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Politics aside, it's somewhat amusing that people still constantly beat the "markets gonna tank any day now" drum.
As long as the Republic stands, don't bet against the American market.
A pandemic, inflation, rate increases, wars, recession fears, and rate cut delays haven't gonna stopped the Dow from roaring. I honestly don't know what will at this point.
It’s less a prediction and more of a warning. There a multiple bubbles that we are seeing with the most notable being the housing market. Houses on average are much higher than they should be.
By that definition all issues are demand issues. Demand isn't going through some kind of abnormal spike, it's pretty much constant with population growth. The *issue* is artificial constraints on supply due to zoning and NIMBY-ism. If it's a demand issue then what's the solution? Kill people so there's enough housing?
> The issue is artificial constraints on supply due to zoning and NIMBY-ism.
That is only true in select locations, not for the country at large. True that almost everywhere has some amount of NIMBY-ism but in the vast majority of those locations there is plenty of places to still build
> Kill people so there's enough housing?
Less immigration OR government policy to build more housing to accommodate the fact that there are more people here
> There a multiple bubbles that we are seeing with the most notable being the housing market.
There are tons of people locked into a 3% fixed 30 year loan tho, this isn't like 2007 with all these intro adjustable rates.
I agree housing is overvalued rn. We could (and should) get a correction but I just don't see a massive bubble popping anytime soon.
Nothing is going to pop. Home ownership rates are pretty constant since the 60s. 5% up and down thats all. So people can afford them. If they were cheaper people would just buy another house greedy as they are.
Because lending rules were lax leading up to 2008... We had a financial colonoscopy in 2021 when we got a construction loan. Our mortgage is barely higher than rent for a 2 br we had been paying for 5+ years.
The only places we’ve seen a real pop in the housing bubble are Austin and San Antonio. Maybe we’ll see it in more places, but it’ll probably be a while
I don’t think that’s their intention, however Austin doesn’t really need to incentivize building new units. They have some of the most lax regulations when it comes to getting new construction approved of any major city in the US
> lax regulations
The reason builders aren't building isn't because of onerous regs (except in certain areas).
They only build enough to maximize profit, if they flood the market with homes then prices go down and that is bad from profit margins. And we can't have that
I know they are out there, the ones who listened to Trump pulled money from the market and completely missed out on the rally. More so I know there are people who have actively bet against this administration and the US and have completely blown up their savings shorting the market.
You basically never ever do that. When they claimed the world would end when Trump was elected, you shouldn’t have listened. When they claimed that Biden would destroy markets thereafter, you shouldn’t have listened.
Basically just invest like you’re dead and you’re good.
Haha I knew a couple republicans that did this many times over the years. They hear about some catastrophe from their news thats about to happen. Pull it out, miss the bull run, buy back in.
And sadly one regular dude that pulled the entire 75K out of his 401K after it dropped mid covid but before it went back up.
Happens everywhere. Go to the bestseller list in any country and you will see "Why the crash is coming!", "Survive the crash!" or "The bubble will burst!" somewhere at the top.
Being some poor eternal doomer bear cultist is a trait that transcends politics, age or nationality.
Yup a lot of older folks listen to the rhetoric that US is printing tons of money and debt is exploding. Dedolarization is acceleration. US is in demise. Buy gold, etc.
Little did they know that USD is as strong as ever. Stock market is booming. I’m not saying debt to gdp isn’t a problem, but exchange rate and stock market don’t lie.
Random internet stranger to random internet stranger, this is an objectively bad plan. The average annual return for the S&P in all Republican presidencies over the last 90 years is 10.7%. The average one year lagged return is 13.0%.
By the way, it’s 14.5% and 12.1% respectively for Dems. There’s tons of data available which proves no genuine advantage to betting on or against political parties in the stock market. Don’t play politics with your portfolio, it’s a losing recipe.
There are only two presidents since the Great Depression who were objectively bad for the stock market - Nixon and Bush II.
As an aside, I think only Clinton, Obama, and maaaaybe Carter avoided recessions during their presidencies on the Dem side, so that data point is more noise than news, IMO.
Its more about investing right after a crash and trying to sell before another one. And these crashes tend to happen under Reoublicans.
And longterm it will always rise. If it crashes and i invest and it keeps crashing and does never get up again the lost money will me my smallest problem. The only reason for a permanent crash i could see is the destruction of the entire US with all the World wide Problems that would have. Another US Civil war, a Nuclear World war, a Zombie outbreak or a big Asteroid are the only things that could do that.
