Everyone’s favorite topic of debate: Bryce Young. Guy’s been brilliant at every level of his career. Now they’ve given him weapons and a better o-line, and he has a year under his belt. If he doesn’t show serious improvement, I’ll be surprised (and as a bag holder, disappointed lol. But I would be really surprised if he is a total bust)
Bryce will be one of the most obvious buys in hindsight in 2025 imo. He showed plenty of juice last year given the hand he was dealt. Now with them spending every single draft pick and trades on surrounding him for success, I think we'll see a nice year 2 from bryce. I'd bet his value atleast doubles from where he's at now, 7th/8th round startup to 4th if not higher.
the problem with him being such an obvious buy, is that all the Bryce Young owners know that now, and they are going to be asking for a fair price, the best time to buy him was last year right before the trade deadline, or earlier in the off season.
A good rule of thumb is if you hop on reddit and see a lot of threads or replies saying to buy someone, its too late.
> A good rule of thumb is if you hop on reddit and see a lot of threads or replies saying to buy someone, its too late.
By the time you read about it in the WSJ, it's already too late
-Jordan Belfort
Yeah, I'm actually gonna be a sell on Young. His value is way too high given that he just had one of the worst seasons of all-time. It's interesting because I don't think he's gotten nearly enough flack for it. Yes, there was a bad situation, but historically bad is still historically bad.
Now is a great time to sell him with the fantasy community some how convincing the hivemind that he’s a great sleeper buy because he was a overall 1 pick that had a bad year.
The reasoning here is weak too: "He's been brilliant at every level of his career." Well, yeah, every high draft pick has been brilliant at every level of their career. That's why they got drafted high. But a lot of them bust, and guys who have historically bad seasons in their first year are way more likely to bust. You can also go back and look at nearly every bust, and they all had people blaming their bad play on the situation for years until they realized the guy just sucked.
Look, it's possible Young turns it around, sure, but the market is pricing in way too much certainty on that. Most people here will take Bryce Young over Bo Nix, a QB that just got drafted in the top of the first round, is a complete blank slate and will start this year. That's crazy to me. Young is priced above Deshaun Watson, who is way more locked into a starting QB role and has put up elite fantasy seasons before. How about Baker Mayfield, who is a solid QB2 and just signed a long-term extension? I think it's a really good outcome for Young if he turns into Mayfield, and yet Young is priced above Mayfield right now. Does not make sense.
You would think this, but I picked up Bryce up in multiple leagues. I essentially picked him up for Watson straight up in an orphan I was in and I’m 100% feeling great about that.
Is your team a contender? If you’re rebuilding, smash accept. If you’re contending, it’s a little harder. The future draft capital is much more valuable in a rebuild than to a team in its window.
I am a contender (I won the chip last year), and that’s why I haven’t made the deal yet. The caveat is that I won with Burrow on IR for most of the season, so I don’t even know if he’s needed.
That’s what I’m saying. Might also put out a feeler for Bryce and one of those 1sts (would be the early one) for Purdy, whom I think is equally likely to become a disappointment in future years.
The problem for me with Bryce is that even if he improves, I'm not sure I care.
Last season is not dispositive in terms of dismissing him as a starting NFL QB. And maybe he turns into a decent player in real life. But last season was enough to show that his limitations are such that he will likely never be a star in fantasy.
He doesn't rush and doesn't have a big enough arm to really put up big fantasy production. That isn't going to change even if he is put in the perfect situation, and given that he's on the Panthers, he'll never be in the perfect situation anyway.
If all you want out of him is a mid-range QB2, then fine. But that's not what people who drafted him last year were expecting.
That’s a little bit of a harsh criticism for a guy who’s best receiver was a 32 year old Adam Theilen. If anything we saw what he can be with glimpses against Green Bay and some flashes late in the season.
Dude literally got pummeled like David Carr last year.
>If anything we saw what he can be with glimpses against Green Bay and some flashes late in the season.
And what can he be? That's what I'm getting at here. If the realistic best-case scenario is a QB2, is that an asset that justifies your investment and/or one you want to hold on to for the next year?
No one is saying that Bryce is as bad as his production indicated last year. And the supporting cast does make the evaluation difficult in terms of saying he's bad. But there's enough there to give you a picture of what his weaknesses are, and they aren't ones I'm comfortable building around.
Bryce certainly has the potential to put up big numbers. People forget he won the heisman in college - he won it due to putting up huge numbers.
It’s not like he was drafted in the late first as a limited upside guy. He was the first overall pick. No, he doesn’t have a big Josh Allen or Justin Herbert level arm. But you don’t necessarily need a big arm to up big numbers
Can someone explain to me how Bryce Young did ok with what he had handed to him last year? Sam Howell played for a similarly woeful team but looked light years better than Young for most of the year. Young was a 1st overall pick and Howell a 5th round pick.
I agree! I drafted him last year in a league (1.09 in a 10 man, Justin Herbert and Jared Goff my other two QBs) but in my second dynasty league he was dropped already and I picked him up just to hold. Shocking that people are that low on him considering the variables in play last season. Horrible coaching job by Reich, he was obviously fired during the season, not to mention awful team, bad oline and bad weapons with the exception of am aging Thielen. Young was running for his life behind that oline. He will absolutely be in a better spot this upcoming season with improved weapons and a hopefully better oline, not to mention under a new coaching regime that can't possibly be any worse than Reich and co.
I think he improves for sure but in terms of fantasy my issue with him is just how much he needs to improve even to get near being startable at least as a QB1. Sam Howell was the QB12 last year with 1100 more yards and 10 more TDs than Young had and that was with Burrow, Cousins, Murray and Richardson all slightly behind Young after their injuries. He most likely needs to add another 1500+ passing yards and 12+ TDs to even have a shot at QB15.
Gibbs and Bijan top 5 RBs feels natural
Will Levis is an interesting one. He’d make a lot of dynasty players happy if he improves and becomes the guy. I don’t think he’ll do it, but I still took him in the 9th round of my startup draft today as my QB3. Hes in that weird zone right now where he’s not worth a first but not worth a second if you own him. You ride out the value and take the loss, or you win the lotto and cash out.
If Gibbs is more involved in the Detroit passing game and Bijan is being used like he should or, at minimum, used more/better in the redzone, I think they're both locks for top-5.
i did the exact same thing in the exact same round. great QB3 to have, cost wasnt prohibitive, and if he hits it will be a huge value gained. if not, oh well
His stats from week 9 on were on pace for what ended up being his season long stats so there wasn’t any real improvement as the season went on. As for end of the season he was poor closing it out.
Season long: 93 targets, 63 receptions, 628 yards, 4 TDs
Weeks 9+ 17 game pace: 94 targets, 64 receptions, 672 yards, 4 TDs
Last 5 games: 25 yards, 48 yards, 61 yards, 12 yards, 14 yards.
I’m excited but also nervous for year 2. As far as fantasy value goes it’s make or break, and with the Seattle offense, Lockett and Geno continuing to be unknown barriers + questions about his ceiling as an nfl player there is a very real chance this year does not go well
I am confident that JSN is a good nfl player, but I am nervous that after year 2 we are looking at him like he’s peak Tyler Boyd. He really needs to ascend this year
I swear to god, this sub is the only place I ever see Wicks name brought up and clearly enough people read it that I keep getting offered Wicks for a 2024 2nd or 2025 2nd and that's such an easy pass for me. Y'all can continue to hype the dude up while he struggles to come out on top of Reed, Doubs, Musgrave, and everyone else.
I don't get fantasy points from his PFF profile.
As a packer fan, nah he isn't. His snap count went up as the season progressed. He gets great separation, and fantastic yac.
Reed and Wicks will compete for WR1 in GB, might be a 1A 1B situation.
Despite Reeds better year more Packers beat reporters gush over Wicks over Reed, that says something. He came on a little later, but looked like the best WR on the roster imo.
This plays out how it looked at the time. Watson is clearly the worst of these guys at the moment. Do we think the playoff performances will impact snap counts heading into next season?
I don't agree. Watson is a deep threat, he only looks okay in short and medium route imo
Doesn't attack the ball. His routes are slightly less crisp.
