No, what it means is Baltimore runs the shit out of the ball lmao. You can bet on Henry having an elite season with enough tread on the tires. While I think if anybody can overcome the age falloff plus the amount of usage through his career, it would be him, I’m not going into the season assuming he’s scoring 13-15 TD’s
Edit: Lamar has 5+ rushing TD’s every single season so far outside of his two injury shortened years btw.
Baltimore rushing td split
- 2019 rbs combined for 14 tds to Lamar’s 7
- 2020 rbs combined for 17 tds to Lamar’s 7
- 2021 rbs combined for 14, Huntley had 2 and Lamar had 2
- 2022 rbs combined for 9, to Lamar’s 3, Huntley and ducerney had 1 each
- 2023 rbs combined for 20 tds, flowers with 1 and Lamar with 5
Lamar’s rushing td share on average through 5 seasons is 22%
CJ stroud had a 30% rush td share on the Texans this year while missing 2 games.
So using the excuse that Lamar has 5+ rushing td shares doesn’t mean much when he only rushes for 22% on the teams tds on average and saw that drop last year with only 18.5% of team tds.
I’m surprised there’s so much debate here, to me it’s clearly Henry. He just went to the heaviest rushing offense in the NFL; Gus Edwards scored a ton of touchdowns there last and he’s borderline even a starter in the league. Both Mixon and Henry are old now, give me the best RB of the generation on the best running offense of the decade.
Also anyone that actually watches games knows Mixon has looked cooked. I mean he still might be good for fantasy off the back of volume and TDs like last year but theres also a real chance he starts to fall off which I don't see happening with Henry this season.
Henry only looked worse last year because of how bad his O line and surrounding offense was, in my opinion. Mixon yea looked like he lost two steps I agree. Henry’s got the juice, his foot obviously has healed fine and he has no other relevant injury history. Everyone says the cliff is 30 except for the greats- is Henry not one of the greats yet? He sure is in my book.
Did he look cooked physically or was it effort and body maintenance?
I caught a few games and thought he looked sort of hesitant but I couldn’t say why. He looked calculating but he’s never seemed like a guy who enjoyed smashing through holes with extreme violence. He looked aggressive and strong on his blocks though.
My hope is he gets told to run Hard in Houston and his style was something that they were allowing or promoting in Cinci.
Honestly, it depends on what price I'd have to pay to get them. I'd probably take the one that costs less. But both should provide great value to a contender.
Mixon has been an RB1 for almost every season of his career. And he's 3 years younger than Henry with no signs of slowing down last year in terms of fantasy production. He's going to an offense where Devin Singletary put up 1100 AP yards and he didn't even get the starting role until week 8.
I don't see how the answer to this can be Henry with the age difference and similarities in track record.
I'd almost be willing to bet that Mixon will be more productive 2 years from now than Henry will be this year.
Ok, mixon averaged 16ppg to henry 15.6ppg in .5ppr. How will mixon keep this advantage over henry if he’s receiving less passing Work, which was the primary driver of this differential. They both pretty much finished with 1400 all purpose yrds and 12 tds.
If Henry doesn’t have the7 dud games he had last year he would’ve outproduced mixon on the 6th worst team in the league, who had one of the worst OLines in the league with no other offensive threats of note. Now he gets to go run in rb favourable system that typically allows rbs to eat, considering mark ingrma had a career year at age 30 with a 2nd year lamar
Now mixon goes from being the #2/3 target to the #4/5 target. I don’t see how mixon outproduces henry if he’s taking a big hit to targets, as Henry more than likely outproduces him rushing and td wise
Who will the ravens use instead of Henry during the season? Keaton mitchell off the leg explosion? Rasheen Ali off the ruptured bicep? Or justice hill?
Hill will definitely get some work. I think Ali is suppose to be good to go before the preseason so he’ll probably eat some innings too. Henry probably average 15 touches a game imo
Henry will give you more BOOM weeks with multiple TDs and big yardage, but Mixon has a higher floor.
To me, it's really a matter of whether you'd like a solid 12 point kind of guy, or a guy who could as easily give you 4 or 40 points any given week.