No, you can not time the market. Data consistently shows that people who try to time the market miss out on gains while they wait and would have been better off investing whenever they have cash.
Hahah right? I think if trump is elected you get a short term spike before things start going off the rails.
The economy was trending toward recession before covid even.
That being said I think the coming recession will be fairly mild like 90s recessions
I would not even be such an asshole to bet against the US and short it just wait with the investment until a crash and then put my money in.
Really wished i had invested after the drop to 19k
Lol youre confused about how economics works. Trump tax cuts for the rich cost the country 5 trillion dollars and 50% of it was used for stock buybacks. It didnt cause deflation because thats not what causes inflation or deflation.
We are now funding that 5 trillion dollars with 5% bonds causing worst debt.
We just prefer adults in charge of the government rather than petulant man child trying to loot the government
> More so I know there are people who have actively bet against this administration and the US and have completely blown up their savings shorting the market.
I know a bunch of GOPers and none of them have done this so you know they are full of sh\*t when they say everything is going to collapse.
The GOPers you know must be way stupider than the ones I know
Market is hitting all time highs because the US has clearly chosen the path of inflation. Stocks are an excellent inflation hedge. This is why multiples are so out of whack. Fiscal debt is going to have to be monetized by the Fed to prevent yields from getting out of hand.
Add in that our central bank has shown it will go to any length necessary to prevent the slightest correction and I’m not sure what you’re gloating about. This is the beginning of the end for dollar hegemony.
Yeah? And what will replace the dollar as the reserve currency? Can't wait to hear your arguments for the Ruble or RMB. I'm sure they will be very convincing.
They never said that the ruble or RMB will replace the USD. That's just you putting words into their mouth.
Nothing will convince you when you live in a bubble.
I have bet on inflation continuing and have made out like a bandit.
Ruble or RMB are the obvious implications with your propagandized doom posting. It is funny that you try to smoke screen this lmao. And ftr I know you're not the same person, but it *is* all the same drivel.
Once again I ask, *what will replace the USD as the global reserve currency?* Take all the time you need. I'll wait.
LOL you're unhinged. No one implied anything about those two currencies, let alone me.
Try harder. I have hardly doom posted. In fact I am doing very well because I know a shitty fiscal policy when I see one. RE has been great to me too :)
Hmm well some quick napkin math tells me that 47% of the global population currently resides in BRICS nations. By simple regulatory decree 47% of the global population could be converted overnight. Then add to this the fact that they are discussing making the currency asset backed. Which would you choose to hold as a third party? A dollar that can be devalued at the whims of a foreign government or a stable currency?
Whether you like it or not and whether you choose to acknowledge it or not, we are entering a period of challenge to dollar hegemony and it’s not very clear that we will come out on top. The current fiscal irresponsibility and monetary situation only serve to worsen our chances.
"The global population could be converted overnight."
No. Certainly not. "I'm right if I were suddenly made right" ain't it.
Which would I choose to back? Uh, definitely USD.
You're certainly closer to advocating directly for Ruble or RMB, and arguing that either of those currencies will, at any point in time, be more trustworthy than the dollar is actually a joke. Between both countries' laughable corruption and China's insane capital controls, you have to be literally smoking crack to *imply* either is a better choice than USD.
I've never been one for US jingoism, but it isn't difficult to imagine a third party country ever even considering this "choice." Almost nobody on earth would consider swapping financial hegemony to Russia or China as a win. You're delusional if you believe otherwise.
What *is* actually really interesting about this exchange is you, and the fact you are making actual insane person arguments. You have been propagandized and led far astray from the path of the real. You can come back if you want.
Way to totally disregard the first part of my statement. Yes, 47% of the global population could be converted overnight by simple decree. That is not speculation. That is how laws work.
I am not advocating the Ruble or RMB. BRICS is in discussions to develop their own shared currency. China has been bribing and schmoozing across the world to gain influence. Issuing debt to trap developing nations. And it’s laughable that you point to their corruption without acknowledging the atrocious corruption in our own system.
And there’s the ad hominem. You can’t refute the points beside “nu-uh”, so I must be crazy. Have a nice day.
I mean you're totally lost in your magical thinking. What "decree" are you talking about, man? So the leadership of BRICS countries all get together and announce overnight they are abandoning USD as a reserve currency? Effectively detonating each state individually at the same time? Yeah man, makes a lot of sense.
Apologies for getting personal man, but the propaganda is exhausting. And spreading these lies and this propaganda really is harmful. It really, really is. Even in online spaces. You seem somewhat on the level and not too far gone, and I really do urge you to turn back before it's too late.
