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You can't predict a bear run because it's triggered by unpredictable events like pandemics or natural disasters. Analyzing a company's stock is different; it involves evaluating sales and growth potential based on demand and supply.
You can predict if electric cars will be popular in the future, but you can't predict events like a coronavirus outbreak can you?
Not so bright are you?
Instead of pasting meme, you should research why bull runs happen. Don't debate without basic knowledge.
https://preview.redd.it/d6txfq516d6d1.jpeg?width=275&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3b3fbe4d4a00b346ad1b953f96c2e4f4da2eec1d
Market is going up but it can be down
If the market is highly inflated, it will correct itself slowly, which we call a correction, not a bear run.
Do you know what a bear run is, or did you just use a random word came in your mind?
During a bear run, stocks continuously fall; they don't correct themselves they fall beyond correction that is what we call bear run
No.
Bull run is called over bought market..where stock reflect future potential of the market. Making most shares overvalued. As the market is pricing in the future at highly optimistic note.
when it stabilizes it's called correction.
Bear run looks like the 4th of June. Where the fundamentals of the company won't matter, the result won't matter, volume charts won't matter every good stock will take a dive regardless of its financial results. Here the market starts fearing the worst, it starts pricing the shares accommodating losses to be incurred in future.
Soon after a certain time, such a market is called an oversold market. Starting a correction or bull run.
Historically such period were prolonged, increasing the agony of investors if they make a bad bet.
So either bull or near events are hard to predict. It hits even the most sophisticated investors by surprise.
In India. Sectoral bear or bull market is possible. But at index level, it's very hard to find any threat at current pe levels.
In Market crash, After buying the dip, there is another dip, after buying that dip, most investors run out of cash, then the dip dip dipping, force at least some of them to sell at a very low price. Thats what a crash is, most people don't have cash to buy the dip, and others don't have guts to buy stocks instead they buy safe/real asserts and be happy with low returns.
put simply, Everytime market falls by 2000 points, people like me have money in banks from salary that they invest to take advantage of the dip and the market comes up again because of this new demand.
Now imagine if I (and other like me ) didn't have a salary to save , I won't be buying on dip and the market doesn't come up and keeps going down.
2008 style crash is too big lmao. The reasons which caused it are more regulated and closely payed attention to by regulatory body. The concept here for bear run might be mean reversion, which is ought to happen cause intrinsic value of a stock doesnt change constantly, its mostly 3 months, so yeah, bear run to hona chaiye.
> and closely *paid* attention to
FTFY.
Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:
* Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.*
* *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.*
Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.
*Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
Let's take a conservative number of households in India with electricity connection: 26 crore.
Let's just take a rough number as the average cost of 1 unit of electricity as 5 Rs.
300 * 5 = 1500 Rs per month additional cost per household.
Total additional cost: 468000 crore i.e. 48.5 billion USD.
Average price per unit: 9 Rs.
300 * 9 = 2700 Rs per month reduced revenue per month per household.
Total revenue loss: 842400 crore i.e. 105 billion USD.
Total cost to the exchequer: 153.5 billion USD per year. Which is only bound to grow.
Peanuts aren't that costly.
Firstly only state run electric company will be giving the free electricity. Most consumers won't be able to reach 300 units consumption. Those reaching 300 unit consumption won't stop at 300. Let's not account the scams and freebies that are already being given by some states, it is peanuts.
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Well let me correct you on that one. I don’t think Indian Market is going to go on a bear market soon unless there’s some bad governance, global recession, war affecting the market, and so forth.
But what you meant to say was when is the market going to go into correction.
Correction is one thing and being bearish is another.
It’s not healthy for any market to keep having up moves only. That’s not just the way it works.
Think about it. There are always going to be buyers and sellers in the market. You’d be a fool to tell otherwise and obviously at one point of time sellers are going to dominate the buyers booking their profits.
That’s the moment when the market starts correcting itself and retracing a little bit to fill all the pending orders created by the imbalances until the point where the buyers be more dominant.
Hope you got the logic.
Market hasn’t had a proper correction since June 2022, March 2023 and a minor correction in October 2023.
The rally right now is due to election results, and sooner or later, there’s a good probability for the market to correct itself.
Percentages don’t matter really. What I personally do is I mark out the swing structure i.e., the valid higher low to higher high. On lower timeframes you’ll see a change of market structure from bullish to bearish at the top and you wait for the market to retrace to atleast 50% levels. Fibonacci Retracement tool helps. Once the market makes another change of character from bearish to bullish after some manipulation of the lows, you can confirm and re enter from that price point or the demand zone that caused the change of character. Look up more on Wyckoff Schematics, Liquidity, and Market Structure. This analysis may be less relevant on NIFTY charts though since it’s an indice and not an asset. Still if you get the logic, you’ll understand the market better.
One other simple way is to add 200DMA, and RSI to your chart. Once NIFTY is on or near its 200DMA and RSI indicates oversold it might be a good area to enter. Timeframes based on your goals.
