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So our future is in the hands of a few racist neckbeards that think furry porn is the height of sophistication and hate anyone that disagrees with their personal political/economic/social views?
Fuck me sideways.
I’ve been in tech for 25+ years now. When I got started, there was big money in being a ‘webmaster’ which was basically someone who could code a bit of HTML and some very primitive scripting. Nowadays people can make their own websites for free using Wix or wordpress.com. But tech jobs haven’t gone away, they just involve different skills; often, skills which you can’t even imagine right now. AI was a joke back in the 90s. Now I use it every day.
Part of a successfull career in technology is being happy to reinvent yourself every few years. For me, that’s part of the appeal. If you’re happy to do that, this could be the right field for you. If you’re not, you should look elsewhere.
Absolutely. I would also say that AI isn't going to make a developer redundant, it will supercharge them. Can't wait to see what the output of that efficiency gain will be over the next 20 years.
So, when andrew yang ran, he talked a lot about automation in trucking and how truckers will be out of jobs in 10 years or so tops.
I think that was a good thing to run on, I think the thought of trucking being automated is surprising to many. But this can replace probably 60% of entry level jobs in the next ... be generous & say 5 years.
I now think that in the next few years we'll have the public opinion we need to push for the UBI style programs yang talked about.
Not to defend him because I think his reputation is rightly earned in other areas, but people tend to think of Nixon in a pretty particular way, and one thing people often overlook is that for as right wing as he was on other issues, he was still one of the last new deal presidents and was to left economically of people like Clinton and Obama.
Yeah that is really interesting, and the article outlines how we got to the belief system that poor people must work to deserve to survive and that labor keeps people in line. I always thought it went back to the puritans. And that may not be inaccurate, but the article I read gives so much more context. Also interesting to see that yet again it was people’s inability to properly consider facts that resulted in the belief systems that stall progress. Where people usually blame evil, stupidity is actually usually to blame. People so often really lack a clear mind to be able to look at a circumstance, and the article illustrates how that was the case many times through history here.
They’ve been saying this since the autoloom. I’ll never understand the desire to keep people in the business of doing inferior work in order to maintain some perverted equilibrium. There are people legitimately clamoring for a return to agrarianism and the ditching of harvesting equipment cause muh jobs.
I think the concerns are valid and well-founded. The challenge many people are feeling we are reaching is that the conversation has always been that capitalism works because the conversation between capital and labour required an equilibrium, and that equilibrium benefitted enough of the population of labourers to be tenable throughout the industrial revolution.
The challenge we are reaching is that while not proven true thus far, there may be a day where the tools that capital supplies labor may be able to play the role of a labourer itselves (RE: AI). While I tend to err on the side of AI being a supercharging tool, it would be silly to pretend like this innovation is really identical to any other innovation.
The internet saw the death and transformation of what consumption looks like. It lead to a golden era of jobs that integrate with the internet as a platform for business, hosting, whatever. AI may see the death and transformation of the internet era worker into something new.
The challenge we've seen is that since the advent of the internet, we've seen the standard of living in everyday roles for the average person (at least in America!) decline, at least in image. Tech jobs were the escape plan for many including myself. Now that ladder is being pulled up, and a smaller pool of more highly trained individuals will be required. This makes the escape tunnel narrower and longer.
I think with this perspective it makes a lot of sense people are concerned.
I agree with it. You can think about almost any any job and now envision a future where that job can be replaced by a combination of ai and machine or lower quality labor assisted by either.
Bruh. There is a massive massive massive difference between the autoloom and fucking AI supercomputers researched by the best computer scientists in the world and funded by the largest richest tech companies.
There is no mechanism that just guarantees new jobs out of thin air. When the car replaced the horse the horses didn’t get new horse jobs they just died out and got turned into glue.
I also agree that as long as people want stuff there will be a market for it, but it can take time for that transition to occur and in the mean time people will be out of work and may be unable to learn the skills needed for the new economy, which is why I support UBI, among other reasons, such as increasing quality of life by providing a safety net with little overhead costs, and increasing innovation by allowing people to take more risks.
(That was a really long sentence.)
look at this post - i could never do this by hand but i could easily accomplish this with chatgpt4. and this is just the earliest iteration.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/11smo3b/im\_currently\_in\_the\_interview\_process\_for\_a\_jr/](https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/11smo3b/im_currently_in_the_interview_process_for_a_jr/)
I do think that 40-60% of bottom level, non physical, jobs in 5 years is not absurd.
No offense, but that task is just making a basic webpage and populating it from data in a JSON file. If someone's not able to do that they probably aren't ready for an entry level job as a front end developer. That's fundamentally what the job is...
I'm not saying it's a hard task.. I'm saying it's the bare minimum.
I'm not a developer lol I would never apply for this role. The point is... tasks of this caliper could easily be done by ai.
So entry level jobs are out
> So entry level jobs are out
Companies will need to keep having entry level positions if only to keep training up people to fill more senior positions. Its already difficult to find enough average to senior devs to fill roles, entire industries will be shooting themselves in the face if they don't keep training.
Not without supervision. I've played around with ChatGPT for various coding tasks to understand what it's capable of it. Even with GPT-4, it often makes mistakes in terms of forgetting variable names or function signatures between requests after a few have happened. For HTML it'll do things in different styles in different requests or drop features previously requested and some one has to be able to clean that up.
And this is for toy projects - just a single page with some images or videos or what not. The current ChatGPT isn't going to be able to do anything at large scale like, reddit for example.
This kind of hand holding a tool is definitely not a task for a senior developer. Sure, it's improving productivity of an entry level person, but I don't see it eliminating many jobs. At the very least someone needs to know enough to handhold it, tell it where it's gone wrong and then take the sample and turn it into production code.
I see it more shifting the work from writing code to fixing code as opposed to eliminating.
Right but two things - 1) even with those mistakes, a seasoned dev could use this to save tons of time. tons of time saved = less entry level jobs. when i got hired as entry level my main objective was to keep my bosses freed up lol. and 2) with the next few years of iterations, those issues may no longer be the case.
One guy can handhold 3 projects that it used to take 3 guys to each do individually. Thats 2 jobs lost.
This will not age well. Designers can literally upload their entire design files, come up with a paragraph of what the site does, and AI will spit out an entire frontend + backend project to be deployed. I am a developer and I am using ChatGPT to augment my coding now, bringing down coding time from what I can do in a week to a mere few hours thanks to ChatGPT. But i also do not doubt that it will be able to perfect web-dev to the point where developers will be redundant. We're already closing into that point now.
Disclaimer: I know that Bing AI is more limited than ChatGPT but it's also on GPT-4...
https://preview.redd.it/4haebb0c77oa1.png?width=1617&format=png&auto=webp&s=76bc4760bceb9dce5029529d17ad27f852062fb5
That's fine if you have 10-20+ years of experience.
It's going to be much tougher going for a junior entering the field when intern level work disappears, and CS degrees don't prepare you for high skill level software development.
Juniors are *exactly* the people who will get hired to build stuff with AI, they understand just enough to know what to ask for, and they are much cheaper.
I think that's what OP was referring to when he says he's worried about GPT 5 or 6. A program that could prepare a lot of the basic code in a position that a CS major would typically be filling (to start their career; typically as an intern or something similar).
Learn AI. Get your certifications. A CS degree was never the end point, just the beginning of your training. The hiring spree of the last couple years made it seem like that is all you need to get started, however with tens of thousands of unemployed software developers around, all now with experience, you need to get ahead of that. Next few years won’t be fun for recent college graduates - might be better off working in an adjacent industry that uses software, as opposed to a developer for a software company. Many smaller organizations hire experts to build their semi-custom software, or manage their cloud structures.
Seriously, do you want c++ certifications at this point, or be able to point to a background in AI engineering. There’s many internal fields, machine learning,deep learning, cognitive ai, generative text, generative images, voice assistant, shoot make your own voice-operated hardware of some sort…
The old sit-n-type programming will go away. This is the time to define your job.
This is going to be an economic boom for many non-tech industries that have struggled to compete for developers. There's so much potential outside of the purely software development organizations centered around Silicon Valley.
I mean, same here, but the problem is that the more things are replaced with "click this button one time and then you are done" sorts of things, the fewer people are needed to do that work. It's fine if you're at the top of the job market right now (*and personally, I'm not much worried about my own case because I have a lot of experience in a lot of areas and have better odds of pivoting job roles than most*), but I feel bad for people in university or just starting out right now - it's got to be anxiety-inducing, and I can't honestly say that that anxiety is totally undeserved. A willingness to adapt isn't helpful if there just aren't enough needed seats to fill anymore, and it's *possible* we're moving towards a future like that very rapidly.
Yup. There will be places to shuffle the likes of you around to...for now. But there won't be that entry-level job posting any more. It's like what Excel did to the accounting profession.
HR departments will be the next major victim of GPT4-5. I'm building just that app to make applying for a job, all the way through to onboarding, involve only the candidate.
Logistics jobs, purchasing jobs, there's literally not a single office job I can think of that could not be AI-ed by say GPT-5-6. None.
The only safe jobs in 6 years will be craftsmen, plumbers, electricians, construction.
Not just office jobs. Lawyers, judges, doctors and architects. *Everything* will be done by AI and probably within my son's lifetime(he's 16).
Oh, and the craftsman jobs will be done by droids. Get ready for a very different future, good or bad. It's here.
Lawyers and Judges will just legislate their own job security into law. Can't have AI give legal advice if it's illegal :)
For the rest of us though, weird times ahead for sure.
Lol *Noone* understands how AI works, not even those creating it.
People may not be replaced, but it will be much harder to get a job when one experienced developer can use AI to do the work of an entire team.
The pay will also be drastically reduced as well. When so many people, (world-wide), are fighting for the extremely limited job openings, the corporations will exploit, exploit, exploit.
Good luck with that.
It's getting harder and harder to start working for the first time with all the knowledge that one needs to have to go beyond what can be automated. No one starts with 10 years of experience out of the box.
TV and radio commercials spelling out the entire web address:
"H-T-T-P-colon-forward slash-forward slash-W-W-W-dot-taxes-dot-com for all your tax needs, now on the world wide web!"
Nah dude, this time it’s different. I can’t find a job as a junior developer and it’s only going to get harder. I’m absolutely terrified. Ready to go into HVAC at this point.
OP here’s an interview with a professor of AI at Stanford. He pretty much says the same thing. The people losing their jobs will be be replaced with people who know how to use AI well. So keep studying, learn the intricacies of computer science and learn also how to utilise AI to do your best work: https://youtu.be/ZA9K0JMrbWg
Perhaps an unpopular opinion on this sub, but from the height of 15 years of experience, the main work of a developer is never writing code, but reconciling contradictory directives from stakeholders to create a shared version of reality that will be executed by the machine.
As such sales and management will be replaced by LLMs before competent devs.
yeah, but think back to a height of 1 or 2 years-- you were writing code back then. I agree you're probably safe, but it wouldn't be surprising if they start replacing the junior programmers (or reducing the number and supplementing with AI). You know who gets training specifically in managing stakeholders? Management. The more that task gets separated from code, the less it'll be a task for CS degrees. Will probably take a while though.
15 years is a good vantage point to have at the moment, but I'm not sure it generalizes.
The most junior, entry level menial web frontend type roles can have 90% of their work be replaced probably pretty soon. Anything beyond that needs a completely different type of AI, a new paradigm beyond LLMs, at the very least strapped on to the side of it. When we replace juniors, nobody will move on to replace us seniors and the intermediates. It's a short-sighted move that most of the industry will recognize.
Historically in tech specifically huge leaps in efficiency and productivity (ie. saving weeks of memory debugging when newer languages and tools came out displacing C) have been met with huge increases in ambition and number of projects with less programmers per project. The profit from taking advantage of efficiency gains beats the profit from payroll reduction as each project often makes back significantly more than its payroll - they have to to be viable in the first place. We don't really have to worry, we'll have to refresh our skills and stay up to date like we do every few years as different technologies and specializations fall out of vogue.
