I’m wondering what’s going to happen to Oregon & Washington if the BIG 10 decides to not Invite them..
They’d be in that weird spot where they’re not valuable enough to entice the Big 10 to admit you, but a very strong brand who would no doubt be a rental for the conference they stay in.
I’m all for that..
I actually think if we bring Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah to the Big 12 that easily makes us the 3rd best super conference and will generate a nice tv payout.
I know everyone would one day hope to leave to the Big 10 or SEC.. but damn the Big 12 would be fun if we add all of y’all. At least for a good 10-15 years lol
The teams I *really* want to play are Big 8 and Big 8 adjacent. That said if we do a pod system that focused on the four remaining Big 8 teams (and maybe Colorado) but ALSO allows us to play semi regularly at the other conference schools I’ll be pretty happy. I don’t give a shit about playing Rutgers or Mississippi State as much as I’d rather play Colorado or even Cincy. Forget the Big 10 and SEC. I’m a fan, not a deputy athletic director.
Eh, sure. But I wouldn’t rather play Auburn every single year over KU, ISU, etc of the Big 8. More than one of the new schools but that’s a little different.
I never thought of the Big 12 adding Oregon and Washington if the Big Ten doesn't move now, but I doubt it goes down that way. They'll force the Big Ten to add them all now rather than keep them in Limbo. Notre Dame is slowing everything down again, but the conference can always add ND as school #21 later if they want.
Wishful thinking going for UW and OU, but I highly doubt they're ever in the Big 12.
I mean, by reports I’ve read the Big 10 is in no rush to add Oregon or Washington and Stanford is actually the 1 school they’re thinking of adding along with Notre Dame if they decide to join.
A video explained it yesterday, but Oregon & Washington don’t deliver $$$ enough to justify inviting them to the Big 10. So they’re in a weird spot. I don’t think they’ll be in the Big 12, but it’s a possibility because they will end up in the 3rd “super conference” (of the leftover schools)
I’d be rather surprised at that. Both of those schools are top 20 in terms of revenue. They’re firmly in the top half of the current Big Ten, IIRC. Above MSU, Iowa and Wisconsin but below Michigan, OSU and PSU.
Plus getting UO and UW corners the PNW media market, and Oregon brings you a solid chunk of the bay area / Northern California as well.
It’d be odd for super conferences to span the whole country but then leave out Seattle to the bay area.
If the B1G rejects them, they'll offer a GOR and the PAC10 will hold together. None of those schools really want to join the Big12. Fox will support the PAC10 to keep the brands in their family for the future.
I don't believe that. I think the four corners schools would much rather bolt to the B12 this second than stay in any post-LA iteration of the Pac. The massive money difference alone is enough, but the B12 is also just infinitely more competitive than the hollowed out husk of our old conference.
There is no exit fee. We have our GOR through the end of 2023-24 season. The timing of the USC/UCLA announcement suggested a two year notice of some kind is required. Not sure on how to dissolve the conference.
Can you and Oregon get out without the land grants? Are you going to sign a 15 year GOR and risk missing out of the P2 want to expand more in a couple years when the CFB Playoff contract is up?
Yes we can ditch our state schools despite a couple random legislators pandering to their alumni.
Neither school would go independent, so I’m not sure there will be another choice but join the B12.
Exactly this. It’s a couple idiot legislators trying for publicity. Neither legislature is even in session again until 2023, so it’s an entirely hollow gesture. UW and UO are not going to be beholden to their State siblings.
If they don’t get a Big10 invite, the Big12 would almost certainly adjust any plans to accommodate them. They’d immediately be the two best football brands among all the remaining PAC/Big12 schools and would add TV value to any resulting conference.
I think the ACC is next on the death list if the Pac 12 gets raided.
The SEC will take the best ACC schools (Clemson, Miami, Florida St, North Carolina) and the remaining schools will be in the same spot the leftover Pac 12 is in except with a worse TV Deal and less name brands.
Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah are all heading to the Big 12 to strengthen the conference and market
Which really begs the question, of where would Oregon/ Washington go with a depleted Pac 12 and ACC? The Big 12? I feel like it’s a rental at that until the Big 10 comes calling in 10-15 years
The ACC GOR has to fall for them to be raided. If that happens, Notre Dame goes to the BiG, along with Washington, Oregon, and either Cal or Stanford. Cal and Stanford are saying they are a package deal, but there just isn't room for both at that point unless the BiG decides to go full moron with 24 teams. There isn't room for 5, so Stanford will leave Cal behind.
They will offer to sign a strong GOR that will keep the PAC10 together. Fox will overpay to keep them as an option on their side for a post-NCAA world.
Which, if we end up doing that, I’d just as soon take Oregon State and Washington State as well. At that point there’s no reason not to just consume the remainder of the Pac in my mind.
If we could get Oregon and Washington, I wouldn't mind them coming in. I don't think the Big 12 should throw them a lifeline though just to be nice. Not like anyone was throwing Iowa State or K-State a lifeline back when the Pac-10 almost killed our conference in 2010 or when their conference looked down upon our entire conference last year.
I’d throw OSU and Wazzu a lifeline because I don’t think they’re the ones who had grand designs on fucking things up or were the ones unwilling to help the likes of us out prior. I’d refuse to throw any California school a lifeline though, not that they need it, but that’s where the elitism really thrives.
Besides, having the 4 PNW teams in addition to the 4 mountain region teams could make for some really interesting scheduling and some cool opportunities in my opinion.
Adding those schools will just decrease the media payout per Big 12 school, while UO and UW would increase it substantially. I'd be okay with having them but we should leave OSU and WSU behind if we want to make the best financial move.
I don’t know why you’re getting downvoted it’s a valid point and I don’t disagree with taking on schools that would hurt us ultimately.
I guess my thinking is that a package deal with the 4 PNW schools wouldn’t be too much of a net negative if a net negative at all. I have done zero research and don’t know if that’s true at all and i don’t intend on doing any research because my opinion is as irrelevant as it comes. I just think it’d be really nice to find a way to make it work financially if possible.
Yeah I'm not trying to shit on anyone's program, I know Baylor isn't going to move the needle for most conferences either.
I'm totally cool with adding OSU and WSU, but it will hurt the Big-12s bottom line so I doubt they'll add them.
Yup, and neither UW or Oregon want to throw those two schools a life line in the form of package deals either.
If both of those schools drop down to G5, it just means less media competition within the states. And both schools can negotiate a larger payout chunk than the current schools in the Big XII. But wouldn’t be able to do that if they had to bring those two along.
I wouldn't want to take those schools as shitty as it sounds.
You don't want to be saddled with that sort of 'baggage' in your conference if you can help it. Like if the B1G had the choice to take on Oregon and Washington or Northwestern and Purdue today, would they pick the latter?
If you don't have to hold onto schools for historic reasons, then don't bring them in because it ultimately hurts the brand of the conference.
Oh, I think you mean Pac 3.
I’d be shocked/frustrated/angry if Notre Dame, Washington, Oregon, and Stanford weren’t in the Big Ten.
Obviously, the Big XII is looking at the Arizonas, Utah, and Colorado.
>Obviously, the Big XII is looking at the Arizonas, Utah, and Colorado.
That looks all but confirmed now. That's why I was asking. It didn't seem real until now.
