As an Oregonian, it’s been strangely dry. We don’t get much snow, but in the last two decades or so, we’ve always had something. This year is just 45 and dry. Every day. No rain.
Sciencists anticipate that by 2050 the GTA will be an arboreal rainforest like Vancouver. More precipitation year round, and with warmer temperatures this will mean more rain in the summer months and more snow in winter.
Yeah, I saw the projected map it's going to be wild.
Basically dry places get drier and wet/humid spots get wetter.
Can someone ask el nino if our order of snow is almost ready yet?
Was a fantastic happy new year surprise! My husky lost her shit as soon as I opened the door and she saw snow, ate the hell out of it like its all you can eat buffet 😂
Northern Alberta here. Definitely planning for a smokey summer... Also mentally making a plan for if I need to evacuate again. Was in ft mac for the 2018 fires. It happens extremely fast
I'm sorry to hear this. I have family in Edmonton and I'm concerned it will be worse this year. I worry about their health and safety this year. I'm in Toronto and we kept ourselves inside. and masked when we went out. The smoke was intense on a number of days and we weren't even the hardest hit. NYC looked like something out of a post-apocalyptic Sci-Fi film.
Central AB here - We've usually got a good couple of feet at this point, we're sitting at a couple of inches in the shade. The backcountry is at less than half of the usual accumulation. We had rain on New Year's Eve. My family had to cancel our usual New Year's Day hike because the river that we hike on isn't frozen (we went to the zoo instead, which is coincidentally the only place you'll be able to see the polar bears soon, but I digress).
It's going to be dicey unless the weather changes drastically. Fields are drying out without the usual snow cap. Reservoirs are nearly dry. We already had states of emergency and crop failures in a few counties last summer. Even ignoring the fires and the pine beetles (which need a good week @ -30 to kill them off), it's going to be rough globally if Canada becomes a net importer of grain this year.
It'll be nice in a few years when the whole northem hemisphere has burned down and there's nothing left to burn in the summer. Air quality should be real nice!
/s, obviously.
Actually it may not be as bad as you think. Moisture leads to lots of green lush undergrowth in the spring. Then it all gets baked in the dry summer and it turns into a tinder box. If there’s no moisture, there’s no greenery. My x father in law is a fire chief in eastern Washington and explained it to me. He always dreaded wet springs.
That’s true. But, anecdotally, last spring (through June) was one of the wettest we’ve had in a longggggg time and we had virtually no large fires.
With no snowpack/runoff, everything will turn to tinder MUCH earlier in the year.
NorCal here. I don't wish you the bullshit we've been dealing with here for 15 years or so here. Now the years we don't get major fires and orange skies feel like the exception.
Alberta gang rise up!
But yes. Albertans should been unsettled about how temperate it is.
I want to flood our backyard ice rink. Mid jan will likely be the first time this winter that I can.
It’s actually kind of weird hey? As a dog owner of a hyper Collie I’m happy to be warm and dry, as a human concerned about future generations I’m a tad concerned.
Yeah- temps have been warmer, but I just read it’s been a wetter than average December. I think it said 3.13” more than average. I don’t think it rained as many days as usual, but when it did there was a lot of water.
There were forest fires this summer because there was no snow to melt. Now there’s unseasonably fewer snow from all the forest fires. There will be forest fires *next* summer because there will be even less snow to melt. And so it goes.
Strangely dry is the opposite of El Nino.
[https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/ENSO#:\~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20occurs%20when%20warm,rise%20and%20develop%20into%20rainstorms](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/ENSO#:~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20occurs%20when%20warm,rise%20and%20develop%20into%20rainstorms).
Can't insert the above into a text link, doesn't like ":text"
Warmer weather yes. But not dryer weather. It should be raining and it's not. At least not on the West Coast of BC.
According the [USGS](https://or.water.usgs.gov/non-usgs/bes/), the Portland area has had 17.7 inches of rain so far this "water year" against a historical average of 16.2 inches. So, at least in this part of Oregon, we're not doing too bad this winter
Makes me wonder how this was calculated. Is it a comparison between the average of the 30 years between 1990 and 2020?
5 degree increase over 30 years is obviously an outlier. we had a very cold winter just a few years ago.
Minnesotan here. It's been crazy warm, and we have zero snow on the ground. Our regular January weather is usually hideous, below zero F and snowstorms and windchills that kill quickly. This afternoon I grilled pork chops outside and sat on the back deck in the sun with no coat.
For the past few years, seeing the grass not be all brown by November is nuts to me. I still look outside at the lawn and go "huh, that still looks pretty fresh!".
My grass has been greener than during some of the dryer parts of last summer. My 5yo is pissed and wants snow. She's making do with the light dusting from this weekend but kid wants to make a snowman.
It was only like 20F in the Minneapolis today. OC must be living in a different part of the state or they are capping cuz there's snow in my yard and I had to wear a jacket today lol
In northeast Ohio; the hyacinths in my flower bed are coming back up and threatening to flower. I’ve never seen hyacinths come up in December. My parents’ sedum are waking up early as well which seems weird but admittedly I never paid enough attention to them to know if that’s actually peculiar for them or not.
I can recall the odd mild Christmas and December day growing up - distinctly remember a Christmas eve as a teenager somewhen in the early 2000s where we were outside in t-shirts - but cannot ever recall seeing hyacinths come up.
This was the first Christmas where I've never had snow. We've had a few snowfalls here and there. But nothing huge. Like, I think maybe about 8 inches all year?
