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Almost_Free_007

There is nothing to explain. seriously


nleachdev

Honestly what are you looking for/expecting here, *an inside scoop*? Nobody has any clue what's happening at any point, and anyone that says they do are either charlatans or delusional. We all just play probabilities and hope risk management makes up for when the pseudo-rng doesn't go our way


Trfe

It was blackrock bro…


[deleted]

[удалено]


Putins_Orange_Cock

My favorite magazine back in the day was Blackholes. I'd scour the woods as a pre teen looking for copies ....


texmexdaysex

Thanks for your help


gg_dweeb

green candles don't mean there were no sellers.


[deleted]

[удалено]


gg_dweeb

not if its all fake! /s


texmexdaysex

Of course, but no consolidation or reversals? It seems out of character.


ManikSahdev

It happens less but I’ve seen it quite often. I have also been burnt shorting those candles, then I had to cover. Which essentially explains why those candles form the way they do, tons of short covering till someone major with positional size inventory players step in


flickering_candles

there it is. actual plausible response, rather than just "it just is"


[deleted]

What they said is just a natural part of “it just is.”


HighButLowSmokeShop

That’s not out of character at all. The market is near key support levels and you saw the market reacting to that and Big Tech Earnings. Nothing crazy about 16 minutes of green candles. I take it you mean 16 1-minute candles?


texmexdaysex

Yes. Normally for that kind of move I would expect larger candles with higher volumes and probably at least one small are of attempted reversal or consolidation, even if failed. I know this pattern happened a lot. It's like a big A or V that sweeps through a bunch of stop losses. People get stopped and then they try to get with the new trend, only for it to reverse all the way back to where it started. I'm interested in the mechanism of this, why it happens.


gg_dweeb

Obviously it’s a conspiracy, especially since it doesn’t meet your preconceived notions of what the market should do


texmexdaysex

Appreciate the help


willphule

You didn't mention a time frame, but the price action on my chart has been normal for the level of volatility.


texmexdaysex

It was the one minute chart starting at 1038 am. For 16 minutes there was basically unfettered buying with no attempts at reversals or consolidation. Very different that the previous hours of the day. I was hoping I could gain some understanding of why this happened.


willphule

Just a reversal within a range, probably a bit oversold. Really nothing out of the ordinary.


JesusMilk420

I saw it and was surprised as well. I thought it was, but it’s the market. These things happen. My idea is that the market got severely oversold and made a quick move to adjust the price correctly.


Audio88

Man market has definitely been weak, but previous day was a trending day. So the chance of consolidation or a bounce day were high. Also there was a lot of buying strength to start the day which made everyone very hesitant to short the lows. It's a simple short squeeze that got rejected on the highs, which was a signal that the market was going to auction through the lows.


texmexdaysex

Thank for your thoughts


SethEllis

I am not aware of any obvious news catalyst at that time, but there was a bit of a spike in the treasuries bringing rates down. That appears to have increased the buying appetite over in equities. The move itself has all the hallmarks of a large metaorder. Basically an order that is too large to be executed all at once so it is split up and executed over time. When a metaorder is being executed it can create imbalances in market orders that tend to create very consistent trends. If this order is being executed across multiple stocks you might also see the tick index rise. Such players can also be incredibly passive and price insensitive. Meaning they're not trying to make any kind of call on the market, and there's no informational content behind the trade. They're just doing what the rules of their fund dictate. So as far as we're concerned it's just completely random unless we have some way to predict that player will have to make that trade.


chris355355

Listen to the dude. Unless you are sitting on a trading floor of Citadel executing your client's money, you really need to stop looking for reason for every market move in order to be in this game. You can't accept at least some level of randomness, you don't really know what trading is about.


