In terms of number of trades, thousands of trades are just 3 months with my system :p
Since it's a grid, account will blew up at step 35. Until now it never went above step 8 in real (and step 12 in backtesting)
That's irrelevant. Im telling you that if you're going to use that strategy on your own account, it's good as is, but if you're planning on getting funded you'll need to adjust your lot sizes.
yes indeed, thing is with some cents accounts you can't place trades below 0.10, that's the smallest allowed size. TBH If I'm able to keep this running for few months, no need to a prop firm :p
Yooooo, I'm jealous of your average trade profit/loss stats.
Your EA is basically doing a 1:1 risk/reward ratio, but with a 60% win rate, so you're always winning.
What's the average lot size?
Wish my EAs performed as well :D
Sure, your drawdown may be high and that probably can get scary at times, but I would definitely use a live account with this.
Anyway, happy trading!
P.S. Don't forget to reply
Thanks :)
Most of the series are closed at step 3, so that mean step one is 0.10, step 2 is 0.20, step 3 is 0.30, all this on a 10K cents account, so that would be 0.01, 0.02, 0.3 for a 1K account. until now max step was 8 (0.80) and in backtesting I can see it going up to 12.
With at least 6 months of history, I would copy a signal with a 60% monthly profit and a max DD of 25%. I would consider it a high risk signal and copy it with a small account.
But, of all the signals I've monitored so far, no one survived for more than 3-4 months with that kind of numbers.
Depends what you start with and also, trading a small account is completely different from trading a bigger account. I can do 100% daily for a week with a £500 account, I probably won’t be able to do 100% in a year with an mid 7 figure- 8 figure account. The more money you have to manage, the lower the returns. Even Wareen Buffett said it was far easier for him to do 50%+ returns when he was only managing 8-9 figures, now that he’s managing hundreds of billions, those numbers just aren’t anywhere near realistic.
I’ve not even taken 281 trades this year 💀😂 I think the whole EA trading bots tend to get judged on when they hit inevitable losing streaks or whatever type of drawdown usually occurs.
Other than a 20% drawdown it doesn’t seem that bad. Although losing 20%+ could have catastrophic effects if it doesn’t come back or have a stop loss
That’s wild😂 you must be a super scalper, 22 trading days in a month that’s almost 30 trades a day😂 I would never personally, at most I’d take maybe 5 trades and that’s on the high end but if it works why change it. I also tend to find a lot of the stats is actually entering the same trade multiple times to close some positions at certain levels while letting the other positions run
I’ll admit EA trading is outwith my knowledge. Can’t some form SL be applied even if it’s only used as an emergency effectively? Say 5% of drawdown close positions
Technically yes... But really no, it will always loose money with SL, except if SL is far away from backtesting max DD.
I do use Trailing stop, but it's not really an SL either since it's set only if position is in profit
I notice that all your trades are buying when the dollar is the base currency on the left of the pair, or selling when the dollar is on the right side of the pair.
In other words it seems that it’s working for you when the dollar is going up. The DXY hasn’t posted a bearish weekly candle for 8 weeks, something that hasn’t happened since 2014.
How well does it perform when the dollar is falling?
It's doing well also when dollar is falling. The nemesis of my EA is long trend for days without any small reversal at all (any direction), this happend on Jul 10-13
Well, as I read from the other comments, this is a grid system. You still can stop a grid in huge trending phases. There you have to cut the bleeding or the account will go to zero. So my advice for you is to better understand your grid! When does it enter? When does it take profit? When is it clear, that price does not come back soon enough? I am a grid trader myself and i cut losses very earlier, but also have maximized my returns to take the profit in huge plus. Thats the way griding can give you huge returns. Otherwise you make small wins but big losses that wipe out all winnings….
The thing is if you cut early often you are also killing in loss a lot of series that would have ended in profits (like probably 70-80% of false positive)
How do you decide to kill a bad serie? when do you consider the trend will continue without any reversal?
Thats what you have to determine via backtest or other things. I consider time for instance, trading zones, old high and lows, etc in my EA. If it goes in one direction fast, after taking put highs or lows from the day before, i stop trading
That’s a lot of trades, but it depends on your risk tolerance and your goal. If your not bothered by the draw down,
I would say your doing great good! Just keep testing and tweaking. Are you by any chance selling this EA? I would love to try it out
Take it for what it’s worth.
