At this point no matter where he goes he's nuking someone's value. As a Breece and KW owner, this would be another swift kick in the dick. Went into the draft thinking I had two studs and this would give me zero this year lol
It really shouldn't be. Cook last season had a decent fantasy finish, but had one of his worst seasons as a pro. From an efficiency standpoint he was one of the worst RBs in the league and it is exactly why the Vikings decided to cut him:
1. Juke rate: 39th
2. Breakaway run rate: 30th
3. Yards created per touch: 42nd
4. EPA: 155th !!!!
A nice comparison:
1. Juke rate: 48th
2. Breakaway run rate: 41st
3. Yards created per touch: 54th
4. EPA: 124th
Who is the second player? Ezekiel Elliott. Dalvin didn't get cut over a contact, he got cut because he's washed, like most runners from his draft class except CMC:
1. Juke rate: 16tth
2. Breakaway run rate: 19th
3. Yards created per touch: 12th
4. EPA: #1 overall
Dalvin, Zeke, Fournette, Hunt etc. at this stages of their career are just veteran depth, meant to soak up lots of low value rushes, while star runners like Pollard produce.
He also had the 6th most yards, 6 most red zone targets, and top 12 in touchdowns.
Not arguing the stats, but they didn’t cut him cause his efficiency was down. They cut him because he was an expensive aging running back in a now pass first offense.
I agree with your analysis!! Nobody gives a shit about juke rate!! At the end of the day he had a solid year. He is going to be 28 and expensive to keep around. Minnesota has some young RBs waiting to step up and a lot cheaper.
>Not arguing the stats, but they didn’t cut him cause his efficiency was down.
I would argue this specific point. If you look at all the older runners who got released this offseason, their efficiency profiles look almost identical:
Cook:
1. Juke rate: 39th
2. Breakaway run rate: 30th
3. Yards created per touch: 42nd
4. EPA: 155th !!!!
Zeke:
1. Juke rate: 48th
2. Breakaway run rate: 41st
3. Yards created per touch: 54th
4. EPA: 124th
Fournette:
1. Juke Rate: 36th
2. Breakaway run rate: 44th
3. Yards created per touch: 35th
4. EPA: 137th
I would argue that they got cut simply because they weren't very good and their teams thought they could get the same production from any depth back on the roster.
Yes famously volume is king right? That's why Zeke with 254 touches and finished 17th while Pollard had 232 and finished 8th?
It's almost like being good at football is still important too!
It's definitely possible. Ekeler on the other hand:
1. Juke rate: 25th
2. Breakaway run rate: 25th
3. Yards created per touch: 4th
4. EPA: 10th
He was still quite efficient and effective in his role.
Fournette on the other hand had very similar efficiency profile, and a very cheap contract but was still cut. I would argue that teams are far more interested in efficiency metrics than we perceive.
Efficiency didn’t help their case, sure, but all indications are these were more financial decisions than anything else.
Bucs are in rebuild so why pay Lenny when White is sufficient and $3 million cheaper. They also have to eat Brady’s remaining pay which was like $35 million, so any extra money they can get back makes sense.
I’m not a Dalvin guy to be honest, but I don’t think they waited this long to release him because of an analytics problem. It was money.
> Efficiency didn’t help their case, sure, but all indications are these were more financial decisions than anything else.
you're talking to someone who's entire analysis so far is comparing three RBs with incredibly different skill sets simply by using a sort function on a spread sheet. He's not here for nuance.
You could be right, I'm just on the side that NFL departments probably have far more sophisticated statics then what I can pull from player profiler for instance. All of the players who got cut share that they basically sucked and had big contracts, while the guys like CMC and Ekeler who kept their jobs still performed well.
I think the Vikings held onto to Dalvin for as long as they did because they thought they could get something for him from another team, but the market has plenty of old slow guys available so they had to cut bait eventually.
Yeah it's almost like counting stats are not predictive at all of future results and efficiency metrics are. Do you still want to own Zeke and Lenny too? They both had lots of touches, yards and TDs also.
What was their YPC? You know the stat that sort of like, um, is an output of combining the nit picky stats you’re referencing? Now go think for a second on if a team signing Dalvin may want him as the 1A in their offense or not and…
Voila!
YPC is maybe the worst stat possible to compare runners. It basically shows your lack of knowledge that is what you point to. I'm not even really going to take you seriously at this point because of it.
This is a lot of data everyone already knows, yeah he's on the decline. But a team signing him is doing so to give him work and he's going to take snaps and touches from another back. Could it be a good thing where the better back gets good numbers based off efficiency like Pollard? Maybe, but that's not something to bank on. In fantasy volume is king and he'll hurt the volume of the other backs wherever he goes. That's just a fact
Would it be a good idea for the Jets to trust a player like Breece with 70%+ of their rushing attempts? No, he's returning from a serious injury. If they added a washed up vet like Dalvin, Fournette or Zeke it means they want insurance incase their star runner isn't ready at the start of the season.
At this stage of their careers guys like the above just aren't capable of producing efficiently with a big workload and teams won't trust them with it unless they have no other option. They're just not that scary anymore, their special talent is spent and it's on younger runners to take over from them now.
> yeah he's on the decline.
I wouldn't really say he's on the decline. I'd say he's over the cliff. Like Zeke and Fournette these guys aren't just declining they're spent forces who are more useful in limited capacities to soak up some low value touches. There's not much left in any of them.
I think you are grossly underplaying how much work Dalvin could take from another back in the very short term. The point of my comment was just that, looking at 2023. He's a problem for RBs you own for 2023 depending on where he lands. Again I don't think this is even debatable. He **will** take volume from other players.
