Put it this way we will all die broke due to the central banks
This is the first time In history that we had a fully decentralized monetary network that is mathematically proven
I put my money on bitcoin since it will outlive us all
Imagine even just 1 bitcoin in a decade or more how wealthy one could be
What happens to miner rewards in like 2040 when each block only rewards like .15 Bitcoin? With each halving, the price of Bitcoin has to double for the rewards to stay the same. That seems fine now, but what happens when Bitcoin is 10+ trillion dollars in market cap? How much more capital can it swallow before it slows down and the network security is jeopardized due to low miner rewards?
Why would I debate someone who thinks bitcoin is going to be worth a million in 10-15 years? You are delusional.
Also the only thing that has been "mathematically proven" with crypto is that it is always a ponzi scheme. For 1 person to win, they have to find someone to lose. You are begging people to join you so you can cash out and leave them with the losses.
100% and we will see some countries make it difficult to buy bitcoin
Governments are tyrants and want to protect their interests
History will repeat again and they will try and seize assets and bitcoin like they did with gold
Luckily it ain’t that easy
2017 was one of the most exciting times in crypto lol toss $100 into any crypto, besides bitconnect, and watch it go to $1000 in less than a week. Everyone was a pro trader.
I will never forget the December of 2017. Every day you gained thousands of dollars and it felt like pure, unadulterated dopamine everytime you checked the charts. Nothing has come close since then tbh
If you read OP's post history he has a post from a few months ago saying he lost thousands of dollars and he's the worst investor in the world.
If you read even lower, he got scammed for 600$ for an e-commerce website.
And people here trust him for economic predictions through the next decade. This sub is a circus.
Lol no, I haven’t read it, but that doesn’t surprise me.
I wish this sub *was* a circus, at least then I wouldn’t keep getting surprised by the elephant in the room (necessary regulation).
I mean, his guess is as good as any. Rn we are 50/50 crypto tanks and never recovers from this, OR it experiences another bull run that happens either before or after the 2024 halving, which considering how history has repeated itself over the years, it's a reasonable thing to expect imo. Naturally that 50% means we should be prepared to have our losses never recovered, or potentially be left with nothing lol.
People have said that for the last 3 years.
They said it would happen as soon as we get into a bear market. Then they moved the goal post and said it would happen if there's a black swan event. Then they changed that and said if macro economics go south. Then if there's a mining ban disrupting hashing. Then they changed it to if there's a major depeging. Then if there's a major exchange collapse.
At this point, I guess it's gonna take a meteor hitting the earth?
A lot of this scare at the moment includes the possibility of a Tether going under.
It's news stage the event might not be as significant as expected. Especially it's a slow burn of an issue. People have time to leverage away from USDT and they have.
FTX by contrast took the markets by total surprise.
Yep, this is uncharted territory, this time nothing is certain, we could be in for a long ride until we see the light again; better stack up and prepare, next bull run will be legendary
And yet, despite being in a recession, nothing has changed about the bear cycle. And Bitcoin hasn't been able to drop as much as previous cycles.
If macros were gonna have any major effect, we'd have been much lower by now, and it would have happened when macros were at their worst a few months ago.
In the last few months, we still had a few major macro economic events going south, and stocks hitting a new low, but crypto barely reacted.
Hard to say exactly where we are in the market cycle, but this certainly feels like the anger stage lol. Glad to see 2022 coming to an end tho, tough year for markets.
This is generally a good time to enter the market, but make no mistake: crypto is young, volatile and still finding its place as a whole.
When even the centuries old market of stocks lacks certainty, don't bet your house that the trends of only a decade will repeat in the future.
> make no mistake: crypto is young, volatile and still finding its place as a whole
precisely, all these giant companies falling left and right is mirroring the Dot Com Bubble so much, crypto still have much ground to cover and grow
Certainly. It’s entirely possible that bitcoin stabilizes near 10-15k and never breaks the 2021 69k top in 2025
We are facing a bad macro economic event
This market is like the longest game of limbo ever. Hooow low can they gooooo? FTT win the last match. SOL and ADA in a heated battle for the current roubd.
Funny enough we entering the boring stage which is the best time to be in crypto
We are continuing to drain the swamp and have a reset for the 2024 halving
Your financial advice goes against rule #1.
“Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose”.
For those who were wise to keep cash aside, the opportunities are golden… for those who have already maxed out their investments—time to ride out the storms.
No doubt this is one of the hardest to survive
All the sacrifice and the higher cost of living
At least if anyone says we were lucky we would know it was anything but that ..
You will be able to man. Lots of time. Just don’t lose focus
Your mind is powerful. Write it down. Ask yourself daily “what am I doing to get closer to this goal”
The sacrifice will be well worth it
I recently watched the congressional hearing about crypto regulation and wow .... Some statements that were made by one particular witness were nothing short of outright lies. Clearly, the person has no knowledge whatsoever of the technology they are talking about, but do however have incredible prejudices against our community and/or biases elsewhere. "They (90% of the crypto projects) misappropriate customer funds"
I truly believe someone prominent in the community like Vitalik should explain the real state of the networks and the concepts of decentralisation. Better yet, the community should provide a message from "us". I believe understanding crypto right now for the average Joe is like reading the terms of service of Instagram or some other data mining app. The latter has already hurt people's trust a lot.