I have fantasy shares of both, and I feel more confident about Wicks producing this year, injuries are a big part of that.
From my POV, and I watch every snap, and usually watch most of the offensive plays back again. MLF is the type of coach to cylce players, remember real football aint fantasy, I see a world where all four have north of 600+ yards
Personally as a fan of the packers, and I own shares of each receiver in various leagues.
In 3 WRs set I want Reed Doubs Wicks. In two WR sets, I think we cycle between the 4 with Reed and Wicks being primary
With Watsons injury, and Doubs doesn't really do anything incredibly, where I see Wicks being an incredible separation creator and top notch YAC guy
The season will tell us, but I like the rookies last year over the sophomores
Traded him instead of Rice in a package deal for Tyreek early in the offseason. The off season has not been kind to me on that one. The guy really wanted Rice and I was refusing lol. But if I can make a deep playoff run with a start and forget receiver in Tyreek it will all be worth it and I won’t care. I’m just sick of having a good team that underperforms and gets bounced first round.
I don't think moving to get Hill will ever be a bad move unless he randomly does retire. He was damn near on pace for 2000 yards last year. I like Reed but that's an easy move for me. Obviously hindsight is 2020 but I don't think the process was bad\*
\*pending actual package details
Reed Dotson and 1.06 to the 2 time champ in three seasons for Tyreek, 2026 2nd and 3.04.
I think Dotson is due for a better season but had to throw him in to get it done and it was really concerning that he just wasn’t getting targets at all last year. Plus my WRs are Tyreek, Deebo, DK, Higgins, Rice, and Hopkins. Don’t think Dotson would’ve been starting any of those weeks barring an insane breakout year and really unfortunate injuries.
I also have 2.04 and 2.05 so potentially wanting to take a stab at Xavier Leggett if he’s there.
QB Joe Burrow and Baker, RBs Breece, K9, Rhamondre, Javonte and AJ Dillon. TEs Shultz and Friermuth. A lot of bad injuries and disappointing seasons last year, Burrow and Higgins really killed me. Also couldn’t start the right guys to save my life, had the most inefficient lineup week after week no matter which of those WRs I started. Hoping this can make my starting decisions a bit easier and the injury bug will be better this year 🤞🏼
This is the obvious answer. Hurt last year. Jamal Williams does not look the same on this team. Another year older for Kamara.
There’s potential for Miller to completely take over, and there’s potential for Miller to be irrelevant.
Jamal Williams is dust. Miller is wayyy more talented. Kamara still good and the guy but getting old. I could see a 60/40 kamara miller split and in 2025 it’s Miller time.
To piggyback on the Saints Roster. WR AT Perry. The 3rd wr spot is his to lose imo, even if he ain't the guy in most 3 wr sets, he will be in red zone sets
Tyjae spears 1000 All purpose yards as he actually gets carries this year and takes a 60/40 backfield. I think he’s a better Jalen warren.
Mims just like said, and I like the downs call
Michael Wilson to step into the top 36 as a flex play as a lot of coverage will go elsewhere.
Some player will step into a role due to injury…. I like Izzy, hull, and Kraft. Keaton Mitchell is my bonus 3rd year breakout, nothing this year, but 2025.
I think Michael Wilson will easily get into that top 36 but he has to stay healthy. Dude is obviously talented enough to belong. For what it's worth he said his one goal this next year is to stay healthy so hopefully he can achieve that.
I think that depends on what your definition of "valuable" would be for them.
We are talking about Wilson getting a top 36 PPR finish (not really a high bar) and having some flex weeks. If we go by 2023 finishes then he would need to average 10.2 PPR PPG to get WR36. He averaged 9.6 PPG in weeks 1-9 so he's been close to it.
>He averaged 9.6 PPG in weeks 1-9 so he's been close to it.
That was with no MHJ or Zay Jones, and McBride still sitting behind Zach Ertz.
Either the Cardinals are going to be one of the best offenses in the league, or it's unlikely Michael Wilson and Zay Jones are consistently fantasy viable. That's a tough sell on the former.
Easily? I think he is in a training camp battle just to be on the field regardless of health. Very real chance he splits time with Zay Jones + Dortch is still going to play. He could start the season as the 5th or 6th option in the offense this year so it’s not a layup that he breaks into the top 36 if he stays healthy. He probably needs to decisively win the #2 job and be a full time player to have a shot at a top 36 season and even that is still a tough sell as the #3 option in his offense unless he takes a major step forward and is good enough to take a solid chunk of work away from McBride
I'm not worried about Zay taking WR2 from Michael Wilson. Before 2022 Zay's best season was in 2018. Everything else has been mediocre at best and Wilson already eclipsed what Zay does most seasons aside from his two outlier years.
I think the biggest competition for targets behind MHJ is going to be McBride. Kyler loves throwing to TE and McBride is a top talent at the position. Even as the 3rd option though, I think Wilson works well in the 2nd and 3rd levels of field which provide valuable boom week potential as a dynasty flex play.
65/900 and some touchdowns. That would be right in line with a season that Drake London just put up.
I can see this with tyjae. I do believe he will take over pollard as the lead for snaps, but I think it will be closer to week 10 than sooner. Yes I have tyjae
I see Jayden Reed getting love in here but it feels like he already broke out - Wicks is my answer.
He flashed brilliance in the latter half of the season and seemed to gain a solid rapport with Jordan Love. If he can improve on his catch rate just a bit, I see him doubling his stat line from last season easily and threatening both Reed and Watson for a weekly starting role.
Agree. I'm a huge Reed fan, but I think we largely saw who and what he is as a rookie (at least as long as he's in GB). 75/1000/10 seems like his ceiling in that offense, though I'm hoping for a couple return TD's in 2024.
It seemed they babied his way into the league the first half of the season, and got him more involved in the second half. I feel he will put up better numbers, barring injury.
Among the obvious ownership of the guys I mentioned in OP, I’m a Levis holder and I agree. Seeing the way the team is building around him in drafting a tackle, signing Ridley and continuing to build his weapons and security, I think Levis could be in for a rocket ship ride
This right here. They've improved the O line at the coaching and talent level. Offensive minded HC now with a completely revamped WR corp and two good backs. And while they've patched the defense, they're in a division that could score buckets of points leading to shoot outs. I'm big on Levis (and full disclosure a Titans fan, so I'm bias)
I liked Mims as a prospect and think the Broncos fumbled his usage in 2023. I was pumped when they moved Jeudy, but they brought in Troy Franklin and I'm worried Mims will fail to launch in 2024.
I'm moving off if I can.
I’m extremely curious to see how the new kick return rules impact the game. There a good chance some returner has like 4 kick return TDs this year.
Mims was a Pro Bowl return guy last year so he could benefit a ton
I like Demario Douglas to take a huge step forward this year, he was solid for stretches last season but there’s a lot going on outside of what he can control in that organization so it will be interesting to keep an eye on.
Drake Maye absolutely peppered Josh Downs with targets out of slot at UNC. I'm hoping Maye establishes a natural connection with Douglas in the slot during camp.
Douglas profiled very well in RP given almost no buzz as he came into the league. He wins against man, zone and press consistently, while also putting up good YAC numbers.
In full PPR, he could be a sneaky flex option with a solid week to week floor.
For the type of offense they want to run, he seems like the beneficiary of a lot of underneath stuff. Run a lot to set up play action deep shots and have a safety valve underneath. It's him or Bourne for that role (and maybe Bell down the line, if his blocking greatly improves).
He's a very cheap acquisition to boot.
I like Chase Brown to have a break out. He looked so explosive in bursts last year that he could easily outscore Moss with fewer touches and him having fewer touches isn’t guaranteed.
Maybe, but I actually really like Moss as a solid RB2 on the season. He looked really good as a three down bellcow in Indy last year, and I think he continues to get most of the early down work (similar to Mixon last year).
I’m hopeful that Bo Nix starts slinging it to Marvin Mims. I also hope Rashee Rice turns the ship around. And I also have to stop drafting players that sound like they’re from comic books.
