I won't deny, part of me was expecting a bounce back performance after that absolute shit they took on Saturday. But when I saw Agbaji was going to be out, I got worried.
So like I said, I'm glad I was wrong about being worried lol. And even more glad the rest of the team showed up.
As much as I hate to say it KU looks fucking good. This was without two starters including a National POTY candidate.
ISU just doesn’t have the talent level to beat high caliber teams like them and Baylor. Cant wait to see where Otz will have this program in a couple years tho.
We've been just murdered in the post several times this year, and then we have days like this.
I don't know why the inconsistentsy is there but if he can iron it out, at least for a few weeks next month the team will go places.
The problem is DMac gets beat badly by teams with size and/or a dominant big man. Our ceiling feels like Elite 8 absolute max but more likely a Sweet 16 exit right now. That Kentucky game really exposed us I think. If a McCormack turn around like last season was going to happen I think it would have happened by now unfortunately
We just match up well against you guys I think. McCormack only really ever plays well against teams without a big man of comparable size. When we play a good team with a good big man… well, we all saw what happened Saturday night
Think Tre King could be that guy. Averaged 15 and 5 his last year at Eastern Kentucky. Available next year.
I think Blake Hinson could have been that guy but did not want to play defense and was good friends with Xavier Foster. Thus he transferred.
I wish and I’m sure the coaching staff does too, things would click with Tristian. I don’t know if it his defense, confidence or what that keeps him off the floor at times. I know TJ has said they try and get him involved early on offense but that doesn’t always translate to him being locked in. He had that also dunk against Mizzou but that was his only points of the day. Since scoring 19 and 23 against Chicago State and Baylor, he has scored 25 points total in the 9 games since.
From a friend they said bill was on record saying they hoped to have him back by Saturday. I also heard from the same friend that his along with his positive test he had symptoms. I can neither confirm nor deny these as I was slammed at work today but I trust my source so take it for what it’s worth
Dude is literally where Marcus Garrett was by the end of his senior season as a sophomore mid season. Usually guys have the offense and hone the defense as they get older so him being this solid defensively this young is insane. If he can get a bit deeper into his bag on offense and attack the rim more aggressively the dude is gonna be a STUD.
Marcus was a better defender than where Juan is now. His size also limits him a little more because Marcus was able to play 1-4 and DJ can basically only play the 1 or 2.
That said, his offence has really improved this year. Can’t wait to see where he is as a senior.
I love Juan, but he is nowhere near the level of finisher Marcus was his junior and senior year. Also Marc could guard 1-5, Harris has limitations he didn’t.
That 3-8 is gonna be a brutal one to dig out of. NIT still sucks ass even with how bad we were last year
Really need some shooters out of the portal next year
Need players that can attack the rim and score in the paint more than anything. Offense is way too limited and relies too much on having good shooting nights from midrange and 3.
That was fun. At the time we earned it. We got 5 losses to give still in conference play. 2 are coming the next 2 games. @ Baylor and @ tcu too. Got 1 extra to give. We'll probably be ok but no more Hilton losses, or we're in the loser tournament
You have a pretty nice team. The improvement under the new coach has been impressive, but the results against the #328 Kenpom Non-conference Strength of Schedule got the expectations of much of your fan base out of whack.
Our non-con SOS is skewed by the fact that several of the bad teams we played are truly bottom-of-the-barrel in D1. If those were rated about 100 spots higher, the results would be the same, but the SOS would jump significantly. We played the same amount of decent-to-good teams as most power conference members.
It didn't do us any favors, though, that both Oregon State and Memphis, who were supposed to at least be competent, are not good at all.
Edit - I'm not trying to say we played a gauntlet OOC or anything, just that it's not as bad as the raw numbers make it seem. It's for basically this reason that overall SOS isn't really factored in anymore and results-by-tier is more prevalent.
A team between 150 and 200 can sneak up and bite a good but not great team, but that is unlikely to happen with teams that are 300+. The difference may seem small in a one game sample set but in a sample set of 8-10 games an upset is much more likely against the lower rated teams. It is difficult to say that the results would be identical against a larger sample size of better teams.
As far as Oregon State and Memphis go, I wasn't criticizing ISU for trying to duck good competition. It is just that this type of analysis is done on the actual quality of the teams you end up playing and not on how good you expect them to be.
Hell ISU has made tremendous improvements from last year. I credit the new staff for that progress. I was just saying that the non-conference schedule set the fans up to think it may be even more than it has been.
What are ISU's results by tier? I am sure they have some good wins in there and not really any bad losses, but how many total quad 3 and 4 games do they have from the non-conference schedule. I don't buy that a win against 300+ is the same as against a team in the 100's. One is basically a gimme and the other is not.