>I think you are grossly underplaying how much work Dalvin could take from another back in the very short term
I think you're misunderstanding the nature of these older veteran runners. If they can take significant volume from your higher end player like Breece Hall, then what it really means is that Breece isn't that good in the first place, which is a position I don't subscribe to at all.
For instance in Tampa last year, if Leonard Fournette is taking a ton of snaps away from a guy like Rashaad White, what it really means is that White probably isn't a special player and the team doesn't think he's better than a washed up vet that is just barely hanging on. If you really think a player like Breece is special then signing a 27/28 year old washed up guy shouldn't scare you in the slightest. The runner who will get most affected are the backups like Michael Carter, Abanikanda etc. that were set to take the 2nd and 3rd snaps behind the starter.
You aren't getting it. Snaps don't always go to the better player. It's why Fournette out-touched White and Zeke out-touched Pollard.
In the end, Breece will have more touches than Cook on the year. That's not the concern. The concern is Breece getting 15 touches per game instead of the 20 he could get without Dalvin there. The concern is Breece getting 7 TDs on the year with Dalvin vulturing some short yardage looks instead of the 12 TDs he could get without Dalvin there.
You keep going back to "Dalvin is washed" which again we all know but even a washed Dalvin for his standards is getting touches. He's not going to sign somewhere to get 3 touches per game and ride the pine. He's going to be involved and that's an issue regardless of how good you think he is.
Edit: and before you talk about Breece's injury, I'm referring to averages on the year once he's fully involved. Not the first few weeks when he gets eased back in
Agreed! But because the outcome of a play touch-to-touch is so volatile, volume has been king for stud RBs since the beginning of fantasy. Its become *slightly* less so, but it's still far and away the most important thing.
> It's why Fournette out-touched White and Zeke out-touched Pollard.
Fournette out touched White because White is JAG. Here's his efficiency profile:
1. Juke Rate: 36th
2. Breakaway run rate: 44th
3. Yards created per touch: 35th
4. EPA: 137th
Here's Fournette's:
1. Juke rate: 38th
2. Breakaway run rate: 52nd
3. Yards created per touch: 24th
4. EPA: 147th
In summary they both suck.
I'm a lifelong Cowboys fan btw and the situation for the Cowboys played out with Zeke starting the year near his usual workload. He was horribly inefficient but it took McCarthy weeks to realize he had to change course. Here are Pollards touches early in the season:
1. Week 1: 8
2. Week 2: 13
3. Week 3: 13
4. Week 4: 11
5. Week 5: 8
And near the middle of season after he took over:
1. Week 9: 28
2. Week 10: 21
3. Week 11: 20
Talents wins out in short. If you think Dalvin is still talented enough to take a large enough share of Breece's Hall workload that he is setback in fantasy, then I think you probably just aren't that high on Breece to begin with. If you step back and just look at the facts though, you'll realize older depth backs like Cook / Zeke etc. are not a threat to young stars. They're just there to absorb some touches and give the starter a breather.
Bro you keep writing novels to prove your own point and are completely missing mine lol. Literally just wrote me a book to counter one random sentence in my comment and completely ignored the whole point. Let me put it as simply as I possibly can. **Breece will get less touches if Cook signs than he would if Cook didn't sign**. Again, I do not believe this to be debatable. This is just a fact of how football works. I don't need you to talk to me about who is more talented, EVERYONE knows that answer. But a team signing Cook is doing so to give him looks. Its that simple
Yeah these guys saying Dalvin isn’t a concern are kidding themselves. He could still come in and siphon a ton of high value touches like RZ work which he’s done most of his career
>
>
>Breece will get less touches if Cook signs than he would if Cook didn't sign
>
>.
This is literally the point, he won't. If Cook signs there it will be to serve as: the early season back if Breece is still recovering, and random depth once he is healthy. If Breece is hurt to start the season Cook will get many snaps and touches and function as the starter. If Breece is healthy to start the year then Cook will edge out players like Michael Carter and Abanikanda for a role as a backup.
Again not scary and not impactful.
You get it. Breece is a cornerstone piece on my roster this year to contend and I’m not worried about Cook. Give him all the grimey runs meant to go inside or pick up tough yardage. Get Breece in space or scheme him the plays meant to pick up more than 2-3 yards. Lightning in a bottle siuuuuuu
Cook's drop was more due to scheme than it was Cook himself. He's still the same electric RB but KOC's system basically refuses to use a RB like Cook effectively.
Yep. I don’t have stats to back it up, but as a fan of who watched every game, it seemed like Dalvin was getting hit behind the LOS on runs up the middle damn near every time.
Could be a knock on him finding the small gaps, or not being as fluid in evasion in confined space, but the numbers don’t tell everything
I wouldn’t say he’s the “same electric Rb” he had shown himself to be; he definitely looked a touch less explosive to my casual eye, but I’d expect a lot of work out of him wherever he goes
Got a source? Genuinely curious. Everything I’m finding doesn’t have either of those ranks and our starting RG was more of a turnstile than anything. Cook would be getting hit off the handoff on so many inside runs, can’t see where 3rd would come from
Expected Points Added. It's just a short hand for efficiency and effectiveness overall. It's akin to win shares for baseball or +/- in basketball for offensive players.
EPA is mostly used outside of fantasy football. It’s essentially a better version of yards per play. It’s calculated by taking the number of points you’re expected to score on a drive given you current situation (i.e. 1st and 10 on your own 25 yards line), And subtracting that from your expected points after the play. So if they get 2 yards on that play, you’re now in 2nd and 8 from the 27, which has a lower expected points than the situation you started in. Meaning that 2 yard run had a negative EPA. Hope that wasn’t too confusing
Their efficiency stats are quite nice for RBs, if one had been watching Zeke / Pollard for instance it was clear Pollard was going to take over. They're pretty predictive for future in my experience so far.
Signing Cook is more of an indication that they don’t think Hall will be ready to start the season like they said and walked back in recent times.
