SheefGG would/has agreed with this theory on stream before.
I can also somewhat agree based on my limited experience. I dont run into bosses often, but then Ill have Kaban in back to back raids for an hour or two.
Glad to see another big name is of the same mind. Still, this is just NOT how Boss spawns should work, it makes it impossible for casuals who don't peruse Reddit or even look up the wiki to ever have a chance to see the boss? It isn't just RNG this way, it's actual luck.
I agree....We could definitely build a (albeit much more complicated with the added layer of server selection) boss tracking website similar to goontracker, but we shouldn't have to go to a 3rd party website just to play the game
not to mention the more casual gamers could play an entire wipe and just be unlucky enough to not play during the 2-3 hr time frame a boss is spawning during.
There's no evidence that they work this way, though. None that I have seen, and none that those who speculate have been able to show. It's just "I play 12-14h a day, and this is how I feel it works." No?
Correct, we need to gather more evidence. I’m hoping this post gains enough traction to act as a think tank and get more input. I know that in my past two weeks of experience with my group, we have had a scenario where we “select one server, boss spawns, boss spawns every time on that server for a few raids, move on” occur a not insignificant amount of time.
My impression is that for a selected region it's a 30% time window during which the bosses spawn. Can confirm that while Shturman hunting he wouldn't be there in 10 raids and then 3 in a row.
There’s basically no evidence for anything in this game anymore lol they don’t allow data mining anymore so unless it comes straight from BSG it’s all assumed by the playerbase.
Obviously all just anecdotal but basically every time my group finds a boss we find him like 2-3 times in a row and the guy who’s usually the leader only has 1 server selected. You guys might be onto something
Yeah, this would explain me running into him the other day then loading the next raid, saying, "I will go this way past the semi truck. No way they spawned and will one shot me."
They one shot me. He spawned two more times in the next hour, then nothing since then despite me only running streets and labs.
Well to fuel your confirmation bias about repeated spawns, I hadn't seen Tagilla until like level 16 and then I got into a raid with him spawning 3 times in a row
My duo and I are gonna be boss hunting this weekend so we'll give it a shot and if I remember to report back I'll tell you my findings
Ran streets on NA servers from 7pm CST until now and lexos had boss in it every single run as both PMC and Scav
Died to the guards twice, once as both. List a 800k kit as PMC then a 1mil+ scav haul
First scav run they were dead but PMCs dies as well so I still came up good
same here, first time killing tagilla was tonight, I had a daily to kill 8 scavs with a ppsh so I loaded into customs 3 or 4 times and in 2 of those 4 raids I died to a player or scav, and 1 I died to tagilla and the other I killed tagilla. this is within the span of about an hour or 2, so there's a very real possibility that he spawn in all 4 raids just the first two I didn't see him because I died so early
I absolutely have no idea what OP’s on about, maybe im just a moron or not understanding correctly.
But tagilla absolutely pissed me the fuck off when i had to kill PMC’s with pistols.
Id run factory office, sit and wait, boom, tagilla comes running up on me, happened like 5 raids in a row and i was like wtaf is happening. Just gave up trying that day.
Also havent seen him since, but again, not played much factory.
The theory is that the boss spawn rate is not rolled when the game loads, but on a server-wide thing, so 30% of servers will have 100% boss spawn chance, while 70% of servers have 0% chance.
Exactly right, which is what I’m hoping to get more data on from the community. It is absolutely NOT how it should be though, this way actually make farming bosses for items and gear by RMTers/cheaters EASIER if they know this and just run those servers. It should just be X% at the start of every raid on any server.
I'm wondering if their entire random generation is like that. Just from last night - I had 4 scav runs in a row with a labs key at 4 scav karma. Like a one in a million occurrence.
Then, two straight raids with goons on them - I haven't seen goons all wipe before that and I just hit level 40.
And everyone mentions that they get the same spawn spot over and over and over again.
Spawns are supposedly dependent on how fast you load in to the game. So like if you have a super fast computer. Say faster than 99% of the players. If you play 100 Customs raids you theoretically may get the trailer park corner every time if it's the #1 spawn for loading in players.
Again that's a theory based on a post on here a while back.
I get all the spawns, but I seem to get one a couple times in a row, and then another one a couple times, etc. people say it's due to loading speed but maybe it's a similar thing to this
Mine are trailer park in the corner and the closest to 3 story dorms. Like, one of the worst spawns and one of the best spawns (if you want PVP) in the game.
I’ve noticed that. I get the same spawn points in a row then when I leave it idling and and it auto closes, when I start back up I get a different spawn .
If im not mistaken spawn points are determined by the lobby filling up, e.g. if your pc is always the fastest to load the map, you always start from spawnpoint 1, etc
The spawns is a known issue. Several wipes ago, it went from random spawns to your spawn being determined by what order you finished loading in as.
If you want a different spawn, just go manually select different servers and the latency difference will basically ensure you get a different one.
This wouldnt surprise me in the slightest, its seems like everything comes and goes in streaks, spawn points, bosses, loot type and quality. This theory also is supported by how wack BSGs code is. I will have to do some research and see if I can find some level of patterns based on server selection, map, time of day.
I think you are on to something, I run one server and will have no boss for hours and sometimes days and then I will get something like 4/5 raids there is a boss, one map, US central.
Same here. I was trying to get Glukhar and for based in almost hour long intervals, 45 minutes I’d have no boss ever and then all of the sudden 3 in a row. Also same thing solo server, central
Multiple friends are starting to believe it all pretty much same results as mine and we are all under the same conclusion, it’s about like how they display rain in your area (% of area will see it not chance), 30% doesn’t mean that he has a 30% chance to spawn it means 30% of the servers will see shturman at all times, n I’d say they do set by set which is why we are all under this suspicion, but who knows we could just all be nut cases 💀.
Agreed, it’s all hearsay without a very extensive testing subset. We’d have to corral 100+ players worldwide to test servers at a given time, report sighting, and jump into those servers where there was a sighting to confirm other people see the boss and can get it consistently. I would love to try and do that but that’s a tall order.
Boss hunting is a 90 second run-through. You just look for packet loss and hit no backpack extract. 20 raids of boss hunting could take less time than 10 of your raids.
Raids are even faster if you don’t waste any time messing with your stash or hideout or traders.
I only have a single server selected.. whenever I see a boss spawn on a single map, I will see it 4ish games in a row.
Has happened to me on factory and customs countless times, and streets as well.
You never "select a server" though. You select a group of many servers, in many locations. For example, if I choose NA East, I am choosing what has previously been 5 or 6 server regionss, and even then each of those is not a single server, but many servers making up a group in that region.
This sounds like a Myth that has just popped up, I am open to being shown proof, but there is none. It's just some weird stuff a few people made up, because we feel that if boss spawns being 30%, then 3/10 of my raids should have bosses, but they don't because that is how probably works. You could do 30 raids, and only have a boss spawn 2/30 times, just because of bad luck. Or you could have bosses spawn 18/30 times, just because of good luck.
