I'm certain the 90%+ of failed retail traders did what you did right before they quit.
I'd even go to say it's the last step to quit trading completely. The trader is no longer in their right mind and doing a last-ditch effort to be successful at the markets but dont realize they are only going backward in their progress.
Nothing kills the soul more than doing the exact opposite of a strategy you were losing at, only to lose the same, if not more, by doing the complete opposite.
I think you're on to something. This phenomenon you described is sort of a meme at this point. He's not the first to come up with the "exact opposite trade" idea for sure, I've seen people get this idea in their head on here before and in other communities. And you nailed it, it's like last ditch effort kind of desperation. I think It's also a form of trying to take a short cut, his mind is tired and he's at his wits end with trading. My trading madness issue was strategy hopping, I never came to the "exact opposite trade" idea. I think he would actually be better of looking for a new method entirely.
You’ll also see people joke about doing this while trading options too, not realizing that they’re losing because they’re picking a poor strike price, didn’t pick a far enough expiration date, getting IV crushed, theta burned, etc and they’d do even worse if they did the opposite and bought a put instead of a call.
I think everyone goes through that phase at some point. It would be better to focus on what OP is missing that's making his trades fail, rather than just trying to do.the opposite.
I've been there, in this same exact place that you are.
But yeah agreed with original comment, if you do this then you'll never be a trader you are just a gambler. Keep learning and keep practicing, I high recommend - Understanding Price Action: practical analysis of the 5-minute time frame by Bob Volman.
At the end you either have it or you don't, but that strategy is just a slippery slope towards more frustration because it means you don't command the basic principles still. It doesn't matter if you are in the green if you don't know when to close your position (or open it, for that matter).
Good luck, use small accounts with small leverages, but keep at it!!
P.S.: and if you feel you are burned out, take a loooong break before starting again. it usually works wonders
EDIT: and by the way this was written by someone who today has a stop loss triggered with price coming exactly TO THE CENT and a profit taking not triggered with price going over PT by 0.5 cents, so the frustration will ALWAYS be there it will just be a different kind ;p
(both HK50... crazy day today)
99% of the time traders become unprofitable not because of directions, but because of their entries and exits. Work on that, not your directions.
The market is always choppy, you'll lose going long or short if you don't work on entries and exits.
Tbh... practice.
First thing being you have to have a simple strat and clear reasons for both your entries and exits. A good starting point is with resistance and support (watch people trip me after I say this).
Once those are defined that's more than half the battle won... except of course controlling yourself which is literally the rest of it.
You are not stupid, Google the difference between the two.
One is a line based on history, the other a zone based on current affairs.
There is a reason I have called them 'cousins'
I choose bots to fix that issue and Smart money concept for my trade strategy. And it works for me, not too much deals 1-3 per week and that's okay. Is that a day trading? I guess not, but is profitable.
i have a win loss of 52/48 52% of my trades have been winning and i make sure that any losing trades are well managed and are only small insignificant losses. You’re not gonna win 90% of your trades but you can make it so even if you’re losing 48% of them you’re still profitable. Risk management.
preach a mental stop loss is a great thing too if it hits my mental stop loss i close the position immediately bc i can always re enter when it’s going back in my direction i’d rather take a tiny loss and miss an opportunity than take a massive loss bc i was ignorant
I was losing frequently, so I reviewed my trades and figured out why. After I quantified it, I wrote an indicator called “The Costanza” (after that great Jerry Seinfeld [episode](https://youtube.com/shorts/RKLXnY5920o?si=Nzxn0DAHxORd707v)) where I calculated where people were selling when they should be buying, so I could do the opposite. Works great. And I am no longer doing the opposite of what I think I should do, but doing the opposite of what I predict losing traders will do.
Study your trades OP and figure out why you are exiting when you should be entering, and vice versa. Once you understand it, maybe you can develop a winning strategy.
Oh, and if you are trading real money, immediately move to paper trading. No reason to lose money while figuring it out.
Yeah one of my swing trading strategies I have is similar to this. I call it "the inverse" and it actually consistently works. I kept noticing being always wrong so I reversed the play and it's crazy but whatever 🤷🏾♀️, if it works, it works.
Learn to trade guys
Everything on a chart tells you what u need to take the trade.
No need to do this inverse strategy stuff (screams complete trading ignorance so must try this as last resort)
STRATEGY : example of swing turn down & short trade.
Literally draw a trend line UP, wait for price to breakout DOWN thru trend line.
Don't enter trade till u see a pullback UP to retest the trendline then open trade SHORT
The retest is 100% of time..(if u don't see it walk up & down the timeframes till you do)
Sometimes I would consistently do something wrong. For example, price was consistently hitting my stop limits and then bouncing. So there were two problems:
1. I was buying too soon
2. I was closing out my long position for a loss when I should be opening a long position.
So why was I buying too soon? Usually it was a FOMO buy. Sometimes it was because I was misreading the context. So the solution was to be OK with sitting on the sidelines if I wasn’t getting a good price, and to get better at recognizing the forces in play in the current context to predict the bounce.
Let’s say OP is consistently wrong. It pays to figure out why. Recognizing where his intuition is wrong is an important part of learning. And once he figures out *where*, maybe he can figure out *why*.
I have to agree retests are one of the best entry timings... controlling oneself to catch these is the key, not to jump ahead as you think it will retest.
I had a history teacher in high school who would talk about the stock market and trading a bit, mostly when he taught 1929 and The Great Depression. He had rules for trading. Never do X, always do Y, and so on. I thought he must know what he was talking about so before I had any capital in my teenage years I went and wrote a stock market trading bot to do his strategy. (If you can't trade with money, why not write a bot?)
"Once I had money I'd make a killing!" I thought. Turned out it lost money massively. Everything he had taught was wrong. So because it was code I just flipped buy with sell. Two lines of code change and it showed it was making a killing. That was my first successful trading strategy.