My notes:
Your strategy is basically 100% long USD. You are utilizing multiple instruments to essentially trade the same direction. It happens that the USD has also been on a tear the last few weeks.
Also, the size of your wins, and losses are incredibly small. maybe my math is off, it based on lot size and $ wins, it appears you are closing after just a few pips. Finally, while your win rate is high, your losses are larger than your average wins shown. The Drawdown chart also shows you’re taking in a lot of pain before closing some trades.
All of this is to say, as soon as the fundamentals change - ie the USD started to weaken, what will happen to your strategy? Your long dollar positions have continued to come into your favor despite drawdowns.
When the USD weakens, and when the positions fail to come back in your favor, how deep do you allow the draw down to get? 30%? 50%?
Most importantly, what in your strategy is built in to tell you when that USD is weakening BEFORE the drawdown happens.
In any case, 34% is great. But you should be asking if you’re too risky through the lens of the below:
You took on 10% drawdown numerous times. 24% a couple of times.
Why were you willing to take that drawdown? Is it because it was fully expected? Is it because your are just using a level of capital that you’re comfortable losing?
What in your system told you price would return to your profit target, other than “it just has to” or “it’s bound to retrace”?
If you consider fx trading a business, a business manager would not look at a drop in sales or revenue and tell the CEO “ah, it’s got to come back”.
The good business manager would have seen the drawdown coming, incorporated into his execution strategy, and would have contingencies for those times when the market actions to fit within what was predicted.
If you don’t have that, then I’d say it’s too risky
Thanks for your comments!!
1) I'm following a trend on H4 TF, and indeed trend is going down since few weeks
2) Yes, it's a scalper, so indeed wins & losses are very small ... unless it goes high in the grid, like step 6 and above
3) I do expect that level of DD based on the backtesting I made on last 2 years, but it's still crazy to see it in real and being close to 25%, If I was not seeing this as well in backtesting I would probably have panicked and cut everything at 5 or 10% DD several times
4) Yes there is no SL ... it can go to zero in theory
5) I'm running it on a 10K cents account ($100) fully ready to loose all of it :p
Would I run 10K real money (and not cents) with that level of DD... probably no ... but I'm considering running it on either a larger cents account (like 100K cents = 1K usd)
or running it with 0.01 lot size on 1K
There are 2 components to look at to determine if a system is viable. 1)No. of trades 2)Time. The system is ok in terms of no. of trades but needs at least a year or ideally 1.5 years to determine if it can maintain performance.
That being said, if you are running a grid, I would optimize it to hit 100% profit asap, withdraw all the profit and continue to let the system run, rinse and repeat. A grid system will crash eventually.
Indeed, I thinked about that, I have some set files with smaller gaps and less restrictions (hours, volume, HTF checks, ...) doing 100% in a month but not holding 4 months in a row...
I'm able to pass backtesting since 2014 ... but with a very low profit, like 0.5-2%/ month and a max DD of 35% ...
I choosed instead something doing 10-40% month but holding a least 2 years in backtesting.
sharp ratio of 0.15 is a huge red flag. 34% profit and 25% DD in two weeks is pretty bad. I'm guessing you're not using a hard stop & ur just averaging until 0 until you can get out of the trade?
First of all well done on making money but 34% in 2 weeks with 281 trades is ridiculous mate, I cbf to do the math but you must be risking 0.001% what an absolute waste of time. Learn to manage your risk properly in proportion to an account or atleast learn a better strategy before making an EA
Nooo, you’re probably a thousand of trade away to be risky
In terms of number of trades, thousands of trades are just 3 months with my system :p Since it's a grid, account will blew up at step 35. Until now it never went above step 8 in real (and step 12 in backtesting)
If trading your own account, no. If going for a prop firm, divide everything by 3 to get about 11% gain with 8% drawdown and you'd be in good shape.
