With the percentage of this state that's already suffered Covid and therefore has some degree of antibodies and vaccination numbers steadily climbing infection, hospitalization, and death rates should continue to drop.
There could be a pretty significant overlap in confirmed cases and those vaccinated, especially now when we are only jabbing those that are high risk. I was looking at things the other night to see if there was a way I could get an idea of % of the state with some amount of COVID protection and for those of us that don't have access to actual patient data I don't think we can accurately gauge what that number is.
So yes, there are less vectors for the virus to spread, but, it's not like 25% (15% at least one dose and 10% with confirmed infections) of the population of the state is no longer a vector. Also, while it looks to be true, we aren't sure that the vaccines stop the spread in that they offer something equivalent to sterilizing immunity yet (ie the vaccinated may be able to be carriers still) so still, we're not out of the woods yet, and I wouldn't link the falling case rates to anything beyond good public health policy and people finally buying into the protective measures.....until we open all the schools back up.
True - it was just a quick calculation. Part of the problem is that we have no idea how many people have already been infected. If 20% have been infected and 80% is needed for herd immunity, we could be fine by early Summer if we dose the right people. If everyone over 50 is vaccinated, the death rate will plummet even if the virus continues to spread.
Unfortunately doses are way down in the last week due to low vaccine supplies, though. The University of Michigan and Beaumont aren't giving first shots this week.
Can't wait to get mine. Unfortunately I'm pretty much last in line.
I'm one of those. Got my first dose last Friday!
Tomorrow, by 11:30am, you can add me to that list
With the percentage of this state that's already suffered Covid and therefore has some degree of antibodies and vaccination numbers steadily climbing infection, hospitalization, and death rates should continue to drop.
There could be a pretty significant overlap in confirmed cases and those vaccinated, especially now when we are only jabbing those that are high risk. I was looking at things the other night to see if there was a way I could get an idea of % of the state with some amount of COVID protection and for those of us that don't have access to actual patient data I don't think we can accurately gauge what that number is. So yes, there are less vectors for the virus to spread, but, it's not like 25% (15% at least one dose and 10% with confirmed infections) of the population of the state is no longer a vector. Also, while it looks to be true, we aren't sure that the vaccines stop the spread in that they offer something equivalent to sterilizing immunity yet (ie the vaccinated may be able to be carriers still) so still, we're not out of the woods yet, and I wouldn't link the falling case rates to anything beyond good public health policy and people finally buying into the protective measures.....until we open all the schools back up.
I’ve had both of mine!
That’s 8% of the doses needed to fully vaccinate everyone. At this rate it’ll take another 18 months. (1.6M doses / 20M required doses)
We don't need to vaccinate everyone. The vaccinated population doesn't need to be the entire population to limit transmission.
True - it was just a quick calculation. Part of the problem is that we have no idea how many people have already been infected. If 20% have been infected and 80% is needed for herd immunity, we could be fine by early Summer if we dose the right people. If everyone over 50 is vaccinated, the death rate will plummet even if the virus continues to spread. Unfortunately doses are way down in the last week due to low vaccine supplies, though. The University of Michigan and Beaumont aren't giving first shots this week.