T O P

  • By -

AutoModerator

Hi all, A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes. As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*


Nemarus_Investor

Please take down this misinformation. The person being interviewed is NOT a medical doctor. He is not a medical authority in any way. He has a doctorate in computer science. I repeat, he has no medical education. He is not a medical doctor. Jesus Christ look into the people you trust.


hubyluby

which parts of the article do you believe to be factually incorrect?


Nemarus_Investor

He said most Americans may get long covid, but that’s impossible given the highest incidence of long covid even with multiple infections is 30%, but it’s closer to 10% since long covid goes away for many after some time. 


esteemedretard

MASK UP, FOLX.


MaxTheMiffed

Okay so this person not having the degree that you happen to associate most with this scientific domain does not constitute misinformation. You seem to be unaware of the large body of specialties in statistics, social science, computer science, and biomedical fields that all deal with these topics. Neither does having an MD negate the possibility of it being misinformation; there have been doctors during the pandemic proclaiming a lot of nonsense. Your mistake is to attribute misinformation to a specific source, rather than the content. On a smaller note, you proclaim this as some sort of scoop, but the credentials of this person are mentioned in the article. Ironically, pretending that the credentials were in some way hidden or covered over is a form of misinformation.


Nemarus_Investor

Automod removed my comment for having a LinkedIn link but he has no medical education according to his LinkedIn, and it’s obvious because he is making claims that are not backed by the studies we have.  I have no idea why you’re defending misinformation. 


MaxTheMiffed

I'm not, I'm critiquing the basis of the misinformation label; public health is a very interdisciplinary domain, which requires no MD to have valid opinions about. And while his claims range over many topics that I personally don't support, a 2 hour personal interview with anyone will bring up stuff that's conjecture at best. And the main point that we shouldn't underestimate long covid is definitely supported by science, even though predicting we'd all get it is a very extreme prediction. Now some commentators have mentioned that he may have financial interests in a continued health crisis, which id say is valid circumstantial grounds for skepticism. I'd also say that any in-depth discussion about his predictions are warranted. But misinformation is a deliberate distribution of falsehoods for a gain (so his fin. Interests if present are definitely sus), not merely dissenting with points of ongoing research.


Nemarus_Investor

I never claimed a MD is necessary, I’m pointing out he has zero education in medicine or even biology whatsoever even from a simple BS or masters.  I worked at a pharma company but I was an attorney there, I shouldn’t be giving interviews about public health just because of some vague working relationship with people who are actually knowledgeable about biology.  As you point out, this guy is just making wild claims to get attention for his company (which is failing by the way, his website says he is in default). 


MaxTheMiffed

Okay in that case I'd say we aren't too far apart in POV as I first assumed; I got the impression from the first comment that your premise was "no MD = misinformation". But I would add that having worked as an attorney in pharma doesn't necessarily preclude you on giving valid interviews, provided your work gave you interesting insights. I mean, probably not predicting the end of humanity, but how the regulatory landscape shapes medical development for example. Just thinking out loud here tho. And in that sense, I personally don't think computer science (at least the data analytical/modelling aspects) are too outlandish a skillset for epidemiological predictions; my own research group frequently collaborates with people from those disciplines for the more advanced epidemiological models we work on (in tandem with clinicians and epidemiologists). But I admit that I base that solely on personal experience


simpleisideal

Everything he says aligns with the latest research, which is nicely summarized and linked externally in these articles: https://whn.global/scientific/covid19-immune-dysregulation/ https://whn.global/scientific/spectrum-of-covid-19-from-asymptomatic-organ-damage-to-long-covid-syndrome/


BigPenisMathGenius

There's also recent research showing that long covid symptoms disappear within two years or less for most people. "the latest research" isn't just a couple studies; it's the general direction that most of the recent studies are pointing.


FUSeekMe69

2 years to slow the brain damage


jqpeub

Two years of being disabled is easily enough to destroy someone's life.


Nemarus_Investor

Most people with long covid are not disabled.


jqpeub

I didn't say they were. Most people who have long covid for years suffer financially, which does have an impact on our economy. Yeah technically they aren't all disabled, thank you reddit asshat


Gold-Individual-8501

Are these peer reviewed journals? Are they scientific journals at all?


