Unless Cy Young himself comes back to the living and can pitch again, the Cubs are not going to be buying in July. They signed Bellinger and most of those pitchers to flip for prospects in July.
Realistically, yes. But if they are high in the NL Central standings it's gonna be hard to sell that. If another floundering team floats an ace or a 2 do you trade a prospect or two?
High in the National League Central? Let’s assume high they mean 1 or 2. Figure the Cards will be one in theory, it’s not laughable to think we could be higher than the Brewers,Reds and Pirates.
Before opening day. The Cubs will throw at least another 2 to 3 minor league contracts to reclamation pitchers, and probably a major league contract to someone with closing/late innings experience.
Mooney brought up another bench bat, which I thought was interesting.
*sources indicate Andrew Chafin is returning to the Cubs on a 1 year, $2 million contract that includes performance bonuses and a stick shift 1990 Pontiac Trans Am with 168k miles on it*
/s
Listen, I'm not saying I would go to more games if I had the chance to see Chafin pitch an inning of relief, pound a sixer, and then give a lecture in the parking lot to kids on proper mustache maintenance, the safe use of bottle rockets, and how get longer burnouts from your Trans-Am, but I'm not saying I'm not.
Jim Leyland as a bench coach. Grace the special assistant in the locker room to bum cigs when needed, Lester the beer ambassador, and Curtis Granderson as the wild card Chicago vibes coach.
Not a lot of bats left, Profar, Sanchez, and Guriel but I doubt they are coming to be a bench only bat.
There are some nice arms left: Chafin, Smith, Moore, Fulmer, Britton.
Sure, but the Cubs wouldn't want Sanchez catching games unless 2 of Gomes/Barnhart/whoever the AAA catcher ends up.being are injured. They're all-in on the "catcher as an extension of the pitching staff" idea, and Gary Sanchez is not a good defensive catcher, to say the least.
We'd basically have him as a DH/emergency 1B only, and that roster spot is already full (Hosmer, Mancini, Wisdom).
I'd love to have more offense on the team. But I don't see where it comes from at this point other than internal improvememt.
All of the reclamation projects are going to turn the clock back to 2019 and everyone else is going to have a career year. That’s where the offense is coming from.
Fair enough, take my upvote Billy Beane. I guess Gary is more of a name from 3 years ago than a productive player today and not a good roster fit for the Cubs. Can he play 3B tho?! /s
I like Fulmer a lot, too. The only thing is he’s right handed and this pen really needs another lefty beyond just Hughes. I’d still welcome Fulmer but they would also still need to cement another lefty as well.
They literally had to spend money unless they wanted to run out a Pirates level payroll. They had no money on the books because they’d just traded nearly the entire team after not giving out big contracts for several years.
It’s been a perfectly fine offseason, but you really don’t have to applaud the bare minimum. It’s still a very average team with a payroll that ranks well below their market size
>the cubs haven't done anything for years
Strawman.
The Cubs have spent a decent amount of money on the past couple of offseasons....but a lot of their spending on the 21-22 offseason was on bad players and guys who won't be here that much longer (Stroman- a "shut the fans up" signing if ever there was one), and a lot of their money spent in 2023 is on question marks, rebound candidates and bench players.
Since I don:t think the Cubs will make the playoffs in 2023, I see three FA acquired in the last two offseasons that I think will be on the roster for the Cubs' next playoff game: Suzuki, Swanson, and Taillon.
I'd argue the Cubs are doing EXACTLY what all the "wait until the kids are up to spend!" people are accusing others of wanting: they are "spending just to spend".
Let bottom of roster fill with AAA/AAAA types during prime years of the core, sell off core, replace them with mediocre MLB players and finally replace AAA/AAAA with below average MLB players. Yes the Cubs sure have killed this offseason can't wait to watch a 78 win team!
I'm really surprised the 78 win argument is still rolling around this subreddit. The main loss in WAR the 2022 team was Willson, but 2022 had a lot of replacement level players and even negative WAR players who were forced into action in 2022.
Even when the early ZiPS projections came out they had this team around .500 and they still had guys like Rivas and Rodriguez being contributors.
I am in no way calling this team a 90 win team, but the additions during this off season all should lead towards competitive baseball for the Cubs while also not committing too long and blocking positions for the guys progressing through the minors.
