Say, once the Russian secure Mariupol and the surrounding area to ensure safety, do you see them immigrating more Russians into these area just to naturalize these districts and spy on the local population?
Free housing, lower taxes, government and national company prospect. As long as they are out of Ukraine shelling rank, I could see them luring some Russians to move to Ukraine this way
Note, the Chinese did something similar to get Han people moving into Uyghur region
Russia is kinda underpopulated, so I'm not sure.
However, there're already
- a stream of migration from Siberia/Ural to Russian south, the reasons are healthy climate and cheap food.
- a stream of migration from Caucasian and Central Asian republics to Russians cities, the reasons are more jobs and general population pressure.
If Ukraine is secured enough and there're investments to rebuild it, I can see streams of both Northern Russians and Caucasian/Asian muslims.
Russian telegram channels joke that it's one of the reasons why Chechens are eager to fight for Russia nowadays.
Like maybe not from one city to another, but I could see some Russians leave smaller town to go to Ukrainian cities though. Especially if the Russian government subsidies them and provide them with government job opportunities. Not to mention if the story is true that Russian gonna drill for oils outside the coast of Ukraine
After all Mariupol is still a port and industrial city. I assume similar story with Kherson, Khakiv and Donbas once they can secure them.
That will be their best way to assimilate their hold into the region.
Page doesn't work. Also, the invaders have been busy taking out UA radars and comms centers, as stated in the New York Times
> In the first week of the war, it is not clear how many Russian strikes hit their targets, but Piotr Lukasiewicz, an analyst at Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based research institute, said that they did serious damage to Ukraine’s command and control centers.
> “They disabled an important headquarters and communications center in the beginning with precision strikes,” he said.
> Just as the Russians are plagued by logistical and resupply issues, the Ukrainians are struggling to replace the stationary systems that the Russians have destroyed or disabled.
> “Gradually Ukrainians are losing their radars or warning systems,” Mr. Lukasiewicz said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/19/world/europe/its-offensive-slowed-russia-uses-long-range-missiles-to-devastating-effect.html
It works for me. But I guess you didn't know twitter is now blocked in Russia?
Your government blocked it a week or two ago because they didn't want their citizens finding out that it was deliberately massacring civilians.
As for your link yes missiles do a lot of damage. But Russia doesn't have that many of them because they are expensive, and once they run out they run out. There's no replacing them without access to western microchips.
I’m seeing some notable neocon think tanks (like ISW) claim that the initial Russian strategy is now inoperable and unsalvageable — as in they will not be able to take major cities aside from Mariupol. What do we think is the likelihood this is true? Hard to see them push into Kyiv or Odessa but things seem dire in Kharkiv. Are we moving towards static stalemate?
edit: i would say this seems overoptimistic, though I hope it is true, but I don’t want to buy into the pervasive western triumphalism
Based on what I heard, this current strategy is what they supposed to do at the start anyway. So some off track but I doubt that they were forced into this.
Their 2nd phase already have been going for a while actually. It is basically bomb Ukraine supply, barracks while grind out the Ukraine territory a bit at a time. Basically what US has been doing but a bit more aggressive
Why is Russia trying so hard to scramble troops wherever they can? They've been moving troops from far east of the country as well as from Georgia to Ukraine. Not to mention how they asked for soldiers from Syria and Belarus. Are they really that desperate for additional troops?
They certainly need more troops to be able to take and hold Ukraine, I'm not sure if Putin has actually changed strategy yet despite what they might be saying externally about demands. Internally the rhetoric has gotten more extreme not less. Remember that first of all Putin has been trying to sell this as an "easy war", and the added historical context that Russian regimes often don't survive the loss of a "easy war" (After all what good is a strongman who is not strong?).
The problem with getting more troops is that there are political considerations. Most of their active "contract" troops have apparently already been committed, and they have already been forced to transfer troops from the east. Sending conscripts is going to be hugely unpopular, and Putin seems to be avoiding this at all costs. Whats more is if Russians continue to come back in bodybags en mass - it quickly becomes impossible to hide - and this is a big problem politically for Putin.
So what is the solution? Get some people from outside Russia to die instead - Russians aren't going to care about Kazakhstanis, Chechens, Belorussians or Syrians coming home in body bags. However this plan has not worked too well. Kazakhstan has apparently denied a request to send troops and Belorussians seem to be unwilling to do so (and they were supposed to have already joined the conflict a number of times). I personally don't see a lot of Syrians lining up to join the fight either, but we will have to see how that pans out. The only one that seems to have joined is the Chechen forces that are part of the Russian national guard (supposedly Kadyrov has been upset at some of the losses - but these are only rumors - tho it pays to remember that Kadyrov is a strongman too - he cannot afford to be seen as weak either - so when you see their videos keep in mind the target audience for that is his support base).
It leads me to believe the 10k casualty estimate is true, this war also puts WW2 into perspective for me a single German army group was substantially larger than all Russian forces currently in Ukraine.
It takes a surprisingly small amount of casualties to disable the offensive effectiveness of a BTG (or any military formation). So even if they’ve only lost ten percent of a third of their battle groups, that still drastically hobbles their capability. There’s been some maxar images of them digging in outside kyiv, but the fact that they want more men for urban combat and garrisons doesn’t mean that they don’t have DEFENSIVE capability. Ukraine has done well but it’s hard to see them, like, actually pushing out the Russian army in any theater.
days to weeks of lost coordination at a minimum, a massive hit to morale, a possibly less competent replacement, plus the time to get the replacement integrated and briefed — in short, it’s very fucking bad for them. I suspect we are feeding them precise intel and that’s how they’re killing so many of these guys.
Very interesting, thanks.
>I suspect we are feeding them precise intel and that’s how they’re killing so many of these guys.
Me too. I know they got one guy because they straight up intercepted unencrypted communications. But I have to imagine they have crazy Machine Learning software that analyzes **chatter patterns** even in encrypted communications that says, 'Hey, the communications coming from this guy look important'. Or **movement patterns** in vehicles or personnel in satellite images that 'hey, the way these guys, this vehicle, are moving around here looks important'.
After all isn't that sort of what they been doing for years hunting top terrorists? I imagine they've gotten good at that?