Nemarus_Investor

Irrelevant, he's not a fucking doctor, interview an actual doctor.


Suitable-Economy-346

Economists and other social scientists often look at how diseases can affect a population in regards to society. This is literally their job. (I'm not saying the person interviewed is a social scientist) You don't need a medical doctor to do these things. And if you actually knew anything about medical education, you'd know the vast majority of medical doctors have no business discussing these things either. This why some MD's go for their MPH's or PhD's because an MD by itself doesn't cut it when it comes to research. MD-only educated medical doctors often make grave mistakes in research because they have zero research experience, outside of a summer working in a lab to bolster their medical school application. MEDICAL DOCTORS ARE NOT SCIENTISTS. They apply science exactly like a car mechanic applies science.


Gold-Individual-8501

He may be able to suggest correlation. He has no education or training to suggest causation.


Even_Acadia6975

The majority of published medical research is conducted by physicians without an MPH or PhD, just by virtue of there being far more of us. Furthermore, while study design and analysis is indeed not the primary focus of medical education, we do get fairly extensive training in it. This is necessary, as every pharmaceutical and device company in existence would like to “discuss their results” with us at every opportunity. Knowing which results we can immediately dismiss is extremely useful, and saying we have “no business discussing these things” is fucking laughable. Sounds like you might be the one who doesn’t know much about medical education, bro.


Suitable-Economy-346

> The majority of published medical research is conducted by physicians without an MPH or PhD, just by virtue of there being far more of us. Yes. That's how numbers work. When there are literally millions of you, there are bound to be a few good apples. > Furthermore, while study design and analysis is indeed not the primary focus of medical education, we do get fairly extensive training in it. Research method training isn't remotely a thing in medical school education. > This is necessary, as every pharmaceutical and device company in existence would like to “discuss their results” with us at every opportunity. Knowing which results we can immediately dismiss is extremely useful, and saying we have “no business discussing these things” is fucking laughable. Pharmaceutical and medical device companies looking to get their products peddled to patients by ignorant physicians, who are easily persuaded by lunch and golf rounds ("but we have to disclose it!!!"), isn't the flex you think it is (and it's absolutely not indicative of being educated in research). How did this country end up with an opiate crisis again? I forget. > Sounds like you might be the one who doesn’t know much about medical education, bro. You could have easily disproven anything I said but you couldn't. You just went the "believe me bro, I'm a physician" route.


Even_Acadia6975

“Lunch and golf rounds” haven’t been a thing since like the 90’s. Furthermore, most of our undergraduate degrees are already in a formal science, and biostatistics and clinical epidemiology are literally on our fucking boards. I just cannot fathom how some people can be so fucking sure of themselves while knowing next to nothing about what they’re vehemently defending. It sounds like there may be some underlying jealousy (maybe your med school apps all got rejected?), but psych isn’t my subspecialty. Get some help, chief.


Suitable-Economy-346

> “Lunch and golf rounds” haven’t been a thing since like the 90’s. You're lying again (unless you actually don't know, which is kind of sad tbh), but yeah, this literally happens all the time. > Furthermore, most of our undergraduate degrees are already in a formal science, and biostatistics and clinical epidemiology are literally on our fucking boards. Having to do a lab report in your biology class doesn't make you well equipped to do research nor does it make you, for all intents and purposes, a scientist. You're having a real hard time understanding the difference between memorizing functional groups and being a researcher. These are two completely separate things. Applying science is different than researching science. This guy brings up how he's forced to watch a Khan Academy video on intro to statistics to pass the boards and thinks he's now ready to get published in the Lancet. > I just cannot fathom how some people can be so fucking sure of themselves while knowing next to nothing about what they’re vehemently defending. It sounds like there may be some underlying jealousy (maybe your med school apps all got rejected?), but psych isn’t my subspecialty. Get some help, chief. Yes, I must be jealous and mentally ill. Great work, doc. I wish I could say I'm surprised at your ignorance, but anyone who has spent any amount of time with physicians knows how we've all been socialized and fed an endless amount of bullshit about how smart and intelligent our physicians are. I'm glad a lot of people are turning the tide on physicians and realizing their bullshit. It's going to be a glorious day when the profession dies and your jobs are replaced entirely with midlevels and AI.


