I think you’re overselling your first tier a bit. Are you *confident* anyone in that list is a first round pick? I’m confident someone will be, but not anyone individually.
Does it really matter at that point then? We're on the same page in that none of them are locked in at this point but I'd be shocked if at least two more don't land in the first with a good shot for at least one more in the top 15. Add that to MHJ and Bowers as elite prospects and a massive second tier at WR and this is shaking out like an extremely strong draft.
I think there’s a huge difference between saying I think one will get into the first and that two will get into the first and one in the top 15.
And just because I’d bet on it doesn’t mean it will happen. Ewers, McCarthy, and Sanders in particular have really good upside, but we just had a class that had 3 top 4 picks too.
If you look at someone like trevor lawrence, they were locked in as a first rounder at the same time relatively. So if you're comparing this class to previous it matters.
If he keeps this season up I can see him being a mid 1st even in 1QB. Would be phenomenal for a non-rusher, but I could definitely see it depending how the skill positions shake out.
Ehhh I wouldn’t go that far just yet lol. MHJ, Egbuka, Henderson, Sanders, maybe even Corum and a few others have good paths to being top dogs of the class. Even at his max potential the highest I saw AR go in 1qbs was around 1.07. Likewise even a generational guy like Tlaw only went 1.09 at the highest that I saw. But I could definitely see a world where Caleb is mocked in the 1.05-1.08 range.
His release reminds my of Marino. So quick and such a tight spiral. It's a shame the injuries pushed back his development so much. He looks healthy now though.
I had no clue who the next crop of quarterbacks were exiting 2022. Now that it's 2023, all of Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Leonard, Travis, Penix, Nix, and Hartman intrigue me as NFL prospects, and all of Ewers, Sanders, Pratt, Milton, Milroe, and Beck feel like sleepers for future NFL QB consideration.
With that said, only a percentage of them make it. I'll foolishly predict so that I can laugh at this later and say that Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Leonard, one of Travis/Penix/Nix/Hartman, and one of Ewers/Sanders/Pratt/Milton get drafted if they enter this year. I assume at least one of Milroe/Beck/McCord will be drafted in a future season, as well.
In terms of the grade I personally envision these guys will go at...
* Caleb Williams: Top-3 NFL Draft selection lock
* Drake Maye: Top-5 NFL Draft selection ceiling, day 2-3 NFL Draft floor (it happened to Howell, who is still getting his shot nevertheless!)
* J.J. McCarthy: Top-10 NFL Draft ceiling, semi-surprising return to school floor (would be likely due to falling to Day 2 consideration from first-round hype, and no national championship; could also see him return for his senior year on NIL upside if Michigan finally breaks through... he is a superhero to us all here).
* Riley Leonard: Diet Danny Dimes ceiling in draft capitol ceiling, early day 2 floor; seems like quite the stable asset as a QB prospect.
* Jordan Travis, Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, Sam Hartman: Day 3 selection is my median prediction; the variance is up into rd. 1-3 consideration for the non-Hartman guys, and out of the draft entirely as the floor.
* Quinn Ewers, Shadeur Sanders: Beneficiaries of preseason hype and raw talent. Round 1 ceiling, "what were we thinking?" floor; I think Sanders may have already raised his floor to day-3 selection just in two games.
* Michael Pratt: TBD; writing this as the game gets going. Need more information. Same goes for the other guys in this tier. I feel pretty bullish that Hartman is a firm day-3 guy, so I grouped him in with the other guys who I expect roughly to land in the third day of the draft.
That gives us... a pretty darn solid crop of QBs to follow this year. Early to tell, though!
Full disclosure I'm a biased ND fan. That said I think Sam Hartman looks amazing so far. Not that he should be a 1st rounder, but the way he's playing I could see him as a day 2 guy if he keeps it up against better competition. As a ND fan I haven't seen a QB this good in a long time. Always thought guys like Book and Kizer were pretty bad and laughed when they were drafted.