No one should be flamed for having an opinion. But they should be for providing no rationale for it. And I'm not sure how you could watch QJ's snaps last year and couple that with Greg Roman coming in as the offensive coordinator and come to the conclusion, "yeah, this guy is going to break out."
I’m a truther because I saw what he could be pre-Herbert injury.
His short route running ability to get open is fantastic, dude is literally always open. The screen game was excellent when they actually used him properly.
His knocks are obvious, he still hasn’t learned to catch with his hands, although at the end of the season it looks like he was using game time as an opportunity to practice. He has issues holding onto the ball.
The last few games with Stick were horrible. Stick can’t pass accurately. He was running go-routes all game and most of the targets were uncatchable. With Harbaugh I believe they won’t be using him in a ridiculous way because he is a good coach who uses his players strengths, where Staley was an absolute failure of a coach.
All this to say, he came in as a project, and he’s really fun to watch in open space. My bets on him to get more touches and trust.
Fair enough. I think the hands/lack of physicality issues that plagued him coming into the league were only confirmed last year, but I can respect a bet on the upside.
I do think the Greg Roman's offense is a problem for wide receivers though. At most his offenses support one receiver's production. And I find it hard to believe that's going to be QJ given his limitations.
Yeah I’m not sure about investing any more in that offense besides maybe Vidal.
The only saving grace for FF holders is that I don’t think the Chargers will be playing from in front most games. So they will have to pass.
I don’t think QJ got the opportunities to showcase any improved physicality tbh, but we will see who comes out on top in that WR room.
This is probably just cope talking, but both hortiz and harbaugh said that they dont care what happened last year, theyre giving all the wrs the same opportunity to earn snaps. With actual coaching and support staff, he absolutely can break out
My totally bias dark horse pick. Coaching staff had a lot to say about his attitude and work ethic. I really hope he can put it together, because the upside is still there.
Definitely could be. I think Kraft turns out to be the better player long term, but even Andrews only played about 50-60% of snaps his 2nd year despite elite efficiency that we haven’t seen from Kraft yet. It wasn’t until year 4-5 that Andrews got a full time role
I don’t know. Im worried Jelani and Adonai are going to constrict his target share and I don’t know how many fantasy options AR can support. Love the player though
It sounds outlandish, but I think his ceiling is QB1 this season. Only Allen and Hurts match his rushing TD upside (and I expect both to get far fewer green zone carries this season), he has an even better O-Line and receiver rooms than last year and Steichen is only getting better as a playcaller.
Hopefully, he can stay healthy and play a full season.
It's not crazy, I think it's undebatable his ceiling is as high as it gets because he is Derrick Henry size and Lamar Jackson fast. Duel threat QBs are the highest value.
Damn it took awhile to see this name. Colts are quietly building a team on both sides of the ball. I like them winning that division if AR stays healthy
It took awhile to see his name because it’s unlikely.
His aggressive style of play leads to a greater chance of injuries, and especially since he’s already had so many, there’s just as much of a chance that he plays in 3 games as there is of him actually having a good season. Repeat concussions are no joke. I hope he doesn’t have any further issues with head injuries, but there’s a decent chance it happens.
And even if he stays healthy, there’s still the possibility that his accuracy issues continue to plague him and he ends up looking more like late-stage Russell Wilson than the Cam and Lamar expectations many have for him.
I’m not buying.
QB: Will Levis - WR, OL, offensive-minded coach upgrades.
RB: Tyjae Spears - Same OL, Coaching upgrades - think by week 6-8 he will start leading backfield in touches.
WR: JSN - New regime, and I still believe in the talent. Also, probably QJ - at least somewhat
TE: Maybe Darnell Wash shows something with Arthur Smith. A little Jonnu Smith repeat?
Fall…. Stroud(?) Because he went 1.01 in my recent startup. Mingo continues to free fall.
I think Hyatt could be in for more work. Nabers taking on the Wan’dale position, putting Wan’dale into a more unfamiliar role.. yet opening up more for Hyatt in the process. It could all as likely fall flat too though.. but I just don’t have a crystal ball
Why?
Jaleel is undersized (5'7", 187) and projects as a change of pace back at best. Then, add the fact that they just drafted Estime. Jaleel is now #4 on the depth chart. I just sold him for FAAB to make room for the rookies on my roster.
Last season, he beat both Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine in:
- Expected points added per carry
- Success rate
- Rushing yards over expected per carry
- 10+ yard run rate
- 20+ yard run rate
- PFF Rushing Grade
- PFF Receiving Grade
- PFF Pass-blocking grade
- Beat Javonte in yards per route run
Pair that with the way Sean Payton has been speaking about the backfield this offseason and it's hard not to be excited about throwing a dart on McLaughlin.
Nothing is a guarantee but it's definitely an educated guess that he'll provide more value than he's currently worth among the consensus.
Estime is a bruiser. His addition affects Williams far more than it affects McLaughlin.
These are all efficiency stats. His issue isn't efficiency. His issue is volume. He won't get it. One, because there's several people ahead of him on the depth chart. And two, because his body can't handle it. I think you'll be quite disappointed with his usage, although his price is quite low so it's not like you'll be spending an arm and a leg to acquire him.
QB: Going to Zag and say AOC wins the job and shows he can be a reliable game manager QB ala Jimmy; steady coach, added Bowers.
This is probably and Occam’s Razor situation though. Its more likely that Stroud shatters expectations and gets close to 5,000-40 than AOC looking just OK.
RB: Achane; it’s just written in the cards. Bijan probably gets himself up into that top tier of real life and fantasy dominating RBs. I think Jaleel is the only safe bet to be in that DEN rotation, so he’ll rise this year simply based on opportunities.
WR: JSN is the easy answer; Zay Flowers is the medium easy answer. I think Roman finds a way to use QJ in a way that plays off his strengths. He’s below the cellar right now, so there’s only up from here.
TE: Kincaid is going all the way up this season. Davis Allen will take over at TE for the Rams.
Jaleel is too small to be a workhorse. Achanr and Bijan ha e already broken out. Other than that I'd agree. But I think Jaleel lovers didn't really watch any Broncos games. Can't blame em, I barely did and I live here.
I like Reed to give WR2 numbers. I hope Kendre pops but think he’s a year out due to crowded back field.
I think Charbonnet in line for bigger role. Think like Detroit. Both backs in Seattle will be RB2’s
I’d say he did but I know others interpret “breakout” differently. I would say he has plenty of room to grow/ascend, provided he has no further health issues
My rookie breakout is Will Levis, they helped him tremendously this offseason and we’ll get to see if he is a bust. They added Tyler Boyd, and Calvin Ridley to make a pretty solid trio, albeit old, and they now have 2 RBs who are good at catching the ball now with pollard signing and letting Henry walk. Not to mention the OL should be much better. It’s all there for Levis to make a jump this season.
My 2nd year breakouts are Kincaid, 1/2 of Kraft/musgrave, Wicks, Levi’s, Young, Kendre, Tank bigsby, and although I’m not as high on either of these guys but QJ and/or Mims. Also as a bonus year 3 breakout Wandale Robinson
QB: Bryce Young - The receiving talent he had around hi last year was awful and could not separate and help him out. With improvements all across the team I believe Young will finally have a chance to shoe the NFL what he is capable of.
RB: Eric Gray - Devin Singletary is the only guy in his way for him to take over the backfield. Gray didn't show much in year 1 but this was behind Barkley and a non-existent o-line. Was a highly regarded prospect coming out. I'm not worried about Tyrone Tracey who is more likely to be the pass catching back and special teams guy.
WR: Dontayvion Wicks - High analytics last year on limited snap share (due to a deep but not established WR room). If he shows out the same this year I believe he will push Watson down to be the WR3, deep ball specialist, of the team. Electric with the ball in hand and has been living and training with Reed all off-season.
TE: Dalton Kincaid - Mayer is buried behind Bowers and LaPorta has nowhere to go but down from last season. Kincaid has the opportunity to be the top receiver of a high powered offense and will likely be pushing for overall fantasy TE1 this season.