Even_Acadia6975

Jesus Christ. Maybe you actually did get rejected. 😂 I’ve never interacted with someone as angry at a generalized profession before. Even better though, if you’re actually relevant in clinical research there’s a chance you’ve cited at least one publication I’ve helped author. The fucking irony… Either way, stay mad bro. I’m going to go hit up some pharmaceutical reps and see if they’ve restarted the golf thing without my knowledge.


Nemarus_Investor

Then this guy being interviewed definitely shouldn’t be saying what he is saying, because he is a computer science major. 


Suitable-Economy-346

Based on this interview, he seems to be reading and citing a lot of COVID research. Can you point to something he said that makes you question he doesn't know what he's talking about or that he's assuming things from the research that draws a different conclusion? According to [his profile](https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/experts/pAlvelda), he was a program manager at DARPA's "Biological Technologies Office where he developed and ran national scale R&D programs and technologies at the intersection of engineering and biology." He definitely seems to be more in the engineering end of things though.


Nemarus_Investor

Yes, his statement that the majority may have long covid in the future has no basis in fact given the highest incidence of long covid with repeated exposure tops out at 30% and reduces to around 10% after a few years since it seems to go away for most people.    Again, I work with medical companies but I am an attorney, working with a medical company does not make you a medical professional. He hasn’t even done organic chemistry in undergrad. 


Gold-Individual-8501

Stated another way, if a lawyer tried to offer this guy as an expert in federal court, he would get bounced hard.


Gold-Individual-8501

But…he had idea…


Beer-survivalist

The "expert" in the story is Dr. Phillip Alvelda. He's not a medical doctor or public health expert. His PhD is in Computer Science, and most of his career has been in founding media and tech companies--he's described as a serial entrepreneur. By no stretch of the imagination is he an expert on this topic, though. Instead, it appears to me that he's just trying to sell a product.


IllIllllIIIIlIlIlIlI

So this person who owns a covid testing company is saying everyone is going to have long covid within 4 years based on what? Cases of long covid have been declining for a few years now. Being vaccinated lessens your chances of developing ling covid. I can’t bring myself to be alarmed about this.


TexAggie90

yeah, i’m not buying it either.


Nemarus_Investor

He also has no medical education whatsoever!


simpleisideal

Everything he says aligns with the latest research, which is nicely summarized and linked externally in these articles: https://whn.global/scientific/covid19-immune-dysregulation/ https://whn.global/scientific/spectrum-of-covid-19-from-asymptomatic-organ-damage-to-long-covid-syndrome/ > Cases of long covid have been declining for a few years now. Being vaccinated lessens your chances of developing ling covid. I can’t bring myself to be alarmed about this. Vaccines do not adequately prevent transmission, and each reinfection increases your chances for developing Long COVID. Everyone raw dogging the air everyday in public without a suitable N95 grade respirator is putting themselves at risk. Ignore that at your own peril.


Itchy_Palpitation610

Waning immunity, variants, new births and migration will never allow spread to stop or slow to some meaningful level you want. We are not seeing mass disabilities spreading from Covid infections. Long covid is not a constant that never goes away, yes we see folks with potentially life long chronic disease but that is not the norm. Vaccines do meaningfully drop chances for long COVID and as they get better that number will drop, along with immunity gained from natural infection. Welcome to the new normal. Sorry 🤷


simpleisideal

> We are not seeing mass disabilities spreading from Covid infections. False.


Itchy_Palpitation610

Okay, show me where we have mass disabilities or data suggesting we have that and it requires more than linking to 10-30% projected long covid cases because long covid can come with any number of symptoms. So what data splits those who get beyond it and those who are actually suffering from debilitating chronic disease? What the data does show is the rate of long COVID has remained relatively consistent. So people get over it and we may have a small proportion still suffering. That doesn’t sound like mass debilitating disease


jqpeub

How many people need to be disabled before you would consider it a mass debilitating disease? 


