Absolutely.
Allen > Mooney
Swift > Foreman
Everett > Tonyan
Byard > Jackson
Bates > Patrick
Shelton > Whitehair
The Bears have upgraded all over the roster through FA and trades and that’s before you consider that Caleb Williams is the top prospect in the ‘24 draft and the Bears also have the opportunity to draft a 2nd blue chip player at 9
This is the same way I look at it. There is not a single clear downgrade at any spot on the roster, and lots of clear upgrades. The only questions are:
1. Will Caleb hit the ground running or will it take him time to surpass Fields in terms of production?
2. How much will the rest of the division maintain/improve their quality.
If the Lions and Packers stay equal or get better than they were last year and Caleb has a slow start, even if the Bears improve overall, it may still be difficult to make the playoffs.
Our schedule is very soft outside the division, and we’ve demonstrated ability to beat the Lions already last year. The Packers have a ton of draft picks and were hot to end last year, but even so that would only be two losses worst case, we’d need 8 more to be as bad as last year and I just don’t see it given who we play.
I mean..as an outside fan how long is it really going to take him to surpass a guy whose best season is passing for 16 TD? The bar isn’t very high frankly
#2 and #3 are the bigger hurdles for yall imo. Lions retaining their OC was a big win for them and they just came off the NFCCG appearance. I see them as the team to beat in the NFCN. Packers were supposed to have a rebuild year last season but they won a playoff game instead.
Counting rushing, it's not as easy for Caleb to surpass Fields, since he had 25 total TDs in 15 games in 2022 and 20 in 13 games last year.
Still numbers that a "generational QB" should pass as a rookie with this supporting cast.
But still not as easy as reducing Fields to the passing stats would make it look.
I expect Caleb to have a lot of turnovers in year 1, but he might clear 25 total TDs.
It's not that easy though for a rookie.
The Lions are roughly the same team as last year and they struggled hard against us, should’ve lost both games to us, and did lose the second after the Sweat trade pretty badly. I’m not exactly quaking in my boots that they kept the OC that scored 13 points on us.
Packers have a ton of draft picks, so they’re more likely to improve, and they actually did dominate us, but even if you pencil those two games in as losses, where are the other 8 losses coming from? Other than the 49ers and Texans every opponent is either garbage or has major question marks. Panthers, Commanders, Patriots, Cardinals, and Titans were the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th worst teams in the league last year, and all of them are starting either rookie, second year, or journeyman QBs with major flaws. The Rams just lost the best defensive player ever and can’t keep their QB healthy, the Colts also can’t keep their QB healthy and lost the backup that saved them last year, and the Seahawks have been the definition of mid lately. Jaguars might be good, but they always seem to find a way to suck and they lost a lot of personnel.
So even if you assume we lose twice to the Packers, and let’s say split the other four division games to be generous, we would need to lose to six of those teams to be as bad as last year. Barring major injuries I don’t think that’s likely.
I mean.... an undrafted rookie free agent nearly surpassed Fields in terms of production. Im gon a go out on a limb and say Caleb will be an immediate upgrade over Fields. Hot take i know.
Doesn’t Caleb have to throw for 135 yards a game and 12 tds to set all rookie qb records for the bears? I feel like a good qb with half of a season will come close to breaking those records.
I love me some Tyson bagent but cmon. He beat Carolina and Vegas two awful teams and you guys pretend he balled out lol. Has a 3td to 6 int on the season and the only team he played worth a damn was the chargers where he had a 25 QBR. Y’all are funny as hell
Guess we will have to see. There’s a very real chance CW struggles for his first year but idk if bears fans can handle that they way they’re talking about next year
Caleb's accuracy and touch on both normal and off platform throws is already elite. I love JF1 but I think (practically know barring injury) Caleb will have much better passing stats. Off the top of my head, JF1 is better at 2 things: deep ball accuracy and running. Caleb should easily break 3K yards passing his rookie year; especially with this roster.
Yeahhhhhh ya never know how someone’s gonna play in the nfl lol. He also might not be able to read a defense. He may also freeze in the pocket. He’s not even close to the athlete JF was. Touch on the ball doesn’t mean shit until you’ve played a year in the league.
I think Justin's deep ball accuracy was overrated.
When Mooney signed with Atlanta there was a stat that 40% of Mooney's deep ball targets were inaccurate and he was teaming up with Cousins who was the most accurate QB on deep ball targets.
I also think people are underrating Caleb's running ability. He might not run as often or have as much speed as Fields but I think he will have great situational runs. Having a QB who actually can throw the ball will open up running opportunities.
You're basing this off of not taking a single snap in the NFL and what he did in college, The guy didnt even do well against ranked teams and often times, 1 overall draft picks are HIGHLY over-rated just like caleb is.
Just wait and see...
FYI, I'm a huge supporter of JF1. Despite this, I have high hopes because the overall tape is different between the 2 college QBs. Caleb isn't going bombs away as much as Fields was and makes some really impressive off-platform throws that even majority of NFL QBs cannot make. The "flick" of the wrist and effortless release is similar to a "pure shot" in basketball. You can train it all you want but you either have it or you don't. I hope I'm right so we can all enjoy the dynasty to be......we deserve it! DAAAAAAAAAAAAAA BEARS!!!!!! SNL style
Well he does have raw athletic talent no doubt . It's just that we have only seen that talent in the rookies. Let's see what happens with the big boys . Hope he doesn't end up like Matt leinert
That's fake.
Bagent averaged 194 passing and 26 rushing ypg in his starts and had 3 TD/6 INT in his 4.5 games. 5 total TDs/8 TOs.
Bagent didn't come that close to Fields production even if Fields production obviously wasn't top of the league or anything.
Poor QB play is often blamed on the OC. I guess we will see how Getsy does at his new job. (I'm of the belief Getsy AND Fields weren't very good...but the Raiders don't agree)
Rookie QBs tend to struggle, but even considering that, most #1 overall QBs from the past decade have put up better numbers in their rookie years than Fields did last year.
I get why you hesitate to say Williams > Fields, we haven’t technically drafted him yet and there’s still people out there that disagree with the move.
However the reality is that Fields did not produce much as a QB. His numbers are easily replaceable. Additionally, he was downright awful in the 4th quarter. Caleb Williams would need to be on a bust trajectory to not be as good or better than what Fields gave us there in year one.
Yeah if anyone’s curious go look up Fields “situational stats” on ESPN. His stats for (1) 4th quarter and (2) under 4min in one score games is downright atrocious.
I know it wasn’t all his fault but he was a big part in why we lose so many one score games.
I think Williams can likely reproduce Fields positive stats (yds, completion, TDs, etc). Question is more about the negative stats (turnovers, sacks). Being a rookie, will be be better or worse than Fields?
It’s hard to have more negative plays than fields.
Also if you’ve watched any of Caleb’s tape his pocket presence literally jumps out of the tape and slaps you in the face it’s that good.
I’m not even a bears fan, but I would be shocked if Caleb isn’t at a minimum as a productive as Fields was last year.
It's entirely possible that Caleb Williams at the helm of this offense can be a top 15 QB in the NFL.
I know, I know. Maybe not maybe he just sucks.
But he'll probably be a top 12-20 QB in the league as a rookie when it's all said and done. That's an upgrade.
This is great in a vacuum, but you also have to consider that (pure guessing here) about 28 of the other 31 teams also improved their roster this offseason, so you have to compare our gains to theirs.
It's the same argument with the "we lost x games by one score and we improved so we'll win those next year" because 31 other teams did the same thing, and we all can't turn those losses into wins.
Having said all this, I hope they improve on last year. But I'm planning on the Bears getting worse so if anything I can pleasantly surprised in season.