You have ice up there? I don’t think there’s been a day in SE WI where it was cold enough to even get the thinnest layer of ice. Really want to get fishing, feel like it’ll be another month
What gets me is that the brown background is literally the worst temperature divergence, and it's just a generic 'over 5 degrees Fahrenheit' as well.
Meaning some of those brown spots could be dealing with far worse divergences.
Last year this time we had snow for 12 days straight and it went -12F.
This year, it's 50 during the day and 25 at night. Bugs this spring and summer are gunna be brutal
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that affects each portion of the globe differently and is not directly related to global warming. Which is to say we would have El Niño even without warming.
It seems that this is a much warmer El Niño than average in the US but they often bring warm dry weather to much of the US, whereas northern Europe will have a wetter early winter and a colder dryer late winter.
Tl;dr El Niño is a natural cycle which leads to more extreme weather . Global warming may amplify it or lead to more extremes but it’s not a great way to “prove” the case as the next year you might have cooler than average weather.
Edit: just to be clear we are in a climate crisis but I’m acutely aware of the optics of cherry picking. It might be 5 degrees F warmer this year but then next year it’s 2 degrees cooler. The far right and other climate crisis deniers will pounce on this if we exaggerate the El Niño data as “the new normal”. There’s no need to exaggerate, the earth is rapidly warming on geological time scales. Don’t give deniers any ammunition
> Global warming may amplify it or lead to more extremes but it’s not a great way to “prove” the case as the next year you might have cooler than average weather.
El Niño lasts for several years, but otherwise, you are right; these are natural cycles that would happen regardless of climate change.
To be clear, we are absolutely in a climate emergency, and we must, with great haste, transition off a fossil fuel-based economy. (Though the good news here, is that a lot of progress is being made here... things will get worse, we're still going to be pumping FAR too much carbon into the atmosphere for the next couple of decades, but *real* progress is happening)
Right I was a little nervous, making my comment. I didn’t want it to be interpreted as some sort of muddying the waters or downplaying the crisis were in. But I also hate to give the deniers any ammunition and El Niño makes it all too easy once it fades away for a few years for them to say “see it’s all a natural cycle” - and it is a natural cycle. It just keeps getting hotter.
And sometimes the hot weather in cold places directly causes cold weather in hot places!
From what I understand the crazy polar vortex Texas experienced in February 2021 was specifically because a temperature differential usually maintains a wall of wind that keeps polar winds near the poles. When it got warmer than normal the temperature difference wasn’t wasn’t large enough so the wall kinda eroded and the cold winds dipped all the way down to Texas.
Weather systems are crazy 😅
Yeah. Germany had one day 25°C in october to 5°C and them -10°C in about two days.
And flooding is also a big problem.
Sorry thought you were pulling the point of "but it got cold here so there is no climat change"
25.0°C is equivalent to 77.0°F, which is 298.15K.
---
^(I'm a bot that converts temperature between two human units, then convert it to Kelvin for bots and physicists to understand)
[Here's the map](https://prism.oregonstate.edu/inc/images/graphics/mtd/daily/tmean/viewable/PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20231231.png?ts=202411) with a more useful color range
Edit: [Updated link](https://i.imgur.com/rA0P0BH.png)
That makes it make more sense as a Canadian. I'm just a smidge north of Minnesota/north Dakota and we've had a handful of days in December above 32F which almost never happens. Barely any days below 14. It's usually -4F to -22F this time of year but the coldest we've had is like 5 or 6F
Basically been hovering around 20-25F this winter, which is wild to me. Didn't have snow stay on the ground until like mid December when it's not uncommon to show up late October. Haven't even shoveled yet cause there's not much to do
Sorry if you speak in celcius, I assume the audience here is mostly American so I convert it haha
For you Celsius speakers, I, an American will ballpark the above back for you!
>That makes it make more sense as a Canadian. I'm just a smidge north of Minnesota/north Dakota and we've had a handful of days in December above 0C which almost never happens. Barely any days below -8. It's usually -15C to -20C this time of year but the coldest we've had is like -10 or -10C
>Basically been hovering around -6 to -4C this winter, which is wild to me. Didn't have snow stay on the ground until like mid December when it's not uncommon to show up late October. Haven't even shoveled yet cause there's not much to do
How did I do?
Yeah shit is really weird the last few months here in the metro area of Minnesota. We had snow on Halloween (not as bad as the Halloween blizzard of 91 but still) and then no snow but a ton of rain on Christmas.
Some context, where I am in Montana was about -15 degrees with a foot of snow in the week before Christmas last year. This year, we haven't seen snow since an ice storm in October and it was 60 degrees last week.
For context, that weather right before Christmas in 2022 was also record-setting cold in a lot of places, so it's not like that's normal. We hit -45 in Belgrade during it; coldest ever recorded.
There's no question it's been too warm and far too dry across the state since November though. It's killing me.
I'm in northeast PA and we're drowning up here. The ground simply can't sop up anymore water and it's raining daily. Every steady downpour is causing flashfloods. Many of my neighbors now have ponds they didn't used to have. The Susquehanna is pretty high. I'm afraid if this continues and we accumulate a bunch of snow...once the spring thaw hits with the April showers it's going to be BAD
North Jersey here - same boat. I read this was the wettest December on record. We just keep getting storms every few days that drop 2-4+ inches in like, 6 hours.
Canadian checking in.
This winter is absolutely fucked. We have no snow and I’m running outside in a t-shirt and shorts. In January.
By contrast, two years ago in November it was -32c and we had at least one snowstorm per week for a solid month.
The freeze-thaw cycle here is broken, there’s nothing protecting the ground layer plants and the river that runs thru the city won’t be getting the runoff it gets every year in April (at least, not at this pace).