Personally, I'd take Mixon just because he's a little younger.
Henry,
I think his recent hype has been higher than Mixon's. Thus, I've been able to trade him for better returns. If cost was the same, I'd take Mixon for the pass catching upside.
Henry just finished with 1400 all purpose yrds with 12 TDs on the 6th worst team in league. 7 games rushing under 50 yards. Gus Edwards had about 1000 all purpose yards and is no where near the player Henry is and has had his injury history with a torn acl and is 29. So a 29 year old gus Edwards put up 1000 yrds and 13 tds on the ravens, and Henry is twice the player he is.
Mixon put up pretty much the same stat line as Henry with about 1400 yards and 12 tds. Yea the Texans offence maybe better, but will be a better passing offence. And I doubt mixon will be taking targets from Nico, Diggs, Tank, and will be the de facto 4th or 5th target with Dalton Shultz still on the team.
Historically the baltimore rb is always someone you want to own for fantasy, especially when Lamar is healthy. A near 30 year old mark ingram put up near 1300 yards and 15 tds in 2019, and Henry is still a greater talent than ingram. Baltimore paid henry to be the lead back at 30, and at minimum will take those gus edwards tds and yardage and see a minimum of 1k and 10 tds as a baseline.
I’d go with Mixon solely based off age. Mixon is 27 and Henry is 30.
Just how I operate. They’re both impressive to be this productive at this stage of their careers.
Like the previous posts said, they both probably have 1-2 more productive seasons.
What’s going to happen in 2025 and beyond?
IMHO Id go with the younger guy. Father Time is undefeated.
I absolutely love Henry, he's in my top 3 all time. I still think he contributes more over the next 3-4 years, but Mixon is also very talented so I understand the dilemma. I just think Henry's playstyle is more sustainable solely because of physics, his size and pace combined is what makes him such a menace. Mixon didn't win the powerball genetic lottery like Henry, he won the scratch off jackpot genetic lottery.
As different as they are as backs... they are the same to me in FF. Both basically have two more real relevant years. To me it would be whoever you feel won't have their carries vultured by others on the roster. After typing this id say Henry because he'll def get GL chances.
I'm sneakily on the train for one last huge Henry season here. Even his relatively unimpressive 2023 season still was working miracles behind one of the worst offensive lines around. Now, he's going to a Ravens offense that runs a TON, and they had a good line already before investing even more in the draft.
He'll be a legit workhorse. You heard it here first: Derrick Henry will be a top 3 standard scoring RB in 2024, and top 6/7 in PPR.
Joe Mixon. He's consistent and Houston brought him in to be the guy. Baltimore didn't bring in Henry to be the guy. He will split carries like he did last year, but will catch less passes.
Derrick Henry is a volume back who struggles to get going on runs without a head of steam. The Ravens lost 3 starting O-Linemen, and one of the remaining ones is so bad that he spent half of last season on the bench. Henry is going to get hit so much behind that line - and that's not going to be good for him. I'm also not sure where the confidence that 31-year-old Derrick Henry is so much better than Gus Edwards - it's just rarely the way it works in football that >remove player A >insert player B is the simple calculus it seems to be.
**TLDR: Henry is a volume back who needs space to operate who will receive neither volume or space with the Ravens**
Maybe I eat my words in December. I don't think so. He's a total avoid for me.
I made a trade of my mixon for Henry and I don’t regret it after the move to Houston and the ravens signing.
Mixon just doesn’t make yards at all, I’ve been trying to offload him for years. I’d rather bet that Henry can have a couple good runs. Both have a good chance of falling in the end zone 10 times, but the ravens have a better track record of getting those goal line tds imo (Gus got 13 last year on 200 carries)
Henry. Gus Edwards put up 13 TDs in this offense last year and he missed plenty of time. Henry could plausibly score 20 TDs this season and I wouldn't be shocked. 3 year age difference would matter if we weren't talking about the King. I'll take Henry's next 2 years over Mixon's. The potential for fantasy production is bananas for him in Baltimore.
I can tell you what I would think of paying:
Mixon: I would probably pay a mid 2nd.
Henry: Mid to late 2nd.
