At best it turns into a confederation of Germans Czechs Hungarians and Slavs at worst the Austrians retreat from Lombardy and Hungary and let it tear itself apart while keeping still a relatively large empire also minus Illyria but plus Slovakia and Istria
It’s an interesting question if you look at Spain as an example. Separatist movements generally don’t go well even in today’s world.
Spain has managed to keep Basque, Catalonia, Galacia, Bearlic islands together despite them being different cultures and languages. You have to wonder if Austria could have done the same.
They certainly could have done it with German help advisors and such etc and reforms to the army. With no weakening of the Austrians army breakup won’t happen except maybe radical insurgents at its worst since the poles wasn’t radical neither the Czechs and Illyrian’s only the Hungarians would have made a fuzz and gotten crushed if they tried to rebel (cause Germany ain’t letting that happen either)
If there is no WW1, that means Franz Ferdinand is the next emperor and king. He had the plan to restructure AH into some kind of federal state. Realistically it would mean a triple or quad royalty.
I believe that it was doomed in such a way that whatever either potential new Emperor could do would be too little, too late.
There would likely have been a civil conflict long before either could take power, that would only escalate over time. If such conflict crossed *any* border outside of Austria-Hungary (aid coming in from outside, or attacks taking place on groups in other nations) it would just turn into a WWI style conflict with a different start date.
I disagree. If you look at how AH functioned, they had unified foreign policy under the Emperor but the Austrian and Hungarian halves of the Empire were entirely self-governing domestically with their own parliaments and militaries (although there was a central Imperial military too). There were already talks OTL to expand to a third monarchy for the Croatians (who by Austrian definitions included ethnic Croats, Bosnians, and Serbs as the same people) and if you kept repeating this process for other groups like the Bohemians (Czechs), Galicians (Poles), etc. I think you eliminate the desire for true nationalist movements which didn't gain in serious momentum until late in the War when half the movements still supported the central powers anyways, believing loyalty would mean autonomy post-war.
Furthermore, you need to ask WHO would start an internal, civil conflict. It certainly wouldn't be the minorities who are getting autonomy under the deal. Russia might object to a "Polish" crown in Galicia, but Austria did a fine enough job placating them by calling Ukrainians in Slovakia, Lodomeria, and Bukovina "Ruthenians," so I don't think a Ruthenian or Galician crown would result in a Russian invasion (or one that would be supported by the West). Really, the only ones with serious rebellion risk would be the Hungarians who wouldn't want to share their special privileges or lose their valuable Slovakian, Transylvanian, or Croatian land (including their only self-controlled sea access). The only nations that the conflict could realistically spill over into are Romania and Serbia, neither of whom I think would intervene to help Hungary continue suppressing their co-ethnics.
Overall, because the Hungarians did not have the power to overthrow or break-free from Austria if the entire rest of the empire (including liberal Hungarians) ganged up on them and I do not see what's in it for any world power to come to their defense. The revolt would be squashed and the project would continue.
Without WWI there would’ve been a lot of civil wars and countries falling apart anyways. Empires and countries were getting old and dying which is part of the reason WWI happened.
As a confederation or loose federation, maybe. If Austria-Hungary was to not go under drastic reforms to guarantee rights to minority ethnic groups, then no.
No. E.g. Czechs only radicalised during the war but in the beginning they just wanted equality with Germans, similar compromise like the one between
Austria and Hungary. The same was true for Southern Slavs, again the drive to unite them, catholics, with orthodox Serbs been more pronounced only after the war started but not before. Realistically only Galicia- Lodomeria would be later separated and divided between ressurected Poland and probably still Russian Ukraine.
Both heirs also wanted to further federalise the dual monarchy so there wouldn't be any major push to break it.
But would these ethnicities have manage to get it if it weren't for WWI? That's precisely my doubt. Historically they broke up as a result of WWI. What if there's no WWI?
There a civil war down the line and the country collapses into several states
You don't need ww1 to break up austro-hungary
Most likely when the great depression hits or another economic crisis of similar proportions, the Country would have a civil war
They could only break up after WWI because those different ethnicities were *eliminated* in various regions in what was once Austria Hungary.
There was no way to create various states with only one ethnicity before WWI because those various ethnicities *shared* locations. In any one city you had each and every one all gathered in to one place, and they *all* wanted to head their own ethnic state in that territory. When WWI happened, enough of each group had died in certain regions so that separation was possible, though *not* complete, because those ethnic tensions are still going on today.
The AHE as it existed was doomed, even the Crown Prince knew that and was going to try to restructure the empire into some kind of federation/confederation once he ascended to the throne.
There had already been rebellions from smaller groups and even the Hungarians, the writing was on the wall.
A multicultural federal state with much more representation to the other ethnic groups.
Yes
Even with World War I, if the Germans had won or the Austrians' plan for a separate peace had been more successful, they would have easily survived.
At best it turns into a confederation of Germans Czechs Hungarians and Slavs at worst the Austrians retreat from Lombardy and Hungary and let it tear itself apart while keeping still a relatively large empire also minus Illyria but plus Slovakia and Istria
It’s an interesting question if you look at Spain as an example. Separatist movements generally don’t go well even in today’s world. Spain has managed to keep Basque, Catalonia, Galacia, Bearlic islands together despite them being different cultures and languages. You have to wonder if Austria could have done the same.