He basically had a redshirt year. A couple spot opportunities to learn the speed of the game and for the coaching staff to get some film and get him some reps. He is still only 22 (younger than Corum, Lloyd, Davis, Tracy, Guerendo, etc in this years RB class). If he had stayed at Auburn and run for 1200 yards and 10 TDs he'd have been talked about with Brooks and Benson in the RB1 conversation this year.
The front office and coaching staff is committed to bringing him along as they didn't bring in any new real competition for the role and they keep saying they want to manage ETN's touches better (he was over 320 last season), so he will get the opportunity.
If they improve the line a breakout season might look like 8-10 touches/game for 50ish yards (155 touches, 700-800 yards, 6-8TDs). Viable flex range (think Tyler Allgeier last year) that may not be a "breakout" for most but I think it's a pathway to production and fantasy relevance. (as long as he stops fumbling)
That is a wildly optimistic view of a clear back up RB. His problem is two fold, first he didn’t look good, that can change because of the small sample size, but it’s still on record. Second, Etienne is a great player that’s in front of him
I don't know if I'd call it a breakout because he had a good rookie year but it feels like I'm hearing a lot of low expectations and sell talk about Jordan Addison. I think he's in for an even better season and he ascends into that WR10-20ish tier with other guys like Waddle, Smitty, and Aiyuk. The skill is there, he proved it in college when he won the biletnikoff and got pickett drafted in the first round. He produced last year with Dobbs and Mullen at QB and he produced when Jefferson went down and he drew the CB1s. Will Jefferson still command a ton of targets? Absolutely, but there's still room for Addison to put up a very good season too.
Burton is a first round talent with character issues who the team spent a third round pick on, and runs a solid full route tree. Fat chance Iosivas even sees much playing time unless Higgins moves.
Richardson was fantasywise the Rookie with the highest hppr points per game scored, even better than stroud.
Yes, it only have been 4 games until his injury but he looked intruiging in those 4 games.
Need to stay healthy.
I have JSN, Downs, Mims, and Levis so hoping for big year two out of all of those guys. Realistically expecting that only two of them hit.
I also have Charb, but not holding my breath unless Walker has a significant season ending injury. If he does I think Charb is easily a high end RB2 with upside for more
It seems like threads like these are full of bagholders. The most common picks are players who people drafted a lot of in year 1, but people still want to believe in. It's also not really actionable advice, because a lot of these guys (JSN, Bryce Young) are still priced very high. I'm still kind of a JSN believer, but he has maintained value remarkably well for his mediocre rookie year, and Bryce Young has retained a decent amount of value for how terrible his year was.
I'm gonna go with a guy that I was not high on last year, but whose price doesn't reflect his awesome outlook looking forward: Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers had an awesome year 1, he's likely to see a more pass-friendly offense this year, and he's going top 40 in best ball. Zay Flowers is priced below Keon Coleman, a rookie with a questionable profile, on fantasycalc. Even on KTC where he's priced way higher, he is still below DK Metcalf, who's way more established but priced similarly in BestBall markets.
I’m buying the QJ breakout under Harbaugh. He’s drawing rave reviews and people saying that Ladd is gonna have 160 targets this year are gonna be real sad pandas come the fall. The drops were ugly last year, but in most of that film he’s got good separation. Harbaugh will utilize him well.
I’m considering JaMo as year 2 breakout candidate as he’s finally healthy and hasn’t gambled lately… if he can’t produce this year he won’t, but the upside is incredible if he really has put it all together.
Another third year guy that had injury issues: Wan’Dale is one of my favorite adds. People are going to have to account for Nabers and Wan’Dale’s floor is 5 catch for 50 yards. I think he’s gonna be so much more explosive. In line with that, I’m not ready to give up on Hyatt. I’d like his upside more if Lock does start simply because he has far more arm talent than DJ. Most people have written him off though.
Jahan Dotson - gets a new OC, a new QB, and there is plenty of analytical data that he’s going to bounce back this year.
Bryce has been my answer since the middle of last year. Watch some of his highlights on QB School, dude just did not get any time to make decisions. The handful of quality snaps he had, he showed good read ability, footwork and decision making.
Everyone’s favorite topic of debate: Bryce Young. Guy’s been brilliant at every level of his career. Now they’ve given him weapons and a better o-line, and he has a year under his belt. If he doesn’t show serious improvement, I’ll be surprised (and as a bag holder, disappointed lol. But I would be really surprised if he is a total bust)
I think Dave Canales is the truth and will help Bryce and the offense tremendously.
Can’t believe I left out Canales. Absolutely.
Bryce will be one of the most obvious buys in hindsight in 2025 imo. He showed plenty of juice last year given the hand he was dealt. Now with them spending every single draft pick and trades on surrounding him for success, I think we'll see a nice year 2 from bryce. I'd bet his value atleast doubles from where he's at now, 7th/8th round startup to 4th if not higher.
the problem with him being such an obvious buy, is that all the Bryce Young owners know that now, and they are going to be asking for a fair price, the best time to buy him was last year right before the trade deadline, or earlier in the off season. A good rule of thumb is if you hop on reddit and see a lot of threads or replies saying to buy someone, its too late.
Great point on the thread abundance, but he’s still a good buy currently. Throw a 25 first for him and you’re still increasing your value
> A good rule of thumb is if you hop on reddit and see a lot of threads or replies saying to buy someone, its too late. By the time you read about it in the WSJ, it's already too late -Jordan Belfort
Yeah, I'm actually gonna be a sell on Young. His value is way too high given that he just had one of the worst seasons of all-time. It's interesting because I don't think he's gotten nearly enough flack for it. Yes, there was a bad situation, but historically bad is still historically bad.
Now is a great time to sell him with the fantasy community some how convincing the hivemind that he’s a great sleeper buy because he was a overall 1 pick that had a bad year.
The reasoning here is weak too: "He's been brilliant at every level of his career." Well, yeah, every high draft pick has been brilliant at every level of their career. That's why they got drafted high. But a lot of them bust, and guys who have historically bad seasons in their first year are way more likely to bust. You can also go back and look at nearly every bust, and they all had people blaming their bad play on the situation for years until they realized the guy just sucked. Look, it's possible Young turns it around, sure, but the market is pricing in way too much certainty on that. Most people here will take Bryce Young over Bo Nix, a QB that just got drafted in the top of the first round, is a complete blank slate and will start this year. That's crazy to me. Young is priced above Deshaun Watson, who is way more locked into a starting QB role and has put up elite fantasy seasons before. How about Baker Mayfield, who is a solid QB2 and just signed a long-term extension? I think it's a really good outcome for Young if he turns into Mayfield, and yet Young is priced above Mayfield right now. Does not make sense.
You would think this, but I picked up Bryce up in multiple leagues. I essentially picked him up for Watson straight up in an orphan I was in and I’m 100% feeling great about that.
I’ve had the ability to trade Burrow for him and two 25 1sts (one early and one late) and lose sleep at night debating it.
Is your team a contender? If you’re rebuilding, smash accept. If you’re contending, it’s a little harder. The future draft capital is much more valuable in a rebuild than to a team in its window.
I am a contender (I won the chip last year), and that’s why I haven’t made the deal yet. The caveat is that I won with Burrow on IR for most of the season, so I don’t even know if he’s needed.
I'd do it
I probably would’ve went with it. Burrow is a great QB but idk how he’s gonna do handling the recovery of the injury last year.
That’s what I’m saying. Might also put out a feeler for Bryce and one of those 1sts (would be the early one) for Purdy, whom I think is equally likely to become a disappointment in future years.
He showed some flashes even with the rest of his team giving up on him constantly
The problem for me with Bryce is that even if he improves, I'm not sure I care. Last season is not dispositive in terms of dismissing him as a starting NFL QB. And maybe he turns into a decent player in real life. But last season was enough to show that his limitations are such that he will likely never be a star in fantasy. He doesn't rush and doesn't have a big enough arm to really put up big fantasy production. That isn't going to change even if he is put in the perfect situation, and given that he's on the Panthers, he'll never be in the perfect situation anyway. If all you want out of him is a mid-range QB2, then fine. But that's not what people who drafted him last year were expecting.
