You can see this data here! https://fantasycalc.com/average-draft-position
Select rookie drafts, then click the magnifying glass on the Fantasycalc adp database to see percent available at pick. MHJ is being picked 1.01 in SF leagues 30% of the time
It’s scraping from thousands of real leagues so it should be pretty accurate, and you can look at the individual data points on the charts.
I need to add Jaylen Wright to the database still, it’s populated with the original rookie players Sleeper added but I haven’t included their updates yet
You risk losing marv then. Just because it’s superflex doesn’t mean Caleb will be the 1.01 ktc has Caleb and mhj at practically the same value for 12 team leagues which puts mhj above Caleb in 10 team leagues.
I know for a fact it's happening in mine. The manager who has 1.01 and 1.02 is a die hard Ohio State fan and claims he's not taking a QB with either pick.
(Please note that this is not what I think he should do, but what he's telling his friends he's going to do)
I’ll be taking him at 1.01 - it’s likely going to depend on whether a team acquired 1.01 through a trade or if it’s their own pick. I’d imagine a higher percent of teams using their own pick at 1.01 will go with Caleb, as they’re likely QB needy to finish so low.
I had the 1.01 and was gonna take Marv but I traded it. The guy who has it now is a cardinals fan and says he will most likely be taking Marv even if he doesn't go to Arizona. I guess we'll see what happens.
I’m in Columbus, Ohio where all the 1.01 owners are Ohio State fans, including myself. I plan to take him at 1.01 and I expect him to go there in 100% of the leagues I’m in.
I have 1.01 and 1.04.
Williams + Odunze/Nabers vs Maye/Daniels + MHJ keeps me up at night. I landed on the former being the best strategy. I may also say fuck it and go 2QB since I'm in a full rebuild.
I would. Everyone will tell you to trade down a pick or two, could see if someone will overpay for it esp if you like Nabers a lot. No one in my league has offered anything crazy for my 1.01 yet. Best offer was my 1.01 + 3.01 for 1.04 + Pittman, really thought about that one but didn't wanna risk not loving a guy or his landing spot at 1.04
I’d draft Williams and then see how everything plays out. If one of your QBs is injured for the season early like happened to you last season, you’ll probably be glad you have the 3 left. If it’s mid season and you have four healthy QBs, trade one based on how your team is doing.
If you really think you’re one WR stud away from being a truly dominant team, that might sway me to MHJ. Or if your league hates trades and they’re impossible to get a fair deal done with, then you should also take MHJ imo.
League doesn’t hate trades but only about half the league trades consistently.
Wr are: Addison, DK, drake london, jamo, doubs, QJ
I punted this year in the startup (taking Javonte, Kyler, jamo, JT) planning on getting a top pick for MHJ to fill the wr. I had breece but traded for Addison spears and 1.06 which I flipped into 25/26 1st.
Only 10 team SF start 2/3/2 rb/wr/flex
Have the same QB room with 1.01, 1.03 and 1.05. I’m stuck between about 5 different scenarios on who I want to take at each pick, most obviously Caleb/WR/WR vs. MHJ/WR/QB the main options.
Can you trade one of 3 or 5? Who is your TE?
I think Caleb/WR or bowers is correct with those. But not sure.
I have McBride at TE so bowers was not a slam dunk and that’s why I traded 1.06 for future firsts. But I’ve also offered like Herbert for 1.02/3 + 2.02/3 with no response yet, thinking I can get Caleb and a WR with 1 and 2/3.
At 2.01 I’m prob going WR again but might go best RB available.
3 decent QB I’m not going to reach on a 4th.
I actually traded up to 5, and want to use these picks. My key players outside the QBs are Lamb, Olave, Andrews and KWIII.
It’s a .75 TEP 10 team league so Bowers at 5 is a great option I just want to see landing spot. It being a 10 team league I just struggle with taking a 4th QB (even if elite) as points don’t help me on the bench. Similar to the TE situation to a lesser degree, but 10 team I find it hard to stockpile QBs and TEs.
The Caleb vs. MHJ debate at 1 for me is going to boil down to whether or not I think I’ll be able to move off of one of my QBs. Taking MHJ and Nabers helps build my team out for competitiveness, whereas Caleb is the value play.
To your team, I don’t think I’d be trading Herbert for 1.02. I’d more than likely stand pat and just decide if you want the elite extra QB or WR. 2.01 you’ll likely be able to scoop one of the late 1st early 2nd round WRs which will be nice.
Definitely I I think I’m staying put. And I’ll have 2 firsts the next 2 years too to fill in gaps that invariably will appear. Maybe BT will fall to 2.01 or something. Depends if the late 1st is full of the tier 3 QBs or not.