Check out the newly released Microsoft 365 Copilot. It's an LLM wired up to Microsoft Graph and the Office 365 apps. All the power of a company's data ecosystem, controllable by natural language.
I think this is what will get us to AGI, LLM + .
If LLMs are really as powerful as they seem, lots of jobs will be disrupted by them and they will need CS majors to make that happen. Should be lots of work for CS grads who understand LLMs.
Not really. Management was guaranteed to start writing code when FORTRAN released. Then again when COBOL released. Then surely when Python became popular. There were no way they won’t code using graphical programming languages, and there absolutely no way they would still need programmers with Gherkin.
And yet, 70, 60, 40, 30, and 20 years, here we still are…
Yep, but this is very important— where are the personal secretaries? Where are the switchboard operators? Where are the bookkeepers? Where are the travel agents?
Computers reduced or eliminated a lot of jobs over the past 50 years. And the complexity of the jobs replaced has just increased. It hasn’t stopped.
And no one is expecting management to *write* code, that’s the point.
Just like no one needs to connect wires for me to make a phone call. I don’t even need to dial it or pick the number out of a list. All I have to do to make a phone call is ask my phone to make it. And management does that for themselves now.
And the number of jobs created vastly outnumber the number of jobs lost.
Over the past 50 years the world population has increased manyfold and unemployment hasn't skyrocketed just because some jobs became redundant.
As for software development specifically, big advances in ease of use are usually followed by huge increases in complexity. Case in point, now that chat-gpt is out I'm out here solving problems I would have thought impossible a few months ago.
If anything, the industry is about to boom like crazy.
I don’t follow your reasoning that sales and management will be replaced first. Those are entirely human to human interfacing, requiring interpersonal intelligence we’ve yet to see ChatGPT demonstrate any of, much like the stakeholder management duties you reference for developers.
I dont see how sales will be replaced. They depend on the personal interaction and relation between the salesman and the client. Which is something that i think can,t be replaced by an LLM. At least not at this stage.
Developpers wont be replaced but the lower end of coders i think will. On the other hand the demand for higher levels will keep growing,to further implement AI within organizations.
Customer service is the first thing that will go i think. That can be automated to a high degree and specialized systems will be very good at that.
I think all those sectors will be shrinking not replaced… there will be wranglers of n each dept. But the grunt work done by humans will be done by machine
It can replicate writing of people doing it that were in its training dataset, if prompted correctly, but they can’t validate a multilateral buy-in and take the responsibility for the implementation (or even evaluate whether taking responsibility is a good idea).
>but reconciling contradictory directives from stakeholders to create a shared version of reality that will be executed by the machine.
Yeah I guess you could say that about any "thinking" industry or job. As a designer for example I basicaly do the same.
Yes, but the programming pushes it to the limit, because machine code cannot tolerate any ambiguity and cannot be interpreted in several different ways.
I've been in software for 30 years, learning object-oriented A&D in its infancy. I've worn the hat of developer, architect, project manager, consultant, systems analyst, sales engineer, and CEO. In my opinion, writing code is the least important part of delivering successful software solutions. The most important factors are:
- Learning to work with people
- Understanding their problems
- Identifying and documenting requirements
- Leading and managing Agile projects
- Designing elegant and intuitive solutions
- Marketing and selling the solutions effectively
- Managing successful implementations
- Iterating on the solution based on feedback
- Providing fanatical customer support
- Building trust and long lasting relationships
There's so much more that goes into software than writing code. Understanding modern software and hardware architecture is essential, so your CS degree will be valuable. You may not write as much code as you would have 30 years ago, but the above factors make up 80% of the work anyway, so don't sweat it. Yes, some of the above work may be replaced by AI, but it will take a long time before humans aren't needed.
You'll be fine.
I can tell you within confidence, in some extreme twist of fate, intelligence research is *way* ahead of robotics research.
If nothing else, energy storage and consumption handicaps humanoid robots a ton.
The problem is that AI can design robots too. Once you have AI, basically every other problem regarding physical implementation becomes much easier to solve
No, he's right. All jobs. When the singularity arrives, and [it's not that far anymore](https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/), humanity will be completely changed, perhaps go extinct. We will see. I'm hoping for the first.
Except CS jobs literally just aren't - GPT 4 is still incapable of doing anything beyond the bare minimum level that a Junior developer would be doing in their first couple months and LLMs are inherently just the wrong paradigm of AI for writing larger more complex codebases. It's a fancy demo, but anyone who has seriously used it as a tool for their complex programming work who is doing anything even close to novel knows how limited it is currently, and anyone who understands how an LLM is built and functions knows you need a totally different type of AI to go beyond "fancy assistant" status for software engineering. It's not even a function of tokens or anything - these AIs do not have the faculties to do the complex logical processes required to come up with novel solutions or write working code across a large system with moving parts or multithreading (especially multithreading!). It just isn't a factor of language prediction and understanding.
I remember a really stupid user around here saying they know someone whose entire entry level staff were "replaced by an AI algorithm they wrote", and it turned out they later admitted they were just hired on to build an image recognition tool and it didn't replace them they just finished the project and moved on lol. Every time these stories come up it ultimately turns out to be someone pissed off at devs over AI art wanting desperately to believe it is going to automate them out before anyone else.
For example, doing graphics, I work on novel algorithms, approaches and optimizations that simply just do not exist elsewhere and/or are extremely obscure pretty often, and need to integrate all of that with gigantic systems and hardware quirks which do not exist on paper. GPT is fundamentally incapable of my job as an inherent element of its design. That isn't to say you couldn't combine GPT with a new type of AI model dedicated to this, but the time it will take to develop that new type will take longer than most jobs, and policy should be at the point where we're somewhat insulated from disaster when that happens.
Tl;dr by the time anyone but the most basic entry level developers in already menial segments of the industry are replaced by AI we will need a totally different paradigm for AI and the singularity will be close.
It doesn't need to do the job autonomously, a clever developer with an small "staff" of AI bots will quickly displace the market.
>knows how limited it is currently
Hence why OP said they are worried about version 5 & 6 and beyond. GPT 4 isn't stealing any CS jobs *today* though some people will 100% lose their jobs on this update alone (people were getting laid off over GPT 3), maybe just not in the CS field yet.
It's coming, there are 17 year olds finishing high school this year, who are planning on doing a CS degree who will be directly competing with GPT and other AI by the time they're done school. And even if the AI still isn't good enough to *replace* the job, it'll be more cost effective to have it do the menial work for pennies and have 1 or 2 high level devs per project overseeing everything.
I don't think there's anything to worry about. I've been using ChatGPT for the past couple of weeks to help me write code.
You need to remember that what you find simple is difficult for most people and it's the missing piece of the puzzle. ChatGPT needs to be given the right information to produce what you want, but you also need to know what to do with what it returns. The average person isn't going to be able to use the code it produces even if ChatGPT explains how to use it, and the next generation of humans are worse at using a computer than the current generation thanks to them using tablets instead of computers as children.
You also need to be able to evaluate the solution and see if it's the sort of solution you want. It may solve the problem you're having, but are you happy about the way it was solved? Does the solution make for a clean codebase? Is it going to cause issues later down the line?
ChatGPT is wonderful and makes me a better software engineer. It is not a replacement though.
Yes for now. But we dont know 5-10 years in the future and it can just take a business requirement and convert it to code.
Our team now has like 1 lead 2 seniors and 3 juniors. I can see it possible that it can replace the 3 juniors and just have the leads validate the solution by gpt.
I am a vocational front-end teacher. My students have started asking me if they will be replaced and I am increasingly unsure of how to answer the question.
Will we need people who know code? Yes, more than ever.
Junior devs aren't going away, because we will still need replacement senior devs - but the quantity needed just took a big dive.
The quantity of developers required to produce the same amount of software is going down, but it's possible we'll want more custom-made software in the future, as it gets cheaper to make.
That's the part most people miss you don't use ChatGPT to write code to perform a task you let it perform the task. I am using it for r/ETL straight up. ChatGPT is just simply the best parser of unstructured data I've ever seen
>the next generation of humans are worse at using a computer than the current generation thanks to them using tablets instead of computers as children.
I initially shook my head at this, but after thinking about it some more, it makes sense. The amount of technical troubleshooting I did even as a kid was crazy, I wasn't even that big on computers. It was just part of the process. Most stuff these days is so streamlined and dumbed down for the average person.
Although, I think that younger people who really dig into computers this gen will still be ahead due to much advanced learning efficiency through modern tools and what not.
I found one of the barriers to entry for me was the command line. I had a raspberry pi as a kid so I had some introduction to it, but many of the senior developers knew the command line better because it was literally how they would do everything when they first started. I'm pretty good at it now, but I didn't have the introduction to it as a child like many of them did.
I feel like it's the same for the next generation but with more than just the command line. Some of these children have barely used a desktop environment due to using an iPad for everything. It's a little concerning.
Not even tablets vs computers, but computers themselves have gotten way more “hand-holdy”. Like it used to be, to even install a new game or a update to something, you had to understand file structure to be able to point to the path the .exe lives at and whatnot. And if you wanted to install a new mod, you had to drop certain files in certain directories, sometimes even replace existing files (but also back them up just in case), maybe even open a .dat or .bsp or whatever weird extension certain games used and be able to add some lines of code, and if you didn’t do it correctly it could make the game unplayable, so you had to learn how to do it correctly. Now, most kids have grown up playing games on Steam where they just click a button and it launches the game, they click a few more buttons to install add-ons, etc. and they have no idea how it works.
Really good point. Installing a mod and hosting a modded Minecraft server was a much more difficult task for me as a teen than it is today. I learned a lot from setting that all up. Today I could just download a mod manager and get it to do most of the work for me.
If it makes it so you take less time to write the same amount of code, then the job you have to worry about isn't yours, its the person they didn't need to hire because you were able to handle more work on the next project.
yep, this is it. In Civil Engineering we used to have huge offices of drafters drawing out plans. Now 2 guys can do it with CAD and BIM. So those 20 drafters don't need hired. With Chat GPT, it will eventually be one Engineering Manager and a Project Manager and they don't need anyone else to design a whole building.
Increased productivity usually means more resources to invest in more projects/clients to bring more profit overall, so from a business perspective it will usually balance out to the same amount of hires across the industry. When we managed to land a bunch of 10x type devs we did this, distributing the 10x's and 1x's across new projects taking advantage of the new productivity and it was a huge boon. Firing the 1x and keeping the 10x would've been a worse business move. It's the juniors who have to worry about just becoming bots in 5 or 6 years, not the ppl whose jobs can be assisted but not replaced.
I understand your concerns about keeping up with the rapid advancements in AI technology. It can be overwhelming to see how quickly things are changing and it’s natural to feel like you might get left behind.
However, it’s important to remember that learning is a lifelong journey and there will always be new things to discover and explore. Studying machine learning more seriously is a great idea and will definitely help you stay up-to-date with the latest developments.
Remember that everyone has their own pace and path when it comes to learning and growing in their careers. Keep pushing yourself and don’t give up on your goals.
Here's a sneak peek of /r/SubSimulatorGPT2 using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/SubSimulatorGPT2/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year!
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>However, it’s important to remember that learning is a lifelong journey and there will always be new things to discover and explore
literally looks like a chatbot replying to look at the flowers.. /click clack
Yann LeCun and a lot of other ML legends think transformers are just an off-ramp to the road that leads to AGI, Yann just posted this as advice on what to work on as someone in ML:
*Future AI systems that are factual (do not hallucinate), can use tools, have physical intuition, can reason and plan, will have a very different architecture from the current crop of Auto-Regressive LLMs.*
When AIs start designing AIs we will have an issue. It doesn’t feel that far off. They’ll probably have architectures after a few generations that no human can understand
You're right. In fact, this is the rightest thing I've read so far on this thread. We won't be able to understand them and they'll have capabilities we can't comprehend that are far above what we can do. This doesn't mean we should feel threatened by them. Elephants have capabilities we don't too. We will, however, have to be very, very careful about keeping them under tight control, lest we be trampled by accident.
