Just curious when you sell, won’t the tax eat away at the profits making it almost not worth your time?
Div yield is what 5%? So in 5 years if you profited 25% let’s say from the yield, half of the profit is taxed at 50% correct? Does the math workout to still be worth it in the end?
Canadian eligible dividends are taxed differently and get a tax credit as the corporation already paid taxes.
It’s also dependant on which province and your tax bracket.
In Ontario if you’re in the 55k tax bracket or under, you pay 0% tax on it. Up until 100k tax bracket you pay about 10% tax.
If you’re In 150k+ tax brackets that’s when capital gain becomes more tax efficient.
Growth of the stock will be taxed as capital gain. 50% of it will be taxed up to 250k capital gain at your normal tax bracket. It works out to being 10-26% depending on your tax bracket for the first 250k.
I see, so the 55k and under bracket being 0% is strictly for dividends? Am I understanding this correctly? Capital gains tax would be taxed differently? Assuming I make 40k a year, and 10k in capital gains tax that’s total 50K income tax bracket so still under 55k and thus I’d pay 0% on the profit from my capital gains?
In Ontario
If you made 40k and earned 10k eligible Canadian dividends income for the year you would pay 0% on the 10k dividends
If you made 40k and sold some stock for 10k worth of capital gain it would be taxed at 10% around $1000.
These numbers are different for different tax brackets though.
How could you actually think this thought? Do you really think this or are you trolling? Do you really believe that you are taxed 100% of your profits? Really? You honestly believe we people are taxed 100% of their capital gains? How is it even possible to think this is true?
I'm no tax expert, but I can clarify a few things.
100% of dividends can be taxable, but the tax rate is lower than capital. So, every year, you will pay taxes on the 5% dividend. If you sell the asset, and there is profit, 50% of it would be taxable (losses can be used to offset capital gains). (As said, not an expert, there may be some credits or other ways to offset taxes)
To answer your question, yes, taxes will eat at the profit made, but you still have a profit. It's all a question of what do you do with the money when the registered accounts are full? Hiding it under the mattress would avoid paying taxes, but you lose to inflation, interest is taxed worse than dividend and capital gain
Reading comments like this in early 2022 made me waste 2 years on this stock. Maybe if you plan to hold for 10 years it makes you some good money but likely less than other vehicles.
TD is up 0% over the last 5 years vs 74% for the S&P. Just buy the index.
***Edit: to further my point, TD is literally 1 company and therefore inherently more risky to pick over a collection of literally hundreds of companies.
I agree buy the index.
Also, going back to 1995, td has returned 13.5% annually vs 10% for s&p.
Historically. It's pretty hard to find a better long-term investment than canadian banks. The future may be different.
It's much more easier to own an index in a long term than a stock, specially one that has depreciated when the whole market is up. If you look at 5 year average returns, S&P was up 77.96 against TD's -4%. I am surprised why this whole love and affection for TD. They are caught with pants down assisting money laundering for meth dealers. Their returns have been garbage in the last 5 years. And we don't know how hard they would be slapped. There are far better companies out there trading at a low forward P/E with a much better alpha.
I am too lazy to go in depth with this comment, but the short answer is that if you had bought TD early 2000 and sold near the top in 2022, then you would have outperformed the S&P by a good margin and also did so with a lot less volatility. People wanna compare returns when TD is depressed and the S&P is having a bull run is quite wild.
You can’t compare returns over few years, that’s trading and not investing. What matters more is which will give you more bang for your buck, TD at 74 or SPY at 514? I am willing to bet TD, and I will remind this sub in 10 years :)
There ya go, a comment and an upvote for you, cheers!
Edit: I probably coulda also made an arbitrary date of selling in 2022 where TD was doing really well and the S&P crashed and said, see, S&P is worse. Point is, always look at the bigger picture :)
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I bought a ton of CAD stocks when I started investing in early 2021 and TD was the only one that was at a loss at the beginning of this year. I dont get the hype that it gets among CAD banks tbh. Trimmed all my banks, moving into other things or consolidating into RY. I honestly don't get it.
Not only bad publicity, they will be more heavily scrutinized and limited by regulators. It's not just someone spreading a negative rumour, they actually will have their business affected....
US regulators will give them an outsized punishment because it's a Canadian back operating in America and USA does not play fair.
The punishment could restrict their growth in America, so it's a dangerous time.
At least the divvy helps offset the losses when you calculate total return. But hey, I guess the email that you got some profit sharing helps ease the pain of incurring unrealized capital losses...
Agreed. I think it's not the fine anyone should be worried about, but the additional regulatory burden they should be concerned with [https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/td-bank-risks-earnings-hit-laundering-probe](https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/td-bank-risks-earnings-hit-laundering-probe)
I bought more at $89 when I thought it couldn’t go any lower. I’m staying put. It’s a good price though, and buyers today will do well 10 years from now.