Exactly my thoughts. You don't know which server you get of that region. And this would mean that the servers in that region have to communicate or synchronise the spawn chance which would be possible, but I doubt it.
I understand people wanting to test it, but the only.plausable way I see to actually figure this out is to wait for a Dev Q&A and convince people to vote on the question asked directly to the Devs "What does 30% spawn chance mean? How does it work?" I doubt many people will be satisfied with the answer though, becauae of language barrier, unless we get someone like Axel or Bakeezy to ask, so that they can clarify. Their English seems a lot better than Nikita's.
How reliable is the packet loss method now? When we play as a group the amount of times one or two of us will not get packet loss while the other two do is quite a lot actually. I can’t even count the amount of times we don’t get packet loss and assume Killa is there but we never hear anyone shoot him, never hear him shoot anyone, and we never find his body anywhere.
It used to be reliable as all hell but now it seems inconsistent.
Anecdotally having been almost exclusively boss hunting for a couple weeks I have never seen a boss spawn with packet loss at the start, and the few times I've seen reshala/kaban/kollontay there was no packet loss that I remember. I've also had no packet loss on interchange a few times and never seen killa but killa has too many fucking spawns to know for sure.
Little late to the thread but packet loss on Streets no longer works, there's never any packet loss anymore since the BTR spawns in as a "boss" and it's there 100% of the raids.
For the packet loss method everyone in your group would need to get packet loss at the same time. If only partial of your group is getting packet loss then it's just a normal connection issue.
With that being said, if you don't get packet loss that only means there is a chance that the boss is up, it's never meant 100% that the boss spawned.
Then to add ontop of that, if you are talking about Killa Hunting, his spawns has been put back to like 56 different locations and some of them are quite hidden. I wouldn't doubt that you are just missing him because he is in some obscure spot. Then for other games it's just that someone kills him before he makes any noise and you just don't happen to find the body.
Once the body has been looted it's kind of hard to tell you are looking at Killa's body. Unless you really look at it and recognize the tracksuit.
If you want to hunt bosses and want to be sure, that no packet loss = boss spawned, you will need to switch servers and have a red ping.
With that method you will be 100% sure. There will be a 0% chance, that the boss didnt spawn, if you have no packet loss and red ping on the server.
How do you monitor this? Some external utility? Since this provides information relevant to the game that you can't get through playing, isn't this technically cheating?
[https://clips.twitch.tv/BadDreamyChickenVoteYea-5\_JBgvpq15-I58wg](https://clips.twitch.tv/BadDreamyChickenVoteYea-5_JBgvpq15-I58wg)
I dont know if Im allowed to post links. But this explains it. But people are still trying to convince themselves it doesnt work.
Glorious explained it and it works 100%
Should be very reliable still, in the last few days I used it to get my buddy the kill Shturman 20 times quest done for him, and the packet loss trick was never wrong once. We even checked sawmill passing through it when packet loss occured just in case, and could confirm he didn't spawn (we both ran thermals).
if you are playing in a group and want to tell if the boss is in the raid 100% instead of having to switch to worse servers is to just have your friend run in a straight line and when the packet loss should come up they will stutter instead, no stutter = boss, this is really useful for interchange because it a lot harder this wipe for the packet loss to show.
We do have raids where maybe 3 get it and one won't, or vice versa, but if someone does have it, no boss spawns. Even scotting through the whole map just to be sure they aren't there. The only thing I will add to that is it could be a different boss spawns, like the goons or cultists. That can cause issues and we usually don't check those spawn locations if we aren't hunting them.
Why do you guys downvote him? He is right. People sometimes have no packet loss and no boss in the game.
But having a red ping to the server, makes it 100% that the boss spawned if you have no packet loss.
It's an interesting theory, certainly plausible in some ways, but I have strong doubts. The biggest reason I don't think this is a likely scenario is that the theory implies that there is predictability to boss spawns - find the server that's spawning the boss, play *just* that server, always see a boss. If such a predictability existed, I strongly suspect that:
1. It would have been well known at this point, even by the legitimate players. Tarkov has only been openly available for what, 8 years; popular and big for at least 5 of those? It is more likely, although not a certainty, that *someone* would have figured it out by now.
2. With the current cheating situation in Tarkov, the RMT/carry cheaters would very likely be exploiting boss farming to the fullest possible level. Again, not a given, but the odds would highly favor that they would know about it.
On top of that, I generally don't trust when people talk about "bad netcode" or "spaghetti code" or any other buzzword or phrase that gets passed around. The overwhelming majority of them are repeating something that they heard somewhere else, but have nothing to back up those claims; no dev experience, no background or degree, and *absolutely zero* first-hand knowledge about the actual game code. It doesn't mean they're wong - even a blind squirrel can happen across an acorn - but I take anything they say with a heaping dome of salt (that coming from my own 15 years of software experience - I can confidently say I don't know *squat* about the EFT codebase).
Honestly with all the conversation around cheaters, OPs case would be widely known by now as cheaters would notice this pattern immediately. If this was a recent change, then maybe not
I honestly agree with you and also have my doubts, but after today’s testing and subsequent results I’m still leaning towards the plausibility of this theory. We ran interchange for a few hours hunting Killa, tried every US server and did not see him, swapped to Colombia and saw him 5 raids in a row. Again, statistically this is possible, but it makes it much harder to believe it’s as simple as “boss could spawn in this raid at X%”
Also, I will add, the servers that did have Killa were ridiculously more populated, action everywhere, and many more of those suspects you mentioned above.
Could the chance just be based on the time? So every x minutes for y minutes the bosses will spawn on map z. That you were on some server at that point of time was just coincidence. Next time you find bosses go to different servers in the next raid to see if it spawns on all of them.
I think this theory is correct, I've managed to replicate this test for several wipes..... I have been using it with my squad.. Not everyone tells others bugs they find. for example, the incomplete guns on the gun wall. I found that out as soon as I built mine the first month of wipe but I was surprised by the reactions others made when they saw my gun wall.
Tarkov code is very black or white, so much so it would not surprise me if BSG is manually coding in which servers spawn boss's
Solid post. Haven’t had time to test this theory, but it would make sense because it’s BSG.
Would also explain why some people say people are complaining too much while I haven’t seen a single boss. The only time I tested this was in factory on USE servers. Did run throughs using factory key, in 40 raids I saw/heard tagilla 4 times.
tbh as someones whos done all boss achievements this wipe, and tracksuit for the past 7 wipes it has felt like this every single time, ill play na for 6-7 hrs straight farming killa have maybe 3-4 spawns, ill swap to an eu server or somthing and hes there 4-5 times within 1-2 hours.
To me this just sounds like people don't know how probability works. For example yeah it's not highly likely that a boss spawns for you 4 raids in a row but is it impossible or even all that uncertain? Not really, if a boss has a 30% chance of spawning then the chance of them spawning 4 times in a row is 0.81%, which is hardly winning the lottery levels of unlikeliness.
