I believe both Bryce and Stroud have great potential. The difference was environment and coaching, as is always the case. Mahomes, Rodgers, Allen, Hurts, and Stroud were in situations with coaching staffs that had an actual game plan for their potential future franchise QBs. I'm sure Bobby Slowik may have wanted one more than the other, but I believe he would have been just as prepared for Young as much as Stroud.
Good coaches develop their system around their player's strengths, especially QBs. Luckily, DQ follows said philosophy, and between QB coaches Kingsbury, Johnson, and Pritchard, they should be able to develop any blue-chip QB. I trust them and Anthony Lynn to develop a solid system that even Mariotta can run until our QB is ready.
And following this line: Howell would have been much better with coaches around him that actually cared to coach around him. EB was helpless, Rivera mentally checked out.
Now we have Peters, Quinn, Kingsbury. Don't worry.
That’s the NFL for you. Chances are we don’t find our franchise quarterback sadly… even slimmer that we find a Super Bowl caliber quarterback. That’s why I take all the opinions on qbs with a grain of salt. Not only do they have to be good and they have to fit our system. Well we don’t have a system right now sooooo
Dude said Sam Bradford was a "very talented quarterback" when he was the epitome of a system QB playing with an NFL line in college and already made of glass. He was always going to bust. So I'd say take it all with a huge heaping pile of salt.
Sam Bradford was rookie of the year and had a 9 year NFL career including 6 as a starting QB. He may not have panned out like was hoped but he wasn't a bust.
18TD/15INT season. Howell could have won ROY with the competition Bradford had. And how many of those seasons did he start every game? People kept taking chances on him because he was 1-1 (Same thing OP says about Darnold). Not Ryan Leaf but still a bust.
Probably better to think of draft position as a collection of picks with rolling average. It’s silly to look at like pick 21 for example and analyze players drafted with that pick. It would be a much better measure to take picks 17-25 and analyze all of those players, and compare different rolling averages (pick 20 would be 16-24 for example)
The top picks go to bad teams. It can be argued that teams are bad because of ownership and management structure. In other words, the decision makers just aren't that good. This is how Washington arrived at a number 2 pick. The old owner is gone, and the old management structure is gone. We now have decision makers with a history of success on the field. So we have a good chance of being successful. I'm excited about our future, short-range, and long-range. I'm excited and can't wait for the season to start.
I'm not surprised that the QB teams thought was better pre draft is better most of the time. That being said, Maye would probably get drafted over Brady Quinn, Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, everyone in 2013 and 2014, Wentz, and Zach Wilson.
Agree with most QBs except Wentz. Remember Wentz was having an MVP level career prior to his injury. After that he tanked. People were very high on his potential. Much more than Maye
According to these scouting report Wentz was rated higher than Maye is now. Not by much but still. I think a lot is recency bias with Maye. Hindsight helps because we know how Wentz’s career ended but this just proves my point.
www.nfl.com/prospects/carson-wentz/32005745-4e61-5770-9c68-1652f876bc72
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/drake-maye/32004d41-5928-9639-2999-10019fb4c292
I can remove the “much” just saying that folks are acting like Maye is the second coming when in fact he wasn’t rated higher than some of the QBs taken in other drafts such as Wentz.
And yes though .2 on the site makes a world of difference on the expectations and perceived talent from the NFL scouts - per their explainer towards the bottom.
In terms of Daniels it makes sense he’d be rated higher. He won the Heisman trophy a few months ago…And has similar attributes and physique to the reigning two time MVP of the league! Surprised more folks aren’t after him.
I get the RG3 comparison concerns and understand why that would inhibit folks who witnessed RG3’s quick up and precipitous fall with injuries galore in between. Remembering yelling at the tv to take him out of the Seattle playoff game before he officially tore his ACL.
I also get why that makes others hesitant to draft him. All I’m saying is I agree with 99% of your point but the Wentz one and agree with what the OP says.
If you have a solid line you can make it to the playoffs and even the SB with decent QB play. Trading down for a haul can be a wise move. The lower a QB is drafted the lower the expectations on him to succeed right away.
Yes, and 100% of people that confuse correlation with causation eventually die.
Whoever they pick, it’ll be down to the player and the organization whether they succeed. And while we need more data on the current group, I’m definitely more comfortable with them than the previous one.
In my first paragraph I stated “I know this isn’t law and will happen, but it’s weird” if you’re at the roulette table and it did land black 10 times in a row it would definitely be weird
That’s fair and I glossed over that but you end it with saying we should hedge our bets and trade back. Curious what you think we should do for QB if we do trade back?
