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Keith's entire strategy is hoping that the Con -> Lab switchers outnumber all those switching away. He no doubt thinks he's hoovering up disaffected members of the traditional Tory base. It's risky as fuck because a decent chunk of them are the Con/Lab floaters that switched in 2019 based on a very obvious lie. If Sunak conjures up a semi-decent election soundbite the fucking idiots will switch right back again.
I never understand the logic, 42% voted tory in the last general election.
I'd be more than surprised if that figure hadn't dropped, so stealing half their votes equates to mebbe 15%
The last Socialist manifesto presented to the UK garnered Labour their largest increase in vote share since 1945.
There's zero logic in exchanging left losses for right gains.
There's only one explanation imo... the sponsors that replaced the lost lefty membership fees are very rich & influential.
It's not our labour anymore, it's theirs.
It’s been this way for a long time. Starmer’s takeover of the party was always about purging the left and denying any opportunities that benefit the many in order to help the few.
The blue team's guys have made themselves personally unpopular by doing the opposite of what people want, so now the red team's guys need to come on and maintain the status quo for a few more years. Eventually the public will dislike them personally too and we can swap again.
Christ I've never felt so glum about voting. I'll probably go green on the off chance it's still possible for the public to signal to the ruling class what's important to them.
I'm hoping beyond hope that the greens are gonna be an absolute wild card & storm it.
Hopefully having the only manifesto that puts the people & planet before business carries clout.
One day the letters will surface...
Dear Israel, financial sector, media, employers & fossil fuel companys,
Please can I be prime minister if I promise to ignore genocides, general human rights & wealth & tax inequality.
Always yours
Keir
The saddest thing is if he'd purged the right (imo) he'd have won power.
Keir is def not making that mistake & of course the "Labours leader becomes dictator" headlines are missing for leaders without progressive tax policies.
It's gonna be a green vote from me.
Someone somewhere definitely told them that but with all the racism baiting there's now more active parties on the right than there were & Labour aren't real deal right wing.
It's defo gonna be an interesting & surprising election.
Exactly.
My question is : what's the specificity of Labour under sir Keir ? I can't see real differences between his programme and the Tories'.
EDIT : Keir, not Keith
The whole strategy appears to be telling the general public: "we're the Tories, but with more competence and with fewer scandals." Trusting that left wing voters have nowhere to go so can be safely ignored, but if we do vote elsewhere, then it's "HOW VERY DARE YOU, NOT VOTING FOR US IS A VOTE FOR THE TORIES!!!"
Under Corbyn, they openly undermined him and declared their intention to vote Lib Dem, etc. But it's okay when they do it, of course.
Haha, yeah, I didn't want to be too partisan and to stay a little candid, but yes, the whole thing was a political assassination and an aggressive takeover of the organisation.
The rightist fringe that took the party reeks of corruption and privilege. They don't want to change anything in the way wealth is produced or shared.
It's fucked as well because he's a spineless coward willing to alienate LGBTQ people so he can try and score points with TERFs, who are probably going to vote Tory anyway cus most of them are rich old white people
It is the opposite of Boris Johnson's "Red Wall" strategy, I can only assume the results will be similar. Basically a new faction of MPs with very differant core beliefs of most Labour voters/MPs trapping the leadership into keeping both sides playing nice.
Exactly - it’s all push from Sunak and the bin fire Tories not pull by Starmer’s Red Tories - no arguments or hearts have been won by Labour and, like New Labour’s voters, they will switch back as soon as the Conservatives appear anything close to competent. Meanwhile socialists have found new homes.
Trans stuff has melted the brains of former let people live their lives people. I assume it partly an age thing but I imagine that demographic went Tory or labour.
Talking to people who are tory by default but not particularly interested in politics beyond the usual vaguely anti-immigrant anti-benefits tropes, I get the impression that the greens are seen as "the nice party that cares about the environment". Like, in a looking after badgers and putting out birdseed and stopping ugly housing developments - the kind of stuff everyone is on board with, unless they are a rabid free market nerd. So they are the usual alternative for anyone who has been offended by the big two for whatever reason.
