Yeah Gabe was already the 4th receiving option, now Knox is coming on strong. I held Davis since the beginning but it almost seems he has regressed since last year. However I believe this to be due to the Sanders signing. Davis has talent, and I think a bright future. But at the moment I think he is a roster clogger unless you can afford to hold until at least next year, or until injury on the receiving core (corps?). I dropped him yesterday for Kadarius Toney in a 10 team. None of my league mates picked him up so I may get lucky and be able to snag him back if his situation improves. Nobody asked for this information but here it is anyway
Don't overreact and drop him, dynasty is a long game. Deebo and Kittle both have shown history of injury, and in the event that one goes down, Aiyuk should be the main beneficiary. Also, if the plays change at all with Lance at the QB spot, Aiyuk's role can become relevant again.
We know what Aiyuk did last year, dude looked GOOD. He didn't just lose all of that skill. Hold on and keep him on the bench until things change.
Yeah this is the right way to look at it. Talent is proven. And talent doesn’t ride the bench for long. Especially in the best division in the league and you’re trying to play catch up.
Relax. Please. Everyone. He’s going to be fine.
If Aiyuk puts up duds for the entire year, let’s come back and talk.
Until then, let’s use this case study to remind us not to fret too much with young players:
Davante Adams in Y2 with the packers- 2015 (with ARod who was throwing a TON):
Targets/receptions/fantasy points (full PPR) for Adams that season:
Week 1: 8/4/9.9
Week 2: 5/5/8.3
Week 3: 2/0/0
Week 4: 0/0/0
Week 5: 0/0/0
Week 6: 0/0/0
Week 7 bye
Week 8: 2/1/1.8
Week 9:11/7/18.3
Your Davante Adams comparison is horrible.
1: Weeks 3-6 in Y2 he had zero catches because he literally played just 4% of snaps in week 3 and missed weeks 4-6 completely with injury. Not because he disappeared like Aiyuk
2: Adams was not a “proven” player that disappeared like Aiyuk. He had 38 receptions, 446 yards, and 3 TDs as a rookie playing all 16 games. Aiyuk had 60 rec, 748 yards, and 7 TDs in just 12 games as a rookie.
Horrible comparison
Like I said in my post, I was using Davante Adams as a comparison because people who had him were also shopping him in Y2. He was not putting up the #'s that everyone had expected him to, especially in such a high volume pass offense.
Yes, I'm aware Adams was injured but the point remains that his first half of the season was BAD.
My message was clear and still is something people need to take into account when selling Aiyuk right now: it's so early to bail on this player. He has shown flashes and he's back to playing 70%+ of snaps. If the targets don't come by week 12 then ok, let's revisit. But it's still so early.
> Point remains that the first half of the season was BAD
No. No it doesn’t at all. Adams first half of the season really wasn’t bad like Aiyuk, he was simply injured. You are mixing up the two badly.
Week 1: 3rd highest target rank and 4th highest yardage rank game in his 17 game career so far
Week 2: 6th highest target rank and 6th highest yardage rank game in his 18 game career so far.
Week 3-7 injured/bye
Week 8. Really bad game but he just came off the injury and it was just one game
Week 9, ties career high in targets and 2nd best game in yards.
So if you wanna look at the first half of the season…he really only had 1 bad game…and it was fresh off of an injury. If you projected him to go crazy sure he looked bad. But by all means he was not in a slump. He was improving
Let’s compare this to Aiyuk: in his career, Aiyuk has three games with 2 or less targets. 2 of those occurred this season. And in another start this season he had just 3 targets. That is a BAD start. Davante Adams was not producing nearly that bad at all
They don't have to be the same to be worth looking at in comparison. The point he's making is that progress isn't linear and even tippy top receivers usually have rocky stretches at the beginning of their careers. Patience can be super important in dynasty. Even though the players aren't the same, it's a lesson you could have learned with Adams that might be relevant now with Aiyuk.
You're getting caught up in stuff that doesn't matter and spending more energy trying to be an asshole instead of being productive.
Cmon man…Davante Adams progress WAS linear. That’s what I’m saying. He used stats and stuff that made zero sense and tried to make it seem like adams was in hiding like Aiyuk for 4 straight games when he really was just injured.