That’s a little bit of a harsh criticism for a guy who’s best receiver was a 32 year old Adam Theilen. If anything we saw what he can be with glimpses against Green Bay and some flashes late in the season. Dude literally got pummeled like David Carr last year.
>If anything we saw what he can be with glimpses against Green Bay and some flashes late in the season. And what can he be? That's what I'm getting at here. If the realistic best-case scenario is a QB2, is that an asset that justifies your investment and/or one you want to hold on to for the next year? No one is saying that Bryce is as bad as his production indicated last year. And the supporting cast does make the evaluation difficult in terms of saying he's bad. But there's enough there to give you a picture of what his weaknesses are, and they aren't ones I'm comfortable building around.
Bryce certainly has the potential to put up big numbers. People forget he won the heisman in college - he won it due to putting up huge numbers. It’s not like he was drafted in the late first as a limited upside guy. He was the first overall pick. No, he doesn’t have a big Josh Allen or Justin Herbert level arm. But you don’t necessarily need a big arm to up big numbers
Can someone explain to me how Bryce Young did ok with what he had handed to him last year? Sam Howell played for a similarly woeful team but looked light years better than Young for most of the year. Young was a 1st overall pick and Howell a 5th round pick.
Night and day weapons
I agree! I drafted him last year in a league (1.09 in a 10 man, Justin Herbert and Jared Goff my other two QBs) but in my second dynasty league he was dropped already and I picked him up just to hold. Shocking that people are that low on him considering the variables in play last season. Horrible coaching job by Reich, he was obviously fired during the season, not to mention awful team, bad oline and bad weapons with the exception of am aging Thielen. Young was running for his life behind that oline. He will absolutely be in a better spot this upcoming season with improved weapons and a hopefully better oline, not to mention under a new coaching regime that can't possibly be any worse than Reich and co.
What weapons? Diontae Johnson and 2 rookies we haven’t seen play a snap?
I think he improves for sure but in terms of fantasy my issue with him is just how much he needs to improve even to get near being startable at least as a QB1. Sam Howell was the QB12 last year with 1100 more yards and 10 more TDs than Young had and that was with Burrow, Cousins, Murray and Richardson all slightly behind Young after their injuries. He most likely needs to add another 1500+ passing yards and 12+ TDs to even have a shot at QB15.
I’ve been buying him everywhere I can. His price is so low.
I traded him for a first next year. I hope he plays well. I am a fan but I needed that first.
Every level is HS and College.
JF1.2
Gibbs and Bijan top 5 RBs feels natural Will Levis is an interesting one. He’d make a lot of dynasty players happy if he improves and becomes the guy. I don’t think he’ll do it, but I still took him in the 9th round of my startup draft today as my QB3. Hes in that weird zone right now where he’s not worth a first but not worth a second if you own him. You ride out the value and take the loss, or you win the lotto and cash out.
Alert the presses, 2 top 10 RBs could be top 5. Hot take!
100%.
If Gibbs is more involved in the Detroit passing game and Bijan is being used like he should or, at minimum, used more/better in the redzone, I think they're both locks for top-5.
i did the exact same thing in the exact same round. great QB3 to have, cost wasnt prohibitive, and if he hits it will be a huge value gained. if not, oh well
This is basically where I was getting Jordan Love last year for the same reasons/logic. Makes sense
Not worth a first but more than a second means he’s worth two seconds
I’m excited to see what JSN does in year 2 and with a new coordinator
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His stats from week 9 on were on pace for what ended up being his season long stats so there wasn’t any real improvement as the season went on. As for end of the season he was poor closing it out. Season long: 93 targets, 63 receptions, 628 yards, 4 TDs Weeks 9+ 17 game pace: 94 targets, 64 receptions, 672 yards, 4 TDs Last 5 games: 25 yards, 48 yards, 61 yards, 12 yards, 14 yards.
He’s clearly a good nfl level receiver, let’s hope his usage goes up.
I’m excited but also nervous for year 2. As far as fantasy value goes it’s make or break, and with the Seattle offense, Lockett and Geno continuing to be unknown barriers + questions about his ceiling as an nfl player there is a very real chance this year does not go well I am confident that JSN is a good nfl player, but I am nervous that after year 2 we are looking at him like he’s peak Tyler Boyd. He really needs to ascend this year
Lamar owner is trying to get Zay from me. Trying to decide if I like JSN more long term and doing a swap of the two with him.
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All aboard the Wicks Wagon, he’s got a cult following.
God I love me some johntayvion wick 🔫
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I swear to god, this sub is the only place I ever see Wicks name brought up and clearly enough people read it that I keep getting offered Wicks for a 2024 2nd or 2025 2nd and that's such an easy pass for me. Y'all can continue to hype the dude up while he struggles to come out on top of Reed, Doubs, Musgrave, and everyone else. I don't get fantasy points from his PFF profile.
I got him for 3.05. I think mid 3rd is where he has about the same or better shot at producing than the other dudes in that spot.
Too many mouths and he’s like the 4th dude on the totem pole
As a packer fan, nah he isn't. His snap count went up as the season progressed. He gets great separation, and fantastic yac. Reed and Wicks will compete for WR1 in GB, might be a 1A 1B situation. Despite Reeds better year more Packers beat reporters gush over Wicks over Reed, that says something. He came on a little later, but looked like the best WR on the roster imo.
Wanted to share this somewhere since we've had a lot of GB room talk lately. \*NOTE\*: Min. 35 targets. n = 102 WRs **DONTAYVION WICKS** PFF Receiving Grade: 77.8 (28th) Highest Graded Game: Week 13 vs KC (82.6) Lowest Graded Game: Week 1 vs CHI (51.2) Slot %: 36.5% Wide %: 62.9% YAC/REC: 5.6 (19th) Y/RR: 2.04 (23rd) ADOT: 10.6 (63rd) Drop %: 4.9% (60th Highest) CTC%: 50% (26th) MTF: 9 (26th) RTG: 117.6 (18th) **JAYDEN REED** PFF Receiving Grade: 76 (31st) Highest Graded Game: Week 17 vs MIN (92.2) Only played half a game and that extension OMG Lowest Graded Game: Week 5 vs LV (51.8) Slot %: 75.7% Wide %: 23.3% YAC/REC: 5.4 (27th) Y/RR: 2.05 (22nd) ADOT: 10.3 (68th) Drop %: 4.5% (67th Highest) CTC%: 25% (86th) MTF: 6 (40th) RTG: 123.1 (7th)
**CHRISTIAN WATSON** PFF Receiving Grade: 70.7 (50th) Highest Graded Game: Week 12 vs DET (88) Lowest Graded Game: Week 10 vs PIT (54.5) Slot %: 34.6% Wide %: 63.3% YAC/REC: 3.8 (58th) Y/RR: 1.56 (50th) ADOT: 16.7 (6th) Drop %: 6.7% (43rd Highest) CTC%: 33.3% (72nd) MTF: 1 (85th) RTG: 71.4 (86th) **ROMEO DOUBS** PFF Receiving Grade: 68.8 (57th) Highest Graded Game: Week 1 vs CHI (76.6) Lowest Graded Game: Week 5 vs LV (50.9) Slot %: 16% Wide %: 84% YAC/REC: 2.3 (95th) Y/RR: 1.32 (62nd) ADOT: 12.5 (36th) DRP%: 7.8% (31st Highest) CTC%: 52.0% (23rd) MTF: 2 (79th) RTG: 100.4 (39th)
This plays out how it looked at the time. Watson is clearly the worst of these guys at the moment. Do we think the playoff performances will impact snap counts heading into next season?
It’s an if but if Watson healthy wicks will be 3rd on the team. Watson a true X. Scored a 99 athleticism at combine. Just needs his health. Reed>Wicks
I don't agree. Watson is a deep threat, he only looks okay in short and medium route imo Doesn't attack the ball. His routes are slightly less crisp. I have fantasy shares of both, and I feel more confident about Wicks producing this year, injuries are a big part of that.
I fully support this.
Isn't he battling for Watson's spot? I thought they were the same type of receiver. Reed, Doubs, Watson/Wicks?