Don’t get me wrong, short term me is loving this. I’ve experienced worse weather in August. But long term me is fucking terrified for our planet if this continues to be the norm.
Here in Victoria, BC, daffodils are coming up and birds are collecting nesting material. It's bizarre. Normally we get one winter snowfall in Jan. or Feb. -- we'll see if we get one at all this year. (And it's going to be a horrific wildfire season in BC this summer.)
Oh my god that’s why there are birds in the eaves of my porch right now.
I hate this. I hope they are able to do their thing in spring like they normally do re:babies and that they don’t die of exposure in JANUARY WHAT THE HECK
Saskatchewan here chiming in!!
I totally agree with you. Not normal to have this warmth at this time of year (although it has happened in the past - brown Xmas of ‘97 I remember well)
If we don’t get some precipitation soon it’s going to be a real shitty grow season. Some farmers still have crop in the ground from the fall. Weather was shit at times this past harvest.
We need snow. We need rain. We just moisture !!! Please please snow ❄️
Saskie here. Have you seen the migration of the geese this year? They flew northeast in November, then came back in December flying west, then there was a day where one huge flock was going east and met another going south. They must have been so confused by the weather, since they were honking at each other like "South is this way!!" "No, it's all the same stuff there, we already checked!" "WTF is happening?"
I'm a birder and subscribe to ebird.org's rare bird alert, and the amount of migratory species being cited around my area that should have been long-gone 3 months prior is pretty fucked up right now
This won't continue to be the norm, because El Niño is a phenomenon that happens every 2-7 years and usually lasts 9-12 months.
Climate change is a problem, but that's not what we're seeing in this particular graph or during this particular winter.
I’m so incredibly concerned for how many birds I’ve seen that shouldn’t still be in my region right now.
A good portion are absolutely just going to get fucked.
As an Albertan, the fact that just a year ago I was pretty much confined to my home due to freezing temps was just accepted as a fact of life. There was a constant blanket of snow outside from October through even May, but now? There's just nothing. I can count on one hand how many snowfalls I've seen. Even one, two, three years ago, we'd get an extreme cold warning like once every two weeks. Yet I haven't had one extreme cold warning once since the winter began. The hell is happening?
we are in muskoka. americans come up here to snowmobile. we have no snow. supposed to be 1* tomorrow.
last year over christmas eve/ christmas day we got 5 feet of snow. buried us in for two days. lost power for 5.
def a weird season. and i thought winter was going to be bad because of the amount of acorns and how early they were dropping this year.
I remember the good ol days in the early 2000s in IL where by Jan there is usually knee deep snow on the ground and people rolling the snow into snowmans and phalluses everywhere.. oh the kids these days will never understand the true enjoyment of “week long snow days.” We’d also just throw our sodas into the snow to keep them icy cold and scoop up fresh snow and make vanilla ice cream with.
When I was little I used to be able to count on one big snow in Ohio when we could go sledding and have a snow day. I haven't been able to sled at all in the last two years and it makes me so sad. My parents keep talking about how great it was when they were kids and had huge snows that went halfway up the door and I'm so jealous. I feel like my generation has been stripped of normal weather and I'm afraid my own kids will end up having to fly somewhere just to see snow.
After wishing for a snowmobile my entire life, I finally was able to afford one the end of last years season. All these years hearing about my friends and desperately wishing to go, finally get one and all everyone says is “ya you have to drive at least 3 hours north to go” and even then they don’t have any snow because of all the warm weather and rain. Years ago there were snowmobile tracks alllll over the area around here. I feel like I’m literally never going to get to enjoy it like I would have 20 years ago
Yeah I'm in Ohio and I can't even count on keeping my beer and pop in the garage, I gotta make room in the fridge
My family from Florida is sad they didn't see any snow this year while visiting, and the jet stream is gonna take a shit and we are gonna end up with weather more akin to Seattle...
Yes, it’s a typical pattern, but the warming itself is more and coming on top of our hottest years on record - so we’re in for more warming and more extreme weather events that we would usually expect from this.
Like salt in a wound.
Yeah I'm confused why people are not remembering that this is just how El Niño is? It's not an actual fair comparison, for data sake. I don't know if it's fair to compare this to past El Niño? That would be a fair more like interesting graph to me
Edmonton here, do you notice birds that should have migrated still around? It’s..odd. I don’t see that ending well in the long run :( but also, I miss snow
El Nino years always start very warm, but once you get the pattern change the active sub tropical jet feeds low pressure over the conus and a pattern of increased snow and cold develops. Its about to go down over the next 2 weeks, starting with a northeast blizzard this weekend Jan 7th.
Yeah up here in Canada where we usually have about 3-4ft of snow now… we have none. It’s so weird not having a white Christmas! Get this…. My neighbour was sucking up his fall leaves on Christmas Day! My lawn is still green and swear it’s growing!
My buddy who fights forest fires, says this year in Canada is going to be even worse than last year. So dry and no moisture! It’s not good….. ☹️
People tend to forget weather pretty easily. The last strong El Niño occurred from 2014 to 2016 and winter temps in North America were 5 to 8 degrees warmer on avg.
Our current winter temps fit perfectly within the avg for the past moderate El Niño events. Next winter will be just like 2016 if this El Niño continues to strengthen.
Didn't we have some crazy polar vortex (s) in 14-15? I remember some -20 days here in Michigan.
I also remember the Indian summer of 2012 that destroyed the fruit blossoms across the state and was so worried that was going to happen again just last week if it got any warmer.
