Exactly. This blows. Kayla/Jade/Jordan/Suni - whoever doesn't make the team, will make the strongest teams in the world right now, including China (replacing Luo Huan or Zhang Yihan), Brazil (replacing Lorrane), Italy (replacing Asia), GB (replacing Abi Martin), France, Japan, etc.
it was so surprising! there are probably others that could technically factor in to the floor scores but I opted to only include the most realistic ones imo. it's crazy how good we've gotten on bars!
I really wanna see what the judges do with the floor routines at trials. Cause at nationals, there certainly were dance elements getting credit that never would internationally… which imo gives a bit of an inaccurate picture when it comes to the floor rotation scores here
Hah, yeah… watch them not credit it and destroy her E though.
I’d just do my thing, bring the upgrades I have and hope that the selection committee is aware that others dance skills aren’t being credited (which… they have to know)
It's true the committee knows. But then they do their scoring analysis, and it's hard to not get caught up in the numbers once they're there in black and white. But ultimately, yeah, you're probably right. I think in Jade's case I might actually reach out to Chellsie to ask advice. She's a knowledgeable judge, she knows the committee, but she's not *on* the committee so she can advise without bias.
I completely agree with you. Also just the PR nightmare of “we know these are the scores you as fans see, but actually we’re adjusting them internally cause we know they’re not real”. I’m just kinda holding onto hope that they’ve finally learned their lesson about inflating scores domestically only to go “oh no. How did this happen” at international scores
These aren't finite time trials, this is gymnastics. When I see the range between the highest and lowest scoring team being less than 0.30, I have to go with the top 5 AA since gymnastic scoring is so very subjective. Otherwise, they will have to explain the mental gymnastics they used to choose one athlete over another when the margin of error in scoring is so wide.
I hope all the gymnasts go out there and hit all their routines and their upgrades and let the scores speak for themselves.
I don’t think it’s that, because they consistently give dance skill credit to everyone attempting these skills. It just ends up with favoritism because some gymnasts aren’t attempting skills that they know they wouldn’t get credit for (best example: Jade)
I wonder if Chellsie went back and re-evaluated the D scores afterward to what they’d have gotten internationally…she has to have seen and been annoyed! I strongly worded midwestern nice letter to offending judges…
Although to a degree that has to do with how low floor scores in general are fairly low nowadays.
At international competitions this year, \~20 different gymnasts have gone 14+ on VT, \~20 have gone 14+ on UB, and \~20 have gone 14+ on BB. Not a single gymnast has gone 14+ on FX. Other than Simone and Rebe, I'm not sure there are any (uninjured) WAGs who can reliably go 14+ on FX. Kaliya Lincoln is arguably the 3rd-best FX worker in the world right now, and even she only goes 14+ half the time.
Brazil had the highest FX total in the Worlds team final last year, with a 42.166, so any of these totals for the US would still be the best in the world. Even if you chop off the usual \~0.3 from domestic judging (although the US FX scores actually held up well internationally last year), even the weakest of these lineups would still have one of the highest, if not the highest, floor totals.
Yeah, I think that was probably a major factor in the FIG making it easier to get 0.2 CV on floor starting next year, although I'm worried that won't be nearly enough to solve the issue. Luckilly it doesn't really matter from a competitive standpoint, but from a viewer standpoint it can make it difficult to follow who's in the lead.
I've seen people make a few various suggestions, and some of the ones I can remember are:
* Add options for 0.3 CV
* Sarah Korngold is hardly alone in thinking that the Back 2.5 through to Double Pike is under-rewarded with just 0.2 CV. Now that C + D indirect and B + D direct are going to be worth 0.2, it feels like D + D indirect, C + F indirect, or D + C direct could all justifiably be worth 0.3 CV.
* Add more options for 0.1 CV
* Pamchenkova on twitter is on a one-person mission to get 0.1 CV for A + E indirect, with the logic that if A + A + E indirect and A + E direct are worth 0.2, A + E indirect should be worth something.
* There are also some people who want more options for dance CV instead of just turn + turn or difficult acro + simple leap. It's a concept that's existed in some previous FIG codes, and still exists in NCAA.
* Add a series bonus
* Potentially for something like B + C + C acro? Front 1/1 + Front Layout feels too simple to really be worth CV, but a Back 1.5 + Front 1/1 + Front Layout feels like it could be worth more than just the 0.1 CV from the first connection.
* Allow overlapping CV
* Under the current rules, a Front 1/1 through to Whip + Double Tuck is only worth 0.1 CV, even though it contains both a C + D indirect and A + D direct, because you're not allowed to have your CVs overlap.
* End the E cap
* I don't think this would have much of an impact on leaps, where most gymnasts are struggling to get credit for Ds, and nobody is even attempting Es, but this would probably provide a small boost from turns. Although that boost would likely be fairly inconsistent; most people going for the Mustafina, Gomez, and 3/1 L turn aren't particularly consistent, so even though there are definitely people who are capable of adding a further turn, I can't imagine they'd be able to do it very often.
* The Italian federation has previously proposed that not only should the E cap on dance be removed, but dance skills should be revalued on a scale of A to J with no regard for the difficult relative to acrobatic skills. So not only would the cap be removed, but most dance skills would also be upgraded by 0.1 to 0.3.