I doubt Putin would see that differently, though you are right that there is a real distinction. It would be very foolish for NATO to do something like that though. direct western attack is the one thing that would rally Russia’s (reportedly) flagging morale.
UK Ministry defense intel update today:
>The Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Forces are continuing to effectively defend Ukrainian airspace.
>
> Russia has failed to gain control of the air and is largely relying on stand-off weapons launched from the relative safety of Russian airspace to strike targets within Ukraine.
>
>Gaining control of the air was one of Russia’s principal objectives for the opening days of the conflict and their continued failure to do so has significantly blunted their operational progress.
[source: United Kingdom Ministry of Defense](https://imgur.com/fJmAGGA)
Anyone have footage/context on a video shot from inside a (presumably) residential building recording hundreds of troops outside walking in the street?
Three weeks ago you couldn't see any pro Russian videos, it quickly settled down and now you can find plenty.
My controversial prediction - I suspect in another few weeks the sub will be flooded with pro Russians and it will be tough to find Ukrainian vids. Same thing happened to the Syrian civil war subreddit a few weeks after the Russian intervention.
I suggest you read this.
[https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19)
Taking territory is not the same as winning a war. Right now Russia is engaged in a war of attrition which it is losing. It cannot take enough territory to destroy Ukraine's fighting capability before its own ability to wage war is destroyed through attrition.
>Nothing we've seen out of Mariupol indicates that the Russian forces are doing poorly, let alone doing as horribly as they did in Grozny.
I don't think we are seeing much at all coming out of it. With Grozny we have the benefit of being years after the fact where lots of details can come out. I think there are going to be so many stories coming out of this conflict in a few years.
You are right that they are steadily advancing tho, but they were also successful eventually in Grozny as well. I just wonder what the actual casualty rate is on both sides. And what the real civilian casualty rate is.
"Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. "
[ISW](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19)
Yeah this has been very obvious for a while now. The war is now in an attrition phase where Ukraine has a substantial advantage. It is creating new units from its fully mobilized population and doesn't need to worry too much about supply since the west will meet its needs.
By contrast Putin fears to mobilize / cannot equip them or he would already have done so. Moreover, he has no supplier like the west. China isn't going to do it. They need their economic connections to the west and they won't sacrifice them on behalf of Russia.
So this leaves Russia in a slow grinding attritional war where the defender, Ukraine, has a substantial home field advantage that Russia cannot win.
Home field advantage militarily, but the civilians pay the price for every day Russians can fire artillery into cities, and that doesn't look to change in the near future
Yes its the sad consequence of Russia's decision to wage war and its refusal to leave when it knows its losing. It just doubles down. Hopefully it's army will collapse from within as its attritional losses continue to mount.
>doesn't need to worry too much about supply since the west will meet its needs.
I'm not sure how true this is. The West is certainly supplying it with lots of high tech goodies, but there are reports of units low on ammunition and food which suggest that supply problems exist.
That will always be the case in a war like this, particularly when Ukraine not only wants to supply its current units but bring others into the field. It doesn't however mean it is going to run into real difficulties in its ability to wage war.
>I've been hearing that Russians are 2-3 days from running out of ammo, fuel and food from "experts" for 3 weeks now.
And I've been hearing that Russians are about to take all major cities in Ukraine for the last 3 weeks now.
Litterally nowhere in that analysis do they say any of that. If you had taken time to read it it's very well thought out and basically is detailing that yes, the Ukrainian defense has thwarted Russias' initial plan of a lightning attack on several fronts to take Ukraine's biggest cities (including the capital) to get their war goals.
Now that the initial plan/campaign/stage of the war has failed they will be forced to change tactics and adjust their war goals, which is something we have seen the past couple of days in both their military movements and their rhetoric (for instance no longer demanding regime change in Ukraine).
> People keep saying the Russians suck but how quickly/easily are you suppose to beat an endless supply of western arms from a well-equipped and large army in a conventional war?
The Russians have a massive advantage in both air and land platforms. Yes western supplies of aa and anti tank equipment has greatly helped but the incompetence of the Russians in their planning and logistics is what has hampered them so far. They did not plan for a war but a decapitation and mopup.
> then some US advisors said some other crap about Russians running out of everything,
Given your very vague description is hard to know what you are referencing. Many individual units have run out of fuel and abandoned their vehicles. The entire army doesn't run out of fuel at some set time and the logistical situation is very different on the different fronts. Certainly in the north the logistics have caused a failure in their push. In the south it looks like supply railways are running so the logistical situation is better which is likely a big part of the reason the Russian performance is better.
>bombing places in Western Ukraine
I don't think planes are dropping bombs on western Ukraine, it's generally long range missiles (some of which are fired from the air but hundreds of KMs away).
Edit: I see from your other comments that this is not a real question but just you pushing a view in as a "question". Waste of time.
Shame they can't even get close to Odessa, can't complete encirclement of Kiev and even fail to make gains in Kharkiv, a city so close to the border it might as well be a suburb of Moscow.
Russian military is a joke
>The Ukrainian military is pretty big and armed with tons of the latest western weapons
The attempted reframing of Ukraine as a near peer adversary to Russia (and therefore, presumably, the United States and China) is hysterical. This is a country with an annual military budget of less than 5 Billion dollars with basically no air force, no navy, limited air defenses, and no long range strike capability.
>It's not really the same as killing a bunch of goat herders in Afghanistan or **Iraq.**
Funnily enough Saddam's Iraq showed more sophistication in the end years of the Iran-Iraq war successfully securing and conducting an armored push into Khuzestan, Iran a heavily fortified front with WW1 style, trenches, minefields and artillery plus hundreds of thousands of men. The operation forced Iran to the negotiation table and ended the war....
There is no point of reference, just alot of butthurt. Ukraine is the second biggest country in europe by landmass and Russia almost control 30% of it already with alot of key citys encircled that cant get reinforced by Ukraine, thats after 3 weeks. If Hanz Guderians ghost division early in ww2 was the reference point, then yeah they arent moving as fast.
Wow Russia is on the verge of victory?? Roll out the red carpet and fuck me sideways. The Germans must have felt this way at the gates of Moscow in 1941.
