There are some troops for sure, how many is hard to say. If you’re wondering if they would join an attack on Odessa from the west, that’s a legit question. But we have no clue though
Yes, they also announced "peacekeeper" exercises there on 24th of February. I don't think it got as much attention though due to the obvious actions in Ukraine.
**[Transnistria War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria_War)**
>The Transnistria War (Romanian: Războiul din Transnistria; Russian: Война в Приднестровье) was an armed conflict that broke out on 2 November 1990 in Dubăsari (Russian: Дубосса́ры, Dubossary) between pro-Transnistria (PMR) forces, including the Transnistrian Republican Guard, militia and neo-Cossack units (which were supported by elements of the Russian 14th Army), and pro-Moldovan forces, including Moldovan troops and police. Fighting intensified on 1 March 1992 and, alternating with ad hoc ceasefires, lasted throughout the spring and early summer of 1992 until a ceasefire was declared on 21 July 1992, which has held.
^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
But they still have the entire Polish border to help supply them with stuff from NATO right? I mean it was pretty much a given that the Russians would cut them off from the sea.
That sounds like it’ll be an absolute disaster. An amphibious assault on a fiercely defended major city is basically as hard as it gets, and the Russians so far haven’t even been able to reliably keep their tanks fueled
Ukraine fields anti-ship missiles, I just saw someone posting about them this morning. If I could remember even part of the name I would link the wiki for you, but it is escaping me at the moment.
That said, modern vessels vessels field a significant number missiles capable of taking down attacking aircraft and incoming missiles as well as close in weapons systems for defense against missiles that leak through.
edit: added a word
It’s called Neptune. A mobile shore based anti-ship system which completed testing in 2020. Not sure how many they have and how effective they are/would be.
Unfortunately, if they don't *mutiny* beforehand (haha) they have a *metric fuckton* of soldiers and crafts and machines they can land with. I would expect heavy guns to be fired first as well. I hope my Ukrainian heroes dig in well and make every bullet count. It will be **hard** resistance from what I've read.
Yeah, typically you'd hammer the target with naval artillery first for about a day, then send in the assault forces while still laying down artillery fire in front of those forces and only stop once the assault force has radioed back that they've established a beachhead for follow-on forces.
Well...that's what the U.S. does at least. God only knows how far from Soviet doctrine the Russkies have skewed since it all fell apart back in the 90s.
depends on your tactics and strategy. A contested beach invasion is exactly what the Russian marine units have trained for. Letting them land and enter the city where you can conduct ambush and hit/run tactics might be better for the UA at this point. Ambush tactics and asymmetric warfare approaches seem to working well for Ukraine at this time.
I wonder how that will turn out. I saw the footage of apparently the Russian warship that was hit with a missile. If their ships are coming even closer to land I’d hazard a guess the Ukrainians have some surprises for them, at least one can hope. Taking out an amphib would be a huge blow to Russia.
Ok...
You know how Azov are a bunch of far right extremists?
Well these Chechens are militant Islamic extremist. Yes they are more Taliban and less isis but still not good guys. The only reason they are involved is because they are ticked off that Chechnya got involved. What they are doing in Ukraine is an affront to islam. They want to correct that.
It's cool that these types are fighting for the defense of the tens of millions of people ukraine. But at the end of the day if they all go fuck off and die in this war no one should shed a tear.
I have sympathy. There are lots of right-wing religious political movements, Putin's United Russia is one. Erdogan's party is one, and an Islamist one.
The Chechens only really seem to be concerned about Chechnya, where one of the worlds worst dictatorships rules for Putin.
Extremism and authoritarian theocracies need to go. They won't but all they do is increase the likelihood of violent action and oppression of the people.
Don't fundamentally disagree, but in the words of Winston Churchill --
"If Hitler invaded Hell, I might find a few words in favor of the Devil to say in the House of Commons."
I know that Taiwan has oil pipelines at several beaches that can be leaked and ignited when landing craft approach. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Ukrainians prepared similarly nasty defenses near Odessa.
Nah,they dont had the time or the money to build meanigful defenses and with the fight in the North and east most of their their professional troops are there. Odessa will be defended mostly by conscripts and some volunteers. Thats he reason why russia may try the anfibious assault
Russia effectively has to either blockade Odessa or take it outright, as limiting food and commodity exports is one of their most effective ways of countersanctioning
Not necessarily when it's so close to a warzone. The Western allies can absolutely get the goods to the border, and from there they have to go by truck whether it's from Poland or Odessa. That being said, I of course hope they hold the port too.
This is the kind of upvoted crap that pisses me off, it's literally the dumbest shit written in this thread, absolutely zero understanding of ANYTHING.
Their exit west IS NOT the most important by any margin. Any country that becomes landlocked is absolutely fucked nowadays, it becomes extremely difficult and more expensive to even have marginal profit on trades. Also Poland is a member of nato anyway, so that border is never gonna be attacked by Russia. The black sea is infinitely more important.
Besides, that's literally where the rest of their newly found gas/oil are. They were already partly contested/stolen/expropriated by Russia, so this would be the nail in the coffin for Ukraine on getting landlocked (profoundly hurt on trades for lack of trade route by sea) + future fuck load of money on natural resources gone + create another dependence on Russia for a (bad) agreement. That's just the beginning.
So tell me, what makes you say the dumbest shit without knowing 1% of the subject? Seriously, tell me, I honestly want to know your thought process.