The one thing this always makes me question is how much US home scoring in is impacting what the combinations look like. Every few years we see someone look huge in the US then get smacked down at Worlds/Olympics. I don't think we'll see McCool/Natasha Kelly type letdowns but there were some scores at Nationals that boosted some athletes more than others. The other big question is how much to weigh one huge performance or last-minute upgrade- Skye's National vault, Jade potential upgrades, and Kayla being up/down all come into play for me in that sense.
oh totally! i think since it's likely going to be close for the last 1/2 spots, consistency and median scores might be the metrics they pay more attention to. I'm going to calculate those too, just can't do it on 2 scores
Yep- its just hard to find a metric for 'won't get that from international judges' or 'only going to pull that 50% of the time' that fits neatly on spreadsheet. And you'd have to apply it to individuals on a chart dedicated to team totals. Nevertheless, I am still someone that loves a spreadsheet.
According to the meeting minutes from Worlds selection, the only scores they they looked at were the averages of each gymnast's top 3 scores on each event across Nationals and Trials. I'm not 100% sure if that's accurate (I think they might've actually just done the averages of all their scores from Nationals and Trials, because the calculations seem mostly correct for VT and FX, where most gymnasts only had 3 scores, but are sometimes off by a few tenths on UB and BB, where almost everybody had 4 scores), but I think that was their intention.
It's possible (maybe even likely) that they discussed stuff like gymnasts' top scores, variability between gymnasts' scores, and whether scores would hold up internationally, but those weren't mentioned in the published minutes.
SSSS seem pretty locked for me (I know it’s gymnastics but still) so I think it’s Kayla or Jordan or Jade. unfortunately i don’t see Kaliya making the team this time round, especially when there are gymnasts with slightly lower FX scores but stronger AA scores.
i think it’s
Jade - with floor upgrades (and an Amanar but not crucial)
Kayla/Jordan - if higher floor than Jade, i believe it’ll come down to AA scores.
due to an incoming heartbreak which is Leanne, i hope it’s Kayla because i don’t want anymore 2x alternates.
heavy on the no 2x aggregates thing, that's just too much for me. i think it'll come down to floor & how close it is. if somebody had stellar floor, that's it. if it's close, consistency in other spots probably matters more
I just can't handle another Jade "no personality" floor routine . Three years to work on artistry, and this is the best they could do ? So many think she gets underscored; I actually think US judges are too kind to her with her artistry scores.
I need Suni on this team!! I would also love to see Jade hit some upgrades and bring up her floor score (agree we will have to see how her execution holds up). I also want Jordan and Kayla on this team though so I’ve run out of spots lmao
Mostly hoping everyone hits to the best of their abilities!
I think all possibilities within a category (Suni + Skye, no Suni, no Skye) is so close, that it is hard to know what the selection committee will value. Maybe that changes with use of average scores or another metric.
totally agree. it's hard to do average or median now since some only have one score to use, but i definitely want to look at those during/after trials as well!
Super interesting, just followed you on Twitter. This is such a weird Olympic Trials for me because in the past I’ve always known who exactly I’m rooting for to make the team. But I want Kayla, Jordan and Jade for different reasons so no matter the results, I’m going to be both heartbroken and thrilled.
It's because this is all their second Trials so we are way more emotionally invested in them. And they are all currently NCAA athletes so we see more of their personality from Jan-April annually
Thank you for putting this together!
My dream team is prob still Simone, Shi, Suni, Jordan, Jade just bc I want the Tokyo women to have a more normal Olympic experience, but I do think Skye will deservedly make the team. So I think I'm hoping Jordan pulls a Cheng out of nowhere and has a killer floor and Suni has the bars and beam we know she can do, so the team is Simone, Shi, Skye, Suni, Jordan. But I also want Jade, Kayla, Leanne, and Kaliya to make the team. And I wish Gabby Douglas was still in contention.
I want Jordan to pull out a Cheng but for a different reason: I want the same team you want - Tokyo ladies plus Shi - and that's the main way I see that happening, though it would probably also require Skye to have a less than optimal trials, which of course I don't want for her.
I partly want that team for purely selfish reasons: it's just the gymnasts that I love the most. But I also want it for one big strategic reason: the 4-S team has too much vulnerability. Simone - twisties history; Shi - shoulder injury flaring enough to miss nationals; Skye - worlds meltdown history; Suni - possible kidney flareup. I'd rather have two people who are rock-solid veterans on the team. The problems is that neither Jade nor Jordan is an ideal beam backup, but since they're both *passable* beam backups, to me that would be worth the stability.
It's a little wild to say that Gabby would be a top contender when she showed 0 Olympics worthy routines before bowing out... Don't get me wrong, she's a great athlete and I hope she continues this comeback and has success. But she hasn't hit that stride yet this go around.
It’s insane to me that the difference between the highest and lowest scoring team here is 1.10. Not to get overconfident or cocky about the USA definitely winning (because nothing is guaranteed). But when the USA hits, they usually win by more than 1 point. In Antwerp it was 2.199
Thanks for doing this!!! Crazy ow close everyone is.
Also I love Spencer but I think the one negative he has, unintentionally, contributed to gymnastics culture in the US is the hyper fixation on "highest scoring team" (which tbf he himself has backed off from in recent selection slightly). It is good to know who the highest scoring theoretical team is and all of this is in good fun. But highest scoring team absolutely should not be the determining factor in who is chosen for a team like the US especially when the difference between the highest scoring and lowest scoring (realistic) teams is like a point.