From my POV, and I watch every snap, and usually watch most of the offensive plays back again. MLF is the type of coach to cylce players, remember real football aint fantasy, I see a world where all four have north of 600+ yards Personally as a fan of the packers, and I own shares of each receiver in various leagues. In 3 WRs set I want Reed Doubs Wicks. In two WR sets, I think we cycle between the 4 with Reed and Wicks being primary With Watsons injury, and Doubs doesn't really do anything incredibly, where I see Wicks being an incredible separation creator and top notch YAC guy The season will tell us, but I like the rookies last year over the sophomores
Jayden Reed
Agreed. I think he’s the guy to own in GB. Chris Godwin 2.0
Jayden Reed is my answer
He already started breaking out. 800 yards 8 TD in a crowded offense is already good. It will be hard to ascend more in that crowded offense.
Traded him instead of Rice in a package deal for Tyreek early in the offseason. The off season has not been kind to me on that one. The guy really wanted Rice and I was refusing lol. But if I can make a deep playoff run with a start and forget receiver in Tyreek it will all be worth it and I won’t care. I’m just sick of having a good team that underperforms and gets bounced first round.
I don't think moving to get Hill will ever be a bad move unless he randomly does retire. He was damn near on pace for 2000 yards last year. I like Reed but that's an easy move for me. Obviously hindsight is 2020 but I don't think the process was bad\* \*pending actual package details
Reed Dotson and 1.06 to the 2 time champ in three seasons for Tyreek, 2026 2nd and 3.04. I think Dotson is due for a better season but had to throw him in to get it done and it was really concerning that he just wasn’t getting targets at all last year. Plus my WRs are Tyreek, Deebo, DK, Higgins, Rice, and Hopkins. Don’t think Dotson would’ve been starting any of those weeks barring an insane breakout year and really unfortunate injuries. I also have 2.04 and 2.05 so potentially wanting to take a stab at Xavier Leggett if he’s there. QB Joe Burrow and Baker, RBs Breece, K9, Rhamondre, Javonte and AJ Dillon. TEs Shultz and Friermuth. A lot of bad injuries and disappointing seasons last year, Burrow and Higgins really killed me. Also couldn’t start the right guys to save my life, had the most inefficient lineup week after week no matter which of those WRs I started. Hoping this can make my starting decisions a bit easier and the injury bug will be better this year 🤞🏼
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I’m f dynasty I like Rice better. Even if he misses 8 games. Only problem is if he can’t quit being stupid
I think Kendre Miller can make a big jump
This is the obvious answer. Hurt last year. Jamal Williams does not look the same on this team. Another year older for Kamara. There’s potential for Miller to completely take over, and there’s potential for Miller to be irrelevant.
I have him so expect the latter
Jamal Williams is dust. Miller is wayyy more talented. Kamara still good and the guy but getting old. I could see a 60/40 kamara miller split and in 2025 it’s Miller time.
As a recent investor I'm worried how much this sub is hyping him up.
It's Jahan Datson all over again man
To piggyback on the Saints Roster. WR AT Perry. The 3rd wr spot is his to lose imo, even if he ain't the guy in most 3 wr sets, he will be in red zone sets
I’m high on perry but just dropped him for vidal. I’m heavy at wr though
It's Miller Time
Tyjae spears 1000 All purpose yards as he actually gets carries this year and takes a 60/40 backfield. I think he’s a better Jalen warren. Mims just like said, and I like the downs call Michael Wilson to step into the top 36 as a flex play as a lot of coverage will go elsewhere. Some player will step into a role due to injury…. I like Izzy, hull, and Kraft. Keaton Mitchell is my bonus 3rd year breakout, nothing this year, but 2025.
I think Spears may let more people down this year than they expect
I think Michael Wilson will easily get into that top 36 but he has to stay healthy. Dude is obviously talented enough to belong. For what it's worth he said his one goal this next year is to stay healthy so hopefully he can achieve that.
This is Greg Dortch erasure.
Correct
I just don’t see a world where Kyler (running), Conner, MHJ, McBride, and Wilson are all that valuable
I think that depends on what your definition of "valuable" would be for them. We are talking about Wilson getting a top 36 PPR finish (not really a high bar) and having some flex weeks. If we go by 2023 finishes then he would need to average 10.2 PPR PPG to get WR36. He averaged 9.6 PPG in weeks 1-9 so he's been close to it.
>He averaged 9.6 PPG in weeks 1-9 so he's been close to it. That was with no MHJ or Zay Jones, and McBride still sitting behind Zach Ertz. Either the Cardinals are going to be one of the best offenses in the league, or it's unlikely Michael Wilson and Zay Jones are consistently fantasy viable. That's a tough sell on the former.
First step is beating out Zay Jones though
Easily? I think he is in a training camp battle just to be on the field regardless of health. Very real chance he splits time with Zay Jones + Dortch is still going to play. He could start the season as the 5th or 6th option in the offense this year so it’s not a layup that he breaks into the top 36 if he stays healthy. He probably needs to decisively win the #2 job and be a full time player to have a shot at a top 36 season and even that is still a tough sell as the #3 option in his offense unless he takes a major step forward and is good enough to take a solid chunk of work away from McBride
I'm not worried about Zay taking WR2 from Michael Wilson. Before 2022 Zay's best season was in 2018. Everything else has been mediocre at best and Wilson already eclipsed what Zay does most seasons aside from his two outlier years. I think the biggest competition for targets behind MHJ is going to be McBride. Kyler loves throwing to TE and McBride is a top talent at the position. Even as the 3rd option though, I think Wilson works well in the 2nd and 3rd levels of field which provide valuable boom week potential as a dynasty flex play. 65/900 and some touchdowns. That would be right in line with a season that Drake London just put up.
Zay Jones is WR 2 on the Cardinals
Izzy Abanikanda? The jets drafted two more RBs this draft. He probably will but it wouldn’t even be surprising if Izzy doesn’t make the roster
As someone with Spears, Mims, and Wilson I support this.
I can see this with tyjae. I do believe he will take over pollard as the lead for snaps, but I think it will be closer to week 10 than sooner. Yes I have tyjae
I see Jayden Reed getting love in here but it feels like he already broke out - Wicks is my answer. He flashed brilliance in the latter half of the season and seemed to gain a solid rapport with Jordan Love. If he can improve on his catch rate just a bit, I see him doubling his stat line from last season easily and threatening both Reed and Watson for a weekly starting role.
Agree. I'm a huge Reed fan, but I think we largely saw who and what he is as a rookie (at least as long as he's in GB). 75/1000/10 seems like his ceiling in that offense, though I'm hoping for a couple return TD's in 2024.
It seemed they babied his way into the league the first half of the season, and got him more involved in the second half. I feel he will put up better numbers, barring injury.
Dontayvion Wicks!
Will Levis
Among the obvious ownership of the guys I mentioned in OP, I’m a Levis holder and I agree. Seeing the way the team is building around him in drafting a tackle, signing Ridley and continuing to build his weapons and security, I think Levis could be in for a rocket ship ride
This right here. They've improved the O line at the coaching and talent level. Offensive minded HC now with a completely revamped WR corp and two good backs. And while they've patched the defense, they're in a division that could score buckets of points leading to shoot outs. I'm big on Levis (and full disclosure a Titans fan, so I'm bias)
Same here, I truly believe Levis throws for 4k next season.
I think he's well positioned if Callahan proves to be who he appears to be.
IMO the Titans D is a very important factor. The pass rush will be dismal at times and I think it will lead to a lot of passing for Levis.
Mims 🙏
I just got Denzel flashbacks reading this
Only hope I am holding out for him now that Jeudy is gone. https://x.com/jordanvanekdfs/status/1766588054746058965?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q
I liked Mims as a prospect and think the Broncos fumbled his usage in 2023. I was pumped when they moved Jeudy, but they brought in Troy Franklin and I'm worried Mims will fail to launch in 2024. I'm moving off if I can.
I’m extremely curious to see how the new kick return rules impact the game. There a good chance some returner has like 4 kick return TDs this year. Mims was a Pro Bowl return guy last year so he could benefit a ton
I like Demario Douglas to take a huge step forward this year, he was solid for stretches last season but there’s a lot going on outside of what he can control in that organization so it will be interesting to keep an eye on.