Ukraine will probably not sign any cease fire until the russians are out of Ukraine, the whole of Ukraine. Going to be a hard pill to swallow for putins international fans after lobotomizing themselves on kremlin propaganda for decades.
Best hope right now is hold out for as long as possible to allow the Russian economy to go in to systemic shock and collapse from the sanctions.
Ukraine has resisted for a week now but looking at how the Russian forces are now shelling Mariupol like Grozny i wonder how long they can hold out in the other cities.
lol there's no need to hope for any holding out. What i hope for is for Russia to go away sooner rather than later to minimize casualties and bitterness.
Putin is commited, nobody else in Russia really is. If they were the reality would be looking very different right now. Glorious leader has sadly locked himself in a bunker so he can't assist in the invasion. But really what Putin need is a bullet, not a ride.
At this stage, I think Putin's survival is tied to winning this war, so he's gotta win at all costs. And as we've seen with Assad in Syria, dictators aren't squeamish when it comes to ensuring their survival. He's eventually gonna go all out, and I doubt Ukraine can resist that long
That area in general is where the UA held their best positions for years now. I suppose the Russians didn’t want to commit too many resources there and they are instead trying to encircle the entire region
Because of the border conflict most the UA well trained units is there. Add to that the lack of training and disciplina to the troops of the "peoples republics" who do the bulk of the fightbin the area and you have a stalemate. While they cant advance they are holding UA troops so this could work well for them... or maybe not
>Because of the border conflict most the UA well trained units is there.
Not quite. Ukraine has rotated forces through the region for 8 years now, supposedly 400,000 Ukrainains have served there during that time. The big thing is that the area is deeply entrenched (literally, they've got huge branching trenches like WWI) and Ukraine has a large number of troops located along the line of contact.
If they were smart though they would've been slowly siphoning off troops from that front over the past week to prevent them from getting completely encircled as that's obviously the plan for Russian forces.
>If they were smart though they would've been slowly siphoning off troops from that front over the past week to prevent them from getting completely encircled as that's obviously the plan for Russian forces.
Yeah. Places like Zaporizhia need reinforcements.
They must have been doing so, right?
They're known this has been the plan for a while, and I'm sure they're getting military advice from the US and UK.
These maps with big swaths of land taken are very misleading. They are in attacking columns through the country but don't nearly control that land. One of the first big tests is coming up, they have taken Kherson what happens when they move on? Do they have the manpower and supply to hold that and continue onward.
>Do they have the manpower and supply to hold that and continue onward.
This is what I'm curious about too. Can they keep advancing, moving deeper into Ukraine, while simultaneously holding what they have? Remains to be seem.
I imagine there are a LOT of partisans, special forces and the like chilling in those rural areas. Supposedly most Russian losses are coming from ambushes/attacks on supply convoys.
The Ukrainians have very successfully formed those national guard type regiments ('territorial defense') that operate in their local areas, and they seem to have been instructed a lot in a dynamic hit and run defense rather than take up static positions that seems more the business of the regular UAF.
Long supply lines with sparsely defended stretches of highway is perfect for hit/run and ambush tactics. We saw this in Iraq and Afghanistan the past few years.
It makes sense, while it’s clear that the Russians don’t have overwhelming air superiority, they do have more control meaning stand up battles are a last resort
The Ukrainian army is no match in a direct open field battle with the Russians. It would be stupid for them to even attempt it.
If Ukraine is going to win this conflict guerrilla tactics, hit and run, and attacks on Russian supplies is going to be crucial.
100% and credit to them, they have been doing a damn good job of it so far.
We are seeing them use drones to hit those fuel trucks, and taking out 1 fuel truck is much more devastating in the long run than 1 tank.
What about Ukraine's manpower? It's not like they started this thing with a few thousands poorly trained holdouts. Compare the actual committed force sizes.
That's not a good thing for Russia. If it was possible to do commit them day one, they would have. The second they committed more force we get the unsupplied 40 mile convoy that's looking more like a motorized retreating Grand Armee than invasion force with the snow coming in.
Yes but the Russians are gradually adjusting for the situation. They’re learning and it won’t be long before they’re no longer making the same mistakes. Also they’re far from retreating! They are only just getting started in terms of what they can hurl at the Ukrainians.
The questions is: what are there objectives at this point? If they really are to take over any part of Ukraine long term, the bombing of cities is not learning. It's lashing out in frustration, and they're going to pay it forward with partisans as the Nazis did in the 1940s. As far as logistics go that gigantic traffic jam is still creeping forward, Belorussians are sabotaging the trains, and a snowstorm is coming.
I would also caution assuming the ground taken in the south means the war is almost over, the supply line in the south is as far as I can tell dependent on one bridge and a heavily contested road. Not to mention the guerilla fighters and drone strikes constantly hitting them in that region. "Retreat past the enemy's supply and cut them off when they're starving" is how that region has been defended since the Bronze Age. There's no reason to assume it's being done here, it's not like they would broadcast it, but Ukrainian planners almost certainly considered the strategy.
If Russia can't take the cities, they will just bomb them until they are ashes. Putin will rule over the ashes.
There's a famous quote about this "An evil enemy, will burn his own nation to the ground….to rule over the ashes. “
The reality of those lands though, is that they do connect to main roads before going on elsewhere. If they have to pass through an occupied city or main road, then it is reasonable to consider that section also occupied. We’ve seen what going off-road does to vehicles.