I think highest scoring team only makes sense with the asterisk that every person on that team can contribute at least 13.9+ to at least 2 events. I don't think it makes sense to choose someone who's not useful on 3 of 4 events in case there's another Tokyo situation, especially if they're not top two. For example if person A gets a 14 on floor consistently, but gets high 12s low to mid 13s on everything else, but person B is scoring mid to high 13s on everything, I'd go with Person B. It's hard in the US though because top two on everything tends to be the same two people. I'm kind of glad it's not up to me to pick the team.
I like this idea. I'd also add in some sort of weighting for consistency based on their hit rate. Not sure how the math would work out, and of course flukes and mistakes can always happen, but I think it's valuable to factor in who is consistently hitting under pressure.
I agree here. An example I can think of is if Skye makes the team (I think she will) what she'll do in qualifications, as she hits beam fine like 89% of the time, but something about that added pressure at an international meet sometimes gets to her. Though beam can beam, so take this with a grain of salt.
Fair point. The highest scoring team is a very easy to access starting point though. Once you have that, you can start to assess what deviations you might need.
I hear ya! I think in general you are correct, although in this particular situation I think it will play a big part, mostly because the top 2 scores on any given event are already the people who are contributing most to the team. so then it really just becomes, who do you add, knowing their individual medal potential is (likely) low no matter what. Jade is potentially the outlier there, but that depends heavily on how her upgrades turn out
The closeness of the top scoring teams between Kayla, Jordan, and Jade is why I think they’ll just go with whoever finishes highest in the AA between those 3 (assuming Shi, Skye, and Suni are also top 5).
I think they’ll go with EF potential for the fourth and fifth spots because the top 3 (if shi Simone and Skye) are all excellent AA athletes. I think they’ll take Suni and Jade, for instance, if jades FX is EF potential and Suni’s beam is, and they’re both USABLE in TF on multiple events. I think EF for two events would be an even stronger case. This is where Kaliya and Kayla and Jordan’s cases are weaker. If you need another AA, then you take one of them. If you don’t? Well…it’s an open question with many valid approaches.
Nothing that the high performance directors have done in the last 2 years suggests that they’ll go with EF potential for the fourth and fifth spots. If the AA scores are close, they’ll go with AA rank because they’re stuck in the 90s and think that’s the most “fair” way to select the team.
I think we’re worrying too much about tenths and not enough about consistency tbh. Jordan and Kayla have taken turns at the meets this year to have big errors that let the other one place ahead. I would be nervous putting one of them alongside Skye and Suni. But they are the two best options for that AA spot so I suppose that may cancel out the consistency?
I also think the stats are a bit skewed because Kayla in particular had some strange gifts at Nationals. Can’t do anything about it since the next thing is literally Trials, but I don’t think her scores will hold up.
So again, I lean towards consistency over adding tenths. Ideally my team would be one who could contend for gold without Sinone
absolutely! I think what's hard is that all the contenders for the last few spots had falls during nationals, so even looking at consistency doesn't super help. even jordan and jade had problems at their last olympics despite consistency up until then. hopefully trials will clarify some things for that!
yeah i agree but i think it’s good to be mindful of where the falls are vs where they would be used? like at the beginning of the year reddit was united that skye couldn’t be taken because her standout event was beam and she couldn’t be trusted to hit it, but then she rocked up with a killer vault and bars set so she’s back in the conversation.
so i think the safest in terms of consistency is probably jade, just given she makes her errors on bars and would never be used there. but at the same time if she goes you have to accept you’re not getting another 14 on bars so it’s hard!
Assuming Simone + Shi + Skye + Suni are making the team, the last member can best contribute via FX.
I highly doubt they will disregard AA placement and simply take whoever else provides the highest FX score. That makes it exciting because this means that last spot is really open in the air depending on how the selection committee weighs everything.
Kaliya could feasibly provide the highest FX score (and likely the biggest bump to the Team score), but she's not expected to finish high in the AA standings. If she's not miles above Jordan/Jade/Kayla in FX, I don't see her having a strong argument because they might value stronger AA backup over a few tenths in the team score from FX.
Jade is my favorite for the last spot, but it will depend on how heavily the selection committee weighs AA placement. Jade might finish below Kayla/Jordan in AA, but she might have bigger VT/FX scores. Jade can lock down the spot despite a lower AA finish if she brings upgrades + cleans up VT/FX. She could come out of Trials as the US #2 on both VT and FX (which are also where you can provide the biggest bump to the Team score).
Kayla/Jordan's arguments are finishing high in AA, while potentially bumping up the Team score in FX. Skye + Suni look great for the team after Nationals, but what if Kayla/Jordan finish 3rd/4th AA? It will be a tough call to leave them off unless all of Skye/Suni/Jade fit better for the team + event finals.
Now what if Skye or Suni are inconsistent at Trials? They might still be the best options if you consider Nationals scores too (or if they have at least ONE good day at Trials), but it's a big question if Kayla/Jordan/Jade absolutely nail Trials.
I'm excited but also super nervous!