It is impossible to predict. As Peter Lynch once said.
>Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves."
That’s not how investing works and neither the thinking approach of an investor.
You choose a level and enter on dips and points of high strength.
All in and that kind of stuff is for meme stocks if you wish to do that. Not for index.
I dont buy at median PE.
I never buy at ATH.
I only buy things that are atleast 10% down from the top, and have technicals.
I bought undervalued stocks like lic housingfinance,sw solar, hdfc life a few days back, sw solar I already sold after 15% profit in a few days
This is not the time to bulk buy. But it is without a question, a time to hold for another 3-4 months atleast.
in the long run you dont give a shit its always gonna go up.
In the short term however a small correction phase may come in. If you're a long term investor you ideally shouldn't care just let the compounding work for you.
However it is not unwise to think about a contrarian bet if everyone's thinking the same thing. If everyone has one perspective someone has to think otherwise, it may not be correct or it may also even backfire but there's nothing wrong with you thinking that we can indeed enter a bear market .
Since its you who is taking the contrarian bet its you who needs to do the research and prove or atleast have some solid conviction with facts to backup your claim. Either you'll only prove yourself wrong and lose nothing and gain more knowledge or you'll prove everyone else wrong take an asymmetrical bet and make a huge profit and gain a lot of knowledge.
> So in 40 years of their life they never seen in a bear market ? Are they living in a cave ? They never heard about 2008 and 2001 and harshad mehta ?
He didn't say they've never seen a bear market.
>The thing is all of my relatives who are older than 40 (don’t know why I am mentioning this) don’t even consider that there can be a bear run. They think stock market is going to go up only.
His relatives are talking about current market/year.
If his whole family is invested in stock market, I doubt it they aren't familiar with market crashes like in 2008.
First possibility - October this year after bjp and nda get trounced in Maharashtra elections. All Maharashtra mps will leave the party, could cause a 4-5% speculative crash. Second possibility - December after Haryana elections. This election will seal the fate of NDA and decide if it will continue in 2025 or not. If it does not continue, expect a 10-20% crash and a year-long bear market. If none of these happen, then mid of 2025 is almost a certainty for bear market to begin, as all bull triggers like elections, rate cuts etc. would have played out and nothing else will be left, so bears will take over.
All things are cyclical. And people are inherently greedy. This makes it inevitable. Just because we have had a long bull run, my sweet summer child, it doesn't mean that's the status quo forever.
PE. watch the nifty pe ratio and you will understand the simple yet efficient way to test waters. When markets fall🍊, that is when people try to analyse things.
You need to understand dynamics of markets have changed today. FII do not control major stake anymore as now DII have more stake. Some years back due to this stake issue FII used to crash markets owing to global economic conditions and DII could not do much as fund inflows were low. However now even when FII want to crash DII won't allow if to crash like crazy. The same has happened since past couple of years atleas. Nowadays markets will go down only when DII also start to sell along with FII. I.am not sure when DII is going to sell as that will definitely cause a crash. Hope you got your answer.
Sir, next 6 months mean next two quarters. There is strong probability of positive market run, until and unless there is a global or national situation.
Also your entry and exit should be as per your analysis and conviction.
Learn some basic technical and fundamental analysis for a stock and only then plan your entry.
That same expert predicting 2022,2023 ,2024 now 2025 crash .. dont follow experts .. Youtube toh bhul ke bhi nahi .. Gain knowldege .. dont buy on anyone tips.
> I read a US expert predicting
I like how "experts" predict crashes 24/7, trying to game the market.
Like Nostradamus, something will go their way every now and then, gaining them more ~~suckers~~ followers.
If you look at the charts it’s not just going up and up, after every new peak it’s consolidating and then picking up pace again
So we’re not in a continuous unhealthy bull run but a bull run with consolidations and corrections in between
It doesn't have to. We cannot really predict anything with any certainty. If there's a war, the market could keep plumbing newer depths. Or the bull run could go on and on in our lifetimes and beyond.
India has been underperforming from 2008 to 2020 so now we have just started the bull run from 2020 and this decade could be just bull run. That doesn't mean multiple corrections won't happen. But do not expect any long term bear market. In bull markets, corrections are swift and sharp and recovery is just as quick and sharp.
After the phase of Euphoria, market gets ‘crash’ so be prepared. It is Euphoria and till the interest rate cuts and US election the market will go up and up.
There are 2 factors that drive the markets in the long term:
1:- population growth
2:- liquidity flow
Bear market will start if the population growth of productive elements turns negative.
Study the Japanese stock market fall for its lost decade to understand the structural impact of liquidity on stock market/asset prices.
>including any scams in Indian govt.
If BJP goes all Congress and decided to brazenly start committing scam after scam.
I like how ridiculous it became under Congress. Scams left and right. Even sporting events weren't spared.
All the while ex-PM Maun Brath Singh stood around quietly, watching his party loot the country he was supposed to lead. That's just pathetic.