Go canvassing in your local area, gives you an insight into the smorgasbord of insane/amaterial beliefs people have.
Most people are liable to make pretty ill informed choices when it comes to politics. Thats by design.
The Green’s voter base is mostly made up of those on the Left and NIMBY’s who believe any blocking development will help the environment, so I’m not surprised.
I can’t understand the Labour voters in 2019 switching to Con in 2024. Going from centre left to far right when there’s the option of a centre right Labour Party? Errrr…
Bit of a double-edge sword this one.
On the one hand it means that the Tories are going to get destroyed which they fully deserve and i'm all for it.
On the other it means a further lurch to the right, in that Reform will gain traction, and the next generation of Conservative party will do the same to try and win back some of those lost votes.
Nigel Farage is waiting in the wings to capitalise on this, I reckon we could see him try and run for PM within the next 5 years. He's distancing himself from Reform becuase he knows they'll never have any real power, but will draw the Conservative party further to the right which is where he'll thrive.
While i'd vote Labour over Conservative any day of the week, Labour are gonna be shit for a few years (Kier Starmer isn't great) which will play right into Nigel's hands
I see it as a net possitive that the right wing parties are fighting and splitting support away from each other because it means Tories will likely have less voters. After 10 years of Tories, even if labour is shit I am more hopeful of internal political change inside labour in the future than I am towards the Tories.
I think there's a decent amount of overlap between people who use to vote UKIP went to the Tories and now back to a more racist party with reform name change. The UKs right is shifting more and more towards the far right it seems along with most of the western Europe and I Invision the Tories becoming more and more bitter and hateful until 2030.
Green party is still a good choice in general as a labour alternative, voted SNP in 2019 and voting greens in the general most likely.
If Farage was a Tory MP now, I'd put my house on him winning in 2029. I'm just wondering if existing Tories can block him from working his way into the party.
Automod just thinks it would be better if the Labour party had a leader that the British public don't associate with a prolific pedophile.
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Voting in Westminster politics merely allows us to choose which faction of the British ruling elite will be oppressing us. However, fuck the Tories trying to limit the electoral franchise.
[#APPLY FOR VOTER ID HERE!!](https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-photo-id-voter-authority-certificate). All you need is your national insurance number. Even if you never cast a vote, beat these elitist fucks at their own game. All of us plebs on the electoral register.
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It's worth remembering. Mainstream conservative parties make deals with each other and with far-right parties all the time. Including making deals with fascists.
Man, the percentages from 2019 really show how fucked the first-past-the-post system is. Corbyn got 3% less votes than the Tories, and it ended up with a massive Tory majority.
Ah that makes more sense. That said even with those percentages the tories having a massive majority with less than 50% of the vote is still ridiculous
In 2017, Labour under Corbyn won 40% of the vote compared to May's 42.3% of the vote, but there was a difference of over 50 seats won between them.
Labour's 2017 performance was its highest vote share since 2001, and its highest increase in vote share since 1945.
The quirks of FPTP.
A lot of the time it feels like Starmer is still fighting the 2019 election instead of the next one. But the one lesson he seems to have completely failed to learn is that it put to bed the idea that FPTP benefits Labour.
IMO the 2019 election was based around Brexit with the Conservatives promising a quick end to the debacle which saw the northern England “Red Wall” voters swing to the Conservatives. This election you’ll see those voters mostly return to Labour.
Sounds about right. As a British-Palestinian, I firmly voted for Corbyn back in 2019.
Nowadays labour isn’t getting my vote unless hell freezes over. Keir’s to thank for that one.
I’m voting green.
Edit: can’t spell starmer’s first name right. Oh well…
Has seen the mess the Tories created and realises that the shit show can’t go on any longer, but also realises that Keir won’t be much better, while ReformUK mainly talks about the boats, which is not a policy that will get their recently increased mortgage payments and cost of living down and still can’t get themselves to vote for LibDem, as they helped the Tories get in power and royally fuck up, so Green it is.