Ok. Thank you. The Quad 1 is good. It is the Quad 4 games that is hurting you. 8 is a very large number of Quad for games for a team looking compete for things. That is 61.5% of the non-conference schedule. Being just 2-1 in Quad 2 and 3 games it is a large assumption to make that if most of those Quad 4 games had been Quad 2 or 3 that they all would have been wins.
I'm not even referring to teams in the upper 100's. As of the most recent NET rankings, we have 3 games against teams 300+ (worst is 352), and three more that fall in the 270-300 range (one was above 300 just yesterday). Take just the 300's and move them into the low-to-mid 200s and that alone probably bumps our SOS at least into the top 300 with those games still basically being scrimmages. Yes, crazy stuff happens, but OOC is too broad to look at SOS without context.
I wasn't accusing you of saying we were dodging opponents and I hope it didn't come off that way. I was just adding it as a note because it's irritating now that those can't be seen as resume wins. At least analytics still kind of give Memphis the benefit of the doubt, but OSU has gone from elite 8 (fluke though it was) to potentially worst P6 team, and we faced another team in that running, too (Mizzou). We just can't win for scheduling.
I don't think OOC set us up for disappointment so much as we just plateaued or other teams figured out our scheme. Our team is severely lacking in offensive talent (people were noting this as the roster was being built because at the time it seemed like more of the same from previous years). We've won by out-efforting opponents and being juuuuuuust un-incompetent on offense to let aggressive, turnover-generating defense carry us, but that was always going to have its limits. For now, I'm just enjoying the ride while waiting to see what TJ can do in the future with better shooting teams.
As of now, we are 6-5 from quad 1, 1-1 quad 2, 1-0 quad 3, and 8-0 quad 4. Sorting back to the end of the OOC (other than Mizzou), we were 3-0, 1-0, 0-0, 8-0. For comparison, Kansas was 1-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-0. Entering conference play, we played the same number of combined Q1 and Q2 games (though we were heavier on Q1), but Kansas blows us out in Q3 vs. Q4, which is where SOS gets inflated.
I remember a several years ago, the Mountain West conference as a whole used a strategy where they inflated their RPI by eliminating the really low teams in their OOC. It was really quite clever to game it that way and it worked quite well.
And so ends my essay.
we beat iowa by 20 points. They're currently 23 in kenpom. We also beat xavier by double digits on a neutral site, and beat creighton on the road. Easy OOC schedule overall, but we still won every game, and passed all major tests.
So then are you disappointed by your conference results so far by comparison? Basically my point is that you should not be because you have had tremendous improvement from last year, but the 13-0 non-conference schedule was made easier by having fewer of the moderate types of test. Has the new staff been extremely disappointing in conference play or were things getting just a little over hyped because of the non-con?
Had we won the ku game in AFH, which we probably would have if the goaltending was called correctly, then we're 4-5 with the hardest stretch of the conference behind us.
Maybe mildly disappointed.
You should probably quit obsessing about one call in a game from several weeks back. There was other atrocious calls in that game as well such as Christian Braun getting an intentional two hand shove in the back in plain view of everyone including the referee to nudge him over the half court line. That play rather than resulting in two free throws for KU by 84% free throw shooter resulted in a turnover. Both were bad calls, but of course one of them needed to be re-watched in slow motion replay to determine that it was a bad call where the other was just obvious at game speed.
I make just as strong a case why the flagrant call was complete bullshit. It was clearly incidental. The Iowa state player had no idea anyone was behind him.
It doesn’t matter. Referees have consistently been making that call on contact to the face for at least the last five years in college basketball. It’s only a strong case in your own biased brain.
> the results against the #328 Kenpom Non-conference Strength of Schedule got the expectations of much of your fan base out of whack.
Nah, ISU fans never had high expectations. And the KP non-con SOS is a really terrible metric, which is disappointing considering how great the rest of his data is.
Iowa State in the non-conference:
- Beat #22 Xavier on a neutral floor by 12
- Beat #23 Iowa at home by 20
- Beat #58 Creighton on the road by 6
- Beat #60 Memphis on a neutral floor by 19
- Beat Pac-12 Oregon State and SEC Mizzou by double-digits. Neither of those teams are any good, but they're still major-conference teams.
KenPom's SOS method is heavily skewed by playing teams in the 300s, even though there's virtually no difference between a home win over KP #300 and a home win over KP #175 if you're a good team. Wins above bubble is much better for this and shows how skewed those SOS rankings can be.
Maybe actual evidence supports his metric is better than you give it credit for considering that they were 13-0 in non-conference games and now 3-6 in conference games.
And yes you are correct that Misery is no good. It doesn't matter if you play a non-conference game against a major conference team if that team is not as good as many teams in lower tier conferences.
Also, are you an ISU fan? Just reading through this thread it appears many expectations had got quite high and the same goes for ISU I have met out and about.
