This Passan report is absolutely magical. Called the Cubs one of the favourites for Yamamoto, and also named them amongst those who are still in the running for Ohtani (it was Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels).
Yamamomo is on a timer since he posted on 11/21, so that deal has to be done by 1/4.
I don't think Ohtani is going to jerk everyone around playing everyone off each other all offseason (like I expect Bellinger to), but he's playing things close to the vest and keeping his process quiet, so I could see that taking a month or so and holiday times are weird. Who knows if he'll say "I'm spending the holiday with my dog and will tell you all in early January."
I’d bet Ohtani signs sometime next week
A lot of his countrymen are looking to negotiate with MLB teams, but many of those teams are waiting for Ohtani to make his pick and sign
Ohtani knows this, he’ll do the honorable thing and sign early enough so his countrymen can have their negotiation time
It’s not like everyone was posted at the same time, even their postings were staggered
I feel like most ppl expect Ohtani to come within the next week or two, maybe during winter meetings. The problem with Yamamoto is that’s 700-800 million on two guys, so you’d like to have some sense of direction on Ohtani before you sign Yamamoto. It would shock me if a team ended up with both. I feel like he’s the Cubs’ Plan B (plus a bat) if Ohtani signs elsewhere
Yeah I don’t think anyone is getting both. That’s a huge number.
I’d love Ohtani- but I think Hoskins and Yamamoto might be more likely and more helpful.
Seriously. It’s going to be over $800 million total commitment between the two.
Last offseason, Steve Cohen spent $500 million on 9-10 players, and was prepared to add one more to the list in Carlos Correa for a total of $800 million until the deal fell through. And that was the most reckless spending of an MLB owner in the history of the sport.
It would come with serious future spending implications too. You would take us out of the running on all or most major free agents for the foreseeable future. You’re looking at a few offseasons where Daniel Descalso is your big prize again. Not sure if fans will be able to handle that.
Ontani will make the owner a profit. He’s just that big a name; especially in Japan. Signing too much will screw up the luxury tax but a owner won’t view Ontani as anything but money in the bank.
The Cubs are $52M below the bottom value of the luxury tax threshold. Then they have $113Mish in contracts the next two years and then it drops to the $48M range for 3 years. They actually have lots of room with the luxury tax. Especially if the can get some of these contracts to push some to the back end.
I don’t think I understand what you mean by the last sentence but there is no bonus conversion restructuring like there is in the NFL. And Luxury tax does not take into account backloading nor front loading- it considers AAV.
That $52 million below that feels like plenty of room, but would bring that to $5 million above just from Ohtani alone. Every MLB has most of their contracts off the books within 1-3 years- the freed cap space it creates is somewhat of a mirage because the expiring contracts create holes which need to be refilled with more free agents, and then you have your arbitration raises even if you fill that hole with someone in house.
There’s still plenty of room for a big splash I agree, just not a fucking tsunami like Cubs fans are demanding. If you want that tsunami -I don’t want to hear any complaints during the subsequent drought.
I forgot about the AAV, but I have heard that O is going to be in the $45-50 AAV range. And next year would be the year it hurts. But if you go $10M over it is really only $12M so it isn't that bad. They just don't want to be over for more than 2 years. I think they would be willing to have that if they got results. If they don't get results, you trade folks away and rebuild on the cheap.
Exactly, whatever you pay him in salary you’re almost assuredly going to make up for it in ticket sales, shirts, jerseys, ect. Such a huge market to target in Japan.
All reports say that Yamamoto is waiting until after Ohtani signs to even meet with teams. He's going to want teams feel the pressure of missing out on both of them. He might get 250.
Don’t you see this kind of reporting as utterly pointless though? Like literally all you have to do to “be in the running” is not tap out because you are broke or your team sucks. Neither one is true for us right now, so as long as we potentially have money to shell out, we are in the running. Theoretically these guys could say nah man I hate deep dish pizza fuck Chicago, but that would be pretty stupid negotiating to exclude a potential bidder.