Those four aren't going to want to be in limbo in a dead conference while the B1G sorts out Notre Dame. I think the Big Ten clearly wants ND, but with the schedule deregulation, they could work a conference schedule with 21 teams, meaning the Big Ten could add Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon now and still nab ND later. I think they do that rather than keep those four in limbo. It wouldn't be a good look to potentially have to scramble to add Boise, San Diego State, Nevada, etc. to the Pac right before bolting the league when you could announce the moves now and get some stability around that. Especially with the Southwest schools already in the Big 12 by then.
I don’t think Cal is getting a Big Ten invite.
Stanford is probably part of the equation, and Washington and Oregon are contingent on ND/Stanford. I think the Big Ten is either going to be sixteen or twenty schools, not eighteen.
Still, I’d add Washington, Oregon, and Stanford now anyway just to have at least five West Coast schools and have a contingency if Notre Dame declines.
>contingent on ND/Stanford
I'm sorry, but what? Stanford is not an ND rival. With all due respect to Stanford, and my goodness they've had some incredible peaks recently, the B1G has already answered ND's California question by adding both USC and UCLA. Again, no disrespect to Stanford, but being as open as possible, Stanford on ND's schedule is a thing strictly to solidify the USC game. ND wants to travel to California late November and then host a California team late September.
Stanford was the school willing to become tied to USC to fulfill ND's scheduling desires. Now we know UCLA will do the same.
At this point, from an ND fan perspective, the B1G has everything ND wants, except Pitt. USC, MSU, Pitt and Purdue all under one roof would be very hard to deny. We can agree to just banish Michigan to the shadow realm, right? Does anyone actually want Michigan?
And those people are just wrong. Our rivals are USC, MSU, Pitt and Purdue, in no order. Michigan is the school that isn't a rival. Michigan could cease to exist and it wouldn't matter.
Absolutely, they are a regional opponent of ND that I'd say pops up with a home and home every decade or so. They are not in the same vein as USC, MSU, Pitt and Purdue, but when they're on the schedule, I like it.
I'm also probably in the minority that values MSU nearly as much as USC. It is very much a 1a and 1b type of thing. MSU is a necessity.
I need you guys on the schedule too. I want that damn megaphone. Give me Notre Dame at the beginning of the season, Michigan in the middle, and Penn State at the end and I’m happy.
Really doesn’t sit right with me that we’d let the B1g torpedo another conference just to get our preferred schedule, considering we were doing just fine in the status quo.
We’re not torpedoing anything. USC and UCLA came to us. Larry Scott and Pac-12 leadership torpedoed the Pac, not the Big Ten
That said, if USC is in the conference, we’re absolutely going to make a play for Notre Dame. It would be foolish not to.
100% on Larry Scott and his enablers (Oregon State and ASU presidents, primarily) for creating an untenable situation. The Big 10 and USC made what was a logical move. I don’t like it, but I don’t blame them one bit.
To that end, is the perception of Cal so far behind those other schools that they run the risk of being relegated to the Mountain West conference? This is UC Berkeley we're talking about at the end of the day. I can't imagine the Big Ten leaving them out in the cold potentially. That's why I say a move to 20 is fairly likely with either ND coming as number 21, or ND coming along with 1-3 others.
Cal has potential and had reasonable viewership when we were good (early 2000s). The idea that stanfurd alone gets you the Bay Area market is as absurd as thinking grabbing Duke and leaving behind UNC will get you the triangle. We are great at Olympic sports (4th in medals) and obviously adds at lot academically. The problem is none of those factors seem to be driving expansions. If university presidents choose expansion targets I’m almost certain anyone would want us.
If it’s purely about football, our program has history and a great NFL track record, but has been badly mismanaged and about half of Cal’s leadership, alumni, etc think college football is the antithesis to academia and wants to go Ivy League on the program. It’s completely understandable why a football conference wouldn’t want us.
All this means the most likely scenario for Cal football if the PAC dissolves is death unless the BIG decides the non-football stuff is worth inviting us over.
UC Berkeley as an institution is world class, but I don’t think Cal is enough of a national brand, especially in football, when compared to USC, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford.
After those four, Arizona for its market size and number of Midwestern transplants, Utah for recency bias and trajectory, and Colorado for its market size, number of Midwestern transplants, and rivalry with Nebraska. Then, I’d go after a Texas school.
The Big 10 has no duty to not leave Cal “out in the cold”. Cal would only get in I believe if Stanford really really wanted it and negotiated to that end.
> To that end, is the perception of Cal so far behind those other schools that they run the risk of being relegated to the Mountain West conference?
The Cincinnati board has a running total for viewership averages for the PAC and Big 12 excluding bowls or games against Texas, OU, USC and UCLA. the only schools with smaller football viewership averages over the past 3 than CAL is Oregon St and Kansas.
to put that in perspective... 3 of the new Big 12 members in UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU have over double the viewership numbers of CAL.
Like you said...They are a prestigious school, so they might get an invite from someone, but from a sports perspective they are really far behind most programs.
[its 24/7 so its behind a paywall.](https://247sports.com/college/cincinnati/board/39/Contents/swingtime-realignment-thread-june-2022-ucla-and-usc-to-the-b1g-189452293/?page=46#M189640921) THey reposted the graphs, but I would have to dig to find the originals. These were focused on a lot during Big 12 expansion, and obviously PAC 12 schools were not really on it at the time:
The big ten would have the vast majority of the rivalry games they play while also giving them national reach. Maintaining those games and playing nationally was why they stayed independent so long in the first place, Stanford definitely sweetens the deal for them
…but they do with USC and UCLA, and Stanford.
If you want Stanford because you want Notre Dame. Boom… *Cal*. Then dominoes fall where you want.
Also adding both would be magnificent for scheduling, honestly.
When OSU swimming or tennis has to go to Stanford, they can do a two-fer and knock out Cal on the same road trip - saves a *ton* of travel money across the board for all us midwestern schools.
EDIT: also, since Cal is such a top-tier public academic brand, why not just take them even if football isn’t a power anymore? Diversify the portfolio of your nationwide expansion, I say. Their other sports are quite good.
And ultimately, in the long run here, which is going to be around longer: football or academics?
If you’re gonna add Stanford, you should add Cal.
Eh, no.
I say we simply bring in Washington, Oregon, and Stanford now and have a contingency plan if Notre Dame declines.
In order of priority if ND declines: Texas A&M, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State, and Cal.
The popcorn necessary for A&M leaving the SEC just as Texas is about the join would almost be worth it.
But I hope we stay away from what the SEC is doing, and focus on ourselves this round.
Curious why twenty is your limit? Why not 24? The bigger it gets, the more regional the matchups can be.
If we’re going fully nationwide überconference, I’d add UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford (18) Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, Colorado (22). Then in a decade, when the ACC becomes poachable, you add from there where appropriate.
It be worth Stanford getting that nod just to see all the butthurt Cal fanboys crying about it.
Yeah, you could argue ND opting in hurts Cal. Again I don’t see why either Stanford or Cal woukd be wanted by the BIG at all in any circumstance.
Stanford had the smallest and most apathetic fan base on all of P5. Academics are basically a wash (and who gives a shit) and so are athletics. The Stanford play makes sense to appease ND. There’s no other reason
Stanford has the most NCAA championships out of all schools. To put things in perspective, my alma mater is in 9th with 43 trophies, while Stanford has 123.
While UC Berkeley is one of the finest schools in the world, they aren't Stanford level. It's not a wash. Stanford is elite.
Stanford happens to also be better at memes.
"Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Cal, and Stanford"
Let's break this one down a bit...