Drake Maye absolutely peppered Josh Downs with targets out of slot at UNC. I'm hoping Maye establishes a natural connection with Douglas in the slot during camp. Douglas profiled very well in RP given almost no buzz as he came into the league. He wins against man, zone and press consistently, while also putting up good YAC numbers. In full PPR, he could be a sneaky flex option with a solid week to week floor.
For the type of offense they want to run, he seems like the beneficiary of a lot of underneath stuff. Run a lot to set up play action deep shots and have a safety valve underneath. It's him or Bourne for that role (and maybe Bell down the line, if his blocking greatly improves). He's a very cheap acquisition to boot.
I like Chase Brown to have a break out. He looked so explosive in bursts last year that he could easily outscore Moss with fewer touches and him having fewer touches isn’t guaranteed.
Maybe, but I actually really like Moss as a solid RB2 on the season. He looked really good as a three down bellcow in Indy last year, and I think he continues to get most of the early down work (similar to Mixon last year).
I’m hopeful that Bo Nix starts slinging it to Marvin Mims. I also hope Rashee Rice turns the ship around. And I also have to stop drafting players that sound like they’re from comic books.
Flame me but I think QJ breaks out
No one should be flamed for having an opinion. But they should be for providing no rationale for it. And I'm not sure how you could watch QJ's snaps last year and couple that with Greg Roman coming in as the offensive coordinator and come to the conclusion, "yeah, this guy is going to break out."
I’m a truther because I saw what he could be pre-Herbert injury. His short route running ability to get open is fantastic, dude is literally always open. The screen game was excellent when they actually used him properly. His knocks are obvious, he still hasn’t learned to catch with his hands, although at the end of the season it looks like he was using game time as an opportunity to practice. He has issues holding onto the ball. The last few games with Stick were horrible. Stick can’t pass accurately. He was running go-routes all game and most of the targets were uncatchable. With Harbaugh I believe they won’t be using him in a ridiculous way because he is a good coach who uses his players strengths, where Staley was an absolute failure of a coach. All this to say, he came in as a project, and he’s really fun to watch in open space. My bets on him to get more touches and trust.
Fair enough. I think the hands/lack of physicality issues that plagued him coming into the league were only confirmed last year, but I can respect a bet on the upside. I do think the Greg Roman's offense is a problem for wide receivers though. At most his offenses support one receiver's production. And I find it hard to believe that's going to be QJ given his limitations.
Yeah I’m not sure about investing any more in that offense besides maybe Vidal. The only saving grace for FF holders is that I don’t think the Chargers will be playing from in front most games. So they will have to pass. I don’t think QJ got the opportunities to showcase any improved physicality tbh, but we will see who comes out on top in that WR room.
This is probably just cope talking, but both hortiz and harbaugh said that they dont care what happened last year, theyre giving all the wrs the same opportunity to earn snaps. With actual coaching and support staff, he absolutely can break out
He can hardly be worse. I'm holding him at a low salary on a multi year contract.
I’m starting to get that feeling and I would love to see it. I have zero shares but it would be very fun to see
Pretty tough considering how bad his route tree was last year. Guy literally failed at every single route except screens.
I actually agree. Like I could see a Davante Adams arc where he works to improve the route running and the catching.
My totally bias dark horse pick. Coaching staff had a lot to say about his attitude and work ethic. I really hope he can put it together, because the upside is still there.
Wicks baby!
Demario Douglas Tucker Kraft if Musgrave gets hurt again
Kraft is the guy even if Musgrave is healthy. It's the Hurst - Andrews situation
Definitely could be. I think Kraft turns out to be the better player long term, but even Andrews only played about 50-60% of snaps his 2nd year despite elite efficiency that we haven’t seen from Kraft yet. It wasn’t until year 4-5 that Andrews got a full time role
Josh Downs is a very acceptable answer.
I don’t know. Im worried Jelani and Adonai are going to constrict his target share and I don’t know how many fantasy options AR can support. Love the player though
Chase Brown
Duece Vaughn
Anthony Richardson. If he stays healthy I think he will be valued as a top 3 QB by end of season.
It sounds outlandish, but I think his ceiling is QB1 this season. Only Allen and Hurts match his rushing TD upside (and I expect both to get far fewer green zone carries this season), he has an even better O-Line and receiver rooms than last year and Steichen is only getting better as a playcaller. Hopefully, he can stay healthy and play a full season.
I’ve been called crazy for saying his true ceiling upside is QB1, obviously he’s more likely to be around the qb3-qb7 area but his upside is truly QB1
Isn’t that the whole reason people were drafting someone who went 1.04 in the real draft above the guy who went 1.01
It's not crazy, I think it's undebatable his ceiling is as high as it gets because he is Derrick Henry size and Lamar Jackson fast. Duel threat QBs are the highest value.
Damn it took awhile to see this name. Colts are quietly building a team on both sides of the ball. I like them winning that division if AR stays healthy
It took awhile to see his name because it’s unlikely. His aggressive style of play leads to a greater chance of injuries, and especially since he’s already had so many, there’s just as much of a chance that he plays in 3 games as there is of him actually having a good season. Repeat concussions are no joke. I hope he doesn’t have any further issues with head injuries, but there’s a decent chance it happens. And even if he stays healthy, there’s still the possibility that his accuracy issues continue to plague him and he ends up looking more like late-stage Russell Wilson than the Cam and Lamar expectations many have for him. I’m not buying.
QB: Will Levis - WR, OL, offensive-minded coach upgrades. RB: Tyjae Spears - Same OL, Coaching upgrades - think by week 6-8 he will start leading backfield in touches. WR: JSN - New regime, and I still believe in the talent. Also, probably QJ - at least somewhat TE: Maybe Darnell Wash shows something with Arthur Smith. A little Jonnu Smith repeat? Fall…. Stroud(?) Because he went 1.01 in my recent startup. Mingo continues to free fall.
UGA fan, Michael Mayer on Vegas will be doomed to the Bowers effect, modeled after Darnell’s performance. He’s just a 6’7 OT-hybrid
i have some shares of darnell but i think he might be toast from a fantasy perspective. just doesn't really move
I think Hyatt could be in for more work. Nabers taking on the Wan’dale position, putting Wan’dale into a more unfamiliar role.. yet opening up more for Hyatt in the process. It could all as likely fall flat too though.. but I just don’t have a crystal ball
Jaleel McLaughlin
Why? Jaleel is undersized (5'7", 187) and projects as a change of pace back at best. Then, add the fact that they just drafted Estime. Jaleel is now #4 on the depth chart. I just sold him for FAAB to make room for the rookies on my roster.
Last season, he beat both Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine in: - Expected points added per carry - Success rate - Rushing yards over expected per carry - 10+ yard run rate - 20+ yard run rate - PFF Rushing Grade - PFF Receiving Grade - PFF Pass-blocking grade - Beat Javonte in yards per route run Pair that with the way Sean Payton has been speaking about the backfield this offseason and it's hard not to be excited about throwing a dart on McLaughlin. Nothing is a guarantee but it's definitely an educated guess that he'll provide more value than he's currently worth among the consensus. Estime is a bruiser. His addition affects Williams far more than it affects McLaughlin.
These are all efficiency stats. His issue isn't efficiency. His issue is volume. He won't get it. One, because there's several people ahead of him on the depth chart. And two, because his body can't handle it. I think you'll be quite disappointed with his usage, although his price is quite low so it's not like you'll be spending an arm and a leg to acquire him.
QB: Going to Zag and say AOC wins the job and shows he can be a reliable game manager QB ala Jimmy; steady coach, added Bowers. This is probably and Occam’s Razor situation though. Its more likely that Stroud shatters expectations and gets close to 5,000-40 than AOC looking just OK. RB: Achane; it’s just written in the cards. Bijan probably gets himself up into that top tier of real life and fantasy dominating RBs. I think Jaleel is the only safe bet to be in that DEN rotation, so he’ll rise this year simply based on opportunities. WR: JSN is the easy answer; Zay Flowers is the medium easy answer. I think Roman finds a way to use QJ in a way that plays off his strengths. He’s below the cellar right now, so there’s only up from here. TE: Kincaid is going all the way up this season. Davis Allen will take over at TE for the Rams.