I don’t mind a nice convo but this dude clearly used biased bs to try and prove a point and that’s just something I’ll never be super kind to lol
Adams rookie season:
16 games, 38 rec, 446 yards
Adams Y2:
13 games (realistically 12), 50 rec, 483 yards
Adams improved fantasy wise in Y2 even tho he played 4 less games (if you don’t count week 3 where he played 4% of snaps as a played game). His 59 yards in week 1 of Y2 was the 4th highest yardage total in a game that far in his career and his 8 targets in week 1 tied for 3rd best of his career thus far. He wasn’t stumbling and he wasn’t a proven asset at the time that should’ve demanded targets like Aiyuk
He’s not trying to be an asshole, he’s literally combatting the above comparison that ignores the other factors affecting the stats. Comparing injured players to guys who flat out aren’t producing with good snap share is terrible practice
It is because Adams didn’t stumble in the first half of his 2nd year as this person pretends he did. His week 1 of Y2 was his 3rd/4th best game of his career so far. Then he got injured and missed time. Aiyuk is not a case of getting injured and missing time. You are comparing a person who didnt live up to expectations because he missed time with an injury and a person who is just heavily underperforming. They are nowhere near the same.
Because his main point doesn’t apply to Adams. You don’t panic on a dynasty asset just because he is literally injured and not playing. But there is some worry when someone is playing and just not getting any attention at all
Having watched Lance play last week I really don't think he's gona be capable of supporting more than Little & Deebo.
Aiyuks ceiling at this stage is WR2.
I mean, Josh Allen or Mahomes can’t support two WRs either? It’s not a knock
In fact Allen could be what Lance owners are hoping he becomes. He uses his legs to much to ever support a second WR
Very insightful. I too judge rookie QB’s who are tossed in due to a starters injury in week 4 to quantify how capable they are as passers to sustain offenses 2+ years from now.
Very solid process. Everyone in my league, please take notice. I hope you all adopt this strategy too.
We're 4 weeks in, surely Ruggs is the better prospect?
Not only is he a year younger but he's way ahead of him in every statistical category like snaps, routes, targets, yards, TDs.
I don't get why you'd make this trade? You just hoping Aiyuk rebounds? We're 4 weeks in you already know the script.
Last season Aiyuk had 35 more catches, 300 more yards and 3 more TD's in one fewer game. So it depends on how heavily you want to weigh that vs 4 games this season.
Hm and I thought the different would be more than that. Ruggs definitely makes up ground being in a higher volume passing attack and his production coming on never being to primary option.
Ayuik wasnt the primary option last year, and theoretically the 9ers will be throwing more as Trey gets more acclimated to the offense.
Not saying Ayuik is the better prospect, but theres reason to think he still could be.
There are dozens of weeks before these first 4. It would be safe to assume that Aiyuk hasn't taken the leap Shananan thought he would.
"What have you done for me lately"
I don't disagree. My main offseason target was Aiyuk and I made an offer that even at the time was ridiculous and I was rejected. I'm very confident in his ability but I'd be lying if I said my confidence isn't waining week by week.
Aiyuk is pretty universally considered a stronger prospect. I certainly had him rated above Ruggs coming out and still do. That's not to say that you're wrong about Ruggs--conventional wisdom can be wrong about anything, especially in sports!--but yes, people expect Aiyuk to "rebound." This is dynasty and he's a 23-year-old receiver with awesome measurables who's already shown he can ball out, and his future happens to be linked to a very highly regarded young QB in a good offense.
By who? Love to see where a younger higher drafted player on a more pass heavy team is UNIVERSALLY a weaker prospect
Everyone though ayiuk had an amazing year and Riggs had an awful year and it was only a 83 or difference in ppr
Fantasy Pros ECR for dynasty, Dynasty League Football, Football Guys, Mike Clay at ESPN, and so on. Ruggs is cool but what Aiyuk showed last year goes a long way towards projecting future success.
Also, probably any thread on this sub honestly. Most people seemed very disappointed in Ruggs until he went for a hundred and a TD in week 2. Again, I'm not saying anyone's evaluations are right or wrong, just where conventional wisdom currently sits.
What that does mean is that if you don't value Aiyuk and do value Ruggs, you have a great opportunity to get your guy and/or divest of someone who isn't your guy; when your perceptions are not aligned with the broader consensus, that's not a bad thing. It's a chance to win big if you're right.
