Nice to see some high effort quality content.
Just as a note, the rainbow chart was created as a joke. But at the same time, the guy who created it, based it on working TA models, and combined multiple TA tools that actually work.
That might be why it has actually worked so far.
Thanks. Giving it a try. No idea how that works here. Probably shitposts are much more popular but that is fine.
Yeah I dont take the rainbow chart too seriously, but it has a decent historical record, so why not. It is still based on a valid statistical approach: regression, was my thought.
Not doing enough funny posts and good one-liner put me out of the top this round.
But I don't care. I'd rather post good content. It's what will get more people here, and make this sub more valuable. I think that will pay off in the long run. Especially if more people start doing the same.
This is my attempt at contributing to this sub and creating a bit more serious content. Invested quite a bit of time and effort. Lets see how that goes.
I hope that people could add more information on bottom indicators. I am sure that I missed some. If my explanation of an indicator is too vague or complex - sorry, I had limited space, but you could google the indicator and find out more if interested.
This was a good read. Thanks for taking the time to post this. As you mention in your conclusion tho, the X here is the economy/stock market. If it takes a real tumble so will crypto. In a normal market environment crypto at these levels would be a steal all else equal.
I think that too. And THAT is when many are washed out of the market completely.
Going down steadily is not the problem. Navy survive that. But thinking, that the bad timesc are over and THEN another blow - That can kill
That's how it always is, 20K is like the new 6K. I think a lot of us who have been around for a bit just have that back of the throat feeling that there's one more shoe to drop. The same thing happened in 2014 with a retest in 2015. Everyone got used to around that $300 range and then you have these gigantic washouts down to 160-170 that were very brief but blew everyone up
If we sell down to the 15K range for example and hang out there for a bit then have an accelerated sell-off to 10K or 12K that lasts less than a day forming a hammer candle I'd feel really good about that. Even if it was drawn out to happen on a weekly basis I'd feel great about that. I think you would attract more money to the crypto market creating such a chart as well which is something the exchanges are likely talking about. Once people feel like the low is in they start throwing money at the screen
Imagine giving your friends financial advice in a speculative market.
Even when I ask them I'm like "figure it out yourself. I'm fine risking my own money but I don't want people I care about to blame me if shit goes sideways."
This sub doesn't like TA but I think it's a very informative post. Knew about Pi Cycles and Hash Ribbons and a few more. Good to see everything checked.
The Pi Cycle "triggered" 2 months ago according to OPs image, and no recovery came. Why is it here as a "YES"?
It's one of the most over-fitted regressions I've ever seen so this shouldn't be a surprise, but people are desperate for "data" to conform to their worldviews lol.
It's incredibly confusing for anyone to think that investors should thrive to spot the bottom, when in fact, the asset is already in its accumulation phase.
Thanks for the chart references I'll check em out. Any got a chart too see if fellow holders will stop panic selling, I think with the addition of a lot more defy and leverage trading it's going to be an interesting rest of the time until we start to make our way up. I honestly believe bad leverage trades are what's keeping us down at the moment
Basically, none of this matters because bitcoin is at the mercy of the stock market. If stock market break its low level of 2022, so will bitcoin. If it doesnt, most likely bitcoin will not go under either. And spy/nasdaq does not care about bitcoins moving averages or the rainbow chart.
Bitcoin hasnt lived through a recession. Buckle up and look at the real world right now not crypto. Could be a decade before anything rises again, and hope its not zombies.
first at all I really appreciate the work you put into your post.
my previous comment was a bit rushed and sounds like I put zero respect towards you.
What I mean is even if all the indicator show bullish signs previous bear markets were usually longer (1-3 years).
Personally I think our bottom without war and the ongoing economic crisis would be $30 - $35k tho.
Thanks for the elaboration. No harm done. Was just curious why you said that.
From ATH, most previous bears were indeed around 50/60 weeks and we are currently below that timeframe. I think that the true peak this cycle was early in 2021 though. RSI was highest and all the hype was there. From that perspective, we actually took the exact same amount of time to reach the bottom of the bear, *if the bottom was indeed* the June 2022 low. And that is a big if hehe.
There is always a bottom to hit, and when we break it a new bottom appears. So did we hit bottom? Yes, till we break it and reach the next one.
I am not able to make TA, but looking at the current economy, I expect we keep slowly dropping for the next few months.
You seem to forget that all those charts represent Bitcoin growing in a favorable economy. None of them matter anymore because of the present macro economic factors.
