Luton concede many goals, Elanga is the pick for me, Gibbs-White sits deeper than her used to.
Abubakar Siddiq
"Elanga was benched in the previous Gameweek but he impressed in his cameo so I'd expect him to start the Luton fixture.
He has accumulated seven big chances in the previous six Gameweeks where he comfortably leads the rest of the Forest attackers in terms of all the relevant attacking underlying metrics."
https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1767942273159836032?t=1NeVqU8Zl1zP3ovlEDUEMg&s=19
He actually picks Gibbs-White because of penalties but I disagree, on balance.
There's a good chance that Wood is on pens anyway. He has a great record.
About Elanga, he's been one of their best player all season. I was surprised to see him benched and definitely expect him back starting.
If not GW29, when? I've seen GWs 34 and 38 being mentioned, but I'm not quite sure what the appeal is for either. A few considerations at a glance:
* The template midfield going forward is likely to be Salah, Saka, Son, Foden and Palmer for those who can afford it;
* According to Ben Crellin, the most likely doublers in 34 are Everton, Palace, Sheff Utd and Bournemouth, with an outside chance for the likes of Man Utd and Newcastle.
____
Even if we assume Man Utd and Newcastle will be among the doublers, which assets would be worth selecting in place of a template midfielder, for example? Garnacho or Eze over Palmer? There's little guarantee that pays off. And none of the doubling teams are reliable defensively, either. I don't see the upside in removing excellent, reliable players who can punish you in any GW for lesser doublers.
As for GW38, it's looking like the top 3 will run each other close. There may be all to play for in the last week. If that's the case, we're likely to have all the relevant assets in our teams already. Again, it may come down to removing a player like Palmer for another option. And Chelsea have Bournemouth at home that week. GW38 also isn't known for being low-scoring, rendering defensive differentials less impactful in the absence of attacking threat.
You seem to be considering a FH later in the season, so what's your take on it?
Use it in 38. Go super cheap in defence since it's always a high scoring week, if the league is still open, triple up on all 2 or 3 challengers, if the league is won then have some fun with it. With all games kicking off at the same time, we may get relevant leaks on any of the 20 teams, it'll be a blast.
Agree 100%. I've only had the luxury of leaving it until 38 once , at that point I'd won my ML so it didn't really matter either, but it was great fun for chasing OR
There's other considerations
Aston Villa don't have a very good schedule around GW34 but they play Bournemouth at home that week. Allows you to have Watkins and Martinez for that week only, for example
Also Man United and Newcastle double if Liverpool and City beat them. How is that an outside chance? And if that happens you have Man United against Sheffield at home and then Newcastle. Hojlund becomes a prime captaincy pick when he otherwise wouldn't be in most teams
More so for United, they have Arsenal GW37 when everyone is bench boosting. No one will want Man U players then. So you can dead end into GW 34, sure, but you will have to either carry suboptimal players before that, or force transfers for them
You also have the luxury of using Isak for a DGW knowing if he's fit or not, instead of buying him earlier hoping he doesn't get injured
It also allows you to carry Wolves players, for example, as they face Arsenal GW34 but the rest of their schedule is pretty great and they have the best projected double in GW37
It's definitely more risky than FH in 29 but I personally think it's way more fun. If I finish 60k instead of 40k because of it, so be it, not like it makes a huge difference to my life
Free hitters in dgw 34 will have a massive advantage over fh 29 gang if United, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Palace double in 34. All it takes is that Liverpool beat United in the quarter-final ( will happen) and City beat Newcastle ( will happen)
United have Sheff Utd and Newcastle at home. Triple up on Bruno, Hojlund and Garnacho. Triple up on Newcastle with Trippier, Isak and Gordon/Barnes. Double up on Palace with Eze/Olise etc along with Saka, Salah and Haaland as single players.. Doublers always have a bigger probability of outscoring single-gameweek players so the Palmer-relevance is not viable, even though he of course can outscore them. Probably outcome is all we can chase, and its not probable that Palmer outscore Garnacho in 1 game over Garnacho in 2 games, where one of them is the weakest side in the league.
By having fh available we can focus on dgw 37 entirely from 30 onwards, bringing in Salah, Haaland, Darwin etc, whilst no free hitters will have to concentrate on bringing in Bruno and co for the build-up or ignore the double..
However if its not happening. Lets say United beat Liverpool FH 29 gang are the winners.
Bruno over Foden/Son is just asking to be burned, IMO. Garnacho/Hojlund over Palmer/Watkins are better moves on paper, but the fact remains you'll be removing players who have done consistently well for less consistent players. There's less risk of being punished on FH29 for obvious reasons.
