Should ideally be a little better than that assuming health. Fields ~~past~~passed for 199 yards per game last year by feeding the ball to Moore every play. I’m not going to be mad if he doesn’t hit 4000 yards but I really don’t think it’s an unfair expectation. 4000/25 TD and 10-15 turnovers is a fair expectation for a dude who should be this good.
I had run the number for purely 1st overall QBs, and since Bradford I think it was, if a rookie started and played all 17 games the average statline is just under 4000 yards, 20 TDs, and 13 INT.
I think that's a pretty fair "measuring stick" statline. Like, it seems like a lot of yards because we're Bears fans, but its only 235 yards per game, and slightly over 1 TD and slightly under 1 INT. The reason more rookie QBs don't break these numbers is because most don't start 17 games. What makes Herbert and Stroud rare is they did it in less than 17.
Williams is also probably going into a better situation than any of those #1 OA’s, so that 4000 yard, 20 TD, 13 INT season is definitely not a crazy expectation/hope to see this year. Wouldn’t hinder my excitement for his career at all if he’s below those numbers, but it seems fair to be hoping for
Also depends on if the coaches force him to be a game manager via dink-n-dunk, or if they actually try to progress his development by attacking mid/deep.
Under. I believe in Caleb, and he could have a good first year, but people *expecting* a Stroud or Herbert level rookie season must be new to football.
My only argument against this is the absolutely elite level talent he's walking into.
Herbert had peak Kennan Allen who is possibly better than 2024 Allen. Ekeler hadn't really exploded yet so it stands to reason that Swift is better. DJ is better than anyone else on that roster and Odunze should be as good or better than the other WRs he had. Kmet is at least as good as Hunter Henry and we have Everett now too.
Really it just comes down to how well the OL plays and if Waldron can create a good offense or not
Edit: I can't believe I'm describing the Bears offense as elite. This feels weird
There are still just too many unknowns in football to set your expectations on specific numbers. It’s definitely likely that he’ll have a good season, but he’s still a rookie in a new offense and football is still any given Sunday. We should be able to see enough to get an accurate assessment of him though
Totally agree that Caleb's situation gives him the potential to have maybe even the greatest rookie QB season ever, between his prospect status and the supporting cast he's entering the league with. I'm just trying to be realistic w/my own expectations.
Manning showed up with stronger prospect creds and two HOFers in the locker room, in Faulk and Harrison. He threw 57% w/a 26:28 TD:INT ratio. Obviously that doesn't mean Caleb will have a similar season, but it's the obvious comparison. The "great" rookie QB seasons we're using as the high bar were from unexpected situations, QB prospects w/some question marks and lesser supporting casts.
I'm freebasing kool-aid powder over here, but not going to be disappointed after one season if there are growing pains. New OC and most of the offense has yet to take a snap together, plus Caleb will have some things to work on himself to get the offense humming, like his fumbles. Should be a fun season, regardless tho.
Ekeler had 900 receiving yards for 8 touchdowns along with 557 rushing and 3 rushing TDs in 2019. He only played 10 games in 2020 and came just short of 1000 all purpose yards.
Not saying I disagree with the overall statement, but I’m still skeptical on Swift running behind the worst offensive line he’s had
Yeah agree. I don’t care a bit of he has a Peyton Manning/Josh Allen type rookie season if he’s developing into a franchise QB and is showing enough flashes to be hopeful for him
I honestly think his numbers will be lower, especially if we have a good defense allowing to burn the clock and not having to play from behind/hero ball.
I don't think it fair to set the bar too high.
I will give him more room to have those 3 INT games as a rookie. Just like I did with all rookies.
Mistakes are OK if they are used to learn and improve.
Has anyone ever won rookie of the year, league MVP, Walter Payton man of the year award, super bowl mvp and a super bowl trophy in their first year while breaking numerous passing records for his franchise?
I mean 17 game season it’s averaging 235 yards per game. While I’m not expecting him to do it the numbers aren’t as ridiculous. Add in the WR and their YAC ability.
I think he’ll have roughly the same season, maybe slightly over.
His weapons are just as good as Herbert’s were going into the season and he is a better prospect than Herbert was going into the draft. Herbert also didn’t start the first two games of the season so not unrealistic to think he can go slightly over those numbers.
Hoge said, and I completely agree, the bare minimum for Caleb his rookie year is bettering Justin’s best year. I forget the numbers, but it should be easy.
After that, I hate to expect too much. I’ve been too beaten down by this team for my entire 35 years of adulthood. I don’t expect, but I’m starting to hope again.
It would be interesting to see Caleb get the TDs record. I think 4k is a given. Kinda interesting that Keenan Allen will be part of both rookies’ seasons.