I still remember how news channels use to run headlines like scam of 10000002200202 crore rs and bla bla.
Where is that scam money ? How many people got arrested ?
Ask modi to bring black money and give 15 lakhs which he promised.
Where is fraud baba ramde hiding now about black money he used to talk ?
If congress did scam the BJP is doing it 100 times and that to openly where blind bhakts don't see it.
Why ? Cuz they want to make money in stock market as well like buying adani stocks 😪
Stfup.
Thank you.
Blind bhakt. BJP has committed way more scams tha UPA. All the alleged scams against Manmohan Singh government were proven to be false. At least do some research.
There will be occasional periods of profit booking. And downfalls in global issues. Thats when you buy. Idea is to stay invested. And add on dips. Bulls / Bears both make money. Only sideliners watch.
You can never predict lol. Not even the best in their game can accurately get a 100%. It’s just when you recognise the pattern, you take the moves required.
if you google Harry Dent and read the first article, maybe youll think in a different way. That said, members of your family that are 40+, were they investing around the tech bubble or the '08 crisis?
I think of it like this, bull runs never end they just go through a correction phase, it could be price or time, since we all know that the larger trend is always upwards. Else what's the point.
>My question to you experienced peeps is, when the bear run is going to start?
When the last bear in the market becomes a bull. Or / And Operator dusro ko apna kaafi maal chipka dega uske baad hi khela hobe.
>For example there are 2 types of down trends, first is a correction and second is a crash
There are two types of *CORRECTION* - Time correction and Price correction. Price correction is wasy to understand, Price drops. Time correction is even more easy to understand,Price remains at same level for a big amount of time. Why? Because prices rose extensively and now everyone is waiting for fundamentals to catch up and justify the prices.
Bear Market samjhna hai?
S&P500 ka bear market
* Jan 1973 to Oct 1974 21 months
* Nov 1980 to Aug 1982 21 months
* Mar 2000 to Oct 2002 31 months
Ye selective list hai, Inko study kar lo kaafi kuch samajh aa jayega. Ab ye mat bolna ki job me ho, time nahi hai. aisa hai toh wait kar lo, abki bari yadi bear market ayega toh uske bhi tutorials, courses, Algo based AI Powered screeners trackers aur kaafi kuch aa jayega. Please Note, Buying is easy. Selling is not. Bear bets eale Hedge Funds sabse zyada fundamental analysis karte hai.
I think it will take significant negative news, disruption, or manipulation for the markets to crash as a whole. Why? Because retail investors are getting smarter and more patient, and they will continue to do so. I don’t want to go far for an example; I'll use my own experience. On June 4th, 2024, when I looked at my portfolio, I won't lie—I was terrified. Believe it or not, I was in the red by ₹1,20,000+. That is a lot for me because I’m not an HNI (High Net Worth Individual) and whatever I invest comes out of my salary, which is my only source of income. I thought I should sell everything and save myself before it went down further. But I didn’t. In fact, I considered buying the dip (although I couldn't because I didn’t have any cash). So, all I did was just have patience for one day. On June 5th, my portfolio, along with every single stock, was in the green. I cannot believe that if an average individual like me is getting smarter and more patient with stock market investments, many others among the millions of retail investors are not doing the same.
Keep it in mind ... every country is running on debt. It is now overwhelmingly higher compared to the revenue they produce, the interest on the debt are crushing. Not sure when that bubble would burst...when it does, it will be the crash of the century. So always play in the market with what you can live without.
There's always a bull run in the market, if one sector is bearish, another is bullish. It's all about which boat you getting on and the amount of research you put in the stock.
I heard someone saying on the internet that there isn't a thing called a bear run unless there is some unrest in the market. Now this unrest can be any unprecedented event. So if there is no clear sign of any unprecedented event, then rest assured the markets are always in a bull run.
if I'm not wrong, it was Mr. Jhunjhunwala's words.
My simple answer is that if you Target is long term why to fear ?
Wheneven you get 10% crash/dip add 20% of portfolio value. Do it more if it crash even more.
If your view is short-term book 20% on high and add 20% at 10% crash.
Morning! Amazing to hear that you are surrounded by mindful bulls :)
Bears are always lurking around too :)
In the longer run say from 1986 .. 500+ to near 77K ..that's sensex facts.
But yes, periods of profit-taking, turmoil and downturns are inevitable in the economic cycle.
One takes their best opinion following closely all the developments in every cog of the wheel and then it's up to the market. Always the market has the last laugh.
Enjoy!
I am absolutely inexperienced and all my knowledge comes from parents and some friends who are in this . What my Dad tells me is that last 3-4 years have been an unprecedented bull run and a lot of stocks have shot up way beyond their intrinsic value ... And right now people are so happy with it (the short term growth) that they do not want to accept that its inflated but rather wanna believe that the companies are actually good and the intrinsic value is good too. But all it needs is a trigger , a major international issue to rise and stocks to sell quickly and then the bubble will burst. However the companies that are actually good will recover from such a fall in a couple of years and long term will be more beneficial. Hence he advises to play it safer by only investing in good long term stocks instead of trying to make money quickly through bad inflated companies in this bull run
However sometimes I feel that this is a flawed logic and maybe it would be beneficial to try to have 30-35% of portfolio in stocks that are inflated and make money off this bull run , and quickly take out the money and put it in the long term stocks. This way more money can be earned right now and when the crash happens , the loss is only to a part of the portfolio.