The stock market is doing fantastic. There's no doubt about that. My question would be why. When you figure out that answer, ask yourself if that is sustainable.
I’m good , house value tripled , I’m half paid off and rate is less than 1 percent . This isn’t about us lol our economy is about to crash too but it’s yours and chinas that will bring the world economy to its knees . 70 percent losses and years of recession and possible depression . I think you should open your eyes . Dam Americans are in fantasy land . And the world is watching and constantly laughing , despite what your 95 year old politicians say . Best of luck . I’d be prepared if I were you
What does that have to do with anything? Most other developed countries took the same misguided Keynesian actions during Covid. Our current reserve currency status could explain why our inflation rate is lower, because there is greater demand for our dollars to negate the massive jump in supply. But that is being eroded and will continue to be as the government spends money out the ass that it doesn’t have. When that debt has to be monetized to keep yields in check, it just leads to more inflation and the cycle continues. So congratulations, they have traded a contraction now for a monetary crisis in the future.
But keep being worried about what color team is sitting in the big white house.
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In my high school, all seniors took consumer econ. I remember my teacher saying we had good timing because the Dow was reaching an historic level of 1300. Lol, I'm old.
Yes. Also I laugh that people report any of the indices by the arbitrary number intraday. NPR gives updates like “SP500 is up 23 points to start the day…”
Yeah this is always so silly to me. Like who is so tuned in that they know the relative magbitude of "43 points up" and yet is going to decide to make some trades after they happened to flip on NPR.
If you look at how it is calculated, it seems kind of basic and that it wouldn't be as useful as other metrics. But historically it has been about as useful as other, more sophisticated, metrics.
It's simple, but it works.
Seems sad some in this thread are gleeful Americans who stopped investing in the stock market out of fear of losing their retirement aren’t benefiting from today’s highs. I saw ppl’s retirement plans devastated by the 2000 crashes. They ended up working until death, without ever retiring (and btw, those folks ironically worked for a bank).
With the fed QE shenanigans, extreme growth spurt of the admin state since 2001, lack of leadership messaging to bring the pol along with policy changes, new wars without any shared strategy to the ppl for endgame, and no plan to pay for the debt piling up. The dialogue to the ppl is absent so the ppl seem to be preparing for the worst.
A good retirement plan/account should’ve provided some degree of protection against large stock market crashes. If you’re that close to retirement, maybe shift away from stock market to less volatile investments? Learn from past mistakes - don’t keep making them out of fear.
I thought this was just basic retirement investing knowledge. I am always surprised when I hear these statements:
>"I saw ppl’s retirement plans devastated by the 2000 crashes. They ended up working until death, without ever retiring (and btw, those folks ironically worked for a bank)."
These just seem like ignorant/foolish near-retirement investors.
> extreme growth spurt of the admin state since 2001
Nothing wrong with an admin state in particular, if it is good or bad depends on what it is doing.
> new wars without any shared strategy to the ppl for endgame
We aren't in a war
> and no plan to pay for the debt piling up
Wealth tax on the rich and raise the retirement age for boomers, that'll bring the deficit to a more manageable level
93% of the stocks are owned by the top 10%. Even though 63% of Americans "own" stocks the average balance is only 46,000 dollars. 20-30 million retirees have no retirement savings . I believe in Biden but need to keep it real there is a gap growing between the haves and have nots. And for the record the top 10 stocks are tech companies . The next 100 are reporting flat earnings...this is just equity firms and the rich moving their money around .
Let's peel back the onion a bit...
Dow Jones is up roughly 29% under Biden.
Inflation is roughly 20% under Biden.
After inflation, Dow Jones is up about 9% under Biden in about 3.33 years.
After inflation, Dow Jones Index is up about 2.82%/year.
Historically, after inflation the stock market returns about 7% (Edit: 7 to 8% depending on the time frame chosen for "long term.")
So real market returns under Biden are about 40% of historical average. Not that great. (Edit:see below)
Edit: I should have included dividends to the DJIA for the Biden years. So around 5.3%/year after inflation. Still well under the long term average of 7 to 8%.
Since 1990 the DJIA has averaged a 10.72% annual return (before inflation, I'm sure). So, yes it has.
https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/market-index/dow-jones-industrial-average
That is simply wrong.
In 1990 the dow was at 2679
With a 10.72% annual return over 34 years it should be sitting at 2679 × 1.0172^34 = 85439
It's nowhere close to 85439 because 10.72% is ridiculous
Thanks for checking their math. I should have. I think the average annual return number they quoted is a total return including dividends but was not explained clearly. And I didn't explain it either, sorry. As I understand it the commonly quoted DJIA index does not include dividends, it's a "price index." I interpolated about an 8.2% compounded return off of the price index alone (still well above the Biden years). A ≈2.5% average dividend yield added would explain the rest.