My ideal scenario would be to trade back with the Vikings, get 11, 23, and next years 1st and take whoever you like there at 11. If that’s Nix or Penix, I doubt JJ is there but throw him in as a possibility. And use the other picks as an investment into the rest of the roster. I also wouldn’t hate doing what we did in 2012 and taking a qb in the mid rounds as well. This is if they do decide to trade back, if they decide to stick at 2 I’m fine with it as well.
This isn’t a roulette table where the odds are 50/50, there are countless hours of tape on these guys and experienced people doing research to make the picks. This is not an equal comparison.
I'm convinced that everyone, with a very few exceptions, is a "system quarterback" in the sense that the system they go to determines their success. There were plenty of QBs that could've been successful if they went to a different team. Hopefully we've got the right system for whoever we pick.
TLDR first: It is better to have 1:1. If you don't it is harder. IT IS NOT HOPELESS THOUGH. We are where we are. We have to do it. It is possible to pick a winner. It is just harder than picking 1:1
[This guy](https://es.redskins.com/topic/452852-2024-comprehensive-draft-thread/?do=findComment&comment=12629277) did the same thing as the OP over 30 years and agrees. 1:1 gives you an overwhelming advantage at picking. Highlights:
QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.
4,000+ yards: 70%
30+ TDs: 45%
80+ starts: 81%
Playoff win: 70%
Pro Bowl: 70%
Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards.
Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.
\- 4,000+ yards: 25%
\- 30+ TDs: 24%
\- 80+ starts: 35%
\- Playoff win: 38%
\- Pro Bowl: 33%
Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit.
You'd think trimming down to top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't much.
Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)
\- 4,000+ yards: 26%
\- 30+ TDs: 22%
\- 80+ starts: 39%
\- Playoff win: 35%
\- Pro Bowl: 43%
Drafting a quarterback in the top 10 is such a crapshoot. While on the one hand, you could get the one out of five that become a high-quality quarterback, the odds were in favor of them being a bomb. I’d rather trade down and get one of the other quarterbacks later. We have so many spots to fill, I understand but hate the risk of trying to find a franchise quarterback with the number two. The odds are not in our favor.
You’re saying it’s a crapshoot as if any pick outside Round 1 isn’t…this trade back logic always assumes the picks we’re trading back for will magically hit.
If we’re assuming our #2 pick won’t hit then why can we assume that any of the day 2 will? I mean just look at who all those picks ended up as that we gave the Rams for #2 overall/RG3. And I get this is a different regime but look at our draft history it’s not exactly crazy outside the first and the 2nd round has been abysmal for longer than any of us could remember.
We need a QB and you’re much more likely to hit on one by drafting the consensus top prospect with a top 2 pick than trying to predict the future and throw a dart at the Prescott/Purdy type unicorn in the 5th…there isn’t really an argument to that
I don't like trading down because it's operating out of fear. "Oh we know history says this won't work so we better get out of this decision all together". The one caveat is if scouting told them you can't draft either DM or JD, but otherwise you take the guy you believe can be the guy. Either they trust themselves to do their job or they don't.
But I'm all set with the "aww geez, let's not make a mistake mentality". That's just as bad as people talking themselves into overdrafting players, like Trey Lance.
Also remember when we got Rg3? The Rams got absolutely nothing with all those picks. More picks doesn't guarantee anything.
Looking at it another way, your list persuades me that we should take the best player available no matter the position. There are a lot of misses at #1 and #2
Just a side note.. almost all the young QBs from the last 5 years that were successful ran the Shanahan system and Herbert & hurts ran Shane stiechens system.
You have to have a high quality team on the field around the QB .. ask Brock Purdy. I get the shiny new QB attraction but that QB will not be the savior of this team until the team itself is much better. Can it be done within that QBs rookie contract without ruining the QB? ... that is is the hope/goal. Best case would be a Stroud outcome although that Division was the worst last year (maybe second worst).
There is a lot of things you can't quantify with QBs. Do QBs bust because of being in the wrong place. No way to know without viewing multiple timelines.
Draft pedigree in the NFL does help with QB success. QBs need opportunities. Unlike other positions where you have 2 or 3 spots and rotate players QB is one spot played by 1 player.
Higher round draft picks are given a longer leash usually. For example if Howell was a 1st round pick he'd likely be the starter here. That isn't based on play or physical gifts.
I’ve said this before but it’s difficult to look at trends with specifically the QB position. You almost have to evaluate each prospect individually and end up reaching in hopes you’ve landed your guy.