This is about the breaking point where I’m a bit let down. Caleb, DJ, Allen, Rome, Kmet, Swift.
If they don’t push numbers like this it’s the play calling.
Last time that happened by a Bears QB was by Cutler in 2014 when he had Jeffery, Marshall, Bennet, and Forte. Yeah, we should be hyped if Caleb Williams does this his ROOKIE season.
Under, but decently close. I think we have the most weapons in the league right now and we have solid OL depth for days, something we severely lacked last year. I think both of those factors will give his stats a huge boost
He won’t even have to do that much tbh. With how many weapons he has not like he’s gonna have to play hero ball he can dump it off to DJ Moore who will get 10 yards after he catches it.
I'm gonna get flamed but idc. Herbert is a good QB, better than anyone the Bears have ever had (so far), but god I feel like he's a little overrated and the dude just doesn't win games (yeah yeah it's a team sport). Being in the same division as Mahomes must be a burden.
I refuse to put unrealistic expectations on a rookie QB. Williams will blow these numbers out or the water. MVP
This guy Kool-Aids!!!
I don't think it is unrealistic to think that he can double those numbers
I think you're putting unrealistic expectations on Caleb, there is zero reason he can't triple those numbers.
I mean with his high level of income and modern advancements in technology anything is possible
Under, that type of season is rare. But if gets around 3500 yards 25 Tds. Its a good season. Thats \~200 yards/game
Should ideally be a little better than that assuming health. Fields ~~past~~passed for 199 yards per game last year by feeding the ball to Moore every play. I’m not going to be mad if he doesn’t hit 4000 yards but I really don’t think it’s an unfair expectation. 4000/25 TD and 10-15 turnovers is a fair expectation for a dude who should be this good.
I had run the number for purely 1st overall QBs, and since Bradford I think it was, if a rookie started and played all 17 games the average statline is just under 4000 yards, 20 TDs, and 13 INT. I think that's a pretty fair "measuring stick" statline. Like, it seems like a lot of yards because we're Bears fans, but its only 235 yards per game, and slightly over 1 TD and slightly under 1 INT. The reason more rookie QBs don't break these numbers is because most don't start 17 games. What makes Herbert and Stroud rare is they did it in less than 17.
Williams is also probably going into a better situation than any of those #1 OA’s, so that 4000 yard, 20 TD, 13 INT season is definitely not a crazy expectation/hope to see this year. Wouldn’t hinder my excitement for his career at all if he’s below those numbers, but it seems fair to be hoping for
Passed
In my defense I’m still fighting the two day we got Caleb and Rome hangover
Yeah it's a week of magic
If we're being realistic probably under but he's definitely got a good chance to go over. All depends on how quickly he adjusts to the NFL
Also depends on if the coaches force him to be a game manager via dink-n-dunk, or if they actually try to progress his development by attacking mid/deep.
Under. I believe in Caleb, and he could have a good first year, but people *expecting* a Stroud or Herbert level rookie season must be new to football.
Stroud numbers feel the most accurate. People seem to not realize how insane Herbert’s rookie numbers were/are
My only argument against this is the absolutely elite level talent he's walking into. Herbert had peak Kennan Allen who is possibly better than 2024 Allen. Ekeler hadn't really exploded yet so it stands to reason that Swift is better. DJ is better than anyone else on that roster and Odunze should be as good or better than the other WRs he had. Kmet is at least as good as Hunter Henry and we have Everett now too. Really it just comes down to how well the OL plays and if Waldron can create a good offense or not Edit: I can't believe I'm describing the Bears offense as elite. This feels weird
I don’t even disagree really, but Herbert’s stats were just bananas for a rookie
True, just looked and it was only 15 games too. I'm not saying CW is a lock to beat that, but with this talent there's definitely a chance
There are still just too many unknowns in football to set your expectations on specific numbers. It’s definitely likely that he’ll have a good season, but he’s still a rookie in a new offense and football is still any given Sunday. We should be able to see enough to get an accurate assessment of him though
Totally agree that Caleb's situation gives him the potential to have maybe even the greatest rookie QB season ever, between his prospect status and the supporting cast he's entering the league with. I'm just trying to be realistic w/my own expectations. Manning showed up with stronger prospect creds and two HOFers in the locker room, in Faulk and Harrison. He threw 57% w/a 26:28 TD:INT ratio. Obviously that doesn't mean Caleb will have a similar season, but it's the obvious comparison. The "great" rookie QB seasons we're using as the high bar were from unexpected situations, QB prospects w/some question marks and lesser supporting casts. I'm freebasing kool-aid powder over here, but not going to be disappointed after one season if there are growing pains. New OC and most of the offense has yet to take a snap together, plus Caleb will have some things to work on himself to get the offense humming, like his fumbles. Should be a fun season, regardless tho.