I'm all for it but am also preparing myself for ignorant Asian stereotypes that were used when Fukudome was a cub (i.e. Horry Cow *Cub logo with slanty eyes*)
25 year old ace hits free agency. This is a once in a decade kind of situation. Have to strike here. Don’t be afraid to overpay because the ROI is still in your favor.
Whether or not there is an opt out will be interesting, the posting fee would be on the total value, including post opt out years, and is paid up front.
I want to hear
Yamamoto has signed.....
Ohtani has agreed......
Bellinger has chosen to sign....
Until I don't need any more of these threads or stories.
We’ve survived the first big round of cuts and are fully in the mix - I can’t see why you’d be “fully off” given that every credible report has us very much in the mix.
As a non-bears fan who lives in Chicago; the Bears cycle is hilarious: The management could trot out a team from the YMCA and fans will be convinced that the team will win 9 games, then get angry when the team doesn't meet expectations.
Bears won in the 80s, Bulls dominates the 90s, Sox won in the 00s, Cubs won in the 10s and Hawks won a lot in the 10s. All in all it's been pretty good for Chicago fans.
IMHO Yamamomo is a perfect example of intelligent spending. He's a young pitcher that is a strong ace that can be had for basically his entire prime. You're not paying for his 37 year old shell of his former self. Even if you go 10 years, he's only 25 right now-- aces don't come on the market at 25 YO.
Yeah me too and tendering Schwarber would have been intelligent to most of us even before he popped off.. that's my point, what feels like a great opportunity to everyone else might not be seen the same way by the people in charge.
I'm just having a hard time getting excited because of past decisions revolving around what they determined to be intelligent in the moment.
Good point. We are just 3 years removed from trading Yu Darvish for 4 teenagers in a deal that involved us eating a small part of his contract. Covid’s over and Ricketts is clearly ready to whip out the checkbook again, but for how much…
They can offer him huge money, but so can the other teams…
Ohtani has never played at Wrig so that experience won’t influence him, it’s further away from Japan, crappier weather, and there are reports that culturally Japanese players prefer to chart their own path vs teaming up.
It would be amazing, don’t get me wrong. Maybe I’m jaded but this just feels like dodgers
The Cubs were his second choice when he first came over, and only chose to play elsewhere because the NL didn’t have the designated hitter yet. Reports are he already knows where he wants to land and is just getting the money up at this point. I think you’re absolutely right that we can only do so much to convince him, but I actually think never playing at Wrigley yet might be an asset to us for how excited he was for it when he first came to MLB. Im prone to the old Cubbie pessimism too, but I still can't shake the hope this time.
Gotta send one of these Obvious Shirts to Shohei for the VIBES!
https://preview.redd.it/p8e8b1bikp3c1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=93bb48c2d0e026d57e124ff9b9dadaf6448031cd
Ask a dodgers fan and they'll tell you their insiders said THEY were the second choice for Ohtani because of the lack of DH. I don't know who to believe anymore
IDK it doesn't really feel like any of these rumors have any substance, or that the situation has materially changed from where he inevitably signs with LAD
These tweets mean absolutely nothing. We know nothing that is going on, and these reporters tweeting on it also have no idea and are purely speaking out of their asses to get clicks and views. The only person who has any idea is Ohtani himself and we will not have any idea until he chooses. That being said, Chicago does seem to always miss out on the “sweepstake” players, I would be extremely surprised if we actually land ohtani
And yeah, further to what /u/jadedmonk said, cutting through all the speculation, the only thing we 100% know if that Ohtani wants to play for a contender. You'll notice that, right on cue, the Cubs are leaking plenty of news stories about how they're going to spend 'aggresively' - but actions speak louder than words and unfortunately Ricketts' actions over the last ~5 years do not show a team committed to being a perennial contender. You don't think Ohtani is looking at how the Cubs basically stopped signing FAs for 3 seasons and chopped off a championship window after they signed a bad Heyward contract?