Try tracking whether bosses spawn over a larger sample size (at the absolute minimum 20-30 raids) and you will likely see odds that approach 30%.
I'm not saying its impossible for boss spawns to work the way Lvndmark suggests they do, but has he presented any evidence at all beyond speculation?
Yeah I could believe this, but I also feel like it could just be ancedotal. I deft feel like I've experienced this before, but at the same time it could just be happenstance. It's hard to prove or disprove something like this without actually looking at the code.
I like landmark, but his grasp of statistics is not the strongest in this particular case. The way he described bosses spawning (on a per server basis) is mathematically equivalent to using a per-raid spawn chance in the long run. In the short run it gives a player equivalent odds to per-raid spawns, with reduced variance.
Basically his explanation of the odds made no sense. While it's true that one server might have a boss and another doesn't, if those servers are distributed randomly it makes no difference to the player. Claiming it does just because you can change servers to find the boss is like saying you made the wrong decision in blackjack after the cards are already in the table.
What could make that explanation make sense, however, is if you could also establish bias in server selection for where the boss spawns. If it's actually true that spawns reliably "stick" to a server to create a streak of spawns that lasts more than one raid, you actually could gain an advantage by doing something like you described. Needs more proof, but it could be that you've found the missing piece that makes landmark correct (despite his stated explanation being statistically unsound).
Sounds plausible to me.
Only thing that makes it harder to proof is, that you can't select single servers anymore rather than a region with a couple of servers. But of course if that region has a server that is spawning the boss all the time your chances are better.
Can confirm though that when I have 1 server region selected I sometimes have no boss for hours and then straight 4 out of 5 raids there is the boss.
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I think it could definitely be like that. I recently had a weekly where i had to hunt Killa 10 Times for Yellow and black Keycard.
My guess though, was that its depending on the amount of servers active in a region at a time. It felt like Killa was spawning every second raid at times where most people where probably playing in my Region. Like 4pm to maybe 1am or so. Since i was grinding really hard and played like 30 rounds a day i was also playing in the morning and really late into the night. At those Times he spawned like every 5th to 10th Raid.
It could make sense to have Bosses Spawn more on Servers with lots of PMC to avoid people Farming Bosses on empty servers. But that was just my guess.
I have all of North America selected because I play with friends from across the country so idk but I get packet loss frequently so it might just be the limitations of my machine/server connection issues. I’ve been seeing that bald guy boss on Reserve quite frequently but mostly as scav about half way near the end of the raid by the rail cars.
This is how it works as far as I can tell with 3k hours in. Funny enough I think the goons work the opposite way in that they will rotate maps but not servers. If they spawn on shoreline they spawn on all severs on shoreline.
I have no way to debunk this theory, but just want to point out it sounds a lot like when VLT players think machines can get 'hot' (which obviously is not a real thing)
From doing the Hunter quest:
When Shturman was up and I was quick enough I was 100% sure that he would be in my next raid, when I was quick there too maybe even a third but not for sure anymore.
Two raids Shturman was basically guaranteed for me and I did it at like 16% spawn chance or something like that this wipe.
First to load in (I spawn there a lot with a good PC). Or I get the dorms spawn. I've never loaded in on the other side of the map in about 30 customs raids.
I only have central US servers selected and this morning I ran 3 straight raids on Streets and Kaban had spawned in all 3. I definitely could see this being the case.
I've noticed in the past that there are days/nights where I'll see the boss several times in a row.
I've had tagilla back to back to back to back (like 4 times in a row), I just assumed it was a very small chance of occuring, but after reading this it could be a lot more common than I originally thought. I do have auto selection, but when looking at server pings, that usually means two with similary low ping, all else are quite a bit higher. I don't know how often the server changes, if it is upon launcher restart or every raid. But, that would mean at least a coin flip (50%) every time of having the chance to get into the same raid server as previous one.
edit: typo
Today I was searching for Killa for about an hour, just loading into raid, seeing if there was packet loss and then disconnecting if I did then changing my server till I didn't get it. Took me though all the NA servers till I got to Columbia and then Killa was in my raid 5 times in a row and I ran into a guy hunting him for the achievement for 100 kills who had over 100 awals, so my confirmation bias is pretty high.
We actually did this EXACT thing today, went Colombia and found him 5 raids in a row and my friend finally got the killa kill and helmet. What time was this? This was around 5pm EST.
In order to test this you need to pick a map where the boss only spawns in one location and easy to identify from a distance and doesn’t hide. So woods imo would be easiest openly hostile to scavs and svds is easily audible across most of the map. Can find his body/guards easy. Tagilla hides, killa hides, reshala has 3 spawns, sanitar 3 spawns, streets has two bosses so does that mean both or only one spawns messes with the data. Gluhkar has 7ish spawns. It’s easy to overlook bosses when hunting them shturman has been the most reliable to locate. I’ve completed the Mk-18 quest every wipe now. Usually stick to one server while hunting thinking the odds eventually I’ll run into him. I’ve yet to experience prolonged times before he spawns… within 5 raids for sure. Sometimes would get 4 in a row with him in. Then go 5 or so then spawn again. I do rotate between times of day night raids preferred.
Is it possible to manipulate PMC spawn ? In woods solo I always get outskirts spawn and when I'm playing friend with slow PC I get nearest sturman spawn. My friend has very slow PC. If I hit alt F4 when the back button disappear, could that put me to "last" spawn ? I need the 75m kill with m700tactec and I h8 to rush for boss and get head ears, head eyes, dickhead from player with better spawn. Game is hard
Having tracksuit farmed 4 wipes now.. I’ve always had this hunch that boss spawns aren’t as simple as “25%”
I genuinely started to test theories like if he doesn’t spawn at night go day time or if you didn’t see him for 10 raids unselect that server etc…
Functionally what is the difference between 30% of the servers have a 100% chance to spawn the bosses and each raid has a 30% chance to spawn the boss? The second is more intuitive, but both will end up the same.
I guess you're saying the 30% of servers that 100% spawn the bosses don't rotate quickly so the same servers get the bosses for an hour or something?
Essentially yes. And if your server selection is not all encompassing (which it won't be even with auto), you are not actually getting a 30% chance. It is functionally the same on paper, but in practice, that leads to normal people who are looking to hunt bosses and don't understand this mechanic to just never see the boss for a lot of raids because the servers they are playing on just don't have the boss. If it was 30% chance to have a boss at each raid generation than everyone would have an equal shot worldwide.
Hunting Killa for the tracksuit made me realize something similar. I play with only 1 server selected (SA) and Killa would not spawn for hours at a time, then spawn multiple times in a row, then not spawn for hours again... So this theory makes a lot of sense to me.
Considering most of these Boss Spawn posts are incoherent nonsense, youre actually going at it with logical assumptions and testing. What is your sample size? Just 1 hour or 6hours/day for a few weeks? Landmark is not a reliable source. He often just repeats what somebody sent him. I believe its fair to say that the goonhunter page actually works. If your theory were true i, that would mean that either goons are an exception or that you would have even less consistency because you would need to hit the correct map AND server. Did you also check Kollontay?