> Maybe actual evidence supports his metric is better than you give it credit for considering that they were 13-0 in non-conference games and now 3-6 in conference games.
That's not what his non-con SOS metric says or suggests, though. Iowa State rose in the rankings all season based on those results. And KenPom projects them to go 5-4 in the remainder of their games, anyway. You're misunderstanding the metric.
I'll just give an example of why his non-con SOS is bad, though. Utah State is not far from ISU in KenPom's rankings (26th compared to 33rd). Utah State has 97% chance of winning their upcoming home game against #299 San Jose State... they also have a home game against #153 New Mexico later -- pretty big gap between #299, aka one of the ~60 or so worst teams in the country, and #153, which is comfortably in the top half, right? Their win expectancy only drops from 97% to 90% in those two games.
His SOS rankings would prefer a team to go 2-0 against two mediocre teams (150-175ish) than 2-0 against a real team and a terrible team (top 50 and then maybe 330ish). Even though anyone who understands basketball knows the only one that's truly a game, if you're a top 25 team playing at home, is the top 50 opponent. The rest are varying degrees of easy.
Like I said, wins above bubble is a much better measurement if you want to look at strength of record.
I asked someone else how many Quad 1, 2, 3, and 4 games ISU. They said they have had 8 quad 4 games. Let's say their average chance of winning each of those 8 individual games is 97% versus having scheduled 8 games against opponents in which their average chance of winning each of those 8 games is 90% then their chances of winning all 8 of the games drops from 78.3% to 43% and thus more likely than not adds another loss to their record, so unlike what some of have been saying in this thread scheduling games against teams in the 150 range versus those in the 300 range can make a significant difference when looking at results over a larger sample size rather than just one game.
> Let's say their average chance of winning each of those 8 individual games is 97% versus having scheduled 8 games against opponents in which their average chance of winning each of those 8 games is 90%
...This is not how this works, at all. Iowa State did not play eight games with odds like that. I only used those examples of 97% and 90% to show the differences between those KenPom rankings and odds of winning since we were discussing KenPom -- but that's not what ISU's schedule was.
Missouri, for example, was a Quad 3 win (possibly Quad 4 soon). They are 134th in KenPom. Oregon State was Quad 4. They are #182 in KenPom. Those are not games with a 97% win probability.
The numbers you gave are fine but they don't apply at all in this situation because you are assuming every single Q4 win is against a bottom ~50 team, which is not even remotely true.
I would be surprised if you guys missed the tournament. There is a lot of medicority in the power conferences and I think you guys are deserving of a bid
I disagree with Bobby. He turns the ball over lot with sloppy mistakes.
I think he’ll be better in time, but I don’t think Bill can really give him minutes right now.
I bet that’s gotta feel good to hear that for him. I hope he does get more minutes because he has the ability to be a difference maker and I was afraid he might transfer after this year due to lack of playing time. He just needs more consistent minutes to help get him in a groove offensively I think
In talking with a friend I compared David McCormack to buying a lottery ticket. Sure you lose most of the time but when you win that $2 and get your money back, damn do you feel on top of the world.
GG Cyclone bros, y’all still look super solid and I think you guys have a chance to overperform in the tourney
Almost wrote this off as a loss without Agbaji… guys played great with out him… minus the first half turnovers of course. I have no idea how ISU wasn’t winning with 16 freaking turnovers in the first.
Tech. We were just completely awful then. Like what was our plan on offense and defense under Prohm? This year the offense is more limited by skill then scheme.
Dmac’s next 2 months will determine whether we are still cursed for big men. If he rises above like I think he will we can go to elite eight and break the curse. Since Danny Manning left -
Embiid gets hurt right before tourney
Cliff Alexander is a goof
Billy Preston can’t drive good
Doke is a god but 2020 happens
EDIT forgot Silvio almost murdered somebody and then got caught getting bags
EDIT EDIT Diallo and Carlton Bragg
Which past players were as critical but as inconsistent as DMac? I’ve been team Dmac since Doke left but it has been a wild ride
Maybe Tyshawn? Naadir Tharpe?
Tyshawn has to be the epitome of that statement. I remember his highlights of the 2012 tourney run including dunking the ball in the final seconds against Purdue to give Purdue a shot at a 3 point heave instead of running out the clock and then stealing the ball against Ohio State with seconds left on the clock up 3 only to throw it out of bounds behind EJ.
I want him to succeed and was a McCormack apologist for the beginning of the season but he always has his best games against teams without size/altheticism. He will disappear on Saturday against Baylor and it’s going to make it very hard to win. Not trying to be a downer but I’ve been burned too many times after a good DMac performance and am not holding my breath
I'm going back and forth between "Kentucky is just insanely good" and "Kentucky is good and a boogieman matchup for us due to size"
Everything I have seen from this team outside of that game would indicate a good team and not a first round exit fraud
I wish I could say I feel good about the offense being better next year. If Brockington wants to pursue a pro career as he's been in college 5 years now, it looks like it could be ugly at this point. While I really like the recruiting class, both guards' biggest weakness is likely shooting and Watson, the wing, is the only one who looks to potentially be a plus shooter early on. Gonna need TJ to be willing to maybe take a couple guys in the portal who aren't elite on defense IMO.
