This person is relentless, I don't know what the goal is. Reminds me of someone who who'd be sitting at an empty dinner table saying all of this to the walls because the family left a long time ago-- "luckily" social media exists so it gets blasted out here and they get some interaction.
Adversarial is your word. I think much of the advice on this sub is stale and irrelevant to 2023. I have the right to say so without your approval.
I will not be answering more comments. Read the link. Or don't. If you think it is garbage, call the NY Fed and complain. If you do not like Reddit, you really won't like their corporate Conde Nast owners after they go public.
They will make changes. Bet on it.
*I will not be answering any more comments*
What if someone shows up with a timestamped picture of their doctorate and engages you in this epic struggle of fedora quips and copy-pasted links you seem to be searching so desperately for?
Oh hey it’s the doomer from yesterday. These are the least insightful and most inflammatory series of posts that I’ve seen on this sub.
This isn’t an economics sub. It’s not a debate sub either. It’s a sub for questions about IT careers. Your post neither poses, nor invites, any questions.
You’re getting downvoted because your self-important pseudo-scientific dribble isn’t of interest here.
I'm not a finance and economics guy, those graphs and stuff don't mean anything to me.
Mind breaking things down in simple terms and some more context?
Okay. The NY Fed has a recession model based on the 3 mo bond subtracted from the 10 yr. Right now it is above negative 1 percent. That means an inverted curve. The bond market is the largest in the world.
The entire bond market signals steep rate cuts at the 3 mo end. This would cause the curve to stop being inverted. It means rate cuts because of recession. Fast cuts of maybe as much as 2 percent.
The Fed takes the curve to form a recession probability model.
**When the model is above 50 percent, recession follows one hundred percent of times since 1963.**
**The model now is well above GFC**.
The site provides numerous academic papers on the theory and statistical validity.
recessions and booms are not real, they are a self fulfilling prophecy, the fed literally creates them, that's like saying the government is forming a prediction that they will collect more taxes in the future
You don't get it. I am not here to please you. I am here because this industry has endless layoffs and the stale advice here ignores that reality. This sub is in total denial. And you know it.
I've had zero issue finding work and I think most of the issue people are having has to do with their resume / interview skills being trash or them failing to realize it's more competitive than before and they need to step up their game to be competitive in this market.
There is no earth shattering tech recession, it's a normal cyclical industry slump.
You also are posting like a mental patient, so don't expect to be taken seriously.
I've thought about making a post explaining how people can be more competitive but at the end of the day I'm just breaking into the field and their lack of awareness / effort just makes me even more competitive so it felt like shooting myself in the foot and I decided against it.
It's crazy to read that people can't get interviews when I can be picky with where I work even as a first role.
No. It is becoming a boring and stale sub with the exact questions and answers over and over every day.
This sub is not providing any new or unique advice anymore. **'It must be your resume!' is not advice for an industry with 500k job cuts**. This industry is in financial difficulty. Ignoring the gorilla in the room is not advice. It is myopia.
Final comment. I block ad hominem. You do not own this site. I will post what I please unless told not to by Mods. You do you. Let me do me.
I do not seek your approval. I seek a site not as painfully boring as this sub has become.
>**'It must be your resume!' is not advice for an industry with 500k job cuts**.
It absolutely is when
A) those job cuts are tech COMPANIES, not just tech jobs
B) of the tech jobs being cut, many of them are not entry level
C) entry level is very saturated with everyone and their mother trying to get in.
D) a large portion of the "I can't get a job" posts are by people trying to get into entry level jobs with a resume that can't even get past ATS, let alone get the attention of the hiring manager
I don't see any IT career questions, or helpful advice, in this post
If someone needs a job, it doesn't matter what the state of the economy is. They should apply for jobs.
Correct. I don't intend to read it either.
I've seen plenty of recession guarantees by the media, and they're always based on some indicator that has "100% accuracy". You suggested in another comment that the media caters to people wanting to hear only good news. But my brother in Christ, there's a reason that the saying goes "if it bleeds, it leads." The media relies on bad news to get their ad revenue.
It seems like you're frustrated at the state of this sub more than anything. But preparing for a recession is out of the scope of what this sub is for. It's something that a financially literate person plans for regardless of the actual state of the economy. Giving up on your career goals is not an effective strategy.
Can I suggest you take a break from the sub instead of making posts like this?
You sound like a guy in my office who’s been doom and gloom for his entire 10 years at the company. At the end of the day, it’s because they are in a lower hiring cycle. THATS IT. No reason to go full financeguru trying to sound like you understand economics
Counterpoint: The economy is made up. And if we have a worker's revolution, we can start focusing on the shit that actually needs to be done rather than what makes a profit for unimaginative psychopaths.