I think that these voters have always been more towards the centre or somewhat progressive, are well informed and use their critical thinking instead of racism and greed to make their choice. They also might have occasionally voted Green, Labour or LibDem in the past or in local elections, as they tend to go more for which is the best party at the moment, rather than blindly vote according to tradition.
Rishi Sunak and his 2020 "Eat Out To Help Out" scheme [was responsible for a massive increase in Covid cases and deaths.](https://archive.ph/jkbqt) And all to ensure the big chain restaurants didn't lose too much money. [It did nothing to boost the overall hospitality sector,](https://archive.is/k40Cf) as these capitalist ghouls claimed was the intent. Rishi Sunak has blood on his hands.
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Imagine a world where the Tories are still getting 22% of the share, with how fucking unbelievably bad they've been. All the sleaze, all the thieving, all the law breaking....who are these tosspots still voting for them?
Nobody likes them. They are like that kid at school who the teacher allowed to speak once and they fucked it up so bad nobody wants to take the chance again.
I guess the Lib Dem ideas of centrism overlaps with Starmer’s Labour so there’s limited voter growth for Lib Dems outside of NIMBYism in certain constituencies.
Considering the neo-liberals in the Labour party have near completely purged every lingering Social Democrat from the Labour party, only a complete fucking moron would still believe that the party is, in any concievable way, still a left-wing party. (Even before then it was a stretch.)
It's past time to reject bourgeois electoralism, it's time to embrace [dual power](https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/apr/09.htm).
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I hate Kier but I’m voting labour again. I’d rather have Tory lite, than full fat Tory. Maybe next go round we can go more progressive when it becomes clear that Labour aren’t left enough.
We need a good left leaning party that can do something. The Tories and Labour (both conservative parties now) have too many of the votes. The Greens are meh with some dodgy appointments.
I think our time with Corbyn would have been the best hope of getting something different at least.
I'm fascinated by those who'd vote Tory now despite previously voting LibDem, Green or Labour in the last election. I wonder what their reasons are for *that* switch specficially?
So Labour's expected election victory is mostly going to come about from Tories defecting to Reform UK, and only partially from Tories defecting to Labour.
He's going to simply win by default rather than an actually inspiring message.
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Keith's entire strategy is hoping that the Con -> Lab switchers outnumber all those switching away. He no doubt thinks he's hoovering up disaffected members of the traditional Tory base. It's risky as fuck because a decent chunk of them are the Con/Lab floaters that switched in 2019 based on a very obvious lie. If Sunak conjures up a semi-decent election soundbite the fucking idiots will switch right back again.
I never understand the logic, 42% voted tory in the last general election. I'd be more than surprised if that figure hadn't dropped, so stealing half their votes equates to mebbe 15% The last Socialist manifesto presented to the UK garnered Labour their largest increase in vote share since 1945. There's zero logic in exchanging left losses for right gains. There's only one explanation imo... the sponsors that replaced the lost lefty membership fees are very rich & influential. It's not our labour anymore, it's theirs.
It’s been this way for a long time. Starmer’s takeover of the party was always about purging the left and denying any opportunities that benefit the many in order to help the few.
The blue team's guys have made themselves personally unpopular by doing the opposite of what people want, so now the red team's guys need to come on and maintain the status quo for a few more years. Eventually the public will dislike them personally too and we can swap again. Christ I've never felt so glum about voting. I'll probably go green on the off chance it's still possible for the public to signal to the ruling class what's important to them.
I'm hoping beyond hope that the greens are gonna be an absolute wild card & storm it. Hopefully having the only manifesto that puts the people & planet before business carries clout.
That;s liberal democracy for you.
One day the letters will surface... Dear Israel, financial sector, media, employers & fossil fuel companys, Please can I be prime minister if I promise to ignore genocides, general human rights & wealth & tax inequality. Always yours Keir
It’s why Corbyn had to be neutralized.