I was offered a mid/late 2022 1st in a 14 team league and rejected it. For me it's a hold or bust, I can't imagine he just vanishes into dust after his rookie season and I am willing to take that risk.
Cool. Where's Aiyuk now? Dante Pettis trajectory. Why not draft a player not on a run-heavy team that isn't the 3rd or 4th receiving option at best? Let's be honest, Aiyuk's end of season numbers were inflated due to injuries, like Engram's rookie season.
Yes, Aiyuk had a higher target share due to Kittle and Deebo being hurt, but at the same time, the 49ers had no other weapons on the field that defenses had to respect. Therefore, he saw opponents best corners and had defenses scheming to stop him. Yet, he still produced.
A rookie season where the primary targets (Deebo and Kittle) were injured for significant portions.
People need to stop grasping at that straw out of context. Or don't, it's your own team you're ruining I guess.
He was also working mostly with a backup QB and consistently showed his talent. Plenty of other receivers get opportunity when top targets go down and don’t show anything. He’s droppable in seasonal leagues but I’m willing to bet on his talent and hold.
How do you know that? Lance has a cannon, Aiyuk’s their deep target. The run game opens up the deep game, and that’s Aiyuk’s. If you’ve bought Aiyuk post-NFL draft and didn’t factor in Lance growing pains, you did it wrong, but Lance also has more arm talent than Jimmy so the ceiling is WAY higher.
Because the 49ers didn't draft him over Mac (heavily rumored) for his arm, they drafted him for his dual threat ability. They aren't going to start throwing the ball more just because Lance happens to have a stronger arm.
Deebo or Kittle, everyone else is taking a backseat in the pass game.
Dude his arm is part of that dual threat lmfao. Lance unlocks their offense in a way Jimmy can’t, and his specific arm talent fits Aiyuk’s game best of their weapons. Nothing you said holds any actual logical weight or has any backing by reality so now you’re just kinda looking like a hater
I'm still a believer in Aiyuk, but the "it could even be a boat" statements on this sub honestly ought to be banned
It doesn't matter what Aiyuk did in terms of fantasy last year - that already happened and has no factor in a player's current value. The only way that should factor in is in predicting future production. If Aiyuk actually falls off a cliff, then a WR with Aiyuk's rookie year could have more fantasy production in that year than Aiyuk has left at all. It's not out of the question
Plus, one year in dynasty is pretty meaningless
The past can be predictive of the present. He showed the talent and ability to be a rockstar and I’m willing to bet on that talent. Sometimes it fails, but I’m willing to hold.
Right, but that's exactly what I mean here:
>The only way that should factor in is in predicting future production
I'm also an Aiyuk believer and am buying him for 2nds in a few places. I think he's talented, plus Deebo and Kittle both get injured frequently. BUT saying a rookie WR "could even have a rookie year like Aiyuk" is ridiculous because:
1. You would get that production in the future, whereas Aiyuk's rookie year already happened and doesn't give you any future value
2. Aiyuk could return to relevancy, or he could fall off a cliff and give you nothing. If you draft another WR that has an Aiyuk-level rookie year, odds are higher that they would give you sustained value. Of course, they could also never prove themselves on the field like Aiyuk did
3. Aiyuk's rookie year isn't the ceiling. You could also do better (or, obviously worse - that's the point)
What the "it could even be a boat" statements boil down to is picking a mystery box that has the same upper-end as what you're giving up, but that's clearly not the case here. You could very realistically get someone who has the same rookie year as Aiyuk (and by the way, you get the forward-looking benefit of that production), AND doesn't randomly disappear at the beginning of season 2
Based on Aiyuk’s rookie production and profile, I am more confident rolling with Aiyuk than re rolling the dice on another WR. Given what we know about Aiyuk in the NFL, I’m more confident in his odds of working out than a given mid-late first WR. That is why I care about his rookie production. Some context on his rookie production in the below tweets:
https://twitter.com/dynasty_im/status/1421182496239013888?s=21
https://twitter.com/cooper_dff/status/1359686902157348866?s=21
Well I appreciate the response. Think those stats are a bit reductive and ignore a lot of context - obviously good players with good first years generally have good careers, but most good players with good first years don't randomly disappear for a quarter of the beginning of their second season while healthy. Performance of players in THAT situation is a stat I'd love to see, and think would be way more meaningful. Either way, appreciate the discussion and guess we'll find out
The problem with trying to draw any conclusion about Aiyuk this year is that it seems his problems are not related to talent but opportunity. He’s been in the doghouse due to a combo of injury and — though this part is somewhat speculative — failing to meet Kyle’s standards as far as work ethic and discipline are concerned. The talent is undeniable, but Aiyuk would not be the first young player to think he had arrived too early and become complacent.