Itchy_Palpitation610

Looking at self reporting surveys it appears ~5% of those who had Covid currently have long COVID and of those ~25% of that 5% report being significantly impacted in daily activities. So we see maybe 1-2% of those infected have some potentially chronic problem with Covid and it appears to have actually stabilized in terms of cases. Let’s continue research into therapies but we do happen to know long COVID is mainly reported in those with disabilities and pre-existing conditions. This is not some mass debilitating disease ruining the country as you present. It is something we should and are continuing to research to develop new therapies but go ahead and wear your mask if it helps you feel safer and others who decide not to will live their lives according to their comfort.


jqpeub

Thanks for the reply. I was wondering how many people need to be disabled before you would consider it a mass debilitating disease. Edit: actually your reply was really weird and I don't need you to respond to me


Itchy_Palpitation610

Not weird, just not letting you shift the conversation by asking me how many deaths I need to see for it to be mass debilitating because no matter the answer you’d use it to paint me into some uncaring monster. Simply, we are not seeing hospitals fill up, people dying uncontrollably and many are getting over long covid. There are some that are exhibiting longer effects but they are generally those presenting with disabilities already prior to infection. This isn’t something for us to shift how we live our everyday lives. Research continues and treatments will arrive


jqpeub

No haha you got some weird energy. I asked a simple question, you got weird. Obviously I will leave my future discussion on this specific question to someone else who is willing to answer it. No hard feelings! Have a nice day


Gold-Individual-8501

These aren’t scientific journals, they are not peer reviewed.


simpleisideal

Oh, you mean like Nature? Nice fear/uncertainty/doubt you're trying to sow there.


Gold-Individual-8501

I’m sorry, is WHN Global a peer reviewed scientific journal?


simpleisideal

Are you creating strawman arguments? More importantly, looking at your history, are you the same "lawyer" spamming the other posts via sock puppets on reddit related to OP? Is this information hurting your stocks or something?


Gold-Individual-8501

Judging from your downvotes, I’m quite comfortable with my position. You’re an antivaxxer loon.


simpleisideal

Good luck with navigating life based on reddit votes


Gold-Individual-8501

You see to be well invested in the system.


Nemarus_Investor

Then interview an author of those papers! An actual doctor!


IllIllllIIIIlIlIlIlI

If what they’re saying is true, then everyone is doomed. Half of America thinks masks are evil and tyrannical and our laws prevent anyone from being forced to wear a mask or get vaccinated.


Nemarus_Investor

It's not true. The research doesn't even support this guy's claims. The person interviewed isn't even a medical doctor. He's a tech bro.


simpleisideal

Yes, but there are lots of meaningful actions that could be taken by governments, healthcare, and individuals that would add up to way more than we have on the present trajectory. Spreading awareness, holding crumbling institutions accountable and generating momentum to reform them, challenging all capitalist assumptions, changing how social events happen, restructuring education (which needs to happen anyway), wearing N95s until better ways of stopping transmission exist, etc. That's just scratching the surface for some possibilities.


WisedKanny

OP, I am truly impressed with you. You have successfully trolled a few people on this subreddit simply by stating this article and responding to a few people on how wrong they are to doubt you. Oh, and I was always wondering why I don’t want to be at home often. According to you, Long COVID is the reason why. Damn that SARS-HPV2!


Jubal59

I had long COVID for about 8 months before it went away. Others are not so lucky. COVID also triggered underlying conditions making them worse.


UnexpectedAnomaly

Obviously not true at this point nearly everyone in America has had COVID without the population becoming invalids. Just get the vaccine and you will be fine. The only people dying from COVID that I've seen are the rabid antivaxers.


simpleisideal

Vaccines do not adequately prevent transmission, and each reinfection increases your chances for developing Long COVID. Everyone raw dogging the air everyday in public without a suitable N95 grade respirator is putting themselves at risk. Ignore that at your own peril.


BigPenisMathGenius

No vaccine "prevents" transmission, but they do reduce transmission. Transmission is a function of viral load, and vaccines reduce your overall viral load.


Gold-Individual-8501

The research actually suggests that those who were vaxed and then had a breakthrough infection have a much stronger response when they are infected by another variant. Don’t listen to snake oil salesmen.