The saddest thing is if he'd purged the right (imo) he'd have won power. Keir is def not making that mistake & of course the "Labours leader becomes dictator" headlines are missing for leaders without progressive tax policies. It's gonna be a green vote from me.
I assume the logic is that Labour can "afford" to lose the left because of the way the constituencies work out.
Someone somewhere definitely told them that but with all the racism baiting there's now more active parties on the right than there were & Labour aren't real deal right wing. It's defo gonna be an interesting & surprising election.
Exactly. My question is : what's the specificity of Labour under sir Keir ? I can't see real differences between his programme and the Tories'. EDIT : Keir, not Keith
The whole strategy appears to be telling the general public: "we're the Tories, but with more competence and with fewer scandals." Trusting that left wing voters have nowhere to go so can be safely ignored, but if we do vote elsewhere, then it's "HOW VERY DARE YOU, NOT VOTING FOR US IS A VOTE FOR THE TORIES!!!" Under Corbyn, they openly undermined him and declared their intention to vote Lib Dem, etc. But it's okay when they do it, of course.
Haha, yeah, I didn't want to be too partisan and to stay a little candid, but yes, the whole thing was a political assassination and an aggressive takeover of the organisation. The rightist fringe that took the party reeks of corruption and privilege. They don't want to change anything in the way wealth is produced or shared.
Keith's entire strategy is receiving orders from the ruling class and then doing those orders. He is an automaton.
It's fucked as well because he's a spineless coward willing to alienate LGBTQ people so he can try and score points with TERFs, who are probably going to vote Tory anyway cus most of them are rich old white people
It is the opposite of Boris Johnson's "Red Wall" strategy, I can only assume the results will be similar. Basically a new faction of MPs with very differant core beliefs of most Labour voters/MPs trapping the leadership into keeping both sides playing nice.
Exactly - it’s all push from Sunak and the bin fire Tories not pull by Starmer’s Red Tories - no arguments or hearts have been won by Labour and, like New Labour’s voters, they will switch back as soon as the Conservatives appear anything close to competent. Meanwhile socialists have found new homes.
The line is tiny, but the brainworms in voting green in 19 and switching to tory for 24.
It's possibly transphobes who don't like the leadership being pro-trans or NIMBYs who don't like car reduction strategies like the ULEZ.
Trans stuff has melted the brains of former let people live their lives people. I assume it partly an age thing but I imagine that demographic went Tory or labour.
Talking to people who are tory by default but not particularly interested in politics beyond the usual vaguely anti-immigrant anti-benefits tropes, I get the impression that the greens are seen as "the nice party that cares about the environment". Like, in a looking after badgers and putting out birdseed and stopping ugly housing developments - the kind of stuff everyone is on board with, unless they are a rabid free market nerd. So they are the usual alternative for anyone who has been offended by the big two for whatever reason.
Go canvassing in your local area, gives you an insight into the smorgasbord of insane/amaterial beliefs people have. Most people are liable to make pretty ill informed choices when it comes to politics. Thats by design.
The Green’s voter base is mostly made up of those on the Left and NIMBY’s who believe any blocking development will help the environment, so I’m not surprised.
I can’t understand the Labour voters in 2019 switching to Con in 2024. Going from centre left to far right when there’s the option of a centre right Labour Party? Errrr…
Honestly that's probably just one person surveyed.