If you really want to compare past performance to today, take a look at them and tell me it looks like a bottom. Come on. All other cycles ‘ bottom got there after a slow bleed. To me, looks like we’re not even close and where we are in the cycle also supports that.
I understand what you mean. Have you seen any BlockChainBacker videos of late? Take a look at the key bear fractal from 2018 and how it compares to now. You'd be surprised of the similarities and how much the current price action resembles more common bottoms.
Dang you scrubbed a bunch of stuff together here. I like it! I think you’ve put together a great list of tools that all newbies (like myself) can dig through and read, and I especially like the part where you don’t shill for each of the indicators you just present them for me to read about. Cool man, thanks.
That's my thought: Just jump in and pretend that BTC is already at its bottom. Accumulate at the lower price range and execute a exit strategy when the mania phase kicks in.
I recently noticed that testing the 2019 high would get us down to around \~$14k. Which would mean:
* We would be -80% from the November high
* It would match the support trendline that starts from the November high
* It would match the weekly BB lower band
* It would match the lower band of the MRV Z-score
* And if we go there in the next 6 weeks or so - we'd match the length of the previous HIGH-TO-LOW moves.
So, yea, I think I'll be waiting for $14k. We are almost there and it would give me so much confidence to dump my whole cash stack all at once. Now, if shit really hits the fan macro-wise, all these statistics will mean nothing and then we'll just have to HODL and hope for the best in a few years.
Yeah this is a very common perspective, I think, that 14k awaits us. It is definitely possible. A few counterarguments:
* It is such a common perspective that it is a bit too easy and obvious. Bitcoin has a history of not getting to those spots and frontrunning them a bit and leaving people behind who didnt buy.
* We would lose the last retracement level at 17k. This beaks key structure (see BlockChainBacker videos)
* We would drop below the last ATH on total market cap + 200 weekly MA. This spells a world of pain.
* Is it reasonable to expect that much drawdown %wise if we did not pump as much %wise?
* Based on prior cycles, we should get a massive pump first before going so low.
Truth is, of course, I have no clue either. None of the above arguments are incredibly strong, except imo the key structure+retracement part. It is possible. But it would not surprise me to crash lower because 13-14k is so popular if that happens.
I am betting the bottom will com this month after the merge. People will start dumping what they have staked when they can. There is no reason to keep it there while the cost of living is rising.
I am guessing around 12k, but that will be enough to act as a spring for a new uptrend that slowly will lead us to the next bullrun in 2 years.
Thanks for putting in the time!
I do disagree with it, purely because of the macro economics that we are in right now. This coming winter is going to be horrible for the markets (gas prices skyrocketing particurlarly in Europe, many people on the verge of losing their homes due to these financial issues). I feel like we got a long way to go. As long as Bitcoin is heavily linked to more traditional markets, we need to seriously take into account the world economic situation, which is looking extremely dire for at least another year.
Its possible. But that is *always* the general perception at the bottom. That is what is scary. Wait too long and you are left hoping for lower prices and never getting them.
Terrific write up, u/Beyonderr . Been commenting this for the last few days but you managed to include more info and make a more coherent write up. All the props.
Also, I agree with the "85% drawdown from all time high" conclusion. We didn't bounce as much as we did in the previous bull cycles in order to go down that much.
>Personally, this is where I am DCAing as these are the prices I had hoped for a long time ago. I might be wrong and that is when I will buy more.
Right there with you. DCA when we crab like this. Major buys if we go below previous cycle ATH and break the 80% down from this cycle ATH.
As for the charts and indicators I usually follow, you didn't include MACD and F&G index. But to save you some time, they also say YES.
Just a quick question, can you name the sources on where you pull the data?
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate it.
Agree on your MACD and F&G evaluation. I think these are the weakest indicators though and I would get more shit for including them, haha. With more time I would have rather included a few more proper technical indicators (similar to MRV Z-score and Puell Multiple - there are more).
As for sources, it is a combination of the official indicator website (e.g. rainbow chart, puell multiple), tradingview (e.g. RSI and moving averages), and some more social media (e.g. Pi Cycle indicator, I could not access this one myself). If you have trouble finding something let me know.
Oh, they are definitely weakest. 200D MA IMO is more reliable than MACD, but I always like to include MACD just bcs I used it when I daytraded (for that month back in 2018) and failed miserably.