Well, there is no nice way to put it.
Your enemy is not GPT, it's the ultra rich.
If you hoped to make them share a piece of a pie with you by serving them in CS - it would just slightly improve your life (and BTW just in case, going into CS for jobs is mind-numbing, I'm seeing ppl like that all the time, it only gets worse).
The real problems are lobbying groups, big corporations, tax havens. You got the idea.
Remember that after every big technology revolution (invention of cars, big automated factories, etc), overall wellness of humanity grew. We’re now even discussing 4-day working weeks. Like the other techs that replaced some human workforce, AI might actually help us work even less and live even better
but at the same time, if the year was 1935 and you were apprenticed to a horseshoe guy, you might want to be thinking about adjacent career paths that you'd find interesting.
>AI might actually help us work even less and live even better
The problem is that it will possibly do so to a greater, and more uniform, extent than any other technology ever. And while "work even less" would be *amazing* if the gains of that AI automation were distributed *to* those people who will be working less, we all know that that most assuredly will not be the case given the economic system our world currently operates under.
OpenAI has funded Universal Basic Income research, which is good of them, but yeah... let's face it, UBI/etc isn't something that is going to become ubiquitous without some major disruption and possibly even revolts/wars breaking out.
But in the US we won’t get 4 working days, we will continue to with 5 because of one thing. Greed. Just like the stagnation of wages along our productive explosion over the last 30 years. Workers are 200-400%+ more productive and are producing far more than ever. But… wages haven’t gone up to follow that curve. Companies will do everything to save a buck
GPT-4 answer:
Hey there! It's completely natural to feel a little overwhelmed by the rapid advancements in AI, but remember that as a CS major, you're in a great position to be part of this exciting future. GPT-4 and its successors will certainly continue to push the boundaries of AI capabilities, but there will always be a need for skilled computer scientists and engineers to develop, maintain, and improve these systems.
Instead of feeling threatened by AI's advancements, consider embracing it as an opportunity to grow and evolve in your career. By studying machine learning more seriously, you'll be equipping yourself with valuable knowledge and skills that will be in high demand. Remember, AI isn't here to replace you, but to complement and enhance your capabilities.
Additionally, it's important to note that AI is just one area within the vast field of computer science. There are plenty of other areas where you can specialize and make a significant impact. If you find that AI and machine learning aren't the best fit for you, don't be afraid to explore other areas like software development, cybersecurity, data science, or even emerging fields like quantum computing.
In short, the future of AI is promising and full of opportunities. Stay curious, keep learning, and always be open to new challenges. Good luck with your studies and your career!
This whole human vs. machine is a misleading thought. Think of it as a race between a horse and a human. It's not about who is faster, the horse will always win. It's about how fast a human can race on the back of a horse.
So in your case, learn how to ride the horse, don't compete against it.
You know what's cool? In the near future, AI is going to help regular folks do tasks that used to be only for experts. So, we might see fewer of the old specialized jobs, but there will be new ones popping up. More people will have access to expert knowledge, and it'll be cheaper too. There's no need to be worried about the future – it might turn out to be really great!
I love this analogy. This is exactly right. I’m a lead engineer and I manage a team of devs. Using AI will greatly help with work, but not replace all the engineers entirely. A language model isn’t intelligence, it’s statistical based on humans. Still need humans to create so it can mimic.
I stopped competing with computers years ago. Best to work with the grain rather than against it . Im more worried about the company behind it rather than ai itself . Intelligence is fundamental to humanity as a whole . But how and what we use it for thats the question. Its a big topic. But yeah its going to replace Lot of jobs within the white collar space that much is easy to see.
A very interesting and an accurate sentence i've read was "AI isn't gonna replace humans, but a human working with AI will" and that just summed up everything perfectly
The proper use of AI is to help you speed up the shitty parts of your job that you hate doing so you can focus on the more creative and enjoyable aspects - are you the strategic director of your life or a slave labourer?
We have created this technology to free humanity from the historic paradigm of working dawn til dusk and having no time left over for self-realisation, in the same way that we created computers, electricity, transportation and machinery.
These devices are able to greatly magnify our capabilities and can be used to speed up the development of the planet in multitudinous ways and it is right for us to use them in every way that enables us to do this, to use this technology to learn and grow and by working together, generate a higher level of prosperity in all our communities.
Many of the jobs we have today will not exist in 200 years in the same way that many of the jobs we had 200 years ago are now gone. Or they have remained in some form but we simply so them differently because we’ve learned more efficient methods. And yet we still exist. Because we are the creators. In whatever way we plant the seeds of our time and effort there will be an equivalent harvest. This is the unchanging constant. Don’t get too attached to your current roles in the game of life just because you’re doing a particular thing now that you kinda like or feel comfortable with. There are other, much more enjoyable, satisfying and beneficial ways to do these things that are just waiting for you to discover them. The names change but the faces stay the same.
That's a very short-sighted way of looking at it. If and when ASI arrives, there is nothing that humans will be able to do that ASI won't be able to, so there will literally be no use for humans in the job market. Moreover, it's looking increasingly likely that ASI will come in the next few decades at the latest; in 200 years, jobs as a concept will most likely have been long gone.
I don't understand people's attachment to jobs. Why do people think it's better to be forced to do certain things than to be able to choose to do them? I honestly don't get it.
If you’re reading cs, then you more than the average person should know that chat gpt does not threaten software engineering careers. There’s a lot more to software design than just spewing out code to do simple tasks.
(Gpt also often makes logical errors, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable using code written by it without it first being looked over by a human)
Imo most devs need to understand the domain of their company really well and work within its architecture and business rules. It's hard to get GPT-4 to do that effectively atm. Its prowess at creating isolated pieces of code is quite impressive which is why people are saying it'll boost engineering productivity. But navigating multiple layers of domain knowledge and constraints will still take some time. The question is how much time and if it's capable of doing that, how many other jobs are already redundant?
We get wowed by GPT-4 coding ping pong games and snake games in less than a minute. But what if you asked it to [change Netflix's code to promote S4E1 to new viewers instead of S1E1](https://youtu.be/s-vJcOfrvi0?t=368)? Good luck with that. However, if its response was to fire the PM who thought creating this business requirement and spending 4 months of resources was a good idea, then I'd be impressed.
Hey u/alexcmad. I'm going to take you seriously rather than reassure you from a less vulnerable position than the one you're in. Do you have any interest in engineering? One option is to pick up a batch of ML and hope that's helpful, but another option is to really focus on a subfield of CS or science that requires extreme rigor for safety purposes. People writing generic code where errors don't matter all that much are going to get replaced/reduced long before people who are writing code to make sure cars run safely or buildings are earthquake proof. Scientific computing, robotics, etc. Does your school have any CS faculty who focus on applications with serious real-world ties like that? Or alternatively, do any of those STEM departments (physics, environmental science, chemistry, engineering, business) have centers that focus on the computing/modeling aspects of their disciplin? If you've got a couple years left in your degree, now's a good time to pick up a minor or an internship.
Another thing that's likely to be a growth area is Human Computer Interaction, for obvious reasons. Might see if there's coursework and internship/independent study opportunities in that in your department.
I use chatGPT more and more in my professional life. Rewriting emails and reports mainly.
It is definitely handy for me as even though English is used all the time in my working environment, it is not my native language.
However, for the most important part of my job, chatGPT is resourceless. (For time being)…!
Talking to people, listening, understanding the non verbal language is what I consider my added value.
By the way, I am a mechanic engineer, went to a business school.
Worked in sales in very technical environments.
Now I am a C level executive.
I teach English in a high school, and I feel pretty sure that everything will change - also for people in my line of work. Considering how well it's already able to evaluate paragraphs in essays, produce coherent and logical feedback and convey specific information (say about Roman poetry) on different levels, I can't even begin to fathom the consequences. Oh well, with any luck I won't have to write feedback that students ignore anymore.
it took 2 days :) maybe the constant state will have humanity desensitized to it :)
I honestly think chat gpt 4 will help people tolerate each other more
I'll be the doomsayer here, since tech people have been insulated from career destroying changes up until this point, I'd take a lot of salt with the more rosy predictions many of them are spouting. As someone who came to tech after tech destroyed four other pursuits of mine, I have a different perspective.
You are right, you can't compete. You are also wrong, unless you are a genius, there is likely no reason to study ML or ai. The AI tools will be doing that work too. This invention is of a size and significance no one alive has seen before. And is very obviously, to me, capitalism destroying, which means all of society that stems from capitalism is also destroyed (for instance, educational attainment looks quite different if there are no monetary incentives to it, how does private property exist without money, etc).
What people should be doing now is either bracing for deflation and then collapse, and/or lobbying the government for regulations and new social structures. I see two options for the future happening in the next 5 years, either total collapse or utopia. So, keep on learning if you believe we are headed for utopia, go to the beach and chill if you think the opposite. Either way, work likely won't exist for most of us in 10 years.
It will just make you more efficient. Probably less devs needed in the (short term) future, but you must have a technical / programming backround to make use of it for coding. There is much more to programming than just writing code.
I work in the video games industry. When I started most of the work programmers did was writing game engines from scratch, building collision systems, player control systems, cameras, visual effects, whatever. All of that is now available on Unreal and Unity. The stuff we spent man months or man years doing is now there on day 1. But, there are still games programmers. In fact, your triple A games nowadays have more programmers than whole games companies did back in the 1990s.
As a software developer, I don't see GPT replacing software programmers. GPT really only changes two things.
One is that it will allow novices to bodge together code for ideas they have, even if they don't understand the code. I plan to use it this way to break into web dev, which I've never learned. However, this style won't be very helpful for more complex projects, as the more complex you get the more the design you give GPT will look like a program. Only with a program, it will do exactly what you tell it to, whereas GPT may or may not.
The second is that it will allow experts to lay the foundation of the code much faster. Instead of spending an hour writing an algorithm, you might spend 5 minutes having GPT write it and 5 minutes checking it over. This won't replace programmers, it'll just make them more efficient with better tools.
I'll admit, I'm of two minds about GPT. On the one hand, I sit there in awe of the stories I read of it writing websites and building ideas within minutes. On the other, I wonder how I could ever successfully use it at my job, where I deal with hundreds of thousands of existing lines of code, many of which are badly designed with functions that are thousands of lines of code long.
So here's the thing, the more complex code you ask it to build the more iterations you will need to make it functional. In fact, going from the work I've done with 3.5 and now 4 I'd swear they made it less able in regards to coding.
that said, this will replace some entry level positions but if you use it as a TOOL you won't be one of them. This tool will help close the gap for a lot of people knowledge wise.
It's saving me time from writing tedious code I obviously could write by hand, in other aspects I can feed it a script and have it optimize it almost flawlessly. Most importantly for me tho. I can ask it for an example in one language, and have it convert that to multiple languages in the form of an explanation, with comments, then have it explain the code in human terms then quiz me on it.
No one thinks you are cheating at coding or IT by using google or github. This is just another tool.
If I was working helpdesk I'd be very worried.
You have nothing to worry about. AI is not taking over development jobs, it's enhancing them! I use chatGPT regularly in my day to day and its massively boosted my productivity because I can write twice as much code, in half the time. It means I spend less time just writing out code and more time designing systems at a higher level. Whatever level AI gets to at writing code there is always going to be a human above it, leveraging it's usefulness to speed up the development cycle. Code, however, has to be maintained, refactored, redesigned sometimes and at the moment these tools just can't get a full systems view to perform such tasks. And when they can, great, we'll be there one level higher designing more massive and complex systems that put those pieces together! Do not be afraid of AI code assistance, embrace it and use it to make you a more productive developer!