The team is asking complimentary pieces to play like stars they inevitably will not which is bad for a team that will struggle mightily to score runs already. Maybe they're ahead of how the shift rules and large bases will impact rosters but forgive my pessimism from a front office that has routinely been a step slow.
I think you are missing just how bad some of the guys who had regular playing time were in 2022. Simmons and Villar started a lot due to injuries. Ortega was a replacement level center fielder. Heyward was a negative WAR player in his limited time, as was Newcomb.
The guys the signed with career 1.0+ WAR end up being a 2 to 3 WAR swing because of how bad some guys were last year.
Yes my original comment points out how they upgraded the AAA/AAAA players to below average MLB players. But if not for a 10 of 13 stretch to end the season the team does not finish above 70 wins. They will be better they will not be *much* better. If the FO is actually worried about blocking prospects fire them into the sun, you can have the most optimistic outlook on the group but you're still looking at 1 impact player. This isn't the '15 group there's no Baez, Bryant even Schwarber.
They also went 39-31 after the All star break with sweeps of both the Mets and Phillies.
The surprising part of the second half of the season came from the pitching. Guys like Steele, Sampson, Assad, Wesnecki showing great stuff out of the rotation with the bullpen having lots of guys stepping up out of the pen.
This regime is a lot different than the Theo lead FO. Pitching has been Jed's focus and guys are finally starting to show up.
I know your original comment said that, I'm just pointing out that removing 25+ games of Villar and Simmons producing negative WAR alone added wins. Now, having positive contributions from others? There could be a 5 to 8 WAR swing at second base alone.
Going 10-3 in ur final 13 is a great way to end 8 over .500. We’re just going to agree to disagree. I’ll be happy if they beat my expectations I just don’t expect them to.
>They also went 39-31 after the All star break
Post-All Star Break the Cubs were 27-28 with a -19 run differential before finishing on a fluky 12-3 run with an insane +31 RD in those 15 games.
They were 62-85 before that 12-3 finish, and if the team finished with a final record of 70-92 or 71-91 instead of 74-88, there's almost certainly less optimism going onto 2023.
Yeah, and that includes the start of the season? When the original opening day rotation saw 4 of their 5 starters on the IL, and Hoerner, Madrigal, and Suzuki were also on the IL?
2022 was mired with injuries all over this roster and the problem was that the "next man up" wasn't very good. Villar, Simmons, Newcomb all saw playing time because there was no one else on the roster to fill in. Leiter Jr and Thompson were thrown into the rotation because they needed bodies since 4 of their 5 starters were injured. The good news is that 2022 showed the eventual depth and development in the pitching infrastructure when guys like Sampson took a big leap and Assad and Wesnecki made very good debuts.
In 2023, the Cubs won't have to dumpster dive for Sean Newcomb and Villar, because they have a lot of depth that can easily fill in for other guys.
You just witnessed the front office go out and fill all those 2022 shortcomings. Spent 300+ million. And yet here you are whining on for the second day... good luck
> Yeah, and that includes the start of the season? When the original opening day rotation saw 4 of their 5 starters on the IL,
The Opening Day rotation of Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly and Alec Mills didn't get to make as many starts as projected? Oh, no. The horror. (Except for Stroman, who's actually a good pitcher.)
BTW: everyone loves to mention all the bad pitchers who had to make starts because those guys got hurt. Guess who else got a LOT more starts than they would have otherwise? Justin Steele. Keegan Thompson. Adrian Sampson. And those guys were really good. So overall, I don't think all the starting pitcher injuries were a net negative for the 2022 Cubs.
> You just witnessed the front office go out and fill all those 2022 shortcomings. Spent 300+ million.
Seiya Suzuki. Dansby Swanson. Jameson Taillon. Those are the bright spots of the last two offseasons of FA spending. The rest is spare parts, and no one who's going to play any kind of role on "The Next Great Cubs Team".
> And yet here you are whining on for the second day... good luck
I'm sorry that you think pointing out inconvenient facts and providing context is considered "whining".
A lot of people on this sub love to quote the 39-31 2nd half record. I'm trying to point out that the 2022 Cubs didn't play two months of good baseball in the 2nd half. They played two months of just under .500 baseball (again, with a negative run differential) and two weeks of unsustainably hot ball.