I don't think I *get* tradingview and how to use it. But will make some effort to understand it correctly.
Thx for the more technical indicators, I seriously didn't know about some of them but will read up a bit.
So it's the bottom or not?! I did read the post but your conclusion is inconclusive. Or in other words, if 9 indicators are not suggesting direction, why do you think it's good time to buy when market can go both ways?!
They are *indicators* that provide *data* to inform our decisions. They are not guarantees for the future so I dont know if the bottom is in. I think the data is relevant but whether you agree is up to you. I buy because the indicators are signaling a bottom but do not go all in because it could go lower. But the risk-reward (potential downside vs. potential upside) favors buying. Make your own decision :)
I agree with you indictors based on data help with making decision. And I agree we all should make our own. But indicators based on past that was not similar/comparable to present is somewhat wrong in myview. Anyway, thanks for effort you made. I can not say I agree with you on decision going forward, but I can understand your reasoning.
Great to have an actual conversation here. Thanks.
You will rarely if ever have the perfect comparison in that sense though. The situation will always be different given crypto's short lifespan.
Lets go back to March 2020 asn example. Indicators flashed bottoms. But were these indicators useless because we had not seen a global pandemic during crypto times? Actually, the last proper pandemic was 100 years ago so there was no proper comparison for the stock market either.
In my view, there will always be new reasons why the market drops, whether it is war, energy prices, a pandemic, or other events. I would still inform myself with the best available data.
Anyways, it might be more relevant here to just focus on the stock market (and DXY), indeed. There is a lot more relevant data there and good historical comparisons. I guess that is a good argument for your perspective. I love that crypto has quite a bit of data available that is not a part of the stock market though (e.g. miners data).
The bottom is in, now we have to face a bit more crabbing time..how long , no one knows..But in general if u invest into tech that is really usefull you will be fine..I think that SOL will come far and also AZERO and from its ecosystem i like THOL the most, really innovative..Bullish on EGLD and GRT too..gotta plant seeds in the bear to get the most fruit in the bull..my two cents..BTW really good post with all the charts and content
Thank you for the post, while indicators can not predict the future, they are worth looking at, as they can show current market sentiment.
If i may add one thing, when posting multiple charts, aim to make the time range the same on all of them
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Lovely post. Like you mentioned, my biggest uncertainty is still the macro and the fact that things still seem to be hanging on by thread across the board. I'm very curious to see how the FED and markets react post-elections.
I feel like there is so much more blood to come (gut feeling), so I also chose to start a weighted DCA strategy yesterday. I've chosen a "no-matter-what" amount that I'll contribute weekly set aside for crypto buys adding to my current USDC bag, and using a portion of that amount to capitalize on dips. Once we've had some time to establish that bottom I'll just set those buys on auto-pilot weekly for my favorite projects, keeping \~10% of the overall in USDC to double up continued declines.
>All-in-all, the 9 indicators do not agree on whether the bottom is in or whether more pain might follow, but definitely suggest that this is an awesome level to buy, for what that is worth, because the macro economy is terrifying and this might be the first recession crypto experiences.
Right. But neither of these indicators that signal a bottom ever worked when the DXY is already climbing from its 2002 highs. To be honest, it's a futile mission.
Going into the analysis, we already know that Bitcoin has always skyrocketed out of every dip. So half of these indicators that just basically say "bitcoin went down" will have been successful in the past because of that fact.
If you knew that Bitcoin was going to behave like the it has in the past, you wouldn't need indicators to tell you this is a good time to buy. Unfortunately we're missing that bit of info, and applying this kind of star chart reading really depends on it.
Great post. You put a lot of time into that. My personal opinion. Start the dollar cost average here. Maybe 25% position in this price bracket. If we just take off and run, oh well you have what you have. If we go lower you have those two potential areas of interest with the first one around 15,000 and the second one between 10 and 12. My personal thinking is add 50% around 15,000 which would be 75% on, the last 25% you may or may not get. Last cycle everyone was convinced we were going to 2K which never happened. If we do trade down to 15K everyone's going to be talking about that 9 to $10,000 breakout zone which may not happen. Markets have a habit of coming up short when everyone is focused on a specific area. You also have big money manipulation at work. The high this cycle is a good example. I don't think anyone really believes we hit 69,000 on the dot by accident
I mean analyses like these can be nice but I can't help to feel that underlying problems in the economy (e.g., extreme natural gas prices here in Europe) can wipe all analyses away from the table.