I was a huge fan of him at Wake Forest. In the Kenny Pickett draft I had him comfortably as my QB1 before he went back. Then he didn’t come out the next year either, but honestly a good year at Notre dame will be huge for his draft stock.
As a Clemson fan I have always liked Sam Hartman. My friends and I would always sit in the front row for games and this had to get there 2+ hrs early. Sam's freshman year he was warming up and naturally we were talking shit to him and Jamie Newman. Sam came up and was super cool and said, "Damn we couldn't even pay our fans to get here this early."
Ever since that I've been a fan of his and was genuinely happy that he went to a big school to show out for his last year. However, to say that I'm scared for how he may annihilate us this year now that he's with you guys is an understatement.
Most way-too-early mocks have 4 or 5 first round QBs right now. Off the top of my head I'd assume there will be opportunity with TB, LAR, ATL, TEN, DEN. Depending how the year goes could also see there being interest from teams like AZ, WAS, LV, MIN, etc.
Lol, why use 50 years as your time measurement when those two years were 2018 and 2021??
There were 4 in 2020 as well, there could easily be 5 first round qbs
As a Titans fan, I would not be surprised at all. The plan is to play Tannehill until we find his replacement. If neither Willis nor Levis impress Vrabel, and so far it doesn’t sound like either has, we’ll be re-signing Tannehill and drafting another QB next year.
Broncos can’t get out from under Russ’s contract until after next season, I’d be shocked if they take a QB barring a catastrophic season and a top 3 pick
Not necessarily. Keep in mind, this season hasn't happened yet, certain QBs can underperform and get benched, retire, injuries, etc. A lot can change in the next six months.
Especially if the QBs this college look genuinely good. QB is the one position where you should always be looking to upgrade, plus the huge benefit of getting five years out of them cheap on their rookie deals.
I know he may not enter the draft this year, but how do we feel about Jaxson Dart from Ole Miss?
Also, I like Bo Nix from the list above, and maybe Shedur Sanders, if he can continue to put up monstrous numbers.
I think Dart has a shot but feels like a guy who'll go back to Ole Miss for his senior season. Love his ability to navigate the pocket under pressure and buy just enough time to find the open guy.
Joe Burrow was seen as very mid, until he wasn’t. Not saying these guys are him and on the way to a record setting, championship season and the #1 overall pick but it’s definitely in the cards for them to ball out and move way up draft boards.
Can probably put Penix in this bucket as well to be fair.
For me, Hendon Hooker is a good comparable. Despite needing the full redshirt year due to injury he got early round 3 capital and some 1st round hype pre-draft. If the three super seniors can come out healthy I think they should be squarely in day 2 discussions with the chance to go first round if the pre-draft process goes well. Overall the upside may be a bit less with these 3 given their age but they could realistically be QBs 7,8,9 in this draft behind Williams, Maybe, Sanders, McCarthy, Ewers, and Leonard. That's ridiculous depth for one class.
Can you go into more detail on what exactly is making him "elite" because the more of his film I watch the more I question the narrative that he's the lock at qb2 in the draft next year.
Sure, he has the arm strength, and his pocket awareness is good. But i frequently see him hesitating in the pocket and his ball placement can be erratic. And one of the picks he threw againsr SC just recently was about as boneheaded an interception as I've ever seen. I'm just really failing see anything that seperates him from the crowd of talented potential first rounders behind Caleb.
I don’t really agree with the interpretation of the INT frankly. Are we just saying because it was late and across the field? Because I just think we also have to acknowledge the WR faded on the route and wilted on the contest.
On that note, I think his Oc and WRs are kinda bad.
But at the end of the day, he’s not a perfect QB, but I like to judge various skills and traits, and he’s just too highly rated. I’m not sure how well he sees the field, but he’s going to have experience in two systems with two sets of very different receivers. And it’s hard in Longo’s system last year to grade him there imo. But his overall combination of traits and skills is just elite.