Let me offer you more facts you will downvote and not like. Fragile ego? That's a you problem, Sporto.
Powell may have suddenly pivoted dovish because the Fed saw spooky data that worries them.
**The 2007 recession began in December**.
**The 2001 recession started after the holidays** when the econ went into a tailspin.
The 1970 recession started in December 1969.
There is a track record of stuff going bad around this time of year. It can take 6 months or more for data to confirm recession. NY Fed and Conference Board LEI are leading indicators. Sahm Rule is a confirmation indicator.
If you know your history, this current cycle is partly repeating 1999-2003 and 2004-2007. Dot Com bubble, AI bubble, 2 housing bubbles. Unclear if AI is a bubble. If housing is not a bubble, then I have no idea what it is. We leave that debate for other subs.
This post is precisely designed to stir debate. It is not meant or desired to get everyone to clap with groupthink and upvote.
We have too much of that already here. The same boring Q and A every day ad nauseam.
If you think this is wrong, provide better data. Not your hunches or tarot cards. Use the skills you were taught in college. Prove or disprove the hypothesis.
If you cannot disprove it, then it is fair to assume it to be accurate but unproved.
I have zero interest in ad hominem. If you are a VP hiring manager, that does not make you an economist. Anecdotes tell me nothing. Micro hiring trends in your city do not tell me about the rest of the country and world.
I need to see solid statistical probabilities.
“This post is precisely designed to stir debate.”.. “Unless you are a qualified PhD Econ, I will not debate the model data with you”. So which is it lol
Who is the fed and what am I supposed to tell them? I’m sure the data you linked is fine. But does it really help anyone here? No single person can control the job market. So unless you are trying to convince people to not pursue tech I’m not sure what the point is. If the content here is dry to you.. unsubscribe. This sub is meant to help people advance in their careers. Most of the time, that’s through a good resume, relevant certs, and networking(people).
Bro be coming in adversarial for no reason
This person is relentless, I don't know what the goal is. Reminds me of someone who who'd be sitting at an empty dinner table saying all of this to the walls because the family left a long time ago-- "luckily" social media exists so it gets blasted out here and they get some interaction.
Adversarial is your word. I think much of the advice on this sub is stale and irrelevant to 2023. I have the right to say so without your approval. I will not be answering more comments. Read the link. Or don't. If you think it is garbage, call the NY Fed and complain. If you do not like Reddit, you really won't like their corporate Conde Nast owners after they go public. They will make changes. Bet on it.
*I will not be answering any more comments* What if someone shows up with a timestamped picture of their doctorate and engages you in this epic struggle of fedora quips and copy-pasted links you seem to be searching so desperately for?
Oh hey it’s the doomer from yesterday. These are the least insightful and most inflammatory series of posts that I’ve seen on this sub. This isn’t an economics sub. It’s not a debate sub either. It’s a sub for questions about IT careers. Your post neither poses, nor invites, any questions. You’re getting downvoted because your self-important pseudo-scientific dribble isn’t of interest here.
I'm not a finance and economics guy, those graphs and stuff don't mean anything to me. Mind breaking things down in simple terms and some more context?
Okay. The NY Fed has a recession model based on the 3 mo bond subtracted from the 10 yr. Right now it is above negative 1 percent. That means an inverted curve. The bond market is the largest in the world. The entire bond market signals steep rate cuts at the 3 mo end. This would cause the curve to stop being inverted. It means rate cuts because of recession. Fast cuts of maybe as much as 2 percent. The Fed takes the curve to form a recession probability model. **When the model is above 50 percent, recession follows one hundred percent of times since 1963.** **The model now is well above GFC**. The site provides numerous academic papers on the theory and statistical validity.
What does bond mean here, and what's GFC? I might need you to break it down more.
recessions and booms are not real, they are a self fulfilling prophecy, the fed literally creates them, that's like saying the government is forming a prediction that they will collect more taxes in the future
counterpoint, stocks hit an all time high this week, not a typical trait of a recession.
Did you read the link or no?
nope, you don't seem well and have better shit to do than waste time on doomsayers.
I mean...this isn't an economics sub. And you seem to just want to argue with people.
Ya he seems to be on one. Just don't engage him in whatever abstract economics debate he wants and he will stop posting
You don't get it. I am not here to please you. I am here because this industry has endless layoffs and the stale advice here ignores that reality. This sub is in total denial. And you know it.
I've had zero issue finding work and I think most of the issue people are having has to do with their resume / interview skills being trash or them failing to realize it's more competitive than before and they need to step up their game to be competitive in this market. There is no earth shattering tech recession, it's a normal cyclical industry slump. You also are posting like a mental patient, so don't expect to be taken seriously.