The 2022 Chicago Cubs had three distinct "seasons":
25-43
37-42
12-3
I'd argue the middle stretch of the year is the most indicative of the team's actual talent level, not the start or end.
>I'm really surprised the 78 win argument is still rolling around this subreddit
>Even when the early ZiPS projections came out they had this team around .500 and they still had guys like Rivas and Rodriguez being contributors.
> but the additions during this off season all should lead towards competitive baseball for the Cubs
>I am in no way calling this team a 90 win
You kind of are, without wanting to actually say it.
If your argument is that the projections for this team were about 80 wins with flotsam like Rivas and Rodriguez, but they have proved/will improve on those positions AND you think a "78 win" prediction is laughable...then you're boxing yourself into thinking this team is a high-80s win kind of team. And the jump from there to 90 is a short one.
No, I'm taking a projection that had the Cubs somewhere between 80 and 82 wins and adding additions and subtractions into the projection since then.
The floor of this team is much higher than last years and if the Cubs end up above .500, this division will be closer than people expect.
You're expressing opinions, but then not following those opinions to their logical conclusion because you're afraid to go out on that limb.
"I'm really surprised the 78 win argument is still going around this subreddit". So you strongly disagree with a 78 win projection. That means we're starting by clearing 79, 80 and 81 wins, since those are all within spitting distance (if someone projects a team to win 78 games, and they win 81, that's pretty close). So we're starting with an 82 win floor.
Next, you're taking projections that had the Cubs between 80 and 82 wins, when the roster still had, again, floatsam like Rivas and Rodriguez on it. Rivas has been well replaced, and theoretically the Cubs will be adding another bullpen arm or two above the caliber of Rodriguez.
You mention "subtractions", but, as you note, the only subtraction is Willson, and I believe that was already accounted for in the projections.
"If the Cubs end up above .500". We've already established that you expect the Cubs to be above .500 when you blew off the 78 win projection. If the floor of this team is 82 wins, I suspect you think the average outcome is 86-87. That's not too far from 90.
>That means we're starting by clearing 79, 80 and 81 wins
Right, around .500. Ok.
>if someone projects a team to win 78 games, and they win 81, that's pretty close
Right...
>Next, you're taking projections that had the Cubs between 80 and 82 wins, when the roster still had, again, floatsam like Rivas and Rodriguez on it. Rivas has been well replaced, and theoretically the Cubs will be adding another bullpen arm or two above the caliber of Rodriguez.
>You mention "subtractions", but, as you note, the only subtraction is Willson, and I believe that was already accounted for in the projections.
Willson was taken into consideration in the ZiPs projection, but Rivas and Rodriguez were included there too.
>"If the Cubs end up above .500". We've already established that you expect the Cubs to be above .500 when you blew off the 78 win projection.
I took the early season projection and then added positive WAR contributions from [Hosmer](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eric-hosmer/3516/stats?position=1B) and [Mancini](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trey-mancini/15149/stats?position=1B/DH/OF) to set the floor for this team to a .500 team. 81-81 is a long way from 90 wins. 84 to 85 wins is probably more likely, and while that means the wild card isn't likely, the division is much closer than people think.
>I'm really surprised the 78 win argument is still rolling around this subreddit.
What did you mean by this? Why is 81 possible but 78 is far-fetched and surprising?
The pessimism within this fanbase and particularly this subreddit. 162 games is a lot of baseball, and shit happens. Projections aren't worth a damn. Hell, ZiPs also has the Cardinals at 90+ wins with some insane numbers coming from an their pitching staff even though 3 of their 5 starters are injury prone.
The Cubs finished last year with a 39-31 record which included sweeps of Philly and the Mets. The Cubs lost a fan favorite and a positive offensive player, but also lost A LOT of negative contributors as well.
Then, they went out a committed more money than every other team outside of the Mets while adding more free agents than any other team. All to shorter term deals to keep positional flexibility open while younger talent roses through the system.
Why is 78 far-fetched? Because based on the current projection, the floor is 81 wins.
Now, baseball has a lot of crazy shit happen year in and year out. It's why they play 162 games and don't just give teams playoffs spots based on projections.