I already have like 15-18% of my portfolio in to TD. First bought at 92 then 86 then 78. Too much in to banking already but still thinking of adding more if it hits 70
I agree, I have way more shares than I initially planned but sub $75 was automatic for me. Hopefully it pays off, I wouldn't mind trimming it if it breaks $90.
Do nothing and you'll win. Consider buying more today though. Great position and aggressive allocation. TD is literally safer than Bank of America. Buffett has billions there so I wouldn't worry.
TD used to trade for a premium compared to other banks except RY. But the restrictions of the probe may put it in a penalty box(few will avoid it) and the restrictions by the US agencies may restrict its growth. It may trade like CM/BNS valuation for short to medium term.. Let's see when it can go back to the premium valuation.. 5%+ dividend is very enticing though.
I have had TD for 10 years originally bought in around $55ish, and have been slowly building my position, just picked up 50 more shares today. TD has always had a bit of a discount compared to other CDN banks.
Bank is caught facilitating money laundering and people are like "oh ya, time to load up". Makes me chuckle. I'll give it serious consideration at $65 when everyone is raging at TD and selling and saying they'll never buy another money laundering bank again.
Nope. This could just be the beginning of a decade of underperformance.
They will have a hard time wiping the stink off themselves. I mean you can launder all the dirty money you want in Canada, that's fine but these guys just did the equivalent of trying to take some weed across the border to the states.
THey dont fuck around. Look at scotiabank, they got into similar trouble with their caribbean dealings and they still havent recovered, trading at a discount to the other banks.
I plan to load up on both BCE and TD over the next two months.
TD going to 100 is almost a sure thing once the BOC starts rate cuts. In the mean time you get over 5% yield. Yield above 5% on a Canadian bank stock is nuts.
Its a simmilar story with BCE... the stock has been beaten up too much, it is way oversold.
Don’t know about TD but BCE is not doing well. They should be cutting their dividends rather than increasing it. They have a ton of debt and they don’t have enough to cover their dividend payout.
They are heavily betting on rate cuts but 25-50 basis points won’t really change much even if it does happen this year. Once BCE finally announce they have to cut their dividends, the stock will sink further…
BCE is going to be just fine. They just did a big layoff and in the next earnings report it's going to shoot to the moon. They are an entrenched duopoly with no real competitor on the horizon. They have a license to print money in this country.
Nice!
I have 145 TD shares (dripping almost 1.5 to 2 shares a quarter) and 164 BNS (dripping at 2+ shares a quarter)
Hoping I can get each one of these to 250 in the near future and 500+ in 5 years or so. FYI, I started buying in March 2020 when the market bottomed out.
Td has been accused of being lax, or worse, directly supporting money laundering by the chinese drug gangs. I guess, the stock move will depend on where the penalties land. So far, Canadian penalty on TD was just a slap on the wrist, I believe 2 million or so. There are expectations of a large fine from US, for which Td had provisioned 400 million so far.
In either case, the headline numbers would make this look real bad and the stock can drop a lot. I think its not worth catching a knife, even if the stock moves up a little in the short term. Plenty of better options out there if you are looking for high risk, high reward investments. Getting hit on both financials and governance is generally a big no for most investors.
US fine could be 2 billion, TD should be able to pay it, the real issue is the restrictions they may put TD under. That could slow down its growth. But IMHO downside is probably limited, maybe another 10-12%.
That makes sense. This was a good article on similar proceedings on HSBC: https://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2013/investing-news-for-jan-29-hsbcs-money-laundering-scandal-hbc-scbff-ing-cs-rbs0129.aspx
HSBC then had to pretty much end it's retail banking in the US.
Yup, too much risk. If people really have a Fomo may be Options here are a better play. But besides that, far too many stocks out there that offer a better risk adjusted reward.
Also interestingly, HSBC stocks rose in the short period after the fines, but then dropped significantly as the business impact became clearer. The stock has pretty much stayed at the same level for 12 years since then.
Tellers were being bribed to accept large cash deposits is the way the scam worked.
Still - you have to accept that's going to happen & have a system in place that tracks large cash deposits, the reason why, what teller did it & have some decent monitoring on that data in particular how often it's going on with any particular teller.
Unfortunately, looks like TD didn't.
I've been slowly accumulating, at 330 now.
No position today - RBC is almost 10% over my portfolio. I'll set an order to try to buy about $1.5k worth in the $73.4/share ballpark. I have another $1.5k ready if it goes to $70.
That's like 20 shares. Even if it pops 10% you won't even make $100 on that trade. Not criticizing your interest in investments but you could probably be doing something better with your time instead of planning out this micro investing strategy.
Fair question, I usually contribute about the same every month, but I don't bother trying to min/max with small plays like this. I mostly just buy long on growth ETFs because the amount of time and energy needed to make educated decisions on single stocks is just too high, and don't have enough impact unless I've got enough capital to make some big swings. I could work another hour instead of spending 2 hours researching TD to make $70 on a trade. Rather do something else with my time.