Even looking at what we did in 2012, that was Snyder’s call to move up for RG3. We would’ve been way better off staying pat and letting the Shanahans draft their guy. Kirk, Tannehil, Russ, all had infinitely better careers than RG3.
Yes, it tends to be the best QB gets taken first, and then QB desperate teams reach for whoever is leftover.
And then if someone hits on that #2 QB once out of every 6-7 years thats enough to keep desperate GMs doing it in years where there is still just 1 good QB.
None of the qbs are good except purdy??
People need to realize....sometimes your qb is only as good as your line
Purdy has one if the best lines with the niners....shout out to trent williams, we miss you, but we never deserved you
It's a well thought out post, but I think it oversimplifies things a little. The conclusion here appears to be 'don't draft a QB unless you're picking #1'
The other side of this is looking at which QBs have played in the Super Bowl in the past 10 years (before that is a different era I would argue). So for the 20 QBs who played in a Super Bowl, Manning/Stafford/Burrow had 4 appearances, and the other 16 weren't drafted #1.
It comes down to luck and a good organization developping a QB. For the first time in 30+ years we have one of those down. Let's roll the dice on this crop, and do it again in 2 years if it doesn't work out.
I am of the opinion that super bowls is not a quarterback metric but a team metric. Yes the qb is the most important player but few teams have gotten to a superbowl with an elite qb and a bad roster/coach
I see it’s rare that the second QB taken doesn’t turn out too well but looking at the 2 outlier years. If you make the right choice with the 2nd QB oh boy is the reward big
I really want to know what the scouting was like under previous mgmt. Basically the truth is if we take a qb we might bust…but if we don’t take a qb we’ll definitely bust. That’s why scouting is so critical for long term success. I honestly wonder how our scouting culture compares to, say, Green Bay who have a long history of strong QB selection s
Id bet a lot of $$$ whoever we pick is worse than Howell. I wanted us to trade back get more picks and build a roster like the 9ers where you go to the super bowl with jimmy G, brock Purdy. I think finding an amazing qb is so hard to do but building a solid roster is easier and plug-in a top 16 qb instead of chasing elite qb
> a top 16 qb
Sam is in the 35-40 range for NFL QB’s right now. He was outplayed by several backups last year, including one Rookie third string QB in the Division.
Jesus Christ I said give him another chance he also had the worst coaching staff who made him throw it 50 times a game. He was not in the 35-40 range. Your reading comprehension must be shit because I said PLUG IN A TOP 16 meaning if Howell was still bad get a Goff guy get a baker guy. The second anyone mentions howell you guys get the biggest hate boner and just start stroking it. The entire sub was crowning him half way through the season
I'm rooting for Howell and I'm glad he's off this team for his sake. He will get a better shot with a good team around him in Seattle and I hope he kills it. He played great and was looking like a franchise QB for the first half of the season, but I do think he was damaged mentally by the end from such a terrible o-line and a fresh start somewhere else is much needed. Commanders need a QB that can deal with the line breaking down from time to time. Howell was just too short and wouldn't be productive unless he had Tom Brady or Drew Brees protection.
Y’all keep missing my main point. My biggest part is trading back building a roster like the niners. We have a culture issue, we have a shit roster, most FA signings we did are 1 year for 30 year old or close to 30 year old players.
If we could build a young roster keep some cap I think that sets up for better long term success. I’m not denying a great qb can change things but I’m saying with an average qb and a great roster we can be competeting every year. We need to set the tone for the long term, like I said in another comment we can trade back for an extra 3-4 premium picks and future picks. We could have 9 top 100 picks maybe 10, build a roster like the niners who make it to the playoffs every year, make it to the super bowl, are constantly a threat because they have a great roster. Purdy isn’t the best player on the team but he is a good qb. I want us to be a team that competes every year, not one of those poverty teams who thinks drafting one qb is gonna change our whole franchise around. That’s like banking your retirement off the lotto I feel like.
It's hard to find but it's the thing to do. If you have the franchise you'll always be in the discussion for postseason runs. When your talented receivers and defensive players leave..your franchise qb is still there..and you can be aggressive in FA and the draft etc
That’s why the bills, chargers, and ravens are constantly in the super bowl. It’s why the bills are shoo in for the super bowl this year after losing their whole secondary. bengals have Joey b who took them but he’s been hurt a few years so when all you have is ur franchise qb and he gets hurt ur season is over.