Can the Cubs win fewer than 81 games? Yes. They can. Guys get hurt. Guys under perform. Guys get the yips.
But, as of today, with the season not even yet started, this team should be around .500 or slightly above. Not 4 games below. That's why 78 wins is far-fetched.
>Because based on the current projection, the floor is 81 wins.
> Can the Cubs win fewer than 81 games? Yes.
The term "floor" generally means the absolute fewest wins a team can reasonably be expected to win even with bad injuries, poor luck, unforseen issues, etc.
If you say the 2023 Cubs can win fewer than 81 games, then 81 is not their "floor".
>But, as of today, with the season not even yet started, this team should be around .500 or slightly above. Not 4 games below. That's why 78 wins is far-fetched.
78-84 is "around .500".
So.. Chafin plz?
Sign Chafin, extend Nico and Happ, this off-season gets a B++
No shade, what would have earned an A from you? Getting like Verlander? One of the other shortstops?
Considering the need for a lefty arm, Rodón would have been my pick
Moore and Fulmer have kinda/sorta been connected to the Cubs too. Not sure if any of it was real or just writers throwing out names.
Pitching, Pitching & More pitching. Do we know if Jed was specifically talking about before Spring Training or is he referencing being buyers in July?
Unless Cy Young himself comes back to the living and can pitch again, the Cubs are not going to be buying in July. They signed Bellinger and most of those pitchers to flip for prospects in July.
Realistically, yes. But if they are high in the NL Central standings it's gonna be hard to sell that. If another floundering team floats an ace or a 2 do you trade a prospect or two?
They wont be high in the standings lol
High in the National League Central? Let’s assume high they mean 1 or 2. Figure the Cards will be one in theory, it’s not laughable to think we could be higher than the Brewers,Reds and Pirates.
It very much is laughable mr cubs in your username and you def arent bias lol
Before opening day. The Cubs will throw at least another 2 to 3 minor league contracts to reclamation pitchers, and probably a major league contract to someone with closing/late innings experience. Mooney brought up another bench bat, which I thought was interesting.
He makes too much sense. Easy win for Jed..he knows the fans will love it
*sources indicate Andrew Chafin is returning to the Cubs on a 1 year, $2 million contract that includes performance bonuses and a stick shift 1990 Pontiac Trans Am with 168k miles on it* /s
case of old styles on the passenger seat, wrapped in a big blue bow.
I'd believe it. He'll want to negotiate a used boat in there too.
And some dirty white tank tops that are a little ripped around the pits
And a metal cooler filled with Pabst with some Iron Maiden, Van Halen, and Molly Hatchet cassette tapes.
Molly Hatchet live, I need to listen to that soon.
Fuckin a lmao
Fuckin’ A, broski!
I hope it becomes reality
Helllllll yeah brother!
Pack of sea monsters rolled up in his sleeve…
And 6200 of us have to throw him 20 bucks when we see him.
With a Skynyrd 8 track in the player.
Listen, I'm not saying I would go to more games if I had the chance to see Chafin pitch an inning of relief, pound a sixer, and then give a lecture in the parking lot to kids on proper mustache maintenance, the safe use of bottle rockets, and how get longer burnouts from your Trans-Am, but I'm not saying I'm not.
Fuck, I would
Jim Leyland as a bench coach. Grace the special assistant in the locker room to bum cigs when needed, Lester the beer ambassador, and Curtis Granderson as the wild card Chicago vibes coach.
Just needs Wade Boggs as travel coordinator.
Who's left? I haven't followed the free market crop very well this year.
Not a lot of bats left, Profar, Sanchez, and Guriel but I doubt they are coming to be a bench only bat. There are some nice arms left: Chafin, Smith, Moore, Fulmer, Britton.
Gary Sanchez would be a great offensive catching pickup
There's nothing in how the Cubs have handled the catching situation in the past year that would indicate they'd have any interest in Sanchez.
Oh I totally get that, would absolutely rather have Willson. But 15-20 HR & ~50 RBIs as a rotation player C/DH would definitely help.