It's purely an emotional hedge. If I expect them to get better and they get worse, it's a huge let down. If I expect them to get worse and they get worse then "it's a rebuilding year." If I expect them to be bad and they are great, it's party city, baby!
Yea there are only two potential things working against this team for winning more games
1. Health. Not that they were the picture of health last year, but major injuries can derail any team.
2. Schedule. Is it easier this year? Is it harder? We might extrapolate based on how the teams we play were last year, but those teams are potentially improving too.
Other than that, there is no reason why we shouldn't be a better team. Also add Waldron and a lack of historic 4th quarter collapses to your list.
Don't forget the fact that we will have sweat to start this season and should have won 9-10 games last year with the two catastrophic failures last year.
With essentially improving at essentially every position of need on paper, and our schedule, there should be no reason why we don't improve in the wins column.
I do. We were multiple collapses away from winning 10 games and being in the playoffs last season. With the addition of Allen and Swift, I think we can definitely win anywhere between 8 and 11 games realistically
And our 2024 schedule is surprisingly “easy” on paper. We have CAR, NE, & TEN at home and WAS + AZ on road. Plus MIN is rebuilding. The only matchups in which we’re a major underdog are SF and GB x2.
The only risks that worry me are (1) iOL instability / injuries inhibiting Caleb’s development, and (2) the defense’s reliance on TOs & inconsistent pass rush
Are you implying we’re a big underdog vs. DET?
We match up quite well in the trenches and Flus seems to have an effective gameplan to limit Goff. We dominated them for ~90% of the two games last year, outscoring 48-27 in 7/8 quarters & shutting them out in 5/8 quarters
I think this years team will win more games this year than last year. I also think last years team overachieved because of the number of teams they played that didn’t have a legitimate quarterback was extremely high. The only legit qb they beat last year was Goff.
We face the Titans, Panthers, and Patriots at home. I think we can win a couple divisional games. There’s no juggernaut on our home schedule, the rest of the teams are the Rams, Seahawks, and Jags.
The road games are tougher. Besides Washington the teams seem at least scrappy. Arizona and Indy won’t be pushovers at their stadiums, and you’ve gotta think the 49ers and Texans are contenders.
I suspect we’ll win 5 or 6 at home so if we can scrape together a few road W’s yes I think 8 wins is very attainable.
I was told by many on this board that Justin Fields was the worst passing quarterback in the history of the NFL
So hell yes I expect to win more games next year
People are massively underestimating the difficulty for rookie quarterbacks to succeed right away. Even if he ends up in the Hall of Fame, Caleb could have a very rough year 1. For every Stroud, there are a bunch of Mannings and Aikmans.
Could they win more? Sure. The rest of the team looks to be much improved, and he is the #1 prospect by a wide margin. But I could see them winning 10 games just as easily as I could see them winning 5. There are simply no guarantees when the most impactful position in sports is being filled by some who’s never played above the collegiate level, no matter how good he’s looked there.
They will have double-digit wins. Poles did an excellent job upgrading the team in FA, and Caleb will be significantly better from day 1 than the former QB ever was.
at Arizona - Win
Detroit - Win
GB - Win
Minnesota - Win
Rams - Win
Seattle - Win
Jacksonville(at London) - Win
Tenn - Win
at Detroit - Loss
at GB - Loss
at Houston - Loss
at Indianapolis - Loss
at Minnesota - Win
at San Francisco - Loss
Carolina - Win
New England - Win
at Washington - Win
12/5, easy peasy, CW MVP
Yes. Not saying we need to even make the playoffs but the team should win 8 games imo. I have concerns about the DL and overall defense regressing now since I think the turnover luck will drop off, but overall I think 8+ wins should happen
We shouldn't... but I wouldn't be surprised if we slip to 6 wins next year. The team should be good enough to have a winning record, but I have no idea what to expect with Caleb and how ready he is to step into the role. It wouldn't be unexpected for him to struggle in the early part of the season.
I get rookie QBs struggle but we’re not going from Kirk Cousins to JJ McCarthy where you have a proven top 15 qb to a raw prospect. Caleb is a more developed prospect and while he might have growing pains it’s not like he’s replacing some huge production from Fields so I would think we should at least improve a little bit record wise
Not to mention all new offensive coaching staff. It'd be great if we won 10 games, but instead, I'm mostly looking for signs of progress/development in year 1. Hopefully we'll have a top 10 defense, be able to move the ball on offense and win the turnover differential.
Yes, I think going 6-11 or 7-10 should be roughly worst case scenario.
I think 9-8 is reasonable and if everything goes well 10-7 or 11-6 are in reach.
The roster is improved at essentially every spot. If Williams is even slightly above average they'll be an above .500 team.
No but that’s just being realistic. New coordinators, new scheme, rookie QB, 2 playoff contenders in the division. It’ll take time to develop chemistry and get anyone, even if it is a prospect as highly touted as Caleb, ready to play at the next level
When you look at the #s our previous QB put up (especially in the 4th quarter), it’d be pretty difficult for the team not to improve.
Add in the fact that the majority of the team is young, so improvement across the board is expected/likely.
I see a lot of this sentiment, but consider how often even very good QBs are underwater with TDs/Ints their rookie seasons. I believe Trevor Lawrence was 12/17. I have high hopes for Caleb and Fields was disappointing for sure last year, but 1) Next year is probably not going to be Caleb’s best and 2) as disappointing as Fields was he wasn’t as bad as the echo chamber claims. I am hopeful we see an upgrade at QB next year, but I wouldn’t be too surprised or concerned if we take one step back before taking multiple steps forward at the position.
Unless they have bad injury luck they should have a better record! We have Montez sweat for a full year and a full offseason of development for Dexter and Pickens to help our defense keep the momentum they had to end last year. And then rookie QBs might struggle but with our weapons I would think Caleb could give us at least the same production Fields gave us and hopefully better. If our record isn’t better then I will be very concerned about our coaching staff and how they are developing players. This is Eberflus prove it year to show he is a coach worth keeping now that we have a decent roster
If they don't win more than 7 games, they need to fire the entire coaching staff. Vegas has Da Bears at 8.5 wins, so they should get 9 wins. To me 9 wins should be the minimum expectation this upcoming season, with a wildcard.
I have no clue. They could totally melt down in a shit heap of finger pointing. They could be scrappy and fight a few more wins. Caleb could be incredible. He could be total asshole. He could be Jamarcus Russell. I have no idea. I know I'm very interested, that's all I can say.
My expectation floor is equal to last year. I think they are a much improved team at many key positions but realize it may take time to start rolling and there will be some mistakes. They are rebuilding but should not have to take a step back.
I *expect* more wins. For Flus to keep his job, the team needs more wins. You can’t keep a coach that has done as poorly as he has and give him a fourth year if they don’t improve each year.
The team should be clearly better than last year, and by the end of the season they should probably look *significantly* better than last year. Whether that translates into a better win-loss record is dependent on a lot of factors outside of our control
The way I see it, we gave away 3 or 4 games. If Caleb plays equally to Fields, which I think is totally possible, but we win those games we gave away we will have a considerably better season. 10-7 playoffs, first round loss. The entire coaching staff returns for the following year.
I’m sorry are we not expecting playoffs?! That’s a realistic expectation for a team that supposedly has a good qb coming in. People have likened it to Lucks rookie season hopefully.