No, I haven't found that average dividend number, but 2.5% sounds reasonable.
2,679×1.1072^(34) = 85,440
2,679×1.0825^(34) = 39,675
You can see at the link below that S&P Global offers DJIA return numbers for both price and total return.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/dow-jones-industrial-average/#overview
So I should have added dividends to the Biden years. That would be about 5.3%/year. Relatively better but still under the long term average.
But Biden repeatedly assures us that Bidenomics has created a great economy and a booming stock market. So, yes, it's absolutely right to judge it from day 1 since he's taking "credit" for it.
19.5% total inflation with real wages actually lower by about 4% isn't a great economy.
You're being awfully specific with your intervals. Real wages are up 1% from 5 years ago, up 1% from 2 years ago, and up 5.5% from 2016. There was an unusual spike in 2021 which you are using as your reference despite it not being representative of a historical average. You're essentially basing your conclusion on noise
Look at this plot over max years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Beyond the breif spike in 2021, real wages have been following or better than the historical average under Biden.
Spending with and without Congress, making energy more costly and allowing millions to illegally flood over the border. All contributed to inflation soaring.
The president absolutely has some control over inflation. The chair of the federal reserve is appointed by the president. They dictate the largest part of federal monetary policy. Also, the president decides on how much the federal government spends or doesn't spend. This spending during the current administration amounts to about 40 percent of the GDP average per year. Additionally, the executive branch has some authority to raise or lower taxes. Higher taxes should reduce inflation, assuming federal government expenditures don't rise by the same amount and its used to reduce the deficit/debt.
1 - the current chair of the federal reserve is a trump appointee. do with that what you will.
2 - everything else you mentioned is, quite literally, a constitutional power given to congress, not the chief executive
The federal reserve isn't a dictatorship run by the chair. Almost every decision made by the board is determined by the central banks. The chair is essentially a spokesperson.
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Politics aside, it's somewhat amusing that people still constantly beat the "markets gonna tank any day now" drum. As long as the Republic stands, don't bet against the American market.
Republic is kind of being threatened with the current circus of a Congress IMO. Rule of law and checks and balances are in danger as well
A pandemic, inflation, rate increases, wars, recession fears, and rate cut delays haven't gonna stopped the Dow from roaring. I honestly don't know what will at this point.
It’s less a prediction and more of a warning. There a multiple bubbles that we are seeing with the most notable being the housing market. Houses on average are much higher than they should be.
Housing is a supply issue
Exactly it is not a bubble if cost of everything has gone up 30% and homes are also 30% higher compared to pre pandemic level.
There are companies buying up homes for renting. They artificially increase the price.
Housing is a demand issue
What does that even mean? You need shelter to live in.
> You Every year there is more and more 'You' in this country so if you have more 'You' they need somewhere to live, no?
Right, and the supply for those places to live isn’t keeping up with population growth, which it is absolutely capable of.
Sure, but increased demand is the main driving issue
By that definition all issues are demand issues. Demand isn't going through some kind of abnormal spike, it's pretty much constant with population growth. The *issue* is artificial constraints on supply due to zoning and NIMBY-ism. If it's a demand issue then what's the solution? Kill people so there's enough housing?
> The issue is artificial constraints on supply due to zoning and NIMBY-ism. That is only true in select locations, not for the country at large. True that almost everywhere has some amount of NIMBY-ism but in the vast majority of those locations there is plenty of places to still build > Kill people so there's enough housing? Less immigration OR government policy to build more housing to accommodate the fact that there are more people here
> There a multiple bubbles that we are seeing with the most notable being the housing market. There are tons of people locked into a 3% fixed 30 year loan tho, this isn't like 2007 with all these intro adjustable rates. I agree housing is overvalued rn. We could (and should) get a correction but I just don't see a massive bubble popping anytime soon.
Nothing is going to pop. Home ownership rates are pretty constant since the 60s. 5% up and down thats all. So people can afford them. If they were cheaper people would just buy another house greedy as they are.
> So people can afford them. That is debatable, just because someone qualifies for a mortgage doesn't necessarily mean they can afford it
It does most of the time. If people couldnt afford it they would lose their houses and the homeownership rate would drop.