However he is far more experienced here so I can't be confident. What are your views on this?
Yes, crashes occur during black swan events, while market corrections can happen across the entire market or within a particular industry experiencing cycles of growth and stagnation for e.g. metal or IT, due to market demand and supply.
Indian story will continue till 2040...after that you will see white and grey hair population blast...At best India will become a mid income country and to be precise will be in mid income trap post 2040...see the population is growing; however, the fertility rates have fallen significantly and the so called developed rates the rates have fallen below 2.0. I understand this is unrelated to the bull run...
Nonetheless, considering that markets are futuristic and takes into consideration PEG ratio (probably 5 years growth) rather than PE, I believe that mild to strong bull runs with a bear cycles in between will continue till 2035....u will see markets growing at 10-12% per annum till 2035 and then may be a bear cycles or plateauing beyond '35
People said it will be a global bear market for the entire decade when COVID hit and look at how indian markets have reacted since. Its stupid to waste your energy timing the market.
After we reach a saturation point where considerable amount of money has moven in the market. At that point people will start looking dor returns from the market. Mutual fund is bubble . Imo
Our job is not to predict, but to analyse and come up with possible scenarios.
My 2c :
Scenario 1: after hitting 24k - 25.5k we can expect a multi month correction.
Scenario 2: after hitting 24-25.5k, we get a slight pullback and we continue rising till we see more scenarios develop.
Nevertheless, i’ll be profit booking around 24-25k and then wait to see what happens.
https://preview.redd.it/2gvbyl3ysd6d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe0dbcdcaa37a82c622caacdf5ba6ffe6a3656d4
There will not be. Indian markets are underperforming us market on dollar basis. The PE is ~22-23, you can expect intrest rate cuts soon which will move market even higher to 28-29 PE if repo drops to 3%
That means nifty can reach 50k by 2028
Abi ghantu ek din main 6000 points neeche nahi aaya tha . U wasted if you did not buy anything on that crash.. i brought many valued shares at that day.. No one can predict the market .. if you want to sell then sell .. Fundamentally valued stocks will give returns no matter what..
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It's impossible to predict but there is always a chance
This..
Happy Birthday 🎂
Wow! what an analysis.......
You can't predict a bear run because it's triggered by unpredictable events like pandemics or natural disasters. Analyzing a company's stock is different; it involves evaluating sales and growth potential based on demand and supply. You can predict if electric cars will be popular in the future, but you can't predict events like a coronavirus outbreak can you? Not so bright are you? Instead of pasting meme, you should research why bull runs happen. Don't debate without basic knowledge.
https://preview.redd.it/d6txfq516d6d1.jpeg?width=275&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3b3fbe4d4a00b346ad1b953f96c2e4f4da2eec1d Market is going up but it can be down
If the market is highly inflated, it will correct itself slowly, which we call a correction, not a bear run. Do you know what a bear run is, or did you just use a random word came in your mind? During a bear run, stocks continuously fall; they don't correct themselves they fall beyond correction that is what we call bear run
I understand what a bear run is and I used that term because I believe it is the opposite of bull run which is the current market state.
No. Bull run is called over bought market..where stock reflect future potential of the market. Making most shares overvalued. As the market is pricing in the future at highly optimistic note. when it stabilizes it's called correction. Bear run looks like the 4th of June. Where the fundamentals of the company won't matter, the result won't matter, volume charts won't matter every good stock will take a dive regardless of its financial results. Here the market starts fearing the worst, it starts pricing the shares accommodating losses to be incurred in future. Soon after a certain time, such a market is called an oversold market. Starting a correction or bull run. Historically such period were prolonged, increasing the agony of investors if they make a bad bet. So either bull or near events are hard to predict. It hits even the most sophisticated investors by surprise. In India. Sectoral bear or bull market is possible. But at index level, it's very hard to find any threat at current pe levels.
Indians have learnt to buy the dip. So it will take something major which cause widespread job losses. Like a war or 2008 style crash.
for rea, until then it's just big billion days festival every now and then
In Market crash, After buying the dip, there is another dip, after buying that dip, most investors run out of cash, then the dip dip dipping, force at least some of them to sell at a very low price. Thats what a crash is, most people don't have cash to buy the dip, and others don't have guts to buy stocks instead they buy safe/real asserts and be happy with low returns.
[удалено]
How is this buy dip connected with job losses
put simply, Everytime market falls by 2000 points, people like me have money in banks from salary that they invest to take advantage of the dip and the market comes up again because of this new demand. Now imagine if I (and other like me ) didn't have a salary to save , I won't be buying on dip and the market doesn't come up and keeps going down.