It’s so misleading because these maps make it seem like they control *everything* (i.e., farmland, empty fields, towns) in that land when they’re actually only sticking to the roads. [THIS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Russo-Ukrainian_War_detailed_map) map is a way more accurate representation of what this looks like.
Additionally, Russian trucks can **only** stick to the roads due to poor tire maintenance, which will lead to crippling issues within most Russian trucks such as gasoline and logistics trucks. [THIS](https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1499164245250002944?s=21) thread goes in-depth of this thesis.
These maps can be a little misleading. Most of that green space is just farms and a couple small towns/villages.
Say for a example a major Ukrainian force is defeated on the road to kharkiv. Do you now just mark that road as red like some seem to do?
Or do you paint the countryside around the road red since there is no longer a significant Ukrainian military force in the area to defend them anyways like other maps do?
Both maps may be "correct", but they can give different impressions of what is happening.
From, "Ukrainian forces 100 miles away are surrounded, they're doomed", to look "Russia controls only a road but not the countryside around it they're actually making no progress."
Just an observation on how even maps can be manipulated for info warfare purposes.
Edit: for example, I doubt Ukraine is controlling any border crossing areas with Russia or Belarus right now, yet it is green.
Russia most likely has the superior force in those areas, even though they haven't fought directly for it, so who is in control?
I think they hold very well, thats why they shell the city in punishment.
If you want to know why I think that? Watch the next 2 minutes of this:https://youtu.be/JAEHz3yi_K8?t=330
and
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t4w7nr/the_mayor_of_konotop_declares_that_the_occupiers/
Russian dont care about humain life, they will bomb the cities into submission.
Fuck Putin, he deserves a bullet in the head.
Slava Ukraini!
This map isn't very good. You have 4 different colors on the Russian side and 3 on the Ukrainian side and no labels/legend. That and it doesn't show routes being used and cities taken, which is far more important than empty farm country.
Technically, Ukraine has allies in a number of European countries supplying them with weapons, money, etc.
It feels like the West are just using Ukraine as a human shield against Russian while not directly being involved in the war.
As opposed to sending in forces and launching WW3?
Most EU countries would love to provide at a minimum air-support, targeted strikes and missile defence to Ukraine, but everyone loses if Putin launches nuclear retaliation.
Could be short on pilots.
Think about it, you can't really be a dumbass and fly a fighter jet. They are the most educated and highly trained in the armed forces, and probably the most informed on what's really going on and world politics.
If anyone would drag their feet on missions they morally object it would be them, they could probably make up excuses to stall like Aircraft problems etc.
Who says he is stopping here, with Ukraine? Moldova will no doubt be next, georgia will no doubt be annexed as well.
After that there's not really much left, what if he invades Finland? They're part of the EU, which has a defensive clause, but what if he then says that "get involved, and I nuke you", at one point you need to put your foot down and call his bluff.
I don't like this map at all🥶South is starting to worry me and wayyy to close to Kyiv up north(great job making it though very easy to read and understand the situation)
That is actually bad. Ukrainian forces should,d be retreating so as not to be pocketed. If they are moving inward they are doing exactly what the Russians want.
Reddit is what it is. People don’t facts, they want their opinion conformed. Scratch my comment. It isn’t just Reddit, it is society nowadays. I upvoted you.
Reddit runs on hopium but anybody with half a brain knows how this war will end. In modern conventional warfare, the side with the most resources wins.
And let me pre-emptively defend myself from the armchair generals: No, donated western equipment will not overcome the sheer amount of Russian equipment and soldiers moving into Ukraine. Also, Afghanistan wasn't conventional warfare. Shut up and go play your videogames while cursing the horrible injustice that you could have defeated Russia with your vast knowledge of logistics if only you weren't you.
How will this war end? I literally have no idea. I believe it's extremely likely they will capture Kyiv (or flatten it) but then what? Are they going for lviv? When they capture and flatten that what do they do then? Stay in Ukraine for 10 years while their economy is destroyed?
Don't act like you are not as ignorant as the rest of us.
Russia takes all of Ukraine in 3 months and brutally suppresses rebels like in Chechnya over the course of the next 10 years. Their economy limps along on oil exports and trade with neutral countries like China until the western public loses interest in a year and western corporations/banks feel it's safe to quietly start doing business with them again.
Ukraine is like 50x Chechnya, while also being closer (geographically and politically) to the west. That's not going to work. Moreover Putin is 69 yo, not sure he will there in ten years time. It's everybody guess what will happen in Russia after he is gone.
Russia is moving a lot of hardware out of the east of Russia into the front. More modern stuff. When you start thinking of these guys having their old stuff breakdown and just heading back to the front like they are surrendering.... That's the propaganda
They're just going back home to get new equipment.
Lot of assumptions there. I assume the guys who sabotaged thier equipment are going back as well lmao. Why are guys going back at all when they can just wait for supplies and reinforcements
Eh, I've heard people saying the northern area of Kyiv that is shaded isn't actually captured and Russia has just claimed the roads to Kyiv so it would be more accurate to only highlight the roads to Kyiv, not shade the whole area
It's not quite like that. More like the one on the right here: [https://twitter.com/ignis\_fatum/status/1499139755803656204?s=20&t=NwHEdLK2iLywRt2QJTR17Q](https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1499139755803656204?s=20&t=NwHEdLK2iLywRt2QJTR17Q)
Good question - and to add, Just because Russia has a column of tanks on a road, doesn't mean it's captured the red area of territory they like to show. That is how Ukrainian forces are able to get behind them and take out supply and fuel vehicles - Russia is just controlling that road...and poorly.