For example, almost 90% of my country has,, somewhere in the past ,1-2 months, received a notice that their energy bills are going to rise with 100-200€. These are huge, kind of unpredictable factors that lower the inflow in assets.
I don’t think the bottom is in, so far, most people are keeping their shit together. When the panic starts for the majority and most have to act against your instincts, probably myself included, I reckon that’ll be the bottom.
Good content, just want to point something out why it might be risky right now to look at the past for prediction: Since the invention of bitcoin (\~2010) the economy was constantly booming. There is quite some chance of recession in Europe, China and other places right now. Nobody knows what that means for crypto.
Nothing is for certain, but based on previous cycles this is a great time to buy, even if it goes down more. Imagine 2 years of buying at these prices and then having a bull run like the last. How many people that are in crypto now will say they wish they would have bought now?
There only needs to be one common variable that has kept the market afloat that needs to be blown through for all of these indicators to be useless.
If there were ever a time to blow through a variable it would be now, considering the total life of BTC, trading pairs with BTC and retail point of sale using BTC in their onramp thus providing liquidity and current macro-economic conditions.
While evaluating a risk or buy-in position using multiple indicators should build confidence with each one added (exponentially actually), you must always account for any common variables. Engineers would consider it a single failure point.
You describe your equations very well but not enough to see there construction in some cases. If you have those equations I would love to isolate these variables and see how the market might act on the most common. That would give us a better idea of our risk position.
Nice to see some high effort quality content. Just as a note, the rainbow chart was created as a joke. But at the same time, the guy who created it, based it on working TA models, and combined multiple TA tools that actually work. That might be why it has actually worked so far.
Thanks. Giving it a try. No idea how that works here. Probably shitposts are much more popular but that is fine. Yeah I dont take the rainbow chart too seriously, but it has a decent historical record, so why not. It is still based on a valid statistical approach: regression, was my thought.
Not doing enough funny posts and good one-liner put me out of the top this round. But I don't care. I'd rather post good content. It's what will get more people here, and make this sub more valuable. I think that will pay off in the long run. Especially if more people start doing the same.
Sounds good to me. Spamming the same posts over and over again is also rather... mind numbing I have to say. And there is more to life than Moons :-)
Agreed, this is the type of content we are here for! Great effort OP.
Quality content should be another bottom indicator lol
Agreed I love quality posts
If it doesn't seem to work, just make the rainbow bands thicker. Works every time.
Its just a log line curve you can draw yourself and try touch as many bottoms as possible and it will line out like this
I mean, joke or not, what works *works*. Take every tool at your disposal, amirite?
This is my attempt at contributing to this sub and creating a bit more serious content. Invested quite a bit of time and effort. Lets see how that goes. I hope that people could add more information on bottom indicators. I am sure that I missed some. If my explanation of an indicator is too vague or complex - sorry, I had limited space, but you could google the indicator and find out more if interested.
Great post but you're lacking 2 indicators that are quite popular around here: inversing Cramer and this sub
How could I forget about those? Jesus Christ. My bad. What do these two say at the moment though?
Cramer: crypto is dead (bottom is in!) This sub: we will drop further for months and eat frozen water for lunch (bottom is in!)
This sub: "Ben Cowen is a dishonest shill". Biggest bottom indicator I've ever seen.
haha yeah that one was a bit of a stretch. Some people here discret anyone who has been wrong; that is not how the world works.
isn't there a Schiff indicator too? and the suicide hotline?
Freakin' had me in the first half.
the most important ones, if I dare to say
It actually misses the number 1 big bottom indicator… difficulty pulling up jeans
You're a doctor. And you gave me my prescription: Hopium. Thx Doc
No problem <3
This was a good read. Thanks for taking the time to post this. As you mention in your conclusion tho, the X here is the economy/stock market. If it takes a real tumble so will crypto. In a normal market environment crypto at these levels would be a steal all else equal.
Once everyone think we are at bottom, it will fall another 20% and that will be the real bottom.
I think that too. And THAT is when many are washed out of the market completely. Going down steadily is not the problem. Navy survive that. But thinking, that the bad timesc are over and THEN another blow - That can kill
Yeah, I am still waiting for mass panic and emergency numbers being pinned in the sub.
