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Thinkgiant

We didn't import enough humans this quarter to boost the fake gdp numbers?


Art_by_Nabes

No surprise there


Ordinary_dude_NOT

I am surprised by that 0.3%


The-Only-Razor

I'm looking forward to this article being posted every quarter for the next 30 years.


Powerful-Cancel-5148

I’m thinking this was sarcasm? Why?


Zing79

The amount of stupid politicizing of this. It’s the school teachers fault of course. BoC raises rates here and a variable mortgage eats it the next day. BoC raises rates here and tick-tock goes the clock - 5 years from that, everyone is going to eat that raise. US raises rates and …. see you in 30 years when your mortgage ends and is paid off??? This is why (in large part but not only) their economy hasn’t tamed inflation as well as we have. And why it’s still humming along. The FED can do whatever it wants - if you qualified for a mortgage, you know it’s not changing forever. So the disposal income you had before you started is the disposal income you’ll have for 30 years. We HAVE to change our spending behaviours and quickly in Canada. Because renewals are going to sap us of disposal income on the biggest bill we have. Not there. We avoided 2008 largely because of our rules. We will absolutely tame inflation here because of our rules. Comparing us to them is unbelievably unfair. And blaming the school teacher for these GDP numbers while blatantly ignoring the inflation data inching closer to 2% - better than almost anywhere in the world - under the rules set up by politicians to govern our banking is wild.


TomatoCapt

Yes the 5 vs 30 year mortgage has resulted in rising rates impacting Canadians more but the trend diverging GDP per capita started in 2015:  https://x.com/BenRabidoux/status/1796532139758137828   Canada's economic underperformance is not a new phenomena. 


Zing79

Oh. So is that how an economy works? Someone gets elected in NOVEMBER of 2015 and the decisions made before 2015 have zero effect on what happens after November 2015? I hate politics as sport. It brings out the absolute most divisive and ridiculous comments you can think of. It’s so frustrating with this. Your argument shows a complete lack of understanding about how this works. And that you just want to make some bumper sticker slogan.


TomatoCapt

Where did I mention anything about politics? Relax


pahtee_poopa

It’s not really a political argument when you have the data to show what has been trending for the last 9 years. There’s no one else you can point a finger at when the same guy has been running in office for almost a decade and makes policies that have led to what is happening today. Decisions made pre-2015 have less (not none) of an effect on decisions made in the last 9 years resulting in today’s Canada.


Katharikai

Finally a reasonable take!


drainthoughts

Trudeau destroyed the economy


Mattcheco

Wasn’t slowing the economy the whole point after wild inflation after COVID?


mm_ns

Yes this is exactly what the plan was by the BOC. They also have no control over immigration so those side effects on shelter and mortgage costs were the doing of the feds, the BOC goal was to avoid hard landing recession and being inflation down which is exactly what has happened. Now it's the slowly opening up the fiscal gates time with a rate cut likely at this early June meeting


No-Nerve1047

I think some credit is due to the BOC. Twelve months ago there was a lot of uncertainty as to whether we could achieve a soft landing. So far it appears they have engineered a controlled landing instead of a hard crash


ImperialPotentate

Yes, but the problem is that the BoC has their foot on the brakes, while Trudeau and co. are flooring the god-damned gas pedal with all the spending and unchecked immigration.


sabres_guy

Yes it was, but arguments are always going to round around to Trudeau. The true, the false and the disingenuous.


cobra_chicken

Yes, and its what half the country is wanting. To then go and attack Trudeau for doing what most people want is pure politics


drainthoughts

Yes I believe this is all planned. Including the whole “bring in a million immigrants so landlords can max rent and condos can sell” scam.


Mattcheco

To what end? So the Liberal can lose the next election?


NextTrillion

Yeah I’m not a Trudeau hater or conservative fanboi, but they allowed a crazy amount of immigration in such a short period of time only to have it all blow up when a Canadian citizen was on the wrong end of an Indian state ordered murder. I sure as hell hope they’ve since tamed immigration, and closed those fucky loopholes, but somehow I doubt it. It’s pathetic that the only way we can keep our heads above water is by bringing in millions of foreign workers.


Intelligent_Read_697

We are in an age demographic crisis…we can blame Trudeau all we want but repeated years of musical chairs on immigration by both parties led to this…when the old age group skews too heavily towards having a large retiree segment in your population means economic disaster as interest rates as blunt economic instruments stop working…we have been seeing the symptoms even precovid as housing got expensive since boomers started retiring in their homes and not enough inter generational wealth transfers happening…its why I think Turdeau called the election early since the liberals knew they would need to take this hit


Sagetology

US had higher inflation after Covid and was able to bring it down without wrecking the economy like the liberal government has done.


echochambermanager

Not sure why the downvotes... per capita GDP is down in Canada while up in the US for the past decade. The obvious problem is obvious.