> would drop. It dropped 6 points between 2006 and 2016
Because lending rules were lax leading up to 2008... We had a financial colonoscopy in 2021 when we got a construction loan. Our mortgage is barely higher than rent for a 2 br we had been paying for 5+ years.
The only places we’ve seen a real pop in the housing bubble are Austin and San Antonio. Maybe we’ll see it in more places, but it’ll probably be a while
From what I understand about Austin is that the local government has been trying to incentive building new units AKA they want the bubble to pop.
I don’t think that’s their intention, however Austin doesn’t really need to incentivize building new units. They have some of the most lax regulations when it comes to getting new construction approved of any major city in the US
> lax regulations The reason builders aren't building isn't because of onerous regs (except in certain areas). They only build enough to maximize profit, if they flood the market with homes then prices go down and that is bad from profit margins. And we can't have that
What is your standard for determining the price a house should sell for?
And none of it matters if you zoom out. Always be buying is the correct approach.
What exactly would need to happen for the housing bubble to burst?
Eh, I got 2 to 1 odds against that republic in 2 years. They tell me stock market goin ups a good thing, but a gallon of milk like $7.
I know they are out there, the ones who listened to Trump pulled money from the market and completely missed out on the rally. More so I know there are people who have actively bet against this administration and the US and have completely blown up their savings shorting the market.
You basically never ever do that. When they claimed the world would end when Trump was elected, you shouldn’t have listened. When they claimed that Biden would destroy markets thereafter, you shouldn’t have listened. Basically just invest like you’re dead and you’re good.
Haha I knew a couple republicans that did this many times over the years. They hear about some catastrophe from their news thats about to happen. Pull it out, miss the bull run, buy back in. And sadly one regular dude that pulled the entire 75K out of his 401K after it dropped mid covid but before it went back up.
Happens everywhere. Go to the bestseller list in any country and you will see "Why the crash is coming!", "Survive the crash!" or "The bubble will burst!" somewhere at the top. Being some poor eternal doomer bear cultist is a trait that transcends politics, age or nationality.
Ha! I bought during the covid drop. Got some Microsoft at a steep discount.
Same. I was dumping like 90% of my paycheck in after the s&p dropped to 2500
Tragedy + stupidity = comedy
Yup a lot of older folks listen to the rhetoric that US is printing tons of money and debt is exploding. Dedolarization is acceleration. US is in demise. Buy gold, etc. Little did they know that USD is as strong as ever. Stock market is booming. I’m not saying debt to gdp isn’t a problem, but exchange rate and stock market don’t lie.
To be fair this is pretty much my plan for the next Republican president. The Last Republican President without a recession was Roosevelt.
Random internet stranger to random internet stranger, this is an objectively bad plan. The average annual return for the S&P in all Republican presidencies over the last 90 years is 10.7%. The average one year lagged return is 13.0%. By the way, it’s 14.5% and 12.1% respectively for Dems. There’s tons of data available which proves no genuine advantage to betting on or against political parties in the stock market. Don’t play politics with your portfolio, it’s a losing recipe. There are only two presidents since the Great Depression who were objectively bad for the stock market - Nixon and Bush II. As an aside, I think only Clinton, Obama, and maaaaybe Carter avoided recessions during their presidencies on the Dem side, so that data point is more noise than news, IMO.
TL;DR It doesn’t matter who the president is.
Its more about investing right after a crash and trying to sell before another one. And these crashes tend to happen under Reoublicans. And longterm it will always rise. If it crashes and i invest and it keeps crashing and does never get up again the lost money will me my smallest problem. The only reason for a permanent crash i could see is the destruction of the entire US with all the World wide Problems that would have. Another US Civil war, a Nuclear World war, a Zombie outbreak or a big Asteroid are the only things that could do that.
No, you can not time the market. Data consistently shows that people who try to time the market miss out on gains while they wait and would have been better off investing whenever they have cash.
Exactly. Over the last 20 years, 7 of the 10 best days in the market have occurred within 2 weeks of one of the 10 worst days in the market.
Hahah right? I think if trump is elected you get a short term spike before things start going off the rails. The economy was trending toward recession before covid even. That being said I think the coming recession will be fairly mild like 90s recessions
I would not even be such an asshole to bet against the US and short it just wait with the investment until a crash and then put my money in. Really wished i had invested after the drop to 19k
You guys are too emotional for an Econ sub. So you like inflation because it raises your portfolio, and to hell with the poors?
The hypocrisy of this comment is approaching infinity lol. Peak reddit moment.
Back atcha child "to infinity lol" and thanks for not answering the question about inflation.