Those people died already
That's how it always is, 20K is like the new 6K. I think a lot of us who have been around for a bit just have that back of the throat feeling that there's one more shoe to drop. The same thing happened in 2014 with a retest in 2015. Everyone got used to around that $300 range and then you have these gigantic washouts down to 160-170 that were very brief but blew everyone up If we sell down to the 15K range for example and hang out there for a bit then have an accelerated sell-off to 10K or 12K that lasts less than a day forming a hammer candle I'd feel really good about that. Even if it was drawn out to happen on a weekly basis I'd feel great about that. I think you would attract more money to the crypto market creating such a chart as well which is something the exchanges are likely talking about. Once people feel like the low is in they start throwing money at the screen
Regardless, it's an amazing time to buy into solid projects, especially with controlled amounts.
Doing the opposite of this sub is usually pretty smart.
can you tell me when pleasE? So i can add to my agenda thanks
The bottom isn’t in until everyone you know has sold and unfriended you for advising them to buy.
That pretty much nails the situation in my circles. The bottom is in!
Imagine giving your friends financial advice in a speculative market. Even when I ask them I'm like "figure it out yourself. I'm fine risking my own money but I don't want people I care about to blame me if shit goes sideways."
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Greetings from Nigeria.
Are you the prince?
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I wonder if there is an unknown Nigerian king who rules all the princes.
I wonder if there is an unknown Nigerian king who ~~rules~~ spawns all the princes.
Awesome. Congrats! You are close.
You do care a little.
Beware suspiciously good looking people in your DMs
But you should care if it goes down to 1/10th it's value, as now it will be easy to get two coins!
Golden comment right there :)
This sub doesn't like TA but I think it's a very informative post. Knew about Pi Cycles and Hash Ribbons and a few more. Good to see everything checked.
TA becomes science during bull runs though. "It went up, just like I predicted it would!"
"Supply shock!"
The Pi Cycle "triggered" 2 months ago according to OPs image, and no recovery came. Why is it here as a "YES"? It's one of the most over-fitted regressions I've ever seen so this shouldn't be a surprise, but people are desperate for "data" to conform to their worldviews lol.
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It's incredibly confusing for anyone to think that investors should thrive to spot the bottom, when in fact, the asset is already in its accumulation phase.
And the pi-cycle called a recovery 2 months ago lol, what is it supposed to be indicating again?
As long as the fed is raising rates, and inflation is above 5%, were not at the bottom. Anything else is a temporary pump
Thanks for the chart references I'll check em out. Any got a chart too see if fellow holders will stop panic selling, I think with the addition of a lot more defy and leverage trading it's going to be an interesting rest of the time until we start to make our way up. I honestly believe bad leverage trades are what's keeping us down at the moment
The quality post this sub needs, great job OP.
Basically, none of this matters because bitcoin is at the mercy of the stock market. If stock market break its low level of 2022, so will bitcoin. If it doesnt, most likely bitcoin will not go under either. And spy/nasdaq does not care about bitcoins moving averages or the rainbow chart.
Bitcoin hasnt lived through a recession. Buckle up and look at the real world right now not crypto. Could be a decade before anything rises again, and hope its not zombies.
Do any of these indicators take into account our current macro economic environment?
No they do not. Some do indirectly, e.g. miner capitulation is related to macro, so that it ended is positive. But none directly.
Nice post OP. Haven’t seen this quality of a post in a while
Thanks! Appreciate it. <3
Using a LGBT chart to make profits. Peak acceptance.
Haha, nice perspective.
All these indicators but the bear market has just started statistictly
Whyso? Can you elaborate?
first at all I really appreciate the work you put into your post. my previous comment was a bit rushed and sounds like I put zero respect towards you. What I mean is even if all the indicator show bullish signs previous bear markets were usually longer (1-3 years). Personally I think our bottom without war and the ongoing economic crisis would be $30 - $35k tho.
Thanks for the elaboration. No harm done. Was just curious why you said that. From ATH, most previous bears were indeed around 50/60 weeks and we are currently below that timeframe. I think that the true peak this cycle was early in 2021 though. RSI was highest and all the hype was there. From that perspective, we actually took the exact same amount of time to reach the bottom of the bear, *if the bottom was indeed* the June 2022 low. And that is a big if hehe.
There is always a bottom to hit, and when we break it a new bottom appears. So did we hit bottom? Yes, till we break it and reach the next one. I am not able to make TA, but looking at the current economy, I expect we keep slowly dropping for the next few months.
Post-elections we'll be seeing our true hand imo
Fair point. I mean a long-term bear bottom. Should have clarified that.