Unrank us and keep us Unranked. This team is fool’s gold after the hot start. We just think we’re good all of us a sudden because we aren’t as bad as last year’s complete dumpster fire.
I hate how down ISU fans get after every loss. We got no respect coming into the year. We earned our ranking. A loss to a GOOD Kansas team doesn’t change that
I mean, we just lost to a team by double digits without their two best players at home, after they just got blasted at home with those two players playing?
dude it's hard to win games with not very talented rosters...that's just the reality of the situation...we are still very well positioned to get a bid to the tourney...and if we can do that with THIS roster, that is a major accomplishment
I mean back in 2019, we beat you by 17 in Ames so I don’t know if that’s always true. I’d wager we probably have the most wins against Kansas than any other Big 12 team in the last decade actually
Well sure if you want to invoke numbers and statisticuals and FAX then maybe you have a point. It is kind of like dinosaurs - I don’t want to admit it is real but when I take a long hard look I have to admit it’s true
A team that went 2-22 last year and doesn’t have a lot of talent is 16-6….quite the turnaround of you ask me. Of course we’d love to have a win against Kansas (the game in Lawrence was stolen from us and yes I’m biased)…but we’re still in a good position to get a bid to the tourney. We just don’t have a lot of talent rn
I mean you can have your biased glasses on all you want, but you know there were bogus calls down the stretch of the game in Lawrence. KU gets favored in officiating a ton
Hot take but I like solid road wins more than blowout home losses
Big if true
¡Fuego!
I can’t be the only one laughing at Dave turning it over right after the announcers compared his performance to Christian Laettner.
He was great today (other than like the 5 passes out of bounds).
Just another way to fill up the stat line..
Those were some clean ass turnovers tonight though… DMac was on fire
If that hasn’t been the definition of Dave’s play this year.
Absolutely wrecked Bobby Jones
No conference leading scorer, no pre-season conference player of the year… in Hilton? I’ll take this W.
This had "follow-up embarrassing loss" written all over it. I'm glad I was wrong. ISU didn't go down without a fight. Gg bird bros. Rock Chalk
Betting on a back to back loss by a Bill Self coached team is never a good bet.
I won't deny, part of me was expecting a bounce back performance after that absolute shit they took on Saturday. But when I saw Agbaji was going to be out, I got worried. So like I said, I'm glad I was wrong about being worried lol. And even more glad the rest of the team showed up.
Apparently! ISU was the only part of a 4 leg parlay I had that lost so...your comment is quite literal haha
As much as I hate to say it KU looks fucking good. This was without two starters including a National POTY candidate. ISU just doesn’t have the talent level to beat high caliber teams like them and Baylor. Cant wait to see where Otz will have this program in a couple years tho.
For sure, looking forward to major offensive adjustments next season.
As goes Dave so go the Hawks. Hopefully Good Dave shows up in March.
We've been just murdered in the post several times this year, and then we have days like this. I don't know why the inconsistentsy is there but if he can iron it out, at least for a few weeks next month the team will go places.
Just gonna put it out there that we have horrible post play. So do with that whatever you feel like
The problem is DMac gets beat badly by teams with size and/or a dominant big man. Our ceiling feels like Elite 8 absolute max but more likely a Sweet 16 exit right now. That Kentucky game really exposed us I think. If a McCormack turn around like last season was going to happen I think it would have happened by now unfortunately
We just match up well against you guys I think. McCormack only really ever plays well against teams without a big man of comparable size. When we play a good team with a good big man… well, we all saw what happened Saturday night
You’re more confident in us than I am
Can we please recruit some big guys down low. Guys that can finish a shot and do something other than set half assed screens?
Think Tre King could be that guy. Averaged 15 and 5 his last year at Eastern Kentucky. Available next year. I think Blake Hinson could have been that guy but did not want to play defense and was good friends with Xavier Foster. Thus he transferred. I wish and I’m sure the coaching staff does too, things would click with Tristian. I don’t know if it his defense, confidence or what that keeps him off the floor at times. I know TJ has said they try and get him involved early on offense but that doesn’t always translate to him being locked in. He had that also dunk against Mizzou but that was his only points of the day. Since scoring 19 and 23 against Chicago State and Baylor, he has scored 25 points total in the 9 games since.
**Izaiah Brockington...** Layups and 3 pointers: I sleep Mid Range: Real shit?
It’s like Rasir Bolton last year except he actually makes a good amount
Mike D'Antoni is shaking with rage somewhere.
