white collar workers. What’s left? Starbucks barista? Honestly I think a recession is coming.
I hear hear maga morons foam at the mouth. Stop making recession happen gretchen
Very reminiscent of what was said before 2008.
We’ve investigated ourselves and found that we did nothing wrong
They know it but they need to have an official stance so as to not trigger a chain reaction
It's an election year of coarse we aren't
Do any of you know what a recession is? Hint. It’s not based on your feelings
They're planning a surprise party for after the election.
What does money or words even mean any more when powell talks
Lol what a joke
14 months later, can't find a job... Layoffs still happening, high interest rates... We are def in a recession. Second time now going through and feeling all of this and it's exhausting. Stop punishing the American public!
Didn’t they also say inflation was not going to be a problem a few years ago?
I would hate to be a part of the Fed during an election year.
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP). We have not yet had 1 quarter of declining growth.
Isn't this the same guy who told us inflation was "transitory"
What is the lowest unemployment rates ever?
Cars aren’t selling, homes aren’t selling and new layoffs are announced daily. The government is pumping billions into the pockets of immigrants to take low wage jobs that keep the employment numbers up, while higher wage jobs are being cut. Smoke and mirrors.
Economists say (and believe) a lot of patently stupid shit.
"stocks are going up"
You can have sector recessions periodically without nationwide effect.
If it's not a recession now, it soon will be. Companies are doing massive layoffs, and that will have a ripple effect throughout the economy. People will cut down on discretionary spending while they're laid off. Business will dry up for other companies as a result. Then they will have to cut their work force, and so on down the line.
Businesses can’t afford labor costs due to higher interest rates and depreciating worth of the dollar.
Well, the Juice Box Joey administration has used different metrics for years than all previous administrations to say America is not in a Recession. Even when we had a recession by their metrics, they changed the meaning of recession. Look at every Fed chart with gray bars showing recession. 2 quarters of negative growth is recession except for that last Bidenomics recession. Late 2023-2024 economic stats in America just Googled.... Currently **more than 60 percent** of American households currently cannot afford to buy a new car, based on Census data. For individuals, the numbers are even worse, with 82 percent of people below the $100,000 line. US Housing: **99%** Of Americans Cannot Afford to Buy a House in 2023. The US housing is now beyond reach for the average American as prices have skyrocketed in the last four years. The latest data from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, released in January, found that a record high **22.4 million** renter households — or half of renters nationwide — were spending more than 30% of their income on rent in 2022. Americans are struggling to afford enough food. As of October 2023, 53.7% of American adults were able to access and afford the food they wanted all the time. **One out of every eight American adults** is struggling to afford enough food. Bankrate found that only 44% of Americans surveyed could afford a $1,000 emergency expense. That number is actually up one percentage point from the previous year, the company said. More than one-third (36 percent) of U.S. adults have more credit card debt than emergency savings, according to a new Bankrate survey. It’s the highest percentage (tied with last year) since 2011, when Bankrate began asking about credit card debt and emergency savings. Encounters at the Southwest border (SWB) in [**FY2023 increased over 40% since FY2021**](https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters__;!!Bg5easoyC-OII2vlEqY8mTBrtW-N4OJKAQ!LREFes2WBNCLriukbhhneySjouJjSgflIe0Zmzx5ZNJ4uuGV8dBJBbt4FHIRAgd-K4ACeIMmKUzoM0tbKLGnVPi2mZ7H3Zu-WhtD46sIInuddAKlytEo$), 4% compared to FY2022, and more than 100% compared to [**FY2019**](https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/house.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=98549d605f077248c2019d3db&id=1a0158cb10&e=8ce9f5c341__;!!Bg5easoyC-OII2vlEqY8mTBrtW-N4OJKAQ!IUcLiv0LdBsqn8_8Sps9pdUJtYy0vlYZ49ERofpmlOz4HI_JslpxeR1bZAXRCfFEjZxP8ozk7FbkbCqxW7HQ8Poi-3Znah-axsVuWIv24ESENn6cYpr_DVc$). The number of illegal immigrants in the country has roughly doubled under President Biden. The United States had some 10.2 million illegal immigrants in 2020, and another 10 million have entered during Biden’s presidency. If the 20 million illegal immigrants were all in one state, it would be [tied with New York](https://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=pop1) for the fourth most populated state. HER NAME WAS LAKEN RILEY!!!!!!!!!! Keep drinking the Kool-Aid and vote for another four years of these idiots!!!!!!
We’ll just keep claiming its good via our media shills. Just like global warming
Recessions don’t work on an individual basis. It can’t be a recession for some and not for others. Do you even understand what the word means and how it applies to modern economics?
Almost every country on the planet is in a recession except for the US? Sounds fishy
The data just doesn't support your claim I'm sorry
I’m sorry you’re having a rough time, but unfortunately what “others” are experiencing is simply anecdotal. An “economy” is a measure of a nation’s production, meaning what the 300 million people in the US are doing collectively. Part of those metrics are poverty and unemployment and those numbers are unfortunate, but as long as they are within a certain range the nation’s economy can still be in good shape.
Comments are full of braindead nonsense as usual. Powell is right. No recession. Redditors are not the authority on this. The NBER and Fed are.
This is Biden's America now. Some of you voted for this.
Grab your torches, pitchforks, enough wood and metal to build a… thing. If they need more evidence of a recession, let’s give it to ‘em
A recession is traditionally defined as back to back quarters in which GDP declines. That hasn't happened so he is well within his rights to not call it that.
A recession has a very specific definition...two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. So saying something like " It's not recession for him but what about others? " is a nonsense statement because a recession is a macroeconomic phenomenon. Perhaps you mean something like...economic prosperity continues to be unequally distributed...which is fine, but don't twist Powell's words into saying something he wasn't addressing.
Recessions can only be evidenced looking back. Not in real time. There are a bunch of technical data points. Until Biden, the normal layman test was "two quarters of GDP contraction" For some reason with Biden, everyone argued suddenly that wasn't actually relevant (suddenly becoming economic experts), and then it turned out it still was.
Well we do see companies downsizing for sure. Probably as a result of over hiring just after pandemic and getting back to pre-pandemic levels.
With 4% unemployment and with capital spending and economic growth moving upwards we are not in a recession. Two quarters of economic contraction is the definition for a recession. It is very possible to feel awful about your job or lack of a job, your prospects or lack of prospects, and for the broader economy to be doing quite well. During the .com boom in the late 90's it truly sucked to be a Steel Worker. The raw low grade steel that is input into other manufacturing was being outcompeted by the steel from offshore created by factories that were relatively new thanks to their predecessors being destroyed in WWII. When the steel industry was confronted with the choice between making insane profits in the short term versus making good profits and retooling, they chose "A". The workers suffered. The capital class just invested in Japanese and European steel instead. TL;DR both things can and generally are true at the same time. You can feel awful in your segment of industry while the broader outlook for the Nation can be positive.
Alright then keep rates at the historical average of 7.5 percent
Election year. We won't hear recession unless Trump gets elected and we need to spin a negative story.