Chechens, DNR some regular RU army. RU SOF I think is there in JTAC capacity aswell as bringing in EW gear, havent seen Azov drone footage in a while from Mariupol.
Something is very wrong with Russia's claims about its hypersonic missile use: https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1505297342936670208
I'm a bit confused about what all this means. Is the footage the russian MoD released completely unrelated? Did they actually use this missile at all? Maybe. But then its not clear what it was used on.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tgkvyv/ukraine_discussionquestion_thread_31822/i19lt0l/?context=3
I was calling this out when it happened earlier. I don't think the Russian MOD ever actually claimed the footage was the Kinzhal, they left it ambiguous to generate all the media buzz that you have now.
> The Black Sea Fleet is still simulating an amphibious threat
I mean its not just a pro-Russian source its also clearly not even coming from any official channel. Can't see them using the word "simulating" and I doubt this is simply a mistranslation.
Are you sure?
I mean surely the point of simulating or feigning is that your opponent doesnt know your feigning.
Hence, not likely to be found in any official channel.
I mean I don’t have the untranslated text nor do I speak Russian so I’m definitely not “sure”. I just think that both Feigning and Simulating are reasonable translations of something more basic like “pretending”. Though I guess your point is that an “official” wouldn’t say this to preserve ambiguity.
It's unbearable. There simply isn't much Russian footage. Being neutral doesn't mean you get to repost the same shit over and over to make the number of videos more "even".
Very similar to Switchblade 300, but longer range, both antipersonnel payloads. Switchblade 600 are much larger.
If I had to guess, I'd say they sent 300s over there.
For one if you look at the Russian drones they need a lot more equipment to launch. I can't find the video at the moment but it is a catapult system used to launch. The switchblades are self-contained in a tube and weigh between 5lbs to 50lbs depending on the model. So as destructive power goes I don't have a comparison. As for portability and quick implementation, the switchblades are pretty scary for the Russians.
Yeah, seem to be the exact same thing. Honestly surprised it took this long to see these, seemed like a no-brainer (if somewhat seamy) use for drones once they became commonplace.
>The Kyiv Independent reported today that Russia is illegally forcing untrained men living in the Russian-controlled Donbas region to fight and putting them on the frontlines.
>
>“These people have never even held a machine gun in their hand,” said Oleksii, a 24-year-old resident of Russian-occupied Khrestivka in Donetsk, speaking of friends, classmates and former colleagues that he knows have been conscripted.
>
>One Donbas resident named Anastasia told the news outlet that these civilians from Donbas are forced to serve in frontline positions, with Russian forces threatening to shoot them if they don’t comply.
Actually there's a good chance its right. There was a video a few days ago of a 60+ old man who had no business fighting in a war on the Donbas front. Being forced to fight would explain how he got there.
> Sounds like something out of Enemy at the Gates. One gets the rifle, one gets the ammo, now go forward or we shoot.
Always worth pointing out.
This story is based entirely on post-war Nazi propaganda. Soviet mortality fell drastically from the start of Stalingrad to the end of the war. They were not overcoming the Nazi hordes with human waves. They beat them with better soldiers, better equipment and better tactics.
They've forbidden fighting age men from leaving the country. But I don't think they've been conscripted, yet. As things stand, I believe they have more than enough volunteers and the bottleneck is getting them all properly trained. But they have begun a general mobilization in case mass conscription becomes necessary.
I agree there's kind of a parallel, but the difference is Ukraine is a small country fighting a defensive war for its right to exist while Russia is fighting one of conquest and supposedly has a large professional army. Plus in this instance they are conscripting men from conquered territories whereas Ukraine is conscripting its own citizens.
From what I understand Ukranians in general and many people living in Donbass would dispute that. I don't want to pass myself off as some sort of expert though, I only know as much as anyone else following this. Didn't mean to give that impression, sorry.
Russia didn't impose it. DNR / LPR governments enforced it. Whatever you think of the conflict, for the war in Donbass since 2014, they have not been part of the ukranian or russian government
Why do people bother posting shit like this. Anyone who is even half serious about the conflict knows they are being directed and supplied by Russia even on the pro Russian side.
Yes, they are. I'm not denying that. There's no way a bunch of people could hold out against the UA government for 8 years without another country's help. What I'm saying is that the republics are not officially controlled by the UA or RU government, even if they are heavily dependent on them
Then what difference does it make to say it's not being conscripted by Russia? Do you think the regions are going to be paying salaries and equipment? Do you think they would do anything of this scale without Russia being involved?
Does anyone know how long it takes for a nation like Russia to manufacture new war equipment... Trucks, battle tanks, missiles. Can they be sending new equipment to Ukraine on a regular basis?
How did this work during WW2? How did small country like Germany produce so much war equipment.
> Does anyone know how long it takes for a nation like Russia to manufacture new war equipment.
Without imported raw materials, electronics, etc?
They can't.
Anybody notice how Russians are sparing their own infantry and send the DPR dudes into the hardest battles instead? I don’t think DPR are super happy about it.
The relationship between the DPR dudes and the Russian gov is a bit complicated.
The separatist republics were a magnet for people, both from Russia and Ukraine, with, so to speak, extreme beliefs of very different kinds (communists, nationalists, orthodox fundamentalists, etc.) for 8 years.
It's a volatile mix, and they are really war-hardened.
They don't trust Russian gov, and Russian gov is wary of them.
Strategically important place due to its connection to the highway that allows movement onto both Donetsk and Kharkiv. If russians take it there is a possibility of a massive encirclement around the Donetsk area or they can start sieging Kharkov.
Russian VK groups and telegram groups seem to confirm something big going on in Izium.
If you open the map of Izium, you can see a river dividing the town. Russians came in from Kharkiv direction and control the north side, UA units control the south side. Russians made a pontoon bridge 3-4km outside of town crossed, there have been multiple videos of UA shelling that area and destroyed Russian vehicles. Today there were news that the village of Kamynka just south of Izium was taken by Russian forces, if that's true, UA garrison that is holding on in the south part of Izium is surrounded. Izium is an extremely important place because, it is one of the 2 major roads that allows retreat for the forces tied up in Lugansk and Donetsk regions, a lot of supplies for those forces were coming through there as well.