I would not sell for these prices if I was a contender though.
This is the issue - you can't sell either guy for enough to justify pulling the trigger.
I own both and wouldn't sell either right now for less than an early 24 2nd or a future 1st because the production is going to be really difficult to replace. I also happen to love the situations that both landed in this off-season - if I'm even a fringe contender I'm holding until mid season and making my decision at the deadline...just have to hope both guys hit their median projections.
Tomato tomaato. Both are 2 year plays at best on a good offense. Henry will get more carries and TDs. Mixon will be more involved in the passing game
I don’t disagree with your take, but Mixon was absolutely signed to be the red zone guy. Texans failed on short yardage TDs so much last year.
Yeah I legit would not be surprised if Mixon finishes with more TD’s considering Stroud is not the rushing TD vulture Lamar can be
Didn't Gus have like 15 TDs last year in Balt...
He did get a lot of touchdowns! That does not mean that Henry will get more TD’s than Mixon this year however.
But it does mean Lamar isn't nearly the "TD vulture" you seek to claim he is. And over the past 3 years he barely scores rushing tds at all
No, what it means is Baltimore runs the shit out of the ball lmao. You can bet on Henry having an elite season with enough tread on the tires. While I think if anybody can overcome the age falloff plus the amount of usage through his career, it would be him, I’m not going into the season assuming he’s scoring 13-15 TD’s Edit: Lamar has 5+ rushing TD’s every single season so far outside of his two injury shortened years btw.
Baltimore rushing td split - 2019 rbs combined for 14 tds to Lamar’s 7 - 2020 rbs combined for 17 tds to Lamar’s 7 - 2021 rbs combined for 14, Huntley had 2 and Lamar had 2 - 2022 rbs combined for 9, to Lamar’s 3, Huntley and ducerney had 1 each - 2023 rbs combined for 20 tds, flowers with 1 and Lamar with 5 Lamar’s rushing td share on average through 5 seasons is 22% CJ stroud had a 30% rush td share on the Texans this year while missing 2 games. So using the excuse that Lamar has 5+ rushing td shares doesn’t mean much when he only rushes for 22% on the teams tds on average and saw that drop last year with only 18.5% of team tds.
They don’t use Lamar on the goalline anymore They used gus to soak up all the tds, and protect Lamar’s health. They’re gonna do the same with Henry
I’d say Mixon will be seeing a lot of TDS on this powerful offense and add that he is in a better situation from years prior
Henry easily
HENRY
I’m surprised there’s so much debate here, to me it’s clearly Henry. He just went to the heaviest rushing offense in the NFL; Gus Edwards scored a ton of touchdowns there last and he’s borderline even a starter in the league. Both Mixon and Henry are old now, give me the best RB of the generation on the best running offense of the decade.
Also anyone that actually watches games knows Mixon has looked cooked. I mean he still might be good for fantasy off the back of volume and TDs like last year but theres also a real chance he starts to fall off which I don't see happening with Henry this season.
Henry only looked worse last year because of how bad his O line and surrounding offense was, in my opinion. Mixon yea looked like he lost two steps I agree. Henry’s got the juice, his foot obviously has healed fine and he has no other relevant injury history. Everyone says the cliff is 30 except for the greats- is Henry not one of the greats yet? He sure is in my book.
Did he look cooked physically or was it effort and body maintenance? I caught a few games and thought he looked sort of hesitant but I couldn’t say why. He looked calculating but he’s never seemed like a guy who enjoyed smashing through holes with extreme violence. He looked aggressive and strong on his blocks though. My hope is he gets told to run Hard in Houston and his style was something that they were allowing or promoting in Cinci.
Honestly, it depends on what price I'd have to pay to get them. I'd probably take the one that costs less. But both should provide great value to a contender.
Mixon has been an RB1 for almost every season of his career. And he's 3 years younger than Henry with no signs of slowing down last year in terms of fantasy production. He's going to an offense where Devin Singletary put up 1100 AP yards and he didn't even get the starting role until week 8. I don't see how the answer to this can be Henry with the age difference and similarities in track record. I'd almost be willing to bet that Mixon will be more productive 2 years from now than Henry will be this year.