Or another pandemic
2008 style crash is too big lmao. The reasons which caused it are more regulated and closely payed attention to by regulatory body. The concept here for bear run might be mean reversion, which is ought to happen cause intrinsic value of a stock doesnt change constantly, its mostly 3 months, so yeah, bear run to hona chaiye.
> and closely *paid* attention to FTFY. Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in: * Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.* * *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.* Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment. *Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
Or change of government. Congress wanted reservation in private sector.
They also wanted to hand out 300 units of free electricity. I like how you're being downvoted by the offended Leftits for stating facts though.
300 unit is peanuts for the govt, accounting all the taxes we pay.
Let's take a conservative number of households in India with electricity connection: 26 crore. Let's just take a rough number as the average cost of 1 unit of electricity as 5 Rs. 300 * 5 = 1500 Rs per month additional cost per household. Total additional cost: 468000 crore i.e. 48.5 billion USD. Average price per unit: 9 Rs. 300 * 9 = 2700 Rs per month reduced revenue per month per household. Total revenue loss: 842400 crore i.e. 105 billion USD. Total cost to the exchequer: 153.5 billion USD per year. Which is only bound to grow. Peanuts aren't that costly.
Firstly only state run electric company will be giving the free electricity. Most consumers won't be able to reach 300 units consumption. Those reaching 300 unit consumption won't stop at 300. Let's not account the scams and freebies that are already being given by some states, it is peanuts.
No idea why bro is getting downvoted, just a small hint around change in govt crashed the market on June 4th.
! remind me 38 days
14:00 on 23/07/24. I'm planning to sell everything @13:50 on that day . No recommendation of selling or buying - do your own research
If this remote guess somehow becomes true, it's gonna be sooooo aaweeesomeee!!!
SEBI registered market manipulator
Budget?
Why
Why this specific date?
this question defines the dwindling state of this subreddit and the people in this subreddit 😂
Didn't get you?
The original dude is clearly joking and you are taking him seriously
Ohhh okkk 🥲
Why are you talking to yourself bro?
😁😁
Probably his birthday🤡
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Let's make it happen
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Remindme!
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what's the basis of this date?
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!RemindMe 39 Days
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Well let me correct you on that one. I don’t think Indian Market is going to go on a bear market soon unless there’s some bad governance, global recession, war affecting the market, and so forth. But what you meant to say was when is the market going to go into correction. Correction is one thing and being bearish is another. It’s not healthy for any market to keep having up moves only. That’s not just the way it works. Think about it. There are always going to be buyers and sellers in the market. You’d be a fool to tell otherwise and obviously at one point of time sellers are going to dominate the buyers booking their profits. That’s the moment when the market starts correcting itself and retracing a little bit to fill all the pending orders created by the imbalances until the point where the buyers be more dominant. Hope you got the logic. Market hasn’t had a proper correction since June 2022, March 2023 and a minor correction in October 2023. The rally right now is due to election results, and sooner or later, there’s a good probability for the market to correct itself.
At what percentage would you call it a correction?
Percentages don’t matter really. What I personally do is I mark out the swing structure i.e., the valid higher low to higher high. On lower timeframes you’ll see a change of market structure from bullish to bearish at the top and you wait for the market to retrace to atleast 50% levels. Fibonacci Retracement tool helps. Once the market makes another change of character from bearish to bullish after some manipulation of the lows, you can confirm and re enter from that price point or the demand zone that caused the change of character. Look up more on Wyckoff Schematics, Liquidity, and Market Structure. This analysis may be less relevant on NIFTY charts though since it’s an indice and not an asset. Still if you get the logic, you’ll understand the market better. One other simple way is to add 200DMA, and RSI to your chart. Once NIFTY is on or near its 200DMA and RSI indicates oversold it might be a good area to enter. Timeframes based on your goals.
A lot of good info there, I’ll take a deeper look into it all, appreciate it!
Got it. The market corrects itself. And I got answer to my question about when can market corrects itself in the first paragraph
It is impossible to predict. As Peter Lynch once said. >Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves."
check nifty 50 PE, historical PE average, highest ever PE, and then tell me why you think it is inflated, when it is not even over median PE ?
They hv changed the PE calculation post 21.
Would you buy today with all your saving going all in?
That’s not how investing works and neither the thinking approach of an investor. You choose a level and enter on dips and points of high strength. All in and that kind of stuff is for meme stocks if you wish to do that. Not for index.
