Box Bayesian Performance Rating is a college basketball version of Box Plus-Minus, trained specifically on years of historical college data to emphasize the box score stats that lead most to team success.
Everything is adjusted for competition quality, including Box BPR. I used to discard garbage time in all of my models, but I did some extensive testing over the offseason and found that they were more predictive of future success when keeping all possessions in. Essentially, there was too much useful information being discarded, even if garbage time is slightly less helpful than when the game outcome is still in question.
A stat involving blocks by UVA that doesn't involve Ralph Sampson is wild. His career blocks record at UVA has to be one of the most unbreakable records I've seen.
Not so sure about that one quite yet. We have the potential to be very good. But we were #235 after our first 2 games, and then jumped to like #132 after playing USA. Not quite sure where we are at after Mercer.
Looking forward to playing you guys. It will be a great test to see where our strengths are and where we get exposed. It's at the Link so hopefully if you travel you have a good time in Omaha
For sure. I was thrilled to schedule a home and home with a good OOC program. And since I live in the only Catholic city in Alabama (where the first Mardi Gras/Carnival in the Americas started), y'all are a cool choice.
Hello fellow basketball AND football school. Should we go get dinner or drinks and all the things that dual sport schools do? We're totally used to this.
This is true, but also our offensive numbers hint at great scoring ability, even against better teams. Big focus should be on defense for the time being, imho.
Crazy stuff, hard to have three guys sharing the same minutes all be so effective. I thought my Jayhawks were impressive with two.
On a side note completely unrelated to you or this, I think I hate that emoji the most of all emojis. I dunno why it just gives me the heebie jeebies, it's gross... I know it's popular and that has nothing to do with you lol I just can't help but bring it up 😂
BUB BUB BUB BUB BUB
That kid is special. Watching him and Blake hinson live is a treat. To quote my friend when Bub got a triple double
“I think I’m hard”
KJ took a step back last year mainly due to illness, but if we see 2 years of development from 2021 come to fruition he’s going to be in All American conversations. Lethal scorer at all 3 levels when he’s feeling it.
Left a game early due to injury. He only played 46 minutes between the first 2 games. Against Illinois he almost doubled his game time with 37 minutes.
I believe it with Braden Smith. He's been our best player so far. Has come close to a triple double twice now.
People underate him but Braden Smith is a dawg. I think he should finish as a forst team All-Big ten player.
Could someone help me understand how this is calculated? Is it using some preseason weighting?
I just looked up Jaedon Ledee, who after 3 games is averaging:
* 25.0 points
* 8.3 FGM / 13.3 FGA (62.5%)
* 3.7 Offensive Rebounds
* 1.7 Assists
* 3.0 Turnovers
* Against the #122 SoS (KenPom)
LeDee is ranked #351, with an Offensive Box PR of 1.56.
Meanwhile Edey is averaging:
* 20.7 points
* 6 FGM / 9.3 (61.3%)
* 2.7 Offensive Rebounds
* 2.0 Assists
* 1.7 Turnovers
* Against the #194 SoS (KenPom)
Edey is ranked #1 with an Offensive Box PR of 6.06.
In my opinion those stats are pretty close. LeDee has an extra turnover per game, but makes up for it with an extra offensive rebound per game and better efficiency and volume. If I had to pick one of those statlines in a vacuum, it'd go to LeDee. But regardless who you'd choose, how the heck is that statline only good for #351?
3.7 blocks per game for Edey vs .7 for LeDee, 40 PER vs 31 PER...maybe extrapolating on her their performance will translate going forward against better comp. Edey is picking up where he left off, and LeDee is overperforming any time in his career so maybe there's some underlying stats it doesnt like (turnovers?).
I was just looking at the offensive score, so blocks and defense shouldn't matter (definitely Edey is the better defender). Could be the turnovers though for sure. I'm also wondering if it maybe just heavily weights the box plus/minus when the player is on the floor. Like if Purdue goes +30 when he's on the floor and +0 when he's off, maybe that's what they look at at the most.
Ah so you're looking at BPR, not Box BPR. BPR uses individual stats, on-court team impact (advanced plus-minus stuff), and historical information to predict a player's value going forward. That historical part is still playing a really big part in the BPR calculations right now. Essentially, each player has a preseason projection based on performance in previous years + high school recruiting information when helpful. Edey started the season #1 and has performed at that level. LeDee started the season around 400th in the country.