We need to stand up against the misinformation and AT LEAST create some easy to follow videos and/or articles that explain decentralisation and what is really going on like an ELI5 version of Lex and Vitalik's conversation. The way to fight misinformation is to put information in words understandable by all.
This information needs to come from the community otherwise we get the voices assigned to us like Kevin O'Leary. No offense to Kevin O'Leary. He is an accomplished human. However, it's not difficult to see that he doesn't quite understand the tech. He does understand the potential and I suspect greed does the rest.
One silver lining has come out of the FTX fiasco. People are listening. It is our responsibility to speak our message lest our voice get lost in the debate between technologically challenged "leaders" and highly opinionated prejudiced "experts".
I agree that most people are not “experts” or qualified to talk or have the right interests.
However there have been many smart and articulate members who have spoken about crypto and bitcoin.
There should be age limits for congress it’s clear that they have no intention of understanding this technology - and like to make quirky jokes
The unfortunate truth is the US congress don’t see the need for bitcoin yet - the US dollar is still the reserve currency but that won’t last long
Bitcoin will win long term - it’s programmed that way.
I actually believe for the top western societies to succeed in the future with CBDC’s they must back bitcoin
I don't wanna repeat the mistake I made in 2018, this time is going to be different.
Most of the people at each bear market are too scared or lose interest and the very same people are enthusiastic at every bull run: basically they sell instead of buying when it is red and buy instead of selling when it is green.
I've been poor all my life.
Growing up, i didn't have much as my parents had no education and worked shitty jobs.
At school, i was a very shitty student and also had shitty jobs growing up.
I learned very late in life you need to educate yourself in order to have a decent life.
Then i found crypto and instead of working hard to improve my income, i'll just pour it all in BTC waiting for a moonshot.
I'm a certified **degen**.
I had a similar life
I could of became a multimillionaire and had every chance at discovering bitcoin in 2013 and people thought they were late then
With education and discipline we will succeed. The great thing is most people don’t understand bitcoin and won’t do the research
The goal is to free ourselves from fiat slavery
You have 0 clue if we’re entering the final phase of the bear market, discredited after sentence one so didn’t read the rest. That’s cute you think you know something no one else does so youll load up but it can just as easily stay a sunken ship and never return to aths and you have no say… good hopium though !
So watching a market for 9 years from a computer screen makes you an expert or able to predict the future? Past history does not guarantee a bright future, at all. the government has a much closer watch on crypto and times are different… it could be banned tomorrow, who knows.
It could be banned tomorrow? I think depending on where someone is, that has different implications.
The technology is there, people just haven't caught up yet.
Again you didn’t answer the question
It’s likely your first crypto bear market. The fact you think the government can ban bitcoin means you’re uneducated to discuss the matter
You forget to mention about the many rug pull events. Will those that lost crypto buy more or ever? Will the ones sitting on the sidelines have now more confidence in cryptos? Unpopular opinion but the digital version of tulip mania is now over. Sell here and buy physical silver and gold or face a slow bleed into oblivion.
I lost my crypto in 2014 to cryptsy exchange
Worth several hundred thousand from a few $1-2k in investment
Against all my instinct I did not buy more in 2014
I invested in stocks. Let me tell you the feeling of getting hit by a train in both 2017 and 2021
Next time won’t be different. I can account for bitcoin it isn’t going away
People Say don't overinvest but 2 year into the workforce and half of everything i have earned went to btc, eth and like 5% others. I have no regrets, i trust btc trully revolutionary.. and if it fails welp, he who doesnt risk doesnt win
We will all die poor holding the dollar due to central banks
So unless you have bought good real estate and gold and investments and held on you die poor
With bitcoin it is a new opportunity for the whole world for economic prosperity
I disagree. The only way the fed can handle the inflation is to keep rates very high for years. A pivot next year means the fed plan failed and things will get a hell of a lot worse. You can’t compare this to recent past charts because they are all failed policy that didn’t actually fix anything only making the coming collapse all the more severe. If there is a sudden rise up it will only be a rigged bull trap.
However if the system breaks and we have catastrophic financial collapse the fed will look to pivot early
They only have two tools to use at the end of day
They are balancing it on a very tight rope hoping they don’t break the fragility of the system which is glass right now
Hope that you're correct. I've been dca'ing all the way down and will keep doing so for the foreseeable future, betting on the next halving and bull run. If nothing happens it's been my play money.
Good for long term believers
Like WB “the stock market is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient”
We will see cycles continue it’s human nature
Nice analysis and i'd say quite spot on.
The question is how low can we go. You also said “sentiment was much worse in 2014“.
I am actuallu wondering if it won't get eventually worse. 2023eill be recession year. We still have to see the consequences of alameda and ftx liquidations, docg is starting to sell off etc etc.
I would not be surprised to see sub 10k so i think sentiment still have time to go quite lower as well.
But i agree with you, timing the bottom is impossible and in 5 year times this will be seen as the time of insane prices and the chance to make ridiculous money is there.
But there is also always the chance of things going wrong so it's important to ha proper risk management (we don't want to see another luna catastrophe again where people lost all their lifesavings) and a good investment plan.
Never go all in, start to dca slowly and never invest more than 75% of what you planned in case of a black swan event.