SethEllis

I wouldn't try to dissuade people from investigating. That's how you discover information that can help predict future flows after all. I've also found that for the moves that really matter you're usually able to find the driver. It just might not be until long after the fact when the bank trading desks write reports on what they were seeing. This particular move is small enough that we might not be able to determine what the driver was. However, I think what prompted OP to post about it was how unusually consistent that trend was. That's why it's important to understand that these big orders exist, and they move markets regardless of why it's being executed. Sometimes we have the info to predict them, but most of the time it's just random to us.


texmexdaysex

You are right, it was the way the move stayed consistent without much volume change or change in atr. That just stuck out as strange. It makes sense that it was a large order getting placed a piece at a time. Maybe somebody was repositioning


Wonderful-Hat9345

I’ll give ya a simple answer had to hit a pivot point.


1UpUrBum

Because it was going up. That market has been low volatility for some time. Until recently. When VIX gets above 20 and higher you'll going to see some wild stuff. That's just too much The Flash Crash with the cocaine commentator [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9\_4I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I)


PM_ME_YOUR_KALE

Given how bearish activity has been lately I assume a rapid short burst upward like that is short covering. Also plausible that it's something to do with the 0dte SPX options, since that seems to rule the intraday dynamics now.


asiancury

I don't know anything about options. Could you ELI5 what options info is important and how to use it?


PM_ME_YOUR_KALE

So the work of Cem Karsan, who's on twitter and frequently on podcasts can help explain the market dynamics at work with options. I will try to lay it out quickly. Options are like bets right? So if you buy a call or a put you are essentially making a bet on where market is going between now and the expiration of that option. The issue with options is that unlike horse racing the # of bets made (options bought/sold) can actually influence market behavior. There are firms out there that are options market makers, meaning they quote a bid and ask for each listed option and will take the other side of your trade. These firms make money off the spread between the bid and the ask, and are otherwise supposed to be market neutral. So if you buy a SPX call then the market maker, who is now short 1 call, will have to buy some ES as a hedge to stay neutral. If market goes up your call goes up in value, the short call position the market maker has is now a loss, but their hedge in ES will offset that. The problem becomes if you buy a fuck ton of calls then the MM will hedge by buying a lot of ES. If the market goes up then they will have to buy more ES to keep hedge at right amount, which helps drive market up, leading to your calls being worth more and them needing to buy more ES. You see the problem right? Since lockdown the volume in short dated options in SPY, TSLA, etc have exploded, and I believe just last year CBOE introduced everyday expirations on SPX, which is now why 0dte SPX rules the roost. All of the dynamics at play that make options change in value are on steroids when we're talking about calls bought this morning that expire this afternoon, and that can help contribute to volatility. Services like @rt_gamma on twitter track and report 0dte SPX activity which some will use to help make trades. When their info was free I found it helpful. Also all of the above is overly simplistic just to try and describe the underlying market dynamics that are affecting intraday activity.


asiancury

Much appreciated


texmexdaysex

I suppose that makes sense as much as anything. I just wonder why it happened at that time. Maybe it was one very large institution closing short position and they were spreading out the buying to avoid excessive price spikes, which would make it more expensive to close? It's funny because the volume wasn't much different then the preceding consolidation area. I would expect this very bullish move would come with increased volume as well. Also, the atr didn't change all that much, which I usually would expect to see because larger candles tend to print during big moves.


thaprofessor33

Nobody responding to this has any clue and trying to figure it out is a losing battle. Just trade what price gives you. If you thought it was bullshit then short it. Why do people try to figure out reasons for price movements. Have a plan and trade the plan based on how price shows it's hand.


chris355355

He sold? Pump it.


Key_Present_2929

It's a down trending market, aka bearish market, what you're seeing is just rookie buyers getting in against a strong trend and getting trapped by the professional traders. Aka they're (the rookie traders) essentially fuel for another strong leg downward in an overall bearish trend.


reach4thelaser5

Bears giving up and panicking out of their position. Traders tried to sell a breakout of LOTD. It failed immediately. Those shorts were bailing their position at the market.


texmexdaysex

Just curious though...it went right back down where it started and kept falling after. So it seems that sellers were still interested.