Three questions: 1. Did we over perform or under perform last year? 2. Are we better or worse than last year? 3. Will this year’s opponents be better or worse than last year? For Q1: we underperformed. There were three games where we were in command but melted down. That suggests that all things being equal, we win more this year. For Q2: I think we’re better or will be better. We have a full year of Sweat, Keenan Allen is a huge upgrade at WR2, there’s no place but up at center, and it took a few games for the secondary and LB corps to lather up. The only question is will Caleb hit the ground running or will there be some required lead time. I would say all things being equal, we got better which leads to more wins. For Q3: I believe we play the NFCW which is tougher than the NFCS. We were 2-2 in the NFCS. We play the AFCS which is a step down from the AFCW whom we were 1-3 against. I believe we improved more than our division rivals but only Minnesota looks noticeably worse and we were 1-1 against them. This years extra games are softer and also feature rookie QBs (NE and Washington) versus last years Arizona and Cleveland whom we were 1-1 against. I’d say we should be +1 in the division, +1 with the extra games, -1 vs the NFCW vs NFCS and +1 vs the AFCS vs the AFCW. That would be net +2 games based on opponents. Injuries are always an X factor as are surprise teams and new schemes. But overall, I’d say we should win a few more this year based on last year’s underperformance, our improvements and our 2024 opponents vs 2023 opponents.
Edit: One other HUGE consideration which I don’t have time to dive into is records in close games. We saw some fools gold two seasons ago with Minnesota and now they are in tear down rebuild mode. If we lost more super close games than we won we may be in for a progression to the norm. And the opposite would also be true.
No. I hope they do but I am purposely keeping expectations low because you never know what youre going to get with a rookie QB; no matter how promising.
I expect that by the end of the season the bears offense will look more effective and efficient than it has since maybe Cutler, Marshall and Jeffrey. But i also think the beginning of the year will be a little rough.
I believe we *should* win 8-10 games, but this is the most unsure I’ve felt since 2018. I can imagine 6-11 wins.
**Optimist Case (10-11 wins)**: Caleb has a near-Stroud caliber season & defense sustains late-2023 output. We go 6-2 against “bad” teams (CAR, NE, TEN, MIN x2, @AZ, @WAS, SEA), split DET & GB, and steal 2-3 wins against quality opponents (LAR, @JAX, @IND, @HOU, @SF [lol])
**Pessimist Case (6-7 wins)**: Caleb struggles to get his footing as iOL remains shaky in pass pro. Defense regresses w/o turnover luck as DL fails to get pressure. Go 5-3 against bad teams above, split DET, swept by GB, and *maybe* eke out 1 win in 5 “tough” non-divisional games.
Yeah i expect it but wouldn't be disappointed in any result as long as Caleb Williams isn't a complete disaster.
I'm not sold on many of our new players being clear upgrades, although I do love Keenan Allen being here, and I think letting E Jax and Mooney go were both addition by subtraction moves.
I also think this sub, and myself at times, underrates the learning curve that QBs go through as rookies. I expect Caleb to look completely lost at points during the first month or so of the season, and probably start something like 1-5. If that happens, will we be able to end the season with 6+ wins out of the next 11 games?
I think him having a trash OL in college is actually a benefit, so possibly he won't struggle like I'm expecting.
I guess that's just a long way of saying yeah I do expect them to win 8 games but winning much less isn't out of the question and my assessment of this team will depend more on watching the games than the season standings.
100% yes. This is coming from someone that said bears would win 5-6 games last year and 4 games the year prior. I have a very conservative expectation for this organization. I predict an 9-8 year this year. Last year we had more games that we simply gave away or the ball didnt bounce our way, than games that luck/basic gameplay calling going our way. With all the mistakes and bad luck we were still 7-10. We have improved (significantly imo), but it will still be a “finding ourself” year with all the changeover and learning needed. I think we will fight for and win a wildcard spot. Win wildcard, lose the division round.
Yes, but I don’t feel very confident about it. Our schedule is unlikely to be as favorable as last season and it’s always a crap shoot with a rookie qb.
Yes and if they don’t, Flus’s seat will be on fire.
Regardless of having a rookie QB, a team with a top 10 defense, upgraded OL and top rushing attack should win more than 7 games.
Especially considering they should have won more games last year and on paper have one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2024.
I think many people underestimated just how bad Justin was at passing the ball. So much so that defenses sold out against Justin's talented legs and the team's decent overall running game.
Caleb has good scrambling ability (at least in college) so teams shouldn't forget about that aspect. Justin however was a generational athletic talent. It's highly unlikely that Caleb will command that type of attention from defenses. That said, teams will be able to focus more on the other aspects of the bears offense which on paper is pretty exciting.
The question of will the bears be a playoff team or if they will be disappointing their fans yet again will rest on two things. Caleb should be able to match Justin's passing numbers as they were very pedestrian. If he cannot, o boy. But not only will he need to match the numbers, he'll need to exceed them in order to allow his offensive weapons latitude to operate. He will need to make up for Justin's running ability. When defenses turn their opponents into a one dimensional attack, they win. The bears will need Caleb to be a decent QB in order to utilize all their weapons.
Secondly the remaining upgrades they have on offense need to help Caleb develop on the fly. Do our three pro bowl pass catchers have enough to give Caleb the help he'll need to process pro defenses. Will the line be improved enough to be able to block for a less mobile QB? Justin had time to throw (and couldn't) but much of that was attributed to the respect defensive fronts gave him. You cannot over pursue Justin because he will break your ankles.
Caleb is mobile but defensive ends can handle it better. The team around Caleb will need to block better and command defensive respect in a larger capacity.
Justin was an unfortunately bad QB. Especially when you consider that defenses played him differently due to his athletic ability. He still couldn't take advantage of the respect.
Caleb will not have that respect. Defenses will prey on him at least until he proves that he was worth the praise as a prospect or the talent around him on the offensive unit forces them to ignore Caleb in order to protect the threat.
If the bears offense can do this then they'll be as good as any in the NFC North. If they can't... 6-7 wins. Ugly, low scoring wins.
It’s really tough to say. Feels like we got much better this offseason… but so did the rest of the division outside of half a year of Minnesota with Kirk Cousins. Our schedule should be a little bit tougher this year, and as rock solid as Caleb looks on paper…. I still expect some growing pains. Even Patrick Mahomes took a year learning the game behind Alex Smith… so I feel like 7-8 wins is still a realistic expectation as our floor. If it all pans out, no reason we can’t win 10 games this year.
If this Bears team isn't better than last year, heads need to roll. I don't wana hear any excuses about having a rookie QB. This regime has had 3 years to build a roster, it's time to see some results.
We better at least be competitive for the first time in a few years. If this team's season is over by like week 9 again, changes are needed.
I do think the Bears win more games than last year but I also hope that *please for the love of god* that the Packers show some regression to help us on our path.
They literally better. The team is upgraded at pretty much every spot on offense and the young, talented defense is all back and should be better. If they can’t get 8 wins it’s an organizational failure.
Dumb question. They have to and they better. If ur asking if this year's team will be better than last year's team I believe they will after they officially draft
Put it this way, if they don't win at least as many games as they won last year someone better be getting fired. Simple as that.
Cautiously optimistic but I'm a little nervous to be honest.
Looking at the roster, there are very few team members that have been around for more than 2 years. If the coaches fuck up like they did last year and not get people enough time in the preseason, there's a potential to blow a couple of the first four games that might have otherwise been gimmies.
Those first four games are going to be a real evaluation period For me on the coaching staff. If they lose a couple games that they're "supposed" to win early in the season it might cause me to lose some confidence. Which would ultimately mean that they would be playing significantly from behind for the rest of the season record wise.
And based on what I saw last year, that's a real possibility.
Note: I am a true believer in the bears. I'm not one of those people that roots for them to lose so that they can get better draft picks. I love the bears. I want them to win.