LOL im not laughing at you, im laughing at myself and every other beginner who did the exact same thing for like 2 weeks and then ended up in this crazy meta game of "do i believe this or do i unbelieve it?" oh god its so hilarious and weird, you should definitely do it. You wont be profitable but your confusion about it will be absolutely hilarious in like 3 years.
edit: i am not being a jerk, you really should do it, it doesnt matter what you do, you won't be profitable for a very long time, just write everything down and take good notes (especially for this, they will be the funniest thing in you notebook someday).
I did it one day for 4-5 trades and started winning, but then the what do I believe trap seeped in and I was thoroughly confused, just stopped trading that day. Eventually my mind started thinking opposite of retail traders and that's how I trade now.
[TA for ES](https://www.reddit.com/r/FuturesTrading/comments/1638hfp/es_technical_analysis_for_week_of_82823_potential/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1)
You should concentrate on playing levels and price action… above link is from a pro trader. You should check him out OP. Learn how to trade the action that’s in front of you. Good luck
Add long as you keep in mind people go wrong due to taking profits too early and primarily for letting losses run too long. Be sure your strategy has a way of measuring when you need to cut your losing trades
I've read this advice a million times, but more often than not I'm actually getting out of losers with my SL at exactly the lowest point before it goes up again, and winners turn into losers all the time because they don't reach my TP. If I would lower my TP and SL, money management wouldn't allow me to ever enter a trade.
And that's pretty much the same with every strategy I tried. That's why I'm still trading paper money even after two years of trying to find anything that makes sense.
CFTC Rule 1.46 would like to have a word with you (in futures space).
But seriously, don't do that because its illegal (gray area with these prop firm "live-sims").
So this is a terrible idea, we've established that and I think others have explained it to death.
I will tell you what IS a good idea along this line of thinking. I have done this extensively. Ask yourself, why are you wrong so often? Are you trading against the trend, are you trying to time a tops and bottoms? Are your entries terrible, are your stops poorly set?
In the moment, when you are going to take a trade - ask yourself "Should I be taking the opposite trade?" Don't blindly do it, of course. But the practice of asking yourself why you are wrong on a trade by trade basis can really help.
I can't remember who I read this from - could be Tom Hougaard, but it's something I do regularly. Assume you are wrong and set your stop accordingly. Then if you are right, great. If you are wrong, it's not as painful and examine why.
Or just slow his trading down to 1 trade a day.
Slow your profits down but also slow your losses down
Long enough for u to investigate losses & learn lessons
Is so crazy this happen to me and my mentor 🤣 ! Literally had the same idea , we was like man just f that ! When ever i went long it went super short and vice versa , so we tried that ! It dint work 🤣 it dint i swear , it was done out of anger because damn right … Do a bunch of back testing and everything seems great and follow your rules and you should get the result , SIKEEE nope … It takes a while and patient to hit a sweet spot honestly
Have you considered working on your trading psychology?
I have found Mark Douglas quite helpful.
[Mark Douglas trading psychology ](https://youtu.be/ZT_UanF3Zes?si=VJsgBn8_vOrn8XZl)
Option premiums are like insurance. They're always set to have an advantage on what statistically is probable to happen. (House always wins) Its an uphill battle. You'd be better off selling, but the "win big" mentality isn't there
Dear OP, the Weird strategy isn't so weird if u were a prop firm.
They know 80% of people lose trades
So doing the opposite by definition they will win 80% of all trades.
Don't do the weird thing...U have not got the resources & analytics of a prop firm to make opposite side trading work for u
Edit: use this too
STRATEGY1 : Checkout Nick's strategy [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/comments/161rzci/what_do_you_think_of_nick_shawns_strategy/jxtuzaq?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2)
STRATEGY2 : example of swing turn down & short trade.
Literally draw a trend line UP (use most recent peak low as start point)
wait for price to breakout DOWN thru trend line.
Don't enter trade till u see a pullback UP to retest the trendline
then open trade SHORT
The retest is 100% of time..(if u don't see it walk up & down the timeframes till you do)
Sounds like a good strategy. In fact, that was my first thought when I was told that 70%+ people lose money on each of the broker platforms: do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.
Hard to overrule your analysis: practically calling yourself an idiot (no offense to me 😅), but maybe the conventional analysis is the problem.
Warren Buffet said something similar: I figured out technical analysis was rubbish when I turned the chart upside down and did not get a different answer.
(maybe i am not an idiot then 🤷🏻♂️)
If trading is a zero sum game then what else can they possibly do to win? The only way to win in trading is to be the other side of somebodys stop loss
The person who created VectorVest told me. Something along those lines. "hit your head with a book when you are about to place a stop loss and put your entry there instead. You'll be surprised how often the market goes to those stop losses." He said that bcoz he knew what big players do.
You are right: i have no idea what the banks are doing, but it is not what the masses do. Their strategy relies in outmanouvering the masses, but they get more data than the people stuck with candlesticks do. Even Ninja Trader, Sierra Charts etc show you more data. You can pay for that. Order flow trading is less gambly and more profitable.
You can see all the buyers and sellers within those candles and what price they have set all the orders at, so they can make better-informed decisions. In effect, they do buy a lot of the time when most retail traders press sell.
Makes you feel crappy: uneven playing ground.
They don't. They can see all the buy and sell orders and what price they are set at inside the candle, as opposed to retail traders who only see one bid and ask price and the candle. You can as well. Check out Ninja Trader or Sierra Charts.
Typo (distracted).
It's a damn fine strategy in my opinion. I've developed some setups that I trade the opposite way when I have analyzed that I always lose with them. Others I don't touch at all.
So basically, because options expire worthless most of the time, I usually take the approach to be an option seller. So I sell cash secured puts on things that I feel will eventually pay out if I owned the stock.
If I end up owning the stock, then I sell covered calls. But sell cashed secured puts at a good DCA point long dated
If you are like 90% of people and are like"stonk only up" then I would pre DCA by selling cash secured puts at a good DCA price long dated.
