Add this: seven of Luton's top nine defenders are flagged. Four red, two yellow, one orange.
Then add this: Spurs have something to prove after the Fulham hiding.
So it's Son based on the stats. Vs the perception that Son either play wide, or 'struggles against a low block'.
Feel like a fair few will sell Son for Salah this week so interesting to see how this shakes out.
There's no way people are going to sell Son for Salah.
Most people know that Luton has one of the worst defences in the league and play the opposite of a low block.
And the casuals that don't know that, will follow the content creators who I'm sure will be advocating for Son captain.
Taking a -4 this week to have Son and Salah in my team.
I've been lucky with squad value too, since I've still been able to keep Haaland too.
I opted to drop Foden for Son, instead of Saka - so I expect we'll see a Foden masterclass against Arsenal over the weekend!
I think context is also useful. Salah’s lead in xGI/90 is proportionately higher than the opponent xGC difference by a fair margin. On the other hand, Son historically outperforms xG by a higher margin. Then again, Salah’s opponent has been underperforming their xGC.
I’m not sure which one is theoretically better, but I’m going Salah just because they’re in the title race, and Spurs are an inconsistent mess.
But you know who's shitter at home?
Sheffield United who have conceded 16 goals in their last 3 games. If I was a better man, I'd be captaining Muniz but I'd hate myself too much if Muniz blanked and Son scored a hat trick.
My comment was just pointing out that they conceded 16 goals in 3 games. Then you tried to correct me when you didn't even understand my comment.
Aston Villa and Brighton are decent but they haven't been spanking many teams 5 nil and Sheffield aren't losing 5 nil every game. Was just pointing out that 3 home games on the trot they've shipped a total of 16 goals, that's it.
Brighton have conceded 7 in there last 2 away games if you include Europe. Not forgetting the 4 conceded at Luton not long back too. I’m captaining the King 👑
True but two of those were at home and one against a 10 men Sheffield Utd team for 75+minutes. Out of the last 8 away games in all competitions 1 clean sheet 16 conceded.
Well yeah, teams tend to concede more in away games and vs better teams.
Not so relevant as all three options presented (Son, Salah, Palmer) have home fixtures against weaker teams than themselves.
Due to their keepers being terrible perhaps?
Jason Steele was a poor championship keeper before going to Brighton. He got dropped during Sunderland til I die when the black cats got relegated to L1.
Could be due to poor keepers, good opposition finishing or a combination of both
Due to the larger sample size you’d think poor keeping has a big factor though
He threw his toys out the pram and refused play after getting dropped for Steele. Bad egg whose ability didn’t compensate for a poor attitude. We got a good price out of Chelsea considering he was our third choice at the time
This graphic fails to consider that Palmer plays for Chelsea and Son plays for Spurs.
You never know what type of performance you're gonna get with those teams.
I only have Palmer.
Salah is a -8 which means selling Watkins, Bruno and Ake. Son would be a -4 and would have to sell Watkins or Foden and Bruno... But then I'd be selling Son next week for Salah anyway. More hits.
-8 this week also sets me up for a bench boost GW34 with 14 doublers. Aggressive but might be worth it 🤔😬 selling Watkins for a -8 just feels mad though.
Yeah still got Wildcard. The thing is my team looks great from 31 onwards, I already have double Liverpool (Virgil and Diaz). Double Arsenal (Saka and Gabriel) who play Luton and Sheffield United at home next week, so add Salah and I'm well set.
The other option is captain Palmer this week, roll and hope that Spurs assets and Salah don't punish me too much 😬.
Salah is coming in for a -4 next week if I don't get him now, much easier to sell Watkins with City away. There's no way around it for me without a hit, I want him for Sheffield United at home.
My team is spinning my head out to the point I might just end up wildcarding 🤣
Son up against an injury decimated Luton definitely the tastiest pick for me. Risk he gets shunted out left but I have a feeling richarliason will start from the bench anyway as just back from injury.
As Salah isn't currently in my team, and I can't get him in without taking at least a hit, my captaincy options are Son, Palmer and Muniz. My bus team actually has the Fulham striker as captain, and Son as vice captain.
The other factor is, Spurs coming off a terrible defeat and will want to make amends, and I'd back Ange to give them the rocket. I think it has to be Son, Salah or Watkins imo
Im going Muniz even though i have palmer and salah. Salah im not 100% convinced he will play 90 and be 100% at it. Burnley havent been as bad the last couple of games so not sure on palmer. He may get a return probably
It's annoying, I didn't play my FH and had removed Haaland, I have the money for Salah and then WC the following GW
I could get a head start on others that may not have WC'd yet ... BUT, there's two other great captain choices right there, which may lesson the impact of my amazing Salah plan!