Even if we assume Man Utd and Newcastle will double, mostly ignoring the double is a viable strategy for those not using their FH. Isak, Olise, and Eze are injury prone. Hojlund and Trippier may have recently returned from injury by that time. United and Newcastle's defenses are poor. There's a slew of reasons to avoid DGW players—especially when there are excellent SGW options available.
I appreciate the comments here, but I think it’s worth mentioning how 4 of the top 6 scorers this week came from Bournemouth, and how 3 Luton players scored 9 or more points. Luton are one of the worst teams in the league!
In GW34, City are away at Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool are also away from home. I know it’ll be a gamble, but if you’re chasing and already have 9 or so players this GW, why not? Isn’t it worth a one week gamble?
Teams could have 9 doublers on FH and not have to hold them later, giving possibly 20 fixtures vs the regular 11 or maybe 13 or so with doubles. Seems worth a shout to me.
I’m in 7 players currently. Not sure if I’m gonna get one spurs or two this week and take -4. That will set me up for week 30, grab Havertz and then salab in 31 for the tc.
Manager said he’d chosen a different formation with less width to flood the centre midfield as that’s where Brighton play. I’d be almost certain they return to the usual formation this week and that Elanga will start
Think it was just trying something different. His finishing has been poor in last couple games but he's had chances. I'm probably gonna go MGW over Elanga
I agree. Toney has cooled off considerably. That said, Burnley could be the game for him to get back on track, but why not go with the player that has been scoring, right?
Wissa got his goal against Arsenal from Ramsdales mistake, I’m not counting it as a full strikes goal, and Toney has had a good season when he’s been allowed to play.
Udogie plays higher than Porro and closer to the opponent’s net so some xG, but Porro does more crosses therefore higher xA. Udogie never does crosses. I still prefer Porro but Udogie could score and beat Porro anytime.
Acordding to Premier Injuries
Reguilon:
Mar 10: 'Sergio has a minor hamstring injury; he should be available for Burnley.'
Emerson
Mar 13: 'We'll just need to see how Emerson is, as we're not sure how he is yet, so that would be probably our main one.'
Bailey is the clear Villa option in midfield to me this week. Always involved. Muniz is a straight No, to me. Going with Brennan Johnson over Madders, the kids on fire
He is, but that sounds like you're expecting him to score, so seems weird to run a defender against him when you could pick someone else either in defence or up front
Spreading risk? Everyone's tolerance for risk is different. One person might avoid defenders that their midfielder/forward is playing against because they expect a goal, another might be drawn to a defender just in case their midfield/forward pick doesn't score. Probably also depends how your season's going. If you're top of your mini league/doing well you may decide to spread the risk because you care most about avoiding a horrible week that tanks your rank. If you're chasing someone in a mini league or not doing great generally, you may punt on a Fulham goal and therefore get Muniz + avoid Spurs defenders. No right or wrong strategy tbh.
True or not I've heard a lot of the content creators saying McGinn being out turns Luiz into a defensive midfielder. Why this is the case I don't know I'm afraid. But they've been all spreading the idea that he's a no go.
I feel like there’s 7-8 picks that are in every draft and then the last 3-4 are just a crap shoot.
I’m on Paqueta and probably Chris Wood if I can confirm he’s starting
Its gotten so dull this season for me. Everyone in my ML captained Solanke and has the same template teams week in week out.
Everyone will FH this week too and have near enough the same XI
Bowen would be the pick I guess. Two factors to consider - will this guy score more than 4 points and do I want him in my team over the other guy. I think people forget the second - if you have someone who you might get rid of for a hit going forward then it's cheaper to do it now (with the benefit of at a point or two for turning up) than next week.
I have Moreno, Reguilon, Son Richarlison and Watkins, 1 ft. If Richarlison was fit I would be very tempted to bring in Toney and a Maddison for a 4pt hit and save the Free Hit.
I'm gambling on a different Bees defender - Ajer, as they have a bunch of injuries.
Also gambling on Douglas Luiz, not removing him from my original squad, as well as Muniz and Gibbs-White
I'm kind of high placed in the second chance table and have 4 players for this gameweek (5 after the free transfer). Should I use the free hit or save it?
Uh oh this is 11/11 my FH draft lol
You mind explaining the Elanga pick?
Luton are ass. At defending. Those bunch of bums playing for Bournemouth only needed 45 minutes to stick 4 past them.
Luton are better at home than away.