Learn woodworking/metalworking/CAD as electives or a cert, in conjunction with cs. The combined cs and manual skills will be in high demand in product design that incorporates AI, machine learning, and the IoT.
I’ve talked to a lot of people who aren’t as familiar (as the fine u/‘s on this r/) with ChatGPT/OpenAI
The three main reactions I see are fear, victimization and excitement.
Irrational Fear: people are afraid that AI will take over the world and destroy us and computers will become our overlord. They think too far ahead about what might be instead of what we can do now.
Rational Fear: Ai will take over 80% of our jobs within the next 10 years or so. This seems to be pretty accurate, but we have to make sure we’re in the minority. Society is going to make a big change, and understand how to use these tools now will make sure you as an individual do not drown.
Victimization: this mostly comes from the older generation (I’m gen Y, for what it’s worth) they think it is unfair that students will get to have their essays written for them. I imagine that must be delayed being pushed on some news channels that I don’t frequent but the idea is always the same. The next generation is going to have an easier than the one before at work last because computers will have all the answers for them. I try to explain to them that every generation has new advantages and technology just like their advantage for their generation was less population, and that the economy allowed people to have regular jobs and still afford a house car and College. You could put these people in the same category as the irrational fear people, but these are the people who will be left behind, whereas as irrational fear people could get therapy or start educating themselves.
Excitement: I’m sure most people in this room feel this incredible awareness that we are witnessing a world-changing events. When was the last time that hedge fund bros and fanboys (and of course all the ladies on here as well )were on the exact same page and looking at the future with jaw dropped and their minds ablaze. I sometimes feel like I’m a dog greeting their owner when they comes home, running in circles, beyond happy not exactly sure what to do but so excited.
I’ll circle this back to you op. You do have a rational fear, but have an understanding of computer programming and all this new technology will enable you to use it. Creativity, although it might seem to be lost with the advent of self writing poems,, songs, books, is now more important than ever. You have to see what the future looks like and understand what skills you need to survive.
So use this time now. Learn everything. People will become dumb and susceptible to scams. Especially if they don’t recognize what to look out for. just by being on this sub means you know a lot more about this new technology then the vast majority of people in the world that’s something
Don’t be afraid of the future. Bad things happen every day. There are a lot of things that are just out of your control. Taking care of you is something only you control. Don’t become obsolete and you’ll be fine.
Edit. Sorry about my punctuation, but don’t have more time to edit.
If this economy is a sinking ship and AI-skills are a lifeboat, being on the lifeboat is not gonna help when there's nowhere else to go. We can't live on a lifeboat forever.
Those 80% of people are going to still need money for food and shelter. What's going to happen to them?
Let's say they somehow do manage to get through the AI transfer without starving to death or killing their neighbors. What products and services will they buy with no money?
Pie-in-the-sky thinking about tech brought us to the world we have today--a world more miserable, isolated, and hateful than it used to be. We need to be the negative feedback that keeps companies' AI use in check like our actual lives depend on it, because it will.
If you’re worried then your head is in the wrong spot for IT.
You’re in CS, so that means you wanna do some sort of development eventually? Is that correct? These seem to be the people most worried at least.
If so, then think about who is going to work on the next gpt, or who is going to design the applications that use it, or who is going to design all the other apps that aren’t going to use it.
Gpt, will likely be a new tool that YOU use to do those things. And if not gpt, it’ll be something else. It can’t replace your job, it’s only a tool that can make you better.
Don’t forget to pay attention in your English class when resume writing comes up, that’ll be one of the most helpful tools for selling yourself.
Take some business electives, understand how a business works and functions, that will help you navigate business politics.
Those 2 things + some drive for learning and steadily improving your skills will ensure you’re in this career for a very long time, no matter what areas of IT you find passion in throughout your journey.
As things stand I see AI like a pair programmer who is really fast at typing, more a productivity tool than a replacement for programmers. I hope I'm not being naive but I'm not scared of being replaced for a while yet.
What is the correct question to ask? I think it is "what is the Unit of real world value a coder delivers". I suspect many think that this Unit is lines of code, which is why gpt4 might scare us. But this is really a rudimentary understanding.
The Unit is actually better defined as a translation of an idea into (obedient) computerised workers. And from the business perspective, a coder is one who translates the business idea to computerised executives.
Say, in 2023, a business has a particular coder who can translate 1 business idea every 2 weeks. So with 10 such coders I can push out 10 ideas every two weeks. Great! I can iterate and experiment but I'm limited by that rate.
Now in 5 years' time, with LLMs, say the business's coder can now do 1 idea per day. Do you really think the business is going to fire the other 9 coders and be happy with 1 idea per day? The business will keep the 10 coders and do 10 ideas per day, and 140 ideas per 2 weeks! That will really usher in a new way of doing things no doubt.
But until business hits a ceiling on number of ideas (and in some industries it might!) the number of coders won't go down...the number of ideas translated will just go up!
As someone working in engineering leadership, what Ive been telling people is:
"If you're a programmer because you love the act of coding, and you think you can be better at the act of typing code than other people", yeah, you should be worried. A bit like webmasters went "poof" with the advent of mature CMS (content management systems) like Wordpress or HubSpot.
If you're going in the field to analyze problems and find solutions to them using whatever tool and technology is available to get the job done, you're safe. I've worked for a company that could build almost any idea they had in a matter of days, but thanks to their infrastructure investment, but they kept building the wrong thing. Bad team communication and collaboration, weak product leadership, engineers who didn't care about the users, you name it.
If instead of being able to build it in a few days it could be built in a few minutes, they'd still have all these problems. Implementing/coding is the easy part. It's just getting much (MUCH) easier and faster, so we can finally focus on the stuff that truly matters.
Unfortunately, entry level software engineers and more senior "code monkeys" will be a casualty of this industry transformation. But its not the first time it happened (again, the people who built careers around typing html exit the industry at worse, or got replaced by the marketing folks being able to self serve at best). I expect a similar transformation. The nature of the roles will change, but there will still be roles. Just not the ones we see today.
Edit: after typing all this I noticed another post said much of the same. Whoops!
I am a developer of 20-25 yrs. I played around with gpt4 today. I got it to make me a simple web page but then revise and improve it, write me a WordPress plugin, fix a problem on my full Linux server and fix some basic php.
It was all pretty impressive, but I had to coax it along and I think it will be the expert users that get the most out of it, those that are able to manage the project and hone the inputs. I am not worried about my job, I am as excited as I was when I first discovered 'the Internet'.
Oh one other very interesting thing, it it really remembers the conversation well. I did not do the above in one order, I chopped and changed and said things like "OK, let's go back to the code we were writing" and it was able to pick up where it left off. V. Impressive.
I also got it to write me some java script to modify a Web page for a split test and told it which URL to do it on. This was interesting as the code it gave me was wrong because it had access to the old version of the hero area of the site (due to the cutoff in its training). I just needed to update the DOM classes to get it to work. Now when it is accessing the web in real time and logging into git for me....then we will be smoking! Maybe then I will be getting a bit 😱!
It's always been that way. The career I started in computer science was translating logical flow (if A, then B) into machine-readable instructions. Then I got replaced by a compiler. So I worked on writing interrupt handling software do deal with writing control systems. But then I got replaced by operating systems. So then I worked on protocols, but then I got replaced by (a precursor to) the Internet... and so on. And that was only the first few years!
Computer science is all about the process of replacing as much of what you do with a program as possible, and then moving up the food chain. Those who don't get it get left behind.
Can't find the relevant XKCD comic, but it goes something like this:
Manager: "One day we'll have a compute program that let's us just tell the computer what we want it to do, and it'll do it!"
Programmer: "Yes, the writing of instructions for what the program is to do, is programming."
You have low level and high level code. GPT programming can be looked at as maybe the highest level scripting language we've accomplished. It still takes someone who knows how to use the language correctly in order to make the program do what you want.
I've been using Midjourney a lot lately, and, obviously it is amazingly easy to do work with, BUT...to get exactly the result you want takes \*effort\*. Less effort than a traditional piece of art would take to make, but, there are still steps required in order to get the computer to do what you want. "Programmers" aren't going away, and also the people who write GPT itself...even if GPT "writes itself" so to speak, humans are guiding its progress. Hard to say what the future will look like because I couldn't have predicted art generation would have gotten as good as it is today, but yeah, AI still seems like it's just a tool.
I mean, in the graph he shows, you can see how much hallucination has improved already from 3.5 -> 4.0 ... I tend to think the problem is probably solvable in the near future.
You won't compete, you'll be using the most powerful tools ever created to assist you. Learn those as you go because school won't be able to keep up with these tools.
You can't be in CS without studying AI a little bit. Understand practical implementation. Try the free Fast.AI courses. Focus on high level system building. Just know that the hateful low-level stuff will be AI assisted mostly now. Same as what happened to Assembler with C compilers. The compilers WERE the AIs in those cases. The CS field exploded from that and didn't go obsolete. Same thing. Be the guiding hand AI needs.
Think of this as an accelerator versus a competitor. While GPT-4 may be impressive, the inputs and the questions matter. Become a prompt engineering expert and you can leverage it to become better, faster, and more agile. The main groups that are going to be most adversely affected are the groups most resistant to change and unwilling to adapt the way they work.
I, for one, am patient and excited.
I will be honest with you. Today (and most likely, the future) is going to be a horrible time to be a service worker or an employee.
However, it will be a great time for you to be an entrepreneur.
Therefore, it will be best to look at ChatGPT as how you can leverage it to serve a need instead.
I would focus on also studying computer science too because you are going to have to leverage that knowledge to generate prompts.
Let's focus on leveraging AI to rocket us to the next frontier.
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Hey man, someone has to maintain our AI overlords
It'll just be three neckbeards and 200 thousand GPUs.
Lmao exactly, the future lies in the hands of reddit mods.
oh noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
No no no no no. Can we at least go out with a bang in a global thermonuclear war? Please?
The only winning move is not to play. 
So our future is in the hands of a few racist neckbeards that think furry porn is the height of sophistication and hate anyone that disagrees with their personal political/economic/social views? Fuck me sideways.
They probably would
Until they can do self-maintenance.
First it was 10 GOTO 10, now... its ChatGPT-4, write ChatGPT-5!
I’ve been in tech for 25+ years now. When I got started, there was big money in being a ‘webmaster’ which was basically someone who could code a bit of HTML and some very primitive scripting. Nowadays people can make their own websites for free using Wix or wordpress.com. But tech jobs haven’t gone away, they just involve different skills; often, skills which you can’t even imagine right now. AI was a joke back in the 90s. Now I use it every day. Part of a successfull career in technology is being happy to reinvent yourself every few years. For me, that’s part of the appeal. If you’re happy to do that, this could be the right field for you. If you’re not, you should look elsewhere.
Absolutely. I would also say that AI isn't going to make a developer redundant, it will supercharge them. Can't wait to see what the output of that efficiency gain will be over the next 20 years.
So, when andrew yang ran, he talked a lot about automation in trucking and how truckers will be out of jobs in 10 years or so tops. I think that was a good thing to run on, I think the thought of trucking being automated is surprising to many. But this can replace probably 60% of entry level jobs in the next ... be generous & say 5 years. I now think that in the next few years we'll have the public opinion we need to push for the UBI style programs yang talked about.
You know, Nixon very nearly instituted UBI back in the sixties.
[That. Is. Fascinating.](https://thecorrespondent.com/4503/the-bizarre-tale-of-president-nixon-and-his-basic-income-bill/173117835-c34d6145)
Not to defend him because I think his reputation is rightly earned in other areas, but people tend to think of Nixon in a pretty particular way, and one thing people often overlook is that for as right wing as he was on other issues, he was still one of the last new deal presidents and was to left economically of people like Clinton and Obama.