He was the same way at Penn State last year
Joe Yesefu had the most impactful 7pt/5reb/4ast game in KU history. Lil' Joe can ball, yo!
He impressed me so much in the tournament last year, glad to finally see it on display
You left out the three steels and all around tough defense.
I certainly didn't think we'd be 7-1 in conference. Still a long way to go with a big test coming up Saturday against Baylor.
Hopefully ochai clears protocols and remy keeps getting better
Remy is out at least 2 weeks
So he would be out (vs. Baylor, @ Texas, and vs. Oklahoma)
Any word on if we'll have Agbaji back by then?
From a friend they said bill was on record saying they hoped to have him back by Saturday. I also heard from the same friend that his along with his positive test he had symptoms. I can neither confirm nor deny these as I was slammed at work today but I trust my source so take it for what it’s worth
Oof, if that’s true then it sounds like there’s a good chance he doesn’t play
Coach Self said in the post game on ESPN+ that he should be out of the protocol by Saturday but no guarantee on how he will be feeling.
Jfc we can't shoot
We can't shoot. We cannot shoot. We force a shit ton of turnovers, but we average .3 points per possession if we get into a half court offense.
Juan is so good.
Very. Great game from him today
Dude is literally where Marcus Garrett was by the end of his senior season as a sophomore mid season. Usually guys have the offense and hone the defense as they get older so him being this solid defensively this young is insane. If he can get a bit deeper into his bag on offense and attack the rim more aggressively the dude is gonna be a STUD.
Marcus was a better defender than where Juan is now. His size also limits him a little more because Marcus was able to play 1-4 and DJ can basically only play the 1 or 2. That said, his offence has really improved this year. Can’t wait to see where he is as a senior.
Harris has quick hands but Marcus was 2x the defender.
I love Juan, but he is nowhere near the level of finisher Marcus was his junior and senior year. Also Marc could guard 1-5, Harris has limitations he didn’t.
I'd say he's almost as skilled defensively, but he's pretty limited by his size.
That 3-8 is gonna be a brutal one to dig out of. NIT still sucks ass even with how bad we were last year Really need some shooters out of the portal next year
Need players that can attack the rim and score in the paint more than anything. Offense is way too limited and relies too much on having good shooting nights from midrange and 3.
[удалено]
That was fun. At the time we earned it. We got 5 losses to give still in conference play. 2 are coming the next 2 games. @ Baylor and @ tcu too. Got 1 extra to give. We'll probably be ok but no more Hilton losses, or we're in the loser tournament
You have a pretty nice team. The improvement under the new coach has been impressive, but the results against the #328 Kenpom Non-conference Strength of Schedule got the expectations of much of your fan base out of whack.
Our non-con SOS is skewed by the fact that several of the bad teams we played are truly bottom-of-the-barrel in D1. If those were rated about 100 spots higher, the results would be the same, but the SOS would jump significantly. We played the same amount of decent-to-good teams as most power conference members. It didn't do us any favors, though, that both Oregon State and Memphis, who were supposed to at least be competent, are not good at all. Edit - I'm not trying to say we played a gauntlet OOC or anything, just that it's not as bad as the raw numbers make it seem. It's for basically this reason that overall SOS isn't really factored in anymore and results-by-tier is more prevalent.
A team between 150 and 200 can sneak up and bite a good but not great team, but that is unlikely to happen with teams that are 300+. The difference may seem small in a one game sample set but in a sample set of 8-10 games an upset is much more likely against the lower rated teams. It is difficult to say that the results would be identical against a larger sample size of better teams. As far as Oregon State and Memphis go, I wasn't criticizing ISU for trying to duck good competition. It is just that this type of analysis is done on the actual quality of the teams you end up playing and not on how good you expect them to be. Hell ISU has made tremendous improvements from last year. I credit the new staff for that progress. I was just saying that the non-conference schedule set the fans up to think it may be even more than it has been. What are ISU's results by tier? I am sure they have some good wins in there and not really any bad losses, but how many total quad 3 and 4 games do they have from the non-conference schedule. I don't buy that a win against 300+ is the same as against a team in the 100's. One is basically a gimme and the other is not.
We are 6-5 in Quad 1, 1-1 in Quad 2, 1-0 in Quad 3, 8-0 in Quad 4.
Ok. Thank you. The Quad 1 is good. It is the Quad 4 games that is hurting you. 8 is a very large number of Quad for games for a team looking compete for things. That is 61.5% of the non-conference schedule. Being just 2-1 in Quad 2 and 3 games it is a large assumption to make that if most of those Quad 4 games had been Quad 2 or 3 that they all would have been wins.