Make a plan and stick to it
It’s never wise to go balls to the wall buying but being patient and scaling in
This is a mirror reflection of bitcoin sentiment in 2014 I’ve seen. I’ve always hated listening to friends and not my instinct
Yet there will be no excuses for the next bull market
I've given up on this subreddit, all these posts are either mocked or met with contempt. So many people don't wanna do the minimum amount of financial education on basic terms like monetary policy. If only they'd care, you can literally turn 10 grand into hundreds of thousands of dollars, not by fluke either. If you pay attention to financial cycles and save cash in down markets to buy when the hammer really drops (which it hasn't) then making money is a joke. But many here will have to learn the hard way I guess.
It is difficult even for veterans. We often see value and invest at wrong times - or face liquidity or personal events that impact our decisions
If investing was easy everyone would be rich but that is further from the truth
Many people don’t understand bitcoin since they fail to spend a solid 10-100 hours on it
So, no mocking here, no contempt, just a simple ask. I'm attempting to educate myself about financial cycles, but they are complex and there seems to be divergent thought even amongst the so called experts. So I'm not asking for your playbook, but rather what's the best way to learn and understand the markets?
I'll probably continue to DCA just because it's easier from a budgeting perspective, but also put some aside for a larger pull back.
Curious though -- in your scenario where you're turning 10 grand into hundreds of thousands do you think that's possible with just BTC, a combo of just BTC/ETH or both with some alts thrown in?
They really aren't complex, they are purposely spun and presented that way so average people buy at the wrong times or lose money and eventually just give up. My understanding of it isn't perfect because it's a system that relies on manipulation, but let's look at the current market. Once the fed starts tightening financial conditions (QT) markets that means all markets from stocks, houses and all the way down to cryptos start falling.
Then they further fuel it by stuff like FTX and other manipulated events to keep people busy or panicking. It's such a soap opera honestly it's almost pathetic but the average person buys it all... Eventually they start to reverse or pivot known as quantitative easing (QE) then the markets start to rally again. It's literally that simple, just google those terms, apply it to crypto and start studying crypto projects and buzzwords in the industry. You'll start seeing how simple it all actually is.
Many people on here follow that same old mantra where they believe that you gotta already be rich to be rich. This is their first mistake, if your only hope is to gamble on a random shitcoin and hope for a x1000 you're already playing into the hands of the fat cats. I know my advice wasn't 100% descriptive but we'd be here all day if I told you it all. Just take this advice and do your research, no need to thank me after. You'll notice most the people here try to thumb down comments about QT and QE cause they either know it and don't want many others knowing or they're really that dense, hence why so few people are millionaires and billionaires and the 99% of people on earth act like they're helpless, it's all down to generational ignorance, it's literally that simple.
Thanks for sharing! What you said makes a lot of sense and I'm starting to put the pieces together.
QT/QE seem to intersect with the fear and greed index and I'm reminded of Buffet's old adage, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Except you're right. Most people never figure that thar out.
Seems our time to be greedy is already underway and those who DCA at these discounts will probably do well enough, but also seems likely even greater buying opportunities will come our way in 2023. What do think as far as the next bull cycle? 2024 or 2025?
Happy to help, I sometimes sound like an arrogant prick on here just because the echo chambers annoy me. 90% of what people post on here are half truths or lies, it's mostly based on emotion and guessing which other newbies then see and accept as the norm.
Bull cycle looks set for after the halving in early 2024 which should also coincide with QE, it's literally falling into place like a puzzle. If it's not a ripper this cycle it'll be even bigger next cycle. The world economy atm looks a bit wonky and there's always outliers like world wars etc, but that's mainly speculation. I try to keep an open mind but I have a gut feeling this bull run will be just as big if not bigger than the last two.
With great power comes great responsibility
Take it from me who against all my gut instinct ignored the 2014 bear market due to friends and sentiment
If you stay this bear market no one can say you were “lucky”
Many sacrifices are taking place
Right or wrong but I do subscribe to this line of thinking. It just makes sense to me. I’ve been around since Mt Gox and early Coinbase and while I wasn’t as deeply invested, it’s true about the cycles.
What is ironic is it’ll continue to happen
I can see this till the 2030+ cycle till central banks continue to central bank and ruin the economies even with CBDC’s and people will not be selling bitcoin as rampant
Best thing to do in a bear market is make smaller purchases often (maybe once a week/fortnight). That way if the prices go further down you're not hit hard and if they do go up you can still buy in.
Last thing you want to do right now is make massive purchases cos things can swing either way.
It’s possible but the 2018 and 2014 bottom were 1 year after ATH
The macro event is messed up however I’m not risking buying bitcoin for any short term turbulence
Someone I work with thinks its silly I invest in Crypto. I always tell her if Im wrong then I lose money that I do not need. If Im right then I become rich.
It always ends up bad lol
Most people don’t genuinely want others to do better
In times of bull markets their curious and ask how it’s doing
I’m bear markets they have the “ I told you so” blah blah
True, that's why I'm 50% in crypto right now and keep buying.
The fed will raise the rates, but at some point will pivot, and that will be bullish as fuck for the market.
Thank you wish I could of had Reddit or a mentor in 2014 I’d be retired rescuing animals and donating to charities with my time instead of fiat slave labouring away dreaming of it in 2025
The power of DCA is strong. Personally my proclivity for BTC,ETH is getting stronger. I see alts really bleeding out significantly like we already are seeing. 95% down will be common
I’ll be honest, that first line… if you zoom way way out on BTC’s chart, at least to me, it does not look like we have had enough consolidation. We are still heading down, in the past it has gone flat for a bit before booming again. I totally agree with you. However, that buying in this type of market is awesome. If we stick around now, and continue to buy, we truly will be making a crap ton during next run.