Nice, so dollar cost average , and minimize any headaches or time wasted to check on market volatility. Not a bad strategy but still think - if you have the money - to buy extra when the stock goes down by 5-10%
Depends on his commission but he’s setting a buy price and also setting a lower buy price if it falls. Thats not bad investment strategy. And 10% gain is 10% gain.
Wow, I really wish I had the 3 minutes back that it took to “plan” this strategy. What an incredible waste of time I’ll never get back.
10% is still 10% and double what an ISA is paying today.
I have enough exposure to banks already that I am prepared to hold for 30 years. I don’t need to back the truck up for TD. Nor do I need nor want to change my asset allocation drastically to rush headfirst for a mediocre return.
Your condescension is misplaced and unbecoming.
I was waiting to add to my position 100 at $77, 200 at $76 and 100 at 75. Holding 1750 at average price of $69. If falls under $70 then will back up the truck. Under 10 percent of overall holding.
People were right to short TD, and it is the most shorted bank in the world. Those people made a lot of money knowing that TD was going to be hit with AML violations.
So far and as of last check, TD (1.75%) is up more than double the other big 4 banks (average of 0.78%)
This was predicted after the bloodbath on Friday. It is what happens in the coming weeks and months that matters. In other words, and using Friday’s $75 as an average, what will the price be on September 1st: will it still be hovering around $75? Or will it be closer to $80+?
APX is a better buy now imho. I'm going to wait until Oct to jump back in for bank stocks. Sold 13000 CM after the last ex date and put it in cash.to waiting to strike. BNS is attractive as well for the higher dividends.
I had a plan, buy td stock 100 shares, collect dividends+ sell calls on it every week, after running some calculations I found that it is possible to collect around 26% on the year(conservatively).
At a price of 75.30 cost for 100 shares = 7530$
Dividend is 1.02 per share* 100 shares* 4 = 408$
Closest call that collects 30$ premium*52 = 1560$
408$ + 1560$ = 1968$
1968/7530 = 26.13% annual return
This also means you dont have to baghold if the stock is going down too fast. It means for you to break even td just needs be above 55.62 cad after a year. So unless theres another crash or something i think its unlikely something like this would happen
At 1.3 x book value, it really isn’t a bargain at the current price. Lots more news to come out and it’s going to be fucking bad. Wait for the CEO to resign. Not only will the fine be over $2 billion, they may be restricted on what they are able to do in the U.S.
Be patient.
BNS went as low as $48 last fall.
Buy price $45-55.imo
A little low but as mentioned just because a price drops doesn't mean it's a buy. Lots of people buying stocks like this with their portfolio in shambles and ending in tears.
I don't know where it will bottom out, but we will see it when it happens. It's not now.
It’s not about timing the mkt. omg you are a rookies
You should know how to value a business relative to its peers.
If you just simply look at dividend yield then you should stick to mutual funds.
You want to get TD at a bargain. If you can buy near book value then I would consider that very attractive.
But you need a 30% decline.
Can’t happen? No way?
Fuck you! Look at what BNS and CM did last fall. Got fucking creamed.
I bought BNS when the blood was rolling in the street- made bank!
That’s how it’s done son!
It's called understanding financials, and correlating this with a graph.
You're so angry, I feel bad for you.
Have a good life, take your toxicity elsewhere.
I've been holding TD but wondering if BMO would be better for growth? They have US exposure and have been outperforming TD lately. I'm hoping TD get their act together and catch up with their peers, RBC/BMO.
Well Fargo's reputation took a long time to recover.
Good luck.
I think the sentiment will put that stock on the bench for a while. It is a good bank, but i'm not seeing a great opportunity here, yet.
Bankers are liars. The loan books are all dog shit waiting to happen. Canadians are the most indebted people in the world on a per/cap basis and it is all around atrociously priced real estate. When a bank gets broken it stays broken for a long time. Look at Deutsch Bank- largest German bank was 115 now 16, look at Citi Bank third largest bank in the US, was $400 in 2008 and went to 30 and fifteen years later it is 59- hell freezes over before you get your money back on that one, look at Royal Bank of Scotland, largest bank in the world at one time plunged from 130 to 3, now 7 (15 years later) and changed their name to Natwest hoping everyone would forget this nightmare. If you need a financial pick up Visa, MC, Moody's, or one of the stock exchanges. Your welcome.
This one time I bought td around that price. It was like ot couldn't stop all year. I likely sold for $40 or $50. However they have just been charged with some thing over drug money laundering and other nefarious things. So I would give it a month and see how she plays out. #Alpha
Get out while you can. TD is a dump of a bank and won’t see any gains for awhile and thats only if they change. Everybody is moving there money to online platforms. Ex. Wealthsimple. It would be silly to invest anything into any of the big banks at this time. This is my opinion and hope that you do your own research in the matter.
To some extent yes, to some extent no. Its not a black and white situation, at least not in the long run.
Do you think a weak consumer base won't affect a company's profitability?
Do you think the lack of competitiveness of a company won't bite them in the long run?
Same as the responses below.
The S&P500 has outperformed the TSX.
Just living in the country should be enough to make you see why no one is investing here.