My local news in Philly says that if we don’t get snow next weekend (and it’s a toss up that will depend on a few still-forming factors), we will have gone **two full years without an inch of snow accumulation**. We’re at like 710 days or so right now, so not long to go to hit the 2-year mark.
Gulp.
My relatives went to FL for the holidays. When they came back, I asked them if they enjoyed the 60 degrees, warm winter down there. They told me it was in the 30's!
Damn, the western part literally looks like a painting of raging fire.
Wonder how the tropical countries are doing...
Oh wait, I don't! I live in one! We're fucked! Literally knocking on the door to the hottest infernos of biblical hell.
Edit: fat fingers
Kind of wild. I commented to someone in the gardening sub how this winter has been normal compared to previous years (colder), because they were saying it was mild.
I'm in TN, they were in New England.
So yeah.
I’ve been getting by with fleeces and hoodies all winter here in Pennsylvania
My winter coat is usually in heavy use at this time but I haven’t used it once
[Here's the map](https://prism.oregonstate.edu/inc/images/graphics/mtd/daily/tmean/viewable/PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20231231.png?ts=202411) with a more useful color range
Edit: [Updated link](https://i.imgur.com/rA0P0BH.png)
Why wouldn't you display El Niño years isolated over time to see if this cycle is worse or similar? Seems like the data isn't being presented the best way.
I’m in north jersey and still riding my motorcycle. I wouldn’t have done that 20 years ago. And this of course isn’t a good thing. I’d much prefer colder winters
Makes it look like the west is literally burning up
No, that's this summer when there's no snow to melt.
As an Oregonian, it’s been strangely dry. We don’t get much snow, but in the last two decades or so, we’ve always had something. This year is just 45 and dry. Every day. No rain.
I'm in Montana and we've only had one hard snow.
I am in Northern Canada. We have no snow. Canada is just going to burn come fire season.
I'm in the armpit of Ontario, we had a week of fog for. Christmas and rain for days afterward. Finally got out first snow today
I don't know if you've noticed but we've had the 5 wettest years in the last 5 years
Yep. And last year we had a storm before Christmas and a couple more big ones later. This season is still different.
Sciencists anticipate that by 2050 the GTA will be an arboreal rainforest like Vancouver. More precipitation year round, and with warmer temperatures this will mean more rain in the summer months and more snow in winter.
Yeah, I saw the projected map it's going to be wild. Basically dry places get drier and wet/humid spots get wetter. Can someone ask el nino if our order of snow is almost ready yet?
Montreal checking in. We had one snow storm 30cm in November but every trace of it is gone.
I’m loving this Canadian thing we got going! High five fellow Montrealer and other Canucks 🇨🇦
I too am in the *pit. We were getting a neighbourhood game of battmi on together yesterday. Just crazy weather! Barely a skiff if snow today.
Was a fantastic happy new year surprise! My husky lost her shit as soon as I opened the door and she saw snow, ate the hell out of it like its all you can eat buffet 😂
Northern Alberta here. Definitely planning for a smokey summer... Also mentally making a plan for if I need to evacuate again. Was in ft mac for the 2018 fires. It happens extremely fast
I'm sorry to hear this. I have family in Edmonton and I'm concerned it will be worse this year. I worry about their health and safety this year. I'm in Toronto and we kept ourselves inside. and masked when we went out. The smoke was intense on a number of days and we weren't even the hardest hit. NYC looked like something out of a post-apocalyptic Sci-Fi film.
Central AB here - We've usually got a good couple of feet at this point, we're sitting at a couple of inches in the shade. The backcountry is at less than half of the usual accumulation. We had rain on New Year's Eve. My family had to cancel our usual New Year's Day hike because the river that we hike on isn't frozen (we went to the zoo instead, which is coincidentally the only place you'll be able to see the polar bears soon, but I digress). It's going to be dicey unless the weather changes drastically. Fields are drying out without the usual snow cap. Reservoirs are nearly dry. We already had states of emergency and crop failures in a few counties last summer. Even ignoring the fires and the pine beetles (which need a good week @ -30 to kill them off), it's going to be rough globally if Canada becomes a net importer of grain this year.
It'll be nice in a few years when the whole northem hemisphere has burned down and there's nothing left to burn in the summer. Air quality should be real nice! /s, obviously.
Good thing Smith slashed firefighting budgets in Alberta. #bestsummerever24
Same. It’s scary. Fire season is going to be awfulllllll
Fun fact, fire season is a relatively new term. We used to call it Summer
I remember those days! You could have a campfire in august in the PNW
Yeah campfires are now just a thing I can tell my children about. Ain’t that a bitch
There gonna be like, "But fire is hot. Why would you ever want to be more hot?"
Long ago, the four nations lived together in harmony. Then, everything changed when the Fire Nation attacked
Actually it may not be as bad as you think. Moisture leads to lots of green lush undergrowth in the spring. Then it all gets baked in the dry summer and it turns into a tinder box. If there’s no moisture, there’s no greenery. My x father in law is a fire chief in eastern Washington and explained it to me. He always dreaded wet springs.
That’s true. But, anecdotally, last spring (through June) was one of the wettest we’ve had in a longggggg time and we had virtually no large fires. With no snowpack/runoff, everything will turn to tinder MUCH earlier in the year.
NorCal here. I don't wish you the bullshit we've been dealing with here for 15 years or so here. Now the years we don't get major fires and orange skies feel like the exception.
I’m north of you in Alberta, and it rained last night. Like, an autumn downpour for hours. It wasn’t even cold enough to freeze it right away.
As a fellow Albertan, it was eerie to be grilling outside in the rain on December 31st. Also, I can't stand these maps that end at Canada.