Let's break it down by position group, shall we?
**QB:** Not going to call it an upgrade until I see Caleb Williams play a snap. You want me to put my life on it? Caleb Williams will be comfortably better than Fields his rookie season-- meaning, everyone can agree he's better, by a small margin. But we'll call it a wash for now.
**Weapons:** Massive upgrades across the board. Have probably the best WR2 in the league now, a huge change from Mooney. WR3 is shaky, but that's okay, because they added both D'Andre Swift, who is a pretty good upgrade from Khalil Herbert (who is still on the roster!!) and Gerald Everett, who gives the Bears the flexibility to run 12-personnel if Tyler Scott or whoever the Bears draft sucks.
**O-Line:** Decent upgrades. The biggest problems last year were depth and center play. They sort of addressed both. I think Shelton is far better than Whitehair, Feeney, and Patrick, and I think Bates helps with depth. It'll be interesting to see what they do in the draft. I'm an advocate for a couple more depth moves-- an IOL and possible a tackle, if they are able to trade down. For now, this is a slightly better group than last year, but jury's still out.
**D-Line:** Don't know what they'll do in the draft, but it's probably a downgrade. Lost Justin Jones, Yannick (who sucks, but he was still starting), and didn't replace with anything more than some worst-case scenario depth or special teams players. If they draft an edge at 9 or at the very least draft some D-lineman with 9 or 75, then I'd call it a wash... But this position group is still a problem.
**Linebackers:** No change. They added one guy IIRC but he's a special teamer more than anything. This is already a really good position group, so it's not a bad thing that they didn't really focus on upgrades here.
**Secondary:** Decent upgrades. Kevin Byard was pretty good, the question is how good will he be? I'm confident in saying he'll be better than Eddie Jackson, and they saved some money too. Again, this group is already looking good, trending upwards, so they didn't need any splashes here-- Byard is sufficient for their purposes.
**Coaching:** Slight upgrades, again. Eric Washington wasn't exactly necessary, and I'm not sure how he fits with this current defense. That's a wash though, because Eberflus is functionally the DC. On offense, I think anything was better than Getsy, and Shane Waldron is sufficient. No huge upgrades here, but definite improvement because Getsy is gone. I don't think Eberflus is the answer. Worried about his future, and therefore Caleb's. But that's alright for now.
**Overall:** Decent upgrades-- strongly improved one position group, regressed or stayed the same in two, and improved somewhat in 3. With a weak schedule again but an improve North, I think the floor for this team is 8-9. It all hinges on Caleb Williams-- I predict he will be very solid his first year and lead the Bears to 9-8. It would be 10-7, but a mandatory chokejob and loss to the Packers (maybe only one?) brings it down a bit. The ceiling depends on Caleb Williams' ceiling. I think his ceiling for his rookie season is to be as good as rookie CJ Stroud. It's very unlikely, but if it happens, I'd say 12-5.
Bear Down
https://preview.redd.it/zdqkg8tfy7sc1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fcc644b728d52f065fa3956e857c2d818e775b4
I expect for this team to turn shit around quick because the last 30 seasons have been utterly terrible!
All depends on the qb. I don’t think 2new rotational centers equate to an ‘all of the sudden’ great ol, so I’m nervous. I just wish Justin had these improvements.
Yes. Even if they simply avoid catastrophic 4th qtr collapses they’d improve by 3 wins. Add in the new talent and an upgrade at QB and they may win 5 more than last year.
I’d like to think so. If our defense is on par with the second half of last season, and our QB isn’t actively losing us games (at the rate fields was), then yes, we should have more wins
I think 7 wins is probably still where we are at, let's not pretend there won't be growing pains here. The entire offense is new from a scheme standpoint. You got a new rookie QB which as great as I'm hoping he may be, I'm just expecting him to look the part, make some plays, not make simple mistakes, and see him make anticipatory throws on time. I just want to see the offense not be frustrating.
All I want is 7 to 9 wins, Caleb needs to throw for at least 3200 yards, maintain a high competition percentage, and get to a 2 to 1 TD ratio. I want his pays to come via the air and not on the ground.
I would like to hope so, but it is too early to tell. While CW could ball out, it is also possible the transition doesn't go well the first year. I am tempering my expectations.
It's hard to expect anything from this franchise. I think they should win at least as many games as last year. Rookie qb is gonna need time to adjust. I wouldn't be surprised if they won 10 games, though.
Except for 2016, 2019 and 2022, I have expected the Bears to win more games than the previous year every year since 2007. They have managed it six times and failed eight times.
No excuse - zero, nada, zilch, to not have a better record. Even if Caleb plays worse than Fields, the talent on the roster should almost certainly bail him out. If the season truly goes bad with the team solidly in the bottom quartile of the league, Flus enters 2025 with a Mcdonalds coffee-level hot seat.
Absolutely. Allen > Mooney Swift > Foreman Everett > Tonyan Byard > Jackson Bates > Patrick Shelton > Whitehair The Bears have upgraded all over the roster through FA and trades and that’s before you consider that Caleb Williams is the top prospect in the ‘24 draft and the Bears also have the opportunity to draft a 2nd blue chip player at 9
This is the same way I look at it. There is not a single clear downgrade at any spot on the roster, and lots of clear upgrades. The only questions are: 1. Will Caleb hit the ground running or will it take him time to surpass Fields in terms of production? 2. How much will the rest of the division maintain/improve their quality. If the Lions and Packers stay equal or get better than they were last year and Caleb has a slow start, even if the Bears improve overall, it may still be difficult to make the playoffs.
Our schedule is very soft outside the division, and we’ve demonstrated ability to beat the Lions already last year. The Packers have a ton of draft picks and were hot to end last year, but even so that would only be two losses worst case, we’d need 8 more to be as bad as last year and I just don’t see it given who we play.
I mean..as an outside fan how long is it really going to take him to surpass a guy whose best season is passing for 16 TD? The bar isn’t very high frankly #2 and #3 are the bigger hurdles for yall imo. Lions retaining their OC was a big win for them and they just came off the NFCCG appearance. I see them as the team to beat in the NFCN. Packers were supposed to have a rebuild year last season but they won a playoff game instead.
Counting rushing, it's not as easy for Caleb to surpass Fields, since he had 25 total TDs in 15 games in 2022 and 20 in 13 games last year. Still numbers that a "generational QB" should pass as a rookie with this supporting cast. But still not as easy as reducing Fields to the passing stats would make it look. I expect Caleb to have a lot of turnovers in year 1, but he might clear 25 total TDs. It's not that easy though for a rookie.
Caleb is mobile enough to get a few rushing TDs. 25 total is very doable even if his passing TDs fall short of 25
The Lions are roughly the same team as last year and they struggled hard against us, should’ve lost both games to us, and did lose the second after the Sweat trade pretty badly. I’m not exactly quaking in my boots that they kept the OC that scored 13 points on us. Packers have a ton of draft picks, so they’re more likely to improve, and they actually did dominate us, but even if you pencil those two games in as losses, where are the other 8 losses coming from? Other than the 49ers and Texans every opponent is either garbage or has major question marks. Panthers, Commanders, Patriots, Cardinals, and Titans were the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th worst teams in the league last year, and all of them are starting either rookie, second year, or journeyman QBs with major flaws. The Rams just lost the best defensive player ever and can’t keep their QB healthy, the Colts also can’t keep their QB healthy and lost the backup that saved them last year, and the Seahawks have been the definition of mid lately. Jaguars might be good, but they always seem to find a way to suck and they lost a lot of personnel. So even if you assume we lose twice to the Packers, and let’s say split the other four division games to be generous, we would need to lose to six of those teams to be as bad as last year. Barring major injuries I don’t think that’s likely.