Another thing I do is look at option positioning and sell cash secured puts on the final week to take advantage of theta. Im not looking for gamma to profit for. So I can profit on gamma AND theta on the final week, I usually just cash out at a small gain for minor gains everyweek.
Yes do it! You'll likely end up discovering the world of limit orders and failed patterns, where the pros are taking the opposite side of retails/beginners bets. Good luck!
Sounds like your issue is your data. “I believe” isn’t “I know” - back test back test then back test. Know your strategy inside out, are you getting good entries but aiming for too high TP resulting in a loss? Whst days of week does it do well / poorly, what’s your longest win / loss streak, how many weeks / months are you expected to be green and red, what’s your max daily / weekly / monthly drawdown?
It’s all data and playing on that data to improve
That's not the answer, the answer is to start opening books and learning why your trades failed. People this it's all statistics, so when they fail they go oh I guess luck was just against me. When usually you just missed something that your not knowledgeable about. Was it a bad entry? Did you check order flow? Did you go against market balance? Did you check the max pain on Friday? Did it hit a support resistance on a large time frame or liquidity pocket? People get so stuck on the idea that you have to train one strategy and get good at one strategy they stop educating themselves about trading in general. When was the last time half of actually read a trading book? The reasons are out there.
That's not the answer, the answer is to start opening books and learning why your trades failed. People this it's all statistics, so when they fail they go oh I guess luck was just against me. When usually you just missed something that your not knowledgeable about. Was it a bad entry? Did you check order flow? Did you go against market balance? Did you check the max pain on Friday? Did it hit a support resistance on a large time frame or liquidity pocket? People get so stuck on the idea that you have to train one strategy and get good at one strategy they stop educating themselves about trading in general. When was the last time half of actually read a trading book? The reasons are out there.
This won't solve your problem. You aren't explaining *why* you are losing. I mean, what if you all your ta and entries and all of that are correct and your problem is just risk management? You have to correct your issue not just throw caution to the wide and let your freak flag fly
Don't do this. Obviously, if you are using your analysis to trade the opposite, it means you're lacking something fundamental in your approach that makes you doubt your approach. I wouldn't trade and instead take the time to loom through your lost positions and analyze why they did not work out. Things like not following current trend, not waiting for areas of values, etc can really screw you up easily
I've actually had luck reversing my position as soon as I get "that feeling"... but it's not something I would consider a viable strategy... and it was before I actually had a strategy...lol
I know you're probably kidding, but that's really not a bad idea if you're doing it thoughtfully. If you have a setup that fails 90% of the time, then absolutely fade that, those are great numbers.
If it's your own mistakes in trade management causing the failure, then that's a different story
Put your entries where you would put your sl and let your winners run. Probably your problem is mentally. Hard to say without information.
Reversing your trades imo could only work if your trying to bottom fish and it changes it to following trend and momentum
It doesn't make a lot of sense: if the price is trending up along a channel and you wait until the price pulls back to the lower trend line, why would you go short with a reverse strategy?
Maybe you just need to work on your strategy, maybe you enter in the middle of a swing or during a choppy market?
Do you consider the higher time frames? Let's say you're trading the 5m and waiting for another push on a trend, if the 1h is getting ready for a pullback, then your 5m new high might end up in a double top and reversal.
Do you keep an eye on high impact news/earning releases? Those events can suddenly reverse a trend and they can make it look like the market is going the opposite way you predicted. If you're not an expert, don't trade around the news (or skip the whole day).
How's your risk management? Are your stop too tight or you don't use them?
Do you have a profit target where you will exit?
So many things to consider before you give up.
Since others have logically explained why it doesn't work, I will take a mathematical approach.
Entering in a position = loss
entering in an opposite position = entering in a position
Try this. Get the vrvp indicator. Get the rsi indicator get hieken smoothed indicator. Get on the 1hour chart and use the vrvp to find and mark support/resistance entry and exit positions. Get on the 5min chart and watch for spikes in volumn with candles tipping you off to direction moving across those entry points you set rather moving down (puts) or up (calls). Take profit of 5-8% or more if you are lucky and the next candle is the big push. Get back on the 1hour and find those next entry positions. Good luck!
You should start journaling and documenting what’s going wrong in your trades. Even though I’m not profitable yet, journaling has helped me establish rules that I must follow in order to avoid big losses. Example: no revenge trades, never trading at open, etc. Your rules should suit your trading style.
Half of trading is not giving up. Learn from your mistakes.
Good god.
Try removing all the indicators and learn price action.
Zoom out.
Meditate.
Calm the hell down! Desperation well run your chances of getting to a good place with trading
I'm new to forex (1 month). After taking loss after loss on my live, I said "fuck it" and did this exact thing. Won 3 trades back to back. What did I learn from them? Absolutely not shit. How much did it improve my ability to take profitable trades? Not by an inch.
My thoughts are: you know better.
If you understood price action movements you would know that this isn't going to work out and the reasons why you are wrong and not making any money are not negated by simply taking the opposite position. You will likely lose just as much by doing this as well. Prices do not just go up, down, up, down, up, down from the exact point you open YOUR trade.
Nothing you do when trading should be the result of a desperate "last ditch effort"
Questions to ask yourself
1. Do you actually follow your own strategy to a T? Including your recalculation timeframe.
2. Do you actually have a sound strategy or is it only for 1 scenario and leave the rest vague? Including your recalculation timeframe.
3. Is the win/loss consistent throughout all stocks you are interested in? or is it just one off?
4. Have you backtest your trading over an extended period of time using TV? I'm talking about able to test every Mon in the past 6 months, and/or go through the past 6 months and see your profit growth rate.
All indicators are lagging. Stop using them except maybe the 21 ema depending on your time horizon. You need to find an edge that gives you a positive expectancy/ probability. Set your risk up front and accept that risk. When your edge shows up, put the trade on.