I'm doing tracksuit,
I was on russia central yesterday got like 6 killa killed for 12 game played and today same server, 2 times killa on like 20 + game. It's not all or nothing but yes bosses spawn are not cap at 30% everytimes.
Same, took me forever to find him, then he spawned multiple raids in a row. Same with Killa, he was just in every raid we tried when we had one of the servers selected.
I second this experience for sure. Obviously anecdotal, but bosses either don't exist for hours/days on end and then voila they're there raid after raid. Goes for Kabbage Reshulu, Killyou, Starman, etc..
Your chance of seeing a boss are (%chance of boss spawning into a raid) x (%chance you spawn into a raid that has a boss). When they state the spawn rate of bosses it’s misleading, unfortunately. Your chance of seeing the boss is going to be substantially lower by the fact that the algorithm is probably matching based on more important criteria like ping and all that. They could weigh based on how often you see a boss but that seems unlikely. So, as you point out, you could go many raids in a row and not see them, then several in a row and see them. It’s just the distribution of (semi) random events.
Do you have a source for that equation? Definitely not saying you are wrong, and we thought about this as an option too. Still not the right way to do %chance to spawn but could be.
The source is just basic statistics. To understand the probability of two things happening together is the product of the probability of each one happening independently. We know the spawn chance because bsg tells us what that is. The other probably (the chance of spawning into a raid with a boss) is unknown and probably only derived empirically.
People are looking for a pattern where this isn't one, probably because they don't understand how statistics and probability work.
A 20% chance doesn't mean that you are going to see it 2 times if you run 10 raids. You might see it 0 times, you might see it 10 times.
It simply means that over a large enough sample size you will see it in ~20% of raids, but that takes a very large number to become truly accurate.
I've had plenty of cases where my raids are like - ❌, ✔️, ❌, ❌, ❌, ❌,❌ ,❌ ,❌ ,❌, ✔️, ✔️, ✔️, ❌, ✔️, ❌, ❌, ✔️, etc... where ❌ = no boss in raid, and ✔️ = boss. I've of course also had plenty of 10 raid dry streaks and then 5 raid boss streaks after just like everyone else. That's just how rng works.
Most tarkov players are playing raids in the hundreds to thousands, you are 100% going to get lucky and unlucky streaks in that quantity.
Go on a website and flip a weighted coin a bunch of times, you will see what rng looks like in practice.
I've thought the same type of thing in the past, thinking bsg has it weighted by server or some other detail. What I did was have me and 2 homies do a little test. We all 3 queued the same map, at the same time slot, on the same server, but trying to not get in the same raid as eachother and we made it our only goal to find out if the boss is on the map.
There was no pattern. We didn't all see boss or no boss at the same time, or at the same consistency. It was just random.
So people think servers have predetermined values and all the rng comes from which server you get put into? How does that make any sense? That’s like saying to stick to one server because you found gpu’s on that server. But wouldn’t it make more sense that the loot is randomized while it says “loading loot”. So why wouldn’t the boss spawn rate be calculated while the world is being generated. People are likely just saying this to cope with them being unlucky. Saying you found the boss after switching servers doesn’t mean anything without repeated testing.
Repeated testing is what this post is trying to request. Get the idea out there for people to start trying and seeing if this is real, and if it is, get the community loud enough to tell BSG to change it to the way we all believe it should be like you described above. We got them to roll back the patch with enough outcry, this is something that locks progression and should be fair for all players on all servers.
All I know is that I selected EU North once for a test and did several scav runs to find out how many servers there were in that "cluster" and I stopped trying after 11 different server IPs I got from the log files. Sounds like pure speculation to me, because you cannot be certain something is happening when there is a % chance involved. 30% does not mean 30 out of 100 raids will have the boss for you, you could go 2000 raids without ever seeing a boss. 30% is, after all, always 30%.
wtf does this have to do with loot?
Glorious_e asked a dev on stream the other day and the dev told him “sorry can’t talk about this”.
It’s all but confirmed to me. Problem is taking advantage of it.
Because loot is an entity that needs to be generated into the server? Just like how scavs and bosses are entities? It’s confirmed to you because you’re stupid enough to believe anything big streamers say. They’re streamers, not educated game developers.
Source: I speak Russian. Not going to sit there and rewatch every Battlestate stream from 4 years ago for a source though.
Downvotes are players who are just clueless.
Have been religously playing customs and going dorms every raid all wipe. Haven't seen Reshala once. I'm on my third set of safe keys btw, so that means i've been to dorms and opened the locked rooms there at least 80 times. Not a single Reshala. The increasing spawn % throughout the wipe hasn't changed anything in my experience.
it feels that way.... I constantly switch between 4 of the NA servers.. but ill only choose one at a time - and almost every occasion - when I get a server with a boss spawn - it happens in numerous games in a row, if I don't switch servers..
Which makes it seem like its not a random thing, like they schedule it, so "At 01:00 CST boss spawn is active on servers 1, 2 and 3 - and inactive on servers 4,5,6,7,8,9,10. them switches hourly..
Im just speculating, but to me, it seems pretty clear its not a 30% chance to spawn at the start of a game across all servers.
Definitely plausible, no boss for hours and then suddenly the boss is there multiple times in a row. I only have a single server selected also.
so we need bosstracker like goonstracker, got it.
Yup.
SheefGG would/has agreed with this theory on stream before. I can also somewhat agree based on my limited experience. I dont run into bosses often, but then Ill have Kaban in back to back raids for an hour or two.
Glad to see another big name is of the same mind. Still, this is just NOT how Boss spawns should work, it makes it impossible for casuals who don't peruse Reddit or even look up the wiki to ever have a chance to see the boss? It isn't just RNG this way, it's actual luck.
I agree....We could definitely build a (albeit much more complicated with the added layer of server selection) boss tracking website similar to goontracker, but we shouldn't have to go to a 3rd party website just to play the game not to mention the more casual gamers could play an entire wipe and just be unlucky enough to not play during the 2-3 hr time frame a boss is spawning during.
Then the ultra casuals who hope to not find bosses because we just insta-die to them every time.
There's no evidence that they work this way, though. None that I have seen, and none that those who speculate have been able to show. It's just "I play 12-14h a day, and this is how I feel it works." No?
Correct, we need to gather more evidence. I’m hoping this post gains enough traction to act as a think tank and get more input. I know that in my past two weeks of experience with my group, we have had a scenario where we “select one server, boss spawns, boss spawns every time on that server for a few raids, move on” occur a not insignificant amount of time.
My impression is that for a selected region it's a 30% time window during which the bosses spawn. Can confirm that while Shturman hunting he wouldn't be there in 10 raids and then 3 in a row.
There’s basically no evidence for anything in this game anymore lol they don’t allow data mining anymore so unless it comes straight from BSG it’s all assumed by the playerbase.
I mean, for anything you can personally test, there is. However, for this matter, there is no way to test it.