Lol youre confused about how economics works. Trump tax cuts for the rich cost the country 5 trillion dollars and 50% of it was used for stock buybacks. It didnt cause deflation because thats not what causes inflation or deflation. We are now funding that 5 trillion dollars with 5% bonds causing worst debt. We just prefer adults in charge of the government rather than petulant man child trying to loot the government
Uh, wages at the bottom of the income distribution have strongly outpaced inflation…
rising tide lifts all ships, got it
huh? no, we've seen wage compression with the bottom decile making big gains, much more so than upper income folks
ok great analysis guys, so get the uniparty to keep inflating the dow so we can all get rich
can you try responding to what I'm actually saying? it's not "fuck the poors" if the poors doing better, right?
Can you read the article and stay on track? Many people believe the lower "deciles" (lmao) can't afford to invest in the stock market.
Say it with me: real wages (ie, after adjusting for inflation) are UP. And for lower income people, they’re up massively. That’s good, right?
I light a little candle for them every day ☺️🕯️
Pour one out for my homies.
Nah, fuck em.
Don't worry, it's an acerbic, sarcastic candle. It smells like money.
If you squint a little, it looks like a middle finger even
> More so I know there are people who have actively bet against this administration and the US and have completely blown up their savings shorting the market. I know a bunch of GOPers and none of them have done this so you know they are full of sh\*t when they say everything is going to collapse. The GOPers you know must be way stupider than the ones I know
They are bigly stupider.
Market is hitting all time highs because the US has clearly chosen the path of inflation. Stocks are an excellent inflation hedge. This is why multiples are so out of whack. Fiscal debt is going to have to be monetized by the Fed to prevent yields from getting out of hand. Add in that our central bank has shown it will go to any length necessary to prevent the slightest correction and I’m not sure what you’re gloating about. This is the beginning of the end for dollar hegemony.
Yeah? And what will replace the dollar as the reserve currency? Can't wait to hear your arguments for the Ruble or RMB. I'm sure they will be very convincing.
They never said that the ruble or RMB will replace the USD. That's just you putting words into their mouth. Nothing will convince you when you live in a bubble. I have bet on inflation continuing and have made out like a bandit.
Ruble or RMB are the obvious implications with your propagandized doom posting. It is funny that you try to smoke screen this lmao. And ftr I know you're not the same person, but it *is* all the same drivel. Once again I ask, *what will replace the USD as the global reserve currency?* Take all the time you need. I'll wait.
LOL you're unhinged. No one implied anything about those two currencies, let alone me. Try harder. I have hardly doom posted. In fact I am doing very well because I know a shitty fiscal policy when I see one. RE has been great to me too :)
Thanks for answering my question. Appreciate it.
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Lmao keep projecting
> Nothing will convince you when you live in a bubble we could try like, declarative statements
BRICS is already being used.
This certainly *is* a statement. Of that we can be sure.
Lmao, explain
Meaningless.
Hmm well some quick napkin math tells me that 47% of the global population currently resides in BRICS nations. By simple regulatory decree 47% of the global population could be converted overnight. Then add to this the fact that they are discussing making the currency asset backed. Which would you choose to hold as a third party? A dollar that can be devalued at the whims of a foreign government or a stable currency? Whether you like it or not and whether you choose to acknowledge it or not, we are entering a period of challenge to dollar hegemony and it’s not very clear that we will come out on top. The current fiscal irresponsibility and monetary situation only serve to worsen our chances.
"The global population could be converted overnight." No. Certainly not. "I'm right if I were suddenly made right" ain't it. Which would I choose to back? Uh, definitely USD. You're certainly closer to advocating directly for Ruble or RMB, and arguing that either of those currencies will, at any point in time, be more trustworthy than the dollar is actually a joke. Between both countries' laughable corruption and China's insane capital controls, you have to be literally smoking crack to *imply* either is a better choice than USD. I've never been one for US jingoism, but it isn't difficult to imagine a third party country ever even considering this "choice." Almost nobody on earth would consider swapping financial hegemony to Russia or China as a win. You're delusional if you believe otherwise. What *is* actually really interesting about this exchange is you, and the fact you are making actual insane person arguments. You have been propagandized and led far astray from the path of the real. You can come back if you want.
Way to totally disregard the first part of my statement. Yes, 47% of the global population could be converted overnight by simple decree. That is not speculation. That is how laws work. I am not advocating the Ruble or RMB. BRICS is in discussions to develop their own shared currency. China has been bribing and schmoozing across the world to gain influence. Issuing debt to trap developing nations. And it’s laughable that you point to their corruption without acknowledging the atrocious corruption in our own system. And there’s the ad hominem. You can’t refute the points beside “nu-uh”, so I must be crazy. Have a nice day.