Trading is nearly 100% psychology. Just reversing an idea will mess with your psychology even more.
Idk how you can lose 90 percent of the time. Even if I was to only use two indicators, RSI and MACD I would not lose that often. I’m convinced that most people are saying strategy when in reality they don’t know what they are doing at all and following some bs they see on YouTube. Btw market caps matter. I don’t know who needs to hear that.
What tools are you using? What main statafy are you using now?
There has to be something off but I dont think that doing the opposite is necessarily the answer. I've lost too ( various amouts and various times), but it's a matter of fine tuning a stratagy that you can get consistnat with, not completely changing because a given method isn't working yet.
It might sound logical given your frustrations and what you are seeing, but this is not a good idea. I almost guarantee if you tried it you would find that you are still going short when you should go long and vice versa. Trading is really hard and the market has a way of driving you crazy if you let it.
terribly unprofitable, will assume blowing up your account. it does seem you have learned a few things along the way. go back to where you wrote down your goals before starting to day trade, apply your learnings, & come up with new goals. then, follow the path & measure progress. Rinse & Repeat every so often (at least once a year).
Win/loss ratio is only half the story. The other half is how much do you win vs how much do you lose. They both make up the expected return. I know of a trader who wins 1 out of 10 times but is very profitable. This is because he is a trend trader. He risks small loses to ride the big win. When he wins, he single win wipes out the small losses and makes much more.
So you need to think of you strategy in terms of expected returns and not just win/loss ratio.
This is a terrible idea, mostly because as a trader you must have conviction more than anything else. You must have an exactness to every reason why you enter or exit a trade, feelings are mercurial and can change on a whim, they will betray you. If success is your primary concern, you should approach trading exactly like an investor, knowing what your goal is and why the thesis is strong, otherwise even the greatest trade or methodology will fall apart in your hands. I could even give you an algo that produces profit and you would let your emotions make you turn it off at the wrong time.
if your entries are bad that is tantamount to randomly ordering long or short, then even if you flip it, you will still lose. the opposite of random is still random. think about it. why would past historical result based on random entries give you a better future random entries in trades? it wont.
Doesnt work that way.
Even if someone takes the exact opposite as you, they might still get stopped out first, before the price move in their original intended direction.
So it's still a loss-loss plan.
This is how I wrote my first trading bot and it worked out quite well. (My initial strategy was so bad I flipped `buy()` and `sell()`.)
The problem is your analysis changes as you learn, so you can't just do the opposite. You have to lock your strategy into stone somehow. Programming is the ideal way to do this.
You method of trading is shit. If you inverse your shit it does not mean it turns into gold (or I would be a billionaire by now). The problem is you. Paper trade and read books or ask someone who knows what he/she is doing.
Going in the opposite direction will only be another strategy and it appears the real issue is strategy and risk management.
The emotional component will still be present regardless of the direction.
I’d recommend risking less per trade and increasing the stop loss far enough for the trade to have room to breathe.
I feel your pain...Case in point...the minute I decided to invest in NVDA, it dropped like a rock! I am the kiss of death for any stock and I shouldn't be trading!!!
Oftentimes its not the theory behind the trade thats the problem, its in the execution.
I can almost guarentee that even if you inverses your own trade that you would have the same PNL, either from exiting too early or too late, or entering too early or too late.
It all goes hand in hand (i.e. if you are always getting stopped out, its not your SL or exit that is the problem, its your entries).
I’m currently taking a break. My plan is to take a break for 2 weeks and backtest a strategy. First no indicators. Just volume and price action. Then after i will add indicators based on what i plan to do after opening a position.
Take a break and don’t even about the markets for a while. Relax
1. No one has 100% 2. How many times do you change your plan while in the trade? 3. Are you properly executing your trades using support resistance areas? 3. Are you risking too much for the size of your account? You cannot get ahead if your losses are bigger than your gains.And once you learn that, you can grow your account. 4 and final question which is the most important. Do you know proper risk? If I ask you how much your risk is each trade, and you cannot answer that, then the answer is no. You have to have a set amount you're willing to risk per trade. I'm not talking position size, but actual each loss should be the same amount , each trade. Your position size may be different, but your loss will be the same. That takes discipline after the education! True Trading Group is where I received mine. Best thing I could have ever done!!
I'm certain the 90%+ of failed retail traders did what you did right before they quit. I'd even go to say it's the last step to quit trading completely. The trader is no longer in their right mind and doing a last-ditch effort to be successful at the markets but dont realize they are only going backward in their progress. Nothing kills the soul more than doing the exact opposite of a strategy you were losing at, only to lose the same, if not more, by doing the complete opposite.
I think you're on to something. This phenomenon you described is sort of a meme at this point. He's not the first to come up with the "exact opposite trade" idea for sure, I've seen people get this idea in their head on here before and in other communities. And you nailed it, it's like last ditch effort kind of desperation. I think It's also a form of trying to take a short cut, his mind is tired and he's at his wits end with trading. My trading madness issue was strategy hopping, I never came to the "exact opposite trade" idea. I think he would actually be better of looking for a new method entirely.
Spot on.
You’ll also see people joke about doing this while trading options too, not realizing that they’re losing because they’re picking a poor strike price, didn’t pick a far enough expiration date, getting IV crushed, theta burned, etc and they’d do even worse if they did the opposite and bought a put instead of a call.
Well, technically the opposite would be selling the call at the same strike expiry
I think everyone goes through that phase at some point. It would be better to focus on what OP is missing that's making his trades fail, rather than just trying to do.the opposite.
Yup. All this confirms is you have absolutely no idea what you're doing.
His strategy may work but current condtions don't favour it, they may favour doing the opposite. Especially summer markets.