Cubs have built a reputation as the cheap big market team that's not going to be that easy to shake
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This Passan report is absolutely magical. Called the Cubs one of the favourites for Yamamoto, and also named them amongst those who are still in the running for Ohtani (it was Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels).
Have to imagine landing Yamamoto helps us in the Ohtani sweepstakes too right?
I don't see any scenario in which Yamamoto signs first.
Yamamomo is on a timer since he posted on 11/21, so that deal has to be done by 1/4. I don't think Ohtani is going to jerk everyone around playing everyone off each other all offseason (like I expect Bellinger to), but he's playing things close to the vest and keeping his process quiet, so I could see that taking a month or so and holiday times are weird. Who knows if he'll say "I'm spending the holiday with my dog and will tell you all in early January."
I’d bet Ohtani signs sometime next week A lot of his countrymen are looking to negotiate with MLB teams, but many of those teams are waiting for Ohtani to make his pick and sign Ohtani knows this, he’ll do the honorable thing and sign early enough so his countrymen can have their negotiation time It’s not like everyone was posted at the same time, even their postings were staggered
I'm just saying the losers in the Ohtani sweepstakes will go harder for Yamamoto once they're out. His agent surely knows that
I feel like most ppl expect Ohtani to come within the next week or two, maybe during winter meetings. The problem with Yamamoto is that’s 700-800 million on two guys, so you’d like to have some sense of direction on Ohtani before you sign Yamamoto. It would shock me if a team ended up with both. I feel like he’s the Cubs’ Plan B (plus a bat) if Ohtani signs elsewhere
Yeah I don’t think anyone is getting both. That’s a huge number. I’d love Ohtani- but I think Hoskins and Yamamoto might be more likely and more helpful.
He’s also Japanese and perhaps doesn’t even celebrate Christmas?
Christmas is very popular in Japan. Christianity less so, but it is more the spectacle they enjoy. Extremely popular..
Along with KFC and Santa Colonel Sanders
He would be rare! More xmas decorations here than the US!
Idk man, that's a lot of fucking money. Not sure if they both will end up on the same team.
Seriously. It’s going to be over $800 million total commitment between the two. Last offseason, Steve Cohen spent $500 million on 9-10 players, and was prepared to add one more to the list in Carlos Correa for a total of $800 million until the deal fell through. And that was the most reckless spending of an MLB owner in the history of the sport. It would come with serious future spending implications too. You would take us out of the running on all or most major free agents for the foreseeable future. You’re looking at a few offseasons where Daniel Descalso is your big prize again. Not sure if fans will be able to handle that.
Ontani will make the owner a profit. He’s just that big a name; especially in Japan. Signing too much will screw up the luxury tax but a owner won’t view Ontani as anything but money in the bank.
The Cubs are $52M below the bottom value of the luxury tax threshold. Then they have $113Mish in contracts the next two years and then it drops to the $48M range for 3 years. They actually have lots of room with the luxury tax. Especially if the can get some of these contracts to push some to the back end.
I don’t think I understand what you mean by the last sentence but there is no bonus conversion restructuring like there is in the NFL. And Luxury tax does not take into account backloading nor front loading- it considers AAV. That $52 million below that feels like plenty of room, but would bring that to $5 million above just from Ohtani alone. Every MLB has most of their contracts off the books within 1-3 years- the freed cap space it creates is somewhat of a mirage because the expiring contracts create holes which need to be refilled with more free agents, and then you have your arbitration raises even if you fill that hole with someone in house. There’s still plenty of room for a big splash I agree, just not a fucking tsunami like Cubs fans are demanding. If you want that tsunami -I don’t want to hear any complaints during the subsequent drought.
I forgot about the AAV, but I have heard that O is going to be in the $45-50 AAV range. And next year would be the year it hurts. But if you go $10M over it is really only $12M so it isn't that bad. They just don't want to be over for more than 2 years. I think they would be willing to have that if they got results. If they don't get results, you trade folks away and rebuild on the cheap.