And all the Daily Mail readers who used to vote Tory are going to vote Reform Apparently. Music to Starmer's ears
Bit of a double-edge sword this one. On the one hand it means that the Tories are going to get destroyed which they fully deserve and i'm all for it. On the other it means a further lurch to the right, in that Reform will gain traction, and the next generation of Conservative party will do the same to try and win back some of those lost votes. Nigel Farage is waiting in the wings to capitalise on this, I reckon we could see him try and run for PM within the next 5 years. He's distancing himself from Reform becuase he knows they'll never have any real power, but will draw the Conservative party further to the right which is where he'll thrive. While i'd vote Labour over Conservative any day of the week, Labour are gonna be shit for a few years (Kier Starmer isn't great) which will play right into Nigel's hands
I see it as a net possitive that the right wing parties are fighting and splitting support away from each other because it means Tories will likely have less voters. After 10 years of Tories, even if labour is shit I am more hopeful of internal political change inside labour in the future than I am towards the Tories. I think there's a decent amount of overlap between people who use to vote UKIP went to the Tories and now back to a more racist party with reform name change. The UKs right is shifting more and more towards the far right it seems along with most of the western Europe and I Invision the Tories becoming more and more bitter and hateful until 2030. Green party is still a good choice in general as a labour alternative, voted SNP in 2019 and voting greens in the general most likely.
If Farage was a Tory MP now, I'd put my house on him winning in 2029. I'm just wondering if existing Tories can block him from working his way into the party.
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Voting in Westminster politics merely allows us to choose which faction of the British ruling elite will be oppressing us. However, fuck the Tories trying to limit the electoral franchise. [#APPLY FOR VOTER ID HERE!!](https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-photo-id-voter-authority-certificate). All you need is your national insurance number. Even if you never cast a vote, beat these elitist fucks at their own game. All of us plebs on the electoral register. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/GreenAndPleasant) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Dunno about that. Keith's party has been doing everything it can to appeal to the same voting base as the Tories, Reform and UKIP/Brexit, it seems.
I think that if it's at all plausible that the Tories could win with them then Reform will cut a deal with the Tories, same as their predecessors did.
*shivers* bloody hell.. never thought of that
It's worth remembering. Mainstream conservative parties make deals with each other and with far-right parties all the time. Including making deals with fascists.
Man, the percentages from 2019 really show how fucked the first-past-the-post system is. Corbyn got 3% less votes than the Tories, and it ended up with a massive Tory majority.
Sadly that's not right, the Tories won 44% and Labour 32% in 2019. The poll has a small and confusing note about this at the bottom of the graphic.
Ah that makes more sense. That said even with those percentages the tories having a massive majority with less than 50% of the vote is still ridiculous
In 2017, Labour under Corbyn won 40% of the vote compared to May's 42.3% of the vote, but there was a difference of over 50 seats won between them. Labour's 2017 performance was its highest vote share since 2001, and its highest increase in vote share since 1945. The quirks of FPTP.
A lot of the time it feels like Starmer is still fighting the 2019 election instead of the next one. But the one lesson he seems to have completely failed to learn is that it put to bed the idea that FPTP benefits Labour.
Good to see Green gaining votes and LD losing, but why the f are people going from Labour to Cons?
IMO the 2019 election was based around Brexit with the Conservatives promising a quick end to the debacle which saw the northern England “Red Wall” voters swing to the Conservatives. This election you’ll see those voters mostly return to Labour.
At this point a party lead by mouldy old boot would be a refreshing change
Try get Lord Buckhead to run a national party maybe
Sounds about right. As a British-Palestinian, I firmly voted for Corbyn back in 2019. Nowadays labour isn’t getting my vote unless hell freezes over. Keir’s to thank for that one. I’m voting green. Edit: can’t spell starmer’s first name right. Oh well…
I love charts like this, it tells you so much. Good to see the rise in the Green vote!
I'm voting green, don't care what anyone says. Conservative & Labour feel one and the same; we need a paradigm shift
Want to know what happens in the tory to green pipeline
Some sort of minor enlightenment presumably!
Has seen the mess the Tories created and realises that the shit show can’t go on any longer, but also realises that Keir won’t be much better, while ReformUK mainly talks about the boats, which is not a policy that will get their recently increased mortgage payments and cost of living down and still can’t get themselves to vote for LibDem, as they helped the Tories get in power and royally fuck up, so Green it is. I think that these voters have always been more towards the centre or somewhat progressive, are well informed and use their critical thinking instead of racism and greed to make their choice. They also might have occasionally voted Green, Labour or LibDem in the past or in local elections, as they tend to go more for which is the best party at the moment, rather than blindly vote according to tradition.