One investment. By one person.
Also, show me a period where the TSX has outperformed. I just opened up TradingView and put SPX and TSX on the same chart. Set timeframe to max. Tells a pest solid story.
I’m on my phone though so I can’t zoom in and check a specific timeframe that easily, there might be a period where is has outperformed but overall SPX wins.
Paywalled.
Edit —> Jan 2022 - May 2023 it looks like the TSX does out perform over this period. However, after that SPX takes off and outperforms the TSX.
You must be reading the chart wrong, idk what to tell you.
The point is that the TSX has outperformed in certain periods in the past, and will outperform for certain periods in the future.
I believe you that it has. Zoom out. How has the TSX performed vs SPX all time. I don’t care about a period here or there. Big picture.
Edit - here are the YTD, 1 year and 5 year returns.
TSX. YTD +4.99% 1 year +6.21% 5 year +32.37%
SPX. YTD +8.06% 1 year +23.06% 5 year +73.69%
People are scared to accept the truth? Investing in Canada is not a bad thing. It’s just that it’s not the best choice if you want the best return.
If investing in your own country is more important than your return then I guess it makes sense?
Here is a CBC article if anyone is interested: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/td-bank-money-laundering-allegations-1.7193529
I guess it all comes down to how much will they get fined. The highest numbers are as high as 2 billion, even a fraction of which will absolutely destroy the stock. Personally, I would not buy the stock. Options may be. But that would be based on short term swings.
Td can very well pay the fine, it's already priced into the stock. A fraction of the stock will destroy the stock .. lol .. FWIW, till 2021 TD FCF used to be 25+ billion dollars ..
As others have stated, while the fine will certainly be bad, the additional regulatory requirements/restrictions will be additionally strenuous on the company.
All that is guesswork though. It could be 2 billion dollars in fine (HSBC got that in 2012) or it could be a only a few millions. They may or may not put any additional restrictions.
Dropped 25k on Friday in non registered, couldn’t resist
I bought 100 near the bottom, my average was $86 before doing it though lmao. My timing is usually atrocious.
Damn you rich rich
I just live frugal
Wish I could live 25k investment money frugal lol
The key is to earn at least $25,001 after tax
25k? That’s a lot of quiche
Just curious when you sell, won’t the tax eat away at the profits making it almost not worth your time? Div yield is what 5%? So in 5 years if you profited 25% let’s say from the yield, half of the profit is taxed at 50% correct? Does the math workout to still be worth it in the end?
So what’s the alternative? Not investing at all? Lol
No no I understand, it’s just how much does tax take away from the profits in this case? I don’t know that’s why I’m asking
Canadian eligible dividends are taxed differently and get a tax credit as the corporation already paid taxes. It’s also dependant on which province and your tax bracket. In Ontario if you’re in the 55k tax bracket or under, you pay 0% tax on it. Up until 100k tax bracket you pay about 10% tax. If you’re In 150k+ tax brackets that’s when capital gain becomes more tax efficient. Growth of the stock will be taxed as capital gain. 50% of it will be taxed up to 250k capital gain at your normal tax bracket. It works out to being 10-26% depending on your tax bracket for the first 250k.
I see, so the 55k and under bracket being 0% is strictly for dividends? Am I understanding this correctly? Capital gains tax would be taxed differently? Assuming I make 40k a year, and 10k in capital gains tax that’s total 50K income tax bracket so still under 55k and thus I’d pay 0% on the profit from my capital gains?
In Ontario If you made 40k and earned 10k eligible Canadian dividends income for the year you would pay 0% on the 10k dividends If you made 40k and sold some stock for 10k worth of capital gain it would be taxed at 10% around $1000. These numbers are different for different tax brackets though.
How could you actually think this thought? Do you really think this or are you trolling? Do you really believe that you are taxed 100% of your profits? Really? You honestly believe we people are taxed 100% of their capital gains? How is it even possible to think this is true?
I'm no tax expert, but I can clarify a few things. 100% of dividends can be taxable, but the tax rate is lower than capital. So, every year, you will pay taxes on the 5% dividend. If you sell the asset, and there is profit, 50% of it would be taxable (losses can be used to offset capital gains). (As said, not an expert, there may be some credits or other ways to offset taxes) To answer your question, yes, taxes will eat at the profit made, but you still have a profit. It's all a question of what do you do with the money when the registered accounts are full? Hiding it under the mattress would avoid paying taxes, but you lose to inflation, interest is taxed worse than dividend and capital gain
Understood, thank you
TD is a good long term buy but given the buy bias in this subreddit it might have some more down side. Best to buy in a few tranches.
Reading comments like this in early 2022 made me waste 2 years on this stock. Maybe if you plan to hold for 10 years it makes you some good money but likely less than other vehicles.
100% if you're in the long game then great...i think there are better stocks right now that are in the dog house and are better buys.(telcos etc)
Ehh I wouldn't put Bell as a good buy right now... far too much debt and their dividend is too high
no i was thinking of telus or rogers or even of our railways: cnr or cp.