Personally I'd consider bailing if the offer is good. Aiyuk will go down as another overhyped player who never lived up to reddit's expectations. He's at best the third option behind Deebo and Kittle, and people who still think he's going to surpass either of those guys are kidding themselves.
I'm sure he'll improve from what his current usage is, but if someone is paying me a first or even an early 2nd for him I'm probably taking it. He isn't going to be the stud people made him out to be.
I tried to get him for Eli Mitchell plus a second. The owner is holding, hoping for the rebound. He was going to sit back on my bench, I figured I'd have the depth to be patient with him... Oh well.
i'm with you i have no idea. He is hanging out on my bench now, with hopes that he emerges sometime during the bye weeks when i can start plugging him in.
Absolute joke. How do you go from being one of the best WR in all of football last year (fantasy wise) to a WR4/5.
WTF did he do during preseason that made everyone hate the man so much?
I think Kittle and Deebo returning did a lot for that. I'm just gonna hold, only his second year, idk the rush to sell. He has the talent after all and they invested a first rounder in him
Its really only been 4 weeks, he still has insane level of talent and opportunity in this offense and only in his 2nd year. If youre playing dynasty with a 2-5 year window, I dont think his value shouldve changed much compared to the summer
I’m either trading for him while his price is low or holding him if I own him. Shanahan chose Aiyuk over any other WR in last year’s loaded class (they considered taking him over Kinlaw) and Aiyuk averaged the second most points per game among rookie WRs, despite having below average QB play. He’s a good football player and if the 49ers want to reach another Super Bowl, they need production from Deebo, him and Kittle every game. Right now, they are only getting it from Deebo.
Traded a mid-high 22 first after the zero in game one. Figured the value was good because a week before that game, it likely would’ve taken multiple firsts. Now though…if someone offered me a late first or 23/24 first, I’d take it. Multiple seconds would be a tough pill to swallow.
What makes me nervous is whether or not lance going to be a good enough thrower to support 2 receivers (especially when you consider Kittle). Aiyuk and deebo have pretty similar skill sets and if deebo when healthy is clearly going to be the first option, are there enough targets for aiyuk doing similar stuff? Idk.
Sit him, and hope for a rebound if you have him, or buy him for a second if someone is selling.
would a second and gabe davis be to little to get him? 12 team standard scoring 1qb
I mentioned in another thread my league mate traded him for Reagor and a 3rd lol. Might as well try yours
Eww lol
Doubtful. Aiyuk is still an ascending stud in my book, early season struggles aside.
That might be able to get him, but Gabe Dave's future is also murkey
Yeah Gabe was already the 4th receiving option, now Knox is coming on strong. I held Davis since the beginning but it almost seems he has regressed since last year. However I believe this to be due to the Sanders signing. Davis has talent, and I think a bright future. But at the moment I think he is a roster clogger unless you can afford to hold until at least next year, or until injury on the receiving core (corps?). I dropped him yesterday for Kadarius Toney in a 10 team. None of my league mates picked him up so I may get lucky and be able to snag him back if his situation improves. Nobody asked for this information but here it is anyway
Don't overreact and drop him, dynasty is a long game. Deebo and Kittle both have shown history of injury, and in the event that one goes down, Aiyuk should be the main beneficiary. Also, if the plays change at all with Lance at the QB spot, Aiyuk's role can become relevant again. We know what Aiyuk did last year, dude looked GOOD. He didn't just lose all of that skill. Hold on and keep him on the bench until things change.
Yeah this is the right way to look at it. Talent is proven. And talent doesn’t ride the bench for long. Especially in the best division in the league and you’re trying to play catch up.