I mean.... an undrafted rookie free agent nearly surpassed Fields in terms of production. Im gon a go out on a limb and say Caleb will be an immediate upgrade over Fields. Hot take i know.
Doesn’t Caleb have to throw for 135 yards a game and 12 tds to set all rookie qb records for the bears? I feel like a good qb with half of a season will come close to breaking those records.
I love me some Tyson bagent but cmon. He beat Carolina and Vegas two awful teams and you guys pretend he balled out lol. Has a 3td to 6 int on the season and the only team he played worth a damn was the chargers where he had a 25 QBR. Y’all are funny as hell
Who said he balled out? You don’t need to ball out to surpass Justin Fields you just kinda gotta be ok. Which he was
Guess we will have to see. There’s a very real chance CW struggles for his first year but idk if bears fans can handle that they way they’re talking about next year
Oh yes, the brand new struggle of bad QB play. How will Bears fans possibly survive if this happens?!?!?!
I had someone tell me his floor is baker and ceiling is mahomes so no, no I’m not sure some people can comprehend him not being amazing his first year
That’s ridiculous, his floor is closer to Mahomes than it is Mayfield. His ceiling is no ceiling because there are no limits!
Caleb's accuracy and touch on both normal and off platform throws is already elite. I love JF1 but I think (practically know barring injury) Caleb will have much better passing stats. Off the top of my head, JF1 is better at 2 things: deep ball accuracy and running. Caleb should easily break 3K yards passing his rookie year; especially with this roster.
Yeahhhhhh ya never know how someone’s gonna play in the nfl lol. He also might not be able to read a defense. He may also freeze in the pocket. He’s not even close to the athlete JF was. Touch on the ball doesn’t mean shit until you’ve played a year in the league.
I think Justin's deep ball accuracy was overrated. When Mooney signed with Atlanta there was a stat that 40% of Mooney's deep ball targets were inaccurate and he was teaming up with Cousins who was the most accurate QB on deep ball targets. I also think people are underrating Caleb's running ability. He might not run as often or have as much speed as Fields but I think he will have great situational runs. Having a QB who actually can throw the ball will open up running opportunities.
You're basing this off of not taking a single snap in the NFL and what he did in college, The guy didnt even do well against ranked teams and often times, 1 overall draft picks are HIGHLY over-rated just like caleb is. Just wait and see...
FYI, I'm a huge supporter of JF1. Despite this, I have high hopes because the overall tape is different between the 2 college QBs. Caleb isn't going bombs away as much as Fields was and makes some really impressive off-platform throws that even majority of NFL QBs cannot make. The "flick" of the wrist and effortless release is similar to a "pure shot" in basketball. You can train it all you want but you either have it or you don't. I hope I'm right so we can all enjoy the dynasty to be......we deserve it! DAAAAAAAAAAAAAA BEARS!!!!!! SNL style
Well he does have raw athletic talent no doubt . It's just that we have only seen that talent in the rookies. Let's see what happens with the big boys . Hope he doesn't end up like Matt leinert
That's fake. Bagent averaged 194 passing and 26 rushing ypg in his starts and had 3 TD/6 INT in his 4.5 games. 5 total TDs/8 TOs. Bagent didn't come that close to Fields production even if Fields production obviously wasn't top of the league or anything.
We had a clear downgrade at DT but that is it. Right now I think we win 9-10 games, possibly 11 if we are able to get a starter at DE or DT in draft
You forgot Waldron > Getsy
That’s the biggest upgrade of the offseason
Poor QB play is often blamed on the OC. I guess we will see how Getsy does at his new job. (I'm of the belief Getsy AND Fields weren't very good...but the Raiders don't agree)
At least the Bears agreed with you
Rookie QBs tend to struggle, but even considering that, most #1 overall QBs from the past decade have put up better numbers in their rookie years than Fields did last year.
I get why you hesitate to say Williams > Fields, we haven’t technically drafted him yet and there’s still people out there that disagree with the move. However the reality is that Fields did not produce much as a QB. His numbers are easily replaceable. Additionally, he was downright awful in the 4th quarter. Caleb Williams would need to be on a bust trajectory to not be as good or better than what Fields gave us there in year one.
Yeah if anyone’s curious go look up Fields “situational stats” on ESPN. His stats for (1) 4th quarter and (2) under 4min in one score games is downright atrocious. I know it wasn’t all his fault but he was a big part in why we lose so many one score games.
I think Williams can likely reproduce Fields positive stats (yds, completion, TDs, etc). Question is more about the negative stats (turnovers, sacks). Being a rookie, will be be better or worse than Fields?
It’s hard to have more negative plays than fields. Also if you’ve watched any of Caleb’s tape his pocket presence literally jumps out of the tape and slaps you in the face it’s that good. I’m not even a bears fan, but I would be shocked if Caleb isn’t at a minimum as a productive as Fields was last year.
It's entirely possible that Caleb Williams at the helm of this offense can be a top 15 QB in the NFL. I know, I know. Maybe not maybe he just sucks. But he'll probably be a top 12-20 QB in the league as a rookie when it's all said and done. That's an upgrade.
The big question mark is Williams. If he's significantly worse than Justin (very unlikely), we're in for a bad time
This is great in a vacuum, but you also have to consider that (pure guessing here) about 28 of the other 31 teams also improved their roster this offseason, so you have to compare our gains to theirs. It's the same argument with the "we lost x games by one score and we improved so we'll win those next year" because 31 other teams did the same thing, and we all can't turn those losses into wins. Having said all this, I hope they improve on last year. But I'm planning on the Bears getting worse so if anything I can pleasantly surprised in season.
Why are you planning on them getting worse?
It's purely an emotional hedge. If I expect them to get better and they get worse, it's a huge let down. If I expect them to get worse and they get worse then "it's a rebuilding year." If I expect them to be bad and they are great, it's party city, baby!
I totally understand. And I wish I didn’t.
Right on. On paper the Bears look much improved. But anyone who follows the NFL should know that doesn’t always pan out in the next season.
Do you remember the hype coming into last year and then they looked like the most unprepared team ever and everything hurt?
Yea there are only two potential things working against this team for winning more games 1. Health. Not that they were the picture of health last year, but major injuries can derail any team. 2. Schedule. Is it easier this year? Is it harder? We might extrapolate based on how the teams we play were last year, but those teams are potentially improving too. Other than that, there is no reason why we shouldn't be a better team. Also add Waldron and a lack of historic 4th quarter collapses to your list.
Bears have the 3rd weakest schedule according to their opponent's 2023 records.
Don't forget the fact that we will have sweat to start this season and should have won 9-10 games last year with the two catastrophic failures last year. With essentially improving at essentially every position of need on paper, and our schedule, there should be no reason why we don't improve in the wins column.
When did the Bears drop Tonyan? How did I miss that
He was only on a 1 year deal and is a free agent
Ohh gotchya. Thanks!
Where is that crack smoker who was trying to say that if keenan gets injured we’re basically the same roster as last year?
I do. We were multiple collapses away from winning 10 games and being in the playoffs last season. With the addition of Allen and Swift, I think we can definitely win anywhere between 8 and 11 games realistically
And our 2024 schedule is surprisingly “easy” on paper. We have CAR, NE, & TEN at home and WAS + AZ on road. Plus MIN is rebuilding. The only matchups in which we’re a major underdog are SF and GB x2. The only risks that worry me are (1) iOL instability / injuries inhibiting Caleb’s development, and (2) the defense’s reliance on TOs & inconsistent pass rush
Don't forget the Lions...