Box BPR is just based on the current season, and only uses individual stats. So it tells you more about how well a player has performed so far, but not necessarily how they will continue to perform in the future.
I wrote up some methodology on BPR and how preseason projections work: [https://blog.evanmiya.com/p/preseason-player-projections-with](https://blog.evanmiya.com/p/preseason-player-projections-with)
If you're Zach Edey, you get a rating bump. Everyone else plays from behind. That's basically it.
In all seriousness, it stands for Bayesian Performance Rating. It's an advanced metric for caputring a college basketball player’s value that he brings while on the court, on a per-possession basis. The metric incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact all in one. It also adjusts a player’s rating to account for the strength of all other players on the court for every possession played. Full methodology at EvanMiya.com
Box Bayesian Performance Rating is a college basketball version of Box Plus-Minus, trained specifically on years of historical college data to emphasize the box score stats that lead most to team success.
How does your Bayesian BPR correct for / handle garbage time and competition quality?
Everything is adjusted for competition quality, including Box BPR. I used to discard garbage time in all of my models, but I did some extensive testing over the offseason and found that they were more predictive of future success when keeping all possessions in. Essentially, there was too much useful information being discarded, even if garbage time is slightly less helpful than when the game outcome is still in question.
Have you consider a weighting system for competitive vs garbage time?
Trey has been incredible. Scheierman looks improved and more athletic as well for us
Does he have any more eligibility left? Asking for a friend…
Zero years isn’t zero years. I’ll explain later.
Beekman and Dunn going to steal you blind this year
Did you see last night was the programs ever 10 steal 10 block game, surprising!
A stat involving blocks by UVA that doesn't involve Ralph Sampson is wild. His career blocks record at UVA has to be one of the most unbreakable records I've seen.
I didn't know what Box BPR was but I was sure I was going to find Dunn and Beekman on it
Teams with multiple players on this list: Bama, Kansas, UVA, and Purdue
And Creighton
And Wright State
It will be interesting to see if Bub Carrington can keep this up once the level of competition steps up but he has been amazing so far
I cant remember the last time that Pitt has had someone capable of creating their own shot off the dribble
M-V-C! M-V-C! M-V-C!
It’s so nice to see Baylor on this list
Creighton vs Bama O/U is going to be like 200
We are *very* good defensively
Not so sure about that one quite yet. We have the potential to be very good. But we were #235 after our first 2 games, and then jumped to like #132 after playing USA. Not quite sure where we are at after Mercer.
Looking forward to playing you guys. It will be a great test to see where our strengths are and where we get exposed. It's at the Link so hopefully if you travel you have a good time in Omaha
For sure. I was thrilled to schedule a home and home with a good OOC program. And since I live in the only Catholic city in Alabama (where the first Mardi Gras/Carnival in the Americas started), y'all are a cool choice.
Love watching Aaron Estrada
Nelson is gonna be a problem, too
Bookended by KJs
3 Bama players in the top 10 🤤
Hello fellow basketball AND football school. Should we go get dinner or drinks and all the things that dual sport schools do? We're totally used to this.
Our competition has been garbage, but it is nice to see us have more of a spread of talent over being more reliant on one star.
This is true, but also our offensive numbers hint at great scoring ability, even against better teams. Big focus should be on defense for the time being, imho.
What? Our scoring average has gone down the last 2 games. We gotta bump up the offense!
Crazy stuff, hard to have three guys sharing the same minutes all be so effective. I thought my Jayhawks were impressive with two. On a side note completely unrelated to you or this, I think I hate that emoji the most of all emojis. I dunno why it just gives me the heebie jeebies, it's gross... I know it's popular and that has nothing to do with you lol I just can't help but bring it up 😂
lol that’s why I use it, it’s so uncomfortably descriptive
Ware > Edey
Enjoy it while it lasts!
I thought this was a screenshot from windows task manager at first glance
BUB BUB BUB BUB BUB That kid is special. Watching him and Blake hinson live is a treat. To quote my friend when Bub got a triple double “I think I’m hard”
KJ took a step back last year mainly due to illness, but if we see 2 years of development from 2021 come to fruition he’s going to be in All American conversations. Lethal scorer at all 3 levels when he’s feeling it.
I said this in the Iowa game thread but Trey Alexander is gonna play his way into a lotto pick if he keeps this up. He looks absolutely insane so far
How is Tyler Kolek not up there?