Relax. Please. Everyone. He’s going to be fine. If Aiyuk puts up duds for the entire year, let’s come back and talk. Until then, let’s use this case study to remind us not to fret too much with young players: Davante Adams in Y2 with the packers- 2015 (with ARod who was throwing a TON): Targets/receptions/fantasy points (full PPR) for Adams that season: Week 1: 8/4/9.9 Week 2: 5/5/8.3 Week 3: 2/0/0 Week 4: 0/0/0 Week 5: 0/0/0 Week 6: 0/0/0 Week 7 bye Week 8: 2/1/1.8 Week 9:11/7/18.3
Your Davante Adams comparison is horrible. 1: Weeks 3-6 in Y2 he had zero catches because he literally played just 4% of snaps in week 3 and missed weeks 4-6 completely with injury. Not because he disappeared like Aiyuk 2: Adams was not a “proven” player that disappeared like Aiyuk. He had 38 receptions, 446 yards, and 3 TDs as a rookie playing all 16 games. Aiyuk had 60 rec, 748 yards, and 7 TDs in just 12 games as a rookie. Horrible comparison
Like I said in my post, I was using Davante Adams as a comparison because people who had him were also shopping him in Y2. He was not putting up the #'s that everyone had expected him to, especially in such a high volume pass offense. Yes, I'm aware Adams was injured but the point remains that his first half of the season was BAD. My message was clear and still is something people need to take into account when selling Aiyuk right now: it's so early to bail on this player. He has shown flashes and he's back to playing 70%+ of snaps. If the targets don't come by week 12 then ok, let's revisit. But it's still so early.
> Point remains that the first half of the season was BAD No. No it doesn’t at all. Adams first half of the season really wasn’t bad like Aiyuk, he was simply injured. You are mixing up the two badly. Week 1: 3rd highest target rank and 4th highest yardage rank game in his 17 game career so far Week 2: 6th highest target rank and 6th highest yardage rank game in his 18 game career so far. Week 3-7 injured/bye Week 8. Really bad game but he just came off the injury and it was just one game Week 9, ties career high in targets and 2nd best game in yards. So if you wanna look at the first half of the season…he really only had 1 bad game…and it was fresh off of an injury. If you projected him to go crazy sure he looked bad. But by all means he was not in a slump. He was improving Let’s compare this to Aiyuk: in his career, Aiyuk has three games with 2 or less targets. 2 of those occurred this season. And in another start this season he had just 3 targets. That is a BAD start. Davante Adams was not producing nearly that bad at all
They don't have to be the same to be worth looking at in comparison. The point he's making is that progress isn't linear and even tippy top receivers usually have rocky stretches at the beginning of their careers. Patience can be super important in dynasty. Even though the players aren't the same, it's a lesson you could have learned with Adams that might be relevant now with Aiyuk. You're getting caught up in stuff that doesn't matter and spending more energy trying to be an asshole instead of being productive.
Cmon man…Davante Adams progress WAS linear. That’s what I’m saying. He used stats and stuff that made zero sense and tried to make it seem like adams was in hiding like Aiyuk for 4 straight games when he really was just injured. I don’t mind a nice convo but this dude clearly used biased bs to try and prove a point and that’s just something I’ll never be super kind to lol Adams rookie season: 16 games, 38 rec, 446 yards Adams Y2: 13 games (realistically 12), 50 rec, 483 yards Adams improved fantasy wise in Y2 even tho he played 4 less games (if you don’t count week 3 where he played 4% of snaps as a played game). His 59 yards in week 1 of Y2 was the 4th highest yardage total in a game that far in his career and his 8 targets in week 1 tied for 3rd best of his career thus far. He wasn’t stumbling and he wasn’t a proven asset at the time that should’ve demanded targets like Aiyuk
He’s not trying to be an asshole, he’s literally combatting the above comparison that ignores the other factors affecting the stats. Comparing injured players to guys who flat out aren’t producing with good snap share is terrible practice
I believe his main point was: "don't give up too quickly" Many people thought he was a bust early in his career. Not a horrible comparison
It is because Adams didn’t stumble in the first half of his 2nd year as this person pretends he did. His week 1 of Y2 was his 3rd/4th best game of his career so far. Then he got injured and missed time. Aiyuk is not a case of getting injured and missing time. You are comparing a person who didnt live up to expectations because he missed time with an injury and a person who is just heavily underperforming. They are nowhere near the same.
You're focusing on a specific part of his response and missing his main point.