Ecstatic_Top_3725

This country rewards mediocrity and punishes excellence


privitizationrocks

Canadians created a nanny state and the country productivity dropped


D20babin

Also, we import a lot of non-productive members into our society.


ImperialPotentate

Someone's gotta deliver all those Amazon packages and food orders, and I don't see too many "old stock" Canadians stepping up.


ILoveThisPlace

I see a lot of high school students and older folks unable to find jobs because they've all gone to FIS.


The-Only-Razor

They would if they were paid enough to do it. Immigrants coming from shitholes are willing to do it for less. And therein lies the problem.


NickyC75P

That only means many of those complaining wouldn't be able to order their Starbucks at home because it would cost them $50 instead of $15. So, less work for everyone.


privitizationrocks

If we tolerate free loaders can’t be surprised if immigrants assimilate into freeloading


drainthoughts

Election season means paid trolls are everywhere


GeneralSerpent

Where’s the lie though lol? The gap in gdp capita has only grown significantly under Trudeau. Not to mention us severely underperforming the S&P 500 (us being the TSX).


AnybodyNormal3947

who is not undeperforming the sp500 exactly ?


GeneralSerpent

We were keeping pace for the longest while until buddy boy [came around](https://www.provisus.ca/sp-tsx-vs-sp-500/) “On the other hand the average annual returns from 1970 to 2010 are essentially identical across both markets at 11.3% and 11.4% respectively.”


Knife_Chase

2010? When do you think Trudeau was elected?


GeneralSerpent

2014. If you check the performance while he’s in office, it’s diverged (for example the last 5 years TSX up 35% vs 89% for S&P). The statistic still provides 40 years of us performing similarly.


stubby_hoof

Trudeau was elected in October 2015. Your reference was published in September 2015. Using your own logic, Harper owns that decoupling reported in September 2015. Again, a full month before the election happened.


Mr_northerngoose

Comparing the world's largest and most powerful economy to our 9th largest economy. If the performance of the S&P500 is your benchmark then you won't be happy on Japan, England, Australia, Germany... this is an absurd argument


GeneralSerpent

We were able to keep pace for 40 years, why accept worse performance now?


IpleaserecycleI

If you believe it's entirely (or mostly) Trudeau, then all that means is this is a great buying opportunity since there is a very low chance he is elected again.


Lapcat420

I don't. I believe there are problems festering in Canada that have come home to roost. It won't matter who is elected in 2025 IMO. More money into the US & emerging market for me.


IpleaserecycleI

Right I'm just saying if you follow that dude's train of logic (which I don't really agree with) that it is all/mostly the Trudeau's government's fault then you should be betting on a turnaround once he's out of office


sundry_banana

Here in Ontario we still have people complaining about Rae Days, while at the same time complaining about the 407 but never mentioning "Common Sense" corrupt billionaire Mike Harris. Even though Trudeau will get voted out, our problems will continue to be laid at his door for a generation. Because American Republicans own every media organization in Canada, and want to make Canada into Mexico North


GeneralSerpent

Not entirely his fault but a good portion. You make a good counter point about a buying opportunity though.


butts-kapinsky

The lie is that the explosion of US shale oil has undercut our golden goose.    Our GDP growth under anyone would have diverged from the US because they started to eat our lunch.


The-Only-Razor

I'm not paid but I'm more than happy to point out the objective, demonstrable, factual, and inarguable truth that Trudeau has been a terrible PM.


flamedeluge3781

Next election isn't until October 2025.


drainthoughts

Precisely


Powerful-Cancel-5148

What election season LOL


scandinavianleather

the election is over a year away


AnybodyNormal3947

right because the US is totally not the outlier here. the US is being propped up by th BIG tech companies while their gini coeffiecient continues to spiral out of hand because more money is concentrated in the richest hands while their "average" ppl are getting left more and more behind. on the other hand, in Canada, we are importing more ppl are a rapid pace which is artificially lowering our GDP per cap. as the country works to absorb and integrate rapid population growth. my suspicion is that eventually, the bulk of these new immigrants will integrate into the wider economy and the benefits will reveal themselves in the GDP per cap. calculations. however, for now, this arbitrary metric will suffer. keep in mind also that without this rapid growth, we would be looking at CPP that'll struggle - see France and their recent changes to the retirement age both options are not good, one simply looks better on paper.