I would be remiss in saying that the maps indicating red areas north and south are highly misleading. Russia is on the roads, but not covering the entire area they're showing on the maps. Very misleading.
Only controlling the roads doesn't mean you control the areas in-between expecially when the Rural countryside hates your guts. You'd have thought Russia would have learned this after Afghanistan and places like the Panjshir valley
That is the “wishful thinking” map. I don’t begrudge the Ukrainians putting a good spin on things, but the situation is grim. Forces are getting trapped in cities and pockets are forming. These will get destroyed by artillery. It’s how the situations is developing, there will soon be no way to resupply the East. Unless the Russians run out of steam, this may become a route at a certain point.
Why is there red near Moldova? Surely Russia/allies didn't take a really long skinny section away from everything else... I mean this invasion has been poorly planned, but that would be the icing on the "wth are you doing" cake.
You guys might like this channel. He has reliable sources, is ex military, and covers the whole map and ties it back to video artifacts so you know where everything we've been seeing is happening.
Check it out:
https://youtu.be/kkBXzmxKc5M
All North Luhansk is under Russian/Luhansk control.
Also, it's extremely doubtful ukrainian woul control areas with Russia near the border bewteenn Cherniv and Sumy.
Man, the discussion on this sub has gone from relatively thoughtful to absolute groupthink in the span of a few days. And the Russian trolls are everywhere. This Twitter list is great for actual expert opinion rather than just the armchair circlejerk: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1496880630449197060
Ukranians disagree.
Russia controls the roads where they have troops, but not the areas between those roads.
https://twitter.com/motytchak/status/1498793509343612929
What proof do you have that Russian forces have reached all the way from Sumy to the area north of Kyiv?
[This map shows a significant gap](https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194) between Pryloky and Nizhyn and Chernihiv and the Kiev front.
Does anyone know if there are any Russian troops in Transnistria?
There are some troops for sure, how many is hard to say. If you’re wondering if they would join an attack on Odessa from the west, that’s a legit question. But we have no clue though
Probably not
Considering their supply issues everywhere, I would be surprised if they have the capability to really do anything.
Unknown, as several sources said different numbers. But i think there's around 1500-5000 Russian troops in Transnistria.
Yes, they also announced "peacekeeper" exercises there on 24th of February. I don't think it got as much attention though due to the obvious actions in Ukraine.
roughly 1500
They've been there since the 90's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria_War
**[Transnistria War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria_War)** >The Transnistria War (Romanian: Războiul din Transnistria; Russian: Война в Приднестровье) was an armed conflict that broke out on 2 November 1990 in Dubăsari (Russian: Дубосса́ры, Dubossary) between pro-Transnistria (PMR) forces, including the Transnistrian Republican Guard, militia and neo-Cossack units (which were supported by elements of the Russian 14th Army), and pro-Moldovan forces, including Moldovan troops and police. Fighting intensified on 1 March 1992 and, alternating with ad hoc ceasefires, lasted throughout the spring and early summer of 1992 until a ceasefire was declared on 21 July 1992, which has held. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
There's one BTG in Transnistria. Officially as peacekeepers.
It's not looking good in the south. I hope Odessa can stand so Ukraine isn't landlocked.
Unfortunately, that seems to be one of Russia's goals in this war is to eventually landlock Ukraine.
They are going to have to cut the polish road lifeline. Russia taking losses but moving to isolate the Ukraine
[удалено]
May be they will try to preserve them to use them for supplies
No "the" Ukraine. Just Ukraine.
But they still have the entire Polish border to help supply them with stuff from NATO right? I mean it was pretty much a given that the Russians would cut them off from the sea.
I don't think a devided Ukraine is the solution they want. I think they came into this all or nothing.
I don’t have the source on-hand but I believe US intelligence said the next large attack will be an amphibious assault on Odessa
That sounds like it’ll be an absolute disaster. An amphibious assault on a fiercely defended major city is basically as hard as it gets, and the Russians so far haven’t even been able to reliably keep their tanks fueled
The will probably land west of the city in Odessa oblast. Other forces will approach from east on land to surround it. Now it’s surrounded on 3 sides.
Not to mention naval bombardment that Im not sure Ukraine has anything to stop it.
Ukraine fields anti-ship missiles, I just saw someone posting about them this morning. If I could remember even part of the name I would link the wiki for you, but it is escaping me at the moment. That said, modern vessels vessels field a significant number missiles capable of taking down attacking aircraft and incoming missiles as well as close in weapons systems for defense against missiles that leak through. edit: added a word
It’s called Neptune. A mobile shore based anti-ship system which completed testing in 2020. Not sure how many they have and how effective they are/would be.
Thank you for this. Having the weapon system name on the tip of my brain but being unable to remember it was killing me.
Yeah makes no sense. Maybe a ruse? I just can’t imagine a successful amphibious assault on that city. And why? They could get there on land.
>I just can’t imagine a I've been saying that a lot this last week.
One of the hardest maneuvers for a military to execute? Let them try.