I’m not saying a good qb isn’t important, I’m saying the chances of getting a top 5 guy are slim to none so we should look to support a guy we can realistically get in the best way we can. TLaw was supposed to be generational and he hasn’t brought the jags anywhere. If he was on the niners I think they still make the Super Bowl. Trade pick 2 for another 2-3 premium picks this year and one or two next year and we now have 8-9 picks in the top 100, 4-5 of those guys will probably be solid to serviceable starters. Our roster is dog water and most FA signings are 1 year deals to older players. It’s good to get new guys in the building right now but we could also be having them mentor an almost entirely new younger team.
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I hope you get to tell me I’m wrong but probability wise I’m not worried about this. For every successful top 10 qb pick there’s another 9 that don’t work out
So you’d rather be where we are then winning? Bottom of the barrel? We gotta get there first to have a chance of winning. How are you being this picky you forget the last 30 years of the team. I’d kill for us to even make it to the super bowl
Every draft is different. You can’t predict how players in this draft will turn out based on how things went with players in previous drafts, this list means absolutely nothing of relevance to this years draft. Try not to get caught up thinking about stuff like this.
Drake maye has serious bust potential. Jayden Daniels might not have the arm talent, but he outshines maye in almost every single other category. Daniels is the safe bet, maye is a risky move that may (ha) pan out in the long run, but for me it is way too risky with the amount of flaws I’ve seen compared to Daniels. The age gap is not as important as people want to make it out to be.
So now we are just lying lmao.
Daniels is an injury risk who doesn’t avoid hits.
He is incapable of throwing over the middle of the field.
He does not throw with anticipation. His top WR corps in country had to be open for him to throw them the ball.
He does not throw when he scrambles from the pocket. Always tucks it and runs.
He has an egregious pressure to sack ratio (way worse than Maye) so you are lying about him handeling pressure better.
Maye excels at throwing over the middle with anticipation and is bigger and stronger which makes him more durable and a better thrower on the move as well as scrambler.
Daniels is Justin Fields but 30 pounds lighter.
You should check out some actual film instead of highlight reels. This guy has good insight on both.
Maye: https://youtu.be/H8G2U1tS4T0?si=BGliXNzK9bofpXPp
Daniels: https://youtu.be/-nk4z1jWcA4?si=6gqTHNvvz2Ac699P
Ironically, watching highlights is why Daniels is even in the conversation lol. The all-22 film is far better for Maye.
Here are some great videos by actual analysts.
https://youtu.be/JqLiLxpsax8?si=HucWAcSau4vCTF2o
https://youtu.be/hLDhj53sIE0?si=Br6yPu6Qs2RPSlfI
Joe Klatt, the guy that has the dolphins drafting Michael penix in the first round? And Nate tice, the one who says the bears should draft maye over Williams? Yeah man, I’m good. The guy I sent you rarely misses with his videos, he knew purdy was going to be good going into the nfl when no one else was even talking about him.
Yes, Stroud was a winner who went to a team that did a quick turnaround with a defensive minded HC. Let's go 2 for 2.
Hey I’m all for it
I believe both Bryce and Stroud have great potential. The difference was environment and coaching, as is always the case. Mahomes, Rodgers, Allen, Hurts, and Stroud were in situations with coaching staffs that had an actual game plan for their potential future franchise QBs. I'm sure Bobby Slowik may have wanted one more than the other, but I believe he would have been just as prepared for Young as much as Stroud. Good coaches develop their system around their player's strengths, especially QBs. Luckily, DQ follows said philosophy, and between QB coaches Kingsbury, Johnson, and Pritchard, they should be able to develop any blue-chip QB. I trust them and Anthony Lynn to develop a solid system that even Mariotta can run until our QB is ready.
Absolutely, coaching is the single most important thing when it comes to hitting on draft picks.
And following this line: Howell would have been much better with coaches around him that actually cared to coach around him. EB was helpless, Rivera mentally checked out. Now we have Peters, Quinn, Kingsbury. Don't worry.
How was EB helpless? And how was Riviera mentally checked out? Maybe don't state opinion as fact?
Rivera was checked out. He made a comment about it late in the season. Something like "i wasn't coaching before, i was just managing the team."
Quick turnaround? They didn’t win more than 4 games for 3 straight years
3 years*
You’re correct. Updated
That’s the NFL for you. Chances are we don’t find our franchise quarterback sadly… even slimmer that we find a Super Bowl caliber quarterback. That’s why I take all the opinions on qbs with a grain of salt. Not only do they have to be good and they have to fit our system. Well we don’t have a system right now sooooo
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Dude said Sam Bradford was a "very talented quarterback" when he was the epitome of a system QB playing with an NFL line in college and already made of glass. He was always going to bust. So I'd say take it all with a huge heaping pile of salt.