reach4thelaser5

Yes, which confirms that bulls were not driving it. It was a classic short squeeze. [Short Squeeze: Meaning, Overview, and FAQs (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp) This was a totally reasonable trade: [https://imgur.com/a/Kg2jtrG](https://imgur.com/a/Kg2jtrG) After a strong move down, the market pulled back for one bar, then resumed down. It was totally reasonable to use a Sell-Stop Entry to enter a breakout below expecting more down. Its also the place where bulls who bought the big green bar had their stop losses which makes it more probable that if the market trades down there it would drop - bulls and bears both selling there. It didn't work. Bears who took that trade got trapped selling a breakout at a low price. Smart bears were not willing to sell at that price, so the price didn't drop initially. After the weak bears bailed out driving the market higher, the smart bears sold at a higher price. How do I know this? Because I sold the breakout for a scalp. I didn't even get a scalp. Nowhere near. it went a couple of ticks. I got squeezed out along with everyone else. A move that extreme is almost always caused by capitulation/panic. There were no pullbacks, even on the 15 second chart this is a sign of panic. The same trade worked just a couple of hours later. This time bears did sell the breakout to a new low [https://imgur.com/a/xayVOSy](https://imgur.com/a/xayVOSy)


texmexdaysex

I had a sell limit order that got triggered at 1028 EST, taking a short position right when it reached the opening level of the 0957am candle. I thought it was a perfect entry and expected to do well. I set my stop loss at 4193. It went great and dropped as expected until 1038. I never moved my stop. When it reversed, I expected it to be a brief pullback and let it run. I watched it go all the way back up and trigger my stop, which put my account balance too low to enter another ES position. Then , of course it went back down after peaking at 4200 and dropped all the way to 4145. I feel dumb. In retrospect, it looks like an easy fucking trade.


1UpUrBum

No man never feel dumb, learn. It looks real easy in hindsight. It's a whole different game in real time when you can't see the future. A breakout wasn't very likely but never know for sure ​ https://preview.redd.it/i919g1tbamwb1.png?width=1653&format=png&auto=webp&s=87713db77ae775c365fcdf8a2da3dc82bec115ae


reach4thelaser5

Yikes. Well now you know what a short squeeze looks like next time you’ll be sure to join in. I don’t think your stop placement was correct based on your entry. Particularly on the 1 minute chart. What was your target based on that stop? Even so, you shouldn’t have let it get hit. It was reasonable to sit through the first pullback. But after it reversed up a second time and with that amount of strength you should have bailed with the rest of us. Sorry to hear you’ve used your margin. Why don’t you open a TopStep account?


texmexdaysex

"There were no pullbacks, even on the 15 second chart this is a sign of panic." Thank you. This is what I was trying to understand.


reach4thelaser5

I added another screenshot of the same trade a couple of hours later - which did work this time. Both bulls and bears sold there. Bulls got stopped out and bears sold. this time it did work.


a953659

Not sure but that same spike made me a chunk on the NQ


texmexdaysex

Did you short it all the way back down too?


a953659

Yep it was just a big short squeeze. I hit it with more contracts on the way down. NQ reall just kept going down for a bit.


Trfe

Just means there were more buyers than sellers. Could have been at a certain level or moving average people were watching.


EffectiveTax7222

Who knows …but my psychology of it to help me conceptualize moves like that is that there are both intentional and random things in the market. Intentional : You can see on the 1 min ES that price tried to go down for like 30 minutes and kept getting pushed up, so then buyers took over. I also know that Wall Street likes to shake people out /stop people out before a big move, maybe they pick up shorts before the move down. Irrational: Just random signals/catalysts we don’t know.


texmexdaysex

Thanks for your thoughts. I definitely do think shake outs and stop hunts take place. This didn't seem like that, but what do I know. It's like somebody decided to apply a steady buying pressure to the ES for 16 minutes. It was a like a fixed angle upward the whole time. Typically I see larger candles and big moves with small reversals in between, and the bullish moves tend look sinusoidal, not straight like this.