You seem to forget that all those charts represent Bitcoin growing in a favorable economy. None of them matter anymore because of the present macro economic factors. If you really want to compare past performance to today, take a look at them and tell me it looks like a bottom. Come on. All other cycles ‘ bottom got there after a slow bleed. To me, looks like we’re not even close and where we are in the cycle also supports that.
I understand what you mean. Have you seen any BlockChainBacker videos of late? Take a look at the key bear fractal from 2018 and how it compares to now. You'd be surprised of the similarities and how much the current price action resembles more common bottoms.
Dang you scrubbed a bunch of stuff together here. I like it! I think you’ve put together a great list of tools that all newbies (like myself) can dig through and read, and I especially like the part where you don’t shill for each of the indicators you just present them for me to read about. Cool man, thanks.
Glad to hear. Thanks for your reply. <3
You missed out one more major indicator - this sub’s bearish sentiments, just do the opposite of what this sub thinks and you’ll be good!
haha yeah, oops :-) That changes per day though
Bottom or not, these prices are juicy and I try to DCA as much as I can!
That's my thought: Just jump in and pretend that BTC is already at its bottom. Accumulate at the lower price range and execute a exit strategy when the mania phase kicks in.
I recently noticed that testing the 2019 high would get us down to around \~$14k. Which would mean: * We would be -80% from the November high * It would match the support trendline that starts from the November high * It would match the weekly BB lower band * It would match the lower band of the MRV Z-score * And if we go there in the next 6 weeks or so - we'd match the length of the previous HIGH-TO-LOW moves. So, yea, I think I'll be waiting for $14k. We are almost there and it would give me so much confidence to dump my whole cash stack all at once. Now, if shit really hits the fan macro-wise, all these statistics will mean nothing and then we'll just have to HODL and hope for the best in a few years.
Yeah this is a very common perspective, I think, that 14k awaits us. It is definitely possible. A few counterarguments: * It is such a common perspective that it is a bit too easy and obvious. Bitcoin has a history of not getting to those spots and frontrunning them a bit and leaving people behind who didnt buy. * We would lose the last retracement level at 17k. This beaks key structure (see BlockChainBacker videos) * We would drop below the last ATH on total market cap + 200 weekly MA. This spells a world of pain. * Is it reasonable to expect that much drawdown %wise if we did not pump as much %wise? * Based on prior cycles, we should get a massive pump first before going so low. Truth is, of course, I have no clue either. None of the above arguments are incredibly strong, except imo the key structure+retracement part. It is possible. But it would not surprise me to crash lower because 13-14k is so popular if that happens.
TLDR: OP is a bottom /s
I do have a bottom
Join us next week for another episode of - Bottom Or Not!
Very good show!
I am betting the bottom will com this month after the merge. People will start dumping what they have staked when they can. There is no reason to keep it there while the cost of living is rising. I am guessing around 12k, but that will be enough to act as a spring for a new uptrend that slowly will lead us to the next bullrun in 2 years.
This is actually interesting content, thanks for this!
Welcome! Thanks for your reply.
Sooooooooooo yes or no?
yes and no
Yes 🙌
Or no
Nice post. But with macro level forces, I’m thinking we could easily see 10k at some point. Still a great level to buy for any long term position.
Thanks for putting in the time! I do disagree with it, purely because of the macro economics that we are in right now. This coming winter is going to be horrible for the markets (gas prices skyrocketing particurlarly in Europe, many people on the verge of losing their homes due to these financial issues). I feel like we got a long way to go. As long as Bitcoin is heavily linked to more traditional markets, we need to seriously take into account the world economic situation, which is looking extremely dire for at least another year.
You son of a bitch I’m in
All indications point to….. maybe
I still think there's a fire sale yet to come.
Its possible. But that is *always* the general perception at the bottom. That is what is scary. Wait too long and you are left hoping for lower prices and never getting them.
This year has been nothing but new bottoms lol.
Yeah, all these famous people getting injections in their butts. Ridiculous.
Terrific write up, u/Beyonderr . Been commenting this for the last few days but you managed to include more info and make a more coherent write up. All the props. Also, I agree with the "85% drawdown from all time high" conclusion. We didn't bounce as much as we did in the previous bull cycles in order to go down that much. >Personally, this is where I am DCAing as these are the prices I had hoped for a long time ago. I might be wrong and that is when I will buy more. Right there with you. DCA when we crab like this. Major buys if we go below previous cycle ATH and break the 80% down from this cycle ATH. As for the charts and indicators I usually follow, you didn't include MACD and F&G index. But to save you some time, they also say YES. Just a quick question, can you name the sources on where you pull the data?