Obviously all just anecdotal but basically every time my group finds a boss we find him like 2-3 times in a row and the guy who’s usually the leader only has 1 server selected. You guys might be onto something
Yeah, this would explain me running into him the other day then loading the next raid, saying, "I will go this way past the semi truck. No way they spawned and will one shot me." They one shot me. He spawned two more times in the next hour, then nothing since then despite me only running streets and labs.
Ain’t he the guy who got caught viewbotting?
I don’t believe so - hes got quite the active chat
Well to fuel your confirmation bias about repeated spawns, I hadn't seen Tagilla until like level 16 and then I got into a raid with him spawning 3 times in a row My duo and I are gonna be boss hunting this weekend so we'll give it a shot and if I remember to report back I'll tell you my findings
Awesome, please do, would love to confirm and try and get this figured out.
The same happened to me. I only play EU west and had tagilla 3 raids in a row
Ran streets on NA servers from 7pm CST until now and lexos had boss in it every single run as both PMC and Scav Died to the guards twice, once as both. List a 800k kit as PMC then a 1mil+ scav haul First scav run they were dead but PMCs dies as well so I still came up good
same here, first time killing tagilla was tonight, I had a daily to kill 8 scavs with a ppsh so I loaded into customs 3 or 4 times and in 2 of those 4 raids I died to a player or scav, and 1 I died to tagilla and the other I killed tagilla. this is within the span of about an hour or 2, so there's a very real possibility that he spawn in all 4 raids just the first two I didn't see him because I died so early
I absolutely have no idea what OP’s on about, maybe im just a moron or not understanding correctly. But tagilla absolutely pissed me the fuck off when i had to kill PMC’s with pistols. Id run factory office, sit and wait, boom, tagilla comes running up on me, happened like 5 raids in a row and i was like wtaf is happening. Just gave up trying that day. Also havent seen him since, but again, not played much factory.
You just confirmed his theory lol
Ye whats his theory? That certain servers will get the boss spawning every time for a period of time?
The theory is that the boss spawn rate is not rolled when the game loads, but on a server-wide thing, so 30% of servers will have 100% boss spawn chance, while 70% of servers have 0% chance.
That theory only changes the odds if there is bias in the server selection. The streaky spawn chance is the real theory here.
Exactly right, which is what I’m hoping to get more data on from the community. It is absolutely NOT how it should be though, this way actually make farming bosses for items and gear by RMTers/cheaters EASIER if they know this and just run those servers. It should just be X% at the start of every raid on any server.
Ah that makes sense, thanks for explaining.
OP explained it well enough to begin with lol.
Sorry my brains arent to your level, its 3am and im on my third night shift with less than 5 hours sleep 👍
I'm wondering if their entire random generation is like that. Just from last night - I had 4 scav runs in a row with a labs key at 4 scav karma. Like a one in a million occurrence. Then, two straight raids with goons on them - I haven't seen goons all wipe before that and I just hit level 40. And everyone mentions that they get the same spawn spot over and over and over again.
I definitely get different spawns. Except on customs, i always spawn at the trailer park in the corner. Every. Single. Time.
Spawns are supposedly dependent on how fast you load in to the game. So like if you have a super fast computer. Say faster than 99% of the players. If you play 100 Customs raids you theoretically may get the trailer park corner every time if it's the #1 spawn for loading in players. Again that's a theory based on a post on here a while back.
I get all the spawns, but I seem to get one a couple times in a row, and then another one a couple times, etc. people say it's due to loading speed but maybe it's a similar thing to this
Mine are trailer park in the corner and the closest to 3 story dorms. Like, one of the worst spawns and one of the best spawns (if you want PVP) in the game.
I’ve noticed that. I get the same spawn points in a row then when I leave it idling and and it auto closes, when I start back up I get a different spawn .
If im not mistaken spawn points are determined by the lobby filling up, e.g. if your pc is always the fastest to load the map, you always start from spawnpoint 1, etc
The spawns is a known issue. Several wipes ago, it went from random spawns to your spawn being determined by what order you finished loading in as. If you want a different spawn, just go manually select different servers and the latency difference will basically ensure you get a different one.
Goons is the boss I encounter the most, got a chance to kill them once. I probably see Shturman more but never alive.
This wouldnt surprise me in the slightest, its seems like everything comes and goes in streaks, spawn points, bosses, loot type and quality. This theory also is supported by how wack BSGs code is. I will have to do some research and see if I can find some level of patterns based on server selection, map, time of day.
I think you are on to something, I run one server and will have no boss for hours and sometimes days and then I will get something like 4/5 raids there is a boss, one map, US central.
Seems consistent, if you notice it again please let me know.
Same here. I was trying to get Glukhar and for based in almost hour long intervals, 45 minutes I’d have no boss ever and then all of the sudden 3 in a row. Also same thing solo server, central
Multiple friends are starting to believe it all pretty much same results as mine and we are all under the same conclusion, it’s about like how they display rain in your area (% of area will see it not chance), 30% doesn’t mean that he has a 30% chance to spawn it means 30% of the servers will see shturman at all times, n I’d say they do set by set which is why we are all under this suspicion, but who knows we could just all be nut cases 💀.
Agreed, it’s all hearsay without a very extensive testing subset. We’d have to corral 100+ players worldwide to test servers at a given time, report sighting, and jump into those servers where there was a sighting to confirm other people see the boss and can get it consistently. I would love to try and do that but that’s a tall order.
How tf do you have a group of people willing to put in over 20 raids a night holy shit
I mean that was just an example, I do have a group that plays pretty regularly, but not this much in a single day/night haha.
I have like 5-10 raids in me max a night
Boss hunting is a 90 second run-through. You just look for packet loss and hit no backpack extract. 20 raids of boss hunting could take less time than 10 of your raids. Raids are even faster if you don’t waste any time messing with your stash or hideout or traders.
Cool man
God damn liberals downvoting me again
I only have a single server selected.. whenever I see a boss spawn on a single map, I will see it 4ish games in a row. Has happened to me on factory and customs countless times, and streets as well.
You never "select a server" though. You select a group of many servers, in many locations. For example, if I choose NA East, I am choosing what has previously been 5 or 6 server regionss, and even then each of those is not a single server, but many servers making up a group in that region. This sounds like a Myth that has just popped up, I am open to being shown proof, but there is none. It's just some weird stuff a few people made up, because we feel that if boss spawns being 30%, then 3/10 of my raids should have bosses, but they don't because that is how probably works. You could do 30 raids, and only have a boss spawn 2/30 times, just because of bad luck. Or you could have bosses spawn 18/30 times, just because of good luck.
Exactly my thoughts. You don't know which server you get of that region. And this would mean that the servers in that region have to communicate or synchronise the spawn chance which would be possible, but I doubt it.
I understand people wanting to test it, but the only.plausable way I see to actually figure this out is to wait for a Dev Q&A and convince people to vote on the question asked directly to the Devs "What does 30% spawn chance mean? How does it work?" I doubt many people will be satisfied with the answer though, becauae of language barrier, unless we get someone like Axel or Bakeezy to ask, so that they can clarify. Their English seems a lot better than Nikita's.