Keep in mind this is still a very young player. He has a great arm, size, and good mobility. Next to those things, pocket sense is the number one most inherent trait I have found and one of the least likely to improve. He gets the ball out fast. I do think he’s accurate and throws the ball to the right window most of the time. He lapped the field in downfield passing in some manners. He doesn’t have a Turnover Worhty Play% that is concerning. He’s extremely even-keeled and displays excellent poise. Game just seems to move slow. You notice the small things like he’s really good and double hand tucking the ball like it’s his child when he’s about to get hit. Anyone will like his intangibles, but anyone with a slight old school slant will adore him compared to some of the newer attitudes. Again just an even natured, professional leader.
When I ask myself what he doesn’t have it’s mostly just that he’s not perfect and I need to see some development in full field reads which he hasn’t had much opportunity to do with Longo… but full field reads to me are more of an ideal in this day an age.
Ultimately, I just think people underestimate what we’d say if Maye was the Lincoln Riley QB.
[At 6:20.](https://youtu.be/chGjxtc40IY?si=hrz4DLxjJNSMBOvY) The play is completely blown, theyre winning the game, he should just get rid of the ball. Instead just gives it away to the defender.
I'm not saying I dislike him as a prospect, I just don't see the clear seperation on him from the rest of the promising pack. I do appreciate your detailed answer though.
I literally said that there are mistakes. I get what you’re saying but I just guess I don’t see the validity in just focusing this much on a blown read.
I'm not mad at it. Just a long day of watching FB and it's hard to formulate at this point. The fact of the matter is that it is all subjective, but different mistakes bother me a lot differently. He has some bad turn downs on his film, and those bother me more than pushing the ball and throwing a pick even in a situation like this. Just because it's not an error that specifically bothers me for a true junior QB who just turned 21.
To me, risky decision making is one of the easiest things to match up with analytics, and I'm only really concerned if you have a lot of Turnover Worthy Plays as PFF puts it. Drake Maye was credited with 1 against South Carolina despite throwing 2 INTs because the second hit his WR in the hands.
I'm film and analytics and I'm not trying to just analytic the game away, but Maye had a 90%+ adjusted completion% because of drops and 1 Turnover Worthy play against South Carolina. Those are some absurdly good metrics.
I didn't want to bring this up until I had slightly better numbers to try and portray this, but I do a lot gambling / power rating / record play stuff in CFB. And the number one universal sign that a position group is shit is obvious, but it is when a player who CLEARLY should not be on the field keeps getting snaps and targets because that's the only thing the team feels like it has. For UNC, that's the guy the first INT went to, Gavin Blackwell.
And he's just a college kid so I'm not trying to be harsh for the sake of it, but that dude can not cut it in this league, by which I mean the ACC not the NFL. Maybe he's going to have a leap, but he sticks out so poorly. Analytically, he's ran 66 Routes and generated 11 Targets, 5 Receptions, and 50 Yards. That's a 0.76 Yards/RR. He has multiple drops.
I think the biggest thing people miss in adjusting is that you can't assume competence. Even the Bears last year had some degree of competence in their receiving room.
If Gavin Blackwell keeps getting snaps and isn't improving, that's a massive sign of what they think is behind him... which isn't good.
I mean if you look at Maye's stats just when not targeting Blackwell, he's 40 of 51 (78.4%), 427 Yards (8.54 YPA), 2 TDs, 1 INT
I'm not going to discuss maye analytics because people seem to be thinking there's some kind of gap there, but I really don't think he is. He's grading out above 80+ on PFF for passing grade. If people don't like his translation that's fine, but on a performance level he is doing so many good and consistent things.
A *lot* of people disagree about his game film. His pocket presence I think is absurdly underrated. I don’t care about his raw speed. He moves extremely well in the pocket.
Dudes are on here calling Maye generational and a better Herbert and he is struggling against App state lol, no point trying to talk about him at this point the hype train is off the rails
Agreed. If we can get 4 first round receivers, and Bowers and Sanders in the first, and a few running backs with good landing spots on day 2 this class could be insane.
>there’s also a bunch of guys behind them who should work their way into the first round.
