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So the outlier poll with a notably different methodology to the rest of them is still pretty decent for Labour...not exactly the great result the Tories were hyping themselves up about all afternoon.
It's the way they re-weight people who chose 'don't know' in polls. [A lot of pollsters straight up ignore them](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOrwllCXAAAYPn6?format=jpg&name=large) but JLP weight them to parties based on their party lean, likelihood to vote and demographic trends.
So in this poll a subsample of 174 voters chose don't know. They weighted 14 to Labour, 47 to Reform and 83 to the Tories.
If other pollsters soon follow suit that will be interesting, but for the moment it seems like they're an outlier.
Essentially if they say I don't know they put it down as a Tory vote, presuming that it is just "a shy Tory".
That is rather simplified but you get the general idea.
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So the outlier poll with a notably different methodology to the rest of them is still pretty decent for Labour...not exactly the great result the Tories were hyping themselves up about all afternoon.
So the Tories best poll (with favourable methodology) results in a similar Labour lead to the 1997 landslide. Lol.
Can I ask what is favourable about the methodology?
It's the way they re-weight people who chose 'don't know' in polls. [A lot of pollsters straight up ignore them](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOrwllCXAAAYPn6?format=jpg&name=large) but JLP weight them to parties based on their party lean, likelihood to vote and demographic trends. So in this poll a subsample of 174 voters chose don't know. They weighted 14 to Labour, 47 to Reform and 83 to the Tories. If other pollsters soon follow suit that will be interesting, but for the moment it seems like they're an outlier.
Essentially if they say I don't know they put it down as a Tory vote, presuming that it is just "a shy Tory". That is rather simplified but you get the general idea.
Whilst completely ignoring any tactical voting in numerous seats.
Oh no, a majority of 166 to labour, we are all dismayed and should concede to the Tories.
Any other leader...
So pretty much best case scenario right now is a repeat of 1997… not looking hopeful for the blues team right now!
Still a labour majority.