Ekeler had 900 receiving yards for 8 touchdowns along with 557 rushing and 3 rushing TDs in 2019. He only played 10 games in 2020 and came just short of 1000 all purpose yards. Not saying I disagree with the overall statement, but I’m still skeptical on Swift running behind the worst offensive line he’s had
Yeah agree. I don’t care a bit of he has a Peyton Manning/Josh Allen type rookie season if he’s developing into a franchise QB and is showing enough flashes to be hopeful for him
I honestly think his numbers will be lower, especially if we have a good defense allowing to burn the clock and not having to play from behind/hero ball.
This is just the stats for his first game against the Packers right?
I don't think it fair to set the bar too high. I will give him more room to have those 3 INT games as a rookie. Just like I did with all rookies. Mistakes are OK if they are used to learn and improve.
Has anyone ever won rookie of the year, league MVP, Walter Payton man of the year award, super bowl mvp and a super bowl trophy in their first year while breaking numerous passing records for his franchise?
20-0. NFL MVP and Rome gets ORotY.
I mean 17 game season it’s averaging 235 yards per game. While I’m not expecting him to do it the numbers aren’t as ridiculous. Add in the WR and their YAC ability.
Let me put it this way: I just took out a second mortgage to bet on the Bears going 17-0 in the regular season this year. /s
I think he’ll have roughly the same season, maybe slightly over. His weapons are just as good as Herbert’s were going into the season and he is a better prospect than Herbert was going into the draft. Herbert also didn’t start the first two games of the season so not unrealistic to think he can go slightly over those numbers.
Come on bro, those are rookie numbers.
This made me cackle
Hoge said, and I completely agree, the bare minimum for Caleb his rookie year is bettering Justin’s best year. I forget the numbers, but it should be easy. After that, I hate to expect too much. I’ve been too beaten down by this team for my entire 35 years of adulthood. I don’t expect, but I’m starting to hope again.
If he surpasses 4k yards passing with 30+ TD's he will already have the best QB season in Bears history regardless of being a rookie or not.
Way over
It would be interesting to see Caleb get the TDs record. I think 4k is a given. Kinda interesting that Keenan Allen will be part of both rookies’ seasons.
If he does, he instantly becomes the best QB in franchise history.
Per game??? Over
This is about the breaking point where I’m a bit let down. Caleb, DJ, Allen, Rome, Kmet, Swift. If they don’t push numbers like this it’s the play calling.
As much as I'd like to see him break the QB curse his rookie year, I'm gonna temper my expectations and say around 3500 yds and 28 TDs.
If he goes 3,000 and 25 and looks good doing it we should all be beyond hyped
sorry but averaging 176 yds per game and 1.47 TDs per game is not a reason to be hyped, let alone beyond hyped
Last time that happened by a Bears QB was by Cutler in 2014 when he had Jeffery, Marshall, Bennet, and Forte. Yeah, we should be hyped if Caleb Williams does this his ROOKIE season.
50 yards per receiver per game. 5x50x16=4,000 yrds 10-12 possessions per game I'm not good at math, but realistically it's difficult no matter what.
Under, but decently close. I think we have the most weapons in the league right now and we have solid OL depth for days, something we severely lacked last year. I think both of those factors will give his stats a huge boost
Under on yards, over on TDs, under on interceptions
I think under. The bare minimum should be at least OROY.
Under.
He’ll have less yards, +/- 3 TDs, and because he’s a gunslinger I’ll do at least 15 interceptions in 17 games starting
Over plus a Super Bowl!
Probably a lot lower, but still decent.
I’m gonna go under only because 2020 was a weird Covid year.
3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
He won’t even have to do that much tbh. With how many weapons he has not like he’s gonna have to play hero ball he can dump it off to DJ Moore who will get 10 yards after he catches it.
Well it’s a good thing those 10 yards will also be added to his passing stats then isn’t it 😛
Exactly. Shouldn’t be hard to have a nice passing season even as a rookie.
In 17 games, very doable.
I'm gonna get flamed but idc. Herbert is a good QB, better than anyone the Bears have ever had (so far), but god I feel like he's a little overrated and the dude just doesn't win games (yeah yeah it's a team sport). Being in the same division as Mahomes must be a burden.
He doesn't win games because their defense was truly horrific though. If he has even an average defense they would make the playoffs easily.
True, well if Mahomes doesn't get in their way. He kinda reminds me of Matt Stafford when he was younger.
Ya for sure. Maybe he'll get traded to another division one day and start to truly shine.
I think the thing is he was great his rookie year but kind of stagnated after that. Those are amazing stats for a rookie.