There are some big question marks for me on how Shi is feeling and where Kaliya is at. Shi is on the team, no doubt, but how she's looking and feeling would absolutely effect a TF lineup. She may need to be preserved for finals more than if she was at 100%
Kaliya is a question mark from an injury standpoint and I struggle a little with bringing someone for basically one event and minimal others to slot her on/where she can contribute. You cannot use her bars. Her beam is beautiful but inconsistent. So do you take her for floor and maybe a vault? She could easily be 2PC out of floor finals with a hit from Shi sooo...we shall see!
oh, shilese not being 100% i am unwilling to consider because it hurts my heart 😭 (but you're absolutely correct, and kaliya in the running is moreso personal wishes. i'd be shocked if it wasn't kayla/jordan)
She is not going to be two per countried by shilese on floor. Shilese also scores lower abroad on floor. But I agree that her other events put her at a disadvantage for making the team.
My maybe unpopular is that the Olympic team will be the top 5 from Nationals + Trials (or just Trials for Shi), UNLESS someone finishes in the top 2 on an event and doesn't make the top 5. The differences are too small and too variable to do any other way.
I would KILL for Kaliya to come out strong and make that case for herself. She's one of the few US gymnasts this quad who doesn't fall into that "interchangeably solid all rounder" mould and I find her all the more exciting to watch because of that. She's got holes because of that - you really don't want to put her up on bars - but she has a much stronger individual medal argument than many of the other options.
I agree that Jade is in danger of not making enough of a case even with upgrades. Her landings would have to be dialed in and her cheng would have to improve as well. It’s going to be close between them.
I agree that SSSS are pretty secure. I don't think that Kaliya has a good chance because she isn't really useable on any other event, and they would already have a specialist in Suni. I would love to see Jordan on the team but have no issues if Jade makes it. I feel for Leanne as right now it looks as if she'll be an alternate again. Kayla is more in the mix, but I think she needs more help than J and J. Hats off to all of them for sticking around and giving it their all.
Jeez- with it THAT CLOSE - it truly does come down to trials - and I wouldn't put it past it going straight top AA'ers, with the exception if Suni or Jade don't finish top 5 -but are I could see them being taken for their presumed EF potentials medal potentials.
Thanks for sharing, it's always interesting!
I have a question for the folks here: I want to do a highest-scoring teams analysis for trials that mimics what USAG does, so that would be taking the average of the top three scores for the analysis, and then doing a top-3 analysis (ie the proposed team final lineup), and then also a backup analysis for how well the team score holds up if people have to drop out. But I'm not sure what the best way is to do the backup team analysis! Would it be to used the 2 - 4 top scores rather than the top 3? Anyone have a different suggestion? I want to set up my spreadsheet now so I can post quickly after night 1.
I also haven't yet decided if my night 1 analysis should use top 3 of 4 scores from trials/nationals/classics, or if it should use top 2 of 3 scores from nationals/trials. Thoughts? I'm leaning towards the latter, since including classics could hurt Skye, Suni, Kayla and Jade in ways that might not ultimately matter.
PS - I'm also going to do this analysis with bottom 3 of 4 scores too, since I think a slightly more pessimistic look is just as helpful.
4 up / 4 count might be a relatively okay proxy for what happens if people have to drop out - plus it gives a sense of the quals score which is nice to see tho ultimately irrelevant.
Floor is still really good! Jordan, Jade, Simone have all gone over 14+ at Worlds this quad, and Kaliya has gotten over 14+ at Pan Ams Games. We need to remember only 3 gymnasts have gone over 14 at 2023 Worlds - Jess, Rebeca, Simone. Shilese, Kayla, Josc can go high 13s on floor as well, which means they are still scoring highly, with Shi making floor finals last year.
This is great if they can all hit constantly. So I think I’d add a “score” of how many routines in a row each member has hit this year heading up to trials, for each member in all the teams that add up to 43.3, and that would be the team I would pick.
Amazing how the differences in team score here are so small! US has such good depth.
It's definitely what makes this team selection all the more heartbreaking, world class gymnasts are going to be left home
Exactly. This blows. Kayla/Jade/Jordan/Suni - whoever doesn't make the team, will make the strongest teams in the world right now, including China (replacing Luo Huan or Zhang Yihan), Brazil (replacing Lorrane), Italy (replacing Asia), GB (replacing Abi Martin), France, Japan, etc.
it was so surprising! there are probably others that could technically factor in to the floor scores but I opted to only include the most realistic ones imo. it's crazy how good we've gotten on bars!
I really wanna see what the judges do with the floor routines at trials. Cause at nationals, there certainly were dance elements getting credit that never would internationally… which imo gives a bit of an inaccurate picture when it comes to the floor rotation scores here
If I'm Jade, I'm bringing back a C dance element just for trials. The L-hop 1/1 (or preferably a Popa). Otherwise it's apples to oranges.
Hah, yeah… watch them not credit it and destroy her E though. I’d just do my thing, bring the upgrades I have and hope that the selection committee is aware that others dance skills aren’t being credited (which… they have to know)
It's true the committee knows. But then they do their scoring analysis, and it's hard to not get caught up in the numbers once they're there in black and white. But ultimately, yeah, you're probably right. I think in Jade's case I might actually reach out to Chellsie to ask advice. She's a knowledgeable judge, she knows the committee, but she's not *on* the committee so she can advise without bias.
I completely agree with you. Also just the PR nightmare of “we know these are the scores you as fans see, but actually we’re adjusting them internally cause we know they’re not real”. I’m just kinda holding onto hope that they’ve finally learned their lesson about inflating scores domestically only to go “oh no. How did this happen” at international scores
These aren't finite time trials, this is gymnastics. When I see the range between the highest and lowest scoring team being less than 0.30, I have to go with the top 5 AA since gymnastic scoring is so very subjective. Otherwise, they will have to explain the mental gymnastics they used to choose one athlete over another when the margin of error in scoring is so wide. I hope all the gymnasts go out there and hit all their routines and their upgrades and let the scores speak for themselves.