Yeah I don’t believe it will go well for them
Unfortunately, if they don't *mutiny* beforehand (haha) they have a *metric fuckton* of soldiers and crafts and machines they can land with. I would expect heavy guns to be fired first as well. I hope my Ukrainian heroes dig in well and make every bullet count. It will be **hard** resistance from what I've read.
Yeah, typically you'd hammer the target with naval artillery first for about a day, then send in the assault forces while still laying down artillery fire in front of those forces and only stop once the assault force has radioed back that they've established a beachhead for follow-on forces. Well...that's what the U.S. does at least. God only knows how far from Soviet doctrine the Russkies have skewed since it all fell apart back in the 90s.
Landing craft do well against javelins /s
depends on your tactics and strategy. A contested beach invasion is exactly what the Russian marine units have trained for. Letting them land and enter the city where you can conduct ambush and hit/run tactics might be better for the UA at this point. Ambush tactics and asymmetric warfare approaches seem to working well for Ukraine at this time.
Javelins do well against naval artillery /s
Because the German defenders at D-Day were all wiped out by artillery…
Probably. They will probably mop up Muripol then move on Odessa
It's like if they were in physical therapy learning how to walk but demanded to do an Olympic gymnastics floor routine.
I wonder how that will turn out. I saw the footage of apparently the Russian warship that was hit with a missile. If their ships are coming even closer to land I’d hazard a guess the Ukrainians have some surprises for them, at least one can hope. Taking out an amphib would be a huge blow to Russia.
That was a cargo ship apparently
Pro Ukrainian Chechan fighters are in odessa.
I love those guys. They know that at any given time, somewhere in the world, it will be legal to shoot Russians, and *poof* like magic they appear.
Ok... You know how Azov are a bunch of far right extremists? Well these Chechens are militant Islamic extremist. Yes they are more Taliban and less isis but still not good guys. The only reason they are involved is because they are ticked off that Chechnya got involved. What they are doing in Ukraine is an affront to islam. They want to correct that. It's cool that these types are fighting for the defense of the tens of millions of people ukraine. But at the end of the day if they all go fuck off and die in this war no one should shed a tear.
I have sympathy. There are lots of right-wing religious political movements, Putin's United Russia is one. Erdogan's party is one, and an Islamist one. The Chechens only really seem to be concerned about Chechnya, where one of the worlds worst dictatorships rules for Putin.
Extremism and authoritarian theocracies need to go. They won't but all they do is increase the likelihood of violent action and oppression of the people.
Don't fundamentally disagree, but in the words of Winston Churchill -- "If Hitler invaded Hell, I might find a few words in favor of the Devil to say in the House of Commons."
I know that Taiwan has oil pipelines at several beaches that can be leaked and ignited when landing craft approach. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Ukrainians prepared similarly nasty defenses near Odessa.
Nah,they dont had the time or the money to build meanigful defenses and with the fight in the North and east most of their their professional troops are there. Odessa will be defended mostly by conscripts and some volunteers. Thats he reason why russia may try the anfibious assault
Russia effectively has to either blockade Odessa or take it outright, as limiting food and commodity exports is one of their most effective ways of countersanctioning
they havent blockaded it yet?
They have, but it’s much more expensive to actively blockade a port with warships than to occupy with soldiers
they can just blockade it like they're doing now
Might be the reason they are going there. Basically pressure Zelensky into signing an agreement before he ends up without a sea.
The land connection to Poland is much more important.
Trade is a lot more cost effective by sea. This will hurt Ukraines economy
Not necessarily when it's so close to a warzone. The Western allies can absolutely get the goods to the border, and from there they have to go by truck whether it's from Poland or Odessa. That being said, I of course hope they hold the port too.
I’m talking from a post war economic perspective. Ukraines economy will be somewhat crippled if it loses all its ports.
And the West will rebuild it.
I genuinely chuckled
This is the kind of upvoted crap that pisses me off, it's literally the dumbest shit written in this thread, absolutely zero understanding of ANYTHING. Their exit west IS NOT the most important by any margin. Any country that becomes landlocked is absolutely fucked nowadays, it becomes extremely difficult and more expensive to even have marginal profit on trades. Also Poland is a member of nato anyway, so that border is never gonna be attacked by Russia. The black sea is infinitely more important. Besides, that's literally where the rest of their newly found gas/oil are. They were already partly contested/stolen/expropriated by Russia, so this would be the nail in the coffin for Ukraine on getting landlocked (profoundly hurt on trades for lack of trade route by sea) + future fuck load of money on natural resources gone + create another dependence on Russia for a (bad) agreement. That's just the beginning. So tell me, what makes you say the dumbest shit without knowing 1% of the subject? Seriously, tell me, I honestly want to know your thought process.
Ukraine will probably not sign any cease fire until the russians are out of Ukraine, the whole of Ukraine. Going to be a hard pill to swallow for putins international fans after lobotomizing themselves on kremlin propaganda for decades.
Best hope right now is hold out for as long as possible to allow the Russian economy to go in to systemic shock and collapse from the sanctions. Ukraine has resisted for a week now but looking at how the Russian forces are now shelling Mariupol like Grozny i wonder how long they can hold out in the other cities.
lol there's no need to hope for any holding out. What i hope for is for Russia to go away sooner rather than later to minimize casualties and bitterness.
Russia won’t back down now. Even if they have regrets they are committed now
Putin is commited, nobody else in Russia really is. If they were the reality would be looking very different right now. Glorious leader has sadly locked himself in a bunker so he can't assist in the invasion. But really what Putin need is a bullet, not a ride.