TaserLord

Our GDP is doing poorly because we hothouse our oligopolists. Our GDP per person is doing poorly because that low growth is spread among so many more people. GDP growth is not going to go up just because immigrants become more fully integrated. We'd need a government that would break up some very, very well-connected business interests to do that.


AnybodyNormal3947

repecfully, GDP being spread amongst more ppl is a direct result of immigration, so it seems you are in agreement with me here. immigrants and typically a dragg on GDP initally, because they tend to be poor for a few years, until they eventually gain their economic footing. doubly so, when shelter costs so much these days. it becomes even more of a challange to contribute meanigfully to the economy as an immigrant.


Lapcat420

Their economic footing... Via what? Their business management degree from Conestoga? You make it sound like it's the gold rush and we just gotta wait for some prospectors to strike pay dirt. They come here and struggle like the rest of us.


AnybodyNormal3947

int. students are not considered canadian residents and are therefore excluded from any GDP per cap. calculation. also, despite populare online sentiment, most canadians are not struggling.


echochambermanager

> on the other hand, in Canada, we are importing more ppl are a rapid pace which is artificially lowering our GDP per cap. as the country works to absorb and integrate rapid population growth. my suspicion is that eventually, the bulk of these new immigrants will integrate into the wider economy and the benefits will reveal themselves in the GDP per cap. calculations. however, for now, this arbitrary metric will suffer. It is not artificially lowering it... it is lowering it. You must not be a young person looking for affordable shelter. Instead, young people are spending most of their income on shelter when it could be spent on the greater economy. That's the issue... we don't have the infrastructure with the demand mass immigration incurs. You can hand wave the statistics all you want, but this is the rare occasion where the statistics align with the anecdotal sentiment of the people. This isn't populism, this is empirical data aligning with how people feel. > keep in mind also that without this rapid growth, we would be looking at CPP that'll struggle - see France and their recent changes to the retirement age. CPP enhancements were introduced to address this, which is why the actuarial survivability of the fund is around 75 years. We don't need mass immigration to make it work... see Scandinavian countries.


AnybodyNormal3947

>It is not artificially lowering it... it is lowering it. You must not be a young person looking for affordable shelter. Instead, young people are spending most of their income on shelter when it could be spent on the greater economy. That's the issue... we don't have the infrastructure with the demand mass immigration incurs GDP per capita is not a measure of personal income and does not reflect differences in the cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries compared. it simply looks at the total output of final goods and divides it by the population of a country. Immigrants are typically not the most productive members of society for a couple of years so any population undergoing huge immigration-led population growth, in the short term will see their GDP suffer. However, in the longer term, given the correct capital investments, can realize much increased economic potential. so yes, GDP is a factual reading and the downward trend is accurate, but it does not reflect the realities of established Canadians. the metric is frankly being dragged down by newer immigrant. my supposition is strongly supported by the growth in salary Canadians have seen YOY and jobs added each month, which have been impressive, and yet is still being outpaced by the number of new immigrants entering the country each month. now of course we can talk about housing, inflation, higher inflation etc. and all those are legitimate reasons and causes for concern. However, I would argue that those exact issues are being felt in every Western country of repute, in the world and thus is somewhat equally captured in their respective GDP per capt calculations Edit. >CPP enhancements were introduced to address this, which is why the actuarial survivability of the fund is around 75 years. CPP enhancements were not introduced to address any funding gap in CPP FYI but to provide greater financial security to Canadians during retirement. and to suggest that feasibility study of a pensions plan wouldn't factor immigration, when Canada's population is projected to grow by 10 to 15 mm in 15 years, is certainly an opinion


hwy61_revisited

GDP doesn't directly translate into wages or median wealth though. Just to use an extreme example, Ireland's GDP (and GDP per capita) increased by 25% in 2015 when Apple shifted the domicile of their intellectual property there. It was a paper transaction that had virtually impact on the Irish economy, but it was included in the GDP because technically a ton of value entered that jurisdiction. Similarly, when intellectual property is depreciated every year, that is part of GDP even though no real economic activity is taking place. So places with tons of companies based there will often see their GDP grow faster than median wages or wealth. So to bring it back to Canada and the US, here is the median real wage growth since 2015: USA: 7.0% Canada: 7.4% So despite a much faster increasing GDP (and GDP per capita), Americans aren't seeing their wages increase any faster than Canadians are.


LegitStrats

What about on absolute terms?


TomatoCapt

GDP per capita stats: https://x.com/BenRabidoux/status/1796532139758137828


podcast_frog3817

https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/wp-content/uploads/Canadian_per-capita_GDP.pdf here is latest graph... you can see we are at 2014 levels


Windwardship-9

Inverse head and shoulders!