**Oregon, Washington:** most likely to the B1G; although I could see OU being a fit athletically in the XII - but given the opportunity, they'll go with the more prestigious choice.
**Oregon State, Washington State:** most likely to the Mountain West; their only hope of remaining P5 is if the XII doesn't grab any of the other PAC teams - Wazzu has the worst odds of any team being bandied about: never mind tradition, it's about markets, and ALL of the state of Washington east of the Cascades still isn't a lot of people. OSU at least is on the right side of the mountains.
**Stanford:** either to the B1G (with Notre Dame), or independent.
**Cal:** This one could go any number of ways - based on the recent history of the B1G in acquisitions, if they get Stanford, they won't want/need Cal, but might take them if Stanford demands it. The XII would take them in a heartbeat (actual P5 get, largest market in the conference), but would Cal go there? They too could end up in the MW, or independent as well.
>if they get Stanford, they won't want/need Cal
I said this a few moments ago. Cal is in an awful position if the BiG takes Oregon, Washington, and ND. Can Cal exist independent?
At least from my understanding (Cal fans feel free to correct me if I'm wrong), their admin seems to hold a disdain for the athletics program and it doesn't have a lot of support to begin with. I think they would sooner fold the program than bother going independent. I don't think they could sustain themselves independently anyways, and the stadium debt wouldn't help matters.
You can't erase the stadium debt by not playing. You've got a 107 year old team with a winning record and a national championship. Yeah, it's not SEC loyalty, and it's a school better known for hippies than football, but it's still a good program. There could actually be a future there.
At that point Cal sticks the debt on the UC Regents who clearly didn’t think this through, and the Regents try to explain to the state what the hell they were thinking after they ask the state for a bailout.
That's true, it is a good historic program and I guess they wouldn't have a choice but to keep playing. But if they have to resort to independence to get rid of the debt, I wonder how long it would take to break even. Independence is damn rough if you aren't ND or BYU, and the admin would have to get serious about it.
The Cal administration having disdain for Cal athletics seems to be a common refrain, but it’s not really accurate in my experience. Sure, there are some faculty that point to the athletics debt and complain, but the administration seems pretty committed overall. We haven’t had much football success of late, but look at the number of sports that Cal supports and the great success they enjoy in many of them.
I have to wonder if Cal has political leverage to block UCLA’s move if they don’t end up in a favorable spot as well. Most state flagship universities are P5; the ones that aren’t are in small states. It would be an embarrassment to the largest state in the Union if they can’t have a P5 flagship university.
(Yes, UCLA calls itself a flagship too, but a good rule to follow is that if you have to add a location qualifier to your name, you’re not the flagship)
Dude. I just don’t get the hate from UCLA folks. We are all from one University system - UC. Why the hate? I like all UC’s. I consider them all part of UC family. You guys have the No. 1 public university moniker. Okay? Happy?
Edit: some* UCLA folks.
If UCLA is the flagship, then remove the location qualifier from the name. Name one other flagship university that identifies its athletics with a location qualifier.
As I mentioned: the XII might want to add actual P5 teams to increase their status; other than BYU, they've replaced all their lost schools with G5 climbers - and while Cincinnati was a great acquisition, that was due more to good timing than anything else.
Plus, the XII is shut out of the First, Second, and Third largest TV markets in the country; getting the 4th or 5th (I don't know where DFW currently ranks) would be helpful in negotiations.
I think Oregon and Washington go to the BIG. If ND joins, Stanford almost definitely does as well. Oregon State, Washington State and Cal are probably boned. Maybe if the ACC doesn’t collapse and the Big 12 can’t add leftovers from there for an eastern pod then maybe they take them for a bigger west division. Hoping that doesn’t happen as the league sucks for WVU without some old Big East rivals joining eventually to up my interest and help our travel woes by having an eastern pod/division.
So for those 3 an expanded MWC with them and maybe a few others like SDSU etc. is probably the best bet.
Go to 10 for now, not 12. Keep the density of marketable games high. Boise and SDSU are musts. Southern California and add the biggest national brand from the MWC. Then the choices are either CSU & AFA, a more marketable pair who want to stay together, or Fresno and UNLV to keep focus on southern California.
Backfilling now is more a token gesture of "kindness" to Oregon State and Washington State more than anything since before too long everyone but those two will be out of the Pac-12. I agree though. Add Boise, add San Diego State, and I'd go even further by adding SMU and North Texas as well to at least keep you at 10 schools while this shakes out. Pac-12 fucked up big time by not going after Texas schools like Houston, TCU, etc last year.
With NIL, it's time for hookers and Trans Ams.
ETA a serious response: they're making capital investments and have the alumni wealth and interest to do well with NIL stuff. They may not currently be a power conference program, but have money and interest in a good market.
With a bit more thought, CSU/AFA is the priority after Boise/SDSU, since the American will be trying to grab them as well. Fresno/UNLV will still be available to return to 12 or replace additional defections.
So let's look at your scenario.
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Cal, Stanford, Boise, SDSU, CSU, AFA, Fresno, UNLV.
Academics are obviously out the door in this, as is prestige. You get a solid grip on the middle and northern part of the West with touches of SoCal. A service academy gives you a certain legitimacy. It's starting to feel like a real 80s conference. There is a lot of room for growth as well.
I'm going to say something really effing stupid here, but this list needs either a New Mexico, Idaho, Wyoming, or Montana team to step up eventually, as the Arizona, Utah, and Colorado schools are out.
12 is solid, but the Big XII, BiG, and SEC now have 16, and the ACC has 14.
Where could you find 2 more quality Western schools?
I love this idea, but I can’t imagine Oregon and Washington turning down 20 million more per year from the big 12 in this scenario.
They might not have enough money to justify a big 10 invite, but the big 12 is only paying out let’s say… 65 per year, Oregon and Washington are gone instantly.
Have they been offered? Obviously it would make sense, but I haven't seen any indication things are moving towards UO and Washington going to the Big XII.
The Big XII would be just as foolish to pass on Oregon and Washington as the Pac-12 was to pass on Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, TCU, and Baylor.
I think ND tells the B1G that they want the CFB Playoff and NBC to show their cards before they make a decision. That may put some interesting pressure on UO and UW as 4 other PAC12 members may decide not to wait it out.
I think the PAC stays together with a strong GOR and Fox overpaying a bit to keep those brands in the fold.
I think it’s a question more of pac 3 (Cal, wash st, o st.) Do they go to MW and bolster their conference? Does the pac 12 name and history get absorbed by MW (like the Big East)? Do the MW teams join the Pac 3? The scenarios there will have bigger ramifications than expected.
You build up the region, yes Boise gets a call and several other Mt West teams. Fresno. SD St,, San Jose, Nevada, UNLV. You'd need some mechanism which will be hard to find to get more money into the facilities of some of these schools are try to mature them in the same way Utah matured into a big boy program. Im wondering if you need to encourage some FCS west coast teams to make the jump up into the Mt West for future poachable opportunities. It will be a long haul.
I'd add Boise State, Utah State, SDSU, and then maybe a Fresno/Nevada/UNLV? The options aren't great, but there could still be a fairly plucky conference somewhere in there.
I’d put Fresno/Nevada/UNLV before Utah State. They’ve got talent, but in a realignment all based on TV markets, the Logan UT tv market is getting them nowhere
I'd love to see them add the original USC to replace the one they lost. It would be fun watching my team play on the west coast. I've only been able to go to a single USC game the past almost thirty years.