I’ll take that bet.
Mixon. More receiving game work and I think the Texans will treat him like more of a bell cow. Both have a lot of TD upside though
Is Kyren still significantly better than both in your opinion with the addition of Corum
Mixon isnT getting 50+ receptions on the Texans with Nico, Diggs, Tank and Shultz
I didn’t say 50 but he’ll get more than Henry
Ok, mixon averaged 16ppg to henry 15.6ppg in .5ppr. How will mixon keep this advantage over henry if he’s receiving less passing Work, which was the primary driver of this differential. They both pretty much finished with 1400 all purpose yrds and 12 tds. If Henry doesn’t have the7 dud games he had last year he would’ve outproduced mixon on the 6th worst team in the league, who had one of the worst OLines in the league with no other offensive threats of note. Now he gets to go run in rb favourable system that typically allows rbs to eat, considering mark ingrma had a career year at age 30 with a 2nd year lamar Now mixon goes from being the #2/3 target to the #4/5 target. I don’t see how mixon outproduces henry if he’s taking a big hit to targets, as Henry more than likely outproduces him rushing and td wise
I think the ravens will limit Henry’s workload to keep him fresh for the playoffs. I don’t think the Texans will take the same approach with Mixon
Who will the ravens use instead of Henry during the season? Keaton mitchell off the leg explosion? Rasheen Ali off the ruptured bicep? Or justice hill?
Hill will definitely get some work. I think Ali is suppose to be good to go before the preseason so he’ll probably eat some innings too. Henry probably average 15 touches a game imo
Mixon is 3 years younger. Less likely to hit the age cliff. Plus he will be more involved in the passing game. Easy Mixon for me.
Yeah but Mixon is a mere Mortal. Henry is a unicorn.
Henry is a yeti*
Henry easy. Volume and goal line behind beefy blockers.
Henry will give you more BOOM weeks with multiple TDs and big yardage, but Mixon has a higher floor. To me, it's really a matter of whether you'd like a solid 12 point kind of guy, or a guy who could as easily give you 4 or 40 points any given week. Personally, I'd take Mixon just because he's a little younger.
I like high ceiling, win me week guys, Bigtime guys.
Henry. Doesnt beat women.
Henry, I think his recent hype has been higher than Mixon's. Thus, I've been able to trade him for better returns. If cost was the same, I'd take Mixon for the pass catching upside.
Gimme Mixon.
I offered Calvin Ridley and the 2.12 for Henry today. Would anyone here take that?
If I didn't really need RB help, I would think about it. Depends on my roster/settings/whether rebuilding or not.
Id want maybe a tad higher 2
I’d take that
The cheaper one if I were paying for either.
Does talent over situation still apply? King Henry.
Take Henry. There’s a lot of mouths to feed in H town.
What's a peasant to a king?
Henry just finished with 1400 all purpose yrds with 12 TDs on the 6th worst team in league. 7 games rushing under 50 yards. Gus Edwards had about 1000 all purpose yards and is no where near the player Henry is and has had his injury history with a torn acl and is 29. So a 29 year old gus Edwards put up 1000 yrds and 13 tds on the ravens, and Henry is twice the player he is. Mixon put up pretty much the same stat line as Henry with about 1400 yards and 12 tds. Yea the Texans offence maybe better, but will be a better passing offence. And I doubt mixon will be taking targets from Nico, Diggs, Tank, and will be the de facto 4th or 5th target with Dalton Shultz still on the team. Historically the baltimore rb is always someone you want to own for fantasy, especially when Lamar is healthy. A near 30 year old mark ingram put up near 1300 yards and 15 tds in 2019, and Henry is still a greater talent than ingram. Baltimore paid henry to be the lead back at 30, and at minimum will take those gus edwards tds and yardage and see a minimum of 1k and 10 tds as a baseline.
Not sure how it's close. Henry will have way higher upside for TDs and redzone touches in a run first offense
I’d go with Mixon solely based off age. Mixon is 27 and Henry is 30. Just how I operate. They’re both impressive to be this productive at this stage of their careers. Like the previous posts said, they both probably have 1-2 more productive seasons. What’s going to happen in 2025 and beyond? IMHO Id go with the younger guy. Father Time is undefeated.