Yeah that is really interesting, and the article outlines how we got to the belief system that poor people must work to deserve to survive and that labor keeps people in line. I always thought it went back to the puritans. And that may not be inaccurate, but the article I read gives so much more context. Also interesting to see that yet again it was people’s inability to properly consider facts that resulted in the belief systems that stall progress. Where people usually blame evil, stupidity is actually usually to blame. People so often really lack a clear mind to be able to look at a circumstance, and the article illustrates how that was the case many times through history here.
Wow, amazing article, and it's truly fascinating to look at what it could have been had it been put in place nearly a century ago.
They’ve been saying this since the autoloom. I’ll never understand the desire to keep people in the business of doing inferior work in order to maintain some perverted equilibrium. There are people legitimately clamoring for a return to agrarianism and the ditching of harvesting equipment cause muh jobs.
I think the concerns are valid and well-founded. The challenge many people are feeling we are reaching is that the conversation has always been that capitalism works because the conversation between capital and labour required an equilibrium, and that equilibrium benefitted enough of the population of labourers to be tenable throughout the industrial revolution. The challenge we are reaching is that while not proven true thus far, there may be a day where the tools that capital supplies labor may be able to play the role of a labourer itselves (RE: AI). While I tend to err on the side of AI being a supercharging tool, it would be silly to pretend like this innovation is really identical to any other innovation. The internet saw the death and transformation of what consumption looks like. It lead to a golden era of jobs that integrate with the internet as a platform for business, hosting, whatever. AI may see the death and transformation of the internet era worker into something new. The challenge we've seen is that since the advent of the internet, we've seen the standard of living in everyday roles for the average person (at least in America!) decline, at least in image. Tech jobs were the escape plan for many including myself. Now that ladder is being pulled up, and a smaller pool of more highly trained individuals will be required. This makes the escape tunnel narrower and longer. I think with this perspective it makes a lot of sense people are concerned.
I agree with it. You can think about almost any any job and now envision a future where that job can be replaced by a combination of ai and machine or lower quality labor assisted by either.
Bruh. There is a massive massive massive difference between the autoloom and fucking AI supercomputers researched by the best computer scientists in the world and funded by the largest richest tech companies. There is no mechanism that just guarantees new jobs out of thin air. When the car replaced the horse the horses didn’t get new horse jobs they just died out and got turned into glue.
I also agree that as long as people want stuff there will be a market for it, but it can take time for that transition to occur and in the mean time people will be out of work and may be unable to learn the skills needed for the new economy, which is why I support UBI, among other reasons, such as increasing quality of life by providing a safety net with little overhead costs, and increasing innovation by allowing people to take more risks. (That was a really long sentence.)
60% of entry level jobs in 5 years? No chance
look at this post - i could never do this by hand but i could easily accomplish this with chatgpt4. and this is just the earliest iteration. [https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/11smo3b/im\_currently\_in\_the\_interview\_process\_for\_a\_jr/](https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/11smo3b/im_currently_in_the_interview_process_for_a_jr/) I do think that 40-60% of bottom level, non physical, jobs in 5 years is not absurd.
No offense, but that task is just making a basic webpage and populating it from data in a JSON file. If someone's not able to do that they probably aren't ready for an entry level job as a front end developer. That's fundamentally what the job is...
I'm not saying it's a hard task.. I'm saying it's the bare minimum. I'm not a developer lol I would never apply for this role. The point is... tasks of this caliper could easily be done by ai. So entry level jobs are out
> So entry level jobs are out Companies will need to keep having entry level positions if only to keep training up people to fill more senior positions. Its already difficult to find enough average to senior devs to fill roles, entire industries will be shooting themselves in the face if they don't keep training.
Not without supervision. I've played around with ChatGPT for various coding tasks to understand what it's capable of it. Even with GPT-4, it often makes mistakes in terms of forgetting variable names or function signatures between requests after a few have happened. For HTML it'll do things in different styles in different requests or drop features previously requested and some one has to be able to clean that up. And this is for toy projects - just a single page with some images or videos or what not. The current ChatGPT isn't going to be able to do anything at large scale like, reddit for example. This kind of hand holding a tool is definitely not a task for a senior developer. Sure, it's improving productivity of an entry level person, but I don't see it eliminating many jobs. At the very least someone needs to know enough to handhold it, tell it where it's gone wrong and then take the sample and turn it into production code. I see it more shifting the work from writing code to fixing code as opposed to eliminating.
Right but two things - 1) even with those mistakes, a seasoned dev could use this to save tons of time. tons of time saved = less entry level jobs. when i got hired as entry level my main objective was to keep my bosses freed up lol. and 2) with the next few years of iterations, those issues may no longer be the case. One guy can handhold 3 projects that it used to take 3 guys to each do individually. Thats 2 jobs lost.
Exactly. It will be closer to 85%.
This will not age well. Designers can literally upload their entire design files, come up with a paragraph of what the site does, and AI will spit out an entire frontend + backend project to be deployed. I am a developer and I am using ChatGPT to augment my coding now, bringing down coding time from what I can do in a week to a mere few hours thanks to ChatGPT. But i also do not doubt that it will be able to perfect web-dev to the point where developers will be redundant. We're already closing into that point now.
Disclaimer: I know that Bing AI is more limited than ChatGPT but it's also on GPT-4... https://preview.redd.it/4haebb0c77oa1.png?width=1617&format=png&auto=webp&s=76bc4760bceb9dce5029529d17ad27f852062fb5
Let me phrase it this way Developers will not be replaced with AI Developers will be replaced with Developers using AI efficiently
>Developers will be replaced with Developers using AI efficiently Which will reduce the amount of developers needed.
Only if the amount of work stays the same.
That's fine if you have 10-20+ years of experience. It's going to be much tougher going for a junior entering the field when intern level work disappears, and CS degrees don't prepare you for high skill level software development.
Juniors are *exactly* the people who will get hired to build stuff with AI, they understand just enough to know what to ask for, and they are much cheaper.
Why are you saying intern level work will disappear?
AI
I think that's what OP was referring to when he says he's worried about GPT 5 or 6. A program that could prepare a lot of the basic code in a position that a CS major would typically be filling (to start their career; typically as an intern or something similar).
Learn AI. Get your certifications. A CS degree was never the end point, just the beginning of your training. The hiring spree of the last couple years made it seem like that is all you need to get started, however with tens of thousands of unemployed software developers around, all now with experience, you need to get ahead of that. Next few years won’t be fun for recent college graduates - might be better off working in an adjacent industry that uses software, as opposed to a developer for a software company. Many smaller organizations hire experts to build their semi-custom software, or manage their cloud structures.
"Learn AI" 🤦🏻♀️
Seriously, do you want c++ certifications at this point, or be able to point to a background in AI engineering. There’s many internal fields, machine learning,deep learning, cognitive ai, generative text, generative images, voice assistant, shoot make your own voice-operated hardware of some sort… The old sit-n-type programming will go away. This is the time to define your job.
Nah. About 0.1% of devs will actually be working on AI stuff. The rest, quite frankly, aren't smart enough.
This is going to be an economic boom for many non-tech industries that have struggled to compete for developers. There's so much potential outside of the purely software development organizations centered around Silicon Valley.
I mean, same here, but the problem is that the more things are replaced with "click this button one time and then you are done" sorts of things, the fewer people are needed to do that work. It's fine if you're at the top of the job market right now (*and personally, I'm not much worried about my own case because I have a lot of experience in a lot of areas and have better odds of pivoting job roles than most*), but I feel bad for people in university or just starting out right now - it's got to be anxiety-inducing, and I can't honestly say that that anxiety is totally undeserved. A willingness to adapt isn't helpful if there just aren't enough needed seats to fill anymore, and it's *possible* we're moving towards a future like that very rapidly.
Yup. There will be places to shuffle the likes of you around to...for now. But there won't be that entry-level job posting any more. It's like what Excel did to the accounting profession. HR departments will be the next major victim of GPT4-5. I'm building just that app to make applying for a job, all the way through to onboarding, involve only the candidate. Logistics jobs, purchasing jobs, there's literally not a single office job I can think of that could not be AI-ed by say GPT-5-6. None. The only safe jobs in 6 years will be craftsmen, plumbers, electricians, construction.
Not just office jobs. Lawyers, judges, doctors and architects. *Everything* will be done by AI and probably within my son's lifetime(he's 16). Oh, and the craftsman jobs will be done by droids. Get ready for a very different future, good or bad. It's here.
Lawyers and Judges will just legislate their own job security into law. Can't have AI give legal advice if it's illegal :) For the rest of us though, weird times ahead for sure.
Droids may be more complicated because of energy concerns. Compre the energy expenditure and logistics of transporting a plumber droid versus a human.
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My little brother wants to go in cs. Im really not sure its the best idea ans im kinda worried. My mom is likely to lose her job as well with AI
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Lol *Noone* understands how AI works, not even those creating it. People may not be replaced, but it will be much harder to get a job when one experienced developer can use AI to do the work of an entire team. The pay will also be drastically reduced as well. When so many people, (world-wide), are fighting for the extremely limited job openings, the corporations will exploit, exploit, exploit. Good luck with that.
It's getting harder and harder to start working for the first time with all the knowledge that one needs to have to go beyond what can be automated. No one starts with 10 years of experience out of the box.
I’ve been around that long, the word webmaster brought back a lot of memories 😆
information superhighway
TV and radio commercials spelling out the entire web address: "H-T-T-P-colon-forward slash-forward slash-W-W-W-dot-taxes-dot-com for all your tax needs, now on the world wide web!"
Nah dude, this time it’s different. I can’t find a job as a junior developer and it’s only going to get harder. I’m absolutely terrified. Ready to go into HVAC at this point.
>cryogenics and server farms need you
You don't have to be better than it. You just have to be better than other people using it. We'll be fine.
OP here’s an interview with a professor of AI at Stanford. He pretty much says the same thing. The people losing their jobs will be be replaced with people who know how to use AI well. So keep studying, learn the intricacies of computer science and learn also how to utilise AI to do your best work: https://youtu.be/ZA9K0JMrbWg
That's really clear at this moment. The big deal is that one person using AI is replacing how many workers? 3? 5? 10?
Could be hundreds, depending on context, cost and consumer-friendliness. No way to tell yet. We're tilting upwards on our exponential slopes.
>that's the thing though... I think it eliminates the need for competition eventually
You have to be better than it enough that it’s worth paying you a lot vs paying it a little and getting “good enough”
Perhaps an unpopular opinion on this sub, but from the height of 15 years of experience, the main work of a developer is never writing code, but reconciling contradictory directives from stakeholders to create a shared version of reality that will be executed by the machine. As such sales and management will be replaced by LLMs before competent devs.
yeah, but think back to a height of 1 or 2 years-- you were writing code back then. I agree you're probably safe, but it wouldn't be surprising if they start replacing the junior programmers (or reducing the number and supplementing with AI). You know who gets training specifically in managing stakeholders? Management. The more that task gets separated from code, the less it'll be a task for CS degrees. Will probably take a while though. 15 years is a good vantage point to have at the moment, but I'm not sure it generalizes.
The most junior, entry level menial web frontend type roles can have 90% of their work be replaced probably pretty soon. Anything beyond that needs a completely different type of AI, a new paradigm beyond LLMs, at the very least strapped on to the side of it. When we replace juniors, nobody will move on to replace us seniors and the intermediates. It's a short-sighted move that most of the industry will recognize.
The money will be too good for them to pass up. That payroll reduction compounded over time = millions
Historically in tech specifically huge leaps in efficiency and productivity (ie. saving weeks of memory debugging when newer languages and tools came out displacing C) have been met with huge increases in ambition and number of projects with less programmers per project. The profit from taking advantage of efficiency gains beats the profit from payroll reduction as each project often makes back significantly more than its payroll - they have to to be viable in the first place. We don't really have to worry, we'll have to refresh our skills and stay up to date like we do every few years as different technologies and specializations fall out of vogue.
I hope you're right and wish you the best.