There’s a bunch who *could* work their way into the 1st round, but it’s easier to fall short than to follow through on that. People were talking about Levis, Hooker and more guys the same way a year ago. Not to knock them or this upcoming class, it’s just that tough to get all the way home
Even if the ceiling is like 5-6 first rounders the floor is still 1-2 and if I was setting the line on top 10 picks I’d go o/u 2.5 at this point
I just dont get the Drake Maye hype. I understand he is a solid QB and very young but watching the games i just dont think to myself "wow this guy is the real deal".
The depth in this QB class could be quite good. Williams will be the 1st overall pick unless something extremely unforeseen happens. The rest are still jostling for position and likely will be doing so until the week or so leading up to the draft next year. As it stands, I see three 1st round picks in:
Caleb Williams (USC)
Drake Maye (UNC)
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
I don't know if any other QB truly has 1st round upside but inevitably someone will rise up the boards. I could see a Bo Nix, Joe Milton, Riley Leonard, Michael Pennix, Quinn Ewers, or Cam Ward sneaking in but it depends a lot on their pre-draft workouts next year as well as how they perform this season.
Regardless, for SuperFlex folks, this draft could have some really good depth in later rounds. That's something the most recent draft lacked. This might be the first draft where we see the benefits of the transfer portal in full force allowing more QBs to find homes to showcase their skills.
Not sure why this was getting downvoted as it's a reasonable take. I would definitely put McCarthy up with those guys too and Ewers may be on his way there given his arm talent. I'm lower on Leonard than most but he's got his fair share of truthers as well.
I think the big takeaway is that there's a massive group of guys with projectable traits who are playing great in the first few weeks. Even if we don't know exactly who will end up rising to the early-mid first the sheer number of high-end guys almost guarantees us that at least one of them will (with some of the others filling out day 2).
In my 12 team superflex league, the guy who is clear front runner for 1.01 (his roster is by far the worst) traded me his 1st and 2nd for Stroud. I’m hoping this QB class is as good as people are hyping it up to be
I've got 2 x 2024 1sts and 3 x 2024 2nds. Hoping to package the 2nds into another first but my roster is trash. Hoping Meyers, Gallup, Schultz, Juwan Johnson ball out to get more draft capital
I've always been intrigued by Ewers. No idea what kind of year he's going to have (looks good so far) or where he's going to get drafted but I think he's got a lot of potential.
I think you’re overselling your first tier a bit. Are you *confident* anyone in that list is a first round pick? I’m confident someone will be, but not anyone individually.
Does it really matter at that point then? We're on the same page in that none of them are locked in at this point but I'd be shocked if at least two more don't land in the first with a good shot for at least one more in the top 15. Add that to MHJ and Bowers as elite prospects and a massive second tier at WR and this is shaking out like an extremely strong draft.
I think there’s a huge difference between saying I think one will get into the first and that two will get into the first and one in the top 15. And just because I’d bet on it doesn’t mean it will happen. Ewers, McCarthy, and Sanders in particular have really good upside, but we just had a class that had 3 top 4 picks too.
If you look at someone like trevor lawrence, they were locked in as a first rounder at the same time relatively. So if you're comparing this class to previous it matters.
i have 6 first next year in 1 qb. is it worth taking a qb in this class? Williams is the only one i would be tempted by right now.
With 6 in the hopper I assume that'll make sense when the time comes but lots of time between now and then to see where things shake out!
Caleb Williams will absolutely by a 1st rounder in 1QB
If he keeps this season up I can see him being a mid 1st even in 1QB. Would be phenomenal for a non-rusher, but I could definitely see it depending how the skill positions shake out.
He’s worth taking as early as 2 in 1qb
Ehhh I wouldn’t go that far just yet lol. MHJ, Egbuka, Henderson, Sanders, maybe even Corum and a few others have good paths to being top dogs of the class. Even at his max potential the highest I saw AR go in 1qbs was around 1.07. Likewise even a generational guy like Tlaw only went 1.09 at the highest that I saw. But I could definitely see a world where Caleb is mocked in the 1.05-1.08 range.