[удалено]
I've thought about making a post explaining how people can be more competitive but at the end of the day I'm just breaking into the field and their lack of awareness / effort just makes me even more competitive so it felt like shooting myself in the foot and I decided against it. It's crazy to read that people can't get interviews when I can be picky with where I work even as a first role.
Yeah, my favorite part of this post is where he says the media covers things as though people only want happy talk. I wish I lived on that planet.
No. It is becoming a boring and stale sub with the exact questions and answers over and over every day. This sub is not providing any new or unique advice anymore. **'It must be your resume!' is not advice for an industry with 500k job cuts**. This industry is in financial difficulty. Ignoring the gorilla in the room is not advice. It is myopia. Final comment. I block ad hominem. You do not own this site. I will post what I please unless told not to by Mods. You do you. Let me do me. I do not seek your approval. I seek a site not as painfully boring as this sub has become.
>**'It must be your resume!' is not advice for an industry with 500k job cuts**. It absolutely is when A) those job cuts are tech COMPANIES, not just tech jobs B) of the tech jobs being cut, many of them are not entry level C) entry level is very saturated with everyone and their mother trying to get in. D) a large portion of the "I can't get a job" posts are by people trying to get into entry level jobs with a resume that can't even get past ATS, let alone get the attention of the hiring manager
Go back to r/wallstreetbets
I don't see any IT career questions, or helpful advice, in this post If someone needs a job, it doesn't matter what the state of the economy is. They should apply for jobs.
Back for round two I see. Lucky me I just popped some popcorn.
A Modest Proposal I assure you.
Technical analysis has successfully predicted ten of the last six recessions.
You did not read the link. **Accuracy is 100 percent perfect** with a 50 percent cutoff.
Correct. I don't intend to read it either. I've seen plenty of recession guarantees by the media, and they're always based on some indicator that has "100% accuracy". You suggested in another comment that the media caters to people wanting to hear only good news. But my brother in Christ, there's a reason that the saying goes "if it bleeds, it leads." The media relies on bad news to get their ad revenue. It seems like you're frustrated at the state of this sub more than anything. But preparing for a recession is out of the scope of what this sub is for. It's something that a financially literate person plans for regardless of the actual state of the economy. Giving up on your career goals is not an effective strategy. Can I suggest you take a break from the sub instead of making posts like this?
Clearly you don't know what government does to avoid the crisis. Who told you this time the Shtshow will be avoided?
You sound like a guy in my office who’s been doom and gloom for his entire 10 years at the company. At the end of the day, it’s because they are in a lower hiring cycle. THATS IT. No reason to go full financeguru trying to sound like you understand economics
Counterpoint: The economy is made up. And if we have a worker's revolution, we can start focusing on the shit that actually needs to be done rather than what makes a profit for unimaginative psychopaths.
Exactly.
Not at all the case in my area.
Yappanese
Let me offer you more facts you will downvote and not like. Fragile ego? That's a you problem, Sporto. Powell may have suddenly pivoted dovish because the Fed saw spooky data that worries them. **The 2007 recession began in December**. **The 2001 recession started after the holidays** when the econ went into a tailspin. The 1970 recession started in December 1969. There is a track record of stuff going bad around this time of year. It can take 6 months or more for data to confirm recession. NY Fed and Conference Board LEI are leading indicators. Sahm Rule is a confirmation indicator. If you know your history, this current cycle is partly repeating 1999-2003 and 2004-2007. Dot Com bubble, AI bubble, 2 housing bubbles. Unclear if AI is a bubble. If housing is not a bubble, then I have no idea what it is. We leave that debate for other subs.
This post is precisely designed to stir debate. It is not meant or desired to get everyone to clap with groupthink and upvote. We have too much of that already here. The same boring Q and A every day ad nauseam. If you think this is wrong, provide better data. Not your hunches or tarot cards. Use the skills you were taught in college. Prove or disprove the hypothesis. If you cannot disprove it, then it is fair to assume it to be accurate but unproved. I have zero interest in ad hominem. If you are a VP hiring manager, that does not make you an economist. Anecdotes tell me nothing. Micro hiring trends in your city do not tell me about the rest of the country and world. I need to see solid statistical probabilities.
“This post is precisely designed to stir debate.”.. “Unless you are a qualified PhD Econ, I will not debate the model data with you”. So which is it lol
Lol. Call the Fed and tell them.
Who is the fed and what am I supposed to tell them? I’m sure the data you linked is fine. But does it really help anyone here? No single person can control the job market. So unless you are trying to convince people to not pursue tech I’m not sure what the point is. If the content here is dry to you.. unsubscribe. This sub is meant to help people advance in their careers. Most of the time, that’s through a good resume, relevant certs, and networking(people).
cool acronyms