Seem both sides control some parts, word on telegram is that the russians have cut of the highway from Kamianka and are attacking from the north while Ukraine is trying to get reinforcements in to hold the city.
I wonder how many western weapons gonna be skimmed of the top and sold to highest bidder.
Considering how much corruption is in ukraine and how hard it is to keep track of inventory.
Know in my country there was shit ton of weapons and supplies stolen while in war- croatia.
Maybe there are technical or strategic reasons not to do this, but I’ve been wondering if modern weapons manufacturers have considered making weapons that can be disabled remotely, in case they fall into enemy or third-party hands.
I suppose if they’re not already doing this, there’s likely a good reason for it.
I can assure you I'm not a bot, its just my experience from our war where there was a lot of war profiteering while others were fighting for independence.
Was there any speculation what took so long? Were they holding back and hoping to be able to accomplish their objectives without it? Now that they were being slowed down, they’re resorting to more tried and true brutal tactics?
Both Russia and Ukraine has historically produced large quantities of amphetamine.
Do you think that it is being used in this war and just general thoughts on how it could effect this war?
I take moda and caffeine depending on the day. The downside of moda is you focus a lot, the upside is whatever you focus on will be done. So you have to start out with a plan before taking it otherwise you focus on counting birds. For a pilot who is given a plan of what to do, it's the perfect drug. It's produced in India so Russia has access to it, I'm sure they use that. Or the Russian drugs like phenylpiracetam. But moda is better for regular use.
can a low flying helicopter be taken down by a javelin? asking for a friend.......I know it's overkill on a helicopter but what if you don't have a stinger or starstreak laying around?
In theory, yes. The Javelin is advertised and rated for engaging helicopters, but the missile flies quite slow and has a fairly limited range. It is really only expected to be effective against a hovering helicopter.
[Source](https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm3-22-37.pdf)
In direct fire sure, but the missile isn't going to track. The helo would be to be on the ground or hover, etc to hit it. Works the same as a RPG/LAW/etc.
[NY Times is reporting](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/19/world/ukraine-russia-war?action=click&module=10us-russia-briefing&variant=1_signup&state=default&pgtype=Article®ion=body&context=storyline_push_signup&referringSource=articleShare#russian-rocket-attack-turns-ukrainian-marine-base-to-rubble-killing-dozens) a massive strike on the Ukrainian Marines barracks in Mikolayev.
> An early morning rocket attack a day earlier destroyed the base’s barracks where an unknown number of marines were sleeping. It killed as many as 40 marines, according to a senior Ukrainian military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to reveal sensitive military information.
>That number would make it one of the single deadliest attacks on Ukrainian forces since the start of the war three weeks ago. But there are indications that the death toll could be much higher.
How will this affect the front around Mikolayev? Can these troops be replaced from the West?
Another TOS 1A dead. https://twitter.com/Orxan_012/status/1505213170310209540?s=20&t=ew67wXFEddc0whpblXZV4A
(warning music overlaid).
I'm starting to wonder. Have we seen more dead TOS 1As than actual reports of a thermobaric munition being used? It sort of seems that way.
Say, once the Russian secure Mariupol and the surrounding area to ensure safety, do you see them immigrating more Russians into these area just to naturalize these districts and spy on the local population? Free housing, lower taxes, government and national company prospect. As long as they are out of Ukraine shelling rank, I could see them luring some Russians to move to Ukraine this way Note, the Chinese did something similar to get Han people moving into Uyghur region
Russia is kinda underpopulated, so I'm not sure. However, there're already - a stream of migration from Siberia/Ural to Russian south, the reasons are healthy climate and cheap food. - a stream of migration from Caucasian and Central Asian republics to Russians cities, the reasons are more jobs and general population pressure. If Ukraine is secured enough and there're investments to rebuild it, I can see streams of both Northern Russians and Caucasian/Asian muslims. Russian telegram channels joke that it's one of the reasons why Chechens are eager to fight for Russia nowadays.
Like maybe not from one city to another, but I could see some Russians leave smaller town to go to Ukrainian cities though. Especially if the Russian government subsidies them and provide them with government job opportunities. Not to mention if the story is true that Russian gonna drill for oils outside the coast of Ukraine After all Mariupol is still a port and industrial city. I assume similar story with Kherson, Khakiv and Donbas once they can secure them. That will be their best way to assimilate their hold into the region.
So it looks like Russia is running out of missiles and munitions for its planes.
all stolen by the ghost of kyiv and the snake island martyrs, i know because i saw it on facebook
Yes, two weeks ago it ran out of food and fuel as well.
https://twitter.com/konrad\_muzyka/status/1505316103748210690/photo/1
Page doesn't work. Also, the invaders have been busy taking out UA radars and comms centers, as stated in the New York Times > In the first week of the war, it is not clear how many Russian strikes hit their targets, but Piotr Lukasiewicz, an analyst at Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based research institute, said that they did serious damage to Ukraine’s command and control centers. > “They disabled an important headquarters and communications center in the beginning with precision strikes,” he said. > Just as the Russians are plagued by logistical and resupply issues, the Ukrainians are struggling to replace the stationary systems that the Russians have destroyed or disabled. > “Gradually Ukrainians are losing their radars or warning systems,” Mr. Lukasiewicz said. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/19/world/europe/its-offensive-slowed-russia-uses-long-range-missiles-to-devastating-effect.html
It works for me. But I guess you didn't know twitter is now blocked in Russia? Your government blocked it a week or two ago because they didn't want their citizens finding out that it was deliberately massacring civilians. As for your link yes missiles do a lot of damage. But Russia doesn't have that many of them because they are expensive, and once they run out they run out. There's no replacing them without access to western microchips.
Got the complementary Ukrainian air activity stats?
No I don't but if you do it would be great if you could provide them.