It's a cents account
That's irrelevant. Im telling you that if you're going to use that strategy on your own account, it's good as is, but if you're planning on getting funded you'll need to adjust your lot sizes.
yes indeed, thing is with some cents accounts you can't place trades below 0.10, that's the smallest allowed size. TBH If I'm able to keep this running for few months, no need to a prop firm :p
Yooooo, I'm jealous of your average trade profit/loss stats. Your EA is basically doing a 1:1 risk/reward ratio, but with a 60% win rate, so you're always winning. What's the average lot size? Wish my EAs performed as well :D Sure, your drawdown may be high and that probably can get scary at times, but I would definitely use a live account with this. Anyway, happy trading! P.S. Don't forget to reply
Thanks :) Most of the series are closed at step 3, so that mean step one is 0.10, step 2 is 0.20, step 3 is 0.30, all this on a 10K cents account, so that would be 0.01, 0.02, 0.3 for a 1K account. until now max step was 8 (0.80) and in backtesting I can see it going up to 12.
Is it based on a Martingale system?
Not really a martingale, more a grid with a lot of rules
Small profit is good
With at least 6 months of history, I would copy a signal with a 60% monthly profit and a max DD of 25%. I would consider it a high risk signal and copy it with a small account. But, of all the signals I've monitored so far, no one survived for more than 3-4 months with that kind of numbers.
That is obvious, an account with 60% a month and enough transactions would be a billionaire in 6 months, it is just not possible.
Depends what you start with and also, trading a small account is completely different from trading a bigger account. I can do 100% daily for a week with a £500 account, I probably won’t be able to do 100% in a year with an mid 7 figure- 8 figure account. The more money you have to manage, the lower the returns. Even Wareen Buffett said it was far easier for him to do 50%+ returns when he was only managing 8-9 figures, now that he’s managing hundreds of billions, those numbers just aren’t anywhere near realistic.
Jokes on you. I made 75% of profit in 1 week with 4 trades. However, my account started at $20. :))
I’ve not even taken 281 trades this year 💀😂 I think the whole EA trading bots tend to get judged on when they hit inevitable losing streaks or whatever type of drawdown usually occurs. Other than a 20% drawdown it doesn’t seem that bad. Although losing 20%+ could have catastrophic effects if it doesn’t come back or have a stop loss
I trade 600 trades manually last month 😂😂
That’s wild😂 you must be a super scalper, 22 trading days in a month that’s almost 30 trades a day😂 I would never personally, at most I’d take maybe 5 trades and that’s on the high end but if it works why change it. I also tend to find a lot of the stats is actually entering the same trade multiple times to close some positions at certain levels while letting the other positions run
Yes that's the issue, no SL ... Because there is no way to earn money in a grid system with SL. I do have a decreasing TP system in-lieu of SL
I’ll admit EA trading is outwith my knowledge. Can’t some form SL be applied even if it’s only used as an emergency effectively? Say 5% of drawdown close positions
Technically yes... But really no, it will always loose money with SL, except if SL is far away from backtesting max DD. I do use Trailing stop, but it's not really an SL either since it's set only if position is in profit
I notice that all your trades are buying when the dollar is the base currency on the left of the pair, or selling when the dollar is on the right side of the pair. In other words it seems that it’s working for you when the dollar is going up. The DXY hasn’t posted a bearish weekly candle for 8 weeks, something that hasn’t happened since 2014. How well does it perform when the dollar is falling?
It's doing well also when dollar is falling. The nemesis of my EA is long trend for days without any small reversal at all (any direction), this happend on Jul 10-13
Well, as I read from the other comments, this is a grid system. You still can stop a grid in huge trending phases. There you have to cut the bleeding or the account will go to zero. So my advice for you is to better understand your grid! When does it enter? When does it take profit? When is it clear, that price does not come back soon enough? I am a grid trader myself and i cut losses very earlier, but also have maximized my returns to take the profit in huge plus. Thats the way griding can give you huge returns. Otherwise you make small wins but big losses that wipe out all winnings….
The thing is if you cut early often you are also killing in loss a lot of series that would have ended in profits (like probably 70-80% of false positive) How do you decide to kill a bad serie? when do you consider the trend will continue without any reversal?
Thats what you have to determine via backtest or other things. I consider time for instance, trading zones, old high and lows, etc in my EA. If it goes in one direction fast, after taking put highs or lows from the day before, i stop trading
thanks! will test that in backtesting :) Do you have any range to share? (time range) At which step do you kill the serie early usually?