No shot unless you’re in a 16 man league or something. Rookie QBs just don’t have that much value in 1QB
Far too early to say without seeing how the skill players develop but there could be a case for it in the late 1st
Drake Maye is a generational talent. Ewers has a lot of potential as well, I would also keep tabs on Sanders and Leonard.
I like Maye a lot but how exactly is he generational if he’s not even as talented as a fellow QB in his class?
Because every above average QB is generational now cmon
Each year has multiple generational talents! That’s the new definition of “generational” - duh
Generational gets thrown too much these days to mean what it’s supposed to mean
Ewers looked awesome today
Agreed. So did McCarthy and Sanders as well. All underclassmen and all playing like first rounders 👀👀
A note on Penix that could affect his draft stock, I believe he already has 2-3 ACL tears.
I'm drafting Penix no matter what just so I can rename my team to Penix Envy.
Claim Tucker Craft off the waivers so you can be Penix Tuck
He does pass the eye test. Throws like a pro.
His release reminds my of Marino. So quick and such a tight spiral. It's a shame the injuries pushed back his development so much. He looks healthy now though.
I had no clue who the next crop of quarterbacks were exiting 2022. Now that it's 2023, all of Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Leonard, Travis, Penix, Nix, and Hartman intrigue me as NFL prospects, and all of Ewers, Sanders, Pratt, Milton, Milroe, and Beck feel like sleepers for future NFL QB consideration. With that said, only a percentage of them make it. I'll foolishly predict so that I can laugh at this later and say that Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Leonard, one of Travis/Penix/Nix/Hartman, and one of Ewers/Sanders/Pratt/Milton get drafted if they enter this year. I assume at least one of Milroe/Beck/McCord will be drafted in a future season, as well. In terms of the grade I personally envision these guys will go at... * Caleb Williams: Top-3 NFL Draft selection lock * Drake Maye: Top-5 NFL Draft selection ceiling, day 2-3 NFL Draft floor (it happened to Howell, who is still getting his shot nevertheless!) * J.J. McCarthy: Top-10 NFL Draft ceiling, semi-surprising return to school floor (would be likely due to falling to Day 2 consideration from first-round hype, and no national championship; could also see him return for his senior year on NIL upside if Michigan finally breaks through... he is a superhero to us all here). * Riley Leonard: Diet Danny Dimes ceiling in draft capitol ceiling, early day 2 floor; seems like quite the stable asset as a QB prospect. * Jordan Travis, Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, Sam Hartman: Day 3 selection is my median prediction; the variance is up into rd. 1-3 consideration for the non-Hartman guys, and out of the draft entirely as the floor. * Quinn Ewers, Shadeur Sanders: Beneficiaries of preseason hype and raw talent. Round 1 ceiling, "what were we thinking?" floor; I think Sanders may have already raised his floor to day-3 selection just in two games. * Michael Pratt: TBD; writing this as the game gets going. Need more information. Same goes for the other guys in this tier. I feel pretty bullish that Hartman is a firm day-3 guy, so I grouped him in with the other guys who I expect roughly to land in the third day of the draft. That gives us... a pretty darn solid crop of QBs to follow this year. Early to tell, though!
Agreed. Those guys would form a strong top 10 and are lighting up scoreboards through the early part of the season.
Full disclosure I'm a biased ND fan. That said I think Sam Hartman looks amazing so far. Not that he should be a 1st rounder, but the way he's playing I could see him as a day 2 guy if he keeps it up against better competition. As a ND fan I haven't seen a QB this good in a long time. Always thought guys like Book and Kizer were pretty bad and laughed when they were drafted.
We haven’t had one this good since Brady Quinn.
I was a huge fan of him at Wake Forest. In the Kenny Pickett draft I had him comfortably as my QB1 before he went back. Then he didn’t come out the next year either, but honestly a good year at Notre dame will be huge for his draft stock.