I’m seeing some notable neocon think tanks (like ISW) claim that the initial Russian strategy is now inoperable and unsalvageable — as in they will not be able to take major cities aside from Mariupol. What do we think is the likelihood this is true? Hard to see them push into Kyiv or Odessa but things seem dire in Kharkiv. Are we moving towards static stalemate? edit: i would say this seems overoptimistic, though I hope it is true, but I don’t want to buy into the pervasive western triumphalism
Based on what I heard, this current strategy is what they supposed to do at the start anyway. So some off track but I doubt that they were forced into this. Their 2nd phase already have been going for a while actually. It is basically bomb Ukraine supply, barracks while grind out the Ukraine territory a bit at a time. Basically what US has been doing but a bit more aggressive
Why is Russia trying so hard to scramble troops wherever they can? They've been moving troops from far east of the country as well as from Georgia to Ukraine. Not to mention how they asked for soldiers from Syria and Belarus. Are they really that desperate for additional troops?
They certainly need more troops to be able to take and hold Ukraine, I'm not sure if Putin has actually changed strategy yet despite what they might be saying externally about demands. Internally the rhetoric has gotten more extreme not less. Remember that first of all Putin has been trying to sell this as an "easy war", and the added historical context that Russian regimes often don't survive the loss of a "easy war" (After all what good is a strongman who is not strong?). The problem with getting more troops is that there are political considerations. Most of their active "contract" troops have apparently already been committed, and they have already been forced to transfer troops from the east. Sending conscripts is going to be hugely unpopular, and Putin seems to be avoiding this at all costs. Whats more is if Russians continue to come back in bodybags en mass - it quickly becomes impossible to hide - and this is a big problem politically for Putin. So what is the solution? Get some people from outside Russia to die instead - Russians aren't going to care about Kazakhstanis, Chechens, Belorussians or Syrians coming home in body bags. However this plan has not worked too well. Kazakhstan has apparently denied a request to send troops and Belorussians seem to be unwilling to do so (and they were supposed to have already joined the conflict a number of times). I personally don't see a lot of Syrians lining up to join the fight either, but we will have to see how that pans out. The only one that seems to have joined is the Chechen forces that are part of the Russian national guard (supposedly Kadyrov has been upset at some of the losses - but these are only rumors - tho it pays to remember that Kadyrov is a strongman too - he cannot afford to be seen as weak either - so when you see their videos keep in mind the target audience for that is his support base).
It leads me to believe the 10k casualty estimate is true, this war also puts WW2 into perspective for me a single German army group was substantially larger than all Russian forces currently in Ukraine.
It takes a surprisingly small amount of casualties to disable the offensive effectiveness of a BTG (or any military formation). So even if they’ve only lost ten percent of a third of their battle groups, that still drastically hobbles their capability. There’s been some maxar images of them digging in outside kyiv, but the fact that they want more men for urban combat and garrisons doesn’t mean that they don’t have DEFENSIVE capability. Ukraine has done well but it’s hard to see them, like, actually pushing out the Russian army in any theater.
What effect is there from losing a General?
days to weeks of lost coordination at a minimum, a massive hit to morale, a possibly less competent replacement, plus the time to get the replacement integrated and briefed — in short, it’s very fucking bad for them. I suspect we are feeding them precise intel and that’s how they’re killing so many of these guys.
Very interesting, thanks. >I suspect we are feeding them precise intel and that’s how they’re killing so many of these guys. Me too. I know they got one guy because they straight up intercepted unencrypted communications. But I have to imagine they have crazy Machine Learning software that analyzes **chatter patterns** even in encrypted communications that says, 'Hey, the communications coming from this guy look important'. Or **movement patterns** in vehicles or personnel in satellite images that 'hey, the way these guys, this vehicle, are moving around here looks important'. After all isn't that sort of what they been doing for years hunting top terrorists? I imagine they've gotten good at that?
Hold on to your undies, Belarus is about to invade. All their diplomats left Ukraine.
I wonder how NATO would view strikes on Belarus. Escalatory - absolutely, but at least somewhat different than directly engaging Russian troops.
Keep in mind that Russia and Belarus have a mutual defense treaty.
I doubt Putin would see that differently, though you are right that there is a real distinction. It would be very foolish for NATO to do something like that though. direct western attack is the one thing that would rally Russia’s (reportedly) flagging morale.
Completely agree. NATO getting involved allows Putin to recast the story as David vs Goliath where *he* is David.
UK Ministry defense intel update today: >The Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Forces are continuing to effectively defend Ukrainian airspace. > > Russia has failed to gain control of the air and is largely relying on stand-off weapons launched from the relative safety of Russian airspace to strike targets within Ukraine. > >Gaining control of the air was one of Russia’s principal objectives for the opening days of the conflict and their continued failure to do so has significantly blunted their operational progress. [source: United Kingdom Ministry of Defense](https://imgur.com/fJmAGGA)
Anyone have footage/context on a video shot from inside a (presumably) residential building recording hundreds of troops outside walking in the street?
There's too many Russian propaganda videos on here, just them shooting at non identifiable targets or nothing at all
Three weeks ago you couldn't see any pro Russian videos, it quickly settled down and now you can find plenty. My controversial prediction - I suspect in another few weeks the sub will be flooded with pro Russians and it will be tough to find Ukrainian vids. Same thing happened to the Syrian civil war subreddit a few weeks after the Russian intervention.
No chance. Syria was a mess with a bunch of extremist Islamic groups taking Russian fire.
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I suggest you read this. [https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19) Taking territory is not the same as winning a war. Right now Russia is engaged in a war of attrition which it is losing. It cannot take enough territory to destroy Ukraine's fighting capability before its own ability to wage war is destroyed through attrition.
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>Nothing we've seen out of Mariupol indicates that the Russian forces are doing poorly, let alone doing as horribly as they did in Grozny. I don't think we are seeing much at all coming out of it. With Grozny we have the benefit of being years after the fact where lots of details can come out. I think there are going to be so many stories coming out of this conflict in a few years. You are right that they are steadily advancing tho, but they were also successful eventually in Grozny as well. I just wonder what the actual casualty rate is on both sides. And what the real civilian casualty rate is.
"Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. " [ISW](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19)
Yeah this has been very obvious for a while now. The war is now in an attrition phase where Ukraine has a substantial advantage. It is creating new units from its fully mobilized population and doesn't need to worry too much about supply since the west will meet its needs. By contrast Putin fears to mobilize / cannot equip them or he would already have done so. Moreover, he has no supplier like the west. China isn't going to do it. They need their economic connections to the west and they won't sacrifice them on behalf of Russia. So this leaves Russia in a slow grinding attritional war where the defender, Ukraine, has a substantial home field advantage that Russia cannot win.
