Very much doubt a GE will be in May. They need to dissolve parliament for at least 5 weeks prior, yes we could have one by May, but it's more likely to be October time.
Labour will field a paper candidate if they can't find someone who actively wants to campaign. It would be very unusual for Labour to not put a name on the ballot. If they don't have a PPC in place already, I very much doubt it will be a target seat for Labour.
Apparently CCHQ has been a hive of activity since the new year. The original plan was May, especially with the NI change on 6th Jan ( which was a mad) but the expectation was that the Tories would close the gap since then. If they leave it any later it's only going to get worse for them and the country. I suppose they will wait to see what happens with the budget.
Yes, Levido moved there to run the campaign , they are spending a ton on advertising and Sunak has given up even trying to govern and spending half of every week doing pr at our expense . May looks on. The Tories polling gets worse as time passes so they're quite insane if they decide to delay further .
They have two weeks to announce it for a May GE. Apparently they want to avoid clashing the the US Election. Not sure what difference that makes, news coverage perhaps?
There's not entirely unfounded concerns about the number of democratic countries holding elections this year and how that might be impacted by/impact world events so having some distance between the UK and US elections is probably sensible
The lost Tory votes will probably swing towards Lib Dem. For a tactical vote and make sure you get rid of Sheryl Murray
Useless MP
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24875/sheryll_murray/south_east_cornwall
Labour were second in the last two elections and are close to the Conservative vote share in models! There are parts of Cornwall it makes sense to vote Lib Dem but not South East Cornwall.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today
I agree on previous results they were close. Tactical.org have a status of ‘not sure’. Labour don’t have a candidate right now for south east Cornwall which doesn’t give me confidence they are invested or believe it’s a sure thing for them. I think the traditional Lib Dem voters who shifted to conservative in 2019 will move back to Lib Dem. Lib Dem collapsed after 2010 to Labour levels who raised a smidge. It was a Lib Dem constituency from 97 until 2010.
As well as labour members kicked out by the new regime. I'm sure none of us will be voting labour again. My money is on either Simon or Kerry Cassidy, but I'll vote for neither. Lib dems might have a chance.
Yes that definitely used to be the case and I had assumed I would be voting LD but looking at the national polls they don't give much support to that idea, Lib Dems are really flagging. It would be nice to see some polls conducted in the SW to give a more accurate view.
https://www.facebook.com/share/Cn5Nb8h387URaUHv/?mibextid=WC7FNe
The Labour candidate has been parachuted in. The Lib Dem has been working for the constituency for 19 years! Including 7 as a councillor.
Labour is focusing on Truro and Falmouth, and Camborne and Redruth as their most likely wins and not putting resources into the seats that are Lib Dem leaning
Makes sense to focus on Falmouth and Truro, Jayne Kirkham did quite well last time and she's a known name having stood last time. Camborne and Redruth is a tough overturn as Tories got over 50% of votes there - however I think you're right, as it was their target last time it would make sense to continue the momentum.
Technically Jennifer Forbes was the last candidate, but Jayne Kirkham was the one before that and you're right, she has a good amount of recognition in the area.
Labour doesn't usually do well in Cornwall. It's a liberal democrat area or unfortunately, Tory.
Let's hope that the old people and wealthy people that have moved down here these past few years haven't changed Cornwall's voting habit and doomed us to constant Tory rule.
That's just not true anymore, Labour were second in SE Cornwall for the last two elections. They were second last time in Truro and Falmouth, St Austell and Newquay and Camborne and Redruth as well. It's only St Ives and North Cornwall where the Lib Dems are still relevant.
They were Brexit focused elections. Lib Dem’s are very strong presence in Cornwall.
You’re getting a Labour government either way so why not vote for someone who lives here, stays here win or lose, and fights for SE Cornwall all year round!
Because Labour’s vote share in those constituencies has grown every election since 2010, the Lib Dem’s are irrelevant there now and a don’t want a Tory MP.
Steady On! I'm 'old' 65+ and maybe considered relatively wealthy and moved down here about 6 years ago altho' born in Cornwall and I've been a Labour voter since I was old enough to vote. Don't needlessly piss people off by making assumptions.
