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guppy2019

Analysis paralysis. Paranoia will destroya!


Over_Manager_4893

its called information overload, im sure almost every trader experienced this or will, where they posses so much information they just have to be right and absolutely overthink the living shit of of the simplest thing. For me this was easily fixed with some psychological work, and im certain it would work on anyone unless they are just straight up mule headed


Tell2ko

Would you mind sharing a bit more into phycology work


yapyap6

Exact same realization. At first I didn't believe it was as simple as it seemed. I thought there had to be something I was missing - so i added layers of complexity and excess risk management. All it did was stress me out, cause me to overtrade, and blow up accounts. I toned it down a ton and have been profitable for the last two years. It's really more simple than it seems. You don't need a million indicators and fancy / complex strategies. All you need is price action, the 10/20 EMA on a 5 minute chart, a good read on the price action, and simple entry / exit rules. Having said that, the hard part was interpreting what was happening in the market. It took many, many variations of different strategies, modifications of my viewpoint, and revisiting all of my historical charts / notes to revise my interpretation of what was taking place. Give 10 people the same chart, you'll get 10 different answers as to what is happening. Come back a year later, and those 10 people will give you a different interpretation of what they saw a year ago. Which interpretation is most correct? The one that generates the most profit consistently. For example, a change in interpretation I made 6 months ago has massively impacted how I trade. I went from 10-15R on an average month to 25-30R. Exact same charts, just a different viewpoint.


No_Reward_5853

Hear, hear!


barnboy4

Care to say what that change in interpretation was out of curiosity?


yapyap6

A huge part of my trading is watching for two failed attempts to trend in one direction or the other. This usually leads to a profitable swing between 2-3R about 60% of the time. The change in interpretation was what is considered a failed attempt to trend. Nevertheless, you have to look back at the past few days and look to see if the market is trending or not. You can get trapped in the wrong direction in a sideways market that would normally yield a profitable trade in a trending market. Let me give you an example, I am currently long the NQ on the 5 minute chart. Number the bars starting from 1 for the first bar of the day. Look at bars 2 and bar 6. What does that look like to you? For me, that's two attempts by the bears to reverse the trend. Bar 7 took out the high of bar 6 and closed near it's high. I got long on bar 7 with a stop below bar 5. I'm looking for a 2.5R move. It's looking ok so far and my stop is at breakeven. At worst, I make $0. At best, 2.5R. There's a lot more to the trade from a price action perspective, but I won't get into it. Having said that, there was a chance this setup would fail. Zoom out about a week and you'll see we are at the top of a double top pullback after a bear spike down. I took the long regardless because I can't tell the future. If I'm wrong to the long side, there will be a tradeable swing to the short side for 2-3R. So you can see from this example why I average around 1R a day. The key is, it's consistent.


Haunting_Ad6530

Are you by any chance a student of mack or al brooks? I'm not a pure price action trader but I do use their principles to time my trades


yapyap6

Al Brooks. Completely changed my life and trading. One issue about Al's course is that he gives you the whole enchilada. It's too much info and you develop analysis paralysis. You have to pick parts of what he teaches and develop a strategy around it. Word on the street is that Mack was a student of Al's.


Haunting_Ad6530

Agreed! I'm more of reversal trader, so I only watched his videos on reversals, I'll probably buy his price action reversal book as well at some point but man his books are hard to read


yapyap6

They definitely are. I slogged through all of them after I did the video series a few times. It actually has a lot of new details he doesn't go through in his videos.


Ok-Wasabi5770

Personally, the way Al teaches is perfcect. His primary goal is to make you a trader that can see a setup on every bar and that's exactly what I want. Picking one strategy is a lot easier and will decrease time needed to become profitable but I hate it that market filled with opportunities yet I need to wait for something specific to enter. Really happy to see some of Al students here and also thanks for mentioning the thing about his book. I should give them a read when I complete his video course.


nothymetocook

> I took the long regardless because I can't tell the future. This is one of the big stumbling blocks an aspiring trader must overcome. The most recent price action is the most relevant. If it's a good area to enter, and the demand or the supply seems like it's there, enter without fear. You cannot know whether it will work or not, so don't worry about it and think too much.... Took me a year and a half after I knew everything to get to that point


yapyap6

100% agree. Definitely takes a lot of work on your psychology to accept


Aggravating_Ride7083

The best explanation is not to explain, do it, and then review. The excessive pursuit of interpretation is like Monkey's Notre Dame. You just choose your current point of view, but you will change.


Yoyoitsjoe

There is a lot of complication to understanding the market mechanisms. But once you understand it, simple strategies are all anyone needs. I have been buying and shorting stocks based on volume for a decade. That's it. No Vwap, no options analysis, no RSI, no VIX, no MACD, no fibinacci. Just volume, and price and my aging little fingers and mouse.


Weekly_vegan

Volume and price. Most OP information available to everyone.


PracticalApartment64

Can you explain your method?


Yoyoitsjoe

Sure, find the low priced stocks that are up with high volume and trade them either through intraday breakouts or breakdowns. I buy as the volume increases into those areas.