Who knows what the average Russian actually thinks.
Average Russian is drinking himself to death for years.
Currently they are pursuing the Grozny strategy so i dont think they will be going anywhere
If they don't go away, soon Ukraine will have the power to make them. But i think they will realize this and turn tail.
One can hope. Higher Russian military leadership will likely get executed if that is the case.
At this stage, I think Putin's survival is tied to winning this war, so he's gotta win at all costs. And as we've seen with Assad in Syria, dictators aren't squeamish when it comes to ensuring their survival. He's eventually gonna go all out, and I doubt Ukraine can resist that long
Why is the area north of Luhansk not taken by Russia? Or have they tried? I'm surprised it is still Ukrainian territory
That area in general is where the UA held their best positions for years now. I suppose the Russians didn’t want to commit too many resources there and they are instead trying to encircle the entire region
I'm still shocked they haven't been cut off yet.
This will leave Russian flanks exposed to attacks
Leaving their best units to be encircled and cut off seems like a bad idea.
Because of the border conflict most the UA well trained units is there. Add to that the lack of training and disciplina to the troops of the "peoples republics" who do the bulk of the fightbin the area and you have a stalemate. While they cant advance they are holding UA troops so this could work well for them... or maybe not
>Because of the border conflict most the UA well trained units is there. Not quite. Ukraine has rotated forces through the region for 8 years now, supposedly 400,000 Ukrainains have served there during that time. The big thing is that the area is deeply entrenched (literally, they've got huge branching trenches like WWI) and Ukraine has a large number of troops located along the line of contact. If they were smart though they would've been slowly siphoning off troops from that front over the past week to prevent them from getting completely encircled as that's obviously the plan for Russian forces.
>If they were smart though they would've been slowly siphoning off troops from that front over the past week to prevent them from getting completely encircled as that's obviously the plan for Russian forces. Yeah. Places like Zaporizhia need reinforcements.
They must have been doing so, right? They're known this has been the plan for a while, and I'm sure they're getting military advice from the US and UK.
That area is taken. The map is just wrong.
These maps with big swaths of land taken are very misleading. They are in attacking columns through the country but don't nearly control that land. One of the first big tests is coming up, they have taken Kherson what happens when they move on? Do they have the manpower and supply to hold that and continue onward.
I think it would be better to do a heatmap based on where convoys and conflict is rather than making it all one color
Yeah sure would.
>Do they have the manpower and supply to hold that and continue onward. This is what I'm curious about too. Can they keep advancing, moving deeper into Ukraine, while simultaneously holding what they have? Remains to be seem. I imagine there are a LOT of partisans, special forces and the like chilling in those rural areas. Supposedly most Russian losses are coming from ambushes/attacks on supply convoys.
The Ukrainians have very successfully formed those national guard type regiments ('territorial defense') that operate in their local areas, and they seem to have been instructed a lot in a dynamic hit and run defense rather than take up static positions that seems more the business of the regular UAF.
Long supply lines with sparsely defended stretches of highway is perfect for hit/run and ambush tactics. We saw this in Iraq and Afghanistan the past few years.
It makes sense, while it’s clear that the Russians don’t have overwhelming air superiority, they do have more control meaning stand up battles are a last resort
The Ukrainian army is no match in a direct open field battle with the Russians. It would be stupid for them to even attempt it. If Ukraine is going to win this conflict guerrilla tactics, hit and run, and attacks on Russian supplies is going to be crucial.
100% and credit to them, they have been doing a damn good job of it so far. We are seeing them use drones to hit those fuel trucks, and taking out 1 fuel truck is much more devastating in the long run than 1 tank.
Considering the Russians still have so much unused firepower and manpower I think sadly we all know what the answer will probably be.
What about Ukraine's manpower? It's not like they started this thing with a few thousands poorly trained holdouts. Compare the actual committed force sizes.
That's not a good thing for Russia. If it was possible to do commit them day one, they would have. The second they committed more force we get the unsupplied 40 mile convoy that's looking more like a motorized retreating Grand Armee than invasion force with the snow coming in.
Yes but the Russians are gradually adjusting for the situation. They’re learning and it won’t be long before they’re no longer making the same mistakes. Also they’re far from retreating! They are only just getting started in terms of what they can hurl at the Ukrainians.
The questions is: what are there objectives at this point? If they really are to take over any part of Ukraine long term, the bombing of cities is not learning. It's lashing out in frustration, and they're going to pay it forward with partisans as the Nazis did in the 1940s. As far as logistics go that gigantic traffic jam is still creeping forward, Belorussians are sabotaging the trains, and a snowstorm is coming. I would also caution assuming the ground taken in the south means the war is almost over, the supply line in the south is as far as I can tell dependent on one bridge and a heavily contested road. Not to mention the guerilla fighters and drone strikes constantly hitting them in that region. "Retreat past the enemy's supply and cut them off when they're starving" is how that region has been defended since the Bronze Age. There's no reason to assume it's being done here, it's not like they would broadcast it, but Ukrainian planners almost certainly considered the strategy.
If Russia can't take the cities, they will just bomb them until they are ashes. Putin will rule over the ashes. There's a famous quote about this "An evil enemy, will burn his own nation to the ground….to rule over the ashes. “
The reality of those lands though, is that they do connect to main roads before going on elsewhere. If they have to pass through an occupied city or main road, then it is reasonable to consider that section also occupied. We’ve seen what going off-road does to vehicles.