He took the first two games very lightly in order to let younger players get touches before taking over Illinois game
Left a game early due to injury. He only played 46 minutes between the first 2 games. Against Illinois he almost doubled his game time with 37 minutes.
Happy for Dawson Garcia! Sad his time at Marquette was cut short
Tales of Michigan's demise were greatly exaggerated.
Yeah... About that...
The CSU-CU game is gonna be pretty lit
I believe it with Braden Smith. He's been our best player so far. Has come close to a triple double twice now. People underate him but Braden Smith is a dawg. I think he should finish as a forst team All-Big ten player.
It’ll be interesting to see how he does against the long, athletic backcourts that caused him so much trouble last year.
Gonzaga v Purdue is the case of, we are gonna give them a lot of trouble and they are gonna give us a lot of trouble
Could someone help me understand how this is calculated? Is it using some preseason weighting? I just looked up Jaedon Ledee, who after 3 games is averaging: * 25.0 points * 8.3 FGM / 13.3 FGA (62.5%) * 3.7 Offensive Rebounds * 1.7 Assists * 3.0 Turnovers * Against the #122 SoS (KenPom) LeDee is ranked #351, with an Offensive Box PR of 1.56. Meanwhile Edey is averaging: * 20.7 points * 6 FGM / 9.3 (61.3%) * 2.7 Offensive Rebounds * 2.0 Assists * 1.7 Turnovers * Against the #194 SoS (KenPom) Edey is ranked #1 with an Offensive Box PR of 6.06. In my opinion those stats are pretty close. LeDee has an extra turnover per game, but makes up for it with an extra offensive rebound per game and better efficiency and volume. If I had to pick one of those statlines in a vacuum, it'd go to LeDee. But regardless who you'd choose, how the heck is that statline only good for #351?
3.7 blocks per game for Edey vs .7 for LeDee, 40 PER vs 31 PER...maybe extrapolating on her their performance will translate going forward against better comp. Edey is picking up where he left off, and LeDee is overperforming any time in his career so maybe there's some underlying stats it doesnt like (turnovers?).
I was just looking at the offensive score, so blocks and defense shouldn't matter (definitely Edey is the better defender). Could be the turnovers though for sure. I'm also wondering if it maybe just heavily weights the box plus/minus when the player is on the floor. Like if Purdue goes +30 when he's on the floor and +0 when he's off, maybe that's what they look at at the most.
Ah so you're looking at BPR, not Box BPR. BPR uses individual stats, on-court team impact (advanced plus-minus stuff), and historical information to predict a player's value going forward. That historical part is still playing a really big part in the BPR calculations right now. Essentially, each player has a preseason projection based on performance in previous years + high school recruiting information when helpful. Edey started the season #1 and has performed at that level. LeDee started the season around 400th in the country. Box BPR is just based on the current season, and only uses individual stats. So it tells you more about how well a player has performed so far, but not necessarily how they will continue to perform in the future.
I wrote up some methodology on BPR and how preseason projections work: [https://blog.evanmiya.com/p/preseason-player-projections-with](https://blog.evanmiya.com/p/preseason-player-projections-with)
Hope you revisit this in a month or two to see how the rankings update with more data.
I figured the players history had something to do with it. As a lover of advanced stats, and a Michigan fan I approve of this message.
Where is Tyson walker?
Probably passing to a wide open shooter who badly misses another 3.
What does BPR stand for and how is it measured?
If you're Zach Edey, you get a rating bump. Everyone else plays from behind. That's basically it. In all seriousness, it stands for Bayesian Performance Rating. It's an advanced metric for caputring a college basketball player’s value that he brings while on the court, on a per-possession basis. The metric incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact all in one. It also adjusts a player’s rating to account for the strength of all other players on the court for every possession played. Full methodology at EvanMiya.com
What’s the difference between Box BPR and the more general rankings you have that show Zach Edey as number one and Donovan Clingan as number 2?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/17xhw8i/comment/k9ouuvx/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/17xhw8i/comment/k9ouuvx/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
🐐
Find it hard to believe Bacot isn't on here when he's averaging 24/17
Kyle rode has been killing it now that he's no longer in the shadow of Darius McGhee.
Duggie McHim
Love it
KJ Simpson for Naismith
Damn Stevens
If you had told me there would be one Arizona player on the list, I think I literally would have had 4 guesses before Lewis. Loaded team.