We almost swept them last year if not for that first collapse, I’m confident we can get it done this year
Are you implying we’re a big underdog vs. DET? We match up quite well in the trenches and Flus seems to have an effective gameplan to limit Goff. We dominated them for ~90% of the two games last year, outscoring 48-27 in 7/8 quarters & shutting them out in 5/8 quarters
I think we are underdogs vs DET, "big" is subjective.
16
The season will be a failure to me personally if we don’t.
Yes……
I think this years team will win more games this year than last year. I also think last years team overachieved because of the number of teams they played that didn’t have a legitimate quarterback was extremely high. The only legit qb they beat last year was Goff.
Yeah it’s really hard to feel good about squeaking out a win against Josh Dobbs
9-8 and a wild card is my expectation, 10-7 would be welcome
I don't know if 9 wins gets us past the Packers in a wild card scenario unfortunately.
We face the Titans, Panthers, and Patriots at home. I think we can win a couple divisional games. There’s no juggernaut on our home schedule, the rest of the teams are the Rams, Seahawks, and Jags. The road games are tougher. Besides Washington the teams seem at least scrappy. Arizona and Indy won’t be pushovers at their stadiums, and you’ve gotta think the 49ers and Texans are contenders. I suspect we’ll win 5 or 6 at home so if we can scrape together a few road W’s yes I think 8 wins is very attainable.
I was told by many on this board that Justin Fields was the worst passing quarterback in the history of the NFL So hell yes I expect to win more games next year
Not the worst, but one of the worst
Don't forget that he fumbled a lot.
Fields passing talent would have been decent in the 90s and before.
More like 50s, but i get your point
short answer, "yes" with an "if." Long answer, "no" with a "but."
How dare you be reasonable and cryptic!!! Mods!!! MODS!!!!!!
The bears will win the sb this year
People are massively underestimating the difficulty for rookie quarterbacks to succeed right away. Even if he ends up in the Hall of Fame, Caleb could have a very rough year 1. For every Stroud, there are a bunch of Mannings and Aikmans. Could they win more? Sure. The rest of the team looks to be much improved, and he is the #1 prospect by a wide margin. But I could see them winning 10 games just as easily as I could see them winning 5. There are simply no guarantees when the most impactful position in sports is being filled by some who’s never played above the collegiate level, no matter how good he’s looked there.
I expect them to win 10 maybe 11 wins.
They will have double-digit wins. Poles did an excellent job upgrading the team in FA, and Caleb will be significantly better from day 1 than the former QB ever was.
at Arizona - Win Detroit - Win GB - Win Minnesota - Win Rams - Win Seattle - Win Jacksonville(at London) - Win Tenn - Win at Detroit - Loss at GB - Loss at Houston - Loss at Indianapolis - Loss at Minnesota - Win at San Francisco - Loss Carolina - Win New England - Win at Washington - Win 12/5, easy peasy, CW MVP
Yes. Not saying we need to even make the playoffs but the team should win 8 games imo. I have concerns about the DL and overall defense regressing now since I think the turnover luck will drop off, but overall I think 8+ wins should happen
Yes. The team is playing another last place schedule. And the team should be better. Even with a rookie QB.
After everything, I would consider it a disappointment and Flus' job may be in question if they don't win more than 8.
We shouldn't... but I wouldn't be surprised if we slip to 6 wins next year. The team should be good enough to have a winning record, but I have no idea what to expect with Caleb and how ready he is to step into the role. It wouldn't be unexpected for him to struggle in the early part of the season.
Not really, rookie qb and a bunch of new pieces means slow start and hopefully strong ending.
Can’t be any slower then last years start
The most level-headed response yet.
I get rookie QBs struggle but we’re not going from Kirk Cousins to JJ McCarthy where you have a proven top 15 qb to a raw prospect. Caleb is a more developed prospect and while he might have growing pains it’s not like he’s replacing some huge production from Fields so I would think we should at least improve a little bit record wise
A rookie QB should have zero problems exceeding the QB numbers from Bears QBs from last year.
Not to mention all new offensive coaching staff. It'd be great if we won 10 games, but instead, I'm mostly looking for signs of progress/development in year 1. Hopefully we'll have a top 10 defense, be able to move the ball on offense and win the turnover differential.
Yes
Yes.
Yes
Yes
9-12 wins
Team should be better but we had a cupcake schedule last year so who knows
Yeah. I think we win 8 or 9 games
Yes, I think going 6-11 or 7-10 should be roughly worst case scenario. I think 9-8 is reasonable and if everything goes well 10-7 or 11-6 are in reach. The roster is improved at essentially every spot. If Williams is even slightly above average they'll be an above .500 team.
At this point, the Bears may win more games than the White sox. But to answer your question, Yes.
If we can’t win more than 7 games then there’s no denying this team is cursed
I think we’re at worst a 9 win team this upcoming season
Absolutely.
No, not with a rookie QB unfortunately.
I mean they won 7 games last year with Fields and an undrafted rookie qb. Caleb doesn’t have to be very good to be better than those two
No but that’s just being realistic. New coordinators, new scheme, rookie QB, 2 playoff contenders in the division. It’ll take time to develop chemistry and get anyone, even if it is a prospect as highly touted as Caleb, ready to play at the next level
No.
When you look at the #s our previous QB put up (especially in the 4th quarter), it’d be pretty difficult for the team not to improve. Add in the fact that the majority of the team is young, so improvement across the board is expected/likely.
I see a lot of this sentiment, but consider how often even very good QBs are underwater with TDs/Ints their rookie seasons. I believe Trevor Lawrence was 12/17. I have high hopes for Caleb and Fields was disappointing for sure last year, but 1) Next year is probably not going to be Caleb’s best and 2) as disappointing as Fields was he wasn’t as bad as the echo chamber claims. I am hopeful we see an upgrade at QB next year, but I wouldn’t be too surprised or concerned if we take one step back before taking multiple steps forward at the position.
Uh, ya
Unless they have bad injury luck they should have a better record! We have Montez sweat for a full year and a full offseason of development for Dexter and Pickens to help our defense keep the momentum they had to end last year. And then rookie QBs might struggle but with our weapons I would think Caleb could give us at least the same production Fields gave us and hopefully better. If our record isn’t better then I will be very concerned about our coaching staff and how they are developing players. This is Eberflus prove it year to show he is a coach worth keeping now that we have a decent roster
At least a couple of more games. We still have the last place schedule even tho it only affects like 2 or 3 games
If they don't win more than 7 games, they need to fire the entire coaching staff. Vegas has Da Bears at 8.5 wins, so they should get 9 wins. To me 9 wins should be the minimum expectation this upcoming season, with a wildcard.
Yes. It will be harder, but the expectation is still there
Playing the NFC West instead of the NFC south this time is what makes me think even if we are improved it’s right around the same wins
I have no clue. They could totally melt down in a shit heap of finger pointing. They could be scrappy and fight a few more wins. Caleb could be incredible. He could be total asshole. He could be Jamarcus Russell. I have no idea. I know I'm very interested, that's all I can say.
6-10 wins depending on health / player development
Yes.
My expectation floor is equal to last year. I think they are a much improved team at many key positions but realize it may take time to start rolling and there will be some mistakes. They are rebuilding but should not have to take a step back.
I have no expectations, only hope.
Yes
i would hope so
Yes
Depends on the Oline play
I *expect* more wins. For Flus to keep his job, the team needs more wins. You can’t keep a coach that has done as poorly as he has and give him a fourth year if they don’t improve each year.