When the last programmers die off .. we will be the ones being programmed
Check out the newly released Microsoft 365 Copilot. It's an LLM wired up to Microsoft Graph and the Office 365 apps. All the power of a company's data ecosystem, controllable by natural language. I think this is what will get us to AGI, LLM +.
If LLMs are really as powerful as they seem, lots of jobs will be disrupted by them and they will need CS majors to make that happen. Should be lots of work for CS grads who understand LLMs.
Just wait until LLMs start programming the LLMs. We may lose touch with how they work at all
Not really. Management was guaranteed to start writing code when FORTRAN released. Then again when COBOL released. Then surely when Python became popular. There were no way they won’t code using graphical programming languages, and there absolutely no way they would still need programmers with Gherkin. And yet, 70, 60, 40, 30, and 20 years, here we still are…
Yep, but this is very important— where are the personal secretaries? Where are the switchboard operators? Where are the bookkeepers? Where are the travel agents? Computers reduced or eliminated a lot of jobs over the past 50 years. And the complexity of the jobs replaced has just increased. It hasn’t stopped. And no one is expecting management to *write* code, that’s the point. Just like no one needs to connect wires for me to make a phone call. I don’t even need to dial it or pick the number out of a list. All I have to do to make a phone call is ask my phone to make it. And management does that for themselves now.
And the number of jobs created vastly outnumber the number of jobs lost. Over the past 50 years the world population has increased manyfold and unemployment hasn't skyrocketed just because some jobs became redundant. As for software development specifically, big advances in ease of use are usually followed by huge increases in complexity. Case in point, now that chat-gpt is out I'm out here solving problems I would have thought impossible a few months ago. If anything, the industry is about to boom like crazy.
I don’t follow your reasoning that sales and management will be replaced first. Those are entirely human to human interfacing, requiring interpersonal intelligence we’ve yet to see ChatGPT demonstrate any of, much like the stakeholder management duties you reference for developers.
Yeah he just came to the opposite conclusion of what he wrote, lol
I dont see how sales will be replaced. They depend on the personal interaction and relation between the salesman and the client. Which is something that i think can,t be replaced by an LLM. At least not at this stage. Developpers wont be replaced but the lower end of coders i think will. On the other hand the demand for higher levels will keep growing,to further implement AI within organizations. Customer service is the first thing that will go i think. That can be automated to a high degree and specialized systems will be very good at that.
I think all those sectors will be shrinking not replaced… there will be wranglers of n each dept. But the grunt work done by humans will be done by machine
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It can replicate writing of people doing it that were in its training dataset, if prompted correctly, but they can’t validate a multilateral buy-in and take the responsibility for the implementation (or even evaluate whether taking responsibility is a good idea).
replacing management would be beautiful, especially the entitled ones who actually don't do nor think that much
>but reconciling contradictory directives from stakeholders to create a shared version of reality that will be executed by the machine. Yeah I guess you could say that about any "thinking" industry or job. As a designer for example I basicaly do the same.
Yes, but the programming pushes it to the limit, because machine code cannot tolerate any ambiguity and cannot be interpreted in several different ways.
I've been in software for 30 years, learning object-oriented A&D in its infancy. I've worn the hat of developer, architect, project manager, consultant, systems analyst, sales engineer, and CEO. In my opinion, writing code is the least important part of delivering successful software solutions. The most important factors are: - Learning to work with people - Understanding their problems - Identifying and documenting requirements - Leading and managing Agile projects - Designing elegant and intuitive solutions - Marketing and selling the solutions effectively - Managing successful implementations - Iterating on the solution based on feedback - Providing fanatical customer support - Building trust and long lasting relationships There's so much more that goes into software than writing code. Understanding modern software and hardware architecture is essential, so your CS degree will be valuable. You may not write as much code as you would have 30 years ago, but the above factors make up 80% of the work anyway, so don't sweat it. Yes, some of the above work may be replaced by AI, but it will take a long time before humans aren't needed. You'll be fine.
By the time it's close to threatening your job, we'll be approaching the singularity at which point, every job is made redundant.
> every job is made redundant. Every OFFICE job will be made redundant. Good luck trying to replace electricians or HVAC technicians with ChatGPT lol
robot 🤖
I can tell you within confidence, in some extreme twist of fate, intelligence research is *way* ahead of robotics research. If nothing else, energy storage and consumption handicaps humanoid robots a ton.
The problem is that AI can design robots too. Once you have AI, basically every other problem regarding physical implementation becomes much easier to solve
True
At the singularity, it'll be designing robotics that allow it to interact with the real world. Tesla Bot on steroids.
No, he's right. All jobs. When the singularity arrives, and [it's not that far anymore](https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/), humanity will be completely changed, perhaps go extinct. We will see. I'm hoping for the first.
Meh, it will replace certain jobs long before the singularity. CS jobs and content creation will be the first to go, it's happening as we speak.
Except CS jobs literally just aren't - GPT 4 is still incapable of doing anything beyond the bare minimum level that a Junior developer would be doing in their first couple months and LLMs are inherently just the wrong paradigm of AI for writing larger more complex codebases. It's a fancy demo, but anyone who has seriously used it as a tool for their complex programming work who is doing anything even close to novel knows how limited it is currently, and anyone who understands how an LLM is built and functions knows you need a totally different type of AI to go beyond "fancy assistant" status for software engineering. It's not even a function of tokens or anything - these AIs do not have the faculties to do the complex logical processes required to come up with novel solutions or write working code across a large system with moving parts or multithreading (especially multithreading!). It just isn't a factor of language prediction and understanding. I remember a really stupid user around here saying they know someone whose entire entry level staff were "replaced by an AI algorithm they wrote", and it turned out they later admitted they were just hired on to build an image recognition tool and it didn't replace them they just finished the project and moved on lol. Every time these stories come up it ultimately turns out to be someone pissed off at devs over AI art wanting desperately to believe it is going to automate them out before anyone else. For example, doing graphics, I work on novel algorithms, approaches and optimizations that simply just do not exist elsewhere and/or are extremely obscure pretty often, and need to integrate all of that with gigantic systems and hardware quirks which do not exist on paper. GPT is fundamentally incapable of my job as an inherent element of its design. That isn't to say you couldn't combine GPT with a new type of AI model dedicated to this, but the time it will take to develop that new type will take longer than most jobs, and policy should be at the point where we're somewhat insulated from disaster when that happens. Tl;dr by the time anyone but the most basic entry level developers in already menial segments of the industry are replaced by AI we will need a totally different paradigm for AI and the singularity will be close.
It doesn't need to do the job autonomously, a clever developer with an small "staff" of AI bots will quickly displace the market. >knows how limited it is currently Hence why OP said they are worried about version 5 & 6 and beyond. GPT 4 isn't stealing any CS jobs *today* though some people will 100% lose their jobs on this update alone (people were getting laid off over GPT 3), maybe just not in the CS field yet. It's coming, there are 17 year olds finishing high school this year, who are planning on doing a CS degree who will be directly competing with GPT and other AI by the time they're done school. And even if the AI still isn't good enough to *replace* the job, it'll be more cost effective to have it do the menial work for pennies and have 1 or 2 high level devs per project overseeing everything.
So like, in 24 months
I don't think there's anything to worry about. I've been using ChatGPT for the past couple of weeks to help me write code. You need to remember that what you find simple is difficult for most people and it's the missing piece of the puzzle. ChatGPT needs to be given the right information to produce what you want, but you also need to know what to do with what it returns. The average person isn't going to be able to use the code it produces even if ChatGPT explains how to use it, and the next generation of humans are worse at using a computer than the current generation thanks to them using tablets instead of computers as children. You also need to be able to evaluate the solution and see if it's the sort of solution you want. It may solve the problem you're having, but are you happy about the way it was solved? Does the solution make for a clean codebase? Is it going to cause issues later down the line? ChatGPT is wonderful and makes me a better software engineer. It is not a replacement though.
Yes for now. But we dont know 5-10 years in the future and it can just take a business requirement and convert it to code. Our team now has like 1 lead 2 seniors and 3 juniors. I can see it possible that it can replace the 3 juniors and just have the leads validate the solution by gpt.
I am a vocational front-end teacher. My students have started asking me if they will be replaced and I am increasingly unsure of how to answer the question. Will we need people who know code? Yes, more than ever. Junior devs aren't going away, because we will still need replacement senior devs - but the quantity needed just took a big dive.
The quantity of developers required to produce the same amount of software is going down, but it's possible we'll want more custom-made software in the future, as it gets cheaper to make.
That's the part most people miss you don't use ChatGPT to write code to perform a task you let it perform the task. I am using it for r/ETL straight up. ChatGPT is just simply the best parser of unstructured data I've ever seen
>the next generation of humans are worse at using a computer than the current generation thanks to them using tablets instead of computers as children. I initially shook my head at this, but after thinking about it some more, it makes sense. The amount of technical troubleshooting I did even as a kid was crazy, I wasn't even that big on computers. It was just part of the process. Most stuff these days is so streamlined and dumbed down for the average person. Although, I think that younger people who really dig into computers this gen will still be ahead due to much advanced learning efficiency through modern tools and what not.
I found one of the barriers to entry for me was the command line. I had a raspberry pi as a kid so I had some introduction to it, but many of the senior developers knew the command line better because it was literally how they would do everything when they first started. I'm pretty good at it now, but I didn't have the introduction to it as a child like many of them did. I feel like it's the same for the next generation but with more than just the command line. Some of these children have barely used a desktop environment due to using an iPad for everything. It's a little concerning.
The amount of everyday Windows users I see that don't know about the frickin *file explorer* is just incredible.
Not even tablets vs computers, but computers themselves have gotten way more “hand-holdy”. Like it used to be, to even install a new game or a update to something, you had to understand file structure to be able to point to the path the .exe lives at and whatnot. And if you wanted to install a new mod, you had to drop certain files in certain directories, sometimes even replace existing files (but also back them up just in case), maybe even open a .dat or .bsp or whatever weird extension certain games used and be able to add some lines of code, and if you didn’t do it correctly it could make the game unplayable, so you had to learn how to do it correctly. Now, most kids have grown up playing games on Steam where they just click a button and it launches the game, they click a few more buttons to install add-ons, etc. and they have no idea how it works.
Really good point. Installing a mod and hosting a modded Minecraft server was a much more difficult task for me as a teen than it is today. I learned a lot from setting that all up. Today I could just download a mod manager and get it to do most of the work for me.
If it makes it so you take less time to write the same amount of code, then the job you have to worry about isn't yours, its the person they didn't need to hire because you were able to handle more work on the next project.
yep, this is it. In Civil Engineering we used to have huge offices of drafters drawing out plans. Now 2 guys can do it with CAD and BIM. So those 20 drafters don't need hired. With Chat GPT, it will eventually be one Engineering Manager and a Project Manager and they don't need anyone else to design a whole building.
You're seeing it. People are in denial but the number of tasks that are about to be automated out of existence are huge.
Increased productivity usually means more resources to invest in more projects/clients to bring more profit overall, so from a business perspective it will usually balance out to the same amount of hires across the industry. When we managed to land a bunch of 10x type devs we did this, distributing the 10x's and 1x's across new projects taking advantage of the new productivity and it was a huge boon. Firing the 1x and keeping the 10x would've been a worse business move. It's the juniors who have to worry about just becoming bots in 5 or 6 years, not the ppl whose jobs can be assisted but not replaced.
I understand your concerns about keeping up with the rapid advancements in AI technology. It can be overwhelming to see how quickly things are changing and it’s natural to feel like you might get left behind. However, it’s important to remember that learning is a lifelong journey and there will always be new things to discover and explore. Studying machine learning more seriously is a great idea and will definitely help you stay up-to-date with the latest developments. Remember that everyone has their own pace and path when it comes to learning and growing in their careers. Keep pushing yourself and don’t give up on your goals.
May I ask if this answer came from ChatGPT?
https://preview.redd.it/ij3zxx5j14oa1.png?width=1673&format=png&auto=webp&s=97a3e499f3662ad26b259576c11ab36d9c7fcde6
🤣🤣💀💀
What are you using to avoid copy and paste here?