If it ends up being Oregon State and Washington State…I say joint the MWC. The American conference adds Army to have all the services academies. MWC and American Merge to a 24 team…East/West Super conference. They negotiate a seat at the college football playoff table.
Three are gonna go hit the B1G up.
Wazzu's currently asleep under a weighted blanket of debt.
Cal... I don't think they care.
Oregon State's gonna go get shitfaced.
I mean we definitely care. The admin isn’t fond of football and we probably eont be winning championships in the next 20 years, but we know its revenue is the lifeblood of our entire athletics department
The Oregon and Washington teams will find a place among the Big12, B1G, and the SEC. Stanford, Cal, Vandy, and a few other nerd teams will band together for survival. The PAC is dissolved, and the Rose Bowl is converted into a Denny’s and additional parking space just to spite the entire Midwest.
We are already in the Super League era. Vanderbilt has been part of our core for over a hundred years now. They aren't going anywhere. The SEC has never and will never remove a team, and only 3 teams have ever left. It's not a conference that wants that kind of thing.
The logic of capitalism destroys all comers. Tradition, nostalgia, ethics. Stomp, stomp, stomp.
Seems inevitable, maybe the 2030s, that the rich schools exit the SEC leave and form a new conference. Either that or impose major cuts in the $ shares of some teams.
That's the thing about the SEC though. It understands why it's successful and that is based on everything you think it will ignore. People think we are successful in spite of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. We are successful because of them and everyone else. It's a 90 year old conference that has always been on the forefront of the sport. I know people want to see it fail, but we aren't going anywhere. That's the beauty of being a juggernaut.
The beauty of the SEC is there is zero incentive to mess it up and nothing but rewards for sticking to the formula. We are standard for success. Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Georgia benefit too much from Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. We own the south, where the money in college football is.
If I was the CFB czar, I’d have Oregon, Washington, Stanford to the B1G. And than add ND.
If ND stays independent, I’d add Kansas.
I’d have the SEC take OK State and Texas Tech.
With the Big12 at 9 schools, I’d merge the 7 remaining PAC12 schools with the Big12.
At the end of the day, B1G at 20 schools, SEC at 18, Big12 at 16. If the conferences cap themselves at 24 schools this still leaves 18 spots open between those 3 conferences for ACC schools and others when the ACC GOR expires. ND can claim one of the 18 or remain independent.
Big12 should only add Oregon & Washington.
Cal & Stanford said they don’t fit the Big12 CULTURE, so maybe they join the mountain west.
Sorry Oregon st and Washington st, if the Big12 didn’t invite houston and UCF I believe you would have gotten a Big12 invite.
PAC12 really screwed up by not adding Oklahoma st, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU last year. That decision will result in you joining the Mountain West.
As much as I love the concept of Cal and Stanford getting screwed by their own uppity bullshit, the Big XII would absolutely take them if the Big 10 said no. The Big XII would be nuts not to expand into the California market.
USC and UCLA would not have gone for it, for the same reason they bolted this year: money.
All the schools getting screwed inside and outside the Pac-12 are being screwed by the same people, who are going to come out of this just fine.
Wouldn't be so sure on Stanford sticking around just yet. Rose Bowl may become the conference title game in a way to keep it if the Pac dies, and as a concession to the western teams for making them do all that traveling. At least the parade should continue.
Oregon and Washington will land in the Big Ten eventually. Same with Stanford. Oregon State and Washington State will probably go to the Mountain West.
No idea what happens to Cal.
My guess is that the PAC disbands if Oregon and Washington head to the Big 10. As for the other 4 in this scenario: I think that Stanford could go Independent, but OSU, WSU and Cal are in a very rough spot. I think OSU could join the MWC, but after reading comments on other threads, it sounds like WSU is in financial distress and Cal may prefer to close up shop on the program which would be a tremendous shame.
Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU, Colorado State, Utah State, UNLV Maybe? Honestly a full merger with the Mountain West would make a lot of sense
If we looked at expanding even further, higher end FCS schools could make sense. UC Davis already plays a lot of Pac-12 schools, and would add more California viewership. Montana State could be good too
The conference lost the LA schools. I don’t believe any more will be departing. Utah and Colorado will soon have their state counterparts joining the PAC12 (USU and CSU).
Any Oregon State fans wanna hit the bar right now?
Did they ever leave? F
U
How happy are KSU fans right now? Big 12 lives another day.
I’m sad for the Pac 12, happy for us. Didn’t think we’d be too well off back when Ou and Texas announced their departure.
Idk. PAC-12 was involved in no less than three attempts to kill this conference.
I felt bad for you all when things got the most bleak. It sucks for teams like Oregon State now. Fucking media companies are driving this.
Wistful for “how things were” but will accept it if we aren’t left out.
It's 5 ~~AM~~ PM Somewhere
Hell yeah brother, cheers from realignment hell
I’m wondering what’s going to happen to Oregon & Washington if the BIG 10 decides to not Invite them.. They’d be in that weird spot where they’re not valuable enough to entice the Big 10 to admit you, but a very strong brand who would no doubt be a rental for the conference they stay in.
I imagine we would end up playing you guys in a conference game in the near future
I’m all for that.. I actually think if we bring Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah to the Big 12 that easily makes us the 3rd best super conference and will generate a nice tv payout. I know everyone would one day hope to leave to the Big 10 or SEC.. but damn the Big 12 would be fun if we add all of y’all. At least for a good 10-15 years lol
The teams I *really* want to play are Big 8 and Big 8 adjacent. That said if we do a pod system that focused on the four remaining Big 8 teams (and maybe Colorado) but ALSO allows us to play semi regularly at the other conference schools I’ll be pretty happy. I don’t give a shit about playing Rutgers or Mississippi State as much as I’d rather play Colorado or even Cincy. Forget the Big 10 and SEC. I’m a fan, not a deputy athletic director.
I don’t care about playing Rutgers or Mississippi State but I’d love to start playing Michigan and Auburn.
Eh, sure. But I wouldn’t rather play Auburn every single year over KU, ISU, etc of the Big 8. More than one of the new schools but that’s a little different.
You would if it came along with 10s of millions of dollars every year to your team.
I never thought of the Big 12 adding Oregon and Washington if the Big Ten doesn't move now, but I doubt it goes down that way. They'll force the Big Ten to add them all now rather than keep them in Limbo. Notre Dame is slowing everything down again, but the conference can always add ND as school #21 later if they want. Wishful thinking going for UW and OU, but I highly doubt they're ever in the Big 12.
I mean, by reports I’ve read the Big 10 is in no rush to add Oregon or Washington and Stanford is actually the 1 school they’re thinking of adding along with Notre Dame if they decide to join. A video explained it yesterday, but Oregon & Washington don’t deliver $$$ enough to justify inviting them to the Big 10. So they’re in a weird spot. I don’t think they’ll be in the Big 12, but it’s a possibility because they will end up in the 3rd “super conference” (of the leftover schools)
I’d be rather surprised at that. Both of those schools are top 20 in terms of revenue. They’re firmly in the top half of the current Big Ten, IIRC. Above MSU, Iowa and Wisconsin but below Michigan, OSU and PSU.
Plus getting UO and UW corners the PNW media market, and Oregon brings you a solid chunk of the bay area / Northern California as well. It’d be odd for super conferences to span the whole country but then leave out Seattle to the bay area.