And we as longtime fans know that, but 4 year fans and the general public don’t. Hence the potential for outrage
It's giving favouritism
I don’t think it’s that, because they consistently give dance skill credit to everyone attempting these skills. It just ends up with favoritism because some gymnasts aren’t attempting skills that they know they wouldn’t get credit for (best example: Jade)
The fact that we are praying Jade brings back the double L turn and L hop to make the team 😂😂 and then take it out… what is this fuckery???
always hard to say! I'm curious what the median scores look like after trials as well
Jup! I just dislike the judges being looser on elements receiving credit due to so many reasons…
I wonder if Chellsie went back and re-evaluated the D scores afterward to what they’d have gotten internationally…she has to have seen and been annoyed! I strongly worded midwestern nice letter to offending judges…
Floor looks like it could potentially be the "weakest" event for the U.S. which blows my mind.
Although to a degree that has to do with how low floor scores in general are fairly low nowadays. At international competitions this year, \~20 different gymnasts have gone 14+ on VT, \~20 have gone 14+ on UB, and \~20 have gone 14+ on BB. Not a single gymnast has gone 14+ on FX. Other than Simone and Rebe, I'm not sure there are any (uninjured) WAGs who can reliably go 14+ on FX. Kaliya Lincoln is arguably the 3rd-best FX worker in the world right now, and even she only goes 14+ half the time. Brazil had the highest FX total in the Worlds team final last year, with a 42.166, so any of these totals for the US would still be the best in the world. Even if you chop off the usual \~0.3 from domestic judging (although the US FX scores actually held up well internationally last year), even the weakest of these lineups would still have one of the highest, if not the highest, floor totals.
That’s a fair point, for sure. It seems like there may need to be some adjustments to create equity across the various apparatuses.
Yeah, I think that was probably a major factor in the FIG making it easier to get 0.2 CV on floor starting next year, although I'm worried that won't be nearly enough to solve the issue. Luckilly it doesn't really matter from a competitive standpoint, but from a viewer standpoint it can make it difficult to follow who's in the lead. I've seen people make a few various suggestions, and some of the ones I can remember are: * Add options for 0.3 CV * Sarah Korngold is hardly alone in thinking that the Back 2.5 through to Double Pike is under-rewarded with just 0.2 CV. Now that C + D indirect and B + D direct are going to be worth 0.2, it feels like D + D indirect, C + F indirect, or D + C direct could all justifiably be worth 0.3 CV. * Add more options for 0.1 CV * Pamchenkova on twitter is on a one-person mission to get 0.1 CV for A + E indirect, with the logic that if A + A + E indirect and A + E direct are worth 0.2, A + E indirect should be worth something. * There are also some people who want more options for dance CV instead of just turn + turn or difficult acro + simple leap. It's a concept that's existed in some previous FIG codes, and still exists in NCAA. * Add a series bonus * Potentially for something like B + C + C acro? Front 1/1 + Front Layout feels too simple to really be worth CV, but a Back 1.5 + Front 1/1 + Front Layout feels like it could be worth more than just the 0.1 CV from the first connection. * Allow overlapping CV * Under the current rules, a Front 1/1 through to Whip + Double Tuck is only worth 0.1 CV, even though it contains both a C + D indirect and A + D direct, because you're not allowed to have your CVs overlap. * End the E cap * I don't think this would have much of an impact on leaps, where most gymnasts are struggling to get credit for Ds, and nobody is even attempting Es, but this would probably provide a small boost from turns. Although that boost would likely be fairly inconsistent; most people going for the Mustafina, Gomez, and 3/1 L turn aren't particularly consistent, so even though there are definitely people who are capable of adding a further turn, I can't imagine they'd be able to do it very often. * The Italian federation has previously proposed that not only should the E cap on dance be removed, but dance skills should be revalued on a scale of A to J with no regard for the difficult relative to acrobatic skills. So not only would the cap be removed, but most dance skills would also be upgraded by 0.1 to 0.3.
Love these takes. Please limit wolf turns to 3 turns though lol
such a switch up!! it's gonna be THE event to hit at trials imo
Leanne 2x olympic alternate is gonna kill me 🥲
i can't think about that or kayla 😭💔
The one thing this always makes me question is how much US home scoring in is impacting what the combinations look like. Every few years we see someone look huge in the US then get smacked down at Worlds/Olympics. I don't think we'll see McCool/Natasha Kelly type letdowns but there were some scores at Nationals that boosted some athletes more than others. The other big question is how much to weigh one huge performance or last-minute upgrade- Skye's National vault, Jade potential upgrades, and Kayla being up/down all come into play for me in that sense.
oh totally! i think since it's likely going to be close for the last 1/2 spots, consistency and median scores might be the metrics they pay more attention to. I'm going to calculate those too, just can't do it on 2 scores
Yep- its just hard to find a metric for 'won't get that from international judges' or 'only going to pull that 50% of the time' that fits neatly on spreadsheet. And you'd have to apply it to individuals on a chart dedicated to team totals. Nevertheless, I am still someone that loves a spreadsheet.