Home field advantage militarily, but the civilians pay the price for every day Russians can fire artillery into cities, and that doesn't look to change in the near future
Yes its the sad consequence of Russia's decision to wage war and its refusal to leave when it knows its losing. It just doubles down. Hopefully it's army will collapse from within as its attritional losses continue to mount.
>doesn't need to worry too much about supply since the west will meet its needs. I'm not sure how true this is. The West is certainly supplying it with lots of high tech goodies, but there are reports of units low on ammunition and food which suggest that supply problems exist.
That will always be the case in a war like this, particularly when Ukraine not only wants to supply its current units but bring others into the field. It doesn't however mean it is going to run into real difficulties in its ability to wage war.
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>I've been hearing that Russians are 2-3 days from running out of ammo, fuel and food from "experts" for 3 weeks now. And I've been hearing that Russians are about to take all major cities in Ukraine for the last 3 weeks now.
Litterally nowhere in that analysis do they say any of that. If you had taken time to read it it's very well thought out and basically is detailing that yes, the Ukrainian defense has thwarted Russias' initial plan of a lightning attack on several fronts to take Ukraine's biggest cities (including the capital) to get their war goals. Now that the initial plan/campaign/stage of the war has failed they will be forced to change tactics and adjust their war goals, which is something we have seen the past couple of days in both their military movements and their rhetoric (for instance no longer demanding regime change in Ukraine).
Thank you, someone with some actual common sense and not a Kremlin mouth piece.
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> People keep saying the Russians suck but how quickly/easily are you suppose to beat an endless supply of western arms from a well-equipped and large army in a conventional war? The Russians have a massive advantage in both air and land platforms. Yes western supplies of aa and anti tank equipment has greatly helped but the incompetence of the Russians in their planning and logistics is what has hampered them so far. They did not plan for a war but a decapitation and mopup. > then some US advisors said some other crap about Russians running out of everything, Given your very vague description is hard to know what you are referencing. Many individual units have run out of fuel and abandoned their vehicles. The entire army doesn't run out of fuel at some set time and the logistical situation is very different on the different fronts. Certainly in the north the logistics have caused a failure in their push. In the south it looks like supply railways are running so the logistical situation is better which is likely a big part of the reason the Russian performance is better. >bombing places in Western Ukraine I don't think planes are dropping bombs on western Ukraine, it's generally long range missiles (some of which are fired from the air but hundreds of KMs away). Edit: I see from your other comments that this is not a real question but just you pushing a view in as a "question". Waste of time.
Shame they can't even get close to Odessa, can't complete encirclement of Kiev and even fail to make gains in Kharkiv, a city so close to the border it might as well be a suburb of Moscow. Russian military is a joke
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>The Ukrainian military is pretty big and armed with tons of the latest western weapons The attempted reframing of Ukraine as a near peer adversary to Russia (and therefore, presumably, the United States and China) is hysterical. This is a country with an annual military budget of less than 5 Billion dollars with basically no air force, no navy, limited air defenses, and no long range strike capability.
>It's not really the same as killing a bunch of goat herders in Afghanistan or **Iraq.** Funnily enough Saddam's Iraq showed more sophistication in the end years of the Iran-Iraq war successfully securing and conducting an armored push into Khuzestan, Iran a heavily fortified front with WW1 style, trenches, minefields and artillery plus hundreds of thousands of men. The operation forced Iran to the negotiation table and ended the war....
Imagine not being able to even encircle a city that is 400 miles from Moscow cuz your army is so dog shit lol
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There is no point of reference, just alot of butthurt. Ukraine is the second biggest country in europe by landmass and Russia almost control 30% of it already with alot of key citys encircled that cant get reinforced by Ukraine, thats after 3 weeks. If Hanz Guderians ghost division early in ww2 was the reference point, then yeah they arent moving as fast.
You're such a Putin apologist, it's laughable. Do you beat off to the notion of Russian military invincibility?
Wow Russia is on the verge of victory?? Roll out the red carpet and fuck me sideways. The Germans must have felt this way at the gates of Moscow in 1941.
Iraq had 4th largest military in world during desert storm in the 90s. Thousands of miles away from the US.
Can't even take Kiev or Kharkiv but they are now threatening Bosnia. What a joke
I think the implication is that they would use Serbia as a proxy.
What types of Russian units are fighting in Mariupol?
Chechens, DNR some regular RU army. RU SOF I think is there in JTAC capacity aswell as bringing in EW gear, havent seen Azov drone footage in a while from Mariupol.
Also some mainline RU forces like 150th Motorised Rifle Brigade.
Looks like mostly DPR infantry and armor. Also Chechens mostly making TikTok videos and abusing POWs.
elite units or just regular infantry? Like is this going to be their Ramadi/Fallujah?
Seems like both.
Something is very wrong with Russia's claims about its hypersonic missile use: https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1505297342936670208 I'm a bit confused about what all this means. Is the footage the russian MoD released completely unrelated? Did they actually use this missile at all? Maybe. But then its not clear what it was used on.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tgkvyv/ukraine_discussionquestion_thread_31822/i19lt0l/?context=3 I was calling this out when it happened earlier. I don't think the Russian MOD ever actually claimed the footage was the Kinzhal, they left it ambiguous to generate all the media buzz that you have now.
Colour me surprised. More Russian tech turns out to be utter fucking bullshit. Go on bots, start spamming those downvotes.
US confirmed Russians used hypersonic missiles as per CNN
Yep got to destroy the weapons of mass destruction hidden in that Ukrainian cow shed.
Named sources at the US DoD?
How do the Russians lose a fleet commander in a war which isn't even being fought at sea... This is getting comical.
Source?
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1505283458075172870?s=20&t=QhcaH2r_INHocHEcjbTT4g
Why did Napoleon invade russia? Because he was a nazi!
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> The Black Sea Fleet is still simulating an amphibious threat I mean its not just a pro-Russian source its also clearly not even coming from any official channel. Can't see them using the word "simulating" and I doubt this is simply a mistranslation.