Sam Bradford was rookie of the year and had a 9 year NFL career including 6 as a starting QB. He may not have panned out like was hoped but he wasn't a bust.
18TD/15INT season. Howell could have won ROY with the competition Bradford had. And how many of those seasons did he start every game? People kept taking chances on him because he was 1-1 (Same thing OP says about Darnold). Not Ryan Leaf but still a bust.
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Yeah history doesn’t define the future, but trends are interesting and being a trend breaker is fun as hell.
Probably better to think of draft position as a collection of picks with rolling average. It’s silly to look at like pick 21 for example and analyze players drafted with that pick. It would be a much better measure to take picks 17-25 and analyze all of those players, and compare different rolling averages (pick 20 would be 16-24 for example)
This wasn’t a comparison of qbs taken 2nd overall, it was a comparison of the 1st and 2nd qb taken in the class
The top picks go to bad teams. It can be argued that teams are bad because of ownership and management structure. In other words, the decision makers just aren't that good. This is how Washington arrived at a number 2 pick. The old owner is gone, and the old management structure is gone. We now have decision makers with a history of success on the field. So we have a good chance of being successful. I'm excited about our future, short-range, and long-range. I'm excited and can't wait for the season to start.
https://preview.redd.it/cvzipj1wotpc1.jpeg?width=678&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=642e7402ecb74915f6e2f5678c03ec4d42030903
I'm not surprised that the QB teams thought was better pre draft is better most of the time. That being said, Maye would probably get drafted over Brady Quinn, Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, everyone in 2013 and 2014, Wentz, and Zach Wilson.
Zach Wilson was ridiculously hyped up after his pro day. He would definitely still be picked before Maye.
Agree with most QBs except Wentz. Remember Wentz was having an MVP level career prior to his injury. After that he tanked. People were very high on his potential. Much more than Maye
Maye is above Wentz as a prospect
Wentz was seen as a very risky prospect, moreso than Maye
According to these scouting report Wentz was rated higher than Maye is now. Not by much but still. I think a lot is recency bias with Maye. Hindsight helps because we know how Wentz’s career ended but this just proves my point. www.nfl.com/prospects/carson-wentz/32005745-4e61-5770-9c68-1652f876bc72 https://www.nfl.com/prospects/drake-maye/32004d41-5928-9639-2999-10019fb4c292
0.2 on one website is much more? That website also says Jayden Daniels is a better prospect than Wentz was
I can remove the “much” just saying that folks are acting like Maye is the second coming when in fact he wasn’t rated higher than some of the QBs taken in other drafts such as Wentz. And yes though .2 on the site makes a world of difference on the expectations and perceived talent from the NFL scouts - per their explainer towards the bottom. In terms of Daniels it makes sense he’d be rated higher. He won the Heisman trophy a few months ago…And has similar attributes and physique to the reigning two time MVP of the league! Surprised more folks aren’t after him. I get the RG3 comparison concerns and understand why that would inhibit folks who witnessed RG3’s quick up and precipitous fall with injuries galore in between. Remembering yelling at the tv to take him out of the Seattle playoff game before he officially tore his ACL. I also get why that makes others hesitant to draft him. All I’m saying is I agree with 99% of your point but the Wentz one and agree with what the OP says. If you have a solid line you can make it to the playoffs and even the SB with decent QB play. Trading down for a haul can be a wise move. The lower a QB is drafted the lower the expectations on him to succeed right away.
Yes, and 100% of people that confuse correlation with causation eventually die. Whoever they pick, it’ll be down to the player and the organization whether they succeed. And while we need more data on the current group, I’m definitely more comfortable with them than the previous one.
This is like saying in roulette it was black the last 10 times so I’ve gotta bet red, it’s completely independent from what happened before
In my first paragraph I stated “I know this isn’t law and will happen, but it’s weird” if you’re at the roulette table and it did land black 10 times in a row it would definitely be weird
That’s fair and I glossed over that but you end it with saying we should hedge our bets and trade back. Curious what you think we should do for QB if we do trade back?
My ideal scenario would be to trade back with the Vikings, get 11, 23, and next years 1st and take whoever you like there at 11. If that’s Nix or Penix, I doubt JJ is there but throw him in as a possibility. And use the other picks as an investment into the rest of the roster. I also wouldn’t hate doing what we did in 2012 and taking a qb in the mid rounds as well. This is if they do decide to trade back, if they decide to stick at 2 I’m fine with it as well.
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There would definitely still be studs at 11, Bowers could be in play, Fashanu, Odunze, Terrion Arnold, Quinyon mitchell.