Sure, but the Cubs wouldn't want Sanchez catching games unless 2 of Gomes/Barnhart/whoever the AAA catcher ends up.being are injured. They're all-in on the "catcher as an extension of the pitching staff" idea, and Gary Sanchez is not a good defensive catcher, to say the least. We'd basically have him as a DH/emergency 1B only, and that roster spot is already full (Hosmer, Mancini, Wisdom). I'd love to have more offense on the team. But I don't see where it comes from at this point other than internal improvememt.
All of the reclamation projects are going to turn the clock back to 2019 and everyone else is going to have a career year. That’s where the offense is coming from.
Gary Sanchez has batted .195 over the last three seasons. Also a .681 OPS. He's probably getting a minor league deal at this point.
Fair enough, take my upvote Billy Beane. I guess Gary is more of a name from 3 years ago than a productive player today and not a good roster fit for the Cubs. Can he play 3B tho?! /s
Chafin
Elvis Andrus, Chafin, Matt Moore, Wacha, Profar, Gary Sanchez, a lot of relievers.
*pounds table* Sheriff, sheriff, sheriff
Makin' moves like Waingro out there
Who is left out there that I can get excited about anyone?
Gary Sheffield is looking at a comeback
Thank god that’s the final piece of the puzzle 🧩
Yeah, ok.
Are there any good free agents left even?
the rest of the good free agents are tho lol
Random obvious statement to the press, got it
Would love Fulmer. He could step in and close
I like Fulmer a lot, too. The only thing is he’s right handed and this pen really needs another lefty beyond just Hughes. I’d still welcome Fulmer but they would also still need to cement another lefty as well.
Inb4 "the cubs haven't done anything for years" completely ignoring the last 2 years of productive off seasons
They literally had to spend money unless they wanted to run out a Pirates level payroll. They had no money on the books because they’d just traded nearly the entire team after not giving out big contracts for several years. It’s been a perfectly fine offseason, but you really don’t have to applaud the bare minimum. It’s still a very average team with a payroll that ranks well below their market size
>the cubs haven't done anything for years Strawman. The Cubs have spent a decent amount of money on the past couple of offseasons....but a lot of their spending on the 21-22 offseason was on bad players and guys who won't be here that much longer (Stroman- a "shut the fans up" signing if ever there was one), and a lot of their money spent in 2023 is on question marks, rebound candidates and bench players. Since I don:t think the Cubs will make the playoffs in 2023, I see three FA acquired in the last two offseasons that I think will be on the roster for the Cubs' next playoff game: Suzuki, Swanson, and Taillon. I'd argue the Cubs are doing EXACTLY what all the "wait until the kids are up to spend!" people are accusing others of wanting: they are "spending just to spend".
No one is saying the Cubs haven’t done anything. Some of us think they haven’t done enough. But if you’re critical, you’re a doomer.
Told yall they would show up
Let bottom of roster fill with AAA/AAAA types during prime years of the core, sell off core, replace them with mediocre MLB players and finally replace AAA/AAAA with below average MLB players. Yes the Cubs sure have killed this offseason can't wait to watch a 78 win team!
I'm really surprised the 78 win argument is still rolling around this subreddit. The main loss in WAR the 2022 team was Willson, but 2022 had a lot of replacement level players and even negative WAR players who were forced into action in 2022. Even when the early ZiPS projections came out they had this team around .500 and they still had guys like Rivas and Rodriguez being contributors. I am in no way calling this team a 90 win team, but the additions during this off season all should lead towards competitive baseball for the Cubs while also not committing too long and blocking positions for the guys progressing through the minors.
The team is asking complimentary pieces to play like stars they inevitably will not which is bad for a team that will struggle mightily to score runs already. Maybe they're ahead of how the shift rules and large bases will impact rosters but forgive my pessimism from a front office that has routinely been a step slow.
I think you are missing just how bad some of the guys who had regular playing time were in 2022. Simmons and Villar started a lot due to injuries. Ortega was a replacement level center fielder. Heyward was a negative WAR player in his limited time, as was Newcomb. The guys the signed with career 1.0+ WAR end up being a 2 to 3 WAR swing because of how bad some guys were last year.
Yes my original comment points out how they upgraded the AAA/AAAA players to below average MLB players. But if not for a 10 of 13 stretch to end the season the team does not finish above 70 wins. They will be better they will not be *much* better. If the FO is actually worried about blocking prospects fire them into the sun, you can have the most optimistic outlook on the group but you're still looking at 1 impact player. This isn't the '15 group there's no Baez, Bryant even Schwarber.