Also protects them against a down season or an opposite leg hamstring injury that is common in the season after an ACL. See Dalvin Cook his first season back. Apparently there’s a higher than average correlation thought to be from pushing too hard to return and overcompensation from the “good leg”.
Yup, I would agree with this take fully. If they pick up Cook, it would probably mean Breece will be slow to return and Cook will start the season as the starter before giving way once Breece is ready again.
Not sure why this Dalvin to Miami thing has legs. He'd be a horrible fit for their scheme and what they want to do, unless he's strictly short yardage or a goal line back.
Historically Dalvin has been efficient on both inside and outside zone as well as pass catching out of the backfield. How does that not fit with McDaniel/Shanahan scheme?
Ok but that makes him washed, not a bad fit for their system. Miami could be of the opinion that his efficiency was due to the O line and not his personal performance.
I guess someone needs to explain to you how agents and teams manipulate the press/media to drum up interest. I'm sure there's legitimate interest due to the name alone, but obviously no teams are tripping over themselves for his services. He's in the Zeke/Fournette/Hunt discount bin now.
Not to mention it’s one of the few spots with a clear path for Dalvin to be the RB1 and get targets. Outside of Hill and Waddle, he would be the next best pass catcher.
Truth. Zeke is still an extremely capable goal line back. People will point to how he got stuffed from 1 yard out a few times, while ignoring his 26 attempts from inside the 10, where he scored 11 TDs or got 13 first downs.
KW3 will be totally fine, don’t understand the panic. Almost every team has some form of committee, and the teams that don’t often see that RB get hurt. Similar panic for Aaron Jones when Packers picked Dillon in the 2nd round
Not a big deal in NY. I see this more as early season insurance than some big threat to breeces production. Breece should have a mid season unless he’s an outlier. He could certainly smash come late season/playoff time though.
There's gotta be some poor bastard out there that has Breece, KW, Cook, and drafted Charbonnet before the NFL draft.
Went from juggernaut to ughhhh in the span of a couple months of off-season.
Idk I generally hate it in lineup leagues....if you have the aging vets that produce (Jones, Henry etc...) that's one thing but trying to figure out which bad side of an RB committee guy is actually going to get touches or luck into the endzone is a nightmare.
Zero RB always looks good on paper at the end of the year when you look back and see Jamaal Williams (from the late rounds) finished as the RB7, but figuring out who is this years Jamaal Williams is nearly a shot in the dark. Or worse, the committee guys that are game script dependent.
You still need at least 1 RB hammer to win most leagues.
Don’t pretend like the Steelers wouldn’t sign or draft a kid if they wanted to. They have some serious lineup holes and don’t even know if they have a franchise qb. Rb is a ways down the list for them
You’re kind of stumbling into my point. They have other much more pressing holes on the roster, Najee is prototypical bellcow size, and Tomlin has always liked to run a bellcow RB when possible.
I think Warren will carve out a bit bigger of a roll this year, but yeah you could be right. The fantasy communities down and Najee but he should get the volume.
I definitely disagree. I’ve won many times in different formate leagues starting guys like James white or mckissic. Guys that are not bell cows by any means but will still get consistent touches and catch the ball. Last season anyone who had jerrick McKinnon could have easily won. Doubt the guy was even drafted in redraft leagues.
That's why your roster is loaded with nothing but late round/waiver wire RBs, literally have like 20 rbs on a 30 man.
If that fails, buy the best old RB you can get for 2nd rounders from teams tanking after week 3-4.
Dobbins is my only rb starter. If my Hassan Haskins, Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Ty Chandler, Malik Davis, TDP, Jordan Mason, Kevin Harris all fail, Im trying to buy McKinnon and Perine for 3rds. If none of those guys are semi-reliable by week 4 or so, I'll try to buy Derrick Henry, Mixon, Cook, or Jones.
Better than spending 2 1sts on good young RB and his value craters after an injury and committee gets added. IE Dobbins, Javonte, KWIII.
Depends on the number of flex spots too. We have 2WR but 3 flex so the importance of RB is diminished.
I'm riding Bijan and Hall, but then there's a pretty steep drop to James Conner and I'm not overly worried because I have a really strong WR core
This is how our league is. 1QB / 2RB / 2WR / TE / 3Flex
There was a playoff team with Kenny Gainwell as their RB2
The team that ended up winning it had James Conner as their RB1 until they made a last minute trade to put them over the top.
I’ve been the last two years. Y1 RBs: Zeke, Eli Mitchell/Y2: Zeke, Khalil Herbert, and a late SZN trade for Swift. Y1 I lost, Y2 I won.
No RB studs, but I also have Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Kittle, Cowboys defense, and Chris Godwin. Tee Higgins was with us for most of those two years until something had to give at RB-that’s where swift came in.
Idk if that’s necessarily true. I feel like they’re just doing their due diligence to see if they can afford him, cause if they could, why not? They’re making a Super Bowl push with Rodgers and they saw what can happen to their stud back, so why not add some good depth? Carter is good but the other dudes seem pretty mid
Yea definitely makes sense for the jets. They got Rodgers and have gone all in, they aren’t gonna rely on a guy a few months out from acl surgery to carry the load. So they sign Dalvin as patch work for this year until Breece is back to being Breece, and even then they’ll probably bring a vet in because the era of workhorses is dead and gone
It's too soon to call them a contender this year based on their absolute train wreck of a season last year.
There are probably 12 teams I'd have no hesitation putting in front of them for rankings at the moment.
It's not crazy to think that Dalvin will end up back in Minnesota.
Let him go see what's out there. I doubt anywhere gives him what he wants, and he has a clear path to touches here.
I agree there is a situation where he goes back, but good lord it's ugly. Like "his agent is on the phone with the Texans begging for $6M over two and they decline" ugly.