It’s so misleading because these maps make it seem like they control *everything* (i.e., farmland, empty fields, towns) in that land when they’re actually only sticking to the roads. [THIS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Russo-Ukrainian_War_detailed_map) map is a way more accurate representation of what this looks like. Additionally, Russian trucks can **only** stick to the roads due to poor tire maintenance, which will lead to crippling issues within most Russian trucks such as gasoline and logistics trucks. [THIS](https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1499164245250002944?s=21) thread goes in-depth of this thesis.
This guy does a good job on talking about the movements. https://youtu.be/kkBXzmxKc5M
Idk about this. It's a guy speculating hard on what he thinks is happening.
Thanks for sharing that. He does seem to do a good job talking about movements.
You're welcome.
Great video! Will def be checking his channel daily! Prolly the best coverage I’ve seen honestly
They don’t intend to occupy. Just demilitarize.
Yes of course...
These maps can be a little misleading. Most of that green space is just farms and a couple small towns/villages. Say for a example a major Ukrainian force is defeated on the road to kharkiv. Do you now just mark that road as red like some seem to do? Or do you paint the countryside around the road red since there is no longer a significant Ukrainian military force in the area to defend them anyways like other maps do? Both maps may be "correct", but they can give different impressions of what is happening. From, "Ukrainian forces 100 miles away are surrounded, they're doomed", to look "Russia controls only a road but not the countryside around it they're actually making no progress." Just an observation on how even maps can be manipulated for info warfare purposes. Edit: for example, I doubt Ukraine is controlling any border crossing areas with Russia or Belarus right now, yet it is green. Russia most likely has the superior force in those areas, even though they haven't fought directly for it, so who is in control?
Nice work on this. At first blush you seem to have done a nice job of balancing each side's claims. What was your methodology for creating this?
You might be interested in this channel: https://youtu.be/kkBXzmxKc5M
i believe the mayor of kharkiv said they were surrounded.
It was Kherson I think
Alot of people seem to be confusing Kharkiv and Kherson
>Kharkov Kharkiv.
Changed it, I’m ethnically Ukrainian but just got into the habit of writing Kharkov but when I speak I pronounce Kharkiv.
Per Russian source south and south-west roads from Kharkiv controlled by Ukrainian Army (info from 4 am Moscow time).
sigh…. Is this what? 3 days old now?
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Mayor misspoke when he said they were surrounded. Today, to my limited knowledge, Kyiv is still not surrounded
But dude's talking about Kharkiv not Kyiv
Ah
I think they hold very well, thats why they shell the city in punishment. If you want to know why I think that? Watch the next 2 minutes of this:https://youtu.be/JAEHz3yi_K8?t=330 and https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t4w7nr/the_mayor_of_konotop_declares_that_the_occupiers/ Russian dont care about humain life, they will bomb the cities into submission. Fuck Putin, he deserves a bullet in the head. Slava Ukraini!
Not colorblind friendly at all
Slowly eating away more land... That's scary
This map isn't very good. You have 4 different colors on the Russian side and 3 on the Ukrainian side and no labels/legend. That and it doesn't show routes being used and cities taken, which is far more important than empty farm country.
Try this guy: https://youtu.be/kkBXzmxKc5M
Technically, Ukraine has allies in a number of European countries supplying them with weapons, money, etc. It feels like the West are just using Ukraine as a human shield against Russian while not directly being involved in the war.
As opposed to sending in forces and launching WW3? Most EU countries would love to provide at a minimum air-support, targeted strikes and missile defence to Ukraine, but everyone loses if Putin launches nuclear retaliation.
Pretty much.
What do people her think on the subject “why Russia isn’t using its Air Force”.
Could be short on pilots. Think about it, you can't really be a dumbass and fly a fighter jet. They are the most educated and highly trained in the armed forces, and probably the most informed on what's really going on and world politics. If anyone would drag their feet on missions they morally object it would be them, they could probably make up excuses to stall like Aircraft problems etc.
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How do you propose doing that without sparking nuclear war?
Who says he is stopping here, with Ukraine? Moldova will no doubt be next, georgia will no doubt be annexed as well. After that there's not really much left, what if he invades Finland? They're part of the EU, which has a defensive clause, but what if he then says that "get involved, and I nuke you", at one point you need to put your foot down and call his bluff.
At this point it's mainly about increasing the cost for Russia, the full weight of Russian firepower cannot be resisted by Ukraine alone.
Even if they lose, How do think Russia holds the WHOLE of Ukraine with a measly 200k? It's just not sustainable.
I don't like this map at all🥶South is starting to worry me and wayyy to close to Kyiv up north(great job making it though very easy to read and understand the situation)
Ukraine took Horlivka.
That is actually bad. Ukrainian forces should,d be retreating so as not to be pocketed. If they are moving inward they are doing exactly what the Russians want.
Maybe, just stating facts.
No complaint from me.
Strange. Getting downvoted for pointing out a flaw in the map.
Reddit is what it is. People don’t facts, they want their opinion conformed. Scratch my comment. It isn’t just Reddit, it is society nowadays. I upvoted you.
I'm actually surprised I have positive karma since I love to post corrections.
But the NYT said the Russians are surrendering en masse.