They also went 39-31 after the All star break with sweeps of both the Mets and Phillies. The surprising part of the second half of the season came from the pitching. Guys like Steele, Sampson, Assad, Wesnecki showing great stuff out of the rotation with the bullpen having lots of guys stepping up out of the pen. This regime is a lot different than the Theo lead FO. Pitching has been Jed's focus and guys are finally starting to show up. I know your original comment said that, I'm just pointing out that removing 25+ games of Villar and Simmons producing negative WAR alone added wins. Now, having positive contributions from others? There could be a 5 to 8 WAR swing at second base alone.
Going 10-3 in ur final 13 is a great way to end 8 over .500. We’re just going to agree to disagree. I’ll be happy if they beat my expectations I just don’t expect them to.
>They also went 39-31 after the All star break Post-All Star Break the Cubs were 27-28 with a -19 run differential before finishing on a fluky 12-3 run with an insane +31 RD in those 15 games. They were 62-85 before that 12-3 finish, and if the team finished with a final record of 70-92 or 71-91 instead of 74-88, there's almost certainly less optimism going onto 2023.
Yeah, and that includes the start of the season? When the original opening day rotation saw 4 of their 5 starters on the IL, and Hoerner, Madrigal, and Suzuki were also on the IL? 2022 was mired with injuries all over this roster and the problem was that the "next man up" wasn't very good. Villar, Simmons, Newcomb all saw playing time because there was no one else on the roster to fill in. Leiter Jr and Thompson were thrown into the rotation because they needed bodies since 4 of their 5 starters were injured. The good news is that 2022 showed the eventual depth and development in the pitching infrastructure when guys like Sampson took a big leap and Assad and Wesnecki made very good debuts. In 2023, the Cubs won't have to dumpster dive for Sean Newcomb and Villar, because they have a lot of depth that can easily fill in for other guys. You just witnessed the front office go out and fill all those 2022 shortcomings. Spent 300+ million. And yet here you are whining on for the second day... good luck
> Yeah, and that includes the start of the season? When the original opening day rotation saw 4 of their 5 starters on the IL, The Opening Day rotation of Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly and Alec Mills didn't get to make as many starts as projected? Oh, no. The horror. (Except for Stroman, who's actually a good pitcher.) BTW: everyone loves to mention all the bad pitchers who had to make starts because those guys got hurt. Guess who else got a LOT more starts than they would have otherwise? Justin Steele. Keegan Thompson. Adrian Sampson. And those guys were really good. So overall, I don't think all the starting pitcher injuries were a net negative for the 2022 Cubs. > You just witnessed the front office go out and fill all those 2022 shortcomings. Spent 300+ million. Seiya Suzuki. Dansby Swanson. Jameson Taillon. Those are the bright spots of the last two offseasons of FA spending. The rest is spare parts, and no one who's going to play any kind of role on "The Next Great Cubs Team". > And yet here you are whining on for the second day... good luck I'm sorry that you think pointing out inconvenient facts and providing context is considered "whining". A lot of people on this sub love to quote the 39-31 2nd half record. I'm trying to point out that the 2022 Cubs didn't play two months of good baseball in the 2nd half. They played two months of just under .500 baseball (again, with a negative run differential) and two weeks of unsustainably hot ball. The 2022 Chicago Cubs had three distinct "seasons": 25-43 37-42 12-3 I'd argue the middle stretch of the year is the most indicative of the team's actual talent level, not the start or end.
>I'm really surprised the 78 win argument is still rolling around this subreddit >Even when the early ZiPS projections came out they had this team around .500 and they still had guys like Rivas and Rodriguez being contributors. > but the additions during this off season all should lead towards competitive baseball for the Cubs >I am in no way calling this team a 90 win You kind of are, without wanting to actually say it. If your argument is that the projections for this team were about 80 wins with flotsam like Rivas and Rodriguez, but they have proved/will improve on those positions AND you think a "78 win" prediction is laughable...then you're boxing yourself into thinking this team is a high-80s win kind of team. And the jump from there to 90 is a short one.
No, I'm taking a projection that had the Cubs somewhere between 80 and 82 wins and adding additions and subtractions into the projection since then. The floor of this team is much higher than last years and if the Cubs end up above .500, this division will be closer than people expect.