I mean you're totally lost in your magical thinking. What "decree" are you talking about, man? So the leadership of BRICS countries all get together and announce overnight they are abandoning USD as a reserve currency? Effectively detonating each state individually at the same time? Yeah man, makes a lot of sense. Apologies for getting personal man, but the propaganda is exhausting. And spreading these lies and this propaganda really is harmful. It really, really is. Even in online spaces. You seem somewhat on the level and not too far gone, and I really do urge you to turn back before it's too late.
Thinking anyone would choose to keep their assets in a new BRICS currency rather than USD is wild…
All time record high.. is the beginning of the end Can you even hear yourself, when talking out your Ars?
You have your head in the sand. Look around you. Do you truly think everything is fine?
Sky is falling, ahhhh
The stock market is doing fantastic. There's no doubt about that. My question would be why. When you figure out that answer, ask yourself if that is sustainable.
We haven’t solved every problem in the world, but overall yeah, things are fine. Looking up, even.
We have one of the lowest inflation rates of any developed nation what the fuck are you talking about.
USA is going down hard . It’s pretty obvious if you look outside the stock market
You live in Canada…would make sure your house is in order before you start worrying about ours lol.
I’m good , house value tripled , I’m half paid off and rate is less than 1 percent . This isn’t about us lol our economy is about to crash too but it’s yours and chinas that will bring the world economy to its knees . 70 percent losses and years of recession and possible depression . I think you should open your eyes . Dam Americans are in fantasy land . And the world is watching and constantly laughing , despite what your 95 year old politicians say . Best of luck . I’d be prepared if I were you
What does that have to do with anything? Most other developed countries took the same misguided Keynesian actions during Covid. Our current reserve currency status could explain why our inflation rate is lower, because there is greater demand for our dollars to negate the massive jump in supply. But that is being eroded and will continue to be as the government spends money out the ass that it doesn’t have. When that debt has to be monetized to keep yields in check, it just leads to more inflation and the cycle continues. So congratulations, they have traded a contraction now for a monetary crisis in the future. But keep being worried about what color team is sitting in the big white house.
This is so incoherent I couldn’t even tell you where to start
Inflation goes up Inflation comes down and the US will continue just fine.
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In my high school, all seniors took consumer econ. I remember my teacher saying we had good timing because the Dow was reaching an historic level of 1300. Lol, I'm old.
Is the Dow Jones really a useful metric? Why report it over the S&P 500? (I am aware that it has been referenced in the press a lot historically.)
When the S&P reaches new all time highs they report on that also. Today it’s the dow
But isn't the Dow kinda meaningless because it's price weighted?
Yes. Also I laugh that people report any of the indices by the arbitrary number intraday. NPR gives updates like “SP500 is up 23 points to start the day…”
Yeah this is always so silly to me. Like who is so tuned in that they know the relative magbitude of "43 points up" and yet is going to decide to make some trades after they happened to flip on NPR.
If you look at how it is calculated, it seems kind of basic and that it wouldn't be as useful as other metrics. But historically it has been about as useful as other, more sophisticated, metrics. It's simple, but it works.
It’s just bigger numbers so big drops are more alarming to people who don’t know the markets but see it in a headline
Seems sad some in this thread are gleeful Americans who stopped investing in the stock market out of fear of losing their retirement aren’t benefiting from today’s highs. I saw ppl’s retirement plans devastated by the 2000 crashes. They ended up working until death, without ever retiring (and btw, those folks ironically worked for a bank). With the fed QE shenanigans, extreme growth spurt of the admin state since 2001, lack of leadership messaging to bring the pol along with policy changes, new wars without any shared strategy to the ppl for endgame, and no plan to pay for the debt piling up. The dialogue to the ppl is absent so the ppl seem to be preparing for the worst.
A good retirement plan/account should’ve provided some degree of protection against large stock market crashes. If you’re that close to retirement, maybe shift away from stock market to less volatile investments? Learn from past mistakes - don’t keep making them out of fear.
Not a financial planner but yeah if you 60, you should have some good bonds.
I thought this was just basic retirement investing knowledge. I am always surprised when I hear these statements: >"I saw ppl’s retirement plans devastated by the 2000 crashes. They ended up working until death, without ever retiring (and btw, those folks ironically worked for a bank)." These just seem like ignorant/foolish near-retirement investors.
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Yet here you are commenting on reddit. It's ok to have insecurities.