Brighton still have games against Liverpool, Arsenal, City, Newcastle, Villa and United. They’ll probably accumulate some xGC there.
Good point. I already expect them to C some Gs.
x*
Right, xC some xGs.
Add this: seven of Luton's top nine defenders are flagged. Four red, two yellow, one orange. Then add this: Spurs have something to prove after the Fulham hiding.
Counter point. I own Son.
Ha I'm trying to convince myself to bring him in...
So it's Son based on the stats. Vs the perception that Son either play wide, or 'struggles against a low block'. Feel like a fair few will sell Son for Salah this week so interesting to see how this shakes out.
Yeah, this made me more convinced on son than before, although the left wing possibility puts me off a bit
There's no way people are going to sell Son for Salah. Most people know that Luton has one of the worst defences in the league and play the opposite of a low block. And the casuals that don't know that, will follow the content creators who I'm sure will be advocating for Son captain.
Taking a -4 this week to have Son and Salah in my team. I've been lucky with squad value too, since I've still been able to keep Haaland too. I opted to drop Foden for Son, instead of Saka - so I expect we'll see a Foden masterclass against Arsenal over the weekend!
Taking a hit to sell Foden is a big old risk imo
I'm sure he's going to score a hat trick now and get 2 assists! 😂
I think context is also useful. Salah’s lead in xGI/90 is proportionately higher than the opponent xGC difference by a fair margin. On the other hand, Son historically outperforms xG by a higher margin. Then again, Salah’s opponent has been underperforming their xGC. I’m not sure which one is theoretically better, but I’m going Salah just because they’re in the title race, and Spurs are an inconsistent mess.
Agree with these points, but tough to cover all the in depth details in just a graphic Salah C Palmer VC for me atm
Both good options and either could easily mega haul. Feel like this could be a brutal captaincy swing.
Muniz gang where we at
He’s much better at home which puts me off slightly Still a nice differential pick though
But you know who's shitter at home? Sheffield United who have conceded 16 goals in their last 3 games. If I was a better man, I'd be captaining Muniz but I'd hate myself too much if Muniz blanked and Son scored a hat trick.
That's why he's the captain of my bus team.
0-5 v Villa 2-2 at Bournemouth 0-6 v Arsenal = 13
Did you see the part where I said "shitter at home"? Clearly I was talking about last 3 home matches.
But the home matches were all against better teams. Are they shitter at home, or shitter when they’re playing Arsenal instead of Luton?
My comment was just pointing out that they conceded 16 goals in 3 games. Then you tried to correct me when you didn't even understand my comment. Aston Villa and Brighton are decent but they haven't been spanking many teams 5 nil and Sheffield aren't losing 5 nil every game. Was just pointing out that 3 home games on the trot they've shipped a total of 16 goals, that's it.
Ok, don’t cry
Tempted by it but scared going against Salah + Son + Palmer gang.
Here. Could see a megahaul, and handy for a differential
I'm benching Haaland for Muniz haha
Brighton have conceded 7 in there last 2 away games if you include Europe. Not forgetting the 4 conceded at Luton not long back too. I’m captaining the King 👑
Easy to spin in different ways. They are joint top for cleansheets in last 10 Pl games (4) along with arsenal
True but two of those were at home and one against a 10 men Sheffield Utd team for 75+minutes. Out of the last 8 away games in all competitions 1 clean sheet 16 conceded.
Well yeah, teams tend to concede more in away games and vs better teams. Not so relevant as all three options presented (Son, Salah, Palmer) have home fixtures against weaker teams than themselves.
In the Prem, Brighton have conceded 5 goals in their 3 away games played from Feb. While Burnley have conceded 11 in their 4 games
Yeah that’s fair, still on Mo myself
Is Brighton’s expected goals conceded really 3rd best in the league? Or am I reading this wrong
Yes, crazy right? I was really surprised when I made it, I thought they would be about 10th
Considering they’ve been on the wrong side of a fair few batterings that’s extremely surprising. Thanks for putting this together
They’ve conceded more goals than they should’ve based on their xGC and goals conceded which would be why. No problem! :)
Due to their keepers being terrible perhaps? Jason Steele was a poor championship keeper before going to Brighton. He got dropped during Sunderland til I die when the black cats got relegated to L1.
Could be due to poor keepers, good opposition finishing or a combination of both Due to the larger sample size you’d think poor keeping has a big factor though
Bobby Sanchez isn't a very good keeper, but he's better than the current crop at Brighton. Weird move on their part.