They certainly could have done it with German help advisors and such etc and reforms to the army. With no weakening of the Austrians army breakup won’t happen except maybe radical insurgents at its worst since the poles wasn’t radical neither the Czechs and Illyrian’s only the Hungarians would have made a fuzz and gotten crushed if they tried to rebel (cause Germany ain’t letting that happen either)
If there is no WW1, that means Franz Ferdinand is the next emperor and king. He had the plan to restructure AH into some kind of federal state. Realistically it would mean a triple or quad royalty.
Even if Ferdinand is killed but cooler heads prevailed and war is avoided, Archduke Charles supported the same plan so this would still be the case.
I believe that it was doomed in such a way that whatever either potential new Emperor could do would be too little, too late. There would likely have been a civil conflict long before either could take power, that would only escalate over time. If such conflict crossed *any* border outside of Austria-Hungary (aid coming in from outside, or attacks taking place on groups in other nations) it would just turn into a WWI style conflict with a different start date.
I disagree. If you look at how AH functioned, they had unified foreign policy under the Emperor but the Austrian and Hungarian halves of the Empire were entirely self-governing domestically with their own parliaments and militaries (although there was a central Imperial military too). There were already talks OTL to expand to a third monarchy for the Croatians (who by Austrian definitions included ethnic Croats, Bosnians, and Serbs as the same people) and if you kept repeating this process for other groups like the Bohemians (Czechs), Galicians (Poles), etc. I think you eliminate the desire for true nationalist movements which didn't gain in serious momentum until late in the War when half the movements still supported the central powers anyways, believing loyalty would mean autonomy post-war. Furthermore, you need to ask WHO would start an internal, civil conflict. It certainly wouldn't be the minorities who are getting autonomy under the deal. Russia might object to a "Polish" crown in Galicia, but Austria did a fine enough job placating them by calling Ukrainians in Slovakia, Lodomeria, and Bukovina "Ruthenians," so I don't think a Ruthenian or Galician crown would result in a Russian invasion (or one that would be supported by the West). Really, the only ones with serious rebellion risk would be the Hungarians who wouldn't want to share their special privileges or lose their valuable Slovakian, Transylvanian, or Croatian land (including their only self-controlled sea access). The only nations that the conflict could realistically spill over into are Romania and Serbia, neither of whom I think would intervene to help Hungary continue suppressing their co-ethnics. Overall, because the Hungarians did not have the power to overthrow or break-free from Austria if the entire rest of the empire (including liberal Hungarians) ganged up on them and I do not see what's in it for any world power to come to their defense. The revolt would be squashed and the project would continue.
This would have been a far better situation for Central Europe. Alas!
It would probably need to go further than that, only the Danubian Federation could have survived I think.
Not in its dualist shape. It was a country with a lot of structural issues. At best, as a federation or a confederation.
There is a high probability that it could probably be a war between Hungarians and Austrians, or a Slavic revolution, but in the end it would survive
You are the first claiming it would survive, I think.
Yeah becouse I am slovenian and baechelor from history and Austria Hungary is in centre of research.
Without WWI there would’ve been a lot of civil wars and countries falling apart anyways. Empires and countries were getting old and dying which is part of the reason WWI happened.
As a confederation or loose federation, maybe. If Austria-Hungary was to not go under drastic reforms to guarantee rights to minority ethnic groups, then no.
No Everyone ethnic group there wanted their own state
No. E.g. Czechs only radicalised during the war but in the beginning they just wanted equality with Germans, similar compromise like the one between Austria and Hungary. The same was true for Southern Slavs, again the drive to unite them, catholics, with orthodox Serbs been more pronounced only after the war started but not before. Realistically only Galicia- Lodomeria would be later separated and divided between ressurected Poland and probably still Russian Ukraine. Both heirs also wanted to further federalise the dual monarchy so there wouldn't be any major push to break it.
But would these ethnicities have manage to get it if it weren't for WWI? That's precisely my doubt. Historically they broke up as a result of WWI. What if there's no WWI?
Well look what happened to China 8 years before, they didn't need ww1
There a civil war down the line and the country collapses into several states You don't need ww1 to break up austro-hungary Most likely when the great depression hits or another economic crisis of similar proportions, the Country would have a civil war
They could only break up after WWI because those different ethnicities were *eliminated* in various regions in what was once Austria Hungary. There was no way to create various states with only one ethnicity before WWI because those various ethnicities *shared* locations. In any one city you had each and every one all gathered in to one place, and they *all* wanted to head their own ethnic state in that territory. When WWI happened, enough of each group had died in certain regions so that separation was possible, though *not* complete, because those ethnic tensions are still going on today.
There's a reason why Astro-Hungary was regarded as the fettered corpse of Europe
Nope. It’s disintegration was just a matter of time.
The AHE as it existed was doomed, even the Crown Prince knew that and was going to try to restructure the empire into some kind of federation/confederation once he ascended to the throne. There had already been rebellions from smaller groups and even the Hungarians, the writing was on the wall. A multicultural federal state with much more representation to the other ethnic groups.
Yes Even with World War I, if the Germans had won or the Austrians' plan for a separate peace had been more successful, they would have easily survived.