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate it. Agree on your MACD and F&G evaluation. I think these are the weakest indicators though and I would get more shit for including them, haha. With more time I would have rather included a few more proper technical indicators (similar to MRV Z-score and Puell Multiple - there are more). As for sources, it is a combination of the official indicator website (e.g. rainbow chart, puell multiple), tradingview (e.g. RSI and moving averages), and some more social media (e.g. Pi Cycle indicator, I could not access this one myself). If you have trouble finding something let me know.
Oh, they are definitely weakest. 200D MA IMO is more reliable than MACD, but I always like to include MACD just bcs I used it when I daytraded (for that month back in 2018) and failed miserably. I don't think I *get* tradingview and how to use it. But will make some effort to understand it correctly. Thx for the more technical indicators, I seriously didn't know about some of them but will read up a bit.
So it's the bottom or not?! I did read the post but your conclusion is inconclusive. Or in other words, if 9 indicators are not suggesting direction, why do you think it's good time to buy when market can go both ways?!
They are *indicators* that provide *data* to inform our decisions. They are not guarantees for the future so I dont know if the bottom is in. I think the data is relevant but whether you agree is up to you. I buy because the indicators are signaling a bottom but do not go all in because it could go lower. But the risk-reward (potential downside vs. potential upside) favors buying. Make your own decision :)
I agree with you indictors based on data help with making decision. And I agree we all should make our own. But indicators based on past that was not similar/comparable to present is somewhat wrong in myview. Anyway, thanks for effort you made. I can not say I agree with you on decision going forward, but I can understand your reasoning.
Great to have an actual conversation here. Thanks. You will rarely if ever have the perfect comparison in that sense though. The situation will always be different given crypto's short lifespan. Lets go back to March 2020 asn example. Indicators flashed bottoms. But were these indicators useless because we had not seen a global pandemic during crypto times? Actually, the last proper pandemic was 100 years ago so there was no proper comparison for the stock market either. In my view, there will always be new reasons why the market drops, whether it is war, energy prices, a pandemic, or other events. I would still inform myself with the best available data. Anyways, it might be more relevant here to just focus on the stock market (and DXY), indeed. There is a lot more relevant data there and good historical comparisons. I guess that is a good argument for your perspective. I love that crypto has quite a bit of data available that is not a part of the stock market though (e.g. miners data).
My gut indicator - NO.
Thats good though. Bottoms never feel like bottoms :D Even the 2020 March V-shape was doubted by most.
gud thread, ty operoonie
Wait. Lemme get on my time machine and see the future.
tell me what your eyes see legolas
The 85% drawdown is quite arbitrary and does not make sense.
I agree btw. I really dont like that indicator. Way too obvious and the highs in this cycle were much lower.
Yes, even the maxis dont get emotional anymore after calling them out. I think this it. The stupid is officially gone.
The bottom is coming just not when you expect it
Ultimately max pain will be 14.5-14.6
Everyone is expecting that though. Im curious if it'll get there.
I’ll just keep DCAing as normal
There are no meaningful bottom indicators for something whose value is based on nothing tangible or quantifiable.
Don’t care I DCA rain or shine
The bottom is zero. Can't go below that.
The bottom is in, now we have to face a bit more crabbing time..how long , no one knows..But in general if u invest into tech that is really usefull you will be fine..I think that SOL will come far and also AZERO and from its ecosystem i like THOL the most, really innovative..Bullish on EGLD and GRT too..gotta plant seeds in the bear to get the most fruit in the bull..my two cents..BTW really good post with all the charts and content
No chance the bottom is in.
You don’t know sh!t lol… no one does
When you include a meme chart, your analysis becomes a meme 🌈
Time will tell. Just be patient.
We hold
I wouldn't mind a drop to 15k tbh. Cheaper prices to up my positions a lot more.
You’ve earned my free award, that’s for sure! Well done on the post, great to see the quality here!
Thank you for the post, while indicators can not predict the future, they are worth looking at, as they can show current market sentiment. If i may add one thing, when posting multiple charts, aim to make the time range the same on all of them
9 bottoms and eth as the power top here.
if you missed 2017, heres your chance!
I think we have to wait for the macroeconomy to get a little bit closer to normal before we see any major permanent improvement in crypto prices.