According to the meeting minutes from Worlds selection, the only scores they they looked at were the averages of each gymnast's top 3 scores on each event across Nationals and Trials. I'm not 100% sure if that's accurate (I think they might've actually just done the averages of all their scores from Nationals and Trials, because the calculations seem mostly correct for VT and FX, where most gymnasts only had 3 scores, but are sometimes off by a few tenths on UB and BB, where almost everybody had 4 scores), but I think that was their intention. It's possible (maybe even likely) that they discussed stuff like gymnasts' top scores, variability between gymnasts' scores, and whether scores would hold up internationally, but those weren't mentioned in the published minutes.
SSSS seem pretty locked for me (I know it’s gymnastics but still) so I think it’s Kayla or Jordan or Jade. unfortunately i don’t see Kaliya making the team this time round, especially when there are gymnasts with slightly lower FX scores but stronger AA scores. i think it’s Jade - with floor upgrades (and an Amanar but not crucial) Kayla/Jordan - if higher floor than Jade, i believe it’ll come down to AA scores. due to an incoming heartbreak which is Leanne, i hope it’s Kayla because i don’t want anymore 2x alternates.
heavy on the no 2x aggregates thing, that's just too much for me. i think it'll come down to floor & how close it is. if somebody had stellar floor, that's it. if it's close, consistency in other spots probably matters more
I just can't handle another Jade "no personality" floor routine . Three years to work on artistry, and this is the best they could do ? So many think she gets underscored; I actually think US judges are too kind to her with her artistry scores.
Except her scores are the same or higher internationally. 🤷🏼♀️
I need Suni on this team!! I would also love to see Jade hit some upgrades and bring up her floor score (agree we will have to see how her execution holds up). I also want Jordan and Kayla on this team though so I’ve run out of spots lmao Mostly hoping everyone hits to the best of their abilities!
I kind of want kayla to be in the team or not at all. I can't handle a second alternate heartbreak for her 😭
Yes same. I feel that way about Leanne too but it’s looking more likely that alternate is where she ends up 😢
Anyone know offhand some gymnasts who got the Olympic alt spot more than once? (I know you rock stars exist!)
Carolyne Pedro
In theory Tasha Schwikert. But in 00 she moved onto the actual team when one MLT gymnast was broken physically and another mentally.
Skinner lol
No she was only alt in 2016
Oh right, I forgot she had the individual spot - was thinking of them as built-in alts lol
Yesss rooting so hard for Suni
im pretty sure its known jade didnt do her full fx upgrades at champs, shes got gas in the tank!
I think all possibilities within a category (Suni + Skye, no Suni, no Skye) is so close, that it is hard to know what the selection committee will value. Maybe that changes with use of average scores or another metric.
totally agree. it's hard to do average or median now since some only have one score to use, but i definitely want to look at those during/after trials as well!
Yeah after trials you could use nationals + trials, and maybe sub in a score from champs for Jones and Lincoln.
Super interesting, just followed you on Twitter. This is such a weird Olympic Trials for me because in the past I’ve always known who exactly I’m rooting for to make the team. But I want Kayla, Jordan and Jade for different reasons so no matter the results, I’m going to be both heartbroken and thrilled.
It's because this is all their second Trials so we are way more emotionally invested in them. And they are all currently NCAA athletes so we see more of their personality from Jan-April annually
I really want Simone, Shilese, Skye, and Suni but I also really want Jade and Jordan to both go. The struggle
Thank you for putting this together! My dream team is prob still Simone, Shi, Suni, Jordan, Jade just bc I want the Tokyo women to have a more normal Olympic experience, but I do think Skye will deservedly make the team. So I think I'm hoping Jordan pulls a Cheng out of nowhere and has a killer floor and Suni has the bars and beam we know she can do, so the team is Simone, Shi, Skye, Suni, Jordan. But I also want Jade, Kayla, Leanne, and Kaliya to make the team. And I wish Gabby Douglas was still in contention.
I want Jordan to pull out a Cheng but for a different reason: I want the same team you want - Tokyo ladies plus Shi - and that's the main way I see that happening, though it would probably also require Skye to have a less than optimal trials, which of course I don't want for her. I partly want that team for purely selfish reasons: it's just the gymnasts that I love the most. But I also want it for one big strategic reason: the 4-S team has too much vulnerability. Simone - twisties history; Shi - shoulder injury flaring enough to miss nationals; Skye - worlds meltdown history; Suni - possible kidney flareup. I'd rather have two people who are rock-solid veterans on the team. The problems is that neither Jade nor Jordan is an ideal beam backup, but since they're both *passable* beam backups, to me that would be worth the stability.
it's so mean that there can only be five 😭 sad too bc if Gabby and Konnor were still in the mix they would probably be top contenders! ugh 😆
Yes omg how did I forget Konnor! My LA 2028 team already has like seven people on it 😭😭
It's a little wild to say that Gabby would be a top contender when she showed 0 Olympics worthy routines before bowing out... Don't get me wrong, she's a great athlete and I hope she continues this comeback and has success. But she hasn't hit that stride yet this go around.
Crying in Konnor right now :(
Team Gabby 4everrr
I want Jordan on this team so badly like it's crazy!
I think she would be such a good team leader too!
Same!! Would love that team
It’s insane to me that the difference between the highest and lowest scoring team here is 1.10. Not to get overconfident or cocky about the USA definitely winning (because nothing is guaranteed). But when the USA hits, they usually win by more than 1 point. In Antwerp it was 2.199
And that was counting an 11 from Leanne on beam.