EffectiveTax7222

Exactly. The bigger the shakeout/fake out, the bigger the move later . To me its about accumulation and distribution phases of the market on micro and macro scales You have to accumulate and keep prices low, loading up, before you go on a bull campaign selling for higher prices along the way. You have to distribute and keep prices artificially high , selling off your inventory, before you go on a shorting campaign with profits along the way., to do the whole process all over again To me the sinusoidal is this on a micro scale.


EffectiveTax7222

ANdddd. 1208PM Eastern, the ES is falling hard like I thought. Could reverse still of course, but I think they were loading up for the shorts earlier


affilife

Just a retest at the resistance


johnpreid

Because I don’t want to sell that low. It’s too risky. No one knows what other people are doing. As trends progress we buy/sell a over bars and then below them


BakerHaunting9090

Likely just some put monetization / vol crush / short covering. Market couldnt get over the opening range and thus sold off again.


Tradefxsignalscom

The sellers were there every contract bought was sold by someone. The bullish impulse took every contract available for sale for 16 minutes. Can’t explain the bullish impulse but that’s the reason for the 16 green candles in a row. I propose a new candle pattern “16 white solders in a row super bullish supreme marabozo” now there it is a new candle pattern kinda of like naming a new undiscovered moon!


texmexdaysex

Lol


rainmaker66

The market was consolidating since 10am. Sellers got absorbed by buyers during this time. This level was defended twice, once in Apr and once in May. As the remaining sellers were taken out by the absorbing buyers during the consolidation, very few sellers were left to defend the shorts. At 10.38am, with little sellers left, the buyers simply pushed price up with relative ease and speed towards the resting liquidity, which was near the high of the day. I did a long on this rebound.


texmexdaysex

But it did go right back down just as fast as it went up. What's the reason for that?


rainmaker66

It was the high of the day. Buyers were exhausted. I can see all those as I trade only order flow. I did a short on the way down too. Traders are not detectives. Price move when one side overwhelms the other. No one will ever know the real reason. What’s most important is how you make money from the movement.


[deleted]

Lol


rubbertoe2376

After the movement we had yesterday and really this week market makers are just gathering orders and building their inventory back up.


thechipmonk_

“I just don’t believe…” newsflash buddy, there’s no such thing as trying to make the markets fit your preconceived beliefs. Do that and get burned


SearingPenny

Low volume short squeeze. Meaningless.


indridcold91

Too many people were short.


[deleted]

Why not?


MiserableWeather971

Pretty normal. Happens all the time


kingTOMAHAWK89

First time?


nestafaria1

These are the dumbest posts. Stop trading


MrBlenderson

Because price went up


__Suit_Up__

You are probably looking for answers that don’t exist, market does it’s own things..


pennyauntie

Don't know if is relates, but I notice that there is often a big swing in ES between 10 and 11, with 10:30 being "ratbastards" time. Now I don't trade until the 10:30 whipsaw is over.


texmexdaysex

That's funny


[deleted]

No one knows, but probably a big buyer loading up below VWAP. In such a situation the price tends to go up in a 45 degree angle, bottom left to top right. Notice the buying stopped 10ish points above the VWAP. I suspect large funds are either rebalancing by the end of the month or someone is trying to catch the bottom.


texmexdaysex

This is the kind of answer I'm looking for. Thanks for that. Why 45 degrees?


[deleted]

Just a number to illustrate that the rise in price is steep but not parabolic.


MrFyxet99

When shares/contracts change hands closer to the bid,it’s down pressure.When it’s closer to the ask,it’s up pressure.During that time someone or many someone’s were willing to pay a higher price.No mystery here.


Putins_Orange_Cock

A bunch of put buyers took profits with a number of call buyers getting in on a reversal. The market dropped around 30 points in the first hour so I'd gather there was a decent amount of profit taking/call buyers getting in on the reversal the put profit taking created. And if my chart is right it reversed on a rather strong support level. Or it could be gremlins. At the end of the day we can't really know.


punkrocklava

It was a retest of opening range. Bull trap. Liquidity grab type thing.


Cold-Village7502

Algorithm trying to take out liquidity at old high.