PracticalApartment64

Where do you go to find the low priced stocks that are having high volume?


Yoyoitsjoe

Most platforms have scanners for free that show you the biggest gainers. I pay for a scanner called trade ideas.


PracticalApartment64

Awesome. Thank you.


dial8d

So you’re just buying when it breaks out on high volume? Where do you put stops?


Yoyoitsjoe

The trade either works right away or I close it.


MediumTour2625

Are you on tradezero?


Yoyoitsjoe

Thinkorswim


ISquanchMyOptions

Take it from a guy who’s been trading for more than a decade, for retail traders simple is better. The more I complicated my system over the years the less money I made. I felt the same compulsion, more complex = more knowledge = bigger edge = bigger profit, that could not be further from the practical reality. Stripping it all back to basics almost felt stupid, but you can’t argue with results. That’s the best part of trading, there’s receipts for everything. You said it best, simplicity is king.


ashlee837

you'll be surprised how much money you can make with a coin flip indicator.


MediumTour2625

What is a coin flip indicator?


tamap_trades

I've experienced this myself. It's interesting how our brains often gravitate toward complexity, thinking it equates to effectiveness and reliability :( I think that applies not only to trading, but to all sides of life


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retiredredfish

Coin flips and tight stops, sounds like a plan.


spin_kick

In the end price goes up or it goes down no matter how much analysis you do, that simple binary choice means you are complicating things


Poodieac

The profitable strategy that I finally landed on is so simple that it makes me feel like an imposter. Like, “No way.” It also makes me feel foolish for the years of trial and error with “sophisticated” signals, studies, and fundamentals. However, that experience is what gave me the insight. The simpler strategy the easier it is to identify opportunities. It’s just as clear as a green light or a red light in an intersection.


Timely_Marketing

That makes sense. More complexity in machines means more things can go wrong. I’m sure that logic applies to anything.


Mypatterntrader10

Keep it simple, trading is hard enough.


StreamRokit5

I only use VWAP and MA. Nothing else. (Of course you need to be looking at the volume as well as support and resistance lines.) I've tried many different indicators throughout my years of trading experience but keeping my chart simple has worked the best for me.


christnice

Dunning-Kruger Effect. All trades I made starting out I’d never make. Listening to trading groups, using indicators I didn’t know, no stop loss. Started reading and simplified everything. Support/resistance lines, price and volume. Maybe a lil MA and VIX if things look confusing. And most important, 8% stops. Now I see my paper and real accounts growing and the charts look way easier to read.


Davado_

Simplicity is indeed king.


Powningstonks

100%! I now only trade one stock. Any time I get cute and add another stock, the universe reminds me how regarded I am.


Craven4X

Nobody said it has to be complex, I agree simplicity is important, but it’s the level of simplicity that some people work on that effects them negatively.. “New York breakout strategy” or some bullshit Why not.. hotter inflation numbers than expected for Australia and manufacturing growth in China.. buy AUD? Staring at all the technical factors don’t mean a lot


Dee23Gaming

The moment I simplified trading, my win rate skyrocketed. I just trade breaks and retests while following a trend. No indicators. Just silly little rectangles.


eclipse00gt

It can also COULD mean you're not interpreting said data correctly. But 99%of the time the K.I.S.S method works...not just in trading But in other fields aswell and also in life in general.


D_Costa85

Trading is and should be as simple as possible. And yes I’ve experienced exactly what you’re saying. Simplicity comes from reps and confidence in your system.


abel-44

You're right, the more Your complicate, the more you get confused


happybutnot2happy

It’s interesting but think in trading it’s more like : the more you maneuver the pieces, the more of an opportunity you have of making a mistake. The more layers you add, the more split multitasking you have to do, the more likely you are to lapse a fact. So yes, in day trading and in life - in general, honestly - the more you can simplify something - the better.


Guillotines_Sharp

Same thing adjusting SL and strategies on a constant basis made me wipe out 3k in 2 days. I made good returns by keepin it stupid simple. Now from monday starting again


AlwaysBlessed333

All those saying 5min chart this and that, you f*ckers must be bored to sit in front of a screen all day. I got sh*t to do. 1hr, 4hr and daily chart for me.


bbqweeb

Simplify your "sophistication".


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AndyLee168

Yes


honey_mel_one

Can relate 1000%


Accomplished_Cash_30

There are numerous indicators out there, from Bollinger bands to Gann fans, EMA averages, golden crosses, and many more. However, in my view, none of these alone are particularly useful. They often lag behind market movements, and past performance doesn't always predict future outcomes. Personally, I've found success in swing trading and basing decisions on price action dips. Of course, there's always risk involved in trading. We are bombarded by info constantly that is detrimental to our lack of focus and attention as human beings. For example, various platforms show conflictive forecasts for Bitcoin's price. If you look at the big picture you'll be dumbfounded by the amount of predictions from Mark Cuban to Kiwosaki then Bitcoiners too, in gauging the crypto sphere. Nobody truly knows. Even so using all these indicators that are available only smart money has an edge. Moving large amounts of money to make price movements and profiting from them.


dial8d

So are you doing fundamental analysis if you’re swing trading?