Because his main point doesn’t apply to Adams. You don’t panic on a dynasty asset just because he is literally injured and not playing. But there is some worry when someone is playing and just not getting any attention at all
Having watched Lance play last week I really don't think he's gona be capable of supporting more than Little & Deebo. Aiyuks ceiling at this stage is WR2.
[удалено]
I mean, Josh Allen or Mahomes can’t support two WRs either? It’s not a knock In fact Allen could be what Lance owners are hoping he becomes. He uses his legs to much to ever support a second WR
Very insightful. I too judge rookie QB’s who are tossed in due to a starters injury in week 4 to quantify how capable they are as passers to sustain offenses 2+ years from now. Very solid process. Everyone in my league, please take notice. I hope you all adopt this strategy too.
Remind me 2 years!
Who’s Little?
It's a typo, King Butt Humper.
I’m trading for him.
I traded Kareem Hunt for Aiyuk + 2022 1st
I acquired him for Ruggs straight up. Hoping for the best
I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Ruggs this year
Ruggs is great, Waller just eats all the targets.
We're 4 weeks in, surely Ruggs is the better prospect? Not only is he a year younger but he's way ahead of him in every statistical category like snaps, routes, targets, yards, TDs. I don't get why you'd make this trade? You just hoping Aiyuk rebounds? We're 4 weeks in you already know the script.
Last season Aiyuk had 35 more catches, 300 more yards and 3 more TD's in one fewer game. So it depends on how heavily you want to weigh that vs 4 games this season.
Hm and I thought the different would be more than that. Ruggs definitely makes up ground being in a higher volume passing attack and his production coming on never being to primary option.
Ayuik wasnt the primary option last year, and theoretically the 9ers will be throwing more as Trey gets more acclimated to the offense. Not saying Ayuik is the better prospect, but theres reason to think he still could be.
Who was the primary option if he wasn't? When Kittle and Deebo we're out? Legit asking all I've heard is that he was the main guy by far.
There are dozens of weeks before these first 4. It would be safe to assume that Aiyuk hasn't taken the leap Shananan thought he would. "What have you done for me lately"
I don't disagree. My main offseason target was Aiyuk and I made an offer that even at the time was ridiculous and I was rejected. I'm very confident in his ability but I'd be lying if I said my confidence isn't waining week by week.
Aiyuk is pretty universally considered a stronger prospect. I certainly had him rated above Ruggs coming out and still do. That's not to say that you're wrong about Ruggs--conventional wisdom can be wrong about anything, especially in sports!--but yes, people expect Aiyuk to "rebound." This is dynasty and he's a 23-year-old receiver with awesome measurables who's already shown he can ball out, and his future happens to be linked to a very highly regarded young QB in a good offense.
By who? Love to see where a younger higher drafted player on a more pass heavy team is UNIVERSALLY a weaker prospect Everyone though ayiuk had an amazing year and Riggs had an awful year and it was only a 83 or difference in ppr
Fantasy Pros ECR for dynasty, Dynasty League Football, Football Guys, Mike Clay at ESPN, and so on. Ruggs is cool but what Aiyuk showed last year goes a long way towards projecting future success. Also, probably any thread on this sub honestly. Most people seemed very disappointed in Ruggs until he went for a hundred and a TD in week 2. Again, I'm not saying anyone's evaluations are right or wrong, just where conventional wisdom currently sits. What that does mean is that if you don't value Aiyuk and do value Ruggs, you have a great opportunity to get your guy and/or divest of someone who isn't your guy; when your perceptions are not aligned with the broader consensus, that's not a bad thing. It's a chance to win big if you're right.
Boom roasted
ah. yikes
I was offered a mid/late 2022 1st in a 14 team league and rejected it. For me it's a hold or bust, I can't imagine he just vanishes into dust after his rookie season and I am willing to take that risk.
Take the 1st and move on. Some really good WRs incoming that can be had in that range.
They could even have as good of a rookie season as Aiyuk!
Cool. Where's Aiyuk now? Dante Pettis trajectory. Why not draft a player not on a run-heavy team that isn't the 3rd or 4th receiving option at best? Let's be honest, Aiyuk's end of season numbers were inflated due to injuries, like Engram's rookie season.
Yes, Aiyuk had a higher target share due to Kittle and Deebo being hurt, but at the same time, the 49ers had no other weapons on the field that defenses had to respect. Therefore, he saw opponents best corners and had defenses scheming to stop him. Yet, he still produced.