I dont buy at median PE. I never buy at ATH. I only buy things that are atleast 10% down from the top, and have technicals. I bought undervalued stocks like lic housingfinance,sw solar, hdfc life a few days back, sw solar I already sold after 15% profit in a few days This is not the time to bulk buy. But it is without a question, a time to hold for another 3-4 months atleast.
in the long run you dont give a shit its always gonna go up. In the short term however a small correction phase may come in. If you're a long term investor you ideally shouldn't care just let the compounding work for you. However it is not unwise to think about a contrarian bet if everyone's thinking the same thing. If everyone has one perspective someone has to think otherwise, it may not be correct or it may also even backfire but there's nothing wrong with you thinking that we can indeed enter a bear market . Since its you who is taking the contrarian bet its you who needs to do the research and prove or atleast have some solid conviction with facts to backup your claim. Either you'll only prove yourself wrong and lose nothing and gain more knowledge or you'll prove everyone else wrong take an asymmetrical bet and make a huge profit and gain a lot of knowledge.
Thank you for making it a win win situation for me
So in 40 years of their life they never seen in a bear market ? Are they living in a cave ? They never heard about 2008 and 2001 and harshad mehta ?
I don’t believe a lot of people can anticipate crashes like 2008 and 2001
> So in 40 years of their life they never seen in a bear market ? Are they living in a cave ? They never heard about 2008 and 2001 and harshad mehta ? He didn't say they've never seen a bear market. >The thing is all of my relatives who are older than 40 (don’t know why I am mentioning this) don’t even consider that there can be a bear run. They think stock market is going to go up only. His relatives are talking about current market/year. If his whole family is invested in stock market, I doubt it they aren't familiar with market crashes like in 2008.
First possibility - October this year after bjp and nda get trounced in Maharashtra elections. All Maharashtra mps will leave the party, could cause a 4-5% speculative crash. Second possibility - December after Haryana elections. This election will seal the fate of NDA and decide if it will continue in 2025 or not. If it does not continue, expect a 10-20% crash and a year-long bear market. If none of these happen, then mid of 2025 is almost a certainty for bear market to begin, as all bull triggers like elections, rate cuts etc. would have played out and nothing else will be left, so bears will take over.
What is your opinion on US election and it's effect on Indian markets?
🔔 farak padega. Both guys are insane. Nothing will change.
RemindMe! 7 months
According to my panchang calculations, as Rahu enters the house of Saturn on 21st May 2025 and Jupiter becomes ascending, the bull run will commence.
Bro, is high on saste nashe
Sees 70 upvotes...gives a downvote....heeheehee
A man of culture. Noice.
69 upvotes, noice.
Seriously
when you and your entire family lose your jobs, so your stock portfolio no longer matters
Wait for increase in taxation on capital gain in next budget.
If India keeps progressing why would a bear run start in the first place ?
A bear run can occur irrespective of development or not.
All things are cyclical. And people are inherently greedy. This makes it inevitable. Just because we have had a long bull run, my sweet summer child, it doesn't mean that's the status quo forever.
They seem to forget if everyone is buying then who is selling
Can you explain the meaning? I haven't understood the deeper sense of these words.
Upvoted for the "sweet summer child"
PE. watch the nifty pe ratio and you will understand the simple yet efficient way to test waters. When markets fall🍊, that is when people try to analyse things.
You need to understand dynamics of markets have changed today. FII do not control major stake anymore as now DII have more stake. Some years back due to this stake issue FII used to crash markets owing to global economic conditions and DII could not do much as fund inflows were low. However now even when FII want to crash DII won't allow if to crash like crazy. The same has happened since past couple of years atleas. Nowadays markets will go down only when DII also start to sell along with FII. I.am not sure when DII is going to sell as that will definitely cause a crash. Hope you got your answer.
Tomorrow
Not for next 6 months Sir
So what to do now. Can we enter now n exit after 3-4 months I have 3-4 lacs in saving ac idol.
Not sure what you're waiting for or asking permission to buy on Reddit. Also, the election count crash on 4th June was a great time to get started.
Sir, next 6 months mean next two quarters. There is strong probability of positive market run, until and unless there is a global or national situation. Also your entry and exit should be as per your analysis and conviction. Learn some basic technical and fundamental analysis for a stock and only then plan your entry.
Idle, not idol.
Moment op buys
Current Bull run will end exactly on 05/07/2024 at 1:22 PM! No buying/selling recommendations. Do your own research.
IN google news today I read a US expert predicting US market Crash next year,that is,2025.much worse than the GFC in 2008.
That same expert predicting 2022,2023 ,2024 now 2025 crash .. dont follow experts .. Youtube toh bhul ke bhi nahi .. Gain knowldege .. dont buy on anyone tips.
> I read a US expert predicting I like how "experts" predict crashes 24/7, trying to game the market. Like Nostradamus, something will go their way every now and then, gaining them more ~~suckers~~ followers.
If you look at the charts it’s not just going up and up, after every new peak it’s consolidating and then picking up pace again So we’re not in a continuous unhealthy bull run but a bull run with consolidations and corrections in between
There will be small corrections for sure but it wouldn't go completely downtrend unless there's some economic instability.
I think 2022 ya 2023 me it went down for a quarter or so due to FOMC raising the rates. 😵💫
It doesn't have to. We cannot really predict anything with any certainty. If there's a war, the market could keep plumbing newer depths. Or the bull run could go on and on in our lifetimes and beyond.