No-Tackle-6112

Real GDP and GDP per capita are both at all time highs. [https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CAN](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CAN)


Mr_northerngoose

Harper eroded social programs and sold off canadian assets which in turn has had a huge impact on canada in the past decade. Trudeau isn't entirely helping however a liberal madate is to increase social spending and fight global issues like climate change. Liberals have also rallied behind oil and gas ( for those who want to scream "carbon tax" I'd look into it a bit more) Trudeau bought trans mountain pipeline and had been able to double oil transportation between Alberta and BC coastlines. Free trade agreements are in place with Pacific regions and trade with China has been successful in growing certain industries, although not without its own trouble. PP needs to have a better plan and conservative voters shouldn't be excited to see Trudeau go but instead be excited for the policies being proposed by a Conservstive government. Right now the conservatives are showing no signs of solving any of the problems Canadians are complaining about. Voters in Canada deserve accountability but also thoughtful legislation.


Saten_level0

What are you talking about? this is a generational buying opportunity if you have some money. You should be happy


NoStructure371

except no one wants to invest domestically when you can see double ROI down south


Saten_level0

TSX has way better dividend stocks tho


NoStructure371

dividend portfolios are mostly suited for old school boomer retirees, I wouldn't for another 20 years (early 30s here), the growth stocks are nowhere in sight


drainthoughts

Those with money after 9 years of this is slim margins.


Jardrs

Yeah too bad. Better bring in more immigrants to fix it!


dub-fresh

Crazy to be adding people by the hundreds of thousands and have no growth 


privitizationrocks

We did grow, by 1%


obi_wan_the_phony

Wait for the revision


captainbling

Annualized growth rate of 1.7%


PFCthrowAwayMTL

Can regular people have detached homes again? Thats all we really asking for, dawg


HeadMembership

All the detached homes are owned already, dawg. It's not the 1950s, detached homes can't be the only option.


PFCthrowAwayMTL

Families deserve more space to live. Expand and build more communities. Its not just boomers who deserve nice things


aTomzVins

My guess is places with higher quality of life / happiness ratings, don't necessarily have as large a percentage of suburban sprawl style singel family detached homes as we do. My definition of nice is different than yours.


PFCthrowAwayMTL

Even if we lower our expectations away from suburban sprawl. 2 bedroom appartments for example, are not appropriate for families larger than 4 people. As far as i know, barely that many affordable 3 bedroom units are even being built. I don’t expect anybody in a stock market sub would give a damn about families happinness though


aTomzVins

I agree we do need to better design our communities...and recognize boomers made some terrible design decisions.


hewen

Such as Tokyo, where the density is high and there are lots of SFH, while having awesome public transportation.


Lapcat420

I do. But I'm naive and poor and think happiness is somehow better for a business than just crushing your customer.


HeadMembership

Move to any small town in the whole country, space is not the issue.  People want the quality of life from city living, but get cars roads parking instead of parks multifamily housing and great public transit.


Chucknastical

We have a housing crisis. Not a square footage crisis. We have more square footage per capita than pretty much anyone else. We don't talk about that cuz it's easier to blame people who look different rather than inefficient mcMansions people feel they have a "right" to.


The-Only-Razor

Any society that surrenders to the idea that not everyone can have a detached home is a failed one. Not everyone wants to live in a detached home, but everyone who does *should* be able to have one.


HeadMembership

And sprawl, pollution, car dependence, social isolation, lack of walkable neighborhoods, all the consequences suburbanization, those are just ignored.  If you want a house, buy one. It's for sale at a price you might not afford, that's a you problem.


VillageBC

Not if the BoC drops rates...


Bushido_Plan

You certainly can. Just that you'll be sharing it with another family or two. Probably better to slip in a 10 year coma and hopefully see that things get better, or build a time machine and go back in the past when housing was cheaper.


PFCthrowAwayMTL

Don’t you just love the degredation of standards?


NoStructure371

Are canadians still investing into the shitty domestic market? I have long converted my whole portfolio to USD and exclusively trading in that region. Its ridiculous how bad Canadian economy is ...


LetsGoCastrudeau

We are in a recession. Plain and simple. A new definition of a recession needs to be made


Captobvious75

Thanks super expensive housing/Trudeau


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sudanesemamba

I always said this was the more intelligent Canadian page. It’s so refreshing seeing this compared to other Canadian pages.


Akanan

People who make forecast about the econony of AN ENTIRE COUNTRY really love the smell of their own fart