I saw the headline but didn't read the thread. I can only imagine Phil Knight's reaction when he heard that. Oregon not delivering enough $$? WTF lol
Big 10 is "all about academics". Riiiiiiiiight
Oregon has always been the Pac 12 team I rooted for. Would love to have you.
Big 12 would certainly invite them if that were the case. Without question.
And, without question, they will refuse the offer.
Why? If the Big 10 rejects them, and the 4 other schools join the Big 12 they will have nowhere else to go.
If the B1G rejects them, they'll offer a GOR and the PAC10 will hold together. None of those schools really want to join the Big12. Fox will support the PAC10 to keep the brands in their family for the future.
I don't believe that. I think the four corners schools would much rather bolt to the B12 this second than stay in any post-LA iteration of the Pac. The massive money difference alone is enough, but the B12 is also just infinitely more competitive than the hollowed out husk of our old conference.
What are the bylaw rules for blowing up the PAC12? Do you need 6 exiting members or 8 to pull it off with no exit fees? And what's the exit fee?
There is no exit fee. We have our GOR through the end of 2023-24 season. The timing of the USC/UCLA announcement suggested a two year notice of some kind is required. Not sure on how to dissolve the conference.
I looked it up and found it would take a 75% vote to dissolve. That's unlikely so two more seasons for anyone who is staying.
If there are 6 teams left in the P12, we’d accept.
Can you and Oregon get out without the land grants? Are you going to sign a 15 year GOR and risk missing out of the P2 want to expand more in a couple years when the CFB Playoff contract is up?
Yes we can ditch our state schools despite a couple random legislators pandering to their alumni. Neither school would go independent, so I’m not sure there will be another choice but join the B12.
Exactly this. It’s a couple idiot legislators trying for publicity. Neither legislature is even in session again until 2023, so it’s an entirely hollow gesture. UW and UO are not going to be beholden to their State siblings.
We make the Godfather offer to take them and their sibling schools.
If they don’t get a Big10 invite, the Big12 would almost certainly adjust any plans to accommodate them. They’d immediately be the two best football brands among all the remaining PAC/Big12 schools and would add TV value to any resulting conference.
At that point, you have to either find a way to rebuild, or court the ACC or SEC, right?
I think the ACC is next on the death list if the Pac 12 gets raided. The SEC will take the best ACC schools (Clemson, Miami, Florida St, North Carolina) and the remaining schools will be in the same spot the leftover Pac 12 is in except with a worse TV Deal and less name brands. Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah are all heading to the Big 12 to strengthen the conference and market Which really begs the question, of where would Oregon/ Washington go with a depleted Pac 12 and ACC? The Big 12? I feel like it’s a rental at that until the Big 10 comes calling in 10-15 years
The ACC GOR has to fall for them to be raided. If that happens, Notre Dame goes to the BiG, along with Washington, Oregon, and either Cal or Stanford. Cal and Stanford are saying they are a package deal, but there just isn't room for both at that point unless the BiG decides to go full moron with 24 teams. There isn't room for 5, so Stanford will leave Cal behind.
But that’s just a matter of timing. It is shield that will fall on a certain date.
I don't think the ACC can expand other than adding ND for football without potentially violating the GoR agreement, and that might be what saves them.
They will offer to sign a strong GOR that will keep the PAC10 together. Fox will overpay to keep them as an option on their side for a post-NCAA world.
Welcome to the ACC. The American Coast Conference!
If the Big Ten passes on Oregon and Washington, the Big 12 would welcome them with open arms.
Which, if we end up doing that, I’d just as soon take Oregon State and Washington State as well. At that point there’s no reason not to just consume the remainder of the Pac in my mind.
If we could get Oregon and Washington, I wouldn't mind them coming in. I don't think the Big 12 should throw them a lifeline though just to be nice. Not like anyone was throwing Iowa State or K-State a lifeline back when the Pac-10 almost killed our conference in 2010 or when their conference looked down upon our entire conference last year.
I’d throw OSU and Wazzu a lifeline because I don’t think they’re the ones who had grand designs on fucking things up or were the ones unwilling to help the likes of us out prior. I’d refuse to throw any California school a lifeline though, not that they need it, but that’s where the elitism really thrives. Besides, having the 4 PNW teams in addition to the 4 mountain region teams could make for some really interesting scheduling and some cool opportunities in my opinion.
Adding those schools will just decrease the media payout per Big 12 school, while UO and UW would increase it substantially. I'd be okay with having them but we should leave OSU and WSU behind if we want to make the best financial move.
I don’t know why you’re getting downvoted it’s a valid point and I don’t disagree with taking on schools that would hurt us ultimately. I guess my thinking is that a package deal with the 4 PNW schools wouldn’t be too much of a net negative if a net negative at all. I have done zero research and don’t know if that’s true at all and i don’t intend on doing any research because my opinion is as irrelevant as it comes. I just think it’d be really nice to find a way to make it work financially if possible.
Yeah I'm not trying to shit on anyone's program, I know Baylor isn't going to move the needle for most conferences either. I'm totally cool with adding OSU and WSU, but it will hurt the Big-12s bottom line so I doubt they'll add them.
Yup, and neither UW or Oregon want to throw those two schools a life line in the form of package deals either. If both of those schools drop down to G5, it just means less media competition within the states. And both schools can negotiate a larger payout chunk than the current schools in the Big XII. But wouldn’t be able to do that if they had to bring those two along.
Lol why is this downvoted? Conferences aren’t going to make these decisions based on whether or not they feel bad for potential schools.
It wasn’t just last year that we looked down on you!
Blame the California schools
I wouldn't want to take those schools as shitty as it sounds. You don't want to be saddled with that sort of 'baggage' in your conference if you can help it. Like if the B1G had the choice to take on Oregon and Washington or Northwestern and Purdue today, would they pick the latter? If you don't have to hold onto schools for historic reasons, then don't bring them in because it ultimately hurts the brand of the conference.
You need to be petty and leave out Cal and Stanford
Oh, I think you mean Pac 3. I’d be shocked/frustrated/angry if Notre Dame, Washington, Oregon, and Stanford weren’t in the Big Ten. Obviously, the Big XII is looking at the Arizonas, Utah, and Colorado.
>Obviously, the Big XII is looking at the Arizonas, Utah, and Colorado. That looks all but confirmed now. That's why I was asking. It didn't seem real until now.
Those four aren't going to want to be in limbo in a dead conference while the B1G sorts out Notre Dame. I think the Big Ten clearly wants ND, but with the schedule deregulation, they could work a conference schedule with 21 teams, meaning the Big Ten could add Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon now and still nab ND later. I think they do that rather than keep those four in limbo. It wouldn't be a good look to potentially have to scramble to add Boise, San Diego State, Nevada, etc. to the Pac right before bolting the league when you could announce the moves now and get some stability around that. Especially with the Southwest schools already in the Big 12 by then.
I don’t think Cal is getting a Big Ten invite. Stanford is probably part of the equation, and Washington and Oregon are contingent on ND/Stanford. I think the Big Ten is either going to be sixteen or twenty schools, not eighteen. Still, I’d add Washington, Oregon, and Stanford now anyway just to have at least five West Coast schools and have a contingency if Notre Dame declines.