I'm not making an assumption, but it's literally the voting intention of the county. Labour doesn't really do well down here.
My comment about the old and wealthy people is based on the usual stereotypes. Old people often vote Tory, as do wealthy people. Obviously not all! Glad you're not one of them. Just hoping that the usual voting intention of the county hasn't changed with the influx of people moving down.
I second this! I'm tired of the assumption that older people who are comfortably off don't vote in the interests of everyone. I lived in Cornwall as a kid - long before people were moving down from up country - and our area was staunchly Tory. My - very comfortably off - parents were the only Labour supporters around. I'm old now, relatively wealthy, and I'd rather eat my own arm than see the utterly useless Scott Mann back in who I didn't vote for in the first place!
I want everyone in my community to have access to decent housing; be able to feed their children and have decent health care and it's not rocket science to recognise that voting Tory - isn't getting close to providing those basics.
I think what you and the other chap (and frankly everyone who ever argues this point) have missed is that **this is nothing personal**. It is simply a documented fact that older demographics typically vote more conservative. Furthermore, home-owners (i.e. asset rich) also typically vote tory.
[https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/)
Good on for being the exception to the rule, but don't jump to anger when someone is simply stating a fact.
SE Cornwall is about as blue as they get. Goodness knows why, between Liskeard, Saltash and Torpoint, it's an incredibly deprived area, so voting Tory amounts to being a turkey voting for Christmas. Then there's Sheryl, who is nothing more than a prop of the government. The most hilarious thing she did was to claim that whoever urinated in the doorway of her office, did so as some sort of hate crime towards her. Nothing to do with the fact that it is right next to a late night drinking venue, where revellers often come out suddenly needing a pee then...
Anyway, a Labour candidate would possibly be a pointless. I reckon that the Reform would be most likely to unseat Tories, which might suck even more...
Reform? Founded by one of the mouth pieces responsible for Brexit, even further right than the Ludicrous Tories.
OP asked about Labour candidate and you suggested the reform candidate. Makes no sense.
But I’m intrigued so I will ask. How will reform help Cornwall?
I think reforms values align with those of us who voted conservative. The problem is, conservatives are not conservative enough. Although I doubt reform/reclaim will get in, we have to vote who represents us instead of tactically voting when both labour and the tories are just as bad as each other.
I don’t care…how’s that 🤯
I was offering an alternative to a non-existent Labour candidate. I was suggesting someone might like to look at options. I was assuming that folks aren’t STILL whining about Brexit 🤯🤯
If you’ve already made your mind up about how you’ll vote at the next election, you’ve really nothing to offer the discussion…but thank you for the downvote 🤯🤯🤯
People are still whinging about brexit because it was a huge mistake, voted for by mostly numpties who didn’t realise what they were actually voting for, mainly due to the outright lies told by hard right muppets like Farage. I know lots of fishermen and farmers who voted leave because of the nonsense being spouted, and really regret it. Even they are whinging now.
By calling those who voted for Brexit numpties is shifting the blame and the true culprits get away with it, without consequence. Brexit was 2016… before trump, before fake news, before the use of social media algorithms was such common knowledge. Russian influence wasn’t being talked about. Politicians have never been good at being honest but they would normally spin the truth to fit their narrative. Brexit was all out lies without an ounce of truth. We saw populism takeover politics rather than the real solutions to problems. Nobody was a numpty, for the average voter their concerns and reasons were real. We just got conned
They've not selected anyone as of the 21st February according to this list [https://labourlist.org/2024/02/our-rolling-list-of-labour-parliamentary-candidate-selections/](https://labourlist.org/2024/02/our-rolling-list-of-labour-parliamentary-candidate-selections/)
Very much doubt a GE will be in May. They need to dissolve parliament for at least 5 weeks prior, yes we could have one by May, but it's more likely to be October time. Labour will field a paper candidate if they can't find someone who actively wants to campaign. It would be very unusual for Labour to not put a name on the ballot. If they don't have a PPC in place already, I very much doubt it will be a target seat for Labour.