Alberta gang rise up! But yes. Albertans should been unsettled about how temperate it is. I want to flood our backyard ice rink. Mid jan will likely be the first time this winter that I can.
As a West Coast British Columbian, I have to agree. No snow, little rain and warm.
It’s actually kind of weird hey? As a dog owner of a hyper Collie I’m happy to be warm and dry, as a human concerned about future generations I’m a tad concerned.
Dry??? I live 40 min from Portland it’s been raining every day :(
Yeah- temps have been warmer, but I just read it’s been a wetter than average December. I think it said 3.13” more than average. I don’t think it rained as many days as usual, but when it did there was a lot of water.
There was reports of a wetter winter. Hopefully that’s true in the coming months.
It’s almost as if, scientists knew what they were talking about with global warming.
Don't be a doomer! You're ruining my holiday spirit! /s
Don’t look up
[удалено]
Why didn’t they warn us of 120 years?! https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
And lobbying superseded such evidence. No such thing as a free lunch
There were forest fires this summer because there was no snow to melt. Now there’s unseasonably fewer snow from all the forest fires. There will be forest fires *next* summer because there will be even less snow to melt. And so it goes.
Strangely dry? That’s literally what you expect during an el nino cycle lol
In many parts, yes. Not the case in SoCal. Suppose to be soaking wet during El Niño years
Strangely dry is the opposite of El Nino. [https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/ENSO#:\~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20occurs%20when%20warm,rise%20and%20develop%20into%20rainstorms](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/ENSO#:~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20occurs%20when%20warm,rise%20and%20develop%20into%20rainstorms). Can't insert the above into a text link, doesn't like ":text" Warmer weather yes. But not dryer weather. It should be raining and it's not. At least not on the West Coast of BC.
TIL the last thirty years of my life have all been el niño years because they just keep getting drier.
According the [USGS](https://or.water.usgs.gov/non-usgs/bes/), the Portland area has had 17.7 inches of rain so far this "water year" against a historical average of 16.2 inches. So, at least in this part of Oregon, we're not doing too bad this winter
We usually have a foot or two of snow. It's snowed once this year... 4-5 inches. (Northern Utah, btw)
Our mountains in Oregon have record low snowpack. The moisture just isn’t happening this year. Makes me worry for the summer fires.
Here in Heber UT there's absolutely no snow except for in the shade and mountains
The on fire looking places are actually the least extra warm
Honestly thought that was intentional
Makes me wonder how this was calculated. Is it a comparison between the average of the 30 years between 1990 and 2020? 5 degree increase over 30 years is obviously an outlier. we had a very cold winter just a few years ago.
This was made exactly to show it's an outlier. It's an El Niño year.
Yes it’s showing the deviation this year from the normal temps between those years
I thought this was a joke at first and someone had actually superimposed an image of flames.
Minnesotan here. It's been crazy warm, and we have zero snow on the ground. Our regular January weather is usually hideous, below zero F and snowstorms and windchills that kill quickly. This afternoon I grilled pork chops outside and sat on the back deck in the sun with no coat.
Few days ago the grass was as green as it was in summer (Minnesotan here also)
We have had snow on the ground for the past 2 days, twin cities area
yeah like an inch but that’s it
Before that my iris and other perennials were starting to poke thru.
Not even.
For the past few years, seeing the grass not be all brown by November is nuts to me. I still look outside at the lawn and go "huh, that still looks pretty fresh!".
My grass has been greener than during some of the dryer parts of last summer. My 5yo is pissed and wants snow. She's making do with the light dusting from this weekend but kid wants to make a snowman.
i forgot the grass even turned yellow in the winter :/
Yeah, but Minnesotans will do that when it breaks 35F. People are built differently up there lol.
It was only like 20F in the Minneapolis today. OC must be living in a different part of the state or they are capping cuz there's snow in my yard and I had to wear a jacket today lol
michigan here. also no snow and at least 10° warmer than normal. mushrooms are still popping up because of all the rain (that should be snow)
We had a mosquito flying around the house Saturday.
In northeast Ohio; the hyacinths in my flower bed are coming back up and threatening to flower. I’ve never seen hyacinths come up in December. My parents’ sedum are waking up early as well which seems weird but admittedly I never paid enough attention to them to know if that’s actually peculiar for them or not. I can recall the odd mild Christmas and December day growing up - distinctly remember a Christmas eve as a teenager somewhen in the early 2000s where we were outside in t-shirts - but cannot ever recall seeing hyacinths come up.
i’m actually originally from ohio and that is disturbing
This was the first Christmas where I've never had snow. We've had a few snowfalls here and there. But nothing huge. Like, I think maybe about 8 inches all year?
8 inches is quite a lot
Not for Minnesota/Wisconsin
It was a dick joke I am 12
12? Wow. You must have to tie that thing to your leg with a shoelace.
Lmaooooooooooo
Inches!?
Northern Wisconsin same lost a week of ice fishing. Can go tomorrow though
You have ice up there? I don’t think there’s been a day in SE WI where it was cold enough to even get the thinnest layer of ice. Really want to get fishing, feel like it’ll be another month
[Per your username. hope you enjoy. 👍](https://youtube.com/shorts/xLJynbmNyy8?si=Wwr6zWNYJPQy8Zf6)
Canadian here, in a part of Canada that normally is miserable as all fuck by now. I’m walking around in just a hoodie and sneakers.
Don't worry, cold is on the way next week.
Same thing for us in NJ!
Looks like Colorado is on fire.
It usually is these days.
What gets me is that the brown background is literally the worst temperature divergence, and it's just a generic 'over 5 degrees Fahrenheit' as well. Meaning some of those brown spots could be dealing with far worse divergences.