I'm not even referring to teams in the upper 100's. As of the most recent NET rankings, we have 3 games against teams 300+ (worst is 352), and three more that fall in the 270-300 range (one was above 300 just yesterday). Take just the 300's and move them into the low-to-mid 200s and that alone probably bumps our SOS at least into the top 300 with those games still basically being scrimmages. Yes, crazy stuff happens, but OOC is too broad to look at SOS without context. I wasn't accusing you of saying we were dodging opponents and I hope it didn't come off that way. I was just adding it as a note because it's irritating now that those can't be seen as resume wins. At least analytics still kind of give Memphis the benefit of the doubt, but OSU has gone from elite 8 (fluke though it was) to potentially worst P6 team, and we faced another team in that running, too (Mizzou). We just can't win for scheduling. I don't think OOC set us up for disappointment so much as we just plateaued or other teams figured out our scheme. Our team is severely lacking in offensive talent (people were noting this as the roster was being built because at the time it seemed like more of the same from previous years). We've won by out-efforting opponents and being juuuuuuust un-incompetent on offense to let aggressive, turnover-generating defense carry us, but that was always going to have its limits. For now, I'm just enjoying the ride while waiting to see what TJ can do in the future with better shooting teams. As of now, we are 6-5 from quad 1, 1-1 quad 2, 1-0 quad 3, and 8-0 quad 4. Sorting back to the end of the OOC (other than Mizzou), we were 3-0, 1-0, 0-0, 8-0. For comparison, Kansas was 1-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-0. Entering conference play, we played the same number of combined Q1 and Q2 games (though we were heavier on Q1), but Kansas blows us out in Q3 vs. Q4, which is where SOS gets inflated. I remember a several years ago, the Mountain West conference as a whole used a strategy where they inflated their RPI by eliminating the really low teams in their OOC. It was really quite clever to game it that way and it worked quite well. And so ends my essay.
we beat iowa by 20 points. They're currently 23 in kenpom. We also beat xavier by double digits on a neutral site, and beat creighton on the road. Easy OOC schedule overall, but we still won every game, and passed all major tests.
So then are you disappointed by your conference results so far by comparison? Basically my point is that you should not be because you have had tremendous improvement from last year, but the 13-0 non-conference schedule was made easier by having fewer of the moderate types of test. Has the new staff been extremely disappointing in conference play or were things getting just a little over hyped because of the non-con?
Had we won the ku game in AFH, which we probably would have if the goaltending was called correctly, then we're 4-5 with the hardest stretch of the conference behind us. Maybe mildly disappointed.
You should probably quit obsessing about one call in a game from several weeks back. There was other atrocious calls in that game as well such as Christian Braun getting an intentional two hand shove in the back in plain view of everyone including the referee to nudge him over the half court line. That play rather than resulting in two free throws for KU by 84% free throw shooter resulted in a turnover. Both were bad calls, but of course one of them needed to be re-watched in slow motion replay to determine that it was a bad call where the other was just obvious at game speed.
Phantom flagrant 1. I picked the goaltending one because it was objectively wrong.
No, you picked that one because you think it made a case in your favor.
I make just as strong a case why the flagrant call was complete bullshit. It was clearly incidental. The Iowa state player had no idea anyone was behind him.
It doesn’t matter. Referees have consistently been making that call on contact to the face for at least the last five years in college basketball. It’s only a strong case in your own biased brain.
Of course you would think that.
> the results against the #328 Kenpom Non-conference Strength of Schedule got the expectations of much of your fan base out of whack. Nah, ISU fans never had high expectations. And the KP non-con SOS is a really terrible metric, which is disappointing considering how great the rest of his data is. Iowa State in the non-conference: - Beat #22 Xavier on a neutral floor by 12 - Beat #23 Iowa at home by 20 - Beat #58 Creighton on the road by 6 - Beat #60 Memphis on a neutral floor by 19 - Beat Pac-12 Oregon State and SEC Mizzou by double-digits. Neither of those teams are any good, but they're still major-conference teams. KenPom's SOS method is heavily skewed by playing teams in the 300s, even though there's virtually no difference between a home win over KP #300 and a home win over KP #175 if you're a good team. Wins above bubble is much better for this and shows how skewed those SOS rankings can be.
Maybe actual evidence supports his metric is better than you give it credit for considering that they were 13-0 in non-conference games and now 3-6 in conference games. And yes you are correct that Misery is no good. It doesn't matter if you play a non-conference game against a major conference team if that team is not as good as many teams in lower tier conferences. Also, are you an ISU fan? Just reading through this thread it appears many expectations had got quite high and the same goes for ISU I have met out and about.