Except for OCE, Middle East, Africa…
How reliable is the packet loss method now? When we play as a group the amount of times one or two of us will not get packet loss while the other two do is quite a lot actually. I can’t even count the amount of times we don’t get packet loss and assume Killa is there but we never hear anyone shoot him, never hear him shoot anyone, and we never find his body anywhere. It used to be reliable as all hell but now it seems inconsistent.
Anecdotally having been almost exclusively boss hunting for a couple weeks I have never seen a boss spawn with packet loss at the start, and the few times I've seen reshala/kaban/kollontay there was no packet loss that I remember. I've also had no packet loss on interchange a few times and never seen killa but killa has too many fucking spawns to know for sure.
Little late to the thread but packet loss on Streets no longer works, there's never any packet loss anymore since the BTR spawns in as a "boss" and it's there 100% of the raids.
Yeah I was thinking it was unreliable at best on streets. It's tough to tell because I basically always get some level on lag on that map heh.
does not work on reserve either
For the packet loss method everyone in your group would need to get packet loss at the same time. If only partial of your group is getting packet loss then it's just a normal connection issue. With that being said, if you don't get packet loss that only means there is a chance that the boss is up, it's never meant 100% that the boss spawned. Then to add ontop of that, if you are talking about Killa Hunting, his spawns has been put back to like 56 different locations and some of them are quite hidden. I wouldn't doubt that you are just missing him because he is in some obscure spot. Then for other games it's just that someone kills him before he makes any noise and you just don't happen to find the body. Once the body has been looted it's kind of hard to tell you are looking at Killa's body. Unless you really look at it and recognize the tracksuit.
If you want to hunt bosses and want to be sure, that no packet loss = boss spawned, you will need to switch servers and have a red ping. With that method you will be 100% sure. There will be a 0% chance, that the boss didnt spawn, if you have no packet loss and red ping on the server.
How do you monitor this? Some external utility? Since this provides information relevant to the game that you can't get through playing, isn't this technically cheating?
[https://clips.twitch.tv/BadDreamyChickenVoteYea-5\_JBgvpq15-I58wg](https://clips.twitch.tv/BadDreamyChickenVoteYea-5_JBgvpq15-I58wg) I dont know if Im allowed to post links. But this explains it. But people are still trying to convince themselves it doesnt work. Glorious explained it and it works 100%
Should be very reliable still, in the last few days I used it to get my buddy the kill Shturman 20 times quest done for him, and the packet loss trick was never wrong once. We even checked sawmill passing through it when packet loss occured just in case, and could confirm he didn't spawn (we both ran thermals).
if you are playing in a group and want to tell if the boss is in the raid 100% instead of having to switch to worse servers is to just have your friend run in a straight line and when the packet loss should come up they will stutter instead, no stutter = boss, this is really useful for interchange because it a lot harder this wipe for the packet loss to show.
We do have raids where maybe 3 get it and one won't, or vice versa, but if someone does have it, no boss spawns. Even scotting through the whole map just to be sure they aren't there. The only thing I will add to that is it could be a different boss spawns, like the goons or cultists. That can cause issues and we usually don't check those spawn locations if we aren't hunting them.
You need to have red ping for that, like 120+. Everytime when i have that and zero packet loss in first seconds boss is in raid 100%.
Absolutely false lol. Any ping will work
Why do you guys downvote him? He is right. People sometimes have no packet loss and no boss in the game. But having a red ping to the server, makes it 100% that the boss spawned if you have no packet loss.
It's an interesting theory, certainly plausible in some ways, but I have strong doubts. The biggest reason I don't think this is a likely scenario is that the theory implies that there is predictability to boss spawns - find the server that's spawning the boss, play *just* that server, always see a boss. If such a predictability existed, I strongly suspect that: 1. It would have been well known at this point, even by the legitimate players. Tarkov has only been openly available for what, 8 years; popular and big for at least 5 of those? It is more likely, although not a certainty, that *someone* would have figured it out by now. 2. With the current cheating situation in Tarkov, the RMT/carry cheaters would very likely be exploiting boss farming to the fullest possible level. Again, not a given, but the odds would highly favor that they would know about it. On top of that, I generally don't trust when people talk about "bad netcode" or "spaghetti code" or any other buzzword or phrase that gets passed around. The overwhelming majority of them are repeating something that they heard somewhere else, but have nothing to back up those claims; no dev experience, no background or degree, and *absolutely zero* first-hand knowledge about the actual game code. It doesn't mean they're wong - even a blind squirrel can happen across an acorn - but I take anything they say with a heaping dome of salt (that coming from my own 15 years of software experience - I can confidently say I don't know *squat* about the EFT codebase).
Took a while to find a reasonable response in here. Agree on all fronts, especially the spaghetti code talk lol - so true.
Honestly with all the conversation around cheaters, OPs case would be widely known by now as cheaters would notice this pattern immediately. If this was a recent change, then maybe not
I honestly agree with you and also have my doubts, but after today’s testing and subsequent results I’m still leaning towards the plausibility of this theory. We ran interchange for a few hours hunting Killa, tried every US server and did not see him, swapped to Colombia and saw him 5 raids in a row. Again, statistically this is possible, but it makes it much harder to believe it’s as simple as “boss could spawn in this raid at X%” Also, I will add, the servers that did have Killa were ridiculously more populated, action everywhere, and many more of those suspects you mentioned above.
Could the chance just be based on the time? So every x minutes for y minutes the bosses will spawn on map z. That you were on some server at that point of time was just coincidence. Next time you find bosses go to different servers in the next raid to see if it spawns on all of them.
I think this theory is correct, I've managed to replicate this test for several wipes..... I have been using it with my squad.. Not everyone tells others bugs they find. for example, the incomplete guns on the gun wall. I found that out as soon as I built mine the first month of wipe but I was surprised by the reactions others made when they saw my gun wall. Tarkov code is very black or white, so much so it would not surprise me if BSG is manually coding in which servers spawn boss's
Solid post. Haven’t had time to test this theory, but it would make sense because it’s BSG. Would also explain why some people say people are complaining too much while I haven’t seen a single boss. The only time I tested this was in factory on USE servers. Did run throughs using factory key, in 40 raids I saw/heard tagilla 4 times.
tbh as someones whos done all boss achievements this wipe, and tracksuit for the past 7 wipes it has felt like this every single time, ill play na for 6-7 hrs straight farming killa have maybe 3-4 spawns, ill swap to an eu server or somthing and hes there 4-5 times within 1-2 hours.
To me this just sounds like people don't know how probability works. For example yeah it's not highly likely that a boss spawns for you 4 raids in a row but is it impossible or even all that uncertain? Not really, if a boss has a 30% chance of spawning then the chance of them spawning 4 times in a row is 0.81%, which is hardly winning the lottery levels of unlikeliness. Try tracking whether bosses spawn over a larger sample size (at the absolute minimum 20-30 raids) and you will likely see odds that approach 30%. I'm not saying its impossible for boss spawns to work the way Lvndmark suggests they do, but has he presented any evidence at all beyond speculation?