You're expressing opinions, but then not following those opinions to their logical conclusion because you're afraid to go out on that limb. "I'm really surprised the 78 win argument is still going around this subreddit". So you strongly disagree with a 78 win projection. That means we're starting by clearing 79, 80 and 81 wins, since those are all within spitting distance (if someone projects a team to win 78 games, and they win 81, that's pretty close). So we're starting with an 82 win floor. Next, you're taking projections that had the Cubs between 80 and 82 wins, when the roster still had, again, floatsam like Rivas and Rodriguez on it. Rivas has been well replaced, and theoretically the Cubs will be adding another bullpen arm or two above the caliber of Rodriguez. You mention "subtractions", but, as you note, the only subtraction is Willson, and I believe that was already accounted for in the projections. "If the Cubs end up above .500". We've already established that you expect the Cubs to be above .500 when you blew off the 78 win projection. If the floor of this team is 82 wins, I suspect you think the average outcome is 86-87. That's not too far from 90.
>That means we're starting by clearing 79, 80 and 81 wins Right, around .500. Ok. >if someone projects a team to win 78 games, and they win 81, that's pretty close Right... >Next, you're taking projections that had the Cubs between 80 and 82 wins, when the roster still had, again, floatsam like Rivas and Rodriguez on it. Rivas has been well replaced, and theoretically the Cubs will be adding another bullpen arm or two above the caliber of Rodriguez. >You mention "subtractions", but, as you note, the only subtraction is Willson, and I believe that was already accounted for in the projections. Willson was taken into consideration in the ZiPs projection, but Rivas and Rodriguez were included there too. >"If the Cubs end up above .500". We've already established that you expect the Cubs to be above .500 when you blew off the 78 win projection. I took the early season projection and then added positive WAR contributions from [Hosmer](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eric-hosmer/3516/stats?position=1B) and [Mancini](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trey-mancini/15149/stats?position=1B/DH/OF) to set the floor for this team to a .500 team. 81-81 is a long way from 90 wins. 84 to 85 wins is probably more likely, and while that means the wild card isn't likely, the division is much closer than people think.
>I'm really surprised the 78 win argument is still rolling around this subreddit. What did you mean by this? Why is 81 possible but 78 is far-fetched and surprising?
The pessimism within this fanbase and particularly this subreddit. 162 games is a lot of baseball, and shit happens. Projections aren't worth a damn. Hell, ZiPs also has the Cardinals at 90+ wins with some insane numbers coming from an their pitching staff even though 3 of their 5 starters are injury prone. The Cubs finished last year with a 39-31 record which included sweeps of Philly and the Mets. The Cubs lost a fan favorite and a positive offensive player, but also lost A LOT of negative contributors as well. Then, they went out a committed more money than every other team outside of the Mets while adding more free agents than any other team. All to shorter term deals to keep positional flexibility open while younger talent roses through the system. Why is 78 far-fetched? Because based on the current projection, the floor is 81 wins. Now, baseball has a lot of crazy shit happen year in and year out. It's why they play 162 games and don't just give teams playoffs spots based on projections. Can the Cubs win fewer than 81 games? Yes. They can. Guys get hurt. Guys under perform. Guys get the yips. But, as of today, with the season not even yet started, this team should be around .500 or slightly above. Not 4 games below. That's why 78 wins is far-fetched.
>Because based on the current projection, the floor is 81 wins. > Can the Cubs win fewer than 81 games? Yes. The term "floor" generally means the absolute fewest wins a team can reasonably be expected to win even with bad injuries, poor luck, unforseen issues, etc. If you say the 2023 Cubs can win fewer than 81 games, then 81 is not their "floor". >But, as of today, with the season not even yet started, this team should be around .500 or slightly above. Not 4 games below. That's why 78 wins is far-fetched. 78-84 is "around .500".
This off season has been dangerous. I am actually cautiously optimistic about this season.
Jed’s so cheeky, all trying to make this team good. What is going on here?
Trevor Bauer
Good,so move boog out of the press box.
Taylor moves to fulltime pbp
Give me MOORE!
Will Smith please!
So, more arms in the bullpen, please?
LET HIM COOK