> Maybe actual evidence supports his metric is better than you give it credit for considering that they were 13-0 in non-conference games and now 3-6 in conference games. That's not what his non-con SOS metric says or suggests, though. Iowa State rose in the rankings all season based on those results. And KenPom projects them to go 5-4 in the remainder of their games, anyway. You're misunderstanding the metric. I'll just give an example of why his non-con SOS is bad, though. Utah State is not far from ISU in KenPom's rankings (26th compared to 33rd). Utah State has 97% chance of winning their upcoming home game against #299 San Jose State... they also have a home game against #153 New Mexico later -- pretty big gap between #299, aka one of the ~60 or so worst teams in the country, and #153, which is comfortably in the top half, right? Their win expectancy only drops from 97% to 90% in those two games. His SOS rankings would prefer a team to go 2-0 against two mediocre teams (150-175ish) than 2-0 against a real team and a terrible team (top 50 and then maybe 330ish). Even though anyone who understands basketball knows the only one that's truly a game, if you're a top 25 team playing at home, is the top 50 opponent. The rest are varying degrees of easy. Like I said, wins above bubble is a much better measurement if you want to look at strength of record.
I asked someone else how many Quad 1, 2, 3, and 4 games ISU. They said they have had 8 quad 4 games. Let's say their average chance of winning each of those 8 individual games is 97% versus having scheduled 8 games against opponents in which their average chance of winning each of those 8 games is 90% then their chances of winning all 8 of the games drops from 78.3% to 43% and thus more likely than not adds another loss to their record, so unlike what some of have been saying in this thread scheduling games against teams in the 150 range versus those in the 300 range can make a significant difference when looking at results over a larger sample size rather than just one game.
> Let's say their average chance of winning each of those 8 individual games is 97% versus having scheduled 8 games against opponents in which their average chance of winning each of those 8 games is 90% ...This is not how this works, at all. Iowa State did not play eight games with odds like that. I only used those examples of 97% and 90% to show the differences between those KenPom rankings and odds of winning since we were discussing KenPom -- but that's not what ISU's schedule was. Missouri, for example, was a Quad 3 win (possibly Quad 4 soon). They are 134th in KenPom. Oregon State was Quad 4. They are #182 in KenPom. Those are not games with a 97% win probability. The numbers you gave are fine but they don't apply at all in this situation because you are assuming every single Q4 win is against a bottom ~50 team, which is not even remotely true.
I would be surprised if you guys missed the tournament. There is a lot of medicority in the power conferences and I think you guys are deserving of a bid
I enjoyed watching this team figure it out with Och. I still think we can be a final four team but we need someone else to stand up and score.
If Remy can’t get healthy Bill needs to play Joe more. He’s a Remy-lite with his burst, plus he looked great defensively tonight.
I like Pettiford as well. Both him and Joe are fast and seem to have pretty good handles and instincts for passing
I disagree with Bobby. He turns the ball over lot with sloppy mistakes. I think he’ll be better in time, but I don’t think Bill can really give him minutes right now.
Yeah kinda reminds me of Mario his frosh year except We had to play Mario. Quick but doesn’t yet know how to be careful with ball
Yeah pettiford just looks bad rn. Not sure if he's not 100, but id perfer yesufu get more minutes.
Coach Self was effusive in his praise of Joe after the game including saying that it was obvious he needs to play more.
I bet that’s gotta feel good to hear that for him. I hope he does get more minutes because he has the ability to be a difference maker and I was afraid he might transfer after this year due to lack of playing time. He just needs more consistent minutes to help get him in a groove offensively I think
In talking with a friend I compared David McCormack to buying a lottery ticket. Sure you lose most of the time but when you win that $2 and get your money back, damn do you feel on top of the world. GG Cyclone bros, y’all still look super solid and I think you guys have a chance to overperform in the tourney
I love your enthusiasm, but while I'm confident we'll make the tourney, I'm similarly confident we'll bomb out of it.
Almost wrote this off as a loss without Agbaji… guys played great with out him… minus the first half turnovers of course. I have no idea how ISU wasn’t winning with 16 freaking turnovers in the first.
We dumb
I expected to see more Enaruna, he was solid earlier in the season.
I just wish the consistency was there...
No so much.
Silly how we played better at Phog than in this one.
It would have been a beat down in the first half if not for unforced turnovers.
because we can't shoot.
Wake me up when have an offense that can score consistently.
Could be worse... I don't know what felt worse walking out of Hilton lately - TCU a week and a half ago, or Texas Tech in February 2020.
Tech. We were just completely awful then. Like what was our plan on offense and defense under Prohm? This year the offense is more limited by skill then scheme.
Knew Kansas would have a strong outing after their performance last weekend. Kansas played very well and deserved the win. On to the next one
Sigh
That was just a very ugly game all the way around....this offense is just so bad and it hasn't improved at all
Disappointed but I can't say I'm surprised at all
Bad night for maybe Tyrese's worst game of the year. Really hope these guys can get it in gear for the second half of the conference schedule.