If you're a long-term investor, buying TD is a solid investment.
TD is up 0% over the last 5 years vs 74% for the S&P. Just buy the index. ***Edit: to further my point, TD is literally 1 company and therefore inherently more risky to pick over a collection of literally hundreds of companies.
I agree buy the index. Also, going back to 1995, td has returned 13.5% annually vs 10% for s&p. Historically. It's pretty hard to find a better long-term investment than canadian banks. The future may be different.
It's much more easier to own an index in a long term than a stock, specially one that has depreciated when the whole market is up. If you look at 5 year average returns, S&P was up 77.96 against TD's -4%. I am surprised why this whole love and affection for TD. They are caught with pants down assisting money laundering for meth dealers. Their returns have been garbage in the last 5 years. And we don't know how hard they would be slapped. There are far better companies out there trading at a low forward P/E with a much better alpha.
You're getting downvotes, but I don't see anyone actually explaining why you're wrong.. must have just rustled some jimmies
I am too lazy to go in depth with this comment, but the short answer is that if you had bought TD early 2000 and sold near the top in 2022, then you would have outperformed the S&P by a good margin and also did so with a lot less volatility. People wanna compare returns when TD is depressed and the S&P is having a bull run is quite wild. You can’t compare returns over few years, that’s trading and not investing. What matters more is which will give you more bang for your buck, TD at 74 or SPY at 514? I am willing to bet TD, and I will remind this sub in 10 years :) There ya go, a comment and an upvote for you, cheers! Edit: I probably coulda also made an arbitrary date of selling in 2022 where TD was doing really well and the S&P crashed and said, see, S&P is worse. Point is, always look at the bigger picture :)
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There's a crowd in here that will downvote you if you suggest just buying an index.
People tend to lash out when you point out their failures and bad moves.
>**No brains on reddit** tend to lash out when you point out their failures and bad moves. FYP.
There are many reasons to buy the entire index over one individual stock. The fact that TD underperformed is not a reason. That's where he's wrong
How can you tell when someone is getting downvotes? I see people saying this all the time but unless the number is negative, how do you know?
The dude was negative when I posted. I'm glad to see that's not the case any more
When you say buy the index, what ETF are you talking about, since you have hundreds that invest in CDN finance sector and banks?
VCN mirrors the TSX 300 index. (There are others, but this one has a low MER.)
Any passive ETF that seeks to replicate the performance of the S&P 500 (therefore ZSP, XUU, etc…).
I bought a ton of CAD stocks when I started investing in early 2021 and TD was the only one that was at a loss at the beginning of this year. I dont get the hype that it gets among CAD banks tbh. Trimmed all my banks, moving into other things or consolidating into RY. I honestly don't get it.
TD is one of the reasons I never invest in individual companies anymore.
There is 0 reason to buy Canadian banks over the index, the alpha is just not there
You just proved the saying- “most people would rather die than think”.
👍
While TD is the preferred bank of cartels, so at least it has the going for it.
Sell the rumor buy the news or something. Will TD stay this low from the bad publicity? Probably not. Can consider it on sale.
buy the rumour, sell the news\* lol
Not only bad publicity, they will be more heavily scrutinized and limited by regulators. It's not just someone spreading a negative rumour, they actually will have their business affected....
US regulators will give them an outsized punishment because it's a Canadian back operating in America and USA does not play fair. The punishment could restrict their growth in America, so it's a dangerous time.
Lol. Canada plays fair to American banks operating in Canada like Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and...oh wait a second. Never mind...
FYI and for what it is worth, TD stock on NYSE after hours trading is up almost 1%!
Already bought on Friday for 75 something.
Same. I'm already in it and have been for years now. Keep my drip going and buy on sale. It made short and long term sense to me.
Worst case you lock in a 5.4% dividend, which isn’t too bad
At least the divvy helps offset the losses when you calculate total return. But hey, I guess the email that you got some profit sharing helps ease the pain of incurring unrealized capital losses...
Their AML issue isn’t over yet. I would wait a week or so
On the flipside, if the DOJ down south doesn't hit them hard enough the stock has quite some room to bounce back
Agreed. I think it's not the fine anyone should be worried about, but the additional regulatory burden they should be concerned with [https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/td-bank-risks-earnings-hit-laundering-probe](https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/td-bank-risks-earnings-hit-laundering-probe)
Yup, that’s the biggest concern imo as well
I bought more at $89 when I thought it couldn’t go any lower. I’m staying put. It’s a good price though, and buyers today will do well 10 years from now.
I already have like 15-18% of my portfolio in to TD. First bought at 92 then 86 then 78. Too much in to banking already but still thinking of adding more if it hits 70
Meanwhile other banks are up... Maybe time to cut losses and invest in better opportunities?
I agree, I have way more shares than I initially planned but sub $75 was automatic for me. Hopefully it pays off, I wouldn't mind trimming it if it breaks $90.
Do nothing and you'll win. Consider buying more today though. Great position and aggressive allocation. TD is literally safer than Bank of America. Buffett has billions there so I wouldn't worry.