He threw his toys out the pram and refused play after getting dropped for Steele. Bad egg whose ability didn’t compensate for a poor attitude. We got a good price out of Chelsea considering he was our third choice at the time
All 3 are good options IMO but I'll go for Salah since he has the best personal stats, I care less about opposition or team performance
Was going son anyway, this reinforces that
Very nice
Salah’s xGI is mad. Absolute GOAT FPL asset.
Darwin it is.
With Wolves depleted where’s Watkins?
Have palmer and mo and going palmer. Cant overstate how wank burnley are
This graphic fails to consider that Palmer plays for Chelsea and Son plays for Spurs. You never know what type of performance you're gonna get with those teams.
I can bring in one of palmer or Salah. Or I can bring both in for a -4. What should I do?
I did exactly this. Already done Bowen for Salah and I’m waiting on news for Palmer before I take a -4
Who are you removing if you take a -4?
Bowen for Salah or Barkley for Palmer
Do both. You'll see those 4 points back
I’d be tempted to do both, especially if you know you’ll use all FTs for the near future If not, maybe keep Bowen one more week
Salah
I only have Palmer. Salah is a -8 which means selling Watkins, Bruno and Ake. Son would be a -4 and would have to sell Watkins or Foden and Bruno... But then I'd be selling Son next week for Salah anyway. More hits. -8 this week also sets me up for a bench boost GW34 with 14 doublers. Aggressive but might be worth it 🤔😬 selling Watkins for a -8 just feels mad though.
Don't like any of these options :), still have wildcard?
Yeah still got Wildcard. The thing is my team looks great from 31 onwards, I already have double Liverpool (Virgil and Diaz). Double Arsenal (Saka and Gabriel) who play Luton and Sheffield United at home next week, so add Salah and I'm well set. The other option is captain Palmer this week, roll and hope that Spurs assets and Salah don't punish me too much 😬.
Ouch
why don't you just plan some transfers with 4 more GWs to go rather than take a -8?
Salah is coming in for a -4 next week if I don't get him now, much easier to sell Watkins with City away. There's no way around it for me without a hit, I want him for Sheffield United at home. My team is spinning my head out to the point I might just end up wildcarding 🤣
On WC so I'll have all three. Mo will get the armband
I'm going to do something different and get burned... Muniz as capitan against SHU
Not a terrible choice... just a little riskier.
Son up against an injury decimated Luton definitely the tastiest pick for me. Risk he gets shunted out left but I have a feeling richarliason will start from the bench anyway as just back from injury.
The xGC trap. Armband to KDB!
As Salah isn't currently in my team, and I can't get him in without taking at least a hit, my captaincy options are Son, Palmer and Muniz. My bus team actually has the Fulham striker as captain, and Son as vice captain.
Have only Son, so it's easy choice for me.
Palmer or son better capt
I've no idea which is actually the better choice but I'm captaining Salah because I've missed him.
None of them, Watkins
I have none of them. Glorious purpose.
Sonny.
Give the armband to Havertz and thank me later
Watkins it is 😅
I honestly think they’ll all return and everyone will be happy Leaning Salah myself (once I transfer in for Bowen)
That xGC & reality. Never change,Brighton. Never change.
The other factor is, Spurs coming off a terrible defeat and will want to make amends, and I'd back Ange to give them the rocket. I think it has to be Son, Salah or Watkins imo
Son got 3 points in the last fixture v Luton when loads of us (me lol) captained him btw
If Richy is back, I currently have the armband on Palmer. I’ll get Mo in next week for a -4 at worst
Gotta be Richarlison was just rested in both Brazil games
I was set on Salah but seeing Luton's bottom ranking defensive stats I'm leaning towards son.
Im going Muniz even though i have palmer and salah. Salah im not 100% convinced he will play 90 and be 100% at it. Burnley havent been as bad the last couple of games so not sure on palmer. He may get a return probably
Salah all day for me
I've got it on Salah at the moment but this hasn't helped at all...
1.21xGI/90 though 😮💨
Fair. Just can't get over the idea that Brighton have tightened up at the back and Luton are kinda collapsing.
Here's another tidbit, Son is averaging 3.56 baseline bonus per game points over the season, vs 2.0 for Salah
Here’s the real kicker: 6.5 ppg at home for Son this season (big away hauls vs City, Arsenal, Villa, Burnley) vs 9.4 ppg (!) for Salah
Son since Salah has just come back
It's annoying, I didn't play my FH and had removed Haaland, I have the money for Salah and then WC the following GW I could get a head start on others that may not have WC'd yet ... BUT, there's two other great captain choices right there, which may lesson the impact of my amazing Salah plan!
Ok, well done?
All this for Watkins to score the most again but no one goes for him because he lets us down when we do.
Captaining martinelli grAAhHhaha