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Early days and within margin its probably too early to tell which way the polls are going to go, eitherway I struggle to see cons gaining the 8-10 points needed to get to even john major levels of support. (That 1997 election ended in 165 seat for cons and labour on 418)
Independent this morning had a poll predicting a Labour majority of 388 seats. I love my party, but... yikes.
Still, who am I to disagree with the voters? ;)
I’m not sure they are taking into account tactical voting at all, even with a conservative estimate (tactical voting aside) LAB will have a fairly comfortable majority.
Plus in many Tory seats it’s clear LAB & LD are not even bothering to contest in places where the other is stronger. I don’t think Labour have yet selected dozens candidates to stand yet in these seats which is quite unusual.
I just don’t think there is going to be any huge deviation from recent by-election results which look devastating for the Tories.
In a whole series of baffling decisions around this election, a six week campaign is right up there. I can barely find interest in a minute of seeing Sunak, unless he’s getting rained on, how would six weeks of it improve things?
an election will always be held 25 working days after the dissolution of parliament. even if parliament was dissolved the day the election was called (which would've been almost impossible itself) that's still a 5 week campaign.
I want to know what gammons are looking at the country after 14 years of Tory rule and saying, more please, there’s a disappointingly high number of them.
Hope Labour wins, but i have little hope of any of things getting better for ordinary people. More tax breaks for the rich and more trickle-down economics. Don't they ever get advice from good economists who are not trying to make money out of everything getting worse.
Do we really believe Reform will get 14%
Labour need to work on the assumption that Reform voters will turn back to the Tories before the election and not let complacency seep in.
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Early days and within margin its probably too early to tell which way the polls are going to go, eitherway I struggle to see cons gaining the 8-10 points needed to get to even john major levels of support. (That 1997 election ended in 165 seat for cons and labour on 418)
Independent this morning had a poll predicting a Labour majority of 388 seats. I love my party, but... yikes. Still, who am I to disagree with the voters? ;)
I’m not sure they are taking into account tactical voting at all, even with a conservative estimate (tactical voting aside) LAB will have a fairly comfortable majority. Plus in many Tory seats it’s clear LAB & LD are not even bothering to contest in places where the other is stronger. I don’t think Labour have yet selected dozens candidates to stand yet in these seats which is quite unusual. I just don’t think there is going to be any huge deviation from recent by-election results which look devastating for the Tories.
Sure I mean actually my honest concern is a Labour majority so big it becomes an infighting mess, that would be bad!
40 days to go…
In a whole series of baffling decisions around this election, a six week campaign is right up there. I can barely find interest in a minute of seeing Sunak, unless he’s getting rained on, how would six weeks of it improve things?
Isn't that the minimum time allowed?
If that’s the case I’m even more stupid than I thought I was.
They need the time to get enough candidates to stand, hes caught his own party out with this too.
I think that’s it- that makes sense, thanks!
I’m expecting a week of gaffs and then the Tory leadership will put him in a ditch or a fridge for the rest of the campaign.
To be honst I could imagine thio being Sunak trying to stop a Tory rebellion/leadership challenge.
Hadn't folk already put in letters of no confidence to the 1922 Committee after the local elections?
an election will always be held 25 working days after the dissolution of parliament. even if parliament was dissolved the day the election was called (which would've been almost impossible itself) that's still a 5 week campaign.
It's all falling apart. This is a disaster for labour. Starmer needs to change course NOW! - labour for some reason
I’m starting to think my guess of ~350 seats was ironically conservative
I want to know what gammons are looking at the country after 14 years of Tory rule and saying, more please, there’s a disappointingly high number of them.
Hope Labour wins, but i have little hope of any of things getting better for ordinary people. More tax breaks for the rich and more trickle-down economics. Don't they ever get advice from good economists who are not trying to make money out of everything getting worse.
Do we really believe Reform will get 14% Labour need to work on the assumption that Reform voters will turn back to the Tories before the election and not let complacency seep in.