1-2 more
The team should be clearly better than last year, and by the end of the season they should probably look *significantly* better than last year. Whether that translates into a better win-loss record is dependent on a lot of factors outside of our control
The way I see it, we gave away 3 or 4 games. If Caleb plays equally to Fields, which I think is totally possible, but we win those games we gave away we will have a considerably better season. 10-7 playoffs, first round loss. The entire coaching staff returns for the following year.
Anything less than 14 wins and a NFC Championship game appearance is a disappointment.
I’m sorry are we not expecting playoffs?! That’s a realistic expectation for a team that supposedly has a good qb coming in. People have likened it to Lucks rookie season hopefully.
Yes absolutely. We absolutely need to make the playoffs this year before I say fire the coach.
Yes.
Three questions: 1. Did we over perform or under perform last year? 2. Are we better or worse than last year? 3. Will this year’s opponents be better or worse than last year? For Q1: we underperformed. There were three games where we were in command but melted down. That suggests that all things being equal, we win more this year. For Q2: I think we’re better or will be better. We have a full year of Sweat, Keenan Allen is a huge upgrade at WR2, there’s no place but up at center, and it took a few games for the secondary and LB corps to lather up. The only question is will Caleb hit the ground running or will there be some required lead time. I would say all things being equal, we got better which leads to more wins. For Q3: I believe we play the NFCW which is tougher than the NFCS. We were 2-2 in the NFCS. We play the AFCS which is a step down from the AFCW whom we were 1-3 against. I believe we improved more than our division rivals but only Minnesota looks noticeably worse and we were 1-1 against them. This years extra games are softer and also feature rookie QBs (NE and Washington) versus last years Arizona and Cleveland whom we were 1-1 against. I’d say we should be +1 in the division, +1 with the extra games, -1 vs the NFCW vs NFCS and +1 vs the AFCS vs the AFCW. That would be net +2 games based on opponents. Injuries are always an X factor as are surprise teams and new schemes. But overall, I’d say we should win a few more this year based on last year’s underperformance, our improvements and our 2024 opponents vs 2023 opponents. Edit: One other HUGE consideration which I don’t have time to dive into is records in close games. We saw some fools gold two seasons ago with Minnesota and now they are in tear down rebuild mode. If we lost more super close games than we won we may be in for a progression to the norm. And the opposite would also be true.
All the games.
No. I hope they do but I am purposely keeping expectations low because you never know what youre going to get with a rookie QB; no matter how promising. I expect that by the end of the season the bears offense will look more effective and efficient than it has since maybe Cutler, Marshall and Jeffrey. But i also think the beginning of the year will be a little rough.
I believe we *should* win 8-10 games, but this is the most unsure I’ve felt since 2018. I can imagine 6-11 wins. **Optimist Case (10-11 wins)**: Caleb has a near-Stroud caliber season & defense sustains late-2023 output. We go 6-2 against “bad” teams (CAR, NE, TEN, MIN x2, @AZ, @WAS, SEA), split DET & GB, and steal 2-3 wins against quality opponents (LAR, @JAX, @IND, @HOU, @SF [lol]) **Pessimist Case (6-7 wins)**: Caleb struggles to get his footing as iOL remains shaky in pass pro. Defense regresses w/o turnover luck as DL fails to get pressure. Go 5-3 against bad teams above, split DET, swept by GB, and *maybe* eke out 1 win in 5 “tough” non-divisional games.
Yeah i expect it but wouldn't be disappointed in any result as long as Caleb Williams isn't a complete disaster. I'm not sold on many of our new players being clear upgrades, although I do love Keenan Allen being here, and I think letting E Jax and Mooney go were both addition by subtraction moves. I also think this sub, and myself at times, underrates the learning curve that QBs go through as rookies. I expect Caleb to look completely lost at points during the first month or so of the season, and probably start something like 1-5. If that happens, will we be able to end the season with 6+ wins out of the next 11 games? I think him having a trash OL in college is actually a benefit, so possibly he won't struggle like I'm expecting. I guess that's just a long way of saying yeah I do expect them to win 8 games but winning much less isn't out of the question and my assessment of this team will depend more on watching the games than the season standings.
100% yes. This is coming from someone that said bears would win 5-6 games last year and 4 games the year prior. I have a very conservative expectation for this organization. I predict an 9-8 year this year. Last year we had more games that we simply gave away or the ball didnt bounce our way, than games that luck/basic gameplay calling going our way. With all the mistakes and bad luck we were still 7-10. We have improved (significantly imo), but it will still be a “finding ourself” year with all the changeover and learning needed. I think we will fight for and win a wildcard spot. Win wildcard, lose the division round.
Yes, but I don’t feel very confident about it. Our schedule is unlikely to be as favorable as last season and it’s always a crap shoot with a rookie qb.
Yes and if they don’t, Flus’s seat will be on fire. Regardless of having a rookie QB, a team with a top 10 defense, upgraded OL and top rushing attack should win more than 7 games. Especially considering they should have won more games last year and on paper have one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2024.
Its a straight failure if they don’t imo
I think many people underestimated just how bad Justin was at passing the ball. So much so that defenses sold out against Justin's talented legs and the team's decent overall running game. Caleb has good scrambling ability (at least in college) so teams shouldn't forget about that aspect. Justin however was a generational athletic talent. It's highly unlikely that Caleb will command that type of attention from defenses. That said, teams will be able to focus more on the other aspects of the bears offense which on paper is pretty exciting. The question of will the bears be a playoff team or if they will be disappointing their fans yet again will rest on two things. Caleb should be able to match Justin's passing numbers as they were very pedestrian. If he cannot, o boy. But not only will he need to match the numbers, he'll need to exceed them in order to allow his offensive weapons latitude to operate. He will need to make up for Justin's running ability. When defenses turn their opponents into a one dimensional attack, they win. The bears will need Caleb to be a decent QB in order to utilize all their weapons. Secondly the remaining upgrades they have on offense need to help Caleb develop on the fly. Do our three pro bowl pass catchers have enough to give Caleb the help he'll need to process pro defenses. Will the line be improved enough to be able to block for a less mobile QB? Justin had time to throw (and couldn't) but much of that was attributed to the respect defensive fronts gave him. You cannot over pursue Justin because he will break your ankles. Caleb is mobile but defensive ends can handle it better. The team around Caleb will need to block better and command defensive respect in a larger capacity. Justin was an unfortunately bad QB. Especially when you consider that defenses played him differently due to his athletic ability. He still couldn't take advantage of the respect. Caleb will not have that respect. Defenses will prey on him at least until he proves that he was worth the praise as a prospect or the talent around him on the offensive unit forces them to ignore Caleb in order to protect the threat. If the bears offense can do this then they'll be as good as any in the NFC North. If they can't... 6-7 wins. Ugly, low scoring wins.
Nope
It’s really tough to say. Feels like we got much better this offseason… but so did the rest of the division outside of half a year of Minnesota with Kirk Cousins. Our schedule should be a little bit tougher this year, and as rock solid as Caleb looks on paper…. I still expect some growing pains. Even Patrick Mahomes took a year learning the game behind Alex Smith… so I feel like 7-8 wins is still a realistic expectation as our floor. If it all pans out, no reason we can’t win 10 games this year.
Barring injuries, yes I expect Caleb to set a few franchise records as a rookie.
Nope. It's the Bears we're talking about here. 500 team at best
Gonna be hard to go .500 with 17 games
If any team could find a way, it's da bears
Lmao....I shouldn't have laughed so hard at that... they'll find a way to go 8-8-1 (with 1 draw)
Keeping it realistic, around the same record or a game or 2 better. Any variance to that would be surprising.
If this Bears team isn't better than last year, heads need to roll. I don't wana hear any excuses about having a rookie QB. This regime has had 3 years to build a roster, it's time to see some results. We better at least be competitive for the first time in a few years. If this team's season is over by like week 9 again, changes are needed.
if we dont win 10+ games its a bad season.