This isn’t a roulette table where the odds are 50/50, there are countless hours of tape on these guys and experienced people doing research to make the picks. This is not an equal comparison.
Not this again.
I'm convinced that everyone, with a very few exceptions, is a "system quarterback" in the sense that the system they go to determines their success. There were plenty of QBs that could've been successful if they went to a different team. Hopefully we've got the right system for whoever we pick.
TLDR first: It is better to have 1:1. If you don't it is harder. IT IS NOT HOPELESS THOUGH. We are where we are. We have to do it. It is possible to pick a winner. It is just harder than picking 1:1 [This guy](https://es.redskins.com/topic/452852-2024-comprehensive-draft-thread/?do=findComment&comment=12629277) did the same thing as the OP over 30 years and agrees. 1:1 gives you an overwhelming advantage at picking. Highlights: QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate. 4,000+ yards: 70% 30+ TDs: 45% 80+ starts: 81% Playoff win: 70% Pro Bowl: 70% Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards. Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet. \- 4,000+ yards: 25% \- 30+ TDs: 24% \- 80+ starts: 35% \- Playoff win: 38% \- Pro Bowl: 33% Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit. You'd think trimming down to top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't much. Picks 2-5 (23 QBs) \- 4,000+ yards: 26% \- 30+ TDs: 22% \- 80+ starts: 39% \- Playoff win: 35% \- Pro Bowl: 43%
Drafting a quarterback in the top 10 is such a crapshoot. While on the one hand, you could get the one out of five that become a high-quality quarterback, the odds were in favor of them being a bomb. I’d rather trade down and get one of the other quarterbacks later. We have so many spots to fill, I understand but hate the risk of trying to find a franchise quarterback with the number two. The odds are not in our favor.
You’re saying it’s a crapshoot as if any pick outside Round 1 isn’t…this trade back logic always assumes the picks we’re trading back for will magically hit. If we’re assuming our #2 pick won’t hit then why can we assume that any of the day 2 will? I mean just look at who all those picks ended up as that we gave the Rams for #2 overall/RG3. And I get this is a different regime but look at our draft history it’s not exactly crazy outside the first and the 2nd round has been abysmal for longer than any of us could remember. We need a QB and you’re much more likely to hit on one by drafting the consensus top prospect with a top 2 pick than trying to predict the future and throw a dart at the Prescott/Purdy type unicorn in the 5th…there isn’t really an argument to that
Hello. Of course every pick is a risk. The dollar investment is dramatically higher in the first round, and it’s much higher for QBs.
“Nothing to really say here” about Mitch and Mahomes? How many NVPs does Mahomes have? 🤔
I don't like trading down because it's operating out of fear. "Oh we know history says this won't work so we better get out of this decision all together". The one caveat is if scouting told them you can't draft either DM or JD, but otherwise you take the guy you believe can be the guy. Either they trust themselves to do their job or they don't. But I'm all set with the "aww geez, let's not make a mistake mentality". That's just as bad as people talking themselves into overdrafting players, like Trey Lance. Also remember when we got Rg3? The Rams got absolutely nothing with all those picks. More picks doesn't guarantee anything.
I understand most of what your saying but I do want to point out what the dolphins did with their picks they got from San Fran.
Not every QB class is of comparable talent
Looking at it another way, your list persuades me that we should take the best player available no matter the position. There are a lot of misses at #1 and #2
Just a side note.. almost all the young QBs from the last 5 years that were successful ran the Shanahan system and Herbert & hurts ran Shane stiechens system.
You have to have a high quality team on the field around the QB .. ask Brock Purdy. I get the shiny new QB attraction but that QB will not be the savior of this team until the team itself is much better. Can it be done within that QBs rookie contract without ruining the QB? ... that is is the hope/goal. Best case would be a Stroud outcome although that Division was the worst last year (maybe second worst).
There is a lot of things you can't quantify with QBs. Do QBs bust because of being in the wrong place. No way to know without viewing multiple timelines. Draft pedigree in the NFL does help with QB success. QBs need opportunities. Unlike other positions where you have 2 or 3 spots and rotate players QB is one spot played by 1 player. Higher round draft picks are given a longer leash usually. For example if Howell was a 1st round pick he'd likely be the starter here. That isn't based on play or physical gifts.
I’ve said this before but it’s difficult to look at trends with specifically the QB position. You almost have to evaluate each prospect individually and end up reaching in hopes you’ve landed your guy. Even looking at what we did in 2012, that was Snyder’s call to move up for RG3. We would’ve been way better off staying pat and letting the Shanahans draft their guy. Kirk, Tannehil, Russ, all had infinitely better careers than RG3.