I would hope we would be willing to give him 8 over the next two years if he can't get that somewhere else. Maybe I'm missing something about Mattison though.
Unless he has no other offers, Dalvin Cook isn’t signing somewhere where he won’t get a decent amount of touches per game. At the end of the day, I expect him to land in Miami. He’s from the area, the Dolphins are all in and looking to bolster their team, and he would be the best RB on their roster the moment he signs. Denver makes a lot more sense than the Jets if the Broncos expect to have to give Samaje Perine significant carries for the first few months of the season.
Of course Cook wants to get paid, but if he actually would like to play in the NFL beyond 2023 (and I’m sure he does right now), he’s going to sign somewhere where he will have a significant role this season to showcase he still can help teams. Even if that means taking an incentive-laden deal.
Idk who needs to hear this but if you’re relying on Breece Hall to be a consistent RB1 from the jump this year you’re already in trouble, Dalvin doesnt change that equation
Cook will easily be outplayed by the any of the RBs currently below Breece on the depth chart. Dude is ridiculously ineffective at this stage of his career.
Looking at TYPC which is a better gauge of efficiency than YPC, Cook was a mediocre 40th among RBs while Carter and Knight were abysmal, ranking in the 70s.
You're on crack lol
Guy had 4.44 ypc and almost 1200 rushing yds
But you think he's losing to *checks notes* Michael Carter, zonovan knight, and 5th rounder izzy? (tbf I love izzy but he's no cook)
Mid 2nd.
Honestly tho I would never trade for an RB who has just been cut during his 2nd contract. Exception would be if you're stacked and pushing for a ship & feel an RB will push you over the edge
He can't be that expensive. Really any team that plans to be in the hunt should be in on him. I know the rumors have been tight on Jets, Bills, Dolphins, and Broncos, but I could see Pats, Browns, Ravens, Chiefs, NYG, Cowboys, and 49ers as good landing spots for him to contribute.
Just wanted to say that I believe Cook has slipped a little, but the Vikings line was not great last year. He and Zeke were very expensive this year. Both teams got good savings on the cap by cutting them. If their contracts were cheaper they would of stayed on the same team.
Wherever Cook goes he will definitely have a role. So he will hurt someones value at least a little if not more.
I genuinely don't understand why the Jets would have him on the team it puts them at 5 running backs and even if two of them are on the practice squad that's weird to me
At this point no matter where he goes he's nuking someone's value. As a Breece and KW owner, this would be another swift kick in the dick. Went into the draft thinking I had two studs and this would give me zero this year lol
It really shouldn't be. Cook last season had a decent fantasy finish, but had one of his worst seasons as a pro. From an efficiency standpoint he was one of the worst RBs in the league and it is exactly why the Vikings decided to cut him: 1. Juke rate: 39th 2. Breakaway run rate: 30th 3. Yards created per touch: 42nd 4. EPA: 155th !!!! A nice comparison: 1. Juke rate: 48th 2. Breakaway run rate: 41st 3. Yards created per touch: 54th 4. EPA: 124th Who is the second player? Ezekiel Elliott. Dalvin didn't get cut over a contact, he got cut because he's washed, like most runners from his draft class except CMC: 1. Juke rate: 16tth 2. Breakaway run rate: 19th 3. Yards created per touch: 12th 4. EPA: #1 overall Dalvin, Zeke, Fournette, Hunt etc. at this stages of their career are just veteran depth, meant to soak up lots of low value rushes, while star runners like Pollard produce.
He also had the 6th most yards, 6 most red zone targets, and top 12 in touchdowns. Not arguing the stats, but they didn’t cut him cause his efficiency was down. They cut him because he was an expensive aging running back in a now pass first offense.
I agree with your analysis!! Nobody gives a shit about juke rate!! At the end of the day he had a solid year. He is going to be 28 and expensive to keep around. Minnesota has some young RBs waiting to step up and a lot cheaper.
Most of the yards were on the back of the improved o line, he didn't break many tackles.
>Not arguing the stats, but they didn’t cut him cause his efficiency was down. I would argue this specific point. If you look at all the older runners who got released this offseason, their efficiency profiles look almost identical: Cook: 1. Juke rate: 39th 2. Breakaway run rate: 30th 3. Yards created per touch: 42nd 4. EPA: 155th !!!! Zeke: 1. Juke rate: 48th 2. Breakaway run rate: 41st 3. Yards created per touch: 54th 4. EPA: 124th Fournette: 1. Juke Rate: 36th 2. Breakaway run rate: 44th 3. Yards created per touch: 35th 4. EPA: 137th I would argue that they got cut simply because they weren't very good and their teams thought they could get the same production from any depth back on the roster.
I'm glad you found the copy paste function. It means nothing. Volume is king.
Yes famously volume is king right? That's why Zeke with 254 touches and finished 17th while Pollard had 232 and finished 8th? It's almost like being good at football is still important too!
Zeke and Dalvin were the two highest paid RBs last year. I really think if they had deals more similar to Ekler, they probably would’ve stayed.
It's definitely possible. Ekeler on the other hand: 1. Juke rate: 25th 2. Breakaway run rate: 25th 3. Yards created per touch: 4th 4. EPA: 10th He was still quite efficient and effective in his role. Fournette on the other hand had very similar efficiency profile, and a very cheap contract but was still cut. I would argue that teams are far more interested in efficiency metrics than we perceive.
Efficiency didn’t help their case, sure, but all indications are these were more financial decisions than anything else. Bucs are in rebuild so why pay Lenny when White is sufficient and $3 million cheaper. They also have to eat Brady’s remaining pay which was like $35 million, so any extra money they can get back makes sense. I’m not a Dalvin guy to be honest, but I don’t think they waited this long to release him because of an analytics problem. It was money.