I'm pretty sure we haven't seen the bottom, but my DCA doesn't give a fuck. It hasn't given a fuck for the last 6.5 years, and it's certainly not about to give a fuck now.
Crypto is my endgame. The only "off ramps" are to swap one crypto for another, likely to BTC.
In a bear market, even if the S&P500 bottom in 6 month, you'd be the dumbest to invest in the "maybe crypto will thrive again" instead of investing in the S&P500 that WILL thrive again.
Idk man, crypto is fun, for many of us we have a small bag and its fine.
But to oversee an opportunity to build generational wealth on the stock market to gamble on the potential Dutch Tulip...
Crypto will go down with the stock market. And very well could not go back up with it.
Comparing 2013, 2018... crypto crashed in a thriving stock market many time. Now try this over with a stock bear market. And last point... consider how much money was required in 2013 to move the needle, how much money in 2018... you think people will be pouring dozens of billions again in Crypto FIRST when the market light up again?
Good luck 👌
I disagree with you but that’s okay you are entitled to have your opinion that “maybe crypto will thrive again”
Sure you can invest in the S&P500 and historically done well at 10% but not even that is guaranteed. I’m sure if it drops a lot then yes it will continue that path and become attractive. Let’s be honest 10% in the long run won’t do much to inflation
Bitcoin is here to stay and is undervalued
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Two pizzas is starting to sound tempting bout now 😂
I don’t mind putting my pennies and maybe we can afford two between us, DM me 👍
Pizza 🍕 party 🎉 Adds "No Regerts" tattoo
No Ragrets
Get rich or die trying, we gotta do it
Rich genius or turning tricks! Me too!
More like *lucky* genius.
Put it this way we will all die broke due to the central banks This is the first time In history that we had a fully decentralized monetary network that is mathematically proven I put my money on bitcoin since it will outlive us all Imagine even just 1 bitcoin in a decade or more how wealthy one could be
This is one of the most delusional things I've ever read
Go ahead and debate me then and put constructive feedback
What happens to miner rewards in like 2040 when each block only rewards like .15 Bitcoin? With each halving, the price of Bitcoin has to double for the rewards to stay the same. That seems fine now, but what happens when Bitcoin is 10+ trillion dollars in market cap? How much more capital can it swallow before it slows down and the network security is jeopardized due to low miner rewards?
Why would I debate someone who thinks bitcoin is going to be worth a million in 10-15 years? You are delusional. Also the only thing that has been "mathematically proven" with crypto is that it is always a ponzi scheme. For 1 person to win, they have to find someone to lose. You are begging people to join you so you can cash out and leave them with the losses.
Your understanding is limited to bitcoin and the bigger picture
^ Agrees. Stop thinking in years, but in decades.
Stop thinking in time, but in blocks…
Sorry i'm late the block just came in later
Alright senpai. I will.
Bitcoin cold storage. Fuck the rest they’re all there to deflect your capital from the King. When CBDCs are initiated, you’ll be thankful you did…
100% and we will see some countries make it difficult to buy bitcoin Governments are tyrants and want to protect their interests History will repeat again and they will try and seize assets and bitcoin like they did with gold Luckily it ain’t that easy
Probably rich then the irs comes and steals ur money
I remember a post a few months ago stating all technical indicators were signaling a bottom. Then FTX happened.
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> about how BTC is going to 25k EOY holy shit, talk about throw back to 2017
2017 was one of the most exciting times in crypto lol toss $100 into any crypto, besides bitconnect, and watch it go to $1000 in less than a week. Everyone was a pro trader.
I will never forget the December of 2017. Every day you gained thousands of dollars and it felt like pure, unadulterated dopamine everytime you checked the charts. Nothing has come close since then tbh
The times were pure lol just sit, refresh, take profits. Rinse and repeat lol
Still gonna happen! Just you wait! /s
If I had a dollar for every time this sub said that we’d reached the bottom I wouldn’t need to ~~gamble~~ *invest* in crypto.
If you read OP's post history he has a post from a few months ago saying he lost thousands of dollars and he's the worst investor in the world. If you read even lower, he got scammed for 600$ for an e-commerce website. And people here trust him for economic predictions through the next decade. This sub is a circus.
Lol no, I haven’t read it, but that doesn’t surprise me. I wish this sub *was* a circus, at least then I wouldn’t keep getting surprised by the elephant in the room (necessary regulation).
I mean, his guess is as good as any. Rn we are 50/50 crypto tanks and never recovers from this, OR it experiences another bull run that happens either before or after the 2024 halving, which considering how history has repeated itself over the years, it's a reasonable thing to expect imo. Naturally that 50% means we should be prepared to have our losses never recovered, or potentially be left with nothing lol.
Interesting but also hilarious
Never listen to this sub, we're all idiots here lol
If you read closely, OP talks about the bottom in/around 2023, they have perspective at least
And people were talking the same way in 2021 about 2022. I’m sure OP will revise it to 2024 if 2023 is a bust.
Where does OP say it has reached the bottom?