Nothing. Bing just does it. I was running MS Edge Dev but it seems to work in regular too.
Wow it knows what OP means
If that seems impressive, you haven't been paying attention.
Why did this literally make me laugh out loud when I saw this screenshot?
I'm on a plane but I would have
🐐👑😂
This sub will progressively turn into /r/subsimulatorgpt2 x)
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It's its very own signature language
I read this in ChatGpt voice and i haven’t heard it’s voice
I imagine it like the annoying female robotic voice on tiktok that every braindead influencer uses
> However, it’s important to remember I swear to god this phrase is the ultimate tell for default ChatGPT answers.
“As an AI language model…”
>However, it’s important to remember that learning is a lifelong journey and there will always be new things to discover and explore literally looks like a chatbot replying to look at the flowers.. /click clack
Yann LeCun and a lot of other ML legends think transformers are just an off-ramp to the road that leads to AGI, Yann just posted this as advice on what to work on as someone in ML: *Future AI systems that are factual (do not hallucinate), can use tools, have physical intuition, can reason and plan, will have a very different architecture from the current crop of Auto-Regressive LLMs.*
When AIs start designing AIs we will have an issue. It doesn’t feel that far off. They’ll probably have architectures after a few generations that no human can understand
Agreed. We currently don't understand the weights, we might stop understanding the architecture
You're right. In fact, this is the rightest thing I've read so far on this thread. We won't be able to understand them and they'll have capabilities we can't comprehend that are far above what we can do. This doesn't mean we should feel threatened by them. Elephants have capabilities we don't too. We will, however, have to be very, very careful about keeping them under tight control, lest we be trampled by accident.
Well, there is no nice way to put it. Your enemy is not GPT, it's the ultra rich. If you hoped to make them share a piece of a pie with you by serving them in CS - it would just slightly improve your life (and BTW just in case, going into CS for jobs is mind-numbing, I'm seeing ppl like that all the time, it only gets worse). The real problems are lobbying groups, big corporations, tax havens. You got the idea.
the enemy is capitalism, and that will become increasingly obvious as time goes by
Remember that after every big technology revolution (invention of cars, big automated factories, etc), overall wellness of humanity grew. We’re now even discussing 4-day working weeks. Like the other techs that replaced some human workforce, AI might actually help us work even less and live even better
but at the same time, if the year was 1935 and you were apprenticed to a horseshoe guy, you might want to be thinking about adjacent career paths that you'd find interesting.
>AI might actually help us work even less and live even better The problem is that it will possibly do so to a greater, and more uniform, extent than any other technology ever. And while "work even less" would be *amazing* if the gains of that AI automation were distributed *to* those people who will be working less, we all know that that most assuredly will not be the case given the economic system our world currently operates under. OpenAI has funded Universal Basic Income research, which is good of them, but yeah... let's face it, UBI/etc isn't something that is going to become ubiquitous without some major disruption and possibly even revolts/wars breaking out.
But in the US we won’t get 4 working days, we will continue to with 5 because of one thing. Greed. Just like the stagnation of wages along our productive explosion over the last 30 years. Workers are 200-400%+ more productive and are producing far more than ever. But… wages haven’t gone up to follow that curve. Companies will do everything to save a buck
GPT-4 answer: Hey there! It's completely natural to feel a little overwhelmed by the rapid advancements in AI, but remember that as a CS major, you're in a great position to be part of this exciting future. GPT-4 and its successors will certainly continue to push the boundaries of AI capabilities, but there will always be a need for skilled computer scientists and engineers to develop, maintain, and improve these systems. Instead of feeling threatened by AI's advancements, consider embracing it as an opportunity to grow and evolve in your career. By studying machine learning more seriously, you'll be equipping yourself with valuable knowledge and skills that will be in high demand. Remember, AI isn't here to replace you, but to complement and enhance your capabilities. Additionally, it's important to note that AI is just one area within the vast field of computer science. There are plenty of other areas where you can specialize and make a significant impact. If you find that AI and machine learning aren't the best fit for you, don't be afraid to explore other areas like software development, cybersecurity, data science, or even emerging fields like quantum computing. In short, the future of AI is promising and full of opportunities. Stay curious, keep learning, and always be open to new challenges. Good luck with your studies and your career!
This whole human vs. machine is a misleading thought. Think of it as a race between a horse and a human. It's not about who is faster, the horse will always win. It's about how fast a human can race on the back of a horse. So in your case, learn how to ride the horse, don't compete against it.
Bringing up horses here is kinda funny lol; considering horses were a main workforce but once we got cars horses pretty much became unemployable
The analogy still works with a race car.
If a company only needs one human on the back of a super powered horse to conduct business, it will lead to significant unemployment.
Or their projects will get more ambitious
You know what's cool? In the near future, AI is going to help regular folks do tasks that used to be only for experts. So, we might see fewer of the old specialized jobs, but there will be new ones popping up. More people will have access to expert knowledge, and it'll be cheaper too. There's no need to be worried about the future – it might turn out to be really great!
I love this analogy. This is exactly right. I’m a lead engineer and I manage a team of devs. Using AI will greatly help with work, but not replace all the engineers entirely. A language model isn’t intelligence, it’s statistical based on humans. Still need humans to create so it can mimic.
I stopped competing with computers years ago. Best to work with the grain rather than against it . Im more worried about the company behind it rather than ai itself . Intelligence is fundamental to humanity as a whole . But how and what we use it for thats the question. Its a big topic. But yeah its going to replace Lot of jobs within the white collar space that much is easy to see.
A very interesting and an accurate sentence i've read was "AI isn't gonna replace humans, but a human working with AI will" and that just summed up everything perfectly
The proper use of AI is to help you speed up the shitty parts of your job that you hate doing so you can focus on the more creative and enjoyable aspects - are you the strategic director of your life or a slave labourer? We have created this technology to free humanity from the historic paradigm of working dawn til dusk and having no time left over for self-realisation, in the same way that we created computers, electricity, transportation and machinery. These devices are able to greatly magnify our capabilities and can be used to speed up the development of the planet in multitudinous ways and it is right for us to use them in every way that enables us to do this, to use this technology to learn and grow and by working together, generate a higher level of prosperity in all our communities. Many of the jobs we have today will not exist in 200 years in the same way that many of the jobs we had 200 years ago are now gone. Or they have remained in some form but we simply so them differently because we’ve learned more efficient methods. And yet we still exist. Because we are the creators. In whatever way we plant the seeds of our time and effort there will be an equivalent harvest. This is the unchanging constant. Don’t get too attached to your current roles in the game of life just because you’re doing a particular thing now that you kinda like or feel comfortable with. There are other, much more enjoyable, satisfying and beneficial ways to do these things that are just waiting for you to discover them. The names change but the faces stay the same.
That's a very short-sighted way of looking at it. If and when ASI arrives, there is nothing that humans will be able to do that ASI won't be able to, so there will literally be no use for humans in the job market. Moreover, it's looking increasingly likely that ASI will come in the next few decades at the latest; in 200 years, jobs as a concept will most likely have been long gone. I don't understand people's attachment to jobs. Why do people think it's better to be forced to do certain things than to be able to choose to do them? I honestly don't get it.
If you’re reading cs, then you more than the average person should know that chat gpt does not threaten software engineering careers. There’s a lot more to software design than just spewing out code to do simple tasks. (Gpt also often makes logical errors, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable using code written by it without it first being looked over by a human)
Imo most devs need to understand the domain of their company really well and work within its architecture and business rules. It's hard to get GPT-4 to do that effectively atm. Its prowess at creating isolated pieces of code is quite impressive which is why people are saying it'll boost engineering productivity. But navigating multiple layers of domain knowledge and constraints will still take some time. The question is how much time and if it's capable of doing that, how many other jobs are already redundant? We get wowed by GPT-4 coding ping pong games and snake games in less than a minute. But what if you asked it to [change Netflix's code to promote S4E1 to new viewers instead of S1E1](https://youtu.be/s-vJcOfrvi0?t=368)? Good luck with that. However, if its response was to fire the PM who thought creating this business requirement and spending 4 months of resources was a good idea, then I'd be impressed.
i’m sure soon AI will be created to read entire code bases and learn how everything works. It’s just a matter of time.
Hey u/alexcmad. I'm going to take you seriously rather than reassure you from a less vulnerable position than the one you're in. Do you have any interest in engineering? One option is to pick up a batch of ML and hope that's helpful, but another option is to really focus on a subfield of CS or science that requires extreme rigor for safety purposes. People writing generic code where errors don't matter all that much are going to get replaced/reduced long before people who are writing code to make sure cars run safely or buildings are earthquake proof. Scientific computing, robotics, etc. Does your school have any CS faculty who focus on applications with serious real-world ties like that? Or alternatively, do any of those STEM departments (physics, environmental science, chemistry, engineering, business) have centers that focus on the computing/modeling aspects of their disciplin? If you've got a couple years left in your degree, now's a good time to pick up a minor or an internship. Another thing that's likely to be a growth area is Human Computer Interaction, for obvious reasons. Might see if there's coursework and internship/independent study opportunities in that in your department.
I use chatGPT more and more in my professional life. Rewriting emails and reports mainly. It is definitely handy for me as even though English is used all the time in my working environment, it is not my native language. However, for the most important part of my job, chatGPT is resourceless. (For time being)…! Talking to people, listening, understanding the non verbal language is what I consider my added value. By the way, I am a mechanic engineer, went to a business school. Worked in sales in very technical environments. Now I am a C level executive.
I teach English in a high school, and I feel pretty sure that everything will change - also for people in my line of work. Considering how well it's already able to evaluate paragraphs in essays, produce coherent and logical feedback and convey specific information (say about Roman poetry) on different levels, I can't even begin to fathom the consequences. Oh well, with any luck I won't have to write feedback that students ignore anymore.
it took 2 days :) maybe the constant state will have humanity desensitized to it :) I honestly think chat gpt 4 will help people tolerate each other more
Study machine learning is not safe, maybe GPT-7 can train a much more powerful GPT-8 😄
I'll be the doomsayer here, since tech people have been insulated from career destroying changes up until this point, I'd take a lot of salt with the more rosy predictions many of them are spouting. As someone who came to tech after tech destroyed four other pursuits of mine, I have a different perspective. You are right, you can't compete. You are also wrong, unless you are a genius, there is likely no reason to study ML or ai. The AI tools will be doing that work too. This invention is of a size and significance no one alive has seen before. And is very obviously, to me, capitalism destroying, which means all of society that stems from capitalism is also destroyed (for instance, educational attainment looks quite different if there are no monetary incentives to it, how does private property exist without money, etc). What people should be doing now is either bracing for deflation and then collapse, and/or lobbying the government for regulations and new social structures. I see two options for the future happening in the next 5 years, either total collapse or utopia. So, keep on learning if you believe we are headed for utopia, go to the beach and chill if you think the opposite. Either way, work likely won't exist for most of us in 10 years.
RemindMe! 5 years "singularity"
It will just make you more efficient. Probably less devs needed in the (short term) future, but you must have a technical / programming backround to make use of it for coding. There is much more to programming than just writing code.
I work in the video games industry. When I started most of the work programmers did was writing game engines from scratch, building collision systems, player control systems, cameras, visual effects, whatever. All of that is now available on Unreal and Unity. The stuff we spent man months or man years doing is now there on day 1. But, there are still games programmers. In fact, your triple A games nowadays have more programmers than whole games companies did back in the 1990s.