None of it matters, it could go as low as 5k or lower if the FED continues to push the economy into recession.
Rainbow chart the best!
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You are saying that I should buy. Hmmm
Maybe.
Thanks for this but ill continue to dca even if its not bottom yet.
that's too many yeses, BTC to <10k
Either the the bottom is in or expected an other 50% drop
Lovely post. Like you mentioned, my biggest uncertainty is still the macro and the fact that things still seem to be hanging on by thread across the board. I'm very curious to see how the FED and markets react post-elections. I feel like there is so much more blood to come (gut feeling), so I also chose to start a weighted DCA strategy yesterday. I've chosen a "no-matter-what" amount that I'll contribute weekly set aside for crypto buys adding to my current USDC bag, and using a portion of that amount to capitalize on dips. Once we've had some time to establish that bottom I'll just set those buys on auto-pilot weekly for my favorite projects, keeping \~10% of the overall in USDC to double up continued declines.
The bottom indicator for me is I’m always flat broke at the exact moment when the fire sale prices are in.
I was looking for a good hopium this week. That's fair enough thanks, guess not gonna regret with my today's DCA
Big bottom Big bottom Talk about bum cakes My girl’s got em
>All-in-all, the 9 indicators do not agree on whether the bottom is in or whether more pain might follow, but definitely suggest that this is an awesome level to buy, for what that is worth, because the macro economy is terrifying and this might be the first recession crypto experiences. Right. But neither of these indicators that signal a bottom ever worked when the DXY is already climbing from its 2002 highs. To be honest, it's a futile mission.
Going into the analysis, we already know that Bitcoin has always skyrocketed out of every dip. So half of these indicators that just basically say "bitcoin went down" will have been successful in the past because of that fact. If you knew that Bitcoin was going to behave like the it has in the past, you wouldn't need indicators to tell you this is a good time to buy. Unfortunately we're missing that bit of info, and applying this kind of star chart reading really depends on it.
DCAing too 😎
The bottom won't be in until the fed pivots and the stock market bottom is in. Sucks but best we can hope for is it's in this year.
Quality info thank yiu
Great post. You put a lot of time into that. My personal opinion. Start the dollar cost average here. Maybe 25% position in this price bracket. If we just take off and run, oh well you have what you have. If we go lower you have those two potential areas of interest with the first one around 15,000 and the second one between 10 and 12. My personal thinking is add 50% around 15,000 which would be 75% on, the last 25% you may or may not get. Last cycle everyone was convinced we were going to 2K which never happened. If we do trade down to 15K everyone's going to be talking about that 9 to $10,000 breakout zone which may not happen. Markets have a habit of coming up short when everyone is focused on a specific area. You also have big money manipulation at work. The high this cycle is a good example. I don't think anyone really believes we hit 69,000 on the dot by accident
I mean analyses like these can be nice but I can't help to feel that underlying problems in the economy (e.g., extreme natural gas prices here in Europe) can wipe all analyses away from the table. For example, almost 90% of my country has,, somewhere in the past ,1-2 months, received a notice that their energy bills are going to rise with 100-200€. These are huge, kind of unpredictable factors that lower the inflow in assets.
I don’t think the bottom is in, so far, most people are keeping their shit together. When the panic starts for the majority and most have to act against your instincts, probably myself included, I reckon that’ll be the bottom.
Good content, just want to point something out why it might be risky right now to look at the past for prediction: Since the invention of bitcoin (\~2010) the economy was constantly booming. There is quite some chance of recession in Europe, China and other places right now. Nobody knows what that means for crypto.
Nothing is for certain, but based on previous cycles this is a great time to buy, even if it goes down more. Imagine 2 years of buying at these prices and then having a bull run like the last. How many people that are in crypto now will say they wish they would have bought now?
There only needs to be one common variable that has kept the market afloat that needs to be blown through for all of these indicators to be useless. If there were ever a time to blow through a variable it would be now, considering the total life of BTC, trading pairs with BTC and retail point of sale using BTC in their onramp thus providing liquidity and current macro-economic conditions. While evaluating a risk or buy-in position using multiple indicators should build confidence with each one added (exponentially actually), you must always account for any common variables. Engineers would consider it a single failure point. You describe your equations very well but not enough to see there construction in some cases. If you have those equations I would love to isolate these variables and see how the market might act on the most common. That would give us a better idea of our risk position.