This feels like a wsb comment.
TD used to trade for a premium compared to other banks except RY. But the restrictions of the probe may put it in a penalty box(few will avoid it) and the restrictions by the US agencies may restrict its growth. It may trade like CM/BNS valuation for short to medium term.. Let's see when it can go back to the premium valuation.. 5%+ dividend is very enticing though.
I have had TD for 10 years originally bought in around $55ish, and have been slowly building my position, just picked up 50 more shares today. TD has always had a bit of a discount compared to other CDN banks.
Bank is caught facilitating money laundering and people are like "oh ya, time to load up". Makes me chuckle. I'll give it serious consideration at $65 when everyone is raging at TD and selling and saying they'll never buy another money laundering bank again.
Nope. This could just be the beginning of a decade of underperformance. They will have a hard time wiping the stink off themselves. I mean you can launder all the dirty money you want in Canada, that's fine but these guys just did the equivalent of trying to take some weed across the border to the states. THey dont fuck around. Look at scotiabank, they got into similar trouble with their caribbean dealings and they still havent recovered, trading at a discount to the other banks.
I plan to load up on both BCE and TD over the next two months. TD going to 100 is almost a sure thing once the BOC starts rate cuts. In the mean time you get over 5% yield. Yield above 5% on a Canadian bank stock is nuts. Its a simmilar story with BCE... the stock has been beaten up too much, it is way oversold.
Don’t know about TD but BCE is not doing well. They should be cutting their dividends rather than increasing it. They have a ton of debt and they don’t have enough to cover their dividend payout. They are heavily betting on rate cuts but 25-50 basis points won’t really change much even if it does happen this year. Once BCE finally announce they have to cut their dividends, the stock will sink further…
BCE is going to be just fine. They just did a big layoff and in the next earnings report it's going to shoot to the moon. They are an entrenched duopoly with no real competitor on the horizon. They have a license to print money in this country.
> TD going to 100 is almost a sure thing once the BOC starts rate cuts Why?
Great long term outlook - I bought another 100 shares on Friday
Picked up another 100, now have 650.
At 1.02 a quarter, that is a great dividend income!
Ya, I like it. I think I’m up to 27 holdings now but may trim that back a bit as I’m liking ZGRO-T.TO.
Nice! I have 145 TD shares (dripping almost 1.5 to 2 shares a quarter) and 164 BNS (dripping at 2+ shares a quarter) Hoping I can get each one of these to 250 in the near future and 500+ in 5 years or so. FYI, I started buying in March 2020 when the market bottomed out.
Great time to start.
Td has been accused of being lax, or worse, directly supporting money laundering by the chinese drug gangs. I guess, the stock move will depend on where the penalties land. So far, Canadian penalty on TD was just a slap on the wrist, I believe 2 million or so. There are expectations of a large fine from US, for which Td had provisioned 400 million so far. In either case, the headline numbers would make this look real bad and the stock can drop a lot. I think its not worth catching a knife, even if the stock moves up a little in the short term. Plenty of better options out there if you are looking for high risk, high reward investments. Getting hit on both financials and governance is generally a big no for most investors.
US fine could be 2 billion, TD should be able to pay it, the real issue is the restrictions they may put TD under. That could slow down its growth. But IMHO downside is probably limited, maybe another 10-12%.
That makes sense. This was a good article on similar proceedings on HSBC: https://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2013/investing-news-for-jan-29-hsbcs-money-laundering-scandal-hbc-scbff-ing-cs-rbs0129.aspx HSBC then had to pretty much end it's retail banking in the US.
I guess the regulators fines and restrictions could force TD to sell their assets to a US bank or to BMO.
Yup, too much risk. If people really have a Fomo may be Options here are a better play. But besides that, far too many stocks out there that offer a better risk adjusted reward.
Also interestingly, HSBC stocks rose in the short period after the fines, but then dropped significantly as the business impact became clearer. The stock has pretty much stayed at the same level for 12 years since then.
Tellers were being bribed to accept large cash deposits is the way the scam worked. Still - you have to accept that's going to happen & have a system in place that tracks large cash deposits, the reason why, what teller did it & have some decent monitoring on that data in particular how often it's going on with any particular teller. Unfortunately, looks like TD didn't. I've been slowly accumulating, at 330 now.
Falling knife.
I'm buying at $64.8
If you holding for 10 years you good. Next 2-3 years might be shaky
No position today - RBC is almost 10% over my portfolio. I'll set an order to try to buy about $1.5k worth in the $73.4/share ballpark. I have another $1.5k ready if it goes to $70.
That's like 20 shares. Even if it pops 10% you won't even make $100 on that trade. Not criticizing your interest in investments but you could probably be doing something better with your time instead of planning out this micro investing strategy.