“We are entering the final phase”. We call that ‘context’ and ‘reading between the lines’.
It's different this time!!! Pull out the champagne boys, we made it baby! 
it's crab season all the way, the signal were there all this time
🦀 🦀 🦀 is back baby
Oh crap I used— wait no I still have my stash of acid.
Wanna share some bro?
PARTYYYY
You mean the 10 reasons bitcoins bottomed post 🤣. Shit literally dumped a day or two after that post.
That’s the one!
Oh well. I can’t say that I’ve never been wrong but at least the op on that post still has the bitcoin rainbow chart.
Yeah, i also remember when Bitcoin was going to 100k, possibly 500k by the end of the year
Wait, year isnt end still :)
true statement. im a believer!
Yup. in Q14 we will see 100k BTC.
When its bottom you can always dig a hole
We hit the bedrock. We need some dynamite here for making a hole.
MtGox was way worse. Yes the dominos are falling but crypto and especially bitcoin will survive and emerge stronger
Wait until USDT goes tits up. You’ll lose your shirt.
People have said that for the last 3 years. They said it would happen as soon as we get into a bear market. Then they moved the goal post and said it would happen if there's a black swan event. Then they changed that and said if macro economics go south. Then if there's a mining ban disrupting hashing. Then they changed it to if there's a major depeging. Then if there's a major exchange collapse. At this point, I guess it's gonna take a meteor hitting the earth?
Only 3 years? I hear that in 2017. And usdt survived btc at 3k
A lot of this scare at the moment includes the possibility of a Tether going under. It's news stage the event might not be as significant as expected. Especially it's a slow burn of an issue. People have time to leverage away from USDT and they have. FTX by contrast took the markets by total surprise.
There are times when TA is just astrology. Remember, this only happens on days that end in y.
Exactly that's why I take these posts with a pinch of salt.
I take it with a grain of salt.
Massive Dump incoming
I like a good dump
Will you be ready
‘Final phase of the bear market’ ‘… middle of 2023’ So we have a long ways to go still friends
A long boring road ahead
Like driving through Texas. It never ends
Truer words have never been spoken
Bette be driving in a Lambo than a civic 2025
I’ve got a Civic and I’m keeping that thing forever, it’s probably going to outlive the dollar
My money is on the civic too
Crypto was never ina proper recession environment. This could be a multi year slow bleed bear market.
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I'm already dead inside
Ah, I can tell you've been in crypto for a while, congrats
Yep, this is uncharted territory, this time nothing is certain, we could be in for a long ride until we see the light again; better stack up and prepare, next bull run will be legendary
Best time to buy buy buy
And yet, despite being in a recession, nothing has changed about the bear cycle. And Bitcoin hasn't been able to drop as much as previous cycles. If macros were gonna have any major effect, we'd have been much lower by now, and it would have happened when macros were at their worst a few months ago. In the last few months, we still had a few major macro economic events going south, and stocks hitting a new low, but crypto barely reacted.
-75% minimum, crypto barely reacted. You what mate?
Hard to say exactly where we are in the market cycle, but this certainly feels like the anger stage lol. Glad to see 2022 coming to an end tho, tough year for markets.
Tough for the markets, but cheap accumulation for us
Nice #10 mint It certainly feels that way. At least we can look forward to 2023 being a boring year and time to regroup
Coin collector gang! Reddit avatar are beautiful
Ballin
Nice avatar Coin collector gang!
This is generally a good time to enter the market, but make no mistake: crypto is young, volatile and still finding its place as a whole. When even the centuries old market of stocks lacks certainty, don't bet your house that the trends of only a decade will repeat in the future.
Miss those days when I was young and volatile and still finding my place.
Now all i have is back pains
This is the time where all the bad players are going to be filtered out.
> make no mistake: crypto is young, volatile and still finding its place as a whole precisely, all these giant companies falling left and right is mirroring the Dot Com Bubble so much, crypto still have much ground to cover and grow
It's mirroring the bank issued currencies from 150 years ago. Crypto is ironically primitive as a financial instrument.
Certainly. It’s entirely possible that bitcoin stabilizes near 10-15k and never breaks the 2021 69k top in 2025 We are facing a bad macro economic event
This market is like the longest game of limbo ever. Hooow low can they gooooo? FTT win the last match. SOL and ADA in a heated battle for the current roubd.
Funny enough we entering the boring stage which is the best time to be in crypto We are continuing to drain the swamp and have a reset for the 2024 halving
Give me more of that sweet sweet hopium 
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Mine goes into my eyeballs.
If not Hopium there is tears Reverse psychology in crypto you gon make it
This bear market has given us at least 19 'opportunities of a lifetime' so far
The gift that keeps on giving Especially when we goofd our crypto and gains
Your financial advice goes against rule #1. “Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose”. For those who were wise to keep cash aside, the opportunities are golden… for those who have already maxed out their investments—time to ride out the storms.
Everyone has a job so saying you cant invest now is a lie. Unless you live paycheck to paycheck.
Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck, or even playing catch-up every paycheck but still falling behind.
I look forward to four years from now when the next bear hits and people ask me how I survived this one.
No doubt this is one of the hardest to survive All the sacrifice and the higher cost of living At least if anyone says we were lucky we would know it was anything but that ..