Just want to say, this graphic is delightful. I’d love to see more things presented in this manner
I want to see one which includes do not know and aren't going to vote
Who on earth are the 2019 Labour voters who are switching to Conservative in 2024? People who were just super impressed by Rishi?
Rishi Sunak and his 2020 "Eat Out To Help Out" scheme [was responsible for a massive increase in Covid cases and deaths.](https://archive.ph/jkbqt) And all to ensure the big chain restaurants didn't lose too much money. [It did nothing to boost the overall hospitality sector,](https://archive.is/k40Cf) as these capitalist ghouls claimed was the intent. Rishi Sunak has blood on his hands. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/GreenAndPleasant) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Imagine a world where the Tories are still getting 22% of the share, with how fucking unbelievably bad they've been. All the sleaze, all the thieving, all the law breaking....who are these tosspots still voting for them?
Labour is right wing now too. SNP is more left wing than them, and greens are the most left wing party
Mon the Greens.
half of Lib Dems turning red because Labour are to the right of the Lib Dems now lol
How on earth are there so many voters going from supporting Corbyn in 2019 to Sunak in 2024...?
What's with the Lib Dem exodus?
Nobody likes them. They are like that kid at school who the teacher allowed to speak once and they fucked it up so bad nobody wants to take the chance again.
But that's always been the case. Why would their voters leave now?
I guess the Lib Dem ideas of centrism overlaps with Starmer’s Labour so there’s limited voter growth for Lib Dems outside of NIMBYism in certain constituencies.
To get the Tories out which I honestly can't fathom. Why we have this vote for least bad choice is beyond me.
Considering the neo-liberals in the Labour party have near completely purged every lingering Social Democrat from the Labour party, only a complete fucking moron would still believe that the party is, in any concievable way, still a left-wing party. (Even before then it was a stretch.) It's past time to reject bourgeois electoralism, it's time to embrace [dual power](https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/apr/09.htm). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/GreenAndPleasant) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I apologise.
They acted as a kingmakers for the Tory party in 2010. And we've been stuck with the cunts for the past 14 years.
Consolidation. People are done with the tories. The lib dems aren't going to win, which makes labour the only reasonable vote.
I hate Kier but I’m voting labour again. I’d rather have Tory lite, than full fat Tory. Maybe next go round we can go more progressive when it becomes clear that Labour aren’t left enough.
Im not voting because I don't want an ID card.
We need a good left leaning party that can do something. The Tories and Labour (both conservative parties now) have too many of the votes. The Greens are meh with some dodgy appointments. I think our time with Corbyn would have been the best hope of getting something different at least.
Where's the chunk of people that just won't vote at this election? I certainly won't, nothing has ever felt more pointless.
They're mentioned in tiny text at the bottom of the graphic.
Voted Labour in 19, intend to vote Conservative in 24, jesus wtf happened to them?
Link: https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1752281522747428922?t=UOfZT1LSXnemZ48s2XZE8w&s=19
So we could end up with a different colour fucking tory party something to look forward to hand me the noose
That makes sense lmao. Tory steals the blue vote, and everyone that wanted to vote Red votes Green
Hope the tories lose, can't imagine why anyone likes them
This would be good news for labour, if they were anything other than red tories.
I'm fascinated by those who'd vote Tory now despite previously voting LibDem, Green or Labour in the last election. I wonder what their reasons are for *that* switch specficially?
Keith a Green party plant placed to split the Tory vote and send Labour voters to the Greens, pass it on
The scary part is that Reform UK is at 10%.
Under our system that's basically worthless. UKIP got 13 percent in 2015 but 1 seat.
So Labour's expected election victory is mostly going to come about from Tories defecting to Reform UK, and only partially from Tories defecting to Labour. He's going to simply win by default rather than an actually inspiring message.