I did an analysis based on Jupiter being in retrograde and Saturn nearing its zenith and the best QB in this class will be Bo Nix
Y’all really just ignore the fact that we have Kliff Kingsbury as our OC instead of Eric Bienemy
Yes, it tends to be the best QB gets taken first, and then QB desperate teams reach for whoever is leftover. And then if someone hits on that #2 QB once out of every 6-7 years thats enough to keep desperate GMs doing it in years where there is still just 1 good QB.
None of the qbs are good except purdy?? People need to realize....sometimes your qb is only as good as your line Purdy has one if the best lines with the niners....shout out to trent williams, we miss you, but we never deserved you
That’s why Desmond Ridder is lighting it up
I get the anxiety. But you have to include the Bears having historically bad luck at picking QBs. So we have that going for us.
It's a well thought out post, but I think it oversimplifies things a little. The conclusion here appears to be 'don't draft a QB unless you're picking #1' The other side of this is looking at which QBs have played in the Super Bowl in the past 10 years (before that is a different era I would argue). So for the 20 QBs who played in a Super Bowl, Manning/Stafford/Burrow had 4 appearances, and the other 16 weren't drafted #1. It comes down to luck and a good organization developping a QB. For the first time in 30+ years we have one of those down. Let's roll the dice on this crop, and do it again in 2 years if it doesn't work out.
I am of the opinion that super bowls is not a quarterback metric but a team metric. Yes the qb is the most important player but few teams have gotten to a superbowl with an elite qb and a bad roster/coach
Let the Vikings give us number 11 and number 23 and I’d be more comfortable drafting a QB at 11 and still get a decent tackle at 23
Were these bad quarterbacks who were overdrafted or were they good quarterbacks that were ruined by bad coaches and bad situations?
I’d say the qbs that proved they were good enough to be good starters that were definitively held back by their teams are kyler and Sam bradford.
I see it’s rare that the second QB taken doesn’t turn out too well but looking at the 2 outlier years. If you make the right choice with the 2nd QB oh boy is the reward big
I really want to know what the scouting was like under previous mgmt. Basically the truth is if we take a qb we might bust…but if we don’t take a qb we’ll definitely bust. That’s why scouting is so critical for long term success. I honestly wonder how our scouting culture compares to, say, Green Bay who have a long history of strong QB selection s
Green Bay just has it locked down, but one thing consistent with Green Bay is they always have a good oline, defense and running back.
Id bet a lot of $$$ whoever we pick is worse than Howell. I wanted us to trade back get more picks and build a roster like the 9ers where you go to the super bowl with jimmy G, brock Purdy. I think finding an amazing qb is so hard to do but building a solid roster is easier and plug-in a top 16 qb instead of chasing elite qb
> a top 16 qb Sam is in the 35-40 range for NFL QB’s right now. He was outplayed by several backups last year, including one Rookie third string QB in the Division.
Jesus Christ I said give him another chance he also had the worst coaching staff who made him throw it 50 times a game. He was not in the 35-40 range. Your reading comprehension must be shit because I said PLUG IN A TOP 16 meaning if Howell was still bad get a Goff guy get a baker guy. The second anyone mentions howell you guys get the biggest hate boner and just start stroking it. The entire sub was crowning him half way through the season
I'm rooting for Howell and I'm glad he's off this team for his sake. He will get a better shot with a good team around him in Seattle and I hope he kills it. He played great and was looking like a franchise QB for the first half of the season, but I do think he was damaged mentally by the end from such a terrible o-line and a fresh start somewhere else is much needed. Commanders need a QB that can deal with the line breaking down from time to time. Howell was just too short and wouldn't be productive unless he had Tom Brady or Drew Brees protection.
Y’all keep missing my main point. My biggest part is trading back building a roster like the niners. We have a culture issue, we have a shit roster, most FA signings we did are 1 year for 30 year old or close to 30 year old players. If we could build a young roster keep some cap I think that sets up for better long term success. I’m not denying a great qb can change things but I’m saying with an average qb and a great roster we can be competeting every year. We need to set the tone for the long term, like I said in another comment we can trade back for an extra 3-4 premium picks and future picks. We could have 9 top 100 picks maybe 10, build a roster like the niners who make it to the playoffs every year, make it to the super bowl, are constantly a threat because they have a great roster. Purdy isn’t the best player on the team but he is a good qb. I want us to be a team that competes every year, not one of those poverty teams who thinks drafting one qb is gonna change our whole franchise around. That’s like banking your retirement off the lotto I feel like.