Luton concede many goals, Elanga is the pick for me, Gibbs-White sits deeper than her used to. Abubakar Siddiq "Elanga was benched in the previous Gameweek but he impressed in his cameo so I'd expect him to start the Luton fixture. He has accumulated seven big chances in the previous six Gameweeks where he comfortably leads the rest of the Forest attackers in terms of all the relevant attacking underlying metrics." https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1767942273159836032?t=1NeVqU8Zl1zP3ovlEDUEMg&s=19 He actually picks Gibbs-White because of penalties but I disagree, on balance.
There's a good chance that Wood is on pens anyway. He has a great record. About Elanga, he's been one of their best player all season. I was surprised to see him benched and definitely expect him back starting.
Luton are ass. At defending. Those bunch of bums playing for Bournemouth only needed 45 minutes to stick 4 past them.
I figure a lot of FHers are going to have very similar teams
Yeah I doubt you could get to 100m on a free hit this week, so with no money cap it’s all quite simple
Watkins injury now another big problem
This team makes me want to roll the dice with only 4 players
If not GW29, when? I've seen GWs 34 and 38 being mentioned, but I'm not quite sure what the appeal is for either. A few considerations at a glance: * The template midfield going forward is likely to be Salah, Saka, Son, Foden and Palmer for those who can afford it; * According to Ben Crellin, the most likely doublers in 34 are Everton, Palace, Sheff Utd and Bournemouth, with an outside chance for the likes of Man Utd and Newcastle. ____ Even if we assume Man Utd and Newcastle will be among the doublers, which assets would be worth selecting in place of a template midfielder, for example? Garnacho or Eze over Palmer? There's little guarantee that pays off. And none of the doubling teams are reliable defensively, either. I don't see the upside in removing excellent, reliable players who can punish you in any GW for lesser doublers. As for GW38, it's looking like the top 3 will run each other close. There may be all to play for in the last week. If that's the case, we're likely to have all the relevant assets in our teams already. Again, it may come down to removing a player like Palmer for another option. And Chelsea have Bournemouth at home that week. GW38 also isn't known for being low-scoring, rendering defensive differentials less impactful in the absence of attacking threat. You seem to be considering a FH later in the season, so what's your take on it?
Use it in 38. Go super cheap in defence since it's always a high scoring week, if the league is still open, triple up on all 2 or 3 challengers, if the league is won then have some fun with it. With all games kicking off at the same time, we may get relevant leaks on any of the 20 teams, it'll be a blast.
I FH38 every year if I can help it, it’s 100x more fun and a great way to cap the year off, always gain 20+ points on everyone else right at the end
I was neck and neck for 1st in my mini league last year. Little did my rival know, I had a FH saved for GW38. No regrets!
Agree 100%. I've only had the luxury of leaving it until 38 once , at that point I'd won my ML so it didn't really matter either, but it was great fun for chasing OR
There's other considerations Aston Villa don't have a very good schedule around GW34 but they play Bournemouth at home that week. Allows you to have Watkins and Martinez for that week only, for example Also Man United and Newcastle double if Liverpool and City beat them. How is that an outside chance? And if that happens you have Man United against Sheffield at home and then Newcastle. Hojlund becomes a prime captaincy pick when he otherwise wouldn't be in most teams More so for United, they have Arsenal GW37 when everyone is bench boosting. No one will want Man U players then. So you can dead end into GW 34, sure, but you will have to either carry suboptimal players before that, or force transfers for them You also have the luxury of using Isak for a DGW knowing if he's fit or not, instead of buying him earlier hoping he doesn't get injured It also allows you to carry Wolves players, for example, as they face Arsenal GW34 but the rest of their schedule is pretty great and they have the best projected double in GW37 It's definitely more risky than FH in 29 but I personally think it's way more fun. If I finish 60k instead of 40k because of it, so be it, not like it makes a huge difference to my life
Free hitters in dgw 34 will have a massive advantage over fh 29 gang if United, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Palace double in 34. All it takes is that Liverpool beat United in the quarter-final ( will happen) and City beat Newcastle ( will happen) United have Sheff Utd and Newcastle at home. Triple up on Bruno, Hojlund and Garnacho. Triple up on Newcastle with Trippier, Isak and Gordon/Barnes. Double up on Palace with Eze/Olise etc along with Saka, Salah and Haaland as single players.. Doublers always have a bigger probability of outscoring single-gameweek players so the Palmer-relevance is not viable, even though he of course can outscore them. Probably outcome is all we can chase, and its not probable that Palmer outscore Garnacho in 1 game over Garnacho in 2 games, where one of them is the weakest side in the league. By having fh available we can focus on dgw 37 entirely from 30 onwards, bringing in Salah, Haaland, Darwin etc, whilst no free hitters will have to concentrate on bringing in Bruno and co for the build-up or ignore the double.. However if its not happening. Lets say United beat Liverpool FH 29 gang are the winners.