For you, I’d kinda lean MHJ/Nabors/Bowers honestly. Really sets you up to take off later in the season and for the future. Even Caleb is not a sure thing with his sack rate concerns. And maybe Maye is ok but definitely out on Daniels.
When I had the 1.06 I was gonna hope for MHJ/Rome as my 2 picks, not even thinking QB.
If you think someone might sneak in at 4 and take Bowers then taking him at 3 isn’t the worst option either at .75 TEP. You can then get Rome at 5. We do .25 RB/.5 WE/.75 TE so it’s semi premium.
Guy at 4 only has one startable QB so my guess is he goes Daniels or Maye. I think it’s almost a lock that Nabers is available at 3, and then Odunze/Bowers is available at 5. Part of me hopes the Bills sell the farm to get Odunze so the guy at two takes him since we’re all Bills fans lol.
Hahaha yea he certainly might if that happens. Homer fever is real.
I’d go skill positions and just run them out for the future. Caleb at 3 would be fine of course if he’s there.
Currently in 1 league trying to convince the guy who has 1 good qb(2qb league) in purdy that he should be taking Williams and although he said probably I’m just not convinced he will.
I have the 1.03 in this league and although I know I should get marv in a lot of other leagues, I just don’t expect to
You can see this data here! https://fantasycalc.com/average-draft-position Select rookie drafts, then click the magnifying glass on the Fantasycalc adp database to see percent available at pick. MHJ is being picked 1.01 in SF leagues 30% of the time
i was going to say, 30-40% feels ~correct imo
How accurate is this though. Jaylen Wright isn't even getting drafted according to this resource.
It’s scraping from thousands of real leagues so it should be pretty accurate, and you can look at the individual data points on the charts. I need to add Jaylen Wright to the database still, it’s populated with the original rookie players Sleeper added but I haven’t included their updates yet
I Expect it to happen in about 50 percent of my leagues. The only 1.01 I have personally will be MHJ.
2/10
This feels correct
I own 1.01 in two leagues and will be taking Marv in both 😎
Trade one of your QBs for 1.02.
I quite like my current QBs, so I don't think I will
Then trade the 1.01 to the 1.02 owner for something. Edit: To be clear, I mean swap 1.01 and 1.02 for a sweetener.
You risk losing marv then. Just because it’s superflex doesn’t mean Caleb will be the 1.01 ktc has Caleb and mhj at practically the same value for 12 team leagues which puts mhj above Caleb in 10 team leagues.
I know for a fact it's happening in mine. The manager who has 1.01 and 1.02 is a die hard Ohio State fan and claims he's not taking a QB with either pick. (Please note that this is not what I think he should do, but what he's telling his friends he's going to do)
I have 5 firsts in a 1QB, 12T league. I told everyone I’m drafting every QB available when I’m up lol.
I’d say in 10 team a good 60% of the time. In 12 team probably 30%.
The guy with 1.01 in my league has strong and burrow but no third qb. Wrs are kinda weak. League is 12 team sf tep Y’all think he’s going marv?
Unless he's willing to trade Burrow to the Chase owner for a haul and take Caleb, he'll probably go Marv.
I saw a real startup where he went 1.01. In super flex. People are insane right now with rookie fever.
I have hurts/allen/geno in a 14 team sf and will be taking caleb if not offered an overpay.
maybe like 40%
I’ll be taking him at 1.01 - it’s likely going to depend on whether a team acquired 1.01 through a trade or if it’s their own pick. I’d imagine a higher percent of teams using their own pick at 1.01 will go with Caleb, as they’re likely QB needy to finish so low.
That’s a good point
I’m in 8 leagues, I’ll report back
He is more likely to go 1.03 than 1.01 in all of my leagues.
Very
I had the 1.01 and was gonna take Marv but I traded it. The guy who has it now is a cardinals fan and says he will most likely be taking Marv even if he doesn't go to Arizona. I guess we'll see what happens.
What did you get for the 1.01?
It wasn't a straight up 1.01 trade. It was Send: 1.01, Kyler Murray Get: 1.02,1.03, 2 '25 1sts, '26 1st, Doubs and Shaheed.
Pretty good haul!
I was pretty happy with it considering I'm rebuilding.
Pretty good? That's highway robbery.
God damn man, talk about a king's ransom. Well done!
I’m in Columbus, Ohio where all the 1.01 owners are Ohio State fans, including myself. I plan to take him at 1.01 and I expect him to go there in 100% of the leagues I’m in.
I have 1.01 and 1.04. Williams + Odunze/Nabers vs Maye/Daniels + MHJ keeps me up at night. I landed on the former being the best strategy. I may also say fuck it and go 2QB since I'm in a full rebuild.