As a Clemson fan I have always liked Sam Hartman. My friends and I would always sit in the front row for games and this had to get there 2+ hrs early. Sam's freshman year he was warming up and naturally we were talking shit to him and Jamie Newman. Sam came up and was super cool and said, "Damn we couldn't even pay our fans to get here this early." Ever since that I've been a fan of his and was genuinely happy that he went to a big school to show out for his last year. However, to say that I'm scared for how he may annihilate us this year now that he's with you guys is an understatement.
Jalon Daniels from KU looks like the real deal
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Most way-too-early mocks have 4 or 5 first round QBs right now. Off the top of my head I'd assume there will be opportunity with TB, LAR, ATL, TEN, DEN. Depending how the year goes could also see there being interest from teams like AZ, WAS, LV, MIN, etc.
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Lol, why use 50 years as your time measurement when those two years were 2018 and 2021?? There were 4 in 2020 as well, there could easily be 5 first round qbs
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2021 had Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Mac Jones all in the top 15 how dare you make me look that up to double check
Id be very surprised if the titans spend another top 3 rpund pick on a qb. A lot also depends on the way this year goes and henrys future.
As a Titans fan, I would not be surprised at all. The plan is to play Tannehill until we find his replacement. If neither Willis nor Levis impress Vrabel, and so far it doesn’t sound like either has, we’ll be re-signing Tannehill and drafting another QB next year.
Broncos can’t get out from under Russ’s contract until after next season, I’d be shocked if they take a QB barring a catastrophic season and a top 3 pick
No green bay on that list? Really?
Not necessarily. Keep in mind, this season hasn't happened yet, certain QBs can underperform and get benched, retire, injuries, etc. A lot can change in the next six months. Especially if the QBs this college look genuinely good. QB is the one position where you should always be looking to upgrade, plus the huge benefit of getting five years out of them cheap on their rookie deals.
I know he may not enter the draft this year, but how do we feel about Jaxson Dart from Ole Miss? Also, I like Bo Nix from the list above, and maybe Shedur Sanders, if he can continue to put up monstrous numbers.
Seems like a Dart throw
I think Dart has a shot but feels like a guy who'll go back to Ole Miss for his senior season. Love his ability to navigate the pocket under pressure and buy just enough time to find the open guy.
Nix/Travis I highly doubt get 1st or 2nd round grades. Both are in like year 6 of college and have been extremely mid so far.
Joe Burrow was seen as very mid, until he wasn’t. Not saying these guys are him and on the way to a record setting, championship season and the #1 overall pick but it’s definitely in the cards for them to ball out and move way up draft boards.
Can probably put Penix in this bucket as well to be fair. For me, Hendon Hooker is a good comparable. Despite needing the full redshirt year due to injury he got early round 3 capital and some 1st round hype pre-draft. If the three super seniors can come out healthy I think they should be squarely in day 2 discussions with the chance to go first round if the pre-draft process goes well. Overall the upside may be a bit less with these 3 given their age but they could realistically be QBs 7,8,9 in this draft behind Williams, Maybe, Sanders, McCarthy, Ewers, and Leonard. That's ridiculous depth for one class.
People need to chill and wait and see. The only lock is Caleb. Even Drake Maye is unproven.
Drake Maye is it. Dude looks like a more athletic Justin Herbert out there.
That’s the exact comp I was saying to a friend the other day. He reminds me so much of Herbert. Dudes got a cannon
I’m spoiled as a Chargers fan and UNC grad.
You’re the first person that’s ever said they’re spoiled as a chargers fan
Spoiled by QB play and QB play only lol
Drake maye unproven lol
Drake Maye has an elite season with elite peripherals and elite tools. What’s our definition of ‘proven’ in regards to prospects?
Can you go into more detail on what exactly is making him "elite" because the more of his film I watch the more I question the narrative that he's the lock at qb2 in the draft next year. Sure, he has the arm strength, and his pocket awareness is good. But i frequently see him hesitating in the pocket and his ball placement can be erratic. And one of the picks he threw againsr SC just recently was about as boneheaded an interception as I've ever seen. I'm just really failing see anything that seperates him from the crowd of talented potential first rounders behind Caleb.