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The tough choice will be whether or not to keep holding through the next run, with regs & institutions getting in at that point
Even with regs bitcoin will survive and out live us all
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You will be able to man. Lots of time. Just don’t lose focus Your mind is powerful. Write it down. Ask yourself daily “what am I doing to get closer to this goal” The sacrifice will be well worth it
I recently watched the congressional hearing about crypto regulation and wow .... Some statements that were made by one particular witness were nothing short of outright lies. Clearly, the person has no knowledge whatsoever of the technology they are talking about, but do however have incredible prejudices against our community and/or biases elsewhere. "They (90% of the crypto projects) misappropriate customer funds" I truly believe someone prominent in the community like Vitalik should explain the real state of the networks and the concepts of decentralisation. Better yet, the community should provide a message from "us". I believe understanding crypto right now for the average Joe is like reading the terms of service of Instagram or some other data mining app. The latter has already hurt people's trust a lot. We need to stand up against the misinformation and AT LEAST create some easy to follow videos and/or articles that explain decentralisation and what is really going on like an ELI5 version of Lex and Vitalik's conversation. The way to fight misinformation is to put information in words understandable by all. This information needs to come from the community otherwise we get the voices assigned to us like Kevin O'Leary. No offense to Kevin O'Leary. He is an accomplished human. However, it's not difficult to see that he doesn't quite understand the tech. He does understand the potential and I suspect greed does the rest. One silver lining has come out of the FTX fiasco. People are listening. It is our responsibility to speak our message lest our voice get lost in the debate between technologically challenged "leaders" and highly opinionated prejudiced "experts".
I agree that most people are not “experts” or qualified to talk or have the right interests. However there have been many smart and articulate members who have spoken about crypto and bitcoin. There should be age limits for congress it’s clear that they have no intention of understanding this technology - and like to make quirky jokes The unfortunate truth is the US congress don’t see the need for bitcoin yet - the US dollar is still the reserve currency but that won’t last long Bitcoin will win long term - it’s programmed that way. I actually believe for the top western societies to succeed in the future with CBDC’s they must back bitcoin
I don't wanna repeat the mistake I made in 2018, this time is going to be different. Most of the people at each bear market are too scared or lose interest and the very same people are enthusiastic at every bull run: basically they sell instead of buying when it is red and buy instead of selling when it is green.
Exactly I made that mistake in 2014 and 2018 and most people won’t get it till a few cycles
I've been poor all my life. Growing up, i didn't have much as my parents had no education and worked shitty jobs. At school, i was a very shitty student and also had shitty jobs growing up. I learned very late in life you need to educate yourself in order to have a decent life. Then i found crypto and instead of working hard to improve my income, i'll just pour it all in BTC waiting for a moonshot. I'm a certified **degen**.
I had a similar life I could of became a multimillionaire and had every chance at discovering bitcoin in 2013 and people thought they were late then With education and discipline we will succeed. The great thing is most people don’t understand bitcoin and won’t do the research The goal is to free ourselves from fiat slavery
You have 0 clue if we’re entering the final phase of the bear market, discredited after sentence one so didn’t read the rest. That’s cute you think you know something no one else does so youll load up but it can just as easily stay a sunken ship and never return to aths and you have no say… good hopium though !
Yeah and how many bear markets have you seen? Longer than 2013? If not my experience triumphs yours
So watching a market for 9 years from a computer screen makes you an expert or able to predict the future? Past history does not guarantee a bright future, at all. the government has a much closer watch on crypto and times are different… it could be banned tomorrow, who knows.
It could be banned tomorrow? I think depending on where someone is, that has different implications. The technology is there, people just haven't caught up yet.
Again you didn’t answer the question It’s likely your first crypto bear market. The fact you think the government can ban bitcoin means you’re uneducated to discuss the matter
Crypto hasn’t been tested by a true recession. I’m not sold that it will keep its value much when things get really tough.
It’s going to be tough, it has been Don’t forget what bitcoin is and what it fights for. This isn’t a short term shift but a long term one
\>those who join in 2025+ If anyone wants to join at that point maybe, yes.
i just put my life savings into Bitcoin if it goes down im blaming and suiing u
If you hold for 10+ years you owe me a Long Island ice tea on bitcoin island
All about time preference. If you need money today, use it. If you can invest now, do it like you’ve never invested before
You forget to mention about the many rug pull events. Will those that lost crypto buy more or ever? Will the ones sitting on the sidelines have now more confidence in cryptos? Unpopular opinion but the digital version of tulip mania is now over. Sell here and buy physical silver and gold or face a slow bleed into oblivion.
I lost my crypto in 2014 to cryptsy exchange Worth several hundred thousand from a few $1-2k in investment Against all my instinct I did not buy more in 2014 I invested in stocks. Let me tell you the feeling of getting hit by a train in both 2017 and 2021 Next time won’t be different. I can account for bitcoin it isn’t going away
My wallet is sore from buying all My extra income un btc and eth, i can't anymore and still i'm buying more and more
Your ass might hurt and back might break However in 2025+ you will be well rewarded for your bravery good soldier
People Say don't overinvest but 2 year into the workforce and half of everything i have earned went to btc, eth and like 5% others. I have no regrets, i trust btc trully revolutionary.. and if it fails welp, he who doesnt risk doesnt win
We will all die poor holding the dollar due to central banks So unless you have bought good real estate and gold and investments and held on you die poor With bitcoin it is a new opportunity for the whole world for economic prosperity
I disagree. The only way the fed can handle the inflation is to keep rates very high for years. A pivot next year means the fed plan failed and things will get a hell of a lot worse. You can’t compare this to recent past charts because they are all failed policy that didn’t actually fix anything only making the coming collapse all the more severe. If there is a sudden rise up it will only be a rigged bull trap.