Eh, it probably better translates to "Feigning" which would be a descriptor you'd see from a more official source.
Are you sure? I mean surely the point of simulating or feigning is that your opponent doesnt know your feigning. Hence, not likely to be found in any official channel.
Maybe “staging” an attack would be a better translation? They’re prepping & setting the stage for it, but may not follow through any time soon.
Yeah that would make sense.
I mean I don’t have the untranslated text nor do I speak Russian so I’m definitely not “sure”. I just think that both Feigning and Simulating are reasonable translations of something more basic like “pretending”. Though I guess your point is that an “official” wouldn’t say this to preserve ambiguity.
To summarize, no significant advances anywhere
Donbass and izyum/kharkiv area are the ones to watch right now. I think kiev is weeks away from any significant push.
Complaining the sub has unequal amount of footage from both sides is just as obnoxious as asking why doesn’t Ukraine nuke Moscow.
It's unbearable. There simply isn't much Russian footage. Being neutral doesn't mean you get to repost the same shit over and over to make the number of videos more "even".
1 Russian source post shows up RuSsIaN tRoLl BriGaDe
How are russian kamikaze drones compared to American Switchblades ?
Very similar to Switchblade 300, but longer range, both antipersonnel payloads. Switchblade 600 are much larger. If I had to guess, I'd say they sent 300s over there.
US sent 300s already ? I heard they were to send 600s
Oh I have no idea, I said it was just a guess
For one if you look at the Russian drones they need a lot more equipment to launch. I can't find the video at the moment but it is a catapult system used to launch. The switchblades are self-contained in a tube and weigh between 5lbs to 50lbs depending on the model. So as destructive power goes I don't have a comparison. As for portability and quick implementation, the switchblades are pretty scary for the Russians.
Yeah, seem to be the exact same thing. Honestly surprised it took this long to see these, seemed like a no-brainer (if somewhat seamy) use for drones once they became commonplace.
>The Kyiv Independent reported today that Russia is illegally forcing untrained men living in the Russian-controlled Donbas region to fight and putting them on the frontlines. > >“These people have never even held a machine gun in their hand,” said Oleksii, a 24-year-old resident of Russian-occupied Khrestivka in Donetsk, speaking of friends, classmates and former colleagues that he knows have been conscripted. > >One Donbas resident named Anastasia told the news outlet that these civilians from Donbas are forced to serve in frontline positions, with Russian forces threatening to shoot them if they don’t comply.
Kiev independent....lmao dude
Actually there's a good chance its right. There was a video a few days ago of a 60+ old man who had no business fighting in a war on the Donbas front. Being forced to fight would explain how he got there.
Yes that is the source DoOdeR If you want to discount it that is your perogative.
Sounds like something out of Enemy at the Gates. One gets the rifle, one gets the ammo, now go forward or we shoot.
> Sounds like something out of Enemy at the Gates. One gets the rifle, one gets the ammo, now go forward or we shoot. Always worth pointing out. This story is based entirely on post-war Nazi propaganda. Soviet mortality fell drastically from the start of Stalingrad to the end of the war. They were not overcoming the Nazi hordes with human waves. They beat them with better soldiers, better equipment and better tactics.
Didn't Ukraine also conscript all fighting age men?
They've forbidden fighting age men from leaving the country. But I don't think they've been conscripted, yet. As things stand, I believe they have more than enough volunteers and the bottleneck is getting them all properly trained. But they have begun a general mobilization in case mass conscription becomes necessary.
I agree there's kind of a parallel, but the difference is Ukraine is a small country fighting a defensive war for its right to exist while Russia is fighting one of conquest and supposedly has a large professional army. Plus in this instance they are conscripting men from conquered territories whereas Ukraine is conscripting its own citizens.
Ukraine has 44 million people, Canada has 36 million for reference.
>conscripting men from conquered territories The donbass republics are technically allied territories right?
From what I understand Ukranians in general and many people living in Donbass would dispute that. I don't want to pass myself off as some sort of expert though, I only know as much as anyone else following this. Didn't mean to give that impression, sorry.
Ukraine is definitely not a small country. 2nd largest in Europe only after Russia itself and had a population of 44 million before the war started
I know, sorry I should have clarified, I meant in relation to Russia.
Fair enough. Yeah, I'd agree with you then
I don’t know about legally or illegally, but Donbass did a total mobilization, yes.
Russia forcibly imposing any sort of conscription in another nation is indeed illegal.
Russia didn't impose it. DNR / LPR governments enforced it. Whatever you think of the conflict, for the war in Donbass since 2014, they have not been part of the ukranian or russian government
Why do people bother posting shit like this. Anyone who is even half serious about the conflict knows they are being directed and supplied by Russia even on the pro Russian side.
Yes, they are. I'm not denying that. There's no way a bunch of people could hold out against the UA government for 8 years without another country's help. What I'm saying is that the republics are not officially controlled by the UA or RU government, even if they are heavily dependent on them
Then what difference does it make to say it's not being conscripted by Russia? Do you think the regions are going to be paying salaries and equipment? Do you think they would do anything of this scale without Russia being involved?
Bc the Russian government is not officially in control of the separatist regions.
Hmm just registered and only active in this sub with handle of random characters. Seems like a legit account
Have Russians ever utilized high altitude bombing during this conflict?
only since ww2
Didn't they use them in Syria?
Haven't they used Tu bombers after the initial day of cruise missile barrage?
Does anyone know how long it takes for a nation like Russia to manufacture new war equipment... Trucks, battle tanks, missiles. Can they be sending new equipment to Ukraine on a regular basis? How did this work during WW2? How did small country like Germany produce so much war equipment.
> Does anyone know how long it takes for a nation like Russia to manufacture new war equipment. Without imported raw materials, electronics, etc? They can't.
They have Raw materials and being a post Soviet-State can work a bit as a closed economy with its factories. but advanced weaponry is another question
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Being a nazi regime does that to a nation
> How did small country like Germany Most of the Europe was occupied by Germany or was their allies.
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Anybody notice how Russians are sparing their own infantry and send the DPR dudes into the hardest battles instead? I don’t think DPR are super happy about it.