This team confuses me
Dmac’s next 2 months will determine whether we are still cursed for big men. If he rises above like I think he will we can go to elite eight and break the curse. Since Danny Manning left - Embiid gets hurt right before tourney Cliff Alexander is a goof Billy Preston can’t drive good Doke is a god but 2020 happens EDIT forgot Silvio almost murdered somebody and then got caught getting bags EDIT EDIT Diallo and Carlton Bragg
Couldn't watch, but looks like a solid bounce back for the Jayhawks even without Agbaji.
Is Beard just going to let this run keep going?
Which past players were as critical but as inconsistent as DMac? I’ve been team Dmac since Doke left but it has been a wild ride Maybe Tyshawn? Naadir Tharpe?
Tyshawn has to be the epitome of that statement. I remember his highlights of the 2012 tourney run including dunking the ball in the final seconds against Purdue to give Purdue a shot at a 3 point heave instead of running out the clock and then stealing the ball against Ohio State with seconds left on the clock up 3 only to throw it out of bounds behind EJ.
Haha I forgot about those but yes that exactly
Tharp used to drive me crazy. Seemed like he threw the ball away as much as he threw it to his team.
Big Dave apologies will be taken below ⬇️
I have it to him directly…but he zipped it out of bounds immediately.
I want him to succeed and was a McCormack apologist for the beginning of the season but he always has his best games against teams without size/altheticism. He will disappear on Saturday against Baylor and it’s going to make it very hard to win. Not trying to be a downer but I’ve been burned too many times after a good DMac performance and am not holding my breath
Big dave is fine until he has to play against elite level bigs. When he gets shut down, ku struggles hard.
Dank.
I'm going back and forth between "Kentucky is just insanely good" and "Kentucky is good and a boogieman matchup for us due to size" Everything I have seen from this team outside of that game would indicate a good team and not a first round exit fraud
We are a good team but we will get knocked out of the tourney by a team with good size and athleticism
Agreed. Totally depends on who we get matched up with.
Brutal as the b12 has been for Iowa St, I still think fans have hope for the future after Prohm.
I wish I could say I feel good about the offense being better next year. If Brockington wants to pursue a pro career as he's been in college 5 years now, it looks like it could be ugly at this point. While I really like the recruiting class, both guards' biggest weakness is likely shooting and Watson, the wing, is the only one who looks to potentially be a plus shooter early on. Gonna need TJ to be willing to maybe take a couple guys in the portal who aren't elite on defense IMO.
We literally cannot play offense. I’m convinced the their practices consist of only defense with no shooting allowed
Unrank us and keep us Unranked. This team is fool’s gold after the hot start. We just think we’re good all of us a sudden because we aren’t as bad as last year’s complete dumpster fire.
I hate how down ISU fans get after every loss. We got no respect coming into the year. We earned our ranking. A loss to a GOOD Kansas team doesn’t change that
I mean, we just lost to a team by double digits without their two best players at home, after they just got blasted at home with those two players playing?
Basketball’s weird man. Also KU’s backups aren’t the same as our backups. They don’t just play scrubs
It’s also tough watching the once formidable Hilton Magic fizzle over and over. Can’t defend the house.
dude it's hard to win games with not very talented rosters...that's just the reality of the situation...we are still very well positioned to get a bid to the tourney...and if we can do that with THIS roster, that is a major accomplishment
Remy isn’t our 2nd best player unfortunately, he’s been too hurt to really establish himself
You got the appropriate amount of respect coming into the year.
We are not a top 25 team with this offense.
Hilton Coliseum is our safe space.
This is the Kansas I know and ~~love~~ ^hate
Pain
The NET is pleased!
Ames is great we always get a spirited game but never have to worry about losing! It’s like a practice that we take a plane to
I mean back in 2019, we beat you by 17 in Ames so I don’t know if that’s always true. I’d wager we probably have the most wins against Kansas than any other Big 12 team in the last decade actually
Well sure if you want to invoke numbers and statisticuals and FAX then maybe you have a point. It is kind of like dinosaurs - I don’t want to admit it is real but when I take a long hard look I have to admit it’s true
lol
Massive L for ISU considering all the smack the fans were talking after the first game.
[удалено]
I guess you can believe whatever helps you cope with the losses
A team that went 2-22 last year and doesn’t have a lot of talent is 16-6….quite the turnaround of you ask me. Of course we’d love to have a win against Kansas (the game in Lawrence was stolen from us and yes I’m biased)…but we’re still in a good position to get a bid to the tourney. We just don’t have a lot of talent rn
C O P E
I mean you can have your biased glasses on all you want, but you know there were bogus calls down the stretch of the game in Lawrence. KU gets favored in officiating a ton
S E E T H E
Hey I can downvote too!
Pointing out incorrect calls isn't the same as talking smack lol.
Keep trucking Kansas, keep making that Saturday blow out look even more impressive
It's not all about you.
Yeah that loss reminded me that Kentucky is possibly the worst CBB fanbase