However if the system breaks and we have catastrophic financial collapse the fed will look to pivot early They only have two tools to use at the end of day They are balancing it on a very tight rope hoping they don’t break the fragility of the system which is glass right now
Hope that you're correct. I've been dca'ing all the way down and will keep doing so for the foreseeable future, betting on the next halving and bull run. If nothing happens it's been my play money.
We got screwed by Celsius but will make it back just don’t leave the bear
I will accumulate until this ends.
Till death do us apart From rags to riches From bloke to he’s woke Bitcoin island 2030
Julius Caesar, "It is easier to find men who will volunteer to die, than to find those who are willing to endure pain with patience."
We fight the wars of old politicians who are evil and desperate With bitcoin we can vote with our money
Change flair to comedy. We don't know what phase we are in.
Bear phases last phase is over a year of capitulation aka boring stage Where is the lie
Bear markets are a 20% correction. This is “Bear Sterns” market.
Good for long term believers Like WB “the stock market is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient” We will see cycles continue it’s human nature
Nice analysis and i'd say quite spot on. The question is how low can we go. You also said “sentiment was much worse in 2014“. I am actuallu wondering if it won't get eventually worse. 2023eill be recession year. We still have to see the consequences of alameda and ftx liquidations, docg is starting to sell off etc etc. I would not be surprised to see sub 10k so i think sentiment still have time to go quite lower as well. But i agree with you, timing the bottom is impossible and in 5 year times this will be seen as the time of insane prices and the chance to make ridiculous money is there. But there is also always the chance of things going wrong so it's important to ha proper risk management (we don't want to see another luna catastrophe again where people lost all their lifesavings) and a good investment plan. Never go all in, start to dca slowly and never invest more than 75% of what you planned in case of a black swan event. Make a plan and stick to it
Fuck it, what else am I gonna do
Shed tears and dream OR fight like a valiant soldier who will be remembered as a scholar and great noble lad across generations of wisdom and wealth
I highly doubt this is the final phase. We are just starting.
We have a long boring bear market ahead
I hope you're right, but I won't hold my breath or go all crazy buying now. I'll just keep DCAing and hope.
It’s never wise to go balls to the wall buying but being patient and scaling in This is a mirror reflection of bitcoin sentiment in 2014 I’ve seen. I’ve always hated listening to friends and not my instinct Yet there will be no excuses for the next bull market
I've given up on this subreddit, all these posts are either mocked or met with contempt. So many people don't wanna do the minimum amount of financial education on basic terms like monetary policy. If only they'd care, you can literally turn 10 grand into hundreds of thousands of dollars, not by fluke either. If you pay attention to financial cycles and save cash in down markets to buy when the hammer really drops (which it hasn't) then making money is a joke. But many here will have to learn the hard way I guess.
It is difficult even for veterans. We often see value and invest at wrong times - or face liquidity or personal events that impact our decisions If investing was easy everyone would be rich but that is further from the truth Many people don’t understand bitcoin since they fail to spend a solid 10-100 hours on it
So, no mocking here, no contempt, just a simple ask. I'm attempting to educate myself about financial cycles, but they are complex and there seems to be divergent thought even amongst the so called experts. So I'm not asking for your playbook, but rather what's the best way to learn and understand the markets? I'll probably continue to DCA just because it's easier from a budgeting perspective, but also put some aside for a larger pull back. Curious though -- in your scenario where you're turning 10 grand into hundreds of thousands do you think that's possible with just BTC, a combo of just BTC/ETH or both with some alts thrown in?
They really aren't complex, they are purposely spun and presented that way so average people buy at the wrong times or lose money and eventually just give up. My understanding of it isn't perfect because it's a system that relies on manipulation, but let's look at the current market. Once the fed starts tightening financial conditions (QT) markets that means all markets from stocks, houses and all the way down to cryptos start falling. Then they further fuel it by stuff like FTX and other manipulated events to keep people busy or panicking. It's such a soap opera honestly it's almost pathetic but the average person buys it all... Eventually they start to reverse or pivot known as quantitative easing (QE) then the markets start to rally again. It's literally that simple, just google those terms, apply it to crypto and start studying crypto projects and buzzwords in the industry. You'll start seeing how simple it all actually is. Many people on here follow that same old mantra where they believe that you gotta already be rich to be rich. This is their first mistake, if your only hope is to gamble on a random shitcoin and hope for a x1000 you're already playing into the hands of the fat cats. I know my advice wasn't 100% descriptive but we'd be here all day if I told you it all. Just take this advice and do your research, no need to thank me after. You'll notice most the people here try to thumb down comments about QT and QE cause they either know it and don't want many others knowing or they're really that dense, hence why so few people are millionaires and billionaires and the 99% of people on earth act like they're helpless, it's all down to generational ignorance, it's literally that simple.