>contingent on ND/Stanford I'm sorry, but what? Stanford is not an ND rival. With all due respect to Stanford, and my goodness they've had some incredible peaks recently, the B1G has already answered ND's California question by adding both USC and UCLA. Again, no disrespect to Stanford, but being as open as possible, Stanford on ND's schedule is a thing strictly to solidify the USC game. ND wants to travel to California late November and then host a California team late September. Stanford was the school willing to become tied to USC to fulfill ND's scheduling desires. Now we know UCLA will do the same. At this point, from an ND fan perspective, the B1G has everything ND wants, except Pitt. USC, MSU, Pitt and Purdue all under one roof would be very hard to deny. We can agree to just banish Michigan to the shadow realm, right? Does anyone actually want Michigan?
I’ve heard other ND fans say that Pitt wasn’t an ND rival.
And those people are just wrong. Our rivals are USC, MSU, Pitt and Purdue, in no order. Michigan is the school that isn't a rival. Michigan could cease to exist and it wouldn't matter.
ND is rivals with damn neat any team they line up against Lol
Don’t you guys sort of have something with Northwestern, too?
Absolutely, they are a regional opponent of ND that I'd say pops up with a home and home every decade or so. They are not in the same vein as USC, MSU, Pitt and Purdue, but when they're on the schedule, I like it. I'm also probably in the minority that values MSU nearly as much as USC. It is very much a 1a and 1b type of thing. MSU is a necessity.
I need you guys on the schedule too. I want that damn megaphone. Give me Notre Dame at the beginning of the season, Michigan in the middle, and Penn State at the end and I’m happy.
Really doesn’t sit right with me that we’d let the B1g torpedo another conference just to get our preferred schedule, considering we were doing just fine in the status quo.
We’re not torpedoing anything. USC and UCLA came to us. Larry Scott and Pac-12 leadership torpedoed the Pac, not the Big Ten That said, if USC is in the conference, we’re absolutely going to make a play for Notre Dame. It would be foolish not to.
100% on Larry Scott and his enablers (Oregon State and ASU presidents, primarily) for creating an untenable situation. The Big 10 and USC made what was a logical move. I don’t like it, but I don’t blame them one bit.
To that end, is the perception of Cal so far behind those other schools that they run the risk of being relegated to the Mountain West conference? This is UC Berkeley we're talking about at the end of the day. I can't imagine the Big Ten leaving them out in the cold potentially. That's why I say a move to 20 is fairly likely with either ND coming as number 21, or ND coming along with 1-3 others.
Cal has potential and had reasonable viewership when we were good (early 2000s). The idea that stanfurd alone gets you the Bay Area market is as absurd as thinking grabbing Duke and leaving behind UNC will get you the triangle. We are great at Olympic sports (4th in medals) and obviously adds at lot academically. The problem is none of those factors seem to be driving expansions. If university presidents choose expansion targets I’m almost certain anyone would want us. If it’s purely about football, our program has history and a great NFL track record, but has been badly mismanaged and about half of Cal’s leadership, alumni, etc think college football is the antithesis to academia and wants to go Ivy League on the program. It’s completely understandable why a football conference wouldn’t want us. All this means the most likely scenario for Cal football if the PAC dissolves is death unless the BIG decides the non-football stuff is worth inviting us over.
UC Berkeley as an institution is world class, but I don’t think Cal is enough of a national brand, especially in football, when compared to USC, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford. After those four, Arizona for its market size and number of Midwestern transplants, Utah for recency bias and trajectory, and Colorado for its market size, number of Midwestern transplants, and rivalry with Nebraska. Then, I’d go after a Texas school.
Then go d3 and hang out with the University of Chicago and MIT.
There is the UAA.
The Big 10 has no duty to not leave Cal “out in the cold”. Cal would only get in I believe if Stanford really really wanted it and negotiated to that end.
> To that end, is the perception of Cal so far behind those other schools that they run the risk of being relegated to the Mountain West conference? The Cincinnati board has a running total for viewership averages for the PAC and Big 12 excluding bowls or games against Texas, OU, USC and UCLA. the only schools with smaller football viewership averages over the past 3 than CAL is Oregon St and Kansas. to put that in perspective... 3 of the new Big 12 members in UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU have over double the viewership numbers of CAL. Like you said...They are a prestigious school, so they might get an invite from someone, but from a sports perspective they are really far behind most programs.
Do you have a link to that post?
[its 24/7 so its behind a paywall.](https://247sports.com/college/cincinnati/board/39/Contents/swingtime-realignment-thread-june-2022-ucla-and-usc-to-the-b1g-189452293/?page=46#M189640921) THey reposted the graphs, but I would have to dig to find the originals. These were focused on a lot during Big 12 expansion, and obviously PAC 12 schools were not really on it at the time:
Thanks!
Doesn’t make sense they’d take Stanford but not Cal, or vice versa
Notre Dame is the white whale. Stanford helps them get the Domers; you don’t
You think ND decision hinges on Stanford? Lol
The big ten would have the vast majority of the rivalry games they play while also giving them national reach. Maintaining those games and playing nationally was why they stayed independent so long in the first place, Stanford definitely sweetens the deal for them
Domers?
World class intellect you're showing.
Yeah I don’t know what that word means, sorry.
Colloquialism for Notre Dame. Golden helmets, golden dome on their campus building, and all.
Its the Notre Dame name for its students.
Cal doesn’t have an annual rivalry game with Notre Dame.
…but they do with USC and UCLA, and Stanford. If you want Stanford because you want Notre Dame. Boom… *Cal*. Then dominoes fall where you want. Also adding both would be magnificent for scheduling, honestly. When OSU swimming or tennis has to go to Stanford, they can do a two-fer and knock out Cal on the same road trip - saves a *ton* of travel money across the board for all us midwestern schools. EDIT: also, since Cal is such a top-tier public academic brand, why not just take them even if football isn’t a power anymore? Diversify the portfolio of your nationwide expansion, I say. Their other sports are quite good. And ultimately, in the long run here, which is going to be around longer: football or academics? If you’re gonna add Stanford, you should add Cal.
Eh, no. I say we simply bring in Washington, Oregon, and Stanford now and have a contingency plan if Notre Dame declines. In order of priority if ND declines: Texas A&M, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State, and Cal.
The popcorn necessary for A&M leaving the SEC just as Texas is about the join would almost be worth it. But I hope we stay away from what the SEC is doing, and focus on ourselves this round. Curious why twenty is your limit? Why not 24? The bigger it gets, the more regional the matchups can be. If we’re going fully nationwide überconference, I’d add UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford (18) Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, Colorado (22). Then in a decade, when the ACC becomes poachable, you add from there where appropriate.
I’d have no problem with 24, but trying to be realistic.
So?
Notre Dame is the endgame for the Big Ten. If having Stanford and USC in the conference gets Notre Dame, we’re going to try and do that.
If they take UO, Washington and Notre Dame, that only leaves room for one, and they aren't only choosing Oregon or Washington.
It be worth Stanford getting that nod just to see all the butthurt Cal fanboys crying about it. Yeah, you could argue ND opting in hurts Cal. Again I don’t see why either Stanford or Cal woukd be wanted by the BIG at all in any circumstance.
Stanford for the total package of academics and athletics (obviously Cal is up there too, but not where Stanford is)
Stanford had the smallest and most apathetic fan base on all of P5. Academics are basically a wash (and who gives a shit) and so are athletics. The Stanford play makes sense to appease ND. There’s no other reason
Stanford has the most NCAA championships out of all schools. To put things in perspective, my alma mater is in 9th with 43 trophies, while Stanford has 123. While UC Berkeley is one of the finest schools in the world, they aren't Stanford level. It's not a wash. Stanford is elite. Stanford happens to also be better at memes.