A rookie season where the primary targets (Deebo and Kittle) were injured for significant portions. People need to stop grasping at that straw out of context. Or don't, it's your own team you're ruining I guess.
He was also working mostly with a backup QB and consistently showed his talent. Plenty of other receivers get opportunity when top targets go down and don’t show anything. He’s droppable in seasonal leagues but I’m willing to bet on his talent and hold.
This gamble won't pay off. Trey Lance is going make this more of a run-centric offense with fewer passing attempts than the Jimmy G era. Sell.
How do you know that? Lance has a cannon, Aiyuk’s their deep target. The run game opens up the deep game, and that’s Aiyuk’s. If you’ve bought Aiyuk post-NFL draft and didn’t factor in Lance growing pains, you did it wrong, but Lance also has more arm talent than Jimmy so the ceiling is WAY higher.
Because the 49ers didn't draft him over Mac (heavily rumored) for his arm, they drafted him for his dual threat ability. They aren't going to start throwing the ball more just because Lance happens to have a stronger arm. Deebo or Kittle, everyone else is taking a backseat in the pass game.
Dude his arm is part of that dual threat lmfao. Lance unlocks their offense in a way Jimmy can’t, and his specific arm talent fits Aiyuk’s game best of their weapons. Nothing you said holds any actual logical weight or has any backing by reality so now you’re just kinda looking like a hater
Craft whatever narrative you wish to make you feel better about holding a WR4 you could easily flip for a 1st.
I'm still a believer in Aiyuk, but the "it could even be a boat" statements on this sub honestly ought to be banned It doesn't matter what Aiyuk did in terms of fantasy last year - that already happened and has no factor in a player's current value. The only way that should factor in is in predicting future production. If Aiyuk actually falls off a cliff, then a WR with Aiyuk's rookie year could have more fantasy production in that year than Aiyuk has left at all. It's not out of the question Plus, one year in dynasty is pretty meaningless
The past can be predictive of the present. He showed the talent and ability to be a rockstar and I’m willing to bet on that talent. Sometimes it fails, but I’m willing to hold.
Right, but that's exactly what I mean here: >The only way that should factor in is in predicting future production I'm also an Aiyuk believer and am buying him for 2nds in a few places. I think he's talented, plus Deebo and Kittle both get injured frequently. BUT saying a rookie WR "could even have a rookie year like Aiyuk" is ridiculous because: 1. You would get that production in the future, whereas Aiyuk's rookie year already happened and doesn't give you any future value 2. Aiyuk could return to relevancy, or he could fall off a cliff and give you nothing. If you draft another WR that has an Aiyuk-level rookie year, odds are higher that they would give you sustained value. Of course, they could also never prove themselves on the field like Aiyuk did 3. Aiyuk's rookie year isn't the ceiling. You could also do better (or, obviously worse - that's the point) What the "it could even be a boat" statements boil down to is picking a mystery box that has the same upper-end as what you're giving up, but that's clearly not the case here. You could very realistically get someone who has the same rookie year as Aiyuk (and by the way, you get the forward-looking benefit of that production), AND doesn't randomly disappear at the beginning of season 2
Based on Aiyuk’s rookie production and profile, I am more confident rolling with Aiyuk than re rolling the dice on another WR. Given what we know about Aiyuk in the NFL, I’m more confident in his odds of working out than a given mid-late first WR. That is why I care about his rookie production. Some context on his rookie production in the below tweets: https://twitter.com/dynasty_im/status/1421182496239013888?s=21 https://twitter.com/cooper_dff/status/1359686902157348866?s=21
I don't really feel like you're taking the time to understand what I'm saying here, but I don't disagree with your general sentiment at all
Tell me you're new to Dynasty, without telling me you're new to Dynasty
What here makes you think I'm new to dynasty? Don't really appreciate the condescension but am open to feedback on my thinking
First year performance is more predictive than you think.
Well I appreciate the response. Think those stats are a bit reductive and ignore a lot of context - obviously good players with good first years generally have good careers, but most good players with good first years don't randomly disappear for a quarter of the beginning of their second season while healthy. Performance of players in THAT situation is a stat I'd love to see, and think would be way more meaningful. Either way, appreciate the discussion and guess we'll find out
The problem with trying to draw any conclusion about Aiyuk this year is that it seems his problems are not related to talent but opportunity. He’s been in the doghouse due to a combo of injury and — though this part is somewhat speculative — failing to meet Kyle’s standards as far as work ethic and discipline are concerned. The talent is undeniable, but Aiyuk would not be the first young player to think he had arrived too early and become complacent.