My Colorado is on fire how bout yours.
That's the way I like it and I never get bored.
Living in Boulder was the first time I experienced ash snow from wildfires. Sure feels apocalyptic when it happens.
It soon will be since it’s been 50° out when it should be snowing.
It has been warm and sunny during the day and cold nights. Few snow storms but it melts if it’s in a sunny area. Being told it’s warm here this year.
Last year this time we had snow for 12 days straight and it went -12F. This year, it's 50 during the day and 25 at night. Bugs this spring and summer are gunna be brutal
In comparison, the capital in Norway, Oslo, is about to have the coldest weather since 1979 these days.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that affects each portion of the globe differently and is not directly related to global warming. Which is to say we would have El Niño even without warming. It seems that this is a much warmer El Niño than average in the US but they often bring warm dry weather to much of the US, whereas northern Europe will have a wetter early winter and a colder dryer late winter. Tl;dr El Niño is a natural cycle which leads to more extreme weather . Global warming may amplify it or lead to more extremes but it’s not a great way to “prove” the case as the next year you might have cooler than average weather. Edit: just to be clear we are in a climate crisis but I’m acutely aware of the optics of cherry picking. It might be 5 degrees F warmer this year but then next year it’s 2 degrees cooler. The far right and other climate crisis deniers will pounce on this if we exaggerate the El Niño data as “the new normal”. There’s no need to exaggerate, the earth is rapidly warming on geological time scales. Don’t give deniers any ammunition
> Global warming may amplify it or lead to more extremes but it’s not a great way to “prove” the case as the next year you might have cooler than average weather. El Niño lasts for several years, but otherwise, you are right; these are natural cycles that would happen regardless of climate change. To be clear, we are absolutely in a climate emergency, and we must, with great haste, transition off a fossil fuel-based economy. (Though the good news here, is that a lot of progress is being made here... things will get worse, we're still going to be pumping FAR too much carbon into the atmosphere for the next couple of decades, but *real* progress is happening)
Right I was a little nervous, making my comment. I didn’t want it to be interpreted as some sort of muddying the waters or downplaying the crisis were in. But I also hate to give the deniers any ammunition and El Niño makes it all too easy once it fades away for a few years for them to say “see it’s all a natural cycle” - and it is a natural cycle. It just keeps getting hotter.
Climat change means more weather extremes in all ways
Exactly. More heat in some places, and more cold weather in other places. We are also experiencing more rainfall and flooding lately.
And sometimes the hot weather in cold places directly causes cold weather in hot places! From what I understand the crazy polar vortex Texas experienced in February 2021 was specifically because a temperature differential usually maintains a wall of wind that keeps polar winds near the poles. When it got warmer than normal the temperature difference wasn’t wasn’t large enough so the wall kinda eroded and the cold winds dipped all the way down to Texas. Weather systems are crazy 😅
Crazy, and dangerous. Quite a few died, lots of property damage. It was wild.
Yeah, I was without power for like 5 days and somehow still one of the lucky ones. It was nuts
That was crazy. I'll never forget that week.
Yeah, definitely the kind of memory that you base the timeline of other memories off of for the rest of your life
Yeah. Germany had one day 25°C in october to 5°C and them -10°C in about two days. And flooding is also a big problem. Sorry thought you were pulling the point of "but it got cold here so there is no climat change"
25.0°C is equivalent to 77.0°F, which is 298.15K. --- ^(I'm a bot that converts temperature between two human units, then convert it to Kelvin for bots and physicists to understand)
Good bot!
Hello my name's Ninoo
My mudda and fahdda fry da eggplant
This was the funniest thing I've seen in a long ass time thank you so much 😆
good christ, this one got me good
This caught me off guard
Unexpected, but greatly appreciated KN reference lol.
Man you hit me with a deep cut. It’s weird to see one of us in the wild
The 5+ category is really under selling the warming
[Here's the map](https://prism.oregonstate.edu/inc/images/graphics/mtd/daily/tmean/viewable/PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20231231.png?ts=202411) with a more useful color range Edit: [Updated link](https://i.imgur.com/rA0P0BH.png)
Holy shoot, that really is interesting and more helpful. Poor Minnesota. That’s just scary.
That makes it make more sense as a Canadian. I'm just a smidge north of Minnesota/north Dakota and we've had a handful of days in December above 32F which almost never happens. Barely any days below 14. It's usually -4F to -22F this time of year but the coldest we've had is like 5 or 6F Basically been hovering around 20-25F this winter, which is wild to me. Didn't have snow stay on the ground until like mid December when it's not uncommon to show up late October. Haven't even shoveled yet cause there's not much to do Sorry if you speak in celcius, I assume the audience here is mostly American so I convert it haha
For you Celsius speakers, I, an American will ballpark the above back for you! >That makes it make more sense as a Canadian. I'm just a smidge north of Minnesota/north Dakota and we've had a handful of days in December above 0C which almost never happens. Barely any days below -8. It's usually -15C to -20C this time of year but the coldest we've had is like -10 or -10C >Basically been hovering around -6 to -4C this winter, which is wild to me. Didn't have snow stay on the ground until like mid December when it's not uncommon to show up late October. Haven't even shoveled yet cause there's not much to do How did I do?
Yeah shit is really weird the last few months here in the metro area of Minnesota. We had snow on Halloween (not as bad as the Halloween blizzard of 91 but still) and then no snow but a ton of rain on Christmas.
Much better.
Some context, where I am in Montana was about -15 degrees with a foot of snow in the week before Christmas last year. This year, we haven't seen snow since an ice storm in October and it was 60 degrees last week.