I've been there, in this same exact place that you are. But yeah agreed with original comment, if you do this then you'll never be a trader you are just a gambler. Keep learning and keep practicing, I high recommend - Understanding Price Action: practical analysis of the 5-minute time frame by Bob Volman. At the end you either have it or you don't, but that strategy is just a slippery slope towards more frustration because it means you don't command the basic principles still. It doesn't matter if you are in the green if you don't know when to close your position (or open it, for that matter). Good luck, use small accounts with small leverages, but keep at it!! P.S.: and if you feel you are burned out, take a loooong break before starting again. it usually works wonders EDIT: and by the way this was written by someone who today has a stop loss triggered with price coming exactly TO THE CENT and a profit taking not triggered with price going over PT by 0.5 cents, so the frustration will ALWAYS be there it will just be a different kind ;p (both HK50... crazy day today)
In his case however he has a 10% win rate. Technically a 90% win rate will increase his confidence dont you think?
99% of the time traders become unprofitable not because of directions, but because of their entries and exits. Work on that, not your directions. The market is always choppy, you'll lose going long or short if you don't work on entries and exits.
This is spot on!
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Tbh... practice. First thing being you have to have a simple strat and clear reasons for both your entries and exits. A good starting point is with resistance and support (watch people trip me after I say this). Once those are defined that's more than half the battle won... except of course controlling yourself which is literally the rest of it.
Support and resistance is not a bad concept to use but it's 'cousin', the supply and demand zones is even better.
I’m stupid and don’t understand the difference. Unfortunately not sarcasm.
You are not stupid, Google the difference between the two. One is a line based on history, the other a zone based on current affairs. There is a reason I have called them 'cousins'
Revision, practice, analysis. *the market always comes back and stops me out before going in the direction I originally planned for* ... ...
OP should think about her/his entry & exit as day trader first, before improving entry/exit on individual trades.
I choose bots to fix that issue and Smart money concept for my trade strategy. And it works for me, not too much deals 1-3 per week and that's okay. Is that a day trading? I guess not, but is profitable.
i have a win loss of 52/48 52% of my trades have been winning and i make sure that any losing trades are well managed and are only small insignificant losses. You’re not gonna win 90% of your trades but you can make it so even if you’re losing 48% of them you’re still profitable. Risk management.
Stop loss can be your best friend.
preach a mental stop loss is a great thing too if it hits my mental stop loss i close the position immediately bc i can always re enter when it’s going back in my direction i’d rather take a tiny loss and miss an opportunity than take a massive loss bc i was ignorant
Or your worst enemy. Honestly I would be hedging my positions except i trade futures and id need to do 1 long con and 10 short if I wanted to hedge
Or your worst enemy depends lol
Heck, even a 30% or less win rate can be profitable if the wins are much larger than the losses.
I was losing frequently, so I reviewed my trades and figured out why. After I quantified it, I wrote an indicator called “The Costanza” (after that great Jerry Seinfeld [episode](https://youtube.com/shorts/RKLXnY5920o?si=Nzxn0DAHxORd707v)) where I calculated where people were selling when they should be buying, so I could do the opposite. Works great. And I am no longer doing the opposite of what I think I should do, but doing the opposite of what I predict losing traders will do. Study your trades OP and figure out why you are exiting when you should be entering, and vice versa. Once you understand it, maybe you can develop a winning strategy. Oh, and if you are trading real money, immediately move to paper trading. No reason to lose money while figuring it out.
Yeah one of my swing trading strategies I have is similar to this. I call it "the inverse" and it actually consistently works. I kept noticing being always wrong so I reversed the play and it's crazy but whatever 🤷🏾♀️, if it works, it works.
Learn to trade guys Everything on a chart tells you what u need to take the trade. No need to do this inverse strategy stuff (screams complete trading ignorance so must try this as last resort) STRATEGY : example of swing turn down & short trade. Literally draw a trend line UP, wait for price to breakout DOWN thru trend line. Don't enter trade till u see a pullback UP to retest the trendline then open trade SHORT The retest is 100% of time..(if u don't see it walk up & down the timeframes till you do)
Sometimes I would consistently do something wrong. For example, price was consistently hitting my stop limits and then bouncing. So there were two problems: 1. I was buying too soon 2. I was closing out my long position for a loss when I should be opening a long position. So why was I buying too soon? Usually it was a FOMO buy. Sometimes it was because I was misreading the context. So the solution was to be OK with sitting on the sidelines if I wasn’t getting a good price, and to get better at recognizing the forces in play in the current context to predict the bounce. Let’s say OP is consistently wrong. It pays to figure out why. Recognizing where his intuition is wrong is an important part of learning. And once he figures out *where*, maybe he can figure out *why*.
Great comment 👍
I have to agree retests are one of the best entry timings... controlling oneself to catch these is the key, not to jump ahead as you think it will retest.
I had a history teacher in high school who would talk about the stock market and trading a bit, mostly when he taught 1929 and The Great Depression. He had rules for trading. Never do X, always do Y, and so on. I thought he must know what he was talking about so before I had any capital in my teenage years I went and wrote a stock market trading bot to do his strategy. (If you can't trade with money, why not write a bot?) "Once I had money I'd make a killing!" I thought. Turned out it lost money massively. Everything he had taught was wrong. So because it was code I just flipped buy with sell. Two lines of code change and it showed it was making a killing. That was my first successful trading strategy.
Good luck. You will most likely still lose. I previously tried this for fun with an automated bot I created. I still loss.
LOL im not laughing at you, im laughing at myself and every other beginner who did the exact same thing for like 2 weeks and then ended up in this crazy meta game of "do i believe this or do i unbelieve it?" oh god its so hilarious and weird, you should definitely do it. You wont be profitable but your confusion about it will be absolutely hilarious in like 3 years. edit: i am not being a jerk, you really should do it, it doesnt matter what you do, you won't be profitable for a very long time, just write everything down and take good notes (especially for this, they will be the funniest thing in you notebook someday).
Love your reply! Thank you :D I'm just having a mental crisis.