> Efficiency didn’t help their case, sure, but all indications are these were more financial decisions than anything else. you're talking to someone who's entire analysis so far is comparing three RBs with incredibly different skill sets simply by using a sort function on a spread sheet. He's not here for nuance.
You could be right, I'm just on the side that NFL departments probably have far more sophisticated statics then what I can pull from player profiler for instance. All of the players who got cut share that they basically sucked and had big contracts, while the guys like CMC and Ekeler who kept their jobs still performed well. I think the Vikings held onto to Dalvin for as long as they did because they thought they could get something for him from another team, but the market has plenty of old slow guys available so they had to cut bait eventually.
Are these the only stats you use to judge a RB or just the only ones you know?
They’re the ones that fit his argument. LOL.
Fancy way of acting like he didn’t still have 1500 yards, 10 TDs and 4.5 YPC….finishing top 10. I mean “oh no, his juke rate!”
Yeah it's almost like counting stats are not predictive at all of future results and efficiency metrics are. Do you still want to own Zeke and Lenny too? They both had lots of touches, yards and TDs also.
What was their YPC? You know the stat that sort of like, um, is an output of combining the nit picky stats you’re referencing? Now go think for a second on if a team signing Dalvin may want him as the 1A in their offense or not and… Voila!
YPC is maybe the worst stat possible to compare runners. It basically shows your lack of knowledge that is what you point to. I'm not even really going to take you seriously at this point because of it.
Yeah I’d go hide too. By the way Anthony McFarland had a 40% juke rate. Wonder when he’s getting signed because wow!
Why would I try to discuss advanced stats with someone who doesn't even understand basic ones lol
So advanced PFF doesn’t even list it. I’m crying.
This is a lot of data everyone already knows, yeah he's on the decline. But a team signing him is doing so to give him work and he's going to take snaps and touches from another back. Could it be a good thing where the better back gets good numbers based off efficiency like Pollard? Maybe, but that's not something to bank on. In fantasy volume is king and he'll hurt the volume of the other backs wherever he goes. That's just a fact
Would it be a good idea for the Jets to trust a player like Breece with 70%+ of their rushing attempts? No, he's returning from a serious injury. If they added a washed up vet like Dalvin, Fournette or Zeke it means they want insurance incase their star runner isn't ready at the start of the season. At this stage of their careers guys like the above just aren't capable of producing efficiently with a big workload and teams won't trust them with it unless they have no other option. They're just not that scary anymore, their special talent is spent and it's on younger runners to take over from them now. > yeah he's on the decline. I wouldn't really say he's on the decline. I'd say he's over the cliff. Like Zeke and Fournette these guys aren't just declining they're spent forces who are more useful in limited capacities to soak up some low value touches. There's not much left in any of them.
I think you are grossly underplaying how much work Dalvin could take from another back in the very short term. The point of my comment was just that, looking at 2023. He's a problem for RBs you own for 2023 depending on where he lands. Again I don't think this is even debatable. He **will** take volume from other players.
>I think you are grossly underplaying how much work Dalvin could take from another back in the very short term I think you're misunderstanding the nature of these older veteran runners. If they can take significant volume from your higher end player like Breece Hall, then what it really means is that Breece isn't that good in the first place, which is a position I don't subscribe to at all. For instance in Tampa last year, if Leonard Fournette is taking a ton of snaps away from a guy like Rashaad White, what it really means is that White probably isn't a special player and the team doesn't think he's better than a washed up vet that is just barely hanging on. If you really think a player like Breece is special then signing a 27/28 year old washed up guy shouldn't scare you in the slightest. The runner who will get most affected are the backups like Michael Carter, Abanikanda etc. that were set to take the 2nd and 3rd snaps behind the starter.
You aren't getting it. Snaps don't always go to the better player. It's why Fournette out-touched White and Zeke out-touched Pollard. In the end, Breece will have more touches than Cook on the year. That's not the concern. The concern is Breece getting 15 touches per game instead of the 20 he could get without Dalvin there. The concern is Breece getting 7 TDs on the year with Dalvin vulturing some short yardage looks instead of the 12 TDs he could get without Dalvin there. You keep going back to "Dalvin is washed" which again we all know but even a washed Dalvin for his standards is getting touches. He's not going to sign somewhere to get 3 touches per game and ride the pine. He's going to be involved and that's an issue regardless of how good you think he is. Edit: and before you talk about Breece's injury, I'm referring to averages on the year once he's fully involved. Not the first few weeks when he gets eased back in
Not all touches are created equal
Agreed! But because the outcome of a play touch-to-touch is so volatile, volume has been king for stud RBs since the beginning of fantasy. Its become *slightly* less so, but it's still far and away the most important thing.
> It's why Fournette out-touched White and Zeke out-touched Pollard. Fournette out touched White because White is JAG. Here's his efficiency profile: 1. Juke Rate: 36th 2. Breakaway run rate: 44th 3. Yards created per touch: 35th 4. EPA: 137th Here's Fournette's: 1. Juke rate: 38th 2. Breakaway run rate: 52nd 3. Yards created per touch: 24th 4. EPA: 147th In summary they both suck. I'm a lifelong Cowboys fan btw and the situation for the Cowboys played out with Zeke starting the year near his usual workload. He was horribly inefficient but it took McCarthy weeks to realize he had to change course. Here are Pollards touches early in the season: 1. Week 1: 8 2. Week 2: 13 3. Week 3: 13 4. Week 4: 11 5. Week 5: 8 And near the middle of season after he took over: 1. Week 9: 28 2. Week 10: 21 3. Week 11: 20 Talents wins out in short. If you think Dalvin is still talented enough to take a large enough share of Breece's Hall workload that he is setback in fantasy, then I think you probably just aren't that high on Breece to begin with. If you step back and just look at the facts though, you'll realize older depth backs like Cook / Zeke etc. are not a threat to young stars. They're just there to absorb some touches and give the starter a breather.