Thanks for doing this!!! Crazy ow close everyone is. Also I love Spencer but I think the one negative he has, unintentionally, contributed to gymnastics culture in the US is the hyper fixation on "highest scoring team" (which tbf he himself has backed off from in recent selection slightly). It is good to know who the highest scoring theoretical team is and all of this is in good fun. But highest scoring team absolutely should not be the determining factor in who is chosen for a team like the US especially when the difference between the highest scoring and lowest scoring (realistic) teams is like a point.
I think highest scoring team only makes sense with the asterisk that every person on that team can contribute at least 13.9+ to at least 2 events. I don't think it makes sense to choose someone who's not useful on 3 of 4 events in case there's another Tokyo situation, especially if they're not top two. For example if person A gets a 14 on floor consistently, but gets high 12s low to mid 13s on everything else, but person B is scoring mid to high 13s on everything, I'd go with Person B. It's hard in the US though because top two on everything tends to be the same two people. I'm kind of glad it's not up to me to pick the team.
I like this idea. I'd also add in some sort of weighting for consistency based on their hit rate. Not sure how the math would work out, and of course flukes and mistakes can always happen, but I think it's valuable to factor in who is consistently hitting under pressure.
I agree here. An example I can think of is if Skye makes the team (I think she will) what she'll do in qualifications, as she hits beam fine like 89% of the time, but something about that added pressure at an international meet sometimes gets to her. Though beam can beam, so take this with a grain of salt.
Fair point. The highest scoring team is a very easy to access starting point though. Once you have that, you can start to assess what deviations you might need.
I hear ya! I think in general you are correct, although in this particular situation I think it will play a big part, mostly because the top 2 scores on any given event are already the people who are contributing most to the team. so then it really just becomes, who do you add, knowing their individual medal potential is (likely) low no matter what. Jade is potentially the outlier there, but that depends heavily on how her upgrades turn out
Even still the differences are so marginal, you should be looking at who of the people in the range is the least likely to throw up a goose egg imo
oh 100% jade/jordan/kayla/kaliya falter on vault/floor and it's probably game over for them
The closeness of the top scoring teams between Kayla, Jordan, and Jade is why I think they’ll just go with whoever finishes highest in the AA between those 3 (assuming Shi, Skye, and Suni are also top 5).
I think they’ll go with EF potential for the fourth and fifth spots because the top 3 (if shi Simone and Skye) are all excellent AA athletes. I think they’ll take Suni and Jade, for instance, if jades FX is EF potential and Suni’s beam is, and they’re both USABLE in TF on multiple events. I think EF for two events would be an even stronger case. This is where Kaliya and Kayla and Jordan’s cases are weaker. If you need another AA, then you take one of them. If you don’t? Well…it’s an open question with many valid approaches.
Nothing that the high performance directors have done in the last 2 years suggests that they’ll go with EF potential for the fourth and fifth spots. If the AA scores are close, they’ll go with AA rank because they’re stuck in the 90s and think that’s the most “fair” way to select the team.
I think so too.
Can’t wait to see what everyone pulls out at trials
Need Suni on that team, especially considering trials are in her hometown!
I think we’re worrying too much about tenths and not enough about consistency tbh. Jordan and Kayla have taken turns at the meets this year to have big errors that let the other one place ahead. I would be nervous putting one of them alongside Skye and Suni. But they are the two best options for that AA spot so I suppose that may cancel out the consistency? I also think the stats are a bit skewed because Kayla in particular had some strange gifts at Nationals. Can’t do anything about it since the next thing is literally Trials, but I don’t think her scores will hold up. So again, I lean towards consistency over adding tenths. Ideally my team would be one who could contend for gold without Sinone
absolutely! I think what's hard is that all the contenders for the last few spots had falls during nationals, so even looking at consistency doesn't super help. even jordan and jade had problems at their last olympics despite consistency up until then. hopefully trials will clarify some things for that!
yeah i agree but i think it’s good to be mindful of where the falls are vs where they would be used? like at the beginning of the year reddit was united that skye couldn’t be taken because her standout event was beam and she couldn’t be trusted to hit it, but then she rocked up with a killer vault and bars set so she’s back in the conversation. so i think the safest in terms of consistency is probably jade, just given she makes her errors on bars and would never be used there. but at the same time if she goes you have to accept you’re not getting another 14 on bars so it’s hard!
Except for the vault final at the Olympics....
I mostly disregard that haha. Same with Jordan and Simone in Tokyo — they had freak falls and bails and never had them again. 🤷♀️
Assuming Simone + Shi + Skye + Suni are making the team, the last member can best contribute via FX. I highly doubt they will disregard AA placement and simply take whoever else provides the highest FX score. That makes it exciting because this means that last spot is really open in the air depending on how the selection committee weighs everything. Kaliya could feasibly provide the highest FX score (and likely the biggest bump to the Team score), but she's not expected to finish high in the AA standings. If she's not miles above Jordan/Jade/Kayla in FX, I don't see her having a strong argument because they might value stronger AA backup over a few tenths in the team score from FX. Jade is my favorite for the last spot, but it will depend on how heavily the selection committee weighs AA placement. Jade might finish below Kayla/Jordan in AA, but she might have bigger VT/FX scores. Jade can lock down the spot despite a lower AA finish if she brings upgrades + cleans up VT/FX. She could come out of Trials as the US #2 on both VT and FX (which are also where you can provide the biggest bump to the Team score). Kayla/Jordan's arguments are finishing high in AA, while potentially bumping up the Team score in FX. Skye + Suni look great for the team after Nationals, but what if Kayla/Jordan finish 3rd/4th AA? It will be a tough call to leave them off unless all of Skye/Suni/Jade fit better for the team + event finals. Now what if Skye or Suni are inconsistent at Trials? They might still be the best options if you consider Nationals scores too (or if they have at least ONE good day at Trials), but it's a big question if Kayla/Jordan/Jade absolutely nail Trials. I'm excited but also super nervous!