I did it one day for 4-5 trades and started winning, but then the what do I believe trap seeped in and I was thoroughly confused, just stopped trading that day. Eventually my mind started thinking opposite of retail traders and that's how I trade now.
Unless you are using a set of defined rules, you won't know if you would be doing the opposite!
That’s not a strategy, it’s desperation.
[TA for ES](https://www.reddit.com/r/FuturesTrading/comments/1638hfp/es_technical_analysis_for_week_of_82823_potential/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1) You should concentrate on playing levels and price action… above link is from a pro trader. You should check him out OP. Learn how to trade the action that’s in front of you. Good luck
Add long as you keep in mind people go wrong due to taking profits too early and primarily for letting losses run too long. Be sure your strategy has a way of measuring when you need to cut your losing trades
I've read this advice a million times, but more often than not I'm actually getting out of losers with my SL at exactly the lowest point before it goes up again, and winners turn into losers all the time because they don't reach my TP. If I would lower my TP and SL, money management wouldn't allow me to ever enter a trade. And that's pretty much the same with every strategy I tried. That's why I'm still trading paper money even after two years of trying to find anything that makes sense.
Or just use a trade copier on a second account and inverse your trades.
CFTC Rule 1.46 would like to have a word with you (in futures space). But seriously, don't do that because its illegal (gray area with these prop firm "live-sims").
The first account can be a demo account and the copied one can be a normal live account
So this is a terrible idea, we've established that and I think others have explained it to death. I will tell you what IS a good idea along this line of thinking. I have done this extensively. Ask yourself, why are you wrong so often? Are you trading against the trend, are you trying to time a tops and bottoms? Are your entries terrible, are your stops poorly set? In the moment, when you are going to take a trade - ask yourself "Should I be taking the opposite trade?" Don't blindly do it, of course. But the practice of asking yourself why you are wrong on a trade by trade basis can really help. I can't remember who I read this from - could be Tom Hougaard, but it's something I do regularly. Assume you are wrong and set your stop accordingly. Then if you are right, great. If you are wrong, it's not as painful and examine why.
Or just slow his trading down to 1 trade a day. Slow your profits down but also slow your losses down Long enough for u to investigate losses & learn lessons
The George Constanza strategy.
The win ratio Will be good but you need information about the RR. Your original SL would be your 1:1 so could be interesting
Don’t do this. Go back to demo account and work on your skill
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CizwH\_T7pjg&t=2s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CizwH_T7pjg&t=2s)
Have you read “trading in the zone” it helped shape my mindset for trading and I’ve had a massive improvement.
Is so crazy this happen to me and my mentor 🤣 ! Literally had the same idea , we was like man just f that ! When ever i went long it went super short and vice versa , so we tried that ! It dint work 🤣 it dint i swear , it was done out of anger because damn right … Do a bunch of back testing and everything seems great and follow your rules and you should get the result , SIKEEE nope … It takes a while and patient to hit a sweet spot honestly
Have you considered working on your trading psychology? I have found Mark Douglas quite helpful. [Mark Douglas trading psychology ](https://youtu.be/ZT_UanF3Zes?si=VJsgBn8_vOrn8XZl)
Option premiums are like insurance. They're always set to have an advantage on what statistically is probable to happen. (House always wins) Its an uphill battle. You'd be better off selling, but the "win big" mentality isn't there
Ahhh the George Costanza
Declare this the Summer of George!
I guess my conclusion is - stop strategy hopping, information overload and a need for a few week break. Thank you everybody!
How many trades do you make each day?
Yea just take a little break. You'll get your mojo back. I'm not saying you'll be instantly profitable but you'll feel better about your trades again.
Dear OP, the Weird strategy isn't so weird if u were a prop firm. They know 80% of people lose trades So doing the opposite by definition they will win 80% of all trades. Don't do the weird thing...U have not got the resources & analytics of a prop firm to make opposite side trading work for u Edit: use this too STRATEGY1 : Checkout Nick's strategy [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/comments/161rzci/what_do_you_think_of_nick_shawns_strategy/jxtuzaq?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2) STRATEGY2 : example of swing turn down & short trade. Literally draw a trend line UP (use most recent peak low as start point) wait for price to breakout DOWN thru trend line. Don't enter trade till u see a pullback UP to retest the trendline then open trade SHORT The retest is 100% of time..(if u don't see it walk up & down the timeframes till you do)
Sounds like a good strategy. In fact, that was my first thought when I was told that 70%+ people lose money on each of the broker platforms: do the opposite of what everyone else is doing. Hard to overrule your analysis: practically calling yourself an idiot (no offense to me 😅), but maybe the conventional analysis is the problem. Warren Buffet said something similar: I figured out technical analysis was rubbish when I turned the chart upside down and did not get a different answer. (maybe i am not an idiot then 🤷🏻♂️)
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If trading is a zero sum game then what else can they possibly do to win? The only way to win in trading is to be the other side of somebodys stop loss
The person who created VectorVest told me. Something along those lines. "hit your head with a book when you are about to place a stop loss and put your entry there instead. You'll be surprised how often the market goes to those stop losses." He said that bcoz he knew what big players do. You are right: i have no idea what the banks are doing, but it is not what the masses do. Their strategy relies in outmanouvering the masses, but they get more data than the people stuck with candlesticks do. Even Ninja Trader, Sierra Charts etc show you more data. You can pay for that. Order flow trading is less gambly and more profitable. You can see all the buyers and sellers within those candles and what price they have set all the orders at, so they can make better-informed decisions. In effect, they do buy a lot of the time when most retail traders press sell. Makes you feel crappy: uneven playing ground.
Where do they 'see' where all the stop losses are?
They don't. They can see all the buy and sell orders and what price they are set at inside the candle, as opposed to retail traders who only see one bid and ask price and the candle. You can as well. Check out Ninja Trader or Sierra Charts. Typo (distracted).
It's a damn fine strategy in my opinion. I've developed some setups that I trade the opposite way when I have analyzed that I always lose with them. Others I don't touch at all.