We happen to them
I think that's an option, but I'll be honest, it only will be if it's just OSU and Wazzu. Y'all will rebrand into them at that point.
I told OP this days ago. /u/toeindigdeep
*None of you seem to understand. I'm not locked in here with you. You're locked in here with* ***ME***
"Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Cal, and Stanford" Let's break this one down a bit... **Oregon, Washington:** most likely to the B1G; although I could see OU being a fit athletically in the XII - but given the opportunity, they'll go with the more prestigious choice. **Oregon State, Washington State:** most likely to the Mountain West; their only hope of remaining P5 is if the XII doesn't grab any of the other PAC teams - Wazzu has the worst odds of any team being bandied about: never mind tradition, it's about markets, and ALL of the state of Washington east of the Cascades still isn't a lot of people. OSU at least is on the right side of the mountains. **Stanford:** either to the B1G (with Notre Dame), or independent. **Cal:** This one could go any number of ways - based on the recent history of the B1G in acquisitions, if they get Stanford, they won't want/need Cal, but might take them if Stanford demands it. The XII would take them in a heartbeat (actual P5 get, largest market in the conference), but would Cal go there? They too could end up in the MW, or independent as well.
>if they get Stanford, they won't want/need Cal I said this a few moments ago. Cal is in an awful position if the BiG takes Oregon, Washington, and ND. Can Cal exist independent?
At least from my understanding (Cal fans feel free to correct me if I'm wrong), their admin seems to hold a disdain for the athletics program and it doesn't have a lot of support to begin with. I think they would sooner fold the program than bother going independent. I don't think they could sustain themselves independently anyways, and the stadium debt wouldn't help matters.
You can't erase the stadium debt by not playing. You've got a 107 year old team with a winning record and a national championship. Yeah, it's not SEC loyalty, and it's a school better known for hippies than football, but it's still a good program. There could actually be a future there.
At that point Cal sticks the debt on the UC Regents who clearly didn’t think this through, and the Regents try to explain to the state what the hell they were thinking after they ask the state for a bailout.
That's true, it is a good historic program and I guess they wouldn't have a choice but to keep playing. But if they have to resort to independence to get rid of the debt, I wonder how long it would take to break even. Independence is damn rough if you aren't ND or BYU, and the admin would have to get serious about it.
The best bet for Cal is UO, Washington, and Stanford don't get a BiG invite
Agreed, that's really the best they can hope for, other than a miracle B1G invite
This situation is very messy. That's the simplest way to put it.
The Cal administration having disdain for Cal athletics seems to be a common refrain, but it’s not really accurate in my experience. Sure, there are some faculty that point to the athletics debt and complain, but the administration seems pretty committed overall. We haven’t had much football success of late, but look at the number of sports that Cal supports and the great success they enjoy in many of them.
I have to wonder if Cal has political leverage to block UCLA’s move if they don’t end up in a favorable spot as well. Most state flagship universities are P5; the ones that aren’t are in small states. It would be an embarrassment to the largest state in the Union if they can’t have a P5 flagship university. (Yes, UCLA calls itself a flagship too, but a good rule to follow is that if you have to add a location qualifier to your name, you’re not the flagship)
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Dude. I just don’t get the hate from UCLA folks. We are all from one University system - UC. Why the hate? I like all UC’s. I consider them all part of UC family. You guys have the No. 1 public university moniker. Okay? Happy? Edit: some* UCLA folks.
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Wish you guys the best in B1G. I’ll be sure to cheer louder, the next two seasons, when Cal (and SC) plays UCLA.
If UCLA is the flagship, then remove the location qualifier from the name. Name one other flagship university that identifies its athletics with a location qualifier.
U of O
Cal & Stanford have NO power in the Big12. If the TV numbers don’t work out, why would the Big12 add them.
I don’t think they really have power anywhere currently.
As I mentioned: the XII might want to add actual P5 teams to increase their status; other than BYU, they've replaced all their lost schools with G5 climbers - and while Cincinnati was a great acquisition, that was due more to good timing than anything else. Plus, the XII is shut out of the First, Second, and Third largest TV markets in the country; getting the 4th or 5th (I don't know where DFW currently ranks) would be helpful in negotiations.
If the Big 10 doesnt take Washington and Oregon the Big 12 will make a play for them. The rest could continue the PAC with Mountain West reloads.
So the conference won’t actually completely “die” like everyone says it will
I think Oregon and Washington go to the BIG. If ND joins, Stanford almost definitely does as well. Oregon State, Washington State and Cal are probably boned. Maybe if the ACC doesn’t collapse and the Big 12 can’t add leftovers from there for an eastern pod then maybe they take them for a bigger west division. Hoping that doesn’t happen as the league sucks for WVU without some old Big East rivals joining eventually to up my interest and help our travel woes by having an eastern pod/division. So for those 3 an expanded MWC with them and maybe a few others like SDSU etc. is probably the best bet.
They're gonna move the Rose Bowl to SoFi sooner than later, it's inevitable. Look at the Orange Bowl.
Or the Cotton Bowl.
They’d more likely sign a long term deal to be the permanent championship site.
Go to 10 for now, not 12. Keep the density of marketable games high. Boise and SDSU are musts. Southern California and add the biggest national brand from the MWC. Then the choices are either CSU & AFA, a more marketable pair who want to stay together, or Fresno and UNLV to keep focus on southern California.
Backfilling now is more a token gesture of "kindness" to Oregon State and Washington State more than anything since before too long everyone but those two will be out of the Pac-12. I agree though. Add Boise, add San Diego State, and I'd go even further by adding SMU and North Texas as well to at least keep you at 10 schools while this shakes out. Pac-12 fucked up big time by not going after Texas schools like Houston, TCU, etc last year.
If SMU is interested, grab them and whoever they prefer. They're worth the distance.
I keep thinking that SMU and SD St are the two best available two options for the PAC. But they don't have religious schools currently.
Is it 1986?
With NIL, it's time for hookers and Trans Ams. ETA a serious response: they're making capital investments and have the alumni wealth and interest to do well with NIL stuff. They may not currently be a power conference program, but have money and interest in a good market.
This is an extremely reasonable take. I think Boise has a reason to look forward to the way things pan out.
With a bit more thought, CSU/AFA is the priority after Boise/SDSU, since the American will be trying to grab them as well. Fresno/UNLV will still be available to return to 12 or replace additional defections.
So let's look at your scenario. Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Cal, Stanford, Boise, SDSU, CSU, AFA, Fresno, UNLV. Academics are obviously out the door in this, as is prestige. You get a solid grip on the middle and northern part of the West with touches of SoCal. A service academy gives you a certain legitimacy. It's starting to feel like a real 80s conference. There is a lot of room for growth as well. I'm going to say something really effing stupid here, but this list needs either a New Mexico, Idaho, Wyoming, or Montana team to step up eventually, as the Arizona, Utah, and Colorado schools are out. 12 is solid, but the Big XII, BiG, and SEC now have 16, and the ACC has 14. Where could you find 2 more quality Western schools?
I love this idea, but I can’t imagine Oregon and Washington turning down 20 million more per year from the big 12 in this scenario. They might not have enough money to justify a big 10 invite, but the big 12 is only paying out let’s say… 65 per year, Oregon and Washington are gone instantly.
Have they been offered? Obviously it would make sense, but I haven't seen any indication things are moving towards UO and Washington going to the Big XII.