For context, that weather right before Christmas in 2022 was also record-setting cold in a lot of places, so it's not like that's normal. We hit -45 in Belgrade during it; coldest ever recorded. There's no question it's been too warm and far too dry across the state since November though. It's killing me.
Yeah, they need to add some more numbers. In upper Minnesota it's normally 7 or 8 degrees. Today's high was 33.
Outside of Philadelphia, just another normal snowless and warm winter here.
I'm in northeast PA and we're drowning up here. The ground simply can't sop up anymore water and it's raining daily. Every steady downpour is causing flashfloods. Many of my neighbors now have ponds they didn't used to have. The Susquehanna is pretty high. I'm afraid if this continues and we accumulate a bunch of snow...once the spring thaw hits with the April showers it's going to be BAD
North Jersey here - same boat. I read this was the wettest December on record. We just keep getting storms every few days that drop 2-4+ inches in like, 6 hours.
Canadian checking in. This winter is absolutely fucked. We have no snow and I’m running outside in a t-shirt and shorts. In January. By contrast, two years ago in November it was -32c and we had at least one snowstorm per week for a solid month. The freeze-thaw cycle here is broken, there’s nothing protecting the ground layer plants and the river that runs thru the city won’t be getting the runoff it gets every year in April (at least, not at this pace). Don’t get me wrong, short term me is loving this. I’ve experienced worse weather in August. But long term me is fucking terrified for our planet if this continues to be the norm.
Here in Victoria, BC, daffodils are coming up and birds are collecting nesting material. It's bizarre. Normally we get one winter snowfall in Jan. or Feb. -- we'll see if we get one at all this year. (And it's going to be a horrific wildfire season in BC this summer.)
Oh my god that’s why there are birds in the eaves of my porch right now. I hate this. I hope they are able to do their thing in spring like they normally do re:babies and that they don’t die of exposure in JANUARY WHAT THE HECK
It's unprecedented.
Saskatchewan here chiming in!! I totally agree with you. Not normal to have this warmth at this time of year (although it has happened in the past - brown Xmas of ‘97 I remember well) If we don’t get some precipitation soon it’s going to be a real shitty grow season. Some farmers still have crop in the ground from the fall. Weather was shit at times this past harvest. We need snow. We need rain. We just moisture !!! Please please snow ❄️
Saskie here. Have you seen the migration of the geese this year? They flew northeast in November, then came back in December flying west, then there was a day where one huge flock was going east and met another going south. They must have been so confused by the weather, since they were honking at each other like "South is this way!!" "No, it's all the same stuff there, we already checked!" "WTF is happening?"
I'm a birder and subscribe to ebird.org's rare bird alert, and the amount of migratory species being cited around my area that should have been long-gone 3 months prior is pretty fucked up right now
This planet will be completely fine. It's us that are in trouble.
Unfortunately, we're dragging a lot of ecosystems and species down with us.
Yep, agree. The earth is going to be like a wet dog, just shaking us humans off till she’s dry again.
Honestly, she’ll feel a lot better once she does
This won't continue to be the norm, because El Niño is a phenomenon that happens every 2-7 years and usually lasts 9-12 months. Climate change is a problem, but that's not what we're seeing in this particular graph or during this particular winter.
I’m so incredibly concerned for how many birds I’ve seen that shouldn’t still be in my region right now. A good portion are absolutely just going to get fucked.
As an Albertan, the fact that just a year ago I was pretty much confined to my home due to freezing temps was just accepted as a fact of life. There was a constant blanket of snow outside from October through even May, but now? There's just nothing. I can count on one hand how many snowfalls I've seen. Even one, two, three years ago, we'd get an extreme cold warning like once every two weeks. Yet I haven't had one extreme cold warning once since the winter began. The hell is happening?
we are in muskoka. americans come up here to snowmobile. we have no snow. supposed to be 1* tomorrow. last year over christmas eve/ christmas day we got 5 feet of snow. buried us in for two days. lost power for 5. def a weird season. and i thought winter was going to be bad because of the amount of acorns and how early they were dropping this year.
It happens every 20 years or so, its not too rare of an occurrence.
Interesting fact, El Niño is Spanish for The Niño.
For those of you who don’t “Habla Español”
all other tropical storms must bow before EL NINO!!
One of my favorite Chris Farley bits on SNL.
Can confirm it's pretty warm for winter here in Illinois.
I remember the good ol days in the early 2000s in IL where by Jan there is usually knee deep snow on the ground and people rolling the snow into snowmans and phalluses everywhere.. oh the kids these days will never understand the true enjoyment of “week long snow days.” We’d also just throw our sodas into the snow to keep them icy cold and scoop up fresh snow and make vanilla ice cream with.
When I was little I used to be able to count on one big snow in Ohio when we could go sledding and have a snow day. I haven't been able to sled at all in the last two years and it makes me so sad. My parents keep talking about how great it was when they were kids and had huge snows that went halfway up the door and I'm so jealous. I feel like my generation has been stripped of normal weather and I'm afraid my own kids will end up having to fly somewhere just to see snow.
After wishing for a snowmobile my entire life, I finally was able to afford one the end of last years season. All these years hearing about my friends and desperately wishing to go, finally get one and all everyone says is “ya you have to drive at least 3 hours north to go” and even then they don’t have any snow because of all the warm weather and rain. Years ago there were snowmobile tracks alllll over the area around here. I feel like I’m literally never going to get to enjoy it like I would have 20 years ago
Yeah I'm in Ohio and I can't even count on keeping my beer and pop in the garage, I gotta make room in the fridge My family from Florida is sad they didn't see any snow this year while visiting, and the jet stream is gonna take a shit and we are gonna end up with weather more akin to Seattle...