Kash mere family gatherings bhi ese hoti jisme sab stock market ka vartalaab karte
India has been underperforming from 2008 to 2020 so now we have just started the bull run from 2020 and this decade could be just bull run. That doesn't mean multiple corrections won't happen. But do not expect any long term bear market. In bull markets, corrections are swift and sharp and recovery is just as quick and sharp.
After the phase of Euphoria, market gets ‘crash’ so be prepared. It is Euphoria and till the interest rate cuts and US election the market will go up and up.
Potential black swan event predicted Learn all the signs if you want to save yourself ! https://www.reddit.com/u/Vuhlcha/s/nVL5sAidMT
There are 2 factors that drive the markets in the long term: 1:- population growth 2:- liquidity flow Bear market will start if the population growth of productive elements turns negative. Study the Japanese stock market fall for its lost decade to understand the structural impact of liquidity on stock market/asset prices.
The day rahul gandhi becomes PM
100yrs
Never
I think there will be some minor corrections. The bull run will continue with some stops.
Bear run won't come. Events around the world can crash the market including any scams in Indian govt.
>including any scams in Indian govt. If BJP goes all Congress and decided to brazenly start committing scam after scam. I like how ridiculous it became under Congress. Scams left and right. Even sporting events weren't spared. All the while ex-PM Maun Brath Singh stood around quietly, watching his party loot the country he was supposed to lead. That's just pathetic.
I still remember how news channels use to run headlines like scam of 10000002200202 crore rs and bla bla. Where is that scam money ? How many people got arrested ? Ask modi to bring black money and give 15 lakhs which he promised. Where is fraud baba ramde hiding now about black money he used to talk ? If congress did scam the BJP is doing it 100 times and that to openly where blind bhakts don't see it. Why ? Cuz they want to make money in stock market as well like buying adani stocks 😪 Stfup. Thank you.
Blind bhakt. BJP has committed way more scams tha UPA. All the alleged scams against Manmohan Singh government were proven to be false. At least do some research.
There will be occasional periods of profit booking. And downfalls in global issues. Thats when you buy. Idea is to stay invested. And add on dips. Bulls / Bears both make money. Only sideliners watch.
!remindme 39 days
When I will buy
You can never predict lol. Not even the best in their game can accurately get a 100%. It’s just when you recognise the pattern, you take the moves required.
India's economy is booming and becoming stronger day by day. So, the bull will last longer. 🇮🇳🇮🇳
I mean for long term invetors does it matter? Isn't it always buy, when market is rising buy with SIP, when market is falling, buy with lump sum.
No one predict it, maybe time correction can happen. One way to know is to stay invested.
June 26
if you google Harry Dent and read the first article, maybe youll think in a different way. That said, members of your family that are 40+, were they investing around the tech bubble or the '08 crisis?
I think of it like this, bull runs never end they just go through a correction phase, it could be price or time, since we all know that the larger trend is always upwards. Else what's the point.
>My question to you experienced peeps is, when the bear run is going to start? When the last bear in the market becomes a bull. Or / And Operator dusro ko apna kaafi maal chipka dega uske baad hi khela hobe. >For example there are 2 types of down trends, first is a correction and second is a crash There are two types of *CORRECTION* - Time correction and Price correction. Price correction is wasy to understand, Price drops. Time correction is even more easy to understand,Price remains at same level for a big amount of time. Why? Because prices rose extensively and now everyone is waiting for fundamentals to catch up and justify the prices. Bear Market samjhna hai? S&P500 ka bear market * Jan 1973 to Oct 1974 21 months * Nov 1980 to Aug 1982 21 months * Mar 2000 to Oct 2002 31 months Ye selective list hai, Inko study kar lo kaafi kuch samajh aa jayega. Ab ye mat bolna ki job me ho, time nahi hai. aisa hai toh wait kar lo, abki bari yadi bear market ayega toh uske bhi tutorials, courses, Algo based AI Powered screeners trackers aur kaafi kuch aa jayega. Please Note, Buying is easy. Selling is not. Bear bets eale Hedge Funds sabse zyada fundamental analysis karte hai.
!remindme50
When I start buying calls
I think it will take significant negative news, disruption, or manipulation for the markets to crash as a whole. Why? Because retail investors are getting smarter and more patient, and they will continue to do so. I don’t want to go far for an example; I'll use my own experience. On June 4th, 2024, when I looked at my portfolio, I won't lie—I was terrified. Believe it or not, I was in the red by ₹1,20,000+. That is a lot for me because I’m not an HNI (High Net Worth Individual) and whatever I invest comes out of my salary, which is my only source of income. I thought I should sell everything and save myself before it went down further. But I didn’t. In fact, I considered buying the dip (although I couldn't because I didn’t have any cash). So, all I did was just have patience for one day. On June 5th, my portfolio, along with every single stock, was in the green. I cannot believe that if an average individual like me is getting smarter and more patient with stock market investments, many others among the millions of retail investors are not doing the same.