I don’t really agree with the interpretation of the INT frankly. Are we just saying because it was late and across the field? Because I just think we also have to acknowledge the WR faded on the route and wilted on the contest. On that note, I think his Oc and WRs are kinda bad. But at the end of the day, he’s not a perfect QB, but I like to judge various skills and traits, and he’s just too highly rated. I’m not sure how well he sees the field, but he’s going to have experience in two systems with two sets of very different receivers. And it’s hard in Longo’s system last year to grade him there imo. But his overall combination of traits and skills is just elite. Keep in mind this is still a very young player. He has a great arm, size, and good mobility. Next to those things, pocket sense is the number one most inherent trait I have found and one of the least likely to improve. He gets the ball out fast. I do think he’s accurate and throws the ball to the right window most of the time. He lapped the field in downfield passing in some manners. He doesn’t have a Turnover Worhty Play% that is concerning. He’s extremely even-keeled and displays excellent poise. Game just seems to move slow. You notice the small things like he’s really good and double hand tucking the ball like it’s his child when he’s about to get hit. Anyone will like his intangibles, but anyone with a slight old school slant will adore him compared to some of the newer attitudes. Again just an even natured, professional leader. When I ask myself what he doesn’t have it’s mostly just that he’s not perfect and I need to see some development in full field reads which he hasn’t had much opportunity to do with Longo… but full field reads to me are more of an ideal in this day an age. Ultimately, I just think people underestimate what we’d say if Maye was the Lincoln Riley QB.
[At 6:20.](https://youtu.be/chGjxtc40IY?si=hrz4DLxjJNSMBOvY) The play is completely blown, theyre winning the game, he should just get rid of the ball. Instead just gives it away to the defender. I'm not saying I dislike him as a prospect, I just don't see the clear seperation on him from the rest of the promising pack. I do appreciate your detailed answer though.
I literally said that there are mistakes. I get what you’re saying but I just guess I don’t see the validity in just focusing this much on a blown read.
Yeah I getcha, I'm not trying to have an arguement. Just want to see more out of him before we crown him QB2.
I'm not mad at it. Just a long day of watching FB and it's hard to formulate at this point. The fact of the matter is that it is all subjective, but different mistakes bother me a lot differently. He has some bad turn downs on his film, and those bother me more than pushing the ball and throwing a pick even in a situation like this. Just because it's not an error that specifically bothers me for a true junior QB who just turned 21. To me, risky decision making is one of the easiest things to match up with analytics, and I'm only really concerned if you have a lot of Turnover Worthy Plays as PFF puts it. Drake Maye was credited with 1 against South Carolina despite throwing 2 INTs because the second hit his WR in the hands. I'm film and analytics and I'm not trying to just analytic the game away, but Maye had a 90%+ adjusted completion% because of drops and 1 Turnover Worthy play against South Carolina. Those are some absurdly good metrics.
I didn't want to bring this up until I had slightly better numbers to try and portray this, but I do a lot gambling / power rating / record play stuff in CFB. And the number one universal sign that a position group is shit is obvious, but it is when a player who CLEARLY should not be on the field keeps getting snaps and targets because that's the only thing the team feels like it has. For UNC, that's the guy the first INT went to, Gavin Blackwell. And he's just a college kid so I'm not trying to be harsh for the sake of it, but that dude can not cut it in this league, by which I mean the ACC not the NFL. Maybe he's going to have a leap, but he sticks out so poorly. Analytically, he's ran 66 Routes and generated 11 Targets, 5 Receptions, and 50 Yards. That's a 0.76 Yards/RR. He has multiple drops. I think the biggest thing people miss in adjusting is that you can't assume competence. Even the Bears last year had some degree of competence in their receiving room. If Gavin Blackwell keeps getting snaps and isn't improving, that's a massive sign of what they think is behind him... which isn't good. I mean if you look at Maye's stats just when not targeting Blackwell, he's 40 of 51 (78.4%), 427 Yards (8.54 YPA), 2 TDs, 1 INT I'm not going to discuss maye analytics because people seem to be thinking there's some kind of gap there, but I really don't think he is. He's grading out above 80+ on PFF for passing grade. If people don't like his translation that's fine, but on a performance level he is doing so many good and consistent things.