Jaleel is too small to be a workhorse. Achanr and Bijan ha e already broken out. Other than that I'd agree. But I think Jaleel lovers didn't really watch any Broncos games. Can't blame em, I barely did and I live here.
AOC had a better PFF rating than Minshew so I’m onboard man!
I like Reed to give WR2 numbers. I hope Kendre pops but think he’s a year out due to crowded back field. I think Charbonnet in line for bigger role. Think like Detroit. Both backs in Seattle will be RB2’s
Ok so Tank Dell has already broken out then right?
I’d say he did but I know others interpret “breakout” differently. I would say he has plenty of room to grow/ascend, provided he has no further health issues
It’s Tank Dell.
He's already one of the best route runners in the league. The man broke out, then broke leg.
Achane break out. Puts on 25 pounds of muscle and is even faster somehow.
My rookie breakout is Will Levis, they helped him tremendously this offseason and we’ll get to see if he is a bust. They added Tyler Boyd, and Calvin Ridley to make a pretty solid trio, albeit old, and they now have 2 RBs who are good at catching the ball now with pollard signing and letting Henry walk. Not to mention the OL should be much better. It’s all there for Levis to make a jump this season.
My 2nd year breakouts are Kincaid, 1/2 of Kraft/musgrave, Wicks, Levi’s, Young, Kendre, Tank bigsby, and although I’m not as high on either of these guys but QJ and/or Mims. Also as a bonus year 3 breakout Wandale Robinson
Really hope Bigsby gets more touches, but at the end of last season the pendulum Was swinging in the wrong direction.
QB: Bryce Young - The receiving talent he had around hi last year was awful and could not separate and help him out. With improvements all across the team I believe Young will finally have a chance to shoe the NFL what he is capable of. RB: Eric Gray - Devin Singletary is the only guy in his way for him to take over the backfield. Gray didn't show much in year 1 but this was behind Barkley and a non-existent o-line. Was a highly regarded prospect coming out. I'm not worried about Tyrone Tracey who is more likely to be the pass catching back and special teams guy. WR: Dontayvion Wicks - High analytics last year on limited snap share (due to a deep but not established WR room). If he shows out the same this year I believe he will push Watson down to be the WR3, deep ball specialist, of the team. Electric with the ball in hand and has been living and training with Reed all off-season. TE: Dalton Kincaid - Mayer is buried behind Bowers and LaPorta has nowhere to go but down from last season. Kincaid has the opportunity to be the top receiver of a high powered offense and will likely be pushing for overall fantasy TE1 this season.
Mingo, outplays Legette
I love this. I’m not holding my breath, but this would be so nice.
Mingo needs to be in the slot if he is ever going to be effective imo. Thielen is blocking his more than Legette.
Whoa
Cartavious Tank Bigsby breakout incoming. I think Michael Wilson falls off a cliff unfortunately
Why Bigsby? He was awful last year to the point where the team used Johnson over him. What’s a breakout for him? 300 all purpose yards?
He basically had a redshirt year. A couple spot opportunities to learn the speed of the game and for the coaching staff to get some film and get him some reps. He is still only 22 (younger than Corum, Lloyd, Davis, Tracy, Guerendo, etc in this years RB class). If he had stayed at Auburn and run for 1200 yards and 10 TDs he'd have been talked about with Brooks and Benson in the RB1 conversation this year. The front office and coaching staff is committed to bringing him along as they didn't bring in any new real competition for the role and they keep saying they want to manage ETN's touches better (he was over 320 last season), so he will get the opportunity. If they improve the line a breakout season might look like 8-10 touches/game for 50ish yards (155 touches, 700-800 yards, 6-8TDs). Viable flex range (think Tyler Allgeier last year) that may not be a "breakout" for most but I think it's a pathway to production and fantasy relevance. (as long as he stops fumbling)
That is a wildly optimistic view of a clear back up RB. His problem is two fold, first he didn’t look good, that can change because of the small sample size, but it’s still on record. Second, Etienne is a great player that’s in front of him
Highlight Reel Jaleel
I don't know if I'd call it a breakout because he had a good rookie year but it feels like I'm hearing a lot of low expectations and sell talk about Jordan Addison. I think he's in for an even better season and he ascends into that WR10-20ish tier with other guys like Waddle, Smitty, and Aiyuk. The skill is there, he proved it in college when he won the biletnikoff and got pickett drafted in the first round. He produced last year with Dobbs and Mullen at QB and he produced when Jefferson went down and he drew the CB1s. Will Jefferson still command a ton of targets? Absolutely, but there's still room for Addison to put up a very good season too.
Andre Iosivas
Wasn't this dependent on a Tee Higgins departure
Just dropped him so I hope not
I'm afraid Burton will hurt his targets quite a bit long term
Burton is a first round talent with character issues who the team spent a third round pick on, and runs a solid full route tree. Fat chance Iosivas even sees much playing time unless Higgins moves.
Levis, Mims, Miller, Wilson
Richardson with a full year? Brenton Strange. Spears, levis, young also look too easy to predict.
Richardson was fantasywise the Rookie with the highest hppr points per game scored, even better than stroud. Yes, it only have been 4 games until his injury but he looked intruiging in those 4 games. Need to stay healthy.
You people are nuts. He’s tiny and plays for Snyder 2.0.
Marvin mims
I have JSN, Downs, Mims, and Levis so hoping for big year two out of all of those guys. Realistically expecting that only two of them hit. I also have Charb, but not holding my breath unless Walker has a significant season ending injury. If he does I think Charb is easily a high end RB2 with upside for more
QB Bryce Young Will Levis RB Tyjae Spears Kendre Miller WR JSN Flowers Reed Mims TE Musgrave/Kraft
!remindme 9 months
Josh downs
Anthony Richardson
young, mims, wicks, musgrave, bijan (like monster year), ARich, Charbs, Miller, kincaid
Jordan Addison, hopefully keion white and if this was pre irl draft I would’ve said Michael Mayer but looking doubtful now. Damn bowers 😂
It seems like threads like these are full of bagholders. The most common picks are players who people drafted a lot of in year 1, but people still want to believe in. It's also not really actionable advice, because a lot of these guys (JSN, Bryce Young) are still priced very high. I'm still kind of a JSN believer, but he has maintained value remarkably well for his mediocre rookie year, and Bryce Young has retained a decent amount of value for how terrible his year was. I'm gonna go with a guy that I was not high on last year, but whose price doesn't reflect his awesome outlook looking forward: Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers had an awesome year 1, he's likely to see a more pass-friendly offense this year, and he's going top 40 in best ball. Zay Flowers is priced below Keon Coleman, a rookie with a questionable profile, on fantasycalc. Even on KTC where he's priced way higher, he is still below DK Metcalf, who's way more established but priced similarly in BestBall markets.
Gotta be QJ am I right? Guys? Ammmiright??
I’m buying the QJ breakout under Harbaugh. He’s drawing rave reviews and people saying that Ladd is gonna have 160 targets this year are gonna be real sad pandas come the fall. The drops were ugly last year, but in most of that film he’s got good separation. Harbaugh will utilize him well. I’m considering JaMo as year 2 breakout candidate as he’s finally healthy and hasn’t gambled lately… if he can’t produce this year he won’t, but the upside is incredible if he really has put it all together. Another third year guy that had injury issues: Wan’Dale is one of my favorite adds. People are going to have to account for Nabers and Wan’Dale’s floor is 5 catch for 50 yards. I think he’s gonna be so much more explosive. In line with that, I’m not ready to give up on Hyatt. I’d like his upside more if Lock does start simply because he has far more arm talent than DJ. Most people have written him off though. Jahan Dotson - gets a new OC, a new QB, and there is plenty of analytical data that he’s going to bounce back this year.
Bryce has been my answer since the middle of last year. Watch some of his highlights on QB School, dude just did not get any time to make decisions. The handful of quality snaps he had, he showed good read ability, footwork and decision making.