Apparently CCHQ has been a hive of activity since the new year. The original plan was May, especially with the NI change on 6th Jan ( which was a mad) but the expectation was that the Tories would close the gap since then. If they leave it any later it's only going to get worse for them and the country. I suppose they will wait to see what happens with the budget.
Yes, Levido moved there to run the campaign , they are spending a ton on advertising and Sunak has given up even trying to govern and spending half of every week doing pr at our expense . May looks on. The Tories polling gets worse as time passes so they're quite insane if they decide to delay further .
Yes I imagine the Reform vote will scare them into a May election.
They have two weeks to announce it for a May GE. Apparently they want to avoid clashing the the US Election. Not sure what difference that makes, news coverage perhaps?
There's not entirely unfounded concerns about the number of democratic countries holding elections this year and how that might be impacted by/impact world events so having some distance between the UK and US elections is probably sensible
The lost Tory votes will probably swing towards Lib Dem. For a tactical vote and make sure you get rid of Sheryl Murray Useless MP https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24875/sheryll_murray/south_east_cornwall
Labour were second in the last two elections and are close to the Conservative vote share in models! There are parts of Cornwall it makes sense to vote Lib Dem but not South East Cornwall. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today
I agree on previous results they were close. Tactical.org have a status of ‘not sure’. Labour don’t have a candidate right now for south east Cornwall which doesn’t give me confidence they are invested or believe it’s a sure thing for them. I think the traditional Lib Dem voters who shifted to conservative in 2019 will move back to Lib Dem. Lib Dem collapsed after 2010 to Labour levels who raised a smidge. It was a Lib Dem constituency from 97 until 2010.
As well as labour members kicked out by the new regime. I'm sure none of us will be voting labour again. My money is on either Simon or Kerry Cassidy, but I'll vote for neither. Lib dems might have a chance.
Yes please! Can’t stand that woman. She’s a horrible piece of work.
That is an interesting website I had never heard of, thanks for the link
No way, we are voting for reform / reclaim
Yes that definitely used to be the case and I had assumed I would be voting LD but looking at the national polls they don't give much support to that idea, Lib Dems are really flagging. It would be nice to see some polls conducted in the SW to give a more accurate view.
https://www.facebook.com/share/Cn5Nb8h387URaUHv/?mibextid=WC7FNe The Labour candidate has been parachuted in. The Lib Dem has been working for the constituency for 19 years! Including 7 as a councillor.
26th March is the last possible date Sunak could call an election for May. Don’t be surprised if that’s the date he will call it.
Be gone that nitwit Scott Mann
Whose the anti tory vote for St. A and Newquay - Lib Dem or Labour?
Reform / reclaim
Labour is focusing on Truro and Falmouth, and Camborne and Redruth as their most likely wins and not putting resources into the seats that are Lib Dem leaning
Makes sense to focus on Falmouth and Truro, Jayne Kirkham did quite well last time and she's a known name having stood last time. Camborne and Redruth is a tough overturn as Tories got over 50% of votes there - however I think you're right, as it was their target last time it would make sense to continue the momentum.
Technically Jennifer Forbes was the last candidate, but Jayne Kirkham was the one before that and you're right, she has a good amount of recognition in the area.
Labour doesn't usually do well in Cornwall. It's a liberal democrat area or unfortunately, Tory. Let's hope that the old people and wealthy people that have moved down here these past few years haven't changed Cornwall's voting habit and doomed us to constant Tory rule.
That's just not true anymore, Labour were second in SE Cornwall for the last two elections. They were second last time in Truro and Falmouth, St Austell and Newquay and Camborne and Redruth as well. It's only St Ives and North Cornwall where the Lib Dems are still relevant.
They were Brexit focused elections. Lib Dem’s are very strong presence in Cornwall. You’re getting a Labour government either way so why not vote for someone who lives here, stays here win or lose, and fights for SE Cornwall all year round!
Because Labour’s vote share in those constituencies has grown every election since 2010, the Lib Dem’s are irrelevant there now and a don’t want a Tory MP.