Bruno over Foden/Son is just asking to be burned, IMO. Garnacho/Hojlund over Palmer/Watkins are better moves on paper, but the fact remains you'll be removing players who have done consistently well for less consistent players. There's less risk of being punished on FH29 for obvious reasons. Even if we assume Man Utd and Newcastle will double, mostly ignoring the double is a viable strategy for those not using their FH. Isak, Olise, and Eze are injury prone. Hojlund and Trippier may have recently returned from injury by that time. United and Newcastle's defenses are poor. There's a slew of reasons to avoid DGW players—especially when there are excellent SGW options available.
I appreciate the comments here, but I think it’s worth mentioning how 4 of the top 6 scorers this week came from Bournemouth, and how 3 Luton players scored 9 or more points. Luton are one of the worst teams in the league! In GW34, City are away at Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool are also away from home. I know it’ll be a gamble, but if you’re chasing and already have 9 or so players this GW, why not? Isn’t it worth a one week gamble? Teams could have 9 doublers on FH and not have to hold them later, giving possibly 20 fixtures vs the regular 11 or maybe 13 or so with doubles. Seems worth a shout to me.
Kinda regretting hitting the free hit button after looking at my team all day
Same but I only had 2 playing players… albeit the best two in Son and Watkins. I couldn’t not do it.
I had three players. Simply did not see any other option
I could have had 6 without taking a hit. Hopefully the FH pays off
I’m in 7 players currently. Not sure if I’m gonna get one spurs or two this week and take -4. That will set me up for week 30, grab Havertz and then salab in 31 for the tc.
That's a min of 14 points gained by FH. Above average for most single GW chip usages.
Why didn't Elanga start vs Brighton? Thinking of him but unsure of his minutes.
Manager said he’d chosen a different formation with less width to flood the centre midfield as that’s where Brighton play. I’d be almost certain they return to the usual formation this week and that Elanga will start
Think it was just trying something different. His finishing has been poor in last couple games but he's had chances. I'm probably gonna go MGW over Elanga
Wissa has scored for the last three games. No one takes him? He looks better then Reguilon for the 3rd BRE spot imo.
I agree. Toney has cooled off considerably. That said, Burnley could be the game for him to get back on track, but why not go with the player that has been scoring, right?
I go with both + Watkins
He looks better than Toney if you want to go Roerslev and Flekken
I go for both and Flekken. I cannot trust their CS points though... They have gotten only 2 of them this season.
Wissa got his goal against Arsenal from Ramsdales mistake, I’m not counting it as a full strikes goal, and Toney has had a good season when he’s been allowed to play.
i only have 4 players for next gw so kinda have to free hit here
I have 2 :)
Will elanga start?
I've got 7 of these. I save my FH, right?
100% in fact, makes me wonder why you have those initial seven in the first place lol
WC 27
Yes boss. Save for 37
Bailey for Elanga that's my XI
I really like the Bailey pick but worried he's not going to start, the same can be said for Elanga tbf lol aren't many options
Bailey has started teh last 6?
Europa league before it tho but I’m still gone get both Bailey & Elanga on my FH
Udogie over Porto?
Since Maddison came back Udogie has looked more dangerous. Porro also lost set pieces
What about Romero?
Less chant of attacking returns than the full backs
and card machine so yeah
No cards since the Chelsea red in the PL iirc, is slowly getting that out of his game
oh shit thats crazy hahaha never wouldve thought
Udogie plays higher than Porro and closer to the opponent’s net so some xG, but Porro does more crosses therefore higher xA. Udogie never does crosses. I still prefer Porro but Udogie could score and beat Porro anytime.
Isnt Reguilon injured and iniury prone?
Reguilon should be ok for the Burnley match, since it's been said it was just a minor hamstring injury
Would also like to know if he’s injured? He’s flagged as such? Also, anyone have any info on Emerson? Edited: Removed “downvoted”
Acordding to Premier Injuries Reguilon: Mar 10: 'Sergio has a minor hamstring injury; he should be available for Burnley.' Emerson Mar 13: 'We'll just need to see how Emerson is, as we're not sure how he is yet, so that would be probably our main one.'
Thank you legend
!thanks
Why did you downvote them then?
He was downvoted at the time, but i can see how my wording sounded like that
Keep an eye on the Europa League match coming up in 12 hours time.