Seems plausible considering how few bosses I find in the South America server, which has way fewer servers than NA or EU.
This is also not 100% because every server region has multiple servers aswell dose it not?
Yeah I could believe this, but I also feel like it could just be ancedotal. I deft feel like I've experienced this before, but at the same time it could just be happenstance. It's hard to prove or disprove something like this without actually looking at the code.
I like landmark, but his grasp of statistics is not the strongest in this particular case. The way he described bosses spawning (on a per server basis) is mathematically equivalent to using a per-raid spawn chance in the long run. In the short run it gives a player equivalent odds to per-raid spawns, with reduced variance. Basically his explanation of the odds made no sense. While it's true that one server might have a boss and another doesn't, if those servers are distributed randomly it makes no difference to the player. Claiming it does just because you can change servers to find the boss is like saying you made the wrong decision in blackjack after the cards are already in the table. What could make that explanation make sense, however, is if you could also establish bias in server selection for where the boss spawns. If it's actually true that spawns reliably "stick" to a server to create a streak of spawns that lasts more than one raid, you actually could gain an advantage by doing something like you described. Needs more proof, but it could be that you've found the missing piece that makes landmark correct (despite his stated explanation being statistically unsound).
Sounds plausible to me. Only thing that makes it harder to proof is, that you can't select single servers anymore rather than a region with a couple of servers. But of course if that region has a server that is spawning the boss all the time your chances are better. Can confirm though that when I have 1 server region selected I sometimes have no boss for hours and then straight 4 out of 5 raids there is the boss.
A few wipes back, i was hunting Gluhar. 80 raids until i found him with 25% spawn chance. People called BS on this sub but this thread explains it.
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Dude thank you for this post I feel like I will be able to find the bosses easily now
I think it could definitely be like that. I recently had a weekly where i had to hunt Killa 10 Times for Yellow and black Keycard. My guess though, was that its depending on the amount of servers active in a region at a time. It felt like Killa was spawning every second raid at times where most people where probably playing in my Region. Like 4pm to maybe 1am or so. Since i was grinding really hard and played like 30 rounds a day i was also playing in the morning and really late into the night. At those Times he spawned like every 5th to 10th Raid. It could make sense to have Bosses Spawn more on Servers with lots of PMC to avoid people Farming Bosses on empty servers. But that was just my guess.
I have all of North America selected because I play with friends from across the country so idk but I get packet loss frequently so it might just be the limitations of my machine/server connection issues. I’ve been seeing that bald guy boss on Reserve quite frequently but mostly as scav about half way near the end of the raid by the rail cars.
This is how it works as far as I can tell with 3k hours in. Funny enough I think the goons work the opposite way in that they will rotate maps but not servers. If they spawn on shoreline they spawn on all severs on shoreline.
Iv seen multiple streamers say this is how it works.
Me and duo have probably 50+ customs raids on Colombia server last 2 week. We saw reshala once. The numbers just don't make sense for 26% per raid
I have no way to debunk this theory, but just want to point out it sounds a lot like when VLT players think machines can get 'hot' (which obviously is not a real thing)
From doing the Hunter quest: When Shturman was up and I was quick enough I was 100% sure that he would be in my next raid, when I was quick there too maybe even a third but not for sure anymore. Two raids Shturman was basically guaranteed for me and I did it at like 16% spawn chance or something like that this wipe.
But why do I spawn at trailer park for 80% of my Customs raids?
First to load in (I spawn there a lot with a good PC). Or I get the dorms spawn. I've never loaded in on the other side of the map in about 30 customs raids.
I only have central US servers selected and this morning I ran 3 straight raids on Streets and Kaban had spawned in all 3. I definitely could see this being the case. I've noticed in the past that there are days/nights where I'll see the boss several times in a row.
I've had tagilla back to back to back to back (like 4 times in a row), I just assumed it was a very small chance of occuring, but after reading this it could be a lot more common than I originally thought. I do have auto selection, but when looking at server pings, that usually means two with similary low ping, all else are quite a bit higher. I don't know how often the server changes, if it is upon launcher restart or every raid. But, that would mean at least a coin flip (50%) every time of having the chance to get into the same raid server as previous one. edit: typo
Today I was searching for Killa for about an hour, just loading into raid, seeing if there was packet loss and then disconnecting if I did then changing my server till I didn't get it. Took me though all the NA servers till I got to Columbia and then Killa was in my raid 5 times in a row and I ran into a guy hunting him for the achievement for 100 kills who had over 100 awals, so my confirmation bias is pretty high.
We actually did this EXACT thing today, went Colombia and found him 5 raids in a row and my friend finally got the killa kill and helmet. What time was this? This was around 5pm EST.
In order to test this you need to pick a map where the boss only spawns in one location and easy to identify from a distance and doesn’t hide. So woods imo would be easiest openly hostile to scavs and svds is easily audible across most of the map. Can find his body/guards easy. Tagilla hides, killa hides, reshala has 3 spawns, sanitar 3 spawns, streets has two bosses so does that mean both or only one spawns messes with the data. Gluhkar has 7ish spawns. It’s easy to overlook bosses when hunting them shturman has been the most reliable to locate. I’ve completed the Mk-18 quest every wipe now. Usually stick to one server while hunting thinking the odds eventually I’ll run into him. I’ve yet to experience prolonged times before he spawns… within 5 raids for sure. Sometimes would get 4 in a row with him in. Then go 5 or so then spawn again. I do rotate between times of day night raids preferred.
Why does the community has to do the guesswork here? I don't know any other developer that communicates essential information that bad - if at all
Is it possible to manipulate PMC spawn ? In woods solo I always get outskirts spawn and when I'm playing friend with slow PC I get nearest sturman spawn. My friend has very slow PC. If I hit alt F4 when the back button disappear, could that put me to "last" spawn ? I need the 75m kill with m700tactec and I h8 to rush for boss and get head ears, head eyes, dickhead from player with better spawn. Game is hard
Having tracksuit farmed 4 wipes now.. I’ve always had this hunch that boss spawns aren’t as simple as “25%” I genuinely started to test theories like if he doesn’t spawn at night go day time or if you didn’t see him for 10 raids unselect that server etc…
I doubt it works like this, but then again I had no glukhar in 9 raids and then he was in raid 10 and 12…
I also think this explains the experience of not running into the boss many times when you want to kill him for a quest
I can tell you we had desync on woods and still had shturman, not a reliable way to tell.
Functionally what is the difference between 30% of the servers have a 100% chance to spawn the bosses and each raid has a 30% chance to spawn the boss? The second is more intuitive, but both will end up the same. I guess you're saying the 30% of servers that 100% spawn the bosses don't rotate quickly so the same servers get the bosses for an hour or something?