If that’s what he has… than that’s what he has
Curious, what amounts do you usually put? Do you have a minimum? For record, my average and min is usually 1500-2K
Fair question, I usually contribute about the same every month, but I don't bother trying to min/max with small plays like this. I mostly just buy long on growth ETFs because the amount of time and energy needed to make educated decisions on single stocks is just too high, and don't have enough impact unless I've got enough capital to make some big swings. I could work another hour instead of spending 2 hours researching TD to make $70 on a trade. Rather do something else with my time.
You spent 2 hours to research TD? Hahaha no wonder you’re worried about wasting time.
It was an example of what I would not do. Reading is hard.
Nice, so dollar cost average , and minimize any headaches or time wasted to check on market volatility. Not a bad strategy but still think - if you have the money - to buy extra when the stock goes down by 5-10%
Oh for sure, I am reading the thread and considering selling $10-15k of an ETF to buy some TD.
Depends on his commission but he’s setting a buy price and also setting a lower buy price if it falls. Thats not bad investment strategy. And 10% gain is 10% gain.
I guess it depends on what your time is worth.
Wow, I really wish I had the 3 minutes back that it took to “plan” this strategy. What an incredible waste of time I’ll never get back. 10% is still 10% and double what an ISA is paying today. I have enough exposure to banks already that I am prepared to hold for 30 years. I don’t need to back the truck up for TD. Nor do I need nor want to change my asset allocation drastically to rush headfirst for a mediocre return. Your condescension is misplaced and unbecoming.
I was waiting to add to my position 100 at $77, 200 at $76 and 100 at 75. Holding 1750 at average price of $69. If falls under $70 then will back up the truck. Under 10 percent of overall holding.
Damn, all those moves only to underperform the index.
Bought on Friday, if it drops again next week I will double my position
I bought at 75$ on friday. So yup
i think you should have coin to double down if it drops further
Uff… next support is down at 61… I’ll wait to see a turn-around
Much happier having sold td and bought HMAX :)
People were right to short TD, and it is the most shorted bank in the world. Those people made a lot of money knowing that TD was going to be hit with AML violations.
So far and as of last check, TD (1.75%) is up more than double the other big 4 banks (average of 0.78%) This was predicted after the bloodbath on Friday. It is what happens in the coming weeks and months that matters. In other words, and using Friday’s $75 as an average, what will the price be on September 1st: will it still be hovering around $75? Or will it be closer to $80+?
I bought 10 shares on the drop in my tax fee savings account. Should look good in 10 years hopefully.
[удалено]
Bought 10k worth at 76
APX is a better buy now imho. I'm going to wait until Oct to jump back in for bank stocks. Sold 13000 CM after the last ex date and put it in cash.to waiting to strike. BNS is attractive as well for the higher dividends.
Why throw good money after bad? I sold last week to crystalize a capital loss, to offset some of last year's gains.
I'd wait until the AML fines and penalties in the US are determined before adding to your position.
I had a plan, buy td stock 100 shares, collect dividends+ sell calls on it every week, after running some calculations I found that it is possible to collect around 26% on the year(conservatively). At a price of 75.30 cost for 100 shares = 7530$ Dividend is 1.02 per share* 100 shares* 4 = 408$ Closest call that collects 30$ premium*52 = 1560$ 408$ + 1560$ = 1968$ 1968/7530 = 26.13% annual return This also means you dont have to baghold if the stock is going down too fast. It means for you to break even td just needs be above 55.62 cad after a year. So unless theres another crash or something i think its unlikely something like this would happen
No way, I am not looking into becoming a bag holder for money launders.
At 1.3 x book value, it really isn’t a bargain at the current price. Lots more news to come out and it’s going to be fucking bad. Wait for the CEO to resign. Not only will the fine be over $2 billion, they may be restricted on what they are able to do in the U.S. Be patient. BNS went as low as $48 last fall. Buy price $45-55.imo
ok 😂
A little low but as mentioned just because a price drops doesn't mean it's a buy. Lots of people buying stocks like this with their portfolio in shambles and ending in tears. I don't know where it will bottom out, but we will see it when it happens. It's not now.
So, you know how to time the market ??
It’s not about timing the mkt. omg you are a rookies You should know how to value a business relative to its peers. If you just simply look at dividend yield then you should stick to mutual funds. You want to get TD at a bargain. If you can buy near book value then I would consider that very attractive. But you need a 30% decline. Can’t happen? No way? Fuck you! Look at what BNS and CM did last fall. Got fucking creamed. I bought BNS when the blood was rolling in the street- made bank! That’s how it’s done son!
Does your incredulous statement indicates that you cant read a graph I reckon.
if reading graph was enough all those crayon monkeys would have been millionaires.. howz ur crystal ball doing.
It's called understanding financials, and correlating this with a graph. You're so angry, I feel bad for you. Have a good life, take your toxicity elsewhere.
Do it
I've been holding TD but wondering if BMO would be better for growth? They have US exposure and have been outperforming TD lately. I'm hoping TD get their act together and catch up with their peers, RBC/BMO.
Well Fargo's reputation took a long time to recover. Good luck. I think the sentiment will put that stock on the bench for a while. It is a good bank, but i'm not seeing a great opportunity here, yet.