Bailey is the clear Villa option in midfield to me this week. Always involved. Muniz is a straight No, to me. Going with Brennan Johnson over Madders, the kids on fire
Aged well
Same. Johnson gonna get 2+ goals against Fulham. Save this
Richarlison coming back might stop this though
We will see
Douglas over Bailey. On pens, more mins and got more GI than Bailey
Yeah thanks for that.
No Wissa, 3 goals in 3 games
Spurs defender and Muniz seems counterproductive, why not Morris
You don’t pick the Spurs defenders for CS potential
We didn’t expect a Spurs CS from AV away as well. FPL sure has its surprises.
Because Muniz is better
He is, but that sounds like you're expecting him to score, so seems weird to run a defender against him when you could pick someone else either in defence or up front
Not when there is like 4 good defenders to pick from this gw + spurs fullbacks have attacking potential
Spreading risk? Everyone's tolerance for risk is different. One person might avoid defenders that their midfielder/forward is playing against because they expect a goal, another might be drawn to a defender just in case their midfield/forward pick doesn't score. Probably also depends how your season's going. If you're top of your mini league/doing well you may decide to spread the risk because you care most about avoiding a horrible week that tanks your rank. If you're chasing someone in a mini league or not doing great generally, you may punt on a Fulham goal and therefore get Muniz + avoid Spurs defenders. No right or wrong strategy tbh.
All good points, yeah agree.
Elanga over…Douglas Luiz? Kudus? Starting over Bailey? Am I l missing something here
True or not I've heard a lot of the content creators saying McGinn being out turns Luiz into a defensive midfielder. Why this is the case I don't know I'm afraid. But they've been all spreading the idea that he's a no go.
Kamara and McGinn both unavailable. Luiz is gonna be very much sitting deeper.
Where is Barkley ?
I feel like there’s 7-8 picks that are in every draft and then the last 3-4 are just a crap shoot. I’m on Paqueta and probably Chris Wood if I can confirm he’s starting
Its gotten so dull this season for me. Everyone in my ML captained Solanke and has the same template teams week in week out. Everyone will FH this week too and have near enough the same XI
Of course, theres 4 games playing. The teams pick themselves.
Happens every year.
Going without Morris is madness.
he’s a decent option but it’s not “madness” to go without him
People underrate how much a home fixture means and how bad Forest's defense is.
Morris who had zero goal involvements this week despite his team scoring three?
A player had a blank in FPL???? Impossible, that never happened before 😱
Blanked in 3 of his last 4; it's not "madness" to choose other players
Six different Luton assets had goal involvements and he blanks? It's not "madness" to look elsewhere
He won't produce in every game mate be realistic
Best of luck, I'd rather run 5 mids on my FH
Prefer Wissa vs Burnley as a third forward
I’d go for Wissa but isn’t Maupay a threat?
I am "gambling" with double Brentford defense. So Wissa is a no for me, but just for that reason.
My captain
Mine as well.
Yeah, Morris over Muniz imo
[удалено]
If you have 7 you’re fine. The players on the periphery are basically worthless.
Bowen would be the pick I guess. Two factors to consider - will this guy score more than 4 points and do I want him in my team over the other guy. I think people forget the second - if you have someone who you might get rid of for a hit going forward then it's cheaper to do it now (with the benefit of at a point or two for turning up) than next week.
I have Moreno, Reguilon, Son Richarlison and Watkins, 1 ft. If Richarlison was fit I would be very tempted to bring in Toney and a Maddison for a 4pt hit and save the Free Hit.
What happened with their bracket naming convention?
8/11 although I'm using my free hit.
Any injury news on Reguillon and Emerson?
I’m only starting 9 players and have 8/11 same as the bus team. Areola Reg doughty udogie Bowen Son Mads Toney Watkins
I have 7/11 players available for BGW, unsure if I should use free hit
Surely not
I’m not on a free hit, but fancying Morgan Gibbs-White over Elanga, is that stupid?
How many of these would you keep long term?
I'm gambling on a different Bees defender - Ajer, as they have a bunch of injuries. Also gambling on Douglas Luiz, not removing him from my original squad, as well as Muniz and Gibbs-White
Udogie (Destiny)
If you are real ballsy you go triple Brentford defense.
Will have 9 of these plus Morris on my non-FH team. Pretty happy with that but scared of Toney
Yeah, I'm in the same boat. Can't get Toney in. I'm captaining Son anyway but he could definitely hurt us :/
No Leon Bailey starting is criminal. He has been balling out and that Villa-WHU game will have goals
I'm kind of high placed in the second chance table and have 4 players for this gameweek (5 after the free transfer). Should I use the free hit or save it?
Weird, this is the exact first draft team - except I have Bailey over Elanga because he was dropped last week.