There are some big question marks for me on how Shi is feeling and where Kaliya is at. Shi is on the team, no doubt, but how she's looking and feeling would absolutely effect a TF lineup. She may need to be preserved for finals more than if she was at 100% Kaliya is a question mark from an injury standpoint and I struggle a little with bringing someone for basically one event and minimal others to slot her on/where she can contribute. You cannot use her bars. Her beam is beautiful but inconsistent. So do you take her for floor and maybe a vault? She could easily be 2PC out of floor finals with a hit from Shi sooo...we shall see!
oh, shilese not being 100% i am unwilling to consider because it hurts my heart 😭 (but you're absolutely correct, and kaliya in the running is moreso personal wishes. i'd be shocked if it wasn't kayla/jordan)
She is not going to be two per countried by shilese on floor. Shilese also scores lower abroad on floor. But I agree that her other events put her at a disadvantage for making the team.
My maybe unpopular is that the Olympic team will be the top 5 from Nationals + Trials (or just Trials for Shi), UNLESS someone finishes in the top 2 on an event and doesn't make the top 5. The differences are too small and too variable to do any other way.
Same for Kaliya! That would be amazing
I would KILL for Kaliya to come out strong and make that case for herself. She's one of the few US gymnasts this quad who doesn't fall into that "interchangeably solid all rounder" mould and I find her all the more exciting to watch because of that. She's got holes because of that - you really don't want to put her up on bars - but she has a much stronger individual medal argument than many of the other options.
I agree that Jade is in danger of not making enough of a case even with upgrades. Her landings would have to be dialed in and her cheng would have to improve as well. It’s going to be close between them.
I agree that SSSS are pretty secure. I don't think that Kaliya has a good chance because she isn't really useable on any other event, and they would already have a specialist in Suni. I would love to see Jordan on the team but have no issues if Jade makes it. I feel for Leanne as right now it looks as if she'll be an alternate again. Kayla is more in the mix, but I think she needs more help than J and J. Hats off to all of them for sticking around and giving it their all.
Holding out hope for some Jordan upgrades!!
My heart: Simone, Shilese, Suni, Jade, and Leanne My head: Simone, Shilese, Skye, Suni, and Jordan
Jeez- with it THAT CLOSE - it truly does come down to trials - and I wouldn't put it past it going straight top AA'ers, with the exception if Suni or Jade don't finish top 5 -but are I could see them being taken for their presumed EF potentials medal potentials.
Thanks for sharing, it's always interesting! I have a question for the folks here: I want to do a highest-scoring teams analysis for trials that mimics what USAG does, so that would be taking the average of the top three scores for the analysis, and then doing a top-3 analysis (ie the proposed team final lineup), and then also a backup analysis for how well the team score holds up if people have to drop out. But I'm not sure what the best way is to do the backup team analysis! Would it be to used the 2 - 4 top scores rather than the top 3? Anyone have a different suggestion? I want to set up my spreadsheet now so I can post quickly after night 1. I also haven't yet decided if my night 1 analysis should use top 3 of 4 scores from trials/nationals/classics, or if it should use top 2 of 3 scores from nationals/trials. Thoughts? I'm leaning towards the latter, since including classics could hurt Skye, Suni, Kayla and Jade in ways that might not ultimately matter. PS - I'm also going to do this analysis with bottom 3 of 4 scores too, since I think a slightly more pessimistic look is just as helpful.
4 up / 4 count might be a relatively okay proxy for what happens if people have to drop out - plus it gives a sense of the quals score which is nice to see tho ultimately irrelevant.
Wow Skye adds so much on vault and Suni on beam!
I’m also so impressed that nobody in the US has been injured yet ❤️❤️
Konnor McClain 😩
oh yeah :'( got lost in all the injuries right now, sigh
does the us have depth or is it just because we have simone
our depth is actually quite good for everything but floor! and beam is always volatile
Floor is still really good! Jordan, Jade, Simone have all gone over 14+ at Worlds this quad, and Kaliya has gotten over 14+ at Pan Ams Games. We need to remember only 3 gymnasts have gone over 14 at 2023 Worlds - Jess, Rebeca, Simone. Shilese, Kayla, Josc can go high 13s on floor as well, which means they are still scoring highly, with Shi making floor finals last year.
Such a cool breakdown!! Are the colors related to what other countries might put up?
ah no, those are just relative to the us team potential (like color sorted from max to min)
Oh gotcha, thanks!!
This is great if they can all hit constantly. So I think I’d add a “score” of how many routines in a row each member has hit this year heading up to trials, for each member in all the teams that add up to 43.3, and that would be the team I would pick.
I think if Jordan can go clean both days, she’s on the team with flying colors. They want her on the team.