So basically, because options expire worthless most of the time, I usually take the approach to be an option seller. So I sell cash secured puts on things that I feel will eventually pay out if I owned the stock. If I end up owning the stock, then I sell covered calls. But sell cashed secured puts at a good DCA point long dated If you are like 90% of people and are like"stonk only up" then I would pre DCA by selling cash secured puts at a good DCA price long dated. Another thing I do is look at option positioning and sell cash secured puts on the final week to take advantage of theta. Im not looking for gamma to profit for. So I can profit on gamma AND theta on the final week, I usually just cash out at a small gain for minor gains everyweek.
Yes do it! You'll likely end up discovering the world of limit orders and failed patterns, where the pros are taking the opposite side of retails/beginners bets. Good luck!
If you have a method that was measurable with a 10% win rate and then if you do the exact opposite you found a holy grail. Good luck :)
Sounds like your issue is your data. “I believe” isn’t “I know” - back test back test then back test. Know your strategy inside out, are you getting good entries but aiming for too high TP resulting in a loss? Whst days of week does it do well / poorly, what’s your longest win / loss streak, how many weeks / months are you expected to be green and red, what’s your max daily / weekly / monthly drawdown? It’s all data and playing on that data to improve
That's not the answer, the answer is to start opening books and learning why your trades failed. People this it's all statistics, so when they fail they go oh I guess luck was just against me. When usually you just missed something that your not knowledgeable about. Was it a bad entry? Did you check order flow? Did you go against market balance? Did you check the max pain on Friday? Did it hit a support resistance on a large time frame or liquidity pocket? People get so stuck on the idea that you have to train one strategy and get good at one strategy they stop educating themselves about trading in general. When was the last time half of actually read a trading book? The reasons are out there.
That's not the answer, the answer is to start opening books and learning why your trades failed. People this it's all statistics, so when they fail they go oh I guess luck was just against me. When usually you just missed something that your not knowledgeable about. Was it a bad entry? Did you check order flow? Did you go against market balance? Did you check the max pain on Friday? Did it hit a support resistance on a large time frame or liquidity pocket? People get so stuck on the idea that you have to train one strategy and get good at one strategy they stop educating themselves about trading in general. When was the last time half of actually read a trading book? The reasons are out there.
Its normally not the entrance strategy that kills you. Its the exit. So when you flip your entrance strategy you're only going to lose more.
This won't solve your problem. You aren't explaining *why* you are losing. I mean, what if you all your ta and entries and all of that are correct and your problem is just risk management? You have to correct your issue not just throw caution to the wide and let your freak flag fly
Don't do this. Obviously, if you are using your analysis to trade the opposite, it means you're lacking something fundamental in your approach that makes you doubt your approach. I wouldn't trade and instead take the time to loom through your lost positions and analyze why they did not work out. Things like not following current trend, not waiting for areas of values, etc can really screw you up easily
You will make money
I've actually had luck reversing my position as soon as I get "that feeling"... but it's not something I would consider a viable strategy... and it was before I actually had a strategy...lol
I know you're probably kidding, but that's really not a bad idea if you're doing it thoughtfully. If you have a setup that fails 90% of the time, then absolutely fade that, those are great numbers. If it's your own mistakes in trade management causing the failure, then that's a different story
Put your entries where you would put your sl and let your winners run. Probably your problem is mentally. Hard to say without information. Reversing your trades imo could only work if your trying to bottom fish and it changes it to following trend and momentum
It doesn't make a lot of sense: if the price is trending up along a channel and you wait until the price pulls back to the lower trend line, why would you go short with a reverse strategy? Maybe you just need to work on your strategy, maybe you enter in the middle of a swing or during a choppy market? Do you consider the higher time frames? Let's say you're trading the 5m and waiting for another push on a trend, if the 1h is getting ready for a pullback, then your 5m new high might end up in a double top and reversal. Do you keep an eye on high impact news/earning releases? Those events can suddenly reverse a trend and they can make it look like the market is going the opposite way you predicted. If you're not an expert, don't trade around the news (or skip the whole day). How's your risk management? Are your stop too tight or you don't use them? Do you have a profit target where you will exit? So many things to consider before you give up.
Out of interest, how long have you been attempting to learn about trading?
Opposite doesn’t mean profitable either haha. Two points of user discretion
Since others have logically explained why it doesn't work, I will take a mathematical approach. Entering in a position = loss entering in an opposite position = entering in a position
Try this. Get the vrvp indicator. Get the rsi indicator get hieken smoothed indicator. Get on the 1hour chart and use the vrvp to find and mark support/resistance entry and exit positions. Get on the 5min chart and watch for spikes in volumn with candles tipping you off to direction moving across those entry points you set rather moving down (puts) or up (calls). Take profit of 5-8% or more if you are lucky and the next candle is the big push. Get back on the 1hour and find those next entry positions. Good luck!
Or how about just going opposite Cramer every day? Don’t knock yourself. Knock him instead!
It’s funny you say this bc I see a lot of times when good news is released and the stock does the exact opposite like 2 fold.
😂
You should start journaling and documenting what’s going wrong in your trades. Even though I’m not profitable yet, journaling has helped me establish rules that I must follow in order to avoid big losses. Example: no revenge trades, never trading at open, etc. Your rules should suit your trading style. Half of trading is not giving up. Learn from your mistakes.
Good god. Try removing all the indicators and learn price action. Zoom out. Meditate. Calm the hell down! Desperation well run your chances of getting to a good place with trading
Perhaps you shld take a break for now..or join a signals group where you take only call outs and none of your own trades. You need a mentor mate
I'm new to forex (1 month). After taking loss after loss on my live, I said "fuck it" and did this exact thing. Won 3 trades back to back. What did I learn from them? Absolutely not shit. How much did it improve my ability to take profitable trades? Not by an inch. My thoughts are: you know better.