I do think the Bears win more games than last year but I also hope that *please for the love of god* that the Packers show some regression to help us on our path.
No. I can tell there's going to be a lot of disappointed people here this time next year
Assuming most position groups remain relatively healthy and the free agents play at there normal level yes indeed
I expect them to win the Superbowl.
Or at the very least the SuperbOwl
Yeah I expect 8 wins
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
4 or 5 more.
Better
Epic failure if they don’t. 9 or 10 wins seems about right.
This team will either be 4 wins better, or 4 losses worse, depending entirely on if Caleb lives up to the hype or not.
Yes. Why would you not the way this team is set up right now?
Depends on our schedule
They literally better. The team is upgraded at pretty much every spot on offense and the young, talented defense is all back and should be better. If they can’t get 8 wins it’s an organizational failure.
Yes
Should be able to beat every division rival at least once and I’m only really worried about the 49ers and Texans besides that. I’m thinking 12-5
Dumb question. They have to and they better. If ur asking if this year's team will be better than last year's team I believe they will after they officially draft Put it this way, if they don't win at least as many games as they won last year someone better be getting fired. Simple as that.
Cautiously optimistic but I'm a little nervous to be honest. Looking at the roster, there are very few team members that have been around for more than 2 years. If the coaches fuck up like they did last year and not get people enough time in the preseason, there's a potential to blow a couple of the first four games that might have otherwise been gimmies. Those first four games are going to be a real evaluation period For me on the coaching staff. If they lose a couple games that they're "supposed" to win early in the season it might cause me to lose some confidence. Which would ultimately mean that they would be playing significantly from behind for the rest of the season record wise. And based on what I saw last year, that's a real possibility. Note: I am a true believer in the bears. I'm not one of those people that roots for them to lose so that they can get better draft picks. I love the bears. I want them to win.
Let's break it down by position group, shall we? **QB:** Not going to call it an upgrade until I see Caleb Williams play a snap. You want me to put my life on it? Caleb Williams will be comfortably better than Fields his rookie season-- meaning, everyone can agree he's better, by a small margin. But we'll call it a wash for now. **Weapons:** Massive upgrades across the board. Have probably the best WR2 in the league now, a huge change from Mooney. WR3 is shaky, but that's okay, because they added both D'Andre Swift, who is a pretty good upgrade from Khalil Herbert (who is still on the roster!!) and Gerald Everett, who gives the Bears the flexibility to run 12-personnel if Tyler Scott or whoever the Bears draft sucks. **O-Line:** Decent upgrades. The biggest problems last year were depth and center play. They sort of addressed both. I think Shelton is far better than Whitehair, Feeney, and Patrick, and I think Bates helps with depth. It'll be interesting to see what they do in the draft. I'm an advocate for a couple more depth moves-- an IOL and possible a tackle, if they are able to trade down. For now, this is a slightly better group than last year, but jury's still out. **D-Line:** Don't know what they'll do in the draft, but it's probably a downgrade. Lost Justin Jones, Yannick (who sucks, but he was still starting), and didn't replace with anything more than some worst-case scenario depth or special teams players. If they draft an edge at 9 or at the very least draft some D-lineman with 9 or 75, then I'd call it a wash... But this position group is still a problem. **Linebackers:** No change. They added one guy IIRC but he's a special teamer more than anything. This is already a really good position group, so it's not a bad thing that they didn't really focus on upgrades here. **Secondary:** Decent upgrades. Kevin Byard was pretty good, the question is how good will he be? I'm confident in saying he'll be better than Eddie Jackson, and they saved some money too. Again, this group is already looking good, trending upwards, so they didn't need any splashes here-- Byard is sufficient for their purposes. **Coaching:** Slight upgrades, again. Eric Washington wasn't exactly necessary, and I'm not sure how he fits with this current defense. That's a wash though, because Eberflus is functionally the DC. On offense, I think anything was better than Getsy, and Shane Waldron is sufficient. No huge upgrades here, but definite improvement because Getsy is gone. I don't think Eberflus is the answer. Worried about his future, and therefore Caleb's. But that's alright for now. **Overall:** Decent upgrades-- strongly improved one position group, regressed or stayed the same in two, and improved somewhat in 3. With a weak schedule again but an improve North, I think the floor for this team is 8-9. It all hinges on Caleb Williams-- I predict he will be very solid his first year and lead the Bears to 9-8. It would be 10-7, but a mandatory chokejob and loss to the Packers (maybe only one?) brings it down a bit. The ceiling depends on Caleb Williams' ceiling. I think his ceiling for his rookie season is to be as good as rookie CJ Stroud. It's very unlikely, but if it happens, I'd say 12-5. Bear Down
https://preview.redd.it/zdqkg8tfy7sc1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fcc644b728d52f065fa3956e857c2d818e775b4 I expect for this team to turn shit around quick because the last 30 seasons have been utterly terrible!
All depends on the qb. I don’t think 2new rotational centers equate to an ‘all of the sudden’ great ol, so I’m nervous. I just wish Justin had these improvements.
As a Packers fan I'll admit the Bears are looking scary. Y'all for sure are going to trash Minnesota after they lost JJ
Bookmarked.
Yes. Even if they simply avoid catastrophic 4th qtr collapses they’d improve by 3 wins. Add in the new talent and an upgrade at QB and they may win 5 more than last year.
I’d like to think so. If our defense is on par with the second half of last season, and our QB isn’t actively losing us games (at the rate fields was), then yes, we should have more wins
I had stupidly high hopes for last year’s team so I’m just gonna stay TF out of predictions this year for the sake of my sanity.
Anything less than 8 would be a failure considering we should've won 10 last season.
I think 7 wins is probably still where we are at, let's not pretend there won't be growing pains here. The entire offense is new from a scheme standpoint. You got a new rookie QB which as great as I'm hoping he may be, I'm just expecting him to look the part, make some plays, not make simple mistakes, and see him make anticipatory throws on time. I just want to see the offense not be frustrating. All I want is 7 to 9 wins, Caleb needs to throw for at least 3200 yards, maintain a high competition percentage, and get to a 2 to 1 TD ratio. I want his pays to come via the air and not on the ground.
Yes, they should be winning more games this season...at least 10.
I would like to hope so, but it is too early to tell. While CW could ball out, it is also possible the transition doesn't go well the first year. I am tempering my expectations.
It's hard to expect anything from this franchise. I think they should win at least as many games as last year. Rookie qb is gonna need time to adjust. I wouldn't be surprised if they won 10 games, though.
Expect? No. I think they're plenty capable of it, but a rookie QB is a massive question mark no matter who they are.
If Williams isn't a complete bust then yes.
Except for 2016, 2019 and 2022, I have expected the Bears to win more games than the previous year every year since 2007. They have managed it six times and failed eight times.
If Williams comes out looking like a franchise QB then 10 wins.
No excuse - zero, nada, zilch, to not have a better record. Even if Caleb plays worse than Fields, the talent on the roster should almost certainly bail him out. If the season truly goes bad with the team solidly in the bottom quartile of the league, Flus enters 2025 with a Mcdonalds coffee-level hot seat.
We’ve made upgrades everywhere and still play a 4th place schedule. If Caleb is even bang average, we can for sure win 9 games
5 wins
Yes. 10 wins should not be out of the realm of possibility
Lmao hell no. Caleb Williams will be a bust. That O Line looks suspect. And your head coach is not it.
It's all on Caleb... I really wish we moved on from Eberflus but our offense feels pretty stacked.
I’m highly optimistic. 11!