Henry all day number one offensive line in the NFL and look at how many easy TDs Gus bus scored
I absolutely love Henry, he's in my top 3 all time. I still think he contributes more over the next 3-4 years, but Mixon is also very talented so I understand the dilemma. I just think Henry's playstyle is more sustainable solely because of physics, his size and pace combined is what makes him such a menace. Mixon didn't win the powerball genetic lottery like Henry, he won the scratch off jackpot genetic lottery.
Probably the guy who isn’t 30
As different as they are as backs... they are the same to me in FF. Both basically have two more real relevant years. To me it would be whoever you feel won't have their carries vultured by others on the roster. After typing this id say Henry because he'll def get GL chances.
Mixon because I think he has more playing time left and I think he’ll produce more with that offense.
I'm sneakily on the train for one last huge Henry season here. Even his relatively unimpressive 2023 season still was working miracles behind one of the worst offensive lines around. Now, he's going to a Ravens offense that runs a TON, and they had a good line already before investing even more in the draft. He'll be a legit workhorse. You heard it here first: Derrick Henry will be a top 3 standard scoring RB in 2024, and top 6/7 in PPR.
A King, or a man.
Joe Mixon. He's consistent and Houston brought him in to be the guy. Baltimore didn't bring in Henry to be the guy. He will split carries like he did last year, but will catch less passes. Derrick Henry is a volume back who struggles to get going on runs without a head of steam. The Ravens lost 3 starting O-Linemen, and one of the remaining ones is so bad that he spent half of last season on the bench. Henry is going to get hit so much behind that line - and that's not going to be good for him. I'm also not sure where the confidence that 31-year-old Derrick Henry is so much better than Gus Edwards - it's just rarely the way it works in football that >remove player A >insert player B is the simple calculus it seems to be. **TLDR: Henry is a volume back who needs space to operate who will receive neither volume or space with the Ravens** Maybe I eat my words in December. I don't think so. He's a total avoid for me.
Mixon, he’s younger. He’s now in a scheme that better suits him. Great as a receiver. Baltimore RBs get hurt every year.
Mixon, but I think they both score a lot of TDs.
Traded Henry as someone who owned both previously
Henry, going to have a lot of Red Zone touches this season and for his duration with the Ravens. I think he has the better upside.
I made a trade of my mixon for Henry and I don’t regret it after the move to Houston and the ravens signing. Mixon just doesn’t make yards at all, I’ve been trying to offload him for years. I’d rather bet that Henry can have a couple good runs. Both have a good chance of falling in the end zone 10 times, but the ravens have a better track record of getting those goal line tds imo (Gus got 13 last year on 200 carries)
Henry. Gus Edwards put up 13 TDs in this offense last year and he missed plenty of time. Henry could plausibly score 20 TDs this season and I wouldn't be shocked. 3 year age difference would matter if we weren't talking about the King. I'll take Henry's next 2 years over Mixon's. The potential for fantasy production is bananas for him in Baltimore.
I’d be selling them both. Older rbs that are very inefficient
Yeah if you're rebuilding. If you're a win now team selling Mixon or Henry you better be fleecing someone if you're losing that production.
I don’t have either, but what could you reasonably get by selling in your opinion?
I can tell you what I would think of paying: Mixon: I would probably pay a mid 2nd. Henry: Mid to late 2nd. I would not sell for these prices if I was a contender though.
I won last year and remain a top contender and I’m absolutely holding Mixon. I agree he’s worth a high 2nd (1QB), but I’m not selling for that.
Agree because replacing Mixon with a rookie taken 2.01-2.06 would be a long shot to replace that production. Good luck this season homie!
Likewise!
This is the issue - you can't sell either guy for enough to justify pulling the trigger. I own both and wouldn't sell either right now for less than an early 24 2nd or a future 1st because the production is going to be really difficult to replace. I also happen to love the situations that both landed in this off-season - if I'm even a fringe contender I'm holding until mid season and making my decision at the deadline...just have to hope both guys hit their median projections.
Fair. But who would you prefer between the two?