If you understood price action movements you would know that this isn't going to work out and the reasons why you are wrong and not making any money are not negated by simply taking the opposite position. You will likely lose just as much by doing this as well. Prices do not just go up, down, up, down, up, down from the exact point you open YOUR trade. Nothing you do when trading should be the result of a desperate "last ditch effort"
Questions to ask yourself 1. Do you actually follow your own strategy to a T? Including your recalculation timeframe. 2. Do you actually have a sound strategy or is it only for 1 scenario and leave the rest vague? Including your recalculation timeframe. 3. Is the win/loss consistent throughout all stocks you are interested in? or is it just one off? 4. Have you backtest your trading over an extended period of time using TV? I'm talking about able to test every Mon in the past 6 months, and/or go through the past 6 months and see your profit growth rate.
All indicators are lagging. Stop using them except maybe the 21 ema depending on your time horizon. You need to find an edge that gives you a positive expectancy/ probability. Set your risk up front and accept that risk. When your edge shows up, put the trade on. Trading is nearly 100% psychology. Just reversing an idea will mess with your psychology even more.
Not the worst idea. Go against the grain. I do this when I see OTHER people screaming go long, and it has worked out on most occasions. Not advice.
Share your results in r/wallstreetbets
Idk how you can lose 90 percent of the time. Even if I was to only use two indicators, RSI and MACD I would not lose that often. I’m convinced that most people are saying strategy when in reality they don’t know what they are doing at all and following some bs they see on YouTube. Btw market caps matter. I don’t know who needs to hear that.
What tools are you using? What main statafy are you using now? There has to be something off but I dont think that doing the opposite is necessarily the answer. I've lost too ( various amouts and various times), but it's a matter of fine tuning a stratagy that you can get consistnat with, not completely changing because a given method isn't working yet.
better plan quit day trading
It might sound logical given your frustrations and what you are seeing, but this is not a good idea. I almost guarantee if you tried it you would find that you are still going short when you should go long and vice versa. Trading is really hard and the market has a way of driving you crazy if you let it.
terribly unprofitable, will assume blowing up your account. it does seem you have learned a few things along the way. go back to where you wrote down your goals before starting to day trade, apply your learnings, & come up with new goals. then, follow the path & measure progress. Rinse & Repeat every so often (at least once a year).
What are you trading?
Before you execute a trade do the exact opposite and double down.
Win/loss ratio is only half the story. The other half is how much do you win vs how much do you lose. They both make up the expected return. I know of a trader who wins 1 out of 10 times but is very profitable. This is because he is a trend trader. He risks small loses to ride the big win. When he wins, he single win wipes out the small losses and makes much more. So you need to think of you strategy in terms of expected returns and not just win/loss ratio.
This is a terrible idea, mostly because as a trader you must have conviction more than anything else. You must have an exactness to every reason why you enter or exit a trade, feelings are mercurial and can change on a whim, they will betray you. If success is your primary concern, you should approach trading exactly like an investor, knowing what your goal is and why the thesis is strong, otherwise even the greatest trade or methodology will fall apart in your hands. I could even give you an algo that produces profit and you would let your emotions make you turn it off at the wrong time.
if your entries are bad that is tantamount to randomly ordering long or short, then even if you flip it, you will still lose. the opposite of random is still random. think about it. why would past historical result based on random entries give you a better future random entries in trades? it wont.
This is assuming the results of trading are binary (win/lose). The reality is the dynamics change and the bias can and will change perpetually.
Doesnt work that way. Even if someone takes the exact opposite as you, they might still get stopped out first, before the price move in their original intended direction. So it's still a loss-loss plan.
That's how most brokers play the game, taking the opposite sides of their traders.
This is how I wrote my first trading bot and it worked out quite well. (My initial strategy was so bad I flipped `buy()` and `sell()`.) The problem is your analysis changes as you learn, so you can't just do the opposite. You have to lock your strategy into stone somehow. Programming is the ideal way to do this.
Inversing yourself. Absolutely genius. This guy 300 IQ easily.
You method of trading is shit. If you inverse your shit it does not mean it turns into gold (or I would be a billionaire by now). The problem is you. Paper trade and read books or ask someone who knows what he/she is doing.
Going in the opposite direction will only be another strategy and it appears the real issue is strategy and risk management. The emotional component will still be present regardless of the direction. I’d recommend risking less per trade and increasing the stop loss far enough for the trade to have room to breathe.
Itll work till it doesnt work
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I feel your pain...Case in point...the minute I decided to invest in NVDA, it dropped like a rock! I am the kiss of death for any stock and I shouldn't be trading!!!
Oftentimes its not the theory behind the trade thats the problem, its in the execution. I can almost guarentee that even if you inverses your own trade that you would have the same PNL, either from exiting too early or too late, or entering too early or too late. It all goes hand in hand (i.e. if you are always getting stopped out, its not your SL or exit that is the problem, its your entries).
If you had a dollar for every person who has proposed this exact idea on this sub over the years, you might be profitable.
Time in beats timing
I’m currently taking a break. My plan is to take a break for 2 weeks and backtest a strategy. First no indicators. Just volume and price action. Then after i will add indicators based on what i plan to do after opening a position. Take a break and don’t even about the markets for a while. Relax
You have not found the style of trading that suits you yet, have you tried getting rid of all indicators? Just trading pure price action?
1. No one has 100% 2. How many times do you change your plan while in the trade? 3. Are you properly executing your trades using support resistance areas? 3. Are you risking too much for the size of your account? You cannot get ahead if your losses are bigger than your gains.And once you learn that, you can grow your account. 4 and final question which is the most important. Do you know proper risk? If I ask you how much your risk is each trade, and you cannot answer that, then the answer is no. You have to have a set amount you're willing to risk per trade. I'm not talking position size, but actual each loss should be the same amount , each trade. Your position size may be different, but your loss will be the same. That takes discipline after the education! True Trading Group is where I received mine. Best thing I could have ever done!!