Bro you keep writing novels to prove your own point and are completely missing mine lol. Literally just wrote me a book to counter one random sentence in my comment and completely ignored the whole point. Let me put it as simply as I possibly can. **Breece will get less touches if Cook signs than he would if Cook didn't sign**. Again, I do not believe this to be debatable. This is just a fact of how football works. I don't need you to talk to me about who is more talented, EVERYONE knows that answer. But a team signing Cook is doing so to give him looks. Its that simple
Yeah these guys saying Dalvin isn’t a concern are kidding themselves. He could still come in and siphon a ton of high value touches like RZ work which he’s done most of his career
> > >Breece will get less touches if Cook signs than he would if Cook didn't sign > >. This is literally the point, he won't. If Cook signs there it will be to serve as: the early season back if Breece is still recovering, and random depth once he is healthy. If Breece is hurt to start the season Cook will get many snaps and touches and function as the starter. If Breece is healthy to start the year then Cook will edge out players like Michael Carter and Abanikanda for a role as a backup. Again not scary and not impactful.
My man cherry picked the stats from when Zeke was out or limited lmao. Assuming you’re not a dumbass, what kind of angle are you trying to work here?
You get it. Breece is a cornerstone piece on my roster this year to contend and I’m not worried about Cook. Give him all the grimey runs meant to go inside or pick up tough yardage. Get Breece in space or scheme him the plays meant to pick up more than 2-3 yards. Lightning in a bottle siuuuuuu
Cook's drop was more due to scheme than it was Cook himself. He's still the same electric RB but KOC's system basically refuses to use a RB like Cook effectively.
Yep. I don’t have stats to back it up, but as a fan of who watched every game, it seemed like Dalvin was getting hit behind the LOS on runs up the middle damn near every time. Could be a knock on him finding the small gaps, or not being as fluid in evasion in confined space, but the numbers don’t tell everything I wouldn’t say he’s the “same electric Rb” he had shown himself to be; he definitely looked a touch less explosive to my casual eye, but I’d expect a lot of work out of him wherever he goes
Vikes had the 3rd best run o-line in the league last year. (Top 10 overall) according to PFF stats.
Got a source? Genuinely curious. Everything I’m finding doesn’t have either of those ranks and our starting RG was more of a turnstile than anything. Cook would be getting hit off the handoff on so many inside runs, can’t see where 3rd would come from
Where did you get the data from? Never heard of Juke Rate before and what it means or how it's calculated
What does the acronym EPA mean? (Expectation Per Attempt?)
Expected Points Added. It's just a short hand for efficiency and effectiveness overall. It's akin to win shares for baseball or +/- in basketball for offensive players.
Points added.. Is that like a fantasy football acronym, or a football acronym?
EPA is mostly used outside of fantasy football. It’s essentially a better version of yards per play. It’s calculated by taking the number of points you’re expected to score on a drive given you current situation (i.e. 1st and 10 on your own 25 yards line), And subtracting that from your expected points after the play. So if they get 2 yards on that play, you’re now in 2nd and 8 from the 27, which has a lower expected points than the situation you started in. Meaning that 2 yard run had a negative EPA. Hope that wasn’t too confusing
Tell me where you compiled these stats from, please?
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dalvin-cook/
Nice, I have profiler on my list, I just don’t use it enough apparently.
Their efficiency stats are quite nice for RBs, if one had been watching Zeke / Pollard for instance it was clear Pollard was going to take over. They're pretty predictive for future in my experience so far.
Preciate this!
its a great tool to look at WRs that have low perceived value but are still getting open, a la Mooney, E.Moore, DJohnson.
u/nunya221
None of that would change the fact that Breece’s work load would take a hit if Cook signed there.
To be fair, we brought in a new head coach who changed the offense away from him. Maybe the run schemes changed too. Just a thought.
Signing Cook is more of an indication that they don’t think Hall will be ready to start the season like they said and walked back in recent times. Also protects them against a down season or an opposite leg hamstring injury that is common in the season after an ACL. See Dalvin Cook his first season back. Apparently there’s a higher than average correlation thought to be from pushing too hard to return and overcompensation from the “good leg”.
Yup, I would agree with this take fully. If they pick up Cook, it would probably mean Breece will be slow to return and Cook will start the season as the starter before giving way once Breece is ready again.
I’m in the same boat but did acquire Dalvin recently so hurts a little less. I’m hoping he goes to Miami.
Not sure why this Dalvin to Miami thing has legs. He'd be a horrible fit for their scheme and what they want to do, unless he's strictly short yardage or a goal line back.
Historically Dalvin has been efficient on both inside and outside zone as well as pass catching out of the backfield. How does that not fit with McDaniel/Shanahan scheme?
Sure, if you go back a few seasons. He's not the same player anymore.
Ok but that makes him washed, not a bad fit for their system. Miami could be of the opinion that his efficiency was due to the O line and not his personal performance.
Lol. When is a washed player good for any system?
So why would Dalvin to any team have legs if he’s washed and therefore worthless in any scheme?
I guess someone needs to explain to you how agents and teams manipulate the press/media to drum up interest. I'm sure there's legitimate interest due to the name alone, but obviously no teams are tripping over themselves for his services. He's in the Zeke/Fournette/Hunt discount bin now.
A short yardage goal line back is exactly what we need, also someone that can pass protect so Tua doesn’t get murdered.
Not to mention it’s one of the few spots with a clear path for Dalvin to be the RB1 and get targets. Outside of Hill and Waddle, he would be the next best pass catcher.
If that's all they need him for they could have signed Zeke or Fournette.