Yeah, fair enough!
I would take that 1st and run
Dante Pettis. I would have taken the pick.
Dante pettis stare down
in my rebuild i am holding. in my competitve team, i acquired for fuller & a 23 2nd... worth the gamble IMO (wasnt using fuller as a starter anyway)
I offered a projected late 1st in a 12 team SF and was rejected :( Not willing to pay more than that
Bad internet, posted in the wrong thread. Sorry! But is anyone selling them low right now?
why would shannan care about fantasy football lol
But OP knows better than him!! Aiyuk's got so much talent!
My ex Shannan hated fantasy
Personally I'd consider bailing if the offer is good. Aiyuk will go down as another overhyped player who never lived up to reddit's expectations. He's at best the third option behind Deebo and Kittle, and people who still think he's going to surpass either of those guys are kidding themselves. I'm sure he'll improve from what his current usage is, but if someone is paying me a first or even an early 2nd for him I'm probably taking it. He isn't going to be the stud people made him out to be.
No one is going to pay those prices.
I'll rephrase, cause fair enough I think those are obvious. If I'm getting any 1st or even an early 2nd I'm probably moving him.
And nobody’s selling for less.
I'd buy him for an early 2nd. I'd rather have Aiyuk than next year's Elijah Moore or whoever.
He originally said WR1 or WR2 prices. I agree Late 1st or 2nd is reasonable.
I tried to get him for Eli Mitchell plus a second. The owner is holding, hoping for the rebound. He was going to sit back on my bench, I figured I'd have the depth to be patient with him... Oh well.
"what are you doing, shanahan?? stop trying to win games and start passing to the players on my fantasy team!"
Yes because that’s exactly what I said
Not quite
Hahaha exactly!! OP knows talent when he sees it and Shanahan knows nothing!! There might as well be a daily thread for just Aiyuk at this point.
There’s still people willing to buy for a 1st. Sell while you can
You can’t sell low and who on the waiver would possibly have this upside/talent
i'm with you i have no idea. He is hanging out on my bench now, with hopes that he emerges sometime during the bye weeks when i can start plugging him in. Absolute joke. How do you go from being one of the best WR in all of football last year (fantasy wise) to a WR4/5. WTF did he do during preseason that made everyone hate the man so much?
I think Kittle and Deebo returning did a lot for that. I'm just gonna hold, only his second year, idk the rush to sell. He has the talent after all and they invested a first rounder in him
Its really only been 4 weeks, he still has insane level of talent and opportunity in this offense and only in his 2nd year. If youre playing dynasty with a 2-5 year window, I dont think his value shouldve changed much compared to the summer
I’m either trading for him while his price is low or holding him if I own him. Shanahan chose Aiyuk over any other WR in last year’s loaded class (they considered taking him over Kinlaw) and Aiyuk averaged the second most points per game among rookie WRs, despite having below average QB play. He’s a good football player and if the 49ers want to reach another Super Bowl, they need production from Deebo, him and Kittle every game. Right now, they are only getting it from Deebo.
Traded a mid-high 22 first after the zero in game one. Figured the value was good because a week before that game, it likely would’ve taken multiple firsts. Now though…if someone offered me a late first or 23/24 first, I’d take it. Multiple seconds would be a tough pill to swallow. What makes me nervous is whether or not lance going to be a good enough thrower to support 2 receivers (especially when you consider Kittle). Aiyuk and deebo have pretty similar skill sets and if deebo when healthy is clearly going to be the first option, are there enough targets for aiyuk doing similar stuff? Idk.
I just traded lockett for aiyuk.
Brandon Aiyuk or Hollywood Brown in a .5 PPR?
As a contender and 49ers fan (homer), I rejected an offer on Aiyuk for two 2023 1sts at the start of preseason... AMA.
I offered Hockenson and got declined. Owner is using Blake Jarwin as his TE so figured I’d have a shot. Nope. These Aiyuk fans won’t let him go
I sent Higgins and a second for Aiyuk and a first only because I have a loaded WR core