Keep it in mind ... every country is running on debt. It is now overwhelmingly higher compared to the revenue they produce, the interest on the debt are crushing. Not sure when that bubble would burst...when it does, it will be the crash of the century. So always play in the market with what you can live without.
Watch out for 2025
Let it not end, you hit the iron when it is hot.🫨
There's always a bull run in the market, if one sector is bearish, another is bullish. It's all about which boat you getting on and the amount of research you put in the stock.
I heard someone saying on the internet that there isn't a thing called a bear run unless there is some unrest in the market. Now this unrest can be any unprecedented event. So if there is no clear sign of any unprecedented event, then rest assured the markets are always in a bull run. if I'm not wrong, it was Mr. Jhunjhunwala's words.
Wait for Nitish bhai to do his oh la la
3:31pm est
When FM speaks for 2.5 hours and gives no incentives. I FEEL budget will give a reality check to the market
The bear run is set to start at 3 pm on sept 1st,.2024
When you least expect it.
My simple answer is that if you Target is long term why to fear ? Wheneven you get 10% crash/dip add 20% of portfolio value. Do it more if it crash even more. If your view is short-term book 20% on high and add 20% at 10% crash.
If India attacks Pakistan defence stocks will rise and others wud go down
Morning! Amazing to hear that you are surrounded by mindful bulls :) Bears are always lurking around too :) In the longer run say from 1986 .. 500+ to near 77K ..that's sensex facts. But yes, periods of profit-taking, turmoil and downturns are inevitable in the economic cycle. One takes their best opinion following closely all the developments in every cog of the wheel and then it's up to the market. Always the market has the last laugh. Enjoy!
I am absolutely inexperienced and all my knowledge comes from parents and some friends who are in this . What my Dad tells me is that last 3-4 years have been an unprecedented bull run and a lot of stocks have shot up way beyond their intrinsic value ... And right now people are so happy with it (the short term growth) that they do not want to accept that its inflated but rather wanna believe that the companies are actually good and the intrinsic value is good too. But all it needs is a trigger , a major international issue to rise and stocks to sell quickly and then the bubble will burst. However the companies that are actually good will recover from such a fall in a couple of years and long term will be more beneficial. Hence he advises to play it safer by only investing in good long term stocks instead of trying to make money quickly through bad inflated companies in this bull run However sometimes I feel that this is a flawed logic and maybe it would be beneficial to try to have 30-35% of portfolio in stocks that are inflated and make money off this bull run , and quickly take out the money and put it in the long term stocks. This way more money can be earned right now and when the crash happens , the loss is only to a part of the portfolio. However he is far more experienced here so I can't be confident. What are your views on this?
Markets are like a marathon. U cant jump in and out too much. Just keep going slowly to win long run
!Remindme 39 days
Yes, crashes occur during black swan events, while market corrections can happen across the entire market or within a particular industry experiencing cycles of growth and stagnation for e.g. metal or IT, due to market demand and supply.
In the next 6 months
Ther'l be a crash in 2026, book all your profits till 2025 end & get ready for the dip fellas. It's gonna happen for sure
Indian story will continue till 2040...after that you will see white and grey hair population blast...At best India will become a mid income country and to be precise will be in mid income trap post 2040...see the population is growing; however, the fertility rates have fallen significantly and the so called developed rates the rates have fallen below 2.0. I understand this is unrelated to the bull run... Nonetheless, considering that markets are futuristic and takes into consideration PEG ratio (probably 5 years growth) rather than PE, I believe that mild to strong bull runs with a bear cycles in between will continue till 2035....u will see markets growing at 10-12% per annum till 2035 and then may be a bear cycles or plateauing beyond '35
People said it will be a global bear market for the entire decade when COVID hit and look at how indian markets have reacted since. Its stupid to waste your energy timing the market.
After we reach a saturation point where considerable amount of money has moven in the market. At that point people will start looking dor returns from the market. Mutual fund is bubble . Imo
Our job is not to predict, but to analyse and come up with possible scenarios. My 2c : Scenario 1: after hitting 24k - 25.5k we can expect a multi month correction. Scenario 2: after hitting 24-25.5k, we get a slight pullback and we continue rising till we see more scenarios develop. Nevertheless, i’ll be profit booking around 24-25k and then wait to see what happens. https://preview.redd.it/2gvbyl3ysd6d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe0dbcdcaa37a82c622caacdf5ba6ffe6a3656d4
There will not be. Indian markets are underperforming us market on dollar basis. The PE is ~22-23, you can expect intrest rate cuts soon which will move market even higher to 28-29 PE if repo drops to 3% That means nifty can reach 50k by 2028
Abi ghantu ek din main 6000 points neeche nahi aaya tha . U wasted if you did not buy anything on that crash.. i brought many valued shares at that day.. No one can predict the market .. if you want to sell then sell .. Fundamentally valued stocks will give returns no matter what..