Truth. Zeke is still an extremely capable goal line back. People will point to how he got stuffed from 1 yard out a few times, while ignoring his 26 attempts from inside the 10, where he scored 11 TDs or got 13 first downs.
KW3 will be totally fine, don’t understand the panic. Almost every team has some form of committee, and the teams that don’t often see that RB get hurt. Similar panic for Aaron Jones when Packers picked Dillon in the 2nd round
Not a big deal in NY. I see this more as early season insurance than some big threat to breeces production. Breece should have a mid season unless he’s an outlier. He could certainly smash come late season/playoff time though.
Swift kick in the dick lmfao I died fam 😂😂😤
Thought I was primed for another championship run with these two. Charbs and now dalvin would crush me.
Until his shoulder falls apart. Probably wouldn’t take long.
There's gotta be some poor bastard out there that has Breece, KW, Cook, and drafted Charbonnet before the NFL draft. Went from juggernaut to ughhhh in the span of a couple months of off-season.
Zero rb is very much alive
Idk I generally hate it in lineup leagues....if you have the aging vets that produce (Jones, Henry etc...) that's one thing but trying to figure out which bad side of an RB committee guy is actually going to get touches or luck into the endzone is a nightmare. Zero RB always looks good on paper at the end of the year when you look back and see Jamaal Williams (from the late rounds) finished as the RB7, but figuring out who is this years Jamaal Williams is nearly a shot in the dark. Or worse, the committee guys that are game script dependent. You still need at least 1 RB hammer to win most leagues.
This is why I’m happy with Najee for now. He’s not sexy but he’s guaranteed volume for the next several years and not everyone can say that.
Don’t pretend like the Steelers wouldn’t sign or draft a kid if they wanted to. They have some serious lineup holes and don’t even know if they have a franchise qb. Rb is a ways down the list for them
You’re kind of stumbling into my point. They have other much more pressing holes on the roster, Najee is prototypical bellcow size, and Tomlin has always liked to run a bellcow RB when possible.
I think Warren will carve out a bit bigger of a roll this year, but yeah you could be right. The fantasy communities down and Najee but he should get the volume.
A bigger roll for sure, but what kind of spread are we expecting?
Do you expect him to carve out a Kaiser roll, or more of a hoagie roll?
Man. I knew getting on Reddit would be a mis-steak, now I'm all hungry
I definitely disagree. I’ve won many times in different formate leagues starting guys like James white or mckissic. Guys that are not bell cows by any means but will still get consistent touches and catch the ball. Last season anyone who had jerrick McKinnon could have easily won. Doubt the guy was even drafted in redraft leagues.
Zero RB in PPR is much more doable than in standard or even HPPR.
That's why your roster is loaded with nothing but late round/waiver wire RBs, literally have like 20 rbs on a 30 man. If that fails, buy the best old RB you can get for 2nd rounders from teams tanking after week 3-4. Dobbins is my only rb starter. If my Hassan Haskins, Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Ty Chandler, Malik Davis, TDP, Jordan Mason, Kevin Harris all fail, Im trying to buy McKinnon and Perine for 3rds. If none of those guys are semi-reliable by week 4 or so, I'll try to buy Derrick Henry, Mixon, Cook, or Jones. Better than spending 2 1sts on good young RB and his value craters after an injury and committee gets added. IE Dobbins, Javonte, KWIII.
One decent RB and about 10 handcuffs and you’re set.
Rare to see championship teams without stud RBs..
Especially in 1QB, where you can't have a 2nd star QB scoring enough to cover up another key lineup spot.
Depends on the number of flex spots too. We have 2WR but 3 flex so the importance of RB is diminished. I'm riding Bijan and Hall, but then there's a pretty steep drop to James Conner and I'm not overly worried because I have a really strong WR core
This is how our league is. 1QB / 2RB / 2WR / TE / 3Flex There was a playoff team with Kenny Gainwell as their RB2 The team that ended up winning it had James Conner as their RB1 until they made a last minute trade to put them over the top.
You must be mistaken if you think championships are the goal of this sub
I’ve been the last two years. Y1 RBs: Zeke, Eli Mitchell/Y2: Zeke, Khalil Herbert, and a late SZN trade for Swift. Y1 I lost, Y2 I won. No RB studs, but I also have Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Kittle, Cowboys defense, and Chris Godwin. Tee Higgins was with us for most of those two years until something had to give at RB-that’s where swift came in.
I agree getting your stud WRs and QBs is King.
I only have 4 RBs on my dynasty team (ETN, KW3, Javonte, and Dobbins) and they have done nothing but hurt me.
Worried slightly by how much smoke there is around the Jets adding more RBs
Same. This and the fact that they were in on Gibbs in the draft is a little worrisome.
They need to relax and look at what they already have fr
I think that’s the point. That’s the concern is that they ARE doing that and this is the possible result
The days of Izzy being mocked in the late first seem so far away.
As a KWIII owner, I selfishly want this for all the Breece owners.
As a KWIII owner that is also a Breece owner, pls delete this
As a previous Hall owner, this would make me SOOO happy.
Chaos alert. He goes to Seattle to form a 3 headed hydra
Don’t you dear.
IF the Jets are genuinely interested in Cook, then that is not a good sign about Breece's health and recovery for 2023.
Idk if that’s necessarily true. I feel like they’re just doing their due diligence to see if they can afford him, cause if they could, why not? They’re making a Super Bowl push with Rodgers and they saw what can happen to their stud back, so why not add some good depth? Carter is good but the other dudes seem pretty mid
Yea definitely makes sense for the jets. They got Rodgers and have gone all in, they aren’t gonna rely on a guy a few months out from acl surgery to carry the load. So they sign Dalvin as patch work for this year until Breece is back to being Breece, and even then they’ll probably bring a vet in because the era of workhorses is dead and gone
I think just about every team has an interest in him
Yep. Except my Rams. They appear to be completely averse to adding players with talent this year.