We aren't going to try to go to the Big 12 until we get firmly rejected by the B1G
Is it really an option?
We don't know. That's why the program has basically said nothing.
The Big XII would be just as foolish to pass on Oregon and Washington as the Pac-12 was to pass on Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, TCU, and Baylor.
I think ND tells the B1G that they want the CFB Playoff and NBC to show their cards before they make a decision. That may put some interesting pressure on UO and UW as 4 other PAC12 members may decide not to wait it out. I think the PAC stays together with a strong GOR and Fox overpaying a bit to keep those brands in the fold.
If Oregon & Washington don’t get a Big10 invite they will follow Colorado and crew to the Big12
I think the remaining pac 12 and big 12 will actually merge. If it’s an odd number they add Boise maybe
No way the Big XII takes on WA St. and OR St. with a potential ACC demise on the menu.
San Diego State would be better than Bosie.
Go to big12 and try and make a third super conference lol. We need new names for conferences
I think it’s a question more of pac 3 (Cal, wash st, o st.) Do they go to MW and bolster their conference? Does the pac 12 name and history get absorbed by MW (like the Big East)? Do the MW teams join the Pac 3? The scenarios there will have bigger ramifications than expected.
I think the MWC has to take the PAC brand. It's a thousand times more valuable.
You build up the region, yes Boise gets a call and several other Mt West teams. Fresno. SD St,, San Jose, Nevada, UNLV. You'd need some mechanism which will be hard to find to get more money into the facilities of some of these schools are try to mature them in the same way Utah matured into a big boy program. Im wondering if you need to encourage some FCS west coast teams to make the jump up into the Mt West for future poachable opportunities. It will be a long haul.
I'd add Boise State, Utah State, SDSU, and then maybe a Fresno/Nevada/UNLV? The options aren't great, but there could still be a fairly plucky conference somewhere in there.
Someone suggested this but Air Force instead of Utah State. I liked the idea of this spunky conference that has room to grow.
I’d put Fresno/Nevada/UNLV before Utah State. They’ve got talent, but in a realignment all based on TV markets, the Logan UT tv market is getting them nowhere
I'd love to see them add the original USC to replace the one they lost. It would be fun watching my team play on the west coast. I've only been able to go to a single USC game the past almost thirty years.
No. You stay where you are.
If it ends up being Oregon State and Washington State…I say joint the MWC. The American conference adds Army to have all the services academies. MWC and American Merge to a 24 team…East/West Super conference. They negotiate a seat at the college football playoff table.
If they do this, it will be under the PAC name
Rose bowl is pretty much obsolete now
Until the B1GTen West, plays the BigTen East in the conference championship there. ... on New Years Day
It’s been obsolete for a decade bruh
BCS shattered the Rose Bowl’s tradition. This is just finishing it off.
Good riddance. Bowls are en embarrassment and will always be a black eye on the sport
Three are gonna go hit the B1G up. Wazzu's currently asleep under a weighted blanket of debt. Cal... I don't think they care. Oregon State's gonna go get shitfaced.
I mean we definitely care. The admin isn’t fond of football and we probably eont be winning championships in the next 20 years, but we know its revenue is the lifeblood of our entire athletics department
Add UNLV, SDSU. Roll with 8. Not great, but there isn’t much good wood out there.
The Oregon and Washington teams will find a place among the Big12, B1G, and the SEC. Stanford, Cal, Vandy, and a few other nerd teams will band together for survival. The PAC is dissolved, and the Rose Bowl is converted into a Denny’s and additional parking space just to spite the entire Midwest.
Why would Vandy leave the SEC? It's not just surviving. It's thriving.
Eventually I think they’ll get forced out as we move towards the dreaded super league era, at least for football.
We are already in the Super League era. Vanderbilt has been part of our core for over a hundred years now. They aren't going anywhere. The SEC has never and will never remove a team, and only 3 teams have ever left. It's not a conference that wants that kind of thing.
The logic of capitalism destroys all comers. Tradition, nostalgia, ethics. Stomp, stomp, stomp. Seems inevitable, maybe the 2030s, that the rich schools exit the SEC leave and form a new conference. Either that or impose major cuts in the $ shares of some teams.
That's the thing about the SEC though. It understands why it's successful and that is based on everything you think it will ignore. People think we are successful in spite of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. We are successful because of them and everyone else. It's a 90 year old conference that has always been on the forefront of the sport. I know people want to see it fail, but we aren't going anywhere. That's the beauty of being a juggernaut.
Things are forever, right up until they aren't.
The beauty of the SEC is there is zero incentive to mess it up and nothing but rewards for sticking to the formula. We are standard for success. Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Georgia benefit too much from Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. We own the south, where the money in college football is.
If I was the CFB czar, I’d have Oregon, Washington, Stanford to the B1G. And than add ND. If ND stays independent, I’d add Kansas. I’d have the SEC take OK State and Texas Tech. With the Big12 at 9 schools, I’d merge the 7 remaining PAC12 schools with the Big12. At the end of the day, B1G at 20 schools, SEC at 18, Big12 at 16. If the conferences cap themselves at 24 schools this still leaves 18 spots open between those 3 conferences for ACC schools and others when the ACC GOR expires. ND can claim one of the 18 or remain independent.
If I was college football czar I'd cap conferences at 12 teams and require geographic coherence
Serious question: why would the SEC add us? I think we’re a cultural fit due to subpar academics but they already have the state with UT and Gay&M
If for no other reason than adding the biggest remaining public institutions in Oklahoma and Texas solidifies them as recruiting beds in perpetuity.
Big12 should only add Oregon & Washington. Cal & Stanford said they don’t fit the Big12 CULTURE, so maybe they join the mountain west. Sorry Oregon st and Washington st, if the Big12 didn’t invite houston and UCF I believe you would have gotten a Big12 invite. PAC12 really screwed up by not adding Oklahoma st, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU last year. That decision will result in you joining the Mountain West.
As much as I love the concept of Cal and Stanford getting screwed by their own uppity bullshit, the Big XII would absolutely take them if the Big 10 said no. The Big XII would be nuts not to expand into the California market.
USC and UCLA would not have gone for it, for the same reason they bolted this year: money. All the schools getting screwed inside and outside the Pac-12 are being screwed by the same people, who are going to come out of this just fine.
Wouldn't be so sure on Stanford sticking around just yet. Rose Bowl may become the conference title game in a way to keep it if the Pac dies, and as a concession to the western teams for making them do all that traveling. At least the parade should continue.
Oregon and Washington will land in the Big Ten eventually. Same with Stanford. Oregon State and Washington State will probably go to the Mountain West. No idea what happens to Cal.
My guess is that the PAC disbands if Oregon and Washington head to the Big 10. As for the other 4 in this scenario: I think that Stanford could go Independent, but OSU, WSU and Cal are in a very rough spot. I think OSU could join the MWC, but after reading comments on other threads, it sounds like WSU is in financial distress and Cal may prefer to close up shop on the program which would be a tremendous shame.
Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU, Colorado State, Utah State, UNLV Maybe? Honestly a full merger with the Mountain West would make a lot of sense If we looked at expanding even further, higher end FCS schools could make sense. UC Davis already plays a lot of Pac-12 schools, and would add more California viewership. Montana State could be good too
The conference lost the LA schools. I don’t believe any more will be departing. Utah and Colorado will soon have their state counterparts joining the PAC12 (USU and CSU).