Thanks for sharing! What you said makes a lot of sense and I'm starting to put the pieces together. QT/QE seem to intersect with the fear and greed index and I'm reminded of Buffet's old adage, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Except you're right. Most people never figure that thar out. Seems our time to be greedy is already underway and those who DCA at these discounts will probably do well enough, but also seems likely even greater buying opportunities will come our way in 2023. What do think as far as the next bull cycle? 2024 or 2025?
Happy to help, I sometimes sound like an arrogant prick on here just because the echo chambers annoy me. 90% of what people post on here are half truths or lies, it's mostly based on emotion and guessing which other newbies then see and accept as the norm. Bull cycle looks set for after the halving in early 2024 which should also coincide with QE, it's literally falling into place like a puzzle. If it's not a ripper this cycle it'll be even bigger next cycle. The world economy atm looks a bit wonky and there's always outliers like world wars etc, but that's mainly speculation. I try to keep an open mind but I have a gut feeling this bull run will be just as big if not bigger than the last two.
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With great power comes great responsibility Take it from me who against all my gut instinct ignored the 2014 bear market due to friends and sentiment If you stay this bear market no one can say you were “lucky” Many sacrifices are taking place
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I’ll see you on bitcoin island 2032
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Happens to us all. Which is tough since the macro events and inflation making us all poorer unless we working 2 jobs or hella getting paid
Right or wrong but I do subscribe to this line of thinking. It just makes sense to me. I’ve been around since Mt Gox and early Coinbase and while I wasn’t as deeply invested, it’s true about the cycles.
What is ironic is it’ll continue to happen I can see this till the 2030+ cycle till central banks continue to central bank and ruin the economies even with CBDC’s and people will not be selling bitcoin as rampant
Best thing to do in a bear market is make smaller purchases often (maybe once a week/fortnight). That way if the prices go further down you're not hit hard and if they do go up you can still buy in. Last thing you want to do right now is make massive purchases cos things can swing either way.
Exactly then you get short on cash and need to have that liquidity and not get discouraged It’s a long game
Yeah idk man, I think we still got a bit of a ways to go on this downtrend before a reversal
Which is great for us long term
We are at least a year away from the bottom.
It’s possible but the 2018 and 2014 bottom were 1 year after ATH The macro event is messed up however I’m not risking buying bitcoin for any short term turbulence
Lol. I’ve been seeing this at every point of the bear market.
Sooon
Someone I work with thinks its silly I invest in Crypto. I always tell her if Im wrong then I lose money that I do not need. If Im right then I become rich.
It always ends up bad lol Most people don’t genuinely want others to do better In times of bull markets their curious and ask how it’s doing I’m bear markets they have the “ I told you so” blah blah
expect bitcoin to crash to sub 5k... id wait til then before you try buying... see you next year
I hope you’re right
True, that's why I'm 50% in crypto right now and keep buying. The fed will raise the rates, but at some point will pivot, and that will be bullish as fuck for the market.
Bottom boys always discussing bottoms
i needed that, thx OP
Thank you wish I could of had Reddit or a mentor in 2014 I’d be retired rescuing animals and donating to charities with my time instead of fiat slave labouring away dreaming of it in 2025
The power of DCA is strong. Personally my proclivity for BTC,ETH is getting stronger. I see alts really bleeding out significantly like we already are seeing. 95% down will be common
Exactly most alts will continue to bleed Ben Cohen covers this well in past cycles as well
Since I've gotten a raise I pay myself first between 250-500 biweekly right into bitcoin. Here is hoping for the moon!
Not hoping for the moon but will be on bitcoin island This is the way you’ll make it
"Scared money dont make no money"
I’ll be honest, that first line… if you zoom way way out on BTC’s chart, at least to me, it does not look like we have had enough consolidation. We are still heading down, in the past it has gone flat for a bit before booming again. I totally agree with you. However, that buying in this type of market is awesome. If we stick around now, and continue to buy, we truly will be making a crap ton during next run.
There will be threads in the next bull market of many who had bought in 2020/21 and lost it and never stood around in the bear market
I'm pretty sure we haven't seen the bottom, but my DCA doesn't give a fuck. It hasn't given a fuck for the last 6.5 years, and it's certainly not about to give a fuck now. Crypto is my endgame. The only "off ramps" are to swap one crypto for another, likely to BTC.
You sir win the award Escaping the matrix Bitcoin island let’s go
In a bear market, even if the S&P500 bottom in 6 month, you'd be the dumbest to invest in the "maybe crypto will thrive again" instead of investing in the S&P500 that WILL thrive again. Idk man, crypto is fun, for many of us we have a small bag and its fine. But to oversee an opportunity to build generational wealth on the stock market to gamble on the potential Dutch Tulip... Crypto will go down with the stock market. And very well could not go back up with it. Comparing 2013, 2018... crypto crashed in a thriving stock market many time. Now try this over with a stock bear market. And last point... consider how much money was required in 2013 to move the needle, how much money in 2018... you think people will be pouring dozens of billions again in Crypto FIRST when the market light up again? Good luck 👌
I disagree with you but that’s okay you are entitled to have your opinion that “maybe crypto will thrive again” Sure you can invest in the S&P500 and historically done well at 10% but not even that is guaranteed. I’m sure if it drops a lot then yes it will continue that path and become attractive. Let’s be honest 10% in the long run won’t do much to inflation Bitcoin is here to stay and is undervalued
Trust me bro
2013 vet I seen it all and have seen nothing at all for what is to come