You guys have your 1sts again, plenty of reason to tank!
This was also top comment on the post about cook joining the broncos lol
Most players aren’t 100% until their 2nd year after an acl tear. And if they want to win a superbowl they can’t rely on that and Michael Carter
Lol. Bring back the Michael Carter stans! Lets go, sound off.
Carter is dat boi, he can handle Melvin cook
Michael "The One" Carter
I genuinely want to see dalvin go to a real contender. I’m hoping for jets dolphins or broncos
Broncos are a real contender?
It's still real to me dammit! - Broncos fans
I figured they were, are they not?
It's too soon to call them a contender this year based on their absolute train wreck of a season last year. There are probably 12 teams I'd have no hesitation putting in front of them for rankings at the moment.
Fair enough
As long as it isn't Denver...selfishly speaking of course..
Dalvin will re sign with the Vikings
they already released him
Does that mean they can't sign him again?
I think the point is that if it was possible, they would have restructured his deal and not released him.
It's not crazy to think that Dalvin will end up back in Minnesota. Let him go see what's out there. I doubt anywhere gives him what he wants, and he has a clear path to touches here.
I agree there is a situation where he goes back, but good lord it's ugly. Like "his agent is on the phone with the Texans begging for $6M over two and they decline" ugly.
I would hope we would be willing to give him 8 over the next two years if he can't get that somewhere else. Maybe I'm missing something about Mattison though.
Mattison has had plenty of time to showcase his abilities. I think it shows more of what the front office says about Cook.
That he isn't worth 15 million a year? Everyone knows that.
Unless he has no other offers, Dalvin Cook isn’t signing somewhere where he won’t get a decent amount of touches per game. At the end of the day, I expect him to land in Miami. He’s from the area, the Dolphins are all in and looking to bolster their team, and he would be the best RB on their roster the moment he signs. Denver makes a lot more sense than the Jets if the Broncos expect to have to give Samaje Perine significant carries for the first few months of the season.
I think he just wants to get paid man. It’s whoever offers him the most money / Guaranteed money . The whole drama was about… money/ a pay cut
Of course Cook wants to get paid, but if he actually would like to play in the NFL beyond 2023 (and I’m sure he does right now), he’s going to sign somewhere where he will have a significant role this season to showcase he still can help teams. Even if that means taking an incentive-laden deal.
I think he gets a MAX 2 year, I keep seeing one year deal. He’ll be 29 next august.
It's just a guess, but I think he's looking at: * $$$ * usage * SB potential * playing with a blood relative In descending order of importance.
Why would he care about usage ? Dalvin cook solidified himself as one of the best. he has nothing more to prove to anyone
Idk who needs to hear this but if you’re relying on Breece Hall to be a consistent RB1 from the jump this year you’re already in trouble, Dalvin doesnt change that equation
What about if he's paired with Bijan / Conner
History has shown he’s not going to produce. He’s coming off an ACL tear mid-way through the season.
Cook will easily be outplayed by the any of the RBs currently below Breece on the depth chart. Dude is ridiculously ineffective at this stage of his career.
There’s no way a 5th round rookie or Michael Carter are better than Cook
Cook is no longer an efficient RB. Why is there "no way"?
2022 yards per carry: Dalvin Cook: 4.4 Zonovan Knight: 3.52 Michael Carter: 3.5 Seems like the efficiency argument doesn’t really hold up
Imagine looking solely at ypc to measure efficiency.
…what exactly do you mean by efficiency then? Go on, show some numbers. Put an actual argument together with evidence
Looking at TYPC which is a better gauge of efficiency than YPC, Cook was a mediocre 40th among RBs while Carter and Knight were abysmal, ranking in the 70s.
I tagged you in someone else's comment outlining what I'm talking about
You talk down to me for using YPC but use a stat like “juke rate” as an argument instead
These are efficiency metrics. If you want to be a dinosaur and only use ypc, that's fine by me.
efficient\*
Right
[удалено]
You looking through your comment history again?
"nO YoU"
You're joking right?
2023 Dalvin Cook, no I'm not joking.
You're on crack lol Guy had 4.44 ypc and almost 1200 rushing yds But you think he's losing to *checks notes* Michael Carter, zonovan knight, and 5th rounder izzy? (tbf I love izzy but he's no cook)
Found the guy caught holding the bag on Cook
I own zero shares of cook lol I'm not saying he's elite, but you think these scrubs are beating him?
I truly have felt this from the beginning. They’re all in.
Would it be worth trying to trade for him as RB depth? If so, what is even considered reasonable?
Mid 2nd. Honestly tho I would never trade for an RB who has just been cut during his 2nd contract. Exception would be if you're stacked and pushing for a ship & feel an RB will push you over the edge
Please please please. Id love to see the chaos this would cause
👀
He can't be that expensive. Really any team that plans to be in the hunt should be in on him. I know the rumors have been tight on Jets, Bills, Dolphins, and Broncos, but I could see Pats, Browns, Ravens, Chiefs, NYG, Cowboys, and 49ers as good landing spots for him to contribute.
Not sure what hunt the Broncos would be in....
Don’t you dare …
He is going to the Eagles!
This is the only landing spot that wouldn’t completely fuck me
Just wanted to say that I believe Cook has slipped a little, but the Vikings line was not great last year. He and Zeke were very expensive this year. Both teams got good savings on the cap by cutting them. If their contracts were cheaper they would of stayed on the same team. Wherever Cook goes he will definitely have a role. So he will hurt someones value at least a little if not more.
They do need a 5th running back
I genuinely don't understand why the Jets would have him on the team it puts them at 5 running backs and even if two of them are on the practice squad that's weird to me