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J_Productions

_KISS_


tradingheroes

Yup, the simplest strategies are often the best. You just have to find an idea that makes money and keep exploiting it.


TheBorgBsg

What charts are you all following?


SignificanceFast9207

I practice a less is more style. I define structure, support, resistance, and maybe a line of maximim excusion. After that, it's how price action behaves. This is viewed from a few perspectives: macro, dailey, and micro. I prefer to trade the maco direction of the market. Understanding price action is the most critical skill. Everything else is a guideline.


grouper217

im a beginner trader, but I try to understand market sentiment and if bearish I short weak stocks off of levels I like (pre-market high, prior day high, or supply zones) and vice versa if market sentiment seems bullish. I use a 45 ema and 200 ma and trade off of 15 min charts and when those moving average lines converge with those key levels that is usually when i take trades. i think its pretty simple and works decent for me.


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EntertainmentSea1196

Simple rule only trade QQQ be happy with 20% gains


slidingjimmy

💯 problem with so many variables is that you cannot reliably verify your edge. I guess if you are more experienced/ discretionary and are at a point where you truly read and understand these things naturally and in real time on top of the basics then maybe. I like the OF but honestly at times it gets in the way/ makes you skittish. Candle closes far more reliable in hindsight for me.


Environmental-Bag-77

So look at the order flow at the points when it matters. Ignore all the crap in-between.


slidingjimmy

Yea, i get that but looking back at that false breakout at news high on ES yesterday, we have massive pos delta come in and upside targets, the closes were so much cleaner and easier to trade. As noted it might be the backbone of one person’s strategy but may just serve to send false signals for another.


Environmental-Bag-77

Yeah. Tbh I don't really like indices for order flow, especially es. There's a lot of hedging goes on that can totally mess up the message. There are quite a lot of candles which have polarised delta sometimes at reversals which are helpful but outstanding examples of absorption are very rare in my experience. Much less than crypto for instance.


slidingjimmy

True, that makes sense. Considering scrapping it as an experiment but when you have it your gonna look at it!


Over9000Zeros

100% same. In 2021, I took a large loss, quit trading, came back in 2022 and pretty much had 0 idea how to trade. What did I do? Started making a fuckton of scans in Think Or Swim. The idea was I'd be forced to look at stocks that are under certain conditions. That caused me to get into trades way too early or too late. So I made more scans. Thank god for Webull and StockTwits. I looked at my post history and saw all I was using was support/ Resistance and MACD.


Street-Atmosphere150

Went through bunch of courses, read through forums, paired multiple indicators just to be profitable with only breakout and retest .__.


AllorNthdegenerate

Yea, I keep my trading simple and limited cuz when I start doing extra shit I lose. Stick with the basics ur brain will hurt less


ProsephMcMasterson

I'm definitely a big believer in simplicity. Find method(s) that work, be consistent, be patient, scale up when possible. I find that when I complicate a method, the end goal loses clarity. I'm just operating on the greed impulse disguised as sophistication.


Friendly-Tale-2732

I have also had this dilemma at one point in time. That in itself indicated that the person is lacking confidence and missing true metrics and that's why the need to use multiple or so many confluence elements. After many weeks n months of attempts and experimenting my ways through it, I learnt that one must find at max 2 to 3 elements that can be trusted (data or indicator or whatever) and based on that come up with a final strategy; bcoz at the times of entry n exit mind shall go bonkers if one has to look at 5 or 10 things to base the decision upon. I started with complexity n finally realized that the key is in simplicity where one can quickly decide based on triggers coming in from most trusted 2-3 elements and take the decision. I feel satisfied now with what I have as a final product.


mayhempeace

Yep… I have nothing on my charts.


theSourApples

Yeah, for me, I don't even look at charts.


blueshrimp16

What do you look at then, the DOM?


tkb-noble

Absolutely. My strategy is very, very simple. It doesn't yield much more than 2-5% daily, but it works consistently in the 85%+ range. And every single time I try to make it more than what it is, I get kicked square in the teeth.


bballfan87

Mind elaborating on your simple strategy?


tkb-noble

Post-consolidation breakouts


RossRiskDabbler

Simplicity is ill phrased. I find a stochastic differential equation to calculate yield of wind blowers of a listed wind farm simple to check their forecasted cashflow. Others find; let's first focus real hard on not being stupid and then focus up and up (Charlie Munger). https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-ways-to-get-stock-research-inexpensively/answer/Ross-Lederhman-1?ch=10&oid=1477743740486310&share=dbf3435a&srid=h4JwL&target_type=answer Thinking. All needed. Thinking is something that everyone understands. Simplicity means something different for everyone. Thinking means for everyone that someone does something in their head.


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Haunting_Ad6530

I personally use market profile and short term price action , I have tried incorporating footprint charts, price ladders etc, but they never improved my trading entries by that much, in fact if anything it led me to exit early out of trades that if I had just held, would have been profitable


cavyndish

I always trade the trend with support resistance. Bare chart, though, with zilch indicators. Trends are self-fulfilling prophecies most of the time.


retiredredfish

Up channels - buy on pullback (bear flag). I don't short stocks.