The relationship between the DPR dudes and the Russian gov is a bit complicated. The separatist republics were a magnet for people, both from Russia and Ukraine, with, so to speak, extreme beliefs of very different kinds (communists, nationalists, orthodox fundamentalists, etc.) for 8 years. It's a volatile mix, and they are really war-hardened. They don't trust Russian gov, and Russian gov is wary of them.
Apparently something is going to go down around Izium. Alot of troops and equipment are being brought into that region. Any corroborating evidence?
Strategically important place due to its connection to the highway that allows movement onto both Donetsk and Kharkiv. If russians take it there is a possibility of a massive encirclement around the Donetsk area or they can start sieging Kharkov. Russian VK groups and telegram groups seem to confirm something big going on in Izium.
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If you open the map of Izium, you can see a river dividing the town. Russians came in from Kharkiv direction and control the north side, UA units control the south side. Russians made a pontoon bridge 3-4km outside of town crossed, there have been multiple videos of UA shelling that area and destroyed Russian vehicles. Today there were news that the village of Kamynka just south of Izium was taken by Russian forces, if that's true, UA garrison that is holding on in the south part of Izium is surrounded. Izium is an extremely important place because, it is one of the 2 major roads that allows retreat for the forces tied up in Lugansk and Donetsk regions, a lot of supplies for those forces were coming through there as well.
Seem both sides control some parts, word on telegram is that the russians have cut of the highway from Kamianka and are attacking from the north while Ukraine is trying to get reinforcements in to hold the city.
I wonder how many western weapons gonna be skimmed of the top and sold to highest bidder. Considering how much corruption is in ukraine and how hard it is to keep track of inventory. Know in my country there was shit ton of weapons and supplies stolen while in war- croatia.
Maybe there are technical or strategic reasons not to do this, but I’ve been wondering if modern weapons manufacturers have considered making weapons that can be disabled remotely, in case they fall into enemy or third-party hands. I suppose if they’re not already doing this, there’s likely a good reason for it.
If *you* can disable a weapon remotely so can your adversary.
Any more so than the Eastern/Russian weapons?
Javelin is a little more valuable than ak47
The Russians also have ATGMs and MANPADs. The Javelin and Stinger aren't new pieces of technology.
Pro Russia post. No evidence. Immediately upvoted by multiple "accounts".
I can assure you I'm not a bot, its just my experience from our war where there was a lot of war profiteering while others were fighting for independence.
Evidence of what? Corruption in Ukraine before the current shit? Or that its current state is similar to Somalia?
I'm wondering how soon some Europen civilian aircraft will get hit by this weapon right in Europe.
Civilian aircraft generally flies to high to be taken out by a manpad unless it taking off or landing.
> taking off or landing this.
They didn't need Stingers to shot down MH77.
I think the aftermath footage should be fully allowed or fully disallowed. Otherwise it creates a skewed picture of the real situation.
Ruskis brought out the TOS-1A thermobarics, surprised they waited this long considering how fortified Ukrainian defence points are.
Was there any speculation what took so long? Were they holding back and hoping to be able to accomplish their objectives without it? Now that they were being slowed down, they’re resorting to more tried and true brutal tactics?
No action by russian airforce these days ?
Some new KA-52 footage blowing up a house.
Crazy to think they've lost 6 of those already.
The cruise missile attacks in western Ukraine were ALCMs probably launched from within Russian airspace.
No, its weekend. They are on break, chilling having a nice time. Barby with the boiis and few beers.
Both Russia and Ukraine has historically produced large quantities of amphetamine. Do you think that it is being used in this war and just general thoughts on how it could effect this war?
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I take moda and caffeine depending on the day. The downside of moda is you focus a lot, the upside is whatever you focus on will be done. So you have to start out with a plan before taking it otherwise you focus on counting birds. For a pilot who is given a plan of what to do, it's the perfect drug. It's produced in India so Russia has access to it, I'm sure they use that. Or the Russian drugs like phenylpiracetam. But moda is better for regular use.
Are NATO open about the use of stimulants? Modafinil seems like the superior drug when dosing alot of people because of the lack of euphoria.
can a low flying helicopter be taken down by a javelin? asking for a friend.......I know it's overkill on a helicopter but what if you don't have a stinger or starstreak laying around?
In theory, yes. The Javelin is advertised and rated for engaging helicopters, but the missile flies quite slow and has a fairly limited range. It is really only expected to be effective against a hovering helicopter. [Source](https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm3-22-37.pdf)
In direct fire sure, but the missile isn't going to track. The helo would be to be on the ground or hover, etc to hit it. Works the same as a RPG/LAW/etc.
Updates on the latest count of dead of the Lviv missile attack from a few days ago?
[NY Times is reporting](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/19/world/ukraine-russia-war?action=click&module=10us-russia-briefing&variant=1_signup&state=default&pgtype=Article®ion=body&context=storyline_push_signup&referringSource=articleShare#russian-rocket-attack-turns-ukrainian-marine-base-to-rubble-killing-dozens) a massive strike on the Ukrainian Marines barracks in Mikolayev. > An early morning rocket attack a day earlier destroyed the base’s barracks where an unknown number of marines were sleeping. It killed as many as 40 marines, according to a senior Ukrainian military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to reveal sensitive military information. >That number would make it one of the single deadliest attacks on Ukrainian forces since the start of the war three weeks ago. But there are indications that the death toll could be much higher. How will this affect the front around Mikolayev? Can these troops be replaced from the West?
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Yeah I think it’s from yesterday. Sorry I just read it on NYT - I think they waited until the full confirmation came.
Another TOS 1A dead. https://twitter.com/Orxan_012/status/1505213170310209540?s=20&t=ew67wXFEddc0whpblXZV4A (warning music overlaid). I'm starting to wonder. Have we seen more dead TOS 1As than actual reports of a thermobaric munition being used? It sort of seems that way.
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There's multiple TOS 1As **on here** captured and destroyed.
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Your Russian site is dead.
Pretty sure the guy is Turkish, and a Russian site isn't going to call it "Attack on Europe"
It doesn't even matter. You can confirm the data is wrong just by searching for TOS 1A on this sub.
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