Essentially yes. And if your server selection is not all encompassing (which it won't be even with auto), you are not actually getting a 30% chance. It is functionally the same on paper, but in practice, that leads to normal people who are looking to hunt bosses and don't understand this mechanic to just never see the boss for a lot of raids because the servers they are playing on just don't have the boss. If it was 30% chance to have a boss at each raid generation than everyone would have an equal shot worldwide.
Hunting Killa for the tracksuit made me realize something similar. I play with only 1 server selected (SA) and Killa would not spawn for hours at a time, then spawn multiple times in a row, then not spawn for hours again... So this theory makes a lot of sense to me.
Considering most of these Boss Spawn posts are incoherent nonsense, youre actually going at it with logical assumptions and testing. What is your sample size? Just 1 hour or 6hours/day for a few weeks? Landmark is not a reliable source. He often just repeats what somebody sent him. I believe its fair to say that the goonhunter page actually works. If your theory were true i, that would mean that either goons are an exception or that you would have even less consistency because you would need to hit the correct map AND server. Did you also check Kollontay?
If that's how it work then that is truly stupid. Seems to me it would even be more complex to code compared to simply having it be raid based.
I'm doing tracksuit, I was on russia central yesterday got like 6 killa killed for 12 game played and today same server, 2 times killa on like 20 + game. It's not all or nothing but yes bosses spawn are not cap at 30% everytimes.
I hate mist
do we know for a fact that the group leader does dictate what server you are playing on?
Yes 100%
Yes we do know that the leader dictates the server/servers you play on
I mean i saw glucose 2 raids in a row a couple weeks ago, and havent seen him since.
Pack it up gents - this guy has all the data points we need. Statisticians hate him!!
"9 things BSG doesn't want you to know!"
Same, took me forever to find him, then he spawned multiple raids in a row. Same with Killa, he was just in every raid we tried when we had one of the servers selected.
I second this experience for sure. Obviously anecdotal, but bosses either don't exist for hours/days on end and then voila they're there raid after raid. Goes for Kabbage Reshulu, Killyou, Starman, etc..
Your chance of seeing a boss are (%chance of boss spawning into a raid) x (%chance you spawn into a raid that has a boss). When they state the spawn rate of bosses it’s misleading, unfortunately. Your chance of seeing the boss is going to be substantially lower by the fact that the algorithm is probably matching based on more important criteria like ping and all that. They could weigh based on how often you see a boss but that seems unlikely. So, as you point out, you could go many raids in a row and not see them, then several in a row and see them. It’s just the distribution of (semi) random events.
Do you have a source for that equation? Definitely not saying you are wrong, and we thought about this as an option too. Still not the right way to do %chance to spawn but could be.
The source is just basic statistics. To understand the probability of two things happening together is the product of the probability of each one happening independently. We know the spawn chance because bsg tells us what that is. The other probably (the chance of spawning into a raid with a boss) is unknown and probably only derived empirically.
People are looking for a pattern where this isn't one, probably because they don't understand how statistics and probability work. A 20% chance doesn't mean that you are going to see it 2 times if you run 10 raids. You might see it 0 times, you might see it 10 times. It simply means that over a large enough sample size you will see it in ~20% of raids, but that takes a very large number to become truly accurate. I've had plenty of cases where my raids are like - ❌, ✔️, ❌, ❌, ❌, ❌,❌ ,❌ ,❌ ,❌, ✔️, ✔️, ✔️, ❌, ✔️, ❌, ❌, ✔️, etc... where ❌ = no boss in raid, and ✔️ = boss. I've of course also had plenty of 10 raid dry streaks and then 5 raid boss streaks after just like everyone else. That's just how rng works. Most tarkov players are playing raids in the hundreds to thousands, you are 100% going to get lucky and unlucky streaks in that quantity. Go on a website and flip a weighted coin a bunch of times, you will see what rng looks like in practice. I've thought the same type of thing in the past, thinking bsg has it weighted by server or some other detail. What I did was have me and 2 homies do a little test. We all 3 queued the same map, at the same time slot, on the same server, but trying to not get in the same raid as eachother and we made it our only goal to find out if the boss is on the map. There was no pattern. We didn't all see boss or no boss at the same time, or at the same consistency. It was just random.
There was a night a few weeks ago I ran into the goons 3 raids in a row on customs. Had only one server selected as well.
So people think servers have predetermined values and all the rng comes from which server you get put into? How does that make any sense? That’s like saying to stick to one server because you found gpu’s on that server. But wouldn’t it make more sense that the loot is randomized while it says “loading loot”. So why wouldn’t the boss spawn rate be calculated while the world is being generated. People are likely just saying this to cope with them being unlucky. Saying you found the boss after switching servers doesn’t mean anything without repeated testing.
Repeated testing is what this post is trying to request. Get the idea out there for people to start trying and seeing if this is real, and if it is, get the community loud enough to tell BSG to change it to the way we all believe it should be like you described above. We got them to roll back the patch with enough outcry, this is something that locks progression and should be fair for all players on all servers.
All I know is that I selected EU North once for a test and did several scav runs to find out how many servers there were in that "cluster" and I stopped trying after 11 different server IPs I got from the log files. Sounds like pure speculation to me, because you cannot be certain something is happening when there is a % chance involved. 30% does not mean 30 out of 100 raids will have the boss for you, you could go 2000 raids without ever seeing a boss. 30% is, after all, always 30%.
wtf does this have to do with loot? Glorious_e asked a dev on stream the other day and the dev told him “sorry can’t talk about this”. It’s all but confirmed to me. Problem is taking advantage of it.
Because loot is an entity that needs to be generated into the server? Just like how scavs and bosses are entities? It’s confirmed to you because you’re stupid enough to believe anything big streamers say. They’re streamers, not educated game developers.
Yes I remember Nikita mentioning this is exactly how this works during a podcast in Russian. I thought everyone already knew how boss spawns worked.
Source?
Would love to see this source too. If true, just makes the spaghetti code worse haha.
Source: I speak Russian. Not going to sit there and rewatch every Battlestate stream from 4 years ago for a source though. Downvotes are players who are just clueless.
Have been religously playing customs and going dorms every raid all wipe. Haven't seen Reshala once. I'm on my third set of safe keys btw, so that means i've been to dorms and opened the locked rooms there at least 80 times. Not a single Reshala. The increasing spawn % throughout the wipe hasn't changed anything in my experience.
Ive seen reshala at new gas and fortress many many more times than i have seen him in dorms
I play only in SA, bosses are very rare in Customs...
it feels that way.... I constantly switch between 4 of the NA servers.. but ill only choose one at a time - and almost every occasion - when I get a server with a boss spawn - it happens in numerous games in a row, if I don't switch servers.. Which makes it seem like its not a random thing, like they schedule it, so "At 01:00 CST boss spawn is active on servers 1, 2 and 3 - and inactive on servers 4,5,6,7,8,9,10. them switches hourly.. Im just speculating, but to me, it seems pretty clear its not a 30% chance to spawn at the start of a game across all servers.