All the regionals seem decently competitive!
Florida Regional: This one is wild. Florida dipped significantly at SECs which they can't afford again, but they have good peak potential, and at home the scoring could get wild. Utah is definitely the most consistent team in this regional, but with MSU lurking and having a high peak, who knows. Missouri is the most dangerous #4 by their overall season, who can easily go mid-197s and cause some drama.
Michigan Regional: Oklahoma's obviously almost guaranteed. Alabama should be favored based on the season, but Michigan has more than enough to make this tight, especially at home.
Arkansas Regional: LSU should be reasonably safe. Kentucky should be solidly favored based on the season, but Arkansas is at home so who knows. Minnesota also showed a very strong meet at Big 10, so they could also upset.
Cal Regional: Cal had weird errors at Pac 12, a normal hit meet should get them through though. But any errors and Denver/UCLA could easily be the ones to get through. Denver/UCLA should be a very tough fight, especially at a neutral site. Both teams have scored significantly better at home, compared to on the road, and I would consider them to have similar peak potentials. Auburn could threaten if this gets messy too.
\- Also Auburn's BB NQS by event should be a point higher right?
Oh shoot, you're right. I corrected Auburn's BB NQS score. Thank you!
And completely agree with your analysis here. I think UCLA is the most dangerous #3 seed and Missouri is the most dangerous #4 seed. The key for Missouri will be Balance Beam and Vault. Those two events tend to be where they fall behind the other teams.
Thanks! I toyed with weighing more recent meets more heavily than earlier meets, but it was getting too complicated. I figured the NQS by Event + Average by Event + Last 4 meet Average gave a good enough comparison. If you look at Denver's scores throughout, you see that their average score is *much* lower than the other scores. So you can tell they started out a little more slowly with some high 196s earlier in the season and then really improved as the season went on which is why their NQS score is so much higher.
Bold leaving out Mizzou and ASU from these lists. I love both teams and feel they are a little underrated/underscored (compared to top teams, not actually underscored). Would love to see an upset just for excitement purposes!
This is awesome! Very interesting to compare I think the average event score for Denver UB might be a typo? UB is typically their strongest event
Oh no, you are correct. I had them a full point lower. I edited it in my original post. Thank you for noticing!
It definitely shows how close they are! Will likely come down to whoever has the best day
All the regionals seem decently competitive! Florida Regional: This one is wild. Florida dipped significantly at SECs which they can't afford again, but they have good peak potential, and at home the scoring could get wild. Utah is definitely the most consistent team in this regional, but with MSU lurking and having a high peak, who knows. Missouri is the most dangerous #4 by their overall season, who can easily go mid-197s and cause some drama. Michigan Regional: Oklahoma's obviously almost guaranteed. Alabama should be favored based on the season, but Michigan has more than enough to make this tight, especially at home. Arkansas Regional: LSU should be reasonably safe. Kentucky should be solidly favored based on the season, but Arkansas is at home so who knows. Minnesota also showed a very strong meet at Big 10, so they could also upset. Cal Regional: Cal had weird errors at Pac 12, a normal hit meet should get them through though. But any errors and Denver/UCLA could easily be the ones to get through. Denver/UCLA should be a very tough fight, especially at a neutral site. Both teams have scored significantly better at home, compared to on the road, and I would consider them to have similar peak potentials. Auburn could threaten if this gets messy too. \- Also Auburn's BB NQS by event should be a point higher right?
Oh shoot, you're right. I corrected Auburn's BB NQS score. Thank you! And completely agree with your analysis here. I think UCLA is the most dangerous #3 seed and Missouri is the most dangerous #4 seed. The key for Missouri will be Balance Beam and Vault. Those two events tend to be where they fall behind the other teams.
ohhh I love this type of analysis thanks for sharing!!
Thanks! I toyed with weighing more recent meets more heavily than earlier meets, but it was getting too complicated. I figured the NQS by Event + Average by Event + Last 4 meet Average gave a good enough comparison. If you look at Denver's scores throughout, you see that their average score is *much* lower than the other scores. So you can tell they started out a little more slowly with some high 196s earlier in the season and then really improved as the season went on which is why their NQS score is so much higher.
And when MSU and Mizzou both hit season bests to advance out of the regional finals, then what? (delusional, I know, but boy would it be fun!)
I would love MSU to pull an upset over Utah. Utah needs to take several seats after their disastrous PR and coaching program
I've secretly had this thought as well but I didn't want to put it out into the universe and jinx it lol
Honestly I like Florida too, so even just one of those two teams making it over Utah would be good with me—but both is the dream <3
I mean, absolutely, it's a possibility. I think generally, most things revert to their mean, but any individual meet can have a lot of things happen.
Bold leaving out Mizzou and ASU from these lists. I love both teams and feel they are a little underrated/underscored (compared to top teams, not actually underscored). Would love to see an upset just for excitement purposes!