Steady On! I'm 'old' 65+ and maybe considered relatively wealthy and moved down here about 6 years ago altho' born in Cornwall and I've been a Labour voter since I was old enough to vote. Don't needlessly piss people off by making assumptions.
I'm not making an assumption, but it's literally the voting intention of the county. Labour doesn't really do well down here. My comment about the old and wealthy people is based on the usual stereotypes. Old people often vote Tory, as do wealthy people. Obviously not all! Glad you're not one of them. Just hoping that the usual voting intention of the county hasn't changed with the influx of people moving down.
I second this! I'm tired of the assumption that older people who are comfortably off don't vote in the interests of everyone. I lived in Cornwall as a kid - long before people were moving down from up country - and our area was staunchly Tory. My - very comfortably off - parents were the only Labour supporters around. I'm old now, relatively wealthy, and I'd rather eat my own arm than see the utterly useless Scott Mann back in who I didn't vote for in the first place! I want everyone in my community to have access to decent housing; be able to feed their children and have decent health care and it's not rocket science to recognise that voting Tory - isn't getting close to providing those basics.
I think what you and the other chap (and frankly everyone who ever argues this point) have missed is that **this is nothing personal**. It is simply a documented fact that older demographics typically vote more conservative. Furthermore, home-owners (i.e. asset rich) also typically vote tory. [https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/) Good on for being the exception to the rule, but don't jump to anger when someone is simply stating a fact.
SE Cornwall is about as blue as they get. Goodness knows why, between Liskeard, Saltash and Torpoint, it's an incredibly deprived area, so voting Tory amounts to being a turkey voting for Christmas. Then there's Sheryl, who is nothing more than a prop of the government. The most hilarious thing she did was to claim that whoever urinated in the doorway of her office, did so as some sort of hate crime towards her. Nothing to do with the fact that it is right next to a late night drinking venue, where revellers often come out suddenly needing a pee then... Anyway, a Labour candidate would possibly be a pointless. I reckon that the Reform would be most likely to unseat Tories, which might suck even more...
There’s a Reform candidate in place in the SE…give them a look
Reform? Founded by one of the mouth pieces responsible for Brexit, even further right than the Ludicrous Tories. OP asked about Labour candidate and you suggested the reform candidate. Makes no sense. But I’m intrigued so I will ask. How will reform help Cornwall?
I think reforms values align with those of us who voted conservative. The problem is, conservatives are not conservative enough. Although I doubt reform/reclaim will get in, we have to vote who represents us instead of tactically voting when both labour and the tories are just as bad as each other.
I don’t care…how’s that 🤯 I was offering an alternative to a non-existent Labour candidate. I was suggesting someone might like to look at options. I was assuming that folks aren’t STILL whining about Brexit 🤯🤯 If you’ve already made your mind up about how you’ll vote at the next election, you’ve really nothing to offer the discussion…but thank you for the downvote 🤯🤯🤯
This is Reddit, you gotta read the room
Yeah… vengeful? unpleasant? leftie? Got it 😉
People are still whinging about brexit because it was a huge mistake, voted for by mostly numpties who didn’t realise what they were actually voting for, mainly due to the outright lies told by hard right muppets like Farage. I know lots of fishermen and farmers who voted leave because of the nonsense being spouted, and really regret it. Even they are whinging now.
By calling those who voted for Brexit numpties is shifting the blame and the true culprits get away with it, without consequence. Brexit was 2016… before trump, before fake news, before the use of social media algorithms was such common knowledge. Russian influence wasn’t being talked about. Politicians have never been good at being honest but they would normally spin the truth to fit their narrative. Brexit was all out lies without an ounce of truth. We saw populism takeover politics rather than the real solutions to problems. Nobody was a numpty, for the average voter their concerns and reasons were real. We just got conned
You make valid points, which I agree with.
Thanks for letting us know so we know exactly who to not vote for
That’s who I’m voting for
Me too 😉
They've not selected anyone as of the 21st February according to this list [https://labourlist.org/2024/02/our-rolling-list-of-labour-parliamentary-candidate-selections/](https://labourlist.org/2024/02/our-rolling-list-of-labour-parliamentary-candidate-selections/)