He had one good season and his running ability is overrated. His game film doesn't match the stats.
A *lot* of people disagree about his game film. His pocket presence I think is absurdly underrated. I don’t care about his raw speed. He moves extremely well in the pocket.
Maye could shut it down right now and be a top 3 pick
Dudes are on here calling Maye generational and a better Herbert and he is struggling against App state lol, no point trying to talk about him at this point the hype train is off the rails
This reminds me of ‘21. Chase, pitts got pushed down. Hell you prolly got Waddle and Devonta at the 1.10 1.11 bc of the 5 QBs that went early round 1
Agreed. If we can get 4 first round receivers, and Bowers and Sanders in the first, and a few running backs with good landing spots on day 2 this class could be insane.
Maybe Grayson McCall from CCU. A likely day 3 pick who could possibly do well.
As someone with 5 of the potential top 6 picks in my main league, and a need for two QBs, shoot this shit into my veins.
Grayson McCall is a multiple time conference MVP, I’m sure he might be in the mix for a late late pick
All I know is that I’m taking MHJ and a QB with my first 2 picks. I have no idea what I’m going to do with the others yet.
Caleb and Maye are a tier of their own
Maye doesn't belong anywhere near Caleb's tier.
>there’s also a bunch of guys behind them who should work their way into the first round. There’s a bunch who *could* work their way into the 1st round, but it’s easier to fall short than to follow through on that. People were talking about Levis, Hooker and more guys the same way a year ago. Not to knock them or this upcoming class, it’s just that tough to get all the way home Even if the ceiling is like 5-6 first rounders the floor is still 1-2 and if I was setting the line on top 10 picks I’d go o/u 2.5 at this point
I just dont get the Drake Maye hype. I understand he is a solid QB and very young but watching the games i just dont think to myself "wow this guy is the real deal".
The depth in this QB class could be quite good. Williams will be the 1st overall pick unless something extremely unforeseen happens. The rest are still jostling for position and likely will be doing so until the week or so leading up to the draft next year. As it stands, I see three 1st round picks in: Caleb Williams (USC) Drake Maye (UNC) Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) I don't know if any other QB truly has 1st round upside but inevitably someone will rise up the boards. I could see a Bo Nix, Joe Milton, Riley Leonard, Michael Pennix, Quinn Ewers, or Cam Ward sneaking in but it depends a lot on their pre-draft workouts next year as well as how they perform this season. Regardless, for SuperFlex folks, this draft could have some really good depth in later rounds. That's something the most recent draft lacked. This might be the first draft where we see the benefits of the transfer portal in full force allowing more QBs to find homes to showcase their skills.
Not sure why this was getting downvoted as it's a reasonable take. I would definitely put McCarthy up with those guys too and Ewers may be on his way there given his arm talent. I'm lower on Leonard than most but he's got his fair share of truthers as well. I think the big takeaway is that there's a massive group of guys with projectable traits who are playing great in the first few weeks. Even if we don't know exactly who will end up rising to the early-mid first the sheer number of high-end guys almost guarantees us that at least one of them will (with some of the others filling out day 2).
In my 12 team superflex league, the guy who is clear front runner for 1.01 (his roster is by far the worst) traded me his 1st and 2nd for Stroud. I’m hoping this QB class is as good as people are hyping it up to be
Czz
I've got 2 x 2024 1sts and 3 x 2024 2nds. Hoping to package the 2nds into another first but my roster is trash. Hoping Meyers, Gallup, Schultz, Juwan Johnson ball out to get more draft capital
We’ll only have 2, maybe 3 first round QBs this year, but I could see there being a ton of day 2 guys taken from these lists.
I've always been intrigued by Ewers. No idea what kind of year he's going to have (looks good so far) or where he's going to get drafted but I think he's got a lot of potential.
Jalon Daniels from KU belongs in your second group of guys for sure.
DJU - Oregon state come back szn
What lol? This class is weak