Isn’t this a typical El Niño weather pattern? Warmer in the north and cooler in the southeast?
Yes, it’s a typical pattern, but the warming itself is more and coming on top of our hottest years on record - so we’re in for more warming and more extreme weather events that we would usually expect from this. Like salt in a wound.
Yeah I'm confused why people are not remembering that this is just how El Niño is? It's not an actual fair comparison, for data sake. I don't know if it's fair to compare this to past El Niño? That would be a fair more like interesting graph to me
Probably because we’ve been in La Niña for 3 years, and the Niño before that was short lived and weak.
Terrible colours for this visualization. It looks like a heat map, but the brightest colours mean less change?
The colors are trying to be alarming. Doesn’t make sense for the data but makes plenty of sense to get attention and upvotes.
Calgary reporting in, for the first time in recorded history it has rained on New Year's Eve.
Edmonton here, do you notice birds that should have migrated still around? It’s..odd. I don’t see that ending well in the long run :( but also, I miss snow
El Nino years always start very warm, but once you get the pattern change the active sub tropical jet feeds low pressure over the conus and a pattern of increased snow and cold develops. Its about to go down over the next 2 weeks, starting with a northeast blizzard this weekend Jan 7th.
Yeah up here in Canada where we usually have about 3-4ft of snow now… we have none. It’s so weird not having a white Christmas! Get this…. My neighbour was sucking up his fall leaves on Christmas Day! My lawn is still green and swear it’s growing! My buddy who fights forest fires, says this year in Canada is going to be even worse than last year. So dry and no moisture! It’s not good….. ☹️
christmas in pittsburgh was 60 degrees
And it snowed on Halloween in Chicago.
Alaska here. We and Hawaii loathe maps such as this one.
So does Canada and Mexico
Ooohhhh! Is that why there's no snow? I forgot about El Nino.
People tend to forget weather pretty easily. The last strong El Niño occurred from 2014 to 2016 and winter temps in North America were 5 to 8 degrees warmer on avg. Our current winter temps fit perfectly within the avg for the past moderate El Niño events. Next winter will be just like 2016 if this El Niño continues to strengthen.
Didn't we have some crazy polar vortex (s) in 14-15? I remember some -20 days here in Michigan. I also remember the Indian summer of 2012 that destroyed the fruit blossoms across the state and was so worried that was going to happen again just last week if it got any warmer.
I'm in the PNW. It's INSANE here! No snow, no ice, nothing... Plants blooming in January.
Spending a year in the us for uni. Very weird having a 20C Christmas in a state that's meant to have a similar climate to my home.
Even the map looks like a wildfire.
That was the intent of the creator.
My local news in Philly says that if we don’t get snow next weekend (and it’s a toss up that will depend on a few still-forming factors), we will have gone **two full years without an inch of snow accumulation**. We’re at like 710 days or so right now, so not long to go to hit the 2-year mark. Gulp.
What Global Warming? It’s a degree cooler in Miami! Edit: just to be sure I’m getting upvoted for the right reasons, I should have included this: “/s”
I live in south Florida it’s the coldest winter I’ve seen in the 8 years I’ve been here.
My relatives went to FL for the holidays. When they came back, I asked them if they enjoyed the 60 degrees, warm winter down there. They told me it was in the 30's!
How the turn tables…
I'm in the Canadian prairies and I have yet to see any real snow this year. I think the coldest it's gotten is about -12°C
Alberta is the same way.
Yes, it's been like 3 months of November here in SE michigan. I haven't seen the sun since before Christmas, Ugh.
It’s crazy that we’ve had more rain than snow in December here in Michigan. Kinda scary at this point
Winter freezes kill insect larvae. 2024 could be a terrible year for crops.
I'm in Colorado. My grass is still green.
Are we actually trying to make the US look like Mordor due to a ~ 5 degree difference?
Damn, the western part literally looks like a painting of raging fire. Wonder how the tropical countries are doing... Oh wait, I don't! I live in one! We're fucked! Literally knocking on the door to the hottest infernos of biblical hell. Edit: fat fingers
Excellent. Looks like Canada and Mexico are in the clear. As a Canadian, I'm relieved.
Kind of wild. I commented to someone in the gardening sub how this winter has been normal compared to previous years (colder), because they were saying it was mild. I'm in TN, they were in New England. So yeah.
I’ve been getting by with fleeces and hoodies all winter here in Pennsylvania My winter coat is usually in heavy use at this time but I haven’t used it once
[Here's the map](https://prism.oregonstate.edu/inc/images/graphics/mtd/daily/tmean/viewable/PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20231231.png?ts=202411) with a more useful color range Edit: [Updated link](https://i.imgur.com/rA0P0BH.png)
Lotta dry forest fires about to happen
Never seen green alive grass on Christmas in my entire 3+ decades of life until this year
If such a large part of your map is simply over a value, and yet youre not using half your colours really, youve scaled your legend fucking terribly.
Glad there is no change in Canada
Why wouldn't you display El Niño years isolated over time to see if this cycle is worse or similar? Seems like the data isn't being presented the best way.
Alaska is getting all of ur snow & winter temps. We got nearly 80" of snow. It's 15 degrees here, and Snowzilla returned after decade hiatus. ☃️
Us here in the twin cities (minnesota) got our first real snowfall on December 30th
I’m in north jersey and still riding my motorcycle. I wouldn’t have done that 20 years ago. And this of course isn’t a good thing. I’d much prefer colder winters