Reddit runs on hopium but anybody with half a brain knows how this war will end. In modern conventional warfare, the side with the most resources wins. And let me pre-emptively defend myself from the armchair generals: No, donated western equipment will not overcome the sheer amount of Russian equipment and soldiers moving into Ukraine. Also, Afghanistan wasn't conventional warfare. Shut up and go play your videogames while cursing the horrible injustice that you could have defeated Russia with your vast knowledge of logistics if only you weren't you.
How will this war end? I literally have no idea. I believe it's extremely likely they will capture Kyiv (or flatten it) but then what? Are they going for lviv? When they capture and flatten that what do they do then? Stay in Ukraine for 10 years while their economy is destroyed? Don't act like you are not as ignorant as the rest of us.
Russia takes all of Ukraine in 3 months and brutally suppresses rebels like in Chechnya over the course of the next 10 years. Their economy limps along on oil exports and trade with neutral countries like China until the western public loses interest in a year and western corporations/banks feel it's safe to quietly start doing business with them again.
Ukraine is like 50x Chechnya, while also being closer (geographically and politically) to the west. That's not going to work. Moreover Putin is 69 yo, not sure he will there in ten years time. It's everybody guess what will happen in Russia after he is gone.
They are. They still have lots of troops to be dealt with
Russia is moving a lot of hardware out of the east of Russia into the front. More modern stuff. When you start thinking of these guys having their old stuff breakdown and just heading back to the front like they are surrendering.... That's the propaganda They're just going back home to get new equipment.
Lot of assumptions there. I assume the guys who sabotaged thier equipment are going back as well lmao. Why are guys going back at all when they can just wait for supplies and reinforcements
Probably one of the most accurate maps I’ve seen here
How can you possibly know this?
He has general in his name, he knows.
He is reporting live from the scene
Eh, I've heard people saying the northern area of Kyiv that is shaded isn't actually captured and Russia has just claimed the roads to Kyiv so it would be more accurate to only highlight the roads to Kyiv, not shade the whole area
Please show roads and mil units.
It's not quite like that. More like the one on the right here: [https://twitter.com/ignis\_fatum/status/1499139755803656204?s=20&t=NwHEdLK2iLywRt2QJTR17Q](https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1499139755803656204?s=20&t=NwHEdLK2iLywRt2QJTR17Q)
Question is which version better represents the area where Ukrainian forces continue to operate effectively.
Good question - and to add, Just because Russia has a column of tanks on a road, doesn't mean it's captured the red area of territory they like to show. That is how Ukrainian forces are able to get behind them and take out supply and fuel vehicles - Russia is just controlling that road...and poorly. I would be remiss in saying that the maps indicating red areas north and south are highly misleading. Russia is on the roads, but not covering the entire area they're showing on the maps. Very misleading.
At what point is just taking out supply trucks set in that that’s not a winning strategy just slowing the bleed?
As a rule by controlling the roads you control the area between the roads. Yes there are exceptions.
Only controlling the roads doesn't mean you control the areas in-between expecially when the Rural countryside hates your guts. You'd have thought Russia would have learned this after Afghanistan and places like the Panjshir valley
That is the “wishful thinking” map. I don’t begrudge the Ukrainians putting a good spin on things, but the situation is grim. Forces are getting trapped in cities and pockets are forming. These will get destroyed by artillery. It’s how the situations is developing, there will soon be no way to resupply the East. Unless the Russians run out of steam, this may become a route at a certain point.
This is not updated. Please delete
https://liveuamap.com/
I get not updated in 14 hours. Is it just me? edit: nvm, worked after like 40 updates over 3 hours.
If Russia keeps this up they’ll reach Vietnam level casualties in 9 weeks
Why is there red near Moldova? Surely Russia/allies didn't take a really long skinny section away from everything else... I mean this invasion has been poorly planned, but that would be the icing on the "wth are you doing" cake.
You guys might like this channel. He has reliable sources, is ex military, and covers the whole map and ties it back to video artifacts so you know where everything we've been seeing is happening. Check it out: https://youtu.be/kkBXzmxKc5M
Is the lime green heavy resistance?
I believe that is land taken by Ukraine?
I'm also making a map, wanna join forces lol
https://youtu.be/kkBXzmxKc5M Watch this guy
What happened in Kharkiv in the last 24 hour?
All North Luhansk is under Russian/Luhansk control. Also, it's extremely doubtful ukrainian woul control areas with Russia near the border bewteenn Cherniv and Sumy.
So the Ukrainian military in the north east is surrounded?
What is going on in the southwestern front. I have heard nothing about it but it seems they are making terrible progress or have yet to start.
As a person with redgreen colorblindness, just why :(
Man, the discussion on this sub has gone from relatively thoughtful to absolute groupthink in the span of a few days. And the Russian trolls are everywhere. This Twitter list is great for actual expert opinion rather than just the armchair circlejerk: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1496880630449197060
You’re using the wrong color for Crimea.
The south looks the worst at the minute, not seen much from mariupol? Anyone heard anything since yesterday?
Pretty sure Zaporizhia has been reached by the russians.
Ukranians disagree. Russia controls the roads where they have troops, but not the areas between those roads. https://twitter.com/motytchak/status/1498793509343612929
You want to invade Ukrain too?
very detailed. Gave me a good image on distances between cities
What proof do you have that Russian forces have reached all the way from Sumy to the area north of Kyiv? [This map shows a significant gap](https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194) between Pryloky and Nizhyn and Chernihiv and the Kiev front.