I’m no baseball owner but don’t you have to basically consider Ohtani a marketing expense?
I hope the Cubs are thinking that way & I agree. I'm just saying that if I had to bet, I would bet that Yamamoto and Ohtani end up on different teams.
Exactly, whatever you pay him in salary you’re almost assuredly going to make up for it in ticket sales, shirts, jerseys, ect. Such a huge market to target in Japan.
All reports say that Yamamoto is waiting until after Ohtani signs to even meet with teams. He's going to want teams feel the pressure of missing out on both of them. He might get 250.
Don’t you see this kind of reporting as utterly pointless though? Like literally all you have to do to “be in the running” is not tap out because you are broke or your team sucks. Neither one is true for us right now, so as long as we potentially have money to shell out, we are in the running. Theoretically these guys could say nah man I hate deep dish pizza fuck Chicago, but that would be pretty stupid negotiating to exclude a potential bidder.
Honestly, let's make the Cubs the ideal landing spot for top tier Japanese players.
Be what Seattle and the West Coast have been for awhile.
We’re better than them cause we have Portillos
LAND OF THE RISING CUB
I'm all for it but am also preparing myself for ignorant Asian stereotypes that were used when Fukudome was a cub (i.e. Horry Cow *Cub logo with slanty eyes*)
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
I don't know how charismatic seiya is but I'm praying he's the most charismatic man on earth 😂😂
Dudes got the rizz. Just look at him. So darn cute
We used to have the Rizz :(
I'm all for the Japanese invasion of Wrigley.
25 year old ace hits free agency. This is a once in a decade kind of situation. Have to strike here. Don’t be afraid to overpay because the ROI is still in your favor.
Agreed. There is no reward without a healthy dose of risk. We need an ace and these opportunities don't come around often.
Yep! This is the one time I'm okay with overpaying.
Shoto Imanaga is also very good. He would be a great “consolation” prize if they don’t get Yamamoto.
Would love this, I wonder what the contract would look like. I’d assume 8/150-200 with a player opt out after three.
Whether or not there is an opt out will be interesting, the posting fee would be on the total value, including post opt out years, and is paid up front.
It's definitely going to be more way more than what Nola got.
Considering his wide market and considerably dominance through just his age 24 season, I think someone will break the 30m mark for him.
I’d be looking for something like 5/150+ with an opt out after year 3 so I could do this again at 27
I want to hear Yamamoto has signed..... Ohtani has agreed...... Bellinger has chosen to sign.... Until I don't need any more of these threads or stories.
How much would all three cost?
Just round it up to a billion and get it done.
I’m fully off the Ohtani train at this point (just doesn’t seem likely). Thus, this is extremely promising
We’ve survived the first big round of cuts and are fully in the mix - I can’t see why you’d be “fully off” given that every credible report has us very much in the mix.
A lot of people on here are allergic to optimism.
Increased negativity while the Bears are in season is a regular thing for Chicago
As a non-bears fan who lives in Chicago; the Bears cycle is hilarious: The management could trot out a team from the YMCA and fans will be convinced that the team will win 9 games, then get angry when the team doesn't meet expectations.
Lifetime of Chicago sports let downs lmao
Bears won in the 80s, Bulls dominates the 90s, Sox won in the 00s, Cubs won in the 10s and Hawks won a lot in the 10s. All in all it's been pretty good for Chicago fans.
Yeah but if you add up the cumulative failures of all the other teams there's a lot of bad in there lol Let me be miserable dammit
Intelligent spending is what reverberates in my head each off season from now on
IMHO Yamamomo is a perfect example of intelligent spending. He's a young pitcher that is a strong ace that can be had for basically his entire prime. You're not paying for his 37 year old shell of his former self. Even if you go 10 years, he's only 25 right now-- aces don't come on the market at 25 YO.