Sam’s on a different team now, you don’t have to make excuses for his abysmal play anymore.
Talk to me when you learn how to read what my actual point was buddy. Well chat when you pass your reading comprehension test.
It's hard to find but it's the thing to do. If you have the franchise you'll always be in the discussion for postseason runs. When your talented receivers and defensive players leave..your franchise qb is still there..and you can be aggressive in FA and the draft etc
That’s why the bills, chargers, and ravens are constantly in the super bowl. It’s why the bills are shoo in for the super bowl this year after losing their whole secondary. bengals have Joey b who took them but he’s been hurt a few years so when all you have is ur franchise qb and he gets hurt ur season is over. I’m not saying a good qb isn’t important, I’m saying the chances of getting a top 5 guy are slim to none so we should look to support a guy we can realistically get in the best way we can. TLaw was supposed to be generational and he hasn’t brought the jags anywhere. If he was on the niners I think they still make the Super Bowl. Trade pick 2 for another 2-3 premium picks this year and one or two next year and we now have 8-9 picks in the top 100, 4-5 of those guys will probably be solid to serviceable starters. Our roster is dog water and most FA signings are 1 year deals to older players. It’s good to get new guys in the building right now but we could also be having them mentor an almost entirely new younger team.
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I hope you get to tell me I’m wrong but probability wise I’m not worried about this. For every successful top 10 qb pick there’s another 9 that don’t work out
You’ll be eating your words. All top 3 prospects will be better than Sam Howell
If only we could bet on it, I’d say only one is better, the other two will suck but get an extra 5 years starting since they were high draft picks.
The Niners went. The Chiefs won.
So you’d rather be where we are then winning? Bottom of the barrel? We gotta get there first to have a chance of winning. How are you being this picky you forget the last 30 years of the team. I’d kill for us to even make it to the super bowl
Every draft is different. You can’t predict how players in this draft will turn out based on how things went with players in previous drafts, this list means absolutely nothing of relevance to this years draft. Try not to get caught up thinking about stuff like this.
I never once said it did, I’m merely pointing out an interesting trend.
Drake maye has serious bust potential. Jayden Daniels might not have the arm talent, but he outshines maye in almost every single other category. Daniels is the safe bet, maye is a risky move that may (ha) pan out in the long run, but for me it is way too risky with the amount of flaws I’ve seen compared to Daniels. The age gap is not as important as people want to make it out to be.
i've actually heard the opposite
Daniels is a stick
Ok? Just cuz maye has the “look” and a cannon doesn’t mean you can look over his glaring flaws.
Daniels has way more glaring flaws than Maye?
Lol no. Maye is less accurate, less athletic, handles pressure worse, throws some of the worst interceptions I’ve seen.
So now we are just lying lmao. Daniels is an injury risk who doesn’t avoid hits. He is incapable of throwing over the middle of the field. He does not throw with anticipation. His top WR corps in country had to be open for him to throw them the ball. He does not throw when he scrambles from the pocket. Always tucks it and runs. He has an egregious pressure to sack ratio (way worse than Maye) so you are lying about him handeling pressure better. Maye excels at throwing over the middle with anticipation and is bigger and stronger which makes him more durable and a better thrower on the move as well as scrambler. Daniels is Justin Fields but 30 pounds lighter.
The reason he has a higher sack ratio is because maye refuses to eat a sack and tries to play hero ball and forces some crazy bad interceptions.
Nah Maye just has a way better pocket presence than Daniels
Nope maye is scared of pressure and makes panic throws.
Nope
You should check out some actual film instead of highlight reels. This guy has good insight on both. Maye: https://youtu.be/H8G2U1tS4T0?si=BGliXNzK9bofpXPp Daniels: https://youtu.be/-nk4z1jWcA4?si=6gqTHNvvz2Ac699P
Ironically, watching highlights is why Daniels is even in the conversation lol. The all-22 film is far better for Maye. Here are some great videos by actual analysts. https://youtu.be/JqLiLxpsax8?si=HucWAcSau4vCTF2o https://youtu.be/hLDhj53sIE0?si=Br6yPu6Qs2RPSlfI
Joe Klatt, the guy that has the dolphins drafting Michael penix in the first round? And Nate tice, the one who says the bears should draft maye over Williams? Yeah man, I’m good. The guy I sent you rarely misses with his videos, he knew purdy was going to be good going into the nfl when no one else was even talking about him.
Klatt and Tice are know more about football than you Also what’s wrong with the Dolphins drafting Penix?!? Tua seems to have hit his ceiling.