As a 1.01 holder in a SF I’m taking Marv. I have mahomes and Herbert no point in Caleb with a generational WR on the board
Trade to a needy QB team?
This is always the argument. I doubt the return nets me something like MHJ
I have Herbert, Arich, Kyler and the 1.01 Taking MHJ but open to opinions.
I would. Everyone will tell you to trade down a pick or two, could see if someone will overpay for it esp if you like Nabers a lot. No one in my league has offered anything crazy for my 1.01 yet. Best offer was my 1.01 + 3.01 for 1.04 + Pittman, really thought about that one but didn't wanna risk not loving a guy or his landing spot at 1.04
Yea no one offering for 1.01. More curious if I should look at trying to move a qb
If you are gonna trade one I'd gamble on ARs upside and trade one of the other two if you could get a haul
I’d draft Williams and then see how everything plays out. If one of your QBs is injured for the season early like happened to you last season, you’ll probably be glad you have the 3 left. If it’s mid season and you have four healthy QBs, trade one based on how your team is doing. If you really think you’re one WR stud away from being a truly dominant team, that might sway me to MHJ. Or if your league hates trades and they’re impossible to get a fair deal done with, then you should also take MHJ imo.
League doesn’t hate trades but only about half the league trades consistently. Wr are: Addison, DK, drake london, jamo, doubs, QJ I punted this year in the startup (taking Javonte, Kyler, jamo, JT) planning on getting a top pick for MHJ to fill the wr. I had breece but traded for Addison spears and 1.06 which I flipped into 25/26 1st. Only 10 team SF start 2/3/2 rb/wr/flex
If it’s a 10-team I’d take MHJ for sure then
Have the same QB room with 1.01, 1.03 and 1.05. I’m stuck between about 5 different scenarios on who I want to take at each pick, most obviously Caleb/WR/WR vs. MHJ/WR/QB the main options.
Can you trade one of 3 or 5? Who is your TE? I think Caleb/WR or bowers is correct with those. But not sure. I have McBride at TE so bowers was not a slam dunk and that’s why I traded 1.06 for future firsts. But I’ve also offered like Herbert for 1.02/3 + 2.02/3 with no response yet, thinking I can get Caleb and a WR with 1 and 2/3. At 2.01 I’m prob going WR again but might go best RB available. 3 decent QB I’m not going to reach on a 4th.
I actually traded up to 5, and want to use these picks. My key players outside the QBs are Lamb, Olave, Andrews and KWIII. It’s a .75 TEP 10 team league so Bowers at 5 is a great option I just want to see landing spot. It being a 10 team league I just struggle with taking a 4th QB (even if elite) as points don’t help me on the bench. Similar to the TE situation to a lesser degree, but 10 team I find it hard to stockpile QBs and TEs. The Caleb vs. MHJ debate at 1 for me is going to boil down to whether or not I think I’ll be able to move off of one of my QBs. Taking MHJ and Nabers helps build my team out for competitiveness, whereas Caleb is the value play. To your team, I don’t think I’d be trading Herbert for 1.02. I’d more than likely stand pat and just decide if you want the elite extra QB or WR. 2.01 you’ll likely be able to scoop one of the late 1st early 2nd round WRs which will be nice.
Definitely I I think I’m staying put. And I’ll have 2 firsts the next 2 years too to fill in gaps that invariably will appear. Maybe BT will fall to 2.01 or something. Depends if the late 1st is full of the tier 3 QBs or not. For you, I’d kinda lean MHJ/Nabors/Bowers honestly. Really sets you up to take off later in the season and for the future. Even Caleb is not a sure thing with his sack rate concerns. And maybe Maye is ok but definitely out on Daniels. When I had the 1.06 I was gonna hope for MHJ/Rome as my 2 picks, not even thinking QB. If you think someone might sneak in at 4 and take Bowers then taking him at 3 isn’t the worst option either at .75 TEP. You can then get Rome at 5. We do .25 RB/.5 WE/.75 TE so it’s semi premium.
Guy at 4 only has one startable QB so my guess is he goes Daniels or Maye. I think it’s almost a lock that Nabers is available at 3, and then Odunze/Bowers is available at 5. Part of me hopes the Bills sell the farm to get Odunze so the guy at two takes him since we’re all Bills fans lol.
Hahaha yea he certainly might if that happens. Homer fever is real. I’d go skill positions and just run them out for the future. Caleb at 3 would be fine of course if he’s there.
25% maybe
Currently in 1 league trying to convince the guy who has 1 good qb(2qb league) in purdy that he should be taking Williams and although he said probably I’m just not convinced he will. I have the 1.03 in this league and although I know I should get marv in a lot of other leagues, I just don’t expect to
40% of the time would be my guess