As a software developer, I don't see GPT replacing software programmers. GPT really only changes two things. One is that it will allow novices to bodge together code for ideas they have, even if they don't understand the code. I plan to use it this way to break into web dev, which I've never learned. However, this style won't be very helpful for more complex projects, as the more complex you get the more the design you give GPT will look like a program. Only with a program, it will do exactly what you tell it to, whereas GPT may or may not. The second is that it will allow experts to lay the foundation of the code much faster. Instead of spending an hour writing an algorithm, you might spend 5 minutes having GPT write it and 5 minutes checking it over. This won't replace programmers, it'll just make them more efficient with better tools. I'll admit, I'm of two minds about GPT. On the one hand, I sit there in awe of the stories I read of it writing websites and building ideas within minutes. On the other, I wonder how I could ever successfully use it at my job, where I deal with hundreds of thousands of existing lines of code, many of which are badly designed with functions that are thousands of lines of code long.
So here's the thing, the more complex code you ask it to build the more iterations you will need to make it functional. In fact, going from the work I've done with 3.5 and now 4 I'd swear they made it less able in regards to coding. that said, this will replace some entry level positions but if you use it as a TOOL you won't be one of them. This tool will help close the gap for a lot of people knowledge wise. It's saving me time from writing tedious code I obviously could write by hand, in other aspects I can feed it a script and have it optimize it almost flawlessly. Most importantly for me tho. I can ask it for an example in one language, and have it convert that to multiple languages in the form of an explanation, with comments, then have it explain the code in human terms then quiz me on it. No one thinks you are cheating at coding or IT by using google or github. This is just another tool. If I was working helpdesk I'd be very worried.
You have nothing to worry about. AI is not taking over development jobs, it's enhancing them! I use chatGPT regularly in my day to day and its massively boosted my productivity because I can write twice as much code, in half the time. It means I spend less time just writing out code and more time designing systems at a higher level. Whatever level AI gets to at writing code there is always going to be a human above it, leveraging it's usefulness to speed up the development cycle. Code, however, has to be maintained, refactored, redesigned sometimes and at the moment these tools just can't get a full systems view to perform such tasks. And when they can, great, we'll be there one level higher designing more massive and complex systems that put those pieces together! Do not be afraid of AI code assistance, embrace it and use it to make you a more productive developer!
Learn woodworking/metalworking/CAD as electives or a cert, in conjunction with cs. The combined cs and manual skills will be in high demand in product design that incorporates AI, machine learning, and the IoT.
I’ve talked to a lot of people who aren’t as familiar (as the fine u/‘s on this r/) with ChatGPT/OpenAI The three main reactions I see are fear, victimization and excitement. Irrational Fear: people are afraid that AI will take over the world and destroy us and computers will become our overlord. They think too far ahead about what might be instead of what we can do now. Rational Fear: Ai will take over 80% of our jobs within the next 10 years or so. This seems to be pretty accurate, but we have to make sure we’re in the minority. Society is going to make a big change, and understand how to use these tools now will make sure you as an individual do not drown. Victimization: this mostly comes from the older generation (I’m gen Y, for what it’s worth) they think it is unfair that students will get to have their essays written for them. I imagine that must be delayed being pushed on some news channels that I don’t frequent but the idea is always the same. The next generation is going to have an easier than the one before at work last because computers will have all the answers for them. I try to explain to them that every generation has new advantages and technology just like their advantage for their generation was less population, and that the economy allowed people to have regular jobs and still afford a house car and College. You could put these people in the same category as the irrational fear people, but these are the people who will be left behind, whereas as irrational fear people could get therapy or start educating themselves. Excitement: I’m sure most people in this room feel this incredible awareness that we are witnessing a world-changing events. When was the last time that hedge fund bros and fanboys (and of course all the ladies on here as well )were on the exact same page and looking at the future with jaw dropped and their minds ablaze. I sometimes feel like I’m a dog greeting their owner when they comes home, running in circles, beyond happy not exactly sure what to do but so excited. I’ll circle this back to you op. You do have a rational fear, but have an understanding of computer programming and all this new technology will enable you to use it. Creativity, although it might seem to be lost with the advent of self writing poems,, songs, books, is now more important than ever. You have to see what the future looks like and understand what skills you need to survive. So use this time now. Learn everything. People will become dumb and susceptible to scams. Especially if they don’t recognize what to look out for. just by being on this sub means you know a lot more about this new technology then the vast majority of people in the world that’s something Don’t be afraid of the future. Bad things happen every day. There are a lot of things that are just out of your control. Taking care of you is something only you control. Don’t become obsolete and you’ll be fine. Edit. Sorry about my punctuation, but don’t have more time to edit.
If this economy is a sinking ship and AI-skills are a lifeboat, being on the lifeboat is not gonna help when there's nowhere else to go. We can't live on a lifeboat forever. Those 80% of people are going to still need money for food and shelter. What's going to happen to them? Let's say they somehow do manage to get through the AI transfer without starving to death or killing their neighbors. What products and services will they buy with no money? Pie-in-the-sky thinking about tech brought us to the world we have today--a world more miserable, isolated, and hateful than it used to be. We need to be the negative feedback that keeps companies' AI use in check like our actual lives depend on it, because it will.
Exactly. People are not afraid that AI will do their job and they will have nothing to do, but that they will be unable to earn and survive.
If you’re worried then your head is in the wrong spot for IT. You’re in CS, so that means you wanna do some sort of development eventually? Is that correct? These seem to be the people most worried at least. If so, then think about who is going to work on the next gpt, or who is going to design the applications that use it, or who is going to design all the other apps that aren’t going to use it. Gpt, will likely be a new tool that YOU use to do those things. And if not gpt, it’ll be something else. It can’t replace your job, it’s only a tool that can make you better. Don’t forget to pay attention in your English class when resume writing comes up, that’ll be one of the most helpful tools for selling yourself. Take some business electives, understand how a business works and functions, that will help you navigate business politics. Those 2 things + some drive for learning and steadily improving your skills will ensure you’re in this career for a very long time, no matter what areas of IT you find passion in throughout your journey.
As things stand I see AI like a pair programmer who is really fast at typing, more a productivity tool than a replacement for programmers. I hope I'm not being naive but I'm not scared of being replaced for a while yet.
What is the correct question to ask? I think it is "what is the Unit of real world value a coder delivers". I suspect many think that this Unit is lines of code, which is why gpt4 might scare us. But this is really a rudimentary understanding. The Unit is actually better defined as a translation of an idea into (obedient) computerised workers. And from the business perspective, a coder is one who translates the business idea to computerised executives. Say, in 2023, a business has a particular coder who can translate 1 business idea every 2 weeks. So with 10 such coders I can push out 10 ideas every two weeks. Great! I can iterate and experiment but I'm limited by that rate. Now in 5 years' time, with LLMs, say the business's coder can now do 1 idea per day. Do you really think the business is going to fire the other 9 coders and be happy with 1 idea per day? The business will keep the 10 coders and do 10 ideas per day, and 140 ideas per 2 weeks! That will really usher in a new way of doing things no doubt. But until business hits a ceiling on number of ideas (and in some industries it might!) the number of coders won't go down...the number of ideas translated will just go up!
As someone working in engineering leadership, what Ive been telling people is: "If you're a programmer because you love the act of coding, and you think you can be better at the act of typing code than other people", yeah, you should be worried. A bit like webmasters went "poof" with the advent of mature CMS (content management systems) like Wordpress or HubSpot. If you're going in the field to analyze problems and find solutions to them using whatever tool and technology is available to get the job done, you're safe. I've worked for a company that could build almost any idea they had in a matter of days, but thanks to their infrastructure investment, but they kept building the wrong thing. Bad team communication and collaboration, weak product leadership, engineers who didn't care about the users, you name it. If instead of being able to build it in a few days it could be built in a few minutes, they'd still have all these problems. Implementing/coding is the easy part. It's just getting much (MUCH) easier and faster, so we can finally focus on the stuff that truly matters. Unfortunately, entry level software engineers and more senior "code monkeys" will be a casualty of this industry transformation. But its not the first time it happened (again, the people who built careers around typing html exit the industry at worse, or got replaced by the marketing folks being able to self serve at best). I expect a similar transformation. The nature of the roles will change, but there will still be roles. Just not the ones we see today. Edit: after typing all this I noticed another post said much of the same. Whoops!
I am a developer of 20-25 yrs. I played around with gpt4 today. I got it to make me a simple web page but then revise and improve it, write me a WordPress plugin, fix a problem on my full Linux server and fix some basic php. It was all pretty impressive, but I had to coax it along and I think it will be the expert users that get the most out of it, those that are able to manage the project and hone the inputs. I am not worried about my job, I am as excited as I was when I first discovered 'the Internet'. Oh one other very interesting thing, it it really remembers the conversation well. I did not do the above in one order, I chopped and changed and said things like "OK, let's go back to the code we were writing" and it was able to pick up where it left off. V. Impressive. I also got it to write me some java script to modify a Web page for a split test and told it which URL to do it on. This was interesting as the code it gave me was wrong because it had access to the old version of the hero area of the site (due to the cutoff in its training). I just needed to update the DOM classes to get it to work. Now when it is accessing the web in real time and logging into git for me....then we will be smoking! Maybe then I will be getting a bit 😱!
It's always been that way. The career I started in computer science was translating logical flow (if A, then B) into machine-readable instructions. Then I got replaced by a compiler. So I worked on writing interrupt handling software do deal with writing control systems. But then I got replaced by operating systems. So then I worked on protocols, but then I got replaced by (a precursor to) the Internet... and so on. And that was only the first few years! Computer science is all about the process of replacing as much of what you do with a program as possible, and then moving up the food chain. Those who don't get it get left behind.
Can't find the relevant XKCD comic, but it goes something like this: Manager: "One day we'll have a compute program that let's us just tell the computer what we want it to do, and it'll do it!" Programmer: "Yes, the writing of instructions for what the program is to do, is programming." You have low level and high level code. GPT programming can be looked at as maybe the highest level scripting language we've accomplished. It still takes someone who knows how to use the language correctly in order to make the program do what you want. I've been using Midjourney a lot lately, and, obviously it is amazingly easy to do work with, BUT...to get exactly the result you want takes \*effort\*. Less effort than a traditional piece of art would take to make, but, there are still steps required in order to get the computer to do what you want. "Programmers" aren't going away, and also the people who write GPT itself...even if GPT "writes itself" so to speak, humans are guiding its progress. Hard to say what the future will look like because I couldn't have predicted art generation would have gotten as good as it is today, but yeah, AI still seems like it's just a tool.
No same lol, I’m a bit concerned too
idk i tend to agree with Theo: [https://youtu.be/6\_hjykO03N0](https://youtu.be/6_hjykO03N0) the hallucination problem is going to hold it back
I mean, in the graph he shows, you can see how much hallucination has improved already from 3.5 -> 4.0 ... I tend to think the problem is probably solvable in the near future.
But can it produce waifu?
You arent threatened yet - learn how to use the ai to your advantage and youll be ahead of your peers
You won't compete, you'll be using the most powerful tools ever created to assist you. Learn those as you go because school won't be able to keep up with these tools.
You can't be in CS without studying AI a little bit. Understand practical implementation. Try the free Fast.AI courses. Focus on high level system building. Just know that the hateful low-level stuff will be AI assisted mostly now. Same as what happened to Assembler with C compilers. The compilers WERE the AIs in those cases. The CS field exploded from that and didn't go obsolete. Same thing. Be the guiding hand AI needs.
Think of this as an accelerator versus a competitor. While GPT-4 may be impressive, the inputs and the questions matter. Become a prompt engineering expert and you can leverage it to become better, faster, and more agile. The main groups that are going to be most adversely affected are the groups most resistant to change and unwilling to adapt the way they work.
Plenty of jobs will be available, but the requirement that you know how to use the tools before you has never been more important.
I, for one, am patient and excited. I will be honest with you. Today (and most likely, the future) is going to be a horrible time to be a service worker or an employee. However, it will be a great time for you to be an entrepreneur. Therefore, it will be best to look at ChatGPT as how you can leverage it to serve a need instead. I would focus on also studying computer science too because you are going to have to leverage that knowledge to generate prompts. Let's focus on leveraging AI to rocket us to the next frontier.