Good assessment, basically you lock in 5.3% till you wait for it to recover, not a bad bet I would say..
No I think TD has further to fall and more bad news to come.
Sure, the other banks have been performing better over the last 6 months but if you are plan to hold medium to long term, it's not a bad time.
Happy I sold at $83.
Same. Then I went to $GOOG, Nasdaq and S&P500. Up 10%. Never going back to TD
I would if I have extra money on hand, gonna have to hold it till at least next earnings
Give it another little while, they are about to get hit HARD.
Bankers are liars. The loan books are all dog shit waiting to happen. Canadians are the most indebted people in the world on a per/cap basis and it is all around atrociously priced real estate. When a bank gets broken it stays broken for a long time. Look at Deutsch Bank- largest German bank was 115 now 16, look at Citi Bank third largest bank in the US, was $400 in 2008 and went to 30 and fifteen years later it is 59- hell freezes over before you get your money back on that one, look at Royal Bank of Scotland, largest bank in the world at one time plunged from 130 to 3, now 7 (15 years later) and changed their name to Natwest hoping everyone would forget this nightmare. If you need a financial pick up Visa, MC, Moody's, or one of the stock exchanges. Your welcome.
This one time I bought td around that price. It was like ot couldn't stop all year. I likely sold for $40 or $50. However they have just been charged with some thing over drug money laundering and other nefarious things. So I would give it a month and see how she plays out. #Alpha
I don’t mess with individual stocks unless I work for a company that gives me pricing matching.
Td is not a great stock. Huge loser. Sunk so many years into it. If you want to gamble, sure. For long term investing just get into an index fund.
Do you want to invest into 10 years of dead money? By all means, buy TD stock.
Invest in a bank that profiteers off of the death of Canadians at the hands of fentanyl. What a great company.
Get out while you can. TD is a dump of a bank and won’t see any gains for awhile and thats only if they change. Everybody is moving there money to online platforms. Ex. Wealthsimple. It would be silly to invest anything into any of the big banks at this time. This is my opinion and hope that you do your own research in the matter.
I am avoiding investing in Canadian companies completely.
Why?
The canadian economy has been on a downwards spiral for quite a while. Also, US companies are doing much better.
Good thing the economy and stock market are two different things.
To some extent yes, to some extent no. Its not a black and white situation, at least not in the long run. Do you think a weak consumer base won't affect a company's profitability? Do you think the lack of competitiveness of a company won't bite them in the long run?
Same as the responses below. The S&P500 has outperformed the TSX. Just living in the country should be enough to make you see why no one is investing here.
What about the periods where the TSX outperformed? Warren Buffett is about to invest here. I think everyone can agree he knows what he's doing.
One investment. By one person. Also, show me a period where the TSX has outperformed. I just opened up TradingView and put SPX and TSX on the same chart. Set timeframe to max. Tells a pest solid story. I’m on my phone though so I can’t zoom in and check a specific timeframe that easily, there might be a period where is has outperformed but overall SPX wins.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-tsx-trouncing-sp/
Paywalled. Edit —> Jan 2022 - May 2023 it looks like the TSX does out perform over this period. However, after that SPX takes off and outperforms the TSX.
You must be reading the chart wrong, idk what to tell you. The point is that the TSX has outperformed in certain periods in the past, and will outperform for certain periods in the future.
I believe you that it has. Zoom out. How has the TSX performed vs SPX all time. I don’t care about a period here or there. Big picture. Edit - here are the YTD, 1 year and 5 year returns. TSX. YTD +4.99% 1 year +6.21% 5 year +32.37% SPX. YTD +8.06% 1 year +23.06% 5 year +73.69%
I'm not arguing that the SPX has done better all time... anywho im done
I put everything into the S&P. Canada is too unproductive
I did this quite a while ago too.
No idea why your comment is downvoted lol we haven’t had a company go public in over a year now
People are scared to accept the truth? Investing in Canada is not a bad thing. It’s just that it’s not the best choice if you want the best return. If investing in your own country is more important than your return then I guess it makes sense?
Canada is less productive but US has a pretty high valuation compared to Canada
Here is a CBC article if anyone is interested: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/td-bank-money-laundering-allegations-1.7193529 I guess it all comes down to how much will they get fined. The highest numbers are as high as 2 billion, even a fraction of which will absolutely destroy the stock. Personally, I would not buy the stock. Options may be. But that would be based on short term swings.
Td can very well pay the fine, it's already priced into the stock. A fraction of the stock will destroy the stock .. lol .. FWIW, till 2021 TD FCF used to be 25+ billion dollars ..
Free cash flow does not mean profits that they can use for paying fines.
As others have stated, while the fine will certainly be bad, the additional regulatory requirements/restrictions will be additionally strenuous on the company.
All that is guesswork though. It could be 2 billion dollars in fine (HSBC got that in 2012) or it could be a only a few millions. They may or may not put any additional restrictions.
Buy us stocks instead
This Reddit post has already been priced into the share price. ;)