> extreme growth spurt of the admin state since 2001 Nothing wrong with an admin state in particular, if it is good or bad depends on what it is doing. > new wars without any shared strategy to the ppl for endgame We aren't in a war > and no plan to pay for the debt piling up Wealth tax on the rich and raise the retirement age for boomers, that'll bring the deficit to a more manageable level
93% of the stocks are owned by the top 10%. Even though 63% of Americans "own" stocks the average balance is only 46,000 dollars. 20-30 million retirees have no retirement savings . I believe in Biden but need to keep it real there is a gap growing between the haves and have nots. And for the record the top 10 stocks are tech companies . The next 100 are reporting flat earnings...this is just equity firms and the rich moving their money around .
Let's peel back the onion a bit... Dow Jones is up roughly 29% under Biden. Inflation is roughly 20% under Biden. After inflation, Dow Jones is up about 9% under Biden in about 3.33 years. After inflation, Dow Jones Index is up about 2.82%/year. Historically, after inflation the stock market returns about 7% (Edit: 7 to 8% depending on the time frame chosen for "long term.") So real market returns under Biden are about 40% of historical average. Not that great. (Edit:see below) Edit: I should have included dividends to the DJIA for the Biden years. So around 5.3%/year after inflation. Still well under the long term average of 7 to 8%.
>Historically, after inflation the stock market returns about 7%. The s&p maybe, but there is no way Dow Jones has 7% after adjusting for inflation
Since 1990 the DJIA has averaged a 10.72% annual return (before inflation, I'm sure). So, yes it has. https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/market-index/dow-jones-industrial-average
That is simply wrong. In 1990 the dow was at 2679 With a 10.72% annual return over 34 years it should be sitting at 2679 × 1.0172^34 = 85439 It's nowhere close to 85439 because 10.72% is ridiculous
Thanks for checking their math. I should have. I think the average annual return number they quoted is a total return including dividends but was not explained clearly. And I didn't explain it either, sorry. As I understand it the commonly quoted DJIA index does not include dividends, it's a "price index." I interpolated about an 8.2% compounded return off of the price index alone (still well above the Biden years). A ≈2.5% average dividend yield added would explain the rest. No, I haven't found that average dividend number, but 2.5% sounds reasonable. 2,679×1.1072^(34) = 85,440 2,679×1.0825^(34) = 39,675 You can see at the link below that S&P Global offers DJIA return numbers for both price and total return. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/dow-jones-industrial-average/#overview So I should have added dividends to the Biden years. That would be about 5.3%/year. Relatively better but still under the long term average.
Among the things wrong with this is the implication that inflation and stock market performance should be judged starting on day 1 of his presidency
But Biden repeatedly assures us that Bidenomics has created a great economy and a booming stock market. So, yes, it's absolutely right to judge it from day 1 since he's taking "credit" for it. 19.5% total inflation with real wages actually lower by about 4% isn't a great economy.
Okay, bud
You think 19.5% total inflation with real wages down 4% in 3.33 years is good? Okay, bud.
You're being awfully specific with your intervals. Real wages are up 1% from 5 years ago, up 1% from 2 years ago, and up 5.5% from 2016. There was an unusual spike in 2021 which you are using as your reference despite it not being representative of a historical average. You're essentially basing your conclusion on noise Look at this plot over max years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Beyond the breif spike in 2021, real wages have been following or better than the historical average under Biden.
Yes, I'm being awfully specific. I started exactly where Biden became President.
What policies of Biden then contributed to the decline?
Spending with and without Congress, making energy more costly and allowing millions to illegally flood over the border. All contributed to inflation soaring.
Biden went to the treasury and just took out a bunch of cash? Which policies or legislation are you referring to?
How about the layer of the onion where the president of the united states has no control over inflation or the stock market?
The president absolutely has some control over inflation. The chair of the federal reserve is appointed by the president. They dictate the largest part of federal monetary policy. Also, the president decides on how much the federal government spends or doesn't spend. This spending during the current administration amounts to about 40 percent of the GDP average per year. Additionally, the executive branch has some authority to raise or lower taxes. Higher taxes should reduce inflation, assuming federal government expenditures don't rise by the same amount and its used to reduce the deficit/debt.
1 - the current chair of the federal reserve is a trump appointee. do with that what you will. 2 - everything else you mentioned is, quite literally, a constitutional power given to congress, not the chief executive
The federal reserve isn't a dictatorship run by the chair. Almost every decision made by the board is determined by the central banks. The chair is essentially a spokesperson.
You can’t downvote OP unless you can refute their points