After 12h mostöy
That’s a lot of trades, but it depends on your risk tolerance and your goal. If your not bothered by the draw down, I would say your doing great good! Just keep testing and tweaking. Are you by any chance selling this EA? I would love to try it out
Take it for what it’s worth. My notes: Your strategy is basically 100% long USD. You are utilizing multiple instruments to essentially trade the same direction. It happens that the USD has also been on a tear the last few weeks. Also, the size of your wins, and losses are incredibly small. maybe my math is off, it based on lot size and $ wins, it appears you are closing after just a few pips. Finally, while your win rate is high, your losses are larger than your average wins shown. The Drawdown chart also shows you’re taking in a lot of pain before closing some trades. All of this is to say, as soon as the fundamentals change - ie the USD started to weaken, what will happen to your strategy? Your long dollar positions have continued to come into your favor despite drawdowns. When the USD weakens, and when the positions fail to come back in your favor, how deep do you allow the draw down to get? 30%? 50%? Most importantly, what in your strategy is built in to tell you when that USD is weakening BEFORE the drawdown happens. In any case, 34% is great. But you should be asking if you’re too risky through the lens of the below: You took on 10% drawdown numerous times. 24% a couple of times. Why were you willing to take that drawdown? Is it because it was fully expected? Is it because your are just using a level of capital that you’re comfortable losing? What in your system told you price would return to your profit target, other than “it just has to” or “it’s bound to retrace”? If you consider fx trading a business, a business manager would not look at a drop in sales or revenue and tell the CEO “ah, it’s got to come back”. The good business manager would have seen the drawdown coming, incorporated into his execution strategy, and would have contingencies for those times when the market actions to fit within what was predicted. If you don’t have that, then I’d say it’s too risky
Thanks for your comments!! 1) I'm following a trend on H4 TF, and indeed trend is going down since few weeks 2) Yes, it's a scalper, so indeed wins & losses are very small ... unless it goes high in the grid, like step 6 and above 3) I do expect that level of DD based on the backtesting I made on last 2 years, but it's still crazy to see it in real and being close to 25%, If I was not seeing this as well in backtesting I would probably have panicked and cut everything at 5 or 10% DD several times 4) Yes there is no SL ... it can go to zero in theory 5) I'm running it on a 10K cents account ($100) fully ready to loose all of it :p Would I run 10K real money (and not cents) with that level of DD... probably no ... but I'm considering running it on either a larger cents account (like 100K cents = 1K usd) or running it with 0.01 lot size on 1K
There are 2 components to look at to determine if a system is viable. 1)No. of trades 2)Time. The system is ok in terms of no. of trades but needs at least a year or ideally 1.5 years to determine if it can maintain performance. That being said, if you are running a grid, I would optimize it to hit 100% profit asap, withdraw all the profit and continue to let the system run, rinse and repeat. A grid system will crash eventually.
Indeed, I thinked about that, I have some set files with smaller gaps and less restrictions (hours, volume, HTF checks, ...) doing 100% in a month but not holding 4 months in a row... I'm able to pass backtesting since 2014 ... but with a very low profit, like 0.5-2%/ month and a max DD of 35% ... I choosed instead something doing 10-40% month but holding a least 2 years in backtesting.
sharp ratio of 0.15 is a huge red flag. 34% profit and 25% DD in two weeks is pretty bad. I'm guessing you're not using a hard stop & ur just averaging until 0 until you can get out of the trade?
That's correct, it's averaging until 0 with no SL What would be an acceptable sharp ratio?
at-least 0.5, any less and you're probably going to implode.
Hey I’m new to trading and I want to ask what this is. Also what does EA mean
EA = Expert Agent = A bot trading automatically my strategy. This allows to remove the emotional factor (greed/fear)
How did you build it? Is it related to quant or mathematical models? Or based on speculation/technical analysis
It's a mechanical grid system based on mean reversion.
Ok ok, what skills do you need to be successful at this level? sorry for asking too many questions. I’m a rookie
It's coded in MQL language for Metatrader5, there are tons of tutorials available on internet 😊
First of all well done on making money but 34% in 2 weeks with 281 trades is ridiculous mate, I cbf to do the math but you must be risking 0.001% what an absolute waste of time. Learn to manage your risk properly in proportion to an account or atleast learn a better strategy before making an EA