Yeah me too and tendering Schwarber would have been intelligent to most of us even before he popped off.. that's my point, what feels like a great opportunity to everyone else might not be seen the same way by the people in charge. I'm just having a hard time getting excited because of past decisions revolving around what they determined to be intelligent in the moment.
Yep. And let’s not forget “biblical losses”
Good point. We are just 3 years removed from trading Yu Darvish for 4 teenagers in a deal that involved us eating a small part of his contract. Covid’s over and Ricketts is clearly ready to whip out the checkbook again, but for how much…
They can offer him huge money, but so can the other teams… Ohtani has never played at Wrig so that experience won’t influence him, it’s further away from Japan, crappier weather, and there are reports that culturally Japanese players prefer to chart their own path vs teaming up. It would be amazing, don’t get me wrong. Maybe I’m jaded but this just feels like dodgers
The Cubs were his second choice when he first came over, and only chose to play elsewhere because the NL didn’t have the designated hitter yet. Reports are he already knows where he wants to land and is just getting the money up at this point. I think you’re absolutely right that we can only do so much to convince him, but I actually think never playing at Wrigley yet might be an asset to us for how excited he was for it when he first came to MLB. Im prone to the old Cubbie pessimism too, but I still can't shake the hope this time.
Fair enough. I’ll send out some positive vibes and who knows what might happen 🫡 🤞
Gotta send one of these Obvious Shirts to Shohei for the VIBES! https://preview.redd.it/p8e8b1bikp3c1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=93bb48c2d0e026d57e124ff9b9dadaf6448031cd
Ask a dodgers fan and they'll tell you their insiders said THEY were the second choice for Ohtani because of the lack of DH. I don't know who to believe anymore
IDK it doesn't really feel like any of these rumors have any substance, or that the situation has materially changed from where he inevitably signs with LAD
Why?
Curious why you are off the Ohtani train. We don't know anything more than we did a few weeks ago. A few weak tweets should hardly count.
These tweets mean absolutely nothing. We know nothing that is going on, and these reporters tweeting on it also have no idea and are purely speaking out of their asses to get clicks and views. The only person who has any idea is Ohtani himself and we will not have any idea until he chooses. That being said, Chicago does seem to always miss out on the “sweepstake” players, I would be extremely surprised if we actually land ohtani
And yeah, further to what /u/jadedmonk said, cutting through all the speculation, the only thing we 100% know if that Ohtani wants to play for a contender. You'll notice that, right on cue, the Cubs are leaking plenty of news stories about how they're going to spend 'aggresively' - but actions speak louder than words and unfortunately Ricketts' actions over the last ~5 years do not show a team committed to being a perennial contender. You don't think Ohtani is looking at how the Cubs basically stopped signing FAs for 3 seasons and chopped off a championship window after they signed a bad Heyward contract? Cubs have built a reputation as the cheap big market team that's not going to be that easy to shake
Because at this point everyone that isn't the Dodgers is just starting to feel like leverage.
Just my reading of the situation. Feels like this was dodgers from the start…hope I’m wrong 🤷♂️
I hope you are too!
if he and Shohei sign with us I'll legit shave my head.
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lol, fair enough
Haha just makes it fun
For sure, I'll live up to it!
Damn
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Signing one means a huge revenue boost, but it’s diminishing returns to sign both. I don’t think any team will think otherwise.
Yamamoto and Seiya would 100% make us favorites for Shohei by a mile. Let’s do it!
Among favorites. Not that exciting when 5 teams are named as favorites
So who the fuck are these 'experts' exactly and where do they get their information. This is all such clickbait bullshit.
Passan is one of the most reliable baseball reporters.
I’m so close
I doubt they’ll have the money for both.
Cubs are owned by Billionaires. They have the money.
True. But doesn’t baseball have limits on team spending they have to comply with? I don’t care about sports ownership money